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Post by catmanjeff on Nov 26, 2021 8:13:08 GMT
Looking at the latest net migration figures out yesterday, 32,000 more people left the UK for the EU than arrived from the EU Immigration as a whole fell by almost 90% It quite obvious that this is being used to stoke fears amongst the electorate. A good distraction from the other messes of this Government. What I find interesting is the all the Government talks about is people at Calais etc, when the root causes for global immigration are escalating - political instability (see Yemen, Afghanistan, Syria), climate catastrophe meaning producing enough food is getting harder, cuts to aid budgets and global economic inequality . Of course, they don't want to talk about that. Instead they want to blame others when in fact the UK does nowhere near enough on support for refugees compared to other countries. Depressing, but highly predictable. ****** Just read the letter from Johnson to Macron. Unbelievably bad megaphone diplomacy. If you called this Government to put a fire out, they would bring buckets of petrol. |
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Post by barbara on Nov 26, 2021 8:34:07 GMT
Alec "Fundamentally though, this remains all about the UK approach to Brexit. Johnson thinks it's a good idea to constantly antagonize our near neighbours because he thinks that bring him a political advantage. Childishness at the extreme."
Politics has always been a battle of hearts vs minds but since Brexit was fought almost entirely on the hearts (Leavers) vs the minds (Remainers) - thus "Take Back Control", "Get Brexit Done", the Tories, but mainly Johnson have discovered that you can win elections too on the almost complete absence of rational argument and detailed policy. This strategy is now applied to all aspects of this government's approach - crime (Lock 'em up) immigration (Send 'em back) the judicial system (enemies of the people) Education (teachers are bad) etc.
So ultimately it's the electorate's fault. The government only do this because people vote for it.( Well only 30 odd% but enough to get an 80 seat majority) So until the mood changes and the public demand policy detail and debate we're stuck with this populist style of government.
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 26, 2021 8:44:56 GMT
Alec
Most of those killed in the channel came from Iraqi Kurdistan, our allies during the gulf wars.
After a 97% + vote in a referendum for independence in 2017 the area was occupied by Iraqi security forces.
It's highly likely that if these people had made it to the UK their status as asylum seekers would ( or at least in a less hostile environment) should have been upheld.
If the UK government allowed asylum seekers to cross the channel by a safe method this tragedy would not have happened.
It's not the French government's fault and it's frankly not down to or possible for the French police to man every meter of the 100+ km potential crossing points 24/7.
If the situation were reversed and hundreds of brown skinned asylum seekers were trying to cross the channel from the UK to France I strongly suspect that those going into a hissy fit about the French would be entirely sanguine about their departure and wouldn't in the remotest chance demand that the UK police service should prevent their departure.
British nationalist hypocrisy and proto fascism at its finest.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Nov 26, 2021 8:57:30 GMT
Good morning all from a truly 'winter is coming' PSRL.
Work is a bit slow atm so it gives me an opportunity to increase my post count.
@ merican
My understanding is that Cornwall was initially under direct Roman control and then became a quasi-independent Romano-British client kingdom, the often preferred option for the Romans in remoter boarder areas of the Empire. Must say I have never come across anyone comparing the greatest PM we have ever had Attlee, with Vortigern. Please elaborate I'm intrigued.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 26, 2021 9:09:19 GMT
Continuing stories about inadequacy of ambulance service to transport people to hospital. caused by ambulances unable to unload people when they get there. Although lots of people are trying to blame this upon covid, it is firstly because we have fewer beds than other omparable health services, and less money spent overall on health so services are overstretched. The service is DESIGNED to hit peak capacity in the winter season. Covid has just been the straw to break the camel's back. It seems likely this will hit voter satisfaction. Just read the letter from Johnson to Macron. Unbelievably bad megaphone diplomacy. If you called this Government to put a fire out, they would bring buckets of petrol. Not disagreeing the letter asks France to act against what is likely its perceived self interest. No French government could accept such a public statement. However, I fancy they used gunpowder to put out the great fire of London? Oil well fires are extinguised using explosives. (though maybe petrol is a mid way compromise which therefore fails both the water extinguishing and the explosive shock options, and therefore is a subtly more apt analogy than I thought) Fundamentally though, this remains all about the UK approach to Brexit. Johnson thinks it's a good idea to constantly antagonize our near neighbours because he thinks that bring him a political advantage. Childishness at the extreme. I dont think its really that. Johnson leads leave and has repeatedly claimed benefits from Brexit, and relies on voters continuing to believe that to stay in power. He cannot admit that brexit has caused an immigration crisis for the UK. He has to blame someone else. It is not childishness but political strategy. |
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Post by shevii on Nov 26, 2021 9:11:03 GMT
@ Steve
Two Tory gains from Labour previously fought on 2018 local election results when Tories were marginally stronger in the polls than they are now. Labour mopped up a couple of previously independent wards which is more difficult to quantify under "special circumstances" (The Wigan by election yesterday was certainly "special circumstances" if you read the Britain Elects preview and even that only tells a bit of the story!).
The pattern continues where Labour underperform their poll ratings as their vote stays at home (last week Liverpool was recording 12% turnouts). But what this means in the circumstances of a General Election is hard to say- Tories get their postal vote out and win on low turnouts in these by-elections while in others LD, Green and independents who put up a fight win but very rarely do Labour get a stonkingly good result.
We can only wait for the political mood at the next election and whether the ABT vote does enough nose holding but my personal view is that as things stand a currently low Labour voter engagement will have some impact even in a General Election- remains to be seen whether that will be significant or not.
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Post by jimjam on Nov 26, 2021 9:13:21 GMT
EOR, and others.
Labour are a Unionist party but the GFA requires that the UK Government would stay neutral in a border poll.
In one respect Haigh saying Lab would stay neutral on a border poll, respecting the GFA, helps with moderate unionists who may feel Labour 'secretly' supports unification.
When Louise Haigh's comments were made earlier in the week the potential implications for Labours' stance re Scotland were clear.
While SLAB support the union and the SDLP are pro unification UKLab have cover of sorts for the apparent contradiction but it is flimsy.
NB) My views diverge from the party but that is irrelevant and not worth spelling out; I write this as I have no wish to get in to a debate but felt I should try to explain the position as I understand it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2021 9:16:10 GMT
FWIW then YG reposted a recent poll of public opinion y'day (fieldwork 12Nov'21, so before the recent event): Who do you think should have the most responsibility for preventing migrants from attempting to cross the English Channel to reach the UK? Overall: France: 27% UK: 9% Both equally: 51% Conservative voters France 45% United Kingdom 7% Both equally 46% Labour voters France 17% United Kingdom 10% Both equally 54% yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/11/12/fba1a/1? |
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Post by wb61 on Nov 26, 2021 9:16:56 GMT
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Post by shevii on Nov 26, 2021 9:30:51 GMT
@ WB61
Britain Elects
@britainelects
·
10h
Lee Chapel North (Basildon) by-election result:
LAB: 39.8% (-12.8)
CON: 34.8% (+8.4)
BCRP: 11.9% (+11.9)
REFUK: 8.6% (+8.6)
LDEM: 4.9% (-16.2)
Labour HOLD.
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Post by chrisaberavon on Nov 26, 2021 9:31:03 GMT
Last night's council by election results which I have seen suggest Lab gains in some of their own places such as Lancaster City Council, but swings against in 2019 Tory areas such as Wirral.
Must be a comfort after the apparent wobbling by the PM, most voters probably do not pay much attention to the ebbs and flows of politics
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2021 9:31:49 GMT
YG also recently reposted some GB polling on NI. From twitter link from 23Nov: 'Labour's shadow Northern Ireland secretary has said..' you can find an Apr'20 article Brits increasingly don’t care whether Northern Ireland remains in UKyougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/04/22/brits-increasingly-dont-care-whether-northern-irelAlso note the GFA conditions to hold a border whilst a bit 'vague' on process are nowhere near being met[1] and although 'choppy' then the most recent polling has shown a drop in 'Yes' support (if anyone wishes to cover the wording differences or provide explanation for the wide variance between Lucid Talks (7% lead for 'No') and University of Liverpool poll (29% lead for 'No') then please do). I won't indulge in 'theories' for why LAB decided to bring it up. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Opinion_pollingIf anyone has other relevant polling then please post. Despite the 'excitement' in some press about Lord Frost possibly triggering A16 then I don't think we've seen any polling on GB public opinion - Occam's razor probably being that Brits increasingly don’t care (ie Bored of Brexit and minimal interest in NI - see polling for evidence to substantiate that) and polling companies focus on more salient issues when polling GB opinion. If anyone cares to explain an alternative explanation, please do. [1] The Good Friday Agreement states that "the Secretary of State" should call a referendum "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland." |
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Post by somerjohn on Nov 26, 2021 9:33:40 GMT
I think that council announcement is garbled. It cites an 11% turnout in an allegedly no-contest election. Unless the result has been nullified for some reason (in which case I'd have thought the council would mention that), I think the Britain Elects tweet looks more credible:
Britain Elects @britainelects · 10h Lee Chapel North (Basildon) by-election result: LAB: 39.8% (-12.8) CON: 34.8% (+8.4) BCRP: 11.9% (+11.9) REFUK: 8.6% (+8.6) LDEM: 4.9% (-16.2) Labour HOLD. BCRP: Basildon Community Residents Party Chgs. w/ 2018 |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Nov 26, 2021 9:42:59 GMT
Not sure if anyone else has seen/posted this. www.independent.co.uk/topic/tony-blairPersonally, I don't think he does Starmer or the Labour party any favours atm. Being a firm believer in the parliamentary road to socialism I accept that Labour should appeal to the centre in order to get into power - but if that does not lead ultimately to equal distribution of wealth and greater access to champagne, then really why bother. On the 'woke' front, I would counter that if LOC parties had always adopted such an approach most women would remain second class citizens with a place firmly based in the kitchen, homosexuality would probably still be illegal and we would most likely still have the death penalty. This is where I have always had an issue with people saying Blair is a liberal - he isn't (apart from more on the economic policy/redistribution front). |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Nov 26, 2021 9:53:44 GMT
Looking at my local area, in the last couple of weeks most of our bus services have been cancelled. The bus company says they cannot afford to run them as they are making a loss, even with the Local Authority subsidy. Apparently fuel price increases and the difficulty of recruiting enough drivers for the wage paid are the reasons. The council say they cannot afford to pay any more subsidy as their central Government grant has been cut by so much in the last decade
At the same time we had a shortage of refuse drivers/staff, which resulted in bins not being collected for a couple of weeks in some areas. The Council has just announced they will now collect black wheelie bin (general rubbish) every 3 weeks instead of every 2 weeks. They say it is for environmental reasons, but I am aware the refuse firms are also having problems recruiting staff
I cannot believe these problems are just in my area and coupled with the shortages of Labour across many sectors I wonder how long before the Government wake up and smell the coffee
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Post by catmanjeff on Nov 26, 2021 10:00:03 GMT
On the 'woke' front, I would counter that if LOC parties had always adopted such an approach most women would remain second class citizens with a place firmly based in the kitchen, homosexuality would probably still be illegal and we would most likely still have the death penalty. This is where I have always had an issue with people saying Blair is a liberal - he isn't (apart from more on the economic policy/redistribution front). About 95% of what is described as 'woke' looks like basic equality to me. Most of what I see with people being unhappy with woke looks like people being unhappy at losing inherent privileges they benefit from. Example - that clown of a Tory MP complaining about Dr Who being a woman yesterday, and the 'lack of male role models'. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2021 10:00:47 GMT
I accept that Labour should appeal to the centre in order to get into power - but if that does not lead ultimately to equal distribution of wealth and greater access to champagne, then really why bother. A couple of suggestions why bother :- * "equal" distribution of wealth would be inimical to entrepreneurialism , and thus economic growth. So it is not economically or politically attractive. * It is difficult to see how you can win a GE in UK without broad appeal. And if you can't win GEs you can't have a Labour Government. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 26, 2021 10:13:53 GMT
The problem of declining bus services ought to be very worrying for any country trying to cut CO2 emissions. An elderly friend remarked not so long ago that had she realised what was going to happen to public transport, she would have learnt to drive. My vehicle doesnt get used much, and its a terible waste of resources all these vehicles which cost CO2 to produce just sitting about mostly unused. Public transport also needs to be cheaper than private - which is of course a function of buses not running about empty most of the time. Public transport works in London and you can effectively get from place to place with negligble delay waiting for the next vehicle. But thats because everyone uses a service which meets their needs.
The government has chosen to go the route of rising wages for manual workers. It has deliberately cut off foreign labour and created a shortage. Its obvious this will draw labour away from the lowest paid occupations. At the same time it has slashed spending on local services, which include these critical transport and home care services. I dont see how it plans too reconcile expenditure cuts with rising wages. Especially since it has been doing this for ten years without a labour intervention to slow or reverse the trend. It is much easier for con to be the party of reduced tax and spend if labour get in from time to time to reverse this. So that con can keep claiming their policy works without ever having to face the problems it causes. This time con came in on a wave of austerity, which will now meld seamlessly into brexit and covid austerity. People are starting to notice this is causing a problem. Ambulances queuing to unload, for one. Not that labour seem to be really challenging austerity.
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Post by jimjam on Nov 26, 2021 10:14:43 GMT
''Power without principle is barren, but principle without power is futile'' Guess who?
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2021 10:24:30 GMT
lululemon @" This is where I have always had an issue with people saying Blair is a liberal " Well he says he is. The actual quote is this :- "We should openly embrace liberal, tolerant but common-sense positions on the “culture” issues, and emphatically reject the “wokeism” of a small though vocal minority." It is contained in a summary to this analysis of Labour's electoral prospects :- institute.global/policy/red-walls-red-bridges-rebuilding-labours-voter-coalitionI would be interested to hear reaction to it from LOC contributors here. |
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Post by hireton on Nov 26, 2021 10:29:57 GMT
In the meantime we have shortages of labour in large numbers of sectors, there is a solution to that staring us in the face[/quote]
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Post by neila on Nov 26, 2021 10:35:59 GMT
Mercian,
It is interesting to note that modern genetic research has identified, for the UK at least, that incoming populations like the Romans, Angles, Jutes and Normans (and even to some extent the Celts before them) didn't necessarily overwhelm the indigenous population. They brought their culture, which was bolted onto / superimposed upon the existing culture, and became the "ruling class". But genetically the population were largely unaffected. Even today, for example, people living in Devon have unique genetic profiles that are set them apart not just from the rest of England but from Cornwall too.
I am not sure whether this fact makes me more or less accommodating of migration. To some extent, genetic change is the least of my concerns. I am not especially concerned if by 2400 everyone in the UK has black skin. I am more concerned with population levels and, to a lesser extent, cultural continuity. I want the overall population to be static or gently declining. And I want what is best of British culture to survive the sands of time (modified gradually, but not shattered utterly).
A Britain made up of Lenny Henrys, Rishi Sunaks and Emma Raducanus is absolutely fine by me.
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Post by catmanjeff on Nov 26, 2021 10:37:34 GMT
" We should openly embrace liberal, tolerant but common-sense positions on the “culture” issues, and emphatically reject the “wokeism” of a small though vocal minority." It is contained in a summary to this analysis of Labour's electoral prospects :- institute.global/policy/red-walls-red-bridges-rebuilding-labours-voter-coalitionI would be interested to hear reaction to it from LOC contributors here. This phrase by Blair is to me third-way babble. Vacuous managerialism. He doesn't define "liberal, tolerant but common-sense positions on the “culture” issues", nor "the “wokeism” of a small though vocal minority". Both are loose, meaningless phrases. They are lazy constructs. Much like his principles when he was in office. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Nov 26, 2021 10:40:30 GMT
@ Jim Jam & colin Well the PSRL is making strides towards the socialist uptopia we all secretly wish for in our heart of hearts. And when people experience its benefits they wont want to go back.  On a serious note, colin your comment relating to entrepreneurialism can be challenged on a number of points. Most of the greatest advances in technology and economic development have not bee driven by 'entrepreneurialism' in the modern capitalist term that I think you are using. A recent example is Berners-Lee and the WWW (the list from history is endless). Also developments in AI, modern marketing techniques, production structures etc could theoretically make the type of economic planning attempted in 20th century possible. The possibility of access to resources beyond our planet also helps open up the possibility of resolving the scarcity issue. Ian M Banks in his Culture novels envisaged a society along these lines. But you don't necessarily have to be socialist to think this is a possibility - in the Star Trek universe (in the initial versions anyway) society had moved away from using money. |
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Post by jayblanc on Nov 26, 2021 10:45:06 GMT
I think that council announcement is garbled. It cites an 11% turnout in an allegedly no-contest election. Unless the result has been nullified for some reason (in which case I'd have thought the council would mention that), I think the Britain Elects tweet looks more credible:
Britain Elects @britainelects · 10h Lee Chapel North (Basildon) by-election result: LAB: 39.8% (-12.8) CON: 34.8% (+8.4) BCRP: 11.9% (+11.9) REFUK: 8.6% (+8.6) LDEM: 4.9% (-16.2) Labour HOLD. BCRP: Basildon Community Residents Party Chgs. w/ 2018 Very dubious for Britain Elects to publish in this way (as part of a supposed 'Super Thursday' of very low-turnout/non-contest early term replacement by-elections). This was basically an administrative procedure to replace a councillor retiring for health reasons only months into his term with a nominated candidate, the paper-candidates agreeing to not contest for the appointment, but an actual statutory election still having to be gone through. Only about a thousand ballots were issued, and it's so insignificant not even the local papers reported on the 'election' that was happening. The returning officer announcement that Basildon Council has published is that there was 'no-contest'. This is like getting a turkey sandwich from Tescos, and using it to predict what a Christmas Lunch would be. People are latching onto that -12.8 figure without any indication of the circumstances, or even acknowledging it is not a formal election result because it was not a contested election. |
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Post by wb61 on Nov 26, 2021 10:45:15 GMT
@ Jim Jam
TB as I recall
And Nye Bevan "The language of priorities is the religion of Socialism … The argument is about power … because only by the possession of power can you get the priorities correct."
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2021 10:46:52 GMT
lululemon
@" But you don't necessarily have to be socialist to think this is a possibility - in the Star Trek universe (in the initial versions anyway) society had moved away from using money. "
Go for it. Could be a vote winner.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Nov 26, 2021 10:47:49 GMT
@ colin
'Well he says he is. The actual quote is this' - not everyone believes what the man says for obvious reasons. In 1994 he said he was a socialist. For a long time I was an admirer of Blair, but primarily because he won three elections. Over the year's I have increasingly started to agree with the likes of Peter Oborne as to the nature of the man
My view on Blair is that his thinking is much more driven by Christianity, which has become increasingly prominent as he gets older.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Nov 26, 2021 10:52:47 GMT
Colin
@ Go for it. Could be a vote winner.
It would be a landslide, they should do some polling on it!
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Post by wb61 on Nov 26, 2021 10:53:50 GMT
Nye Bevan quotes about others are generally cutting, but I liked this one because it could be applied to many of our current political establishment found at the edges of the extreme of both left and right wing thinking.
"He is a man suffering from petrified adolescence."
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