19-Nov-2021 : CON 36 / LAB 34 / GREEN 10 / LIBDEM 7

[paulnish]

I am one of those sad people who feel proud that people want to come and to work in the uk.

I am sure I have read that Merkel’s generosity as few years ago has now resulted in a higher German GDP.

[barbara]

This is worth a read and even more impactful when you remember that Oborne wrote for the Daily Telegraph, Mail and The Spectator so not a typical leftie. It only goes up to February 2020 but he intends to carry on to bring it up to date.

boris-johnson-lies.com/

[jib]

Nov 25, 2021 18:20:57 GMT paulnish said:

I am one of those sad people who feel proud that people want to come and to work in the uk.

I am sure I have read that Merkel’s generosity as few years ago has now resulted in a higher German GDP.

A lot of the people who are desperately making the crossing are the middle - professional-classes of the nation they are fleeing, and are likely to become net contributors to society if given the chance.

So yes, an element of truth there.

[barbara]

Nov 25, 2021 18:27:42 GMT jib said:

Nov 25, 2021 18:20:57 GMT paulnish said:

I am one of those sad people who feel proud that people want to come and to work in the uk.

I am sure I have read that Merkel’s generosity as few years ago has now resulted in a higher German GDP.

A lot of the people who are desperately making the crossing are the middle - professional-classes of the nation they are fleeing, and are likely to become net contributors to society if given the chance.

So yes, an element of truth there.

And also the most dynamic and enterprising. t's usually claimed that America's amazing success in the middle of the 20th Century was due to all the immigrants pouring in in the 19th and early 20th century.

[Deleted]

Nov 25, 2021 18:20:57 GMT paulnish said:

I am one of those sad people who feel proud that people want to come and to work in the uk.

I am sure I have read that Merkel’s generosity as few years ago has now resulted in a higher German GDP.

I too feel proud that people want to come and work in UK. Plenty of info on internet that immigration creates a net gain to GDP (which should be adjusted for per capita) but it's not just about GDP. A reminder of Germany's 'open door' policy from 2015:

Refugee crisis: Germany creaks under strain of open door policy

www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/08/refugee-crisis-germany-creaks-under-strain-of-open-door-policy

Fortunately AfD has slipped back in VI and seats since but elsewhere in Europe the Far-Right, anti-immigration parties attract a significant level of support (and in France the presidential election is between Right and Far-Right). See previous posts.

Levels of immigration dropped during C19 and it looks like they are going to rise rapidly in the near future. Climate crisis will likely also start to have a major affect in the not too distant future. 

[leftieliberal]

It's remarkable how people who know Boris best also dislike him the most. Here is Peter Oborne's (revived) web site. boris-johnson-lies.com/

The Guardian says about it:

"Oborne launched a version of the website soon after Johnson became prime minister, but he abandoned work on it after the 2019 general election. After using crowdfunding to raise money, Oborne was able to hire staff and the new version is more impressive. It is still unfinished – it only covers untrue or misleading statements made by Johnson and his ministers up to February 2020 – but the entries are well researched, with extensive links explaining why comments have been labelled as false.

"Oborne says the project will be “like painting the Forth Bridge”. He explains: “The task can never be completed because he and his ministers are constantly producing more examples.”

"In a mission statement, Oborne explains why he feels so strongly about politicians who lie (he has written two books on the subject, focusing on Tony Blair and Johnson). He also explains why he uses a particularly wide definition of lying, covering statements which are “reckless as to the truth”. "

I do have a higher regard for anyone, regardless of their political background, who insists on politicians telling the truth (or at least not uttering 'terminological inexactitudes' as Winston Churchill coined the phrase in 1906).

[Danny]

news today seems to be suggesting that of cross channel migrants cases processed so far, almost all are granted assylum.

Which explains why the UK is using the tactic of being deathly slow in processing applications as the only way to 'reject' them. And why allowing people in France to apply before getting here is unlikey to be useful from government perspective, since it would presumably lead to hundreds of thousands of accepted claims.

Menwhile sovereign Britain is seeking to station border enforcement officers in France. Maybe next we could have advisors in the offices of all French ministers and MPS, and special agents in all their police stations instructing them what to do. Maybe the French shoud be paying us a huge fee for these services running their contry. Perhaps formally acknowledge the British claim to the throne of France and that France is really a territory of Britain. Especially Calais.

[Deleted]

TW

@" it's not just about GDP. "

Absolutely right :-

inews.co.uk/news/swedens-backlash-to-mass-migration-provokes-political-shift-to-the-right-and-new-laws-to-tackle-ghetto-crime-1315526

[shevii]

Can't see the Kantar posted:


Britain Elects
@britainelects
·
9h
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 39% (-)
LAB: 36% (+2)
LDEM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-3)

via
@kantar
, 18 - 22 Nov
Chgs. w/ Oct

Seems to me that we are now into the tiniest of Labour leads (this one an exception) but possibly stabilised for now onthe basis of the weekly Yougov & R&W showing little change. Kantar movements are old news as they publish once a month.

Usually when Johnson has a wobbly week the jokes go round about Con (+2) and the public seems to be oblivious, but he's not had the best of weeks again so interesting to see if this hits either his or Tories ratings further which could mean patience wearing thin and no more get out of jail cards.

@ Mark- I'm enjoying the format of the new site and very much appreciating all the new UKPR lurkers who were unable to post. Just wondering if the page sizes can be increased a bit, so we get more posts per page as too much of next page scrolling for my liking. Also will there be a new thread for 1st December? This will make it more obvious where people can post if it is a "December 21 polling thread or similar.

[steamdrivenandy]

Nov 25, 2021 18:15:24 GMT jib said:

Nov 25, 2021 16:24:06 GMT leftieliberal said:

Fifty posts gets you to junior member; not that I would encourage any meaningless posts just to get your numbers up.

Excellent. Something to aim for there, a mark of status and authority.

Or just something to highlight bombastic verbacity 

[paulnish]

Colin - it is not just about gdp.

Yes I agree with you.

It has to be managed properly, with resources properly allocated to the local councils.

You must forgive me. I live in Brighton, where we are all kkkcrazy.

But at the same time we are all ttttolerant.

[Mark]

steamdrivenandy : Done. See my post in the 'what the board should look like' thread.

[davwel]

As a change from debating what to do about asylum seekers, I am making a quick foray back to claims on numbers of young trees being planted in Scotland, that I wrote about 3 or so days ago.

I thought the total estimate put out on an SNP hand-delivered message was likely to be an under-estimate, and I put in figures for saplings being produced and sold yearly from nurseries here. What I didn`t allow for, and didn`t know of then, was that we are now importing trees from foreign nurseries into Scotland.

inews.co.uk/news/consumer/christmas-tree-shortage-2021-price-why-pay-more-british-growers-1315491

So c. 0.6 million Xmas trees yearly coming in for growing on 2500 acres of Aberdeenshire farmland, is featured in this link on a Danish enterprise.

But all these planting estimates suffer from the totals not being broken down into amenity hardwoods, conservation/biodiversity hardwoods, conifers for Xmas trees, conifers for pulp and conifers to produce good-quality "green logs" for sawing-up for the construction industry. This name "green" has long been used, before Green parties became important, but producing the logs in the UK rather than importing very heavy logs is Green with a different meaning.

[oldnat]

VI polldrums in the YG Full Scottish that tw linked to earlier. Tables not up yet, but summary of approval ratings released

Sturgeon +12
Sarwar -1
Harvie -8
Slater -8
Cole-Hamilton -16 (but most have no view)
Starmer -35
Ross -38
Johnson -62

[oldnat]

A WHO analysis has estimated the number of deaths directly averted in people 60 years and older as a result of COVID-19 vaccination in the European Region, December 2020 to November 2021.

www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.47.2101021

It seems likely that different approaches to vaccination will have played a part. Governments that approved the strategy recommended by their health advisers will, naturally, claim the credit, while their oppositions will largely ignore them, as will governments who followed advice that turned out to be poorer, or ignored better advice. Such is politics.

[mercian]

Davwel
"Nobody has suggested that <B>ALL</B> the populations of Africa and the Middle East can be accommodated in Europe, just a very small percent of those whose lives are in danger."

But how do we know that? I understand that many of these folks destroy their papers so in many cases we wouldn't even know what country they came from. What I don't understand is why if these boat people have money (and apparently they have to pay the criminals) they don't choose a safer route? e.g. Come here on holiday or as a 'student' by ferry or plane and then apply for asylum.

[Deleted]

colin

The Swedish situation is much more complicated - yes, they have a pretty strong anti-immigration party, but they have always had one (it is one of the European countries where openly Nazi parties can legally exist), but it didn't matter until the centre hadn't fragmented.

On the other hand, they provide resources (both state and charity) to explain the migrants of the function of elections, rules, etc. I watched one (I lived in Sweden for 9 months in 1987-88 and as long as it subtitled I can still get the meaning) and it was impressive.

There is also a high level fragmentation of the migrant population there. Indeed, they have ghetto-rhetoric (but it is more common in Denmark), but they also have a big cluster of Syrian small business network (quite entrepreneurial).

[oldnat]

Nov 25, 2021 21:47:49 GMT mercian said:

I understand that many of these folks destroy their papers

We all have a tendency to "understand" things to be as we would want them to be, and someone has said they are.

Whether there is actual evidence that such is the case is another matter. I'm not being particularly critical of you! Sensibly you didn't claim the presumption to be fact, unlike more ardent enthusiasts for a particular stance.

I've seen that claim too, and haven't bothered to research its accuracy (life is too short - especially at our age!), but have you?

[jib]

Fast action to ban flights from Southern Africa due to the new variant.

An early grip on this and an own goal averted.

[mercian]

ON
One thing that struck me as odd about your WHO link was that it separated out UK (England) and UK (Scotland) which I can understand, as they have separate policies, but not Wales and NI who also do. And what about the German States? Don't they all have variations in Covid policy? Is the WHO preparing for Scottish independence?

[oldnat]

Mercian

I have no idea as to how WHO selected their countries/territories, if they did select. Might have been that not all countries/territories submitted data?

[mercian]

ON
No it's obviously a sinister plot by Scots employed at the WHO, inspired by Wee Jimmie Krankie herself. 😃

[oldnat]

Mercian

Also, to get a complete picture, a more detailed analysis would be required. Did Iceland work more thoroughly to vaccinate the over 60s compared with Norway, and have fewer saved deaths among the 50-59 cohort than Norway? I dunno.

My comment concerned the politics of how published data is used (or not used) by governments and media to construct a favourable/unfavourable narrative.

[alec]

jib - not something you hear from me often, but great credit to the UK government for the fast action on red listing S Africa and others. This variant was only identified on Tuesday, and the red list comes into force on Friday, with recent arrivals being actively traced as well, so this is clearly a sign that Johnson isn't in charge. Just as well we don't want a new trade deal with SA.

Seriously though, well done for finally acting quickly on something. Experts all seem genuinely worried about this one, and one thing we've learned during this pandemic is that you move fast and you move early, and if you wait for all the evidence you're too late.

[oldnat]

Mercian

Sturgeon does have close relationships with the governments of Iceland and Norway, so it is more likely to have been a Nordic plot!

[davwel]

@ Mercian

You make a reasonable point about possible routes to reach the UK for those fearing for their lives, but have money. Coming for a holiday IMHO is more likely than coming as a student - I doubt if they will be allowed to enter without having secured a university or college place. Having a son in a university post that deals with admissions, the offers are not made without good evidence submitted.

[oldnat]

Nov 25, 2021 22:34:09 GMT davwel said:

Coming for a holiday IMHO is more likely than coming as a student

I don't know the rules, but isn't a visa required to enter the UK, for any reason, from a number of states, and immigration staff have reportedly turned down such applications - even for those attending international conferences etc, due to a suspicion that they intend to remain in the UK?

What are the chances of a displaced Syrian, Libyan or Afghan getting a visa to come to the UK on holiday?

[mercian]

Davwel
No doubt you know more about it than me, but I did a bit of teaching at a FE college about 20 years ago, and there were a couple of students enrolled who never turned up, and they were from abroad. It's possible that FE colleges have lower checks than universities, and of course there are fake colleges though some were clamped down on a few years ago if I remember correctly.
But whether for a holiday or otherwise, why don't these folks take that route? It would probably be cheaper than paying a people-smuggler to send them off in a rubber dinghy. Or get a ferry to Ireland from France or Spain and walk across the border. There must be a reason, but I don't know what it is.

[mercian]

ON
OK about the visa thing, but what about the Irish route? As Eire is in the EU presumably they can just go there once in France and then walk into NI?

[oldnat]

Mercian

Again, you would have to check the rules, but Ireland isn't in the Schengen Zone. It's in the CTA with UK, CI and IoM. While each has it's own immigration policy, they are broadly in line. The confusion in Brexiteer minds as to EU and Schengen is not untypical.