|
|
Post by Martin on Dec 25, 2021 12:22:25 GMT
Merry Christmas everybody, hope you were all good this year and got everything you asked for.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 25, 2021 12:43:15 GMT
Merry Christmas to everyone on this board! Bored to death with Covid so I'm staying out of these discussions. Should you genuinely drop dead of boredom I wonder if that will go down in the stats as a covid-related death? Couldnt quite believe the Danny post that almost immediately (and ironically) followed yours: ”Happy Xmas everybody, covid, covid, covid, covid, covid....” (that was as far as I got - which was actually further than usual due to the unexpected opening.) Have a good day everyone, off for a festive walk on the Desmesnes in Barnard Castle (beauty spot...) with my wife and our beautiful Rosie and Daisie. |
|
|
|
Post by robert on Dec 25, 2021 12:55:09 GMT
Merry Christmas one and all. Commiserations to those whose plans have been upset. Quiet one for us this year with No. 2 daughter and her partner, no children. They all arrive next week when No.1 daughter and family all turn up for New Year......maybe!
|
|
|
|
Post by eor on Dec 25, 2021 14:56:35 GMT
Voting news! Gustav Holst narrowly holds the ultramarginal Midwinter constituency, defeating former incumbent Harold Darke. And the Returning Officer is about to tell us whether in these COVIDy times the electorate prefer their nights Silent or Holy... win.classicfm.com/nations-favourite-carol-2021/Merry Christmas one and all and I hope those with disrupted plans are faring well. |
|
|
|
Post by davwel on Dec 25, 2021 17:46:57 GMT
Thanks for that link EoR.
Perhaps you could confirm that "the nation" in this voting means England - it certainly doesn`t look like Scotland. So it`s ignorant of Classic FM to word it as the nation.
They also aren`t helpful in not naming the tune when there are 2-plus possibilities commonly heard, as in Away in a manger, Angels from the realms, The Apple Tree - maybe our habits in the NE are influenced by a US influx.
But I was pleased to see the list, as it confirms the suspicion I have that King`s Cambridge is long out-of-step with what they sing to While Shepherds. There are so many good CM tunes, so why use a C16 one, and not even in its original rhythm. Maybe next year the excellent new choir director will go on his basic sense and let us enjoy a tune that they would have sung in King`s 200-250 years ago instead as shunning that era - but possibly that is too Methodistic for some English middle-class Anglicans.
|
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 25, 2021 18:25:37 GMT
Merry Christmas to everyone on this board! Bored to death with Covid so I'm staying out of these discussions. Should you genuinely drop dead of boredom I wonder if that will go down in the stats as a covid-related death? Couldnt quite believe the Danny post that almost immediately (and ironically) followed yours: ”Happy Xmas everybody, covid, covid, covid, covid, covid....” (that was as far as I got - which was actually further than usual due to the unexpected opening.) Have a good day everyone, off for a festive walk on the Desmesnes in Barnard Castle (beauty spot...) with my wife and our beautiful Rosie and Daisie. Covid is killing people in lots of different ways, so yes, boredom may be one of them!  |
|
|
|
Post by alec on Dec 25, 2021 22:37:26 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 25, 2021 23:30:48 GMT
And it will get worse and worse, until the blockheads are finally convinced. |
|
|
|
Post by guymonde on Dec 26, 2021 0:55:23 GMT
And it will get worse and worse, until the blockheads are finally convinced. Some will never be convinced - it's a religious matter. |
|
|
|
Post by eor on Dec 26, 2021 2:12:02 GMT
Thanks for that link EoR. Perhaps you could confirm that "the nation" in this voting means England - it certainly doesn`t look like Scotland. So it`s ignorant of Classic FM to word it as the nation. I have no informed clarity to offer on this point. I strongly suspect that, to your enduring disapproval, they are using "the nation" to refer to the UK rather than any particular part thereof. Yes, that's a curious problem with a poll like this - whilst there are undoubtedly variations in common use for any number of well-known carols, I do wonder how many people would be aware that the one they have always sung is different to that which others might readily recognise. There is also I suspect a degree of internal influence - whilst Classic FM typically play multiple recordings of any given carol each December, there is usually one recording played most commonly in a particular year. So by the time people vote, whether this year they've been typically hearing say a choral version of O Holy Night or a Pavarotti recording of it, that might cause it to have resonated differently. Also I suppose it's a bit like compiling charts of the popularity of given names - people who compile such data must exercise subjective judgement as to at what stage a variation in spelling makes for a distinct name to be tabulated in its own right, and so here they have to decide where the kind of differences you allude to make for a distinct version of a carol, as opposed to the same carol commonly performed in different ways. I suspect King's in particular are somewhat beholden to the (perceived) expectations of their audience. The constant rotation through many venues for eg Midnight Mass allows a degree of licence in the selection and order of carols sung, whereas a Director who decided to start the Christmas Eve broadcast from King's other than with a young soloist leading Once in Royal David's City would be...courageous indeed. I'd find it fascinating to be able to see demographic data behind a poll like this one - not just for the variation in preferences in different areas of the UK (some of which might be interestingly localised) but also the variation with age, denominative identification and so on. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,336
|
Post by Danny on Dec 26, 2021 7:48:51 GMT
Zoe report yesterday showed R for London down from 1.5 to 1.4.
Cases amongst 20-29 age group slowing.
Amongst others it's rising so await with interest what that might bring. The answer could be nothing if vaccination and infection have done their stuff and made everyone immune to serious disease. There is no evidence they have not, and no evidence the booster campaign achieved anything.
It will be interesting to see if the outbreak in young adults now switches to other age groups, or whether deprived of them sustaining the outbreak it dies down for all.
What this does illustrate is that thus far claims of a huge return to deaths have proved unfounded. The big initial rise of omicron has caused nothing of consequence. Though anyone who has had omicron will have improved their personal immune situation better than having a booster.
|
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 26, 2021 9:19:22 GMT
Danny boy, why ponder Covid matters so gloomily on this the best day of the year. Boxing Day game at Villa Park today has defied Covid and I spot two Christmas Day polls, published late yesterday, giving Labour 7 and 8% leads.
Tis the season to be jolly my good intentioned friend. Covid is amongst us I know, but with Chelsea in town and polls indicating a national mood growing steadily more incumbent disillusioned, I'm determined to dwell on gathering glad tidings and spreading goodwill.
I hope everyone had a good Christmas, by the way.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2021 9:39:07 GMT
ST. two page spread on Focaldata Po ll.
25000 people Dec.1_21.
Labour majority 26 seats.
|
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Dec 26, 2021 9:55:49 GMT
RIP Desmond Tutu
Had the privilege to hear him speak at an anti apartheid rally back in the day and one of the best speakers I have ever heard- full of warmth and compassion and made me giggle with one of his quotes which was something like "now, I'm a Christian but unlike many other Christians I actually believe in Christ"!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2021 10:03:13 GMT
"Nearly 25,000 people were asked about their voting intentions, and the results give the first detailed insight into the public’s perception of Johnson’s handling of the sleaze scandals engulfing his party.
The findings of a constituency-by-constituency poll conducted between December 1 and 21 suggest Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, would win a general election with a 26-seat majority. Johnson would lose his seat of Uxbridge & South Ruislip, the first sitting prime minister to be ejected from parliament.
Five other cabinet ministers, including Alok Sharma, the Cop26 president, and George Eustice, the environment secretary, would also lose their seats, according to the survey by Focaldata.
The poll was taken over a three-week period in which Johnson suffered a damaging backbench rebellion, a by-election defeat in a seat the Tories had held for nearly 200 years, revelations of illicit parties held in Downing Street last Christmas and a surge in Omicron cases.
The new poll put Labour on 40 per cent and the Tories on 32 per cent. It predicted Labour would win 338 seats and the Conservatives 237. This would represent the Conservatives’ lowest haul since Michael Howard led the party in the 2005 general election.
The Scottish National Party would remain the dominant party in Scotland, with 48 of the 59 seats, in what will be interpreted as a vote of confidence in Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister.
The Liberal Democrats, who have celebrated two shock by-election victories this year, first in Chesham & Amersham in June and then in North Shropshire this month, would fail to make further progress against the so-called blue wall, according to the poll. It predicted Sir Ed Davey’s party would win 11 seats, the same as in 2019.
Labour would make its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would be expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.
His party was also forecast to surge in London, claiming a further 10 seats from the Conservatives, including Chingford & Woodford Green, which is held by Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former work and pensions secretary, and Kensington.
Labour would experience an urban revival outside the capital as well, taking a further 63 seats that were won by the Conservatives in 2019 and 2017. These seats include those in larger towns such as Reading, Milton Keynes, Northampton, Stevenage and High Wycombe."
Sunday Times today
|
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 26, 2021 10:20:02 GMT
ST. two page spread on Focaldata Po ll. 25000 people Dec.1_21. Labour majority 26 seats. I know this may be a little premature, but do you think this is curtain measuring and removal van booking time for Sir Keir now? It may save him time and money as Mr Rising Price is back and things may cost a lot more in 2024?? |
|
jib
Member
Posts: 2,993
Member is Online
|
Post by jib on Dec 26, 2021 10:20:37 GMT
colinCertainly an interesting poll there. This does seem like a deep malaise for the Tory party, and it's going to be massively challenging for them to turn things around. The worry for them is that Labour aren't having to do much to be ahead, and the Tories are scoring own goals like cancelling HS2, sleaze etc. If Labour reveal a progressive centrist policy agenda, they may well end up much further ahead in 2022.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2021 10:23:06 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2021 10:25:23 GMT
This does seem like a deep malaise for the Tory party, and it's going to be massively challenging for them to turn things around. " Focaldata @focaldatahq · 22 Dec We've run a fresh poll to find out if the results we saw in our poll 2 weeks ago (e.g. big Lab lead) were caused by strong (but temporary) public anger in response to the govt. staff party revelations, or whether they indicated a more permanent shift. It looks like the latter." Twitter |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2021 10:28:46 GMT
I know this may be a little premature, but do you think this is curtain measuring and removal van booking time for Sir Keir now? I think there might be one new resident at No 10 before Starmer's curtain preferences are on display. Hope so anyway ! |
|
|
|
Post by somerjohn on Dec 26, 2021 10:45:04 GMT
As pasting large chunks of newspaper coverage of their polls seems acceptable boxing day fare, here's a bigger paste of what Opinium finds has happened to opinions of brexit a year on. Seems remainers' opinions haven't changed much, but many brexit voters have become disillusioned after a period of maintaining belief. There's still a core of true believers, of course, with presumably those who were never that committed being the first to abandon ship. More erosion to come, I'm sure, but probably most of the low hanging fruit has fallen to remain already.
More than six out of 10 voters believe Brexit has either gone badly or worse than they expected – a year after the UK left the EU, according to an anniversary poll for the Observer.
The Opinium survey – coming a week after the minister in charge of Brexit, Lord Frost, resigned from Boris Johnson’s government – also found that 42% of people who voted Leave in 2016 had a negative view of how Brexit had turned out so far.
26% of Leave supporters said it had gone worse than they expected, while 16% of those who voted for Brexit said they had expected it to go badly and had been proved right.
Among people who voted Remain, 86% said it had gone badly or worse than they expected. Overall, just 14% of all voters said Brexit had gone better than expected.
Adam Drummond, of Opinium, said the most striking finding was that Leavers were now more hesitant about the virtues of Brexit than previously.
“For most of the Brexit process any time you’d ask a question that could be boiled down to ‘is Brexit good or bad?’ you’d have all of the Remainers saying ‘bad’ and all of the Leavers saying ‘good’ and these would cancel each other out,” he said.
“Now what we’re seeing is a significant minority of Leavers saying that things are going badly or at least worse than they expected. While 59% of Remain voters said, ‘I expected it to go badly and think it has’, only 17% of Leave voters said, ‘I expected it to go well and think it has’.
“Only 7% of Remainers think Brexit has gone better than expected versus 26% of Leavers saying it has gone worse than expected. So instead of two uniformly opposing blocs, the Remain bloc are still mostly united on Brexit being bad while the Leave bloc are a bit more split.”
|
|
|
|
Post by jimjam on Dec 26, 2021 10:48:20 GMT
Colin - ''I think there might be one new resident at No 10 before Starmer's curtain preferences are on display.''
Difficult to envisage there not being and after the locals in May next year still most likely imo.
Of course another revelation could make Johnson's position untenable before then.
|
|
|
|
Post by thexterminatingdalek on Dec 26, 2021 10:49:24 GMT
Colin
Thanks for posting the new poll. Even with potentially over two years to go, boundary changes and voter ID to contend with, that is encouraging from where I sit.
It seems the Tories have a choice of strategies, either go quickly before things get worse, or hold on and hope the economy doesn't tank further. Personally, I think getting rid of Johnson will make little difference now, as his purge of moderates has effectively prevented anything but a shift to the UKIP right, which doesn't look to me where the country is headed now. I wouldn't, however, be surprised if he retires on grounds of ill health, and if he expects to lose his seat doubt he'll soldier on beyond the middle of 23.
I've tried to temper my wishful thinking, but haven't bought into the narrative that the Tories couldn't possibly lose all the seats they gained last time, as this poll seems to agree.
The only question is whether things have tipped irretrievably, it feels that way to me, but then I would hope for that, wouldn't I?
|
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 26, 2021 10:56:16 GMT
I know this may be a little premature, but do you think this is curtain measuring and removal van booking time for Sir Keir now? I think there might be one new resident at No 10 before Starmer's curtain preferences are on display. Hope so anyway ! Probably a question for longer pondering and discussion, but how readily and willingly do we think Mr and Mrs Johnson will vacate their newly refurbished accommodation in Downing Street? Are we looking at a bloodless succession and coup with someone like Sunak gliding into the PM role, coronated by a newly united party and following a healing leadership contest? Maybe anointed too by a grateful and magnanimous departing Johnson, still glowing with humble gratitude for being given the opportunity to serve? Or are we envisaging something much more divisive, acrimonious and damaging? Does a seamless passing of the torch sound like the Johnson and Tory party we've grown to love these last few years? I only offer these alternative scenarios to balance the belief/hope of those who see Sunak, astride his white charger, riding to the rescue of a grateful Tory Party and electorate. In other words, I'm throwing in different perspectives on it all. |
|
|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 26, 2021 11:02:02 GMT
Good morning all, its a slightly less grey day than yesterday in the PSRL. One of the saddest thing I have observed since 2010, is the visible signs of the growing number of homeless people in London, and particular women. www.theguardian.com/society/2021/dec/26/homelessness-disproportionately-affects-single-mothers-research-revealsI was watching the Netlfix series 'Maid' which does a good job in highlighting many of the problems and challenges faced by mothers on low incomes. So please on this St Stephen’s day, spare a thought for those less fortunate than you. |
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 26, 2021 11:02:27 GMT
RIP Desmond Tutu Had the privilege to hear him speak at an anti apartheid rally back in the day and one of the best speakers I have ever heard- full of warmth and compassion and made me giggle with one of his quotes which was something like "now, I'm a Christian but unlike many other Christians I actually believe in Christ"! I demur a tad. While I admire Tutu enormously, that piece of rhetoric doesn't sound like one his best. A bit trite and glib for me, designed to get a giggle at an after dinner speech. He was much better than that. |
|
|
|
Post by somerjohn on Dec 26, 2021 11:10:12 GMT
TED: It seems the Tories have a choice of strategies, either go quickly before things get worse, or hold on and hope the economy doesn't tank further.
Trying to put myself in Tory shoes, I think I would wish for a quick lost election, so that Labour can take the flak as all the turkeys come home to roost.
Conversely, from an ABT perspective, I think I would wish for the Tories to hang on in there to reap what they have sown, and face electoral judgement in 2024.
But is there any precedent for a UK government effectively giving up? Not so far as I recall, though McDonald handing over to the National government comes close, I suppose.
Will we reach a similar state of all-pervading crisis and loss of governmental confidence to 1931 in the next few years?
|
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 26, 2021 11:21:21 GMT
TED: It seems the Tories have a choice of strategies, either go quickly before things get worse, or hold on and hope the economy doesn't tank further. Trying to put myself in Tory shoes, I think I would wish for a quick lost election, so that Labour can take the flak as all the turkeys come home to roost. Conversely, from an ABT perspective, I think I would wish for the Tories to hang on in there to reap what they have sown, and face electoral judgement in 2024. But is there any precedent for a UK government effectively giving up? Not so far as I recall, though McDonald handing over to the National government comes close, I suppose. Will we reach a similar state of all-pervading crisis and loss of governmental confidence to 1931 in the next few years? Remember too that there a number of very powerful vested interest groups who won't allow them to give up, nor would they ever be happy that a Tory Government were every contemplating an escape to opposition. These groups will shortly come into play in terms of internal party machinations, I expect. If they're not already, of course. |
|
|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 26, 2021 11:33:15 GMT
Can I move that we abolish the star system - it just re-enforces the patriarchy and the suppression of the working class, as well as having intrinsically militaristic undertones! Hierarchical yes, patriarchal possibly, militaristic not so much. Take away the stars and Paul would have nothing left to strive toward. If no stars, it would be followed by requests for no post numbers, then no names and finally no posts. I don't know about other UKPRers but I'd class this as work, sometimes. But surely we could find a better means for re-warding Paul for his efforts - treats for his two girls perhaps? I very much view my post on here as a Public Service - especially in regards to Steve. Anyway better get back to the kitchen - day three of catering and entertaining the family! |
|
|
|
Post by guymonde on Dec 26, 2021 11:41:38 GMT
I think there might be one new resident at No 10 before Starmer's curtain preferences are on display. Hope so anyway ! Probably a question for longer pondering and discussion, but how readily and willingly do we think Mr and Mrs Johnson will vacate their newly refurbished accommodation in Downing Street? Are we looking at a bloodless succession and coup with someone like Sunak gliding into the PM role, coronated by a newly united party and following a healing leadership contest? Maybe anointed too by a grateful and magnanimous departing Johnson, still glowing with humble gratitude for being given the opportunity to serve? Or are we envisaging something much more divisive, acrimonious and damaging? Does a seamless passing of the torch sound like the Johnson and Tory party we've grown to love these last few years? I only offer these alternative scenarios to balance the belief/hope of those who see Sunak, astride his white charger, riding to the rescue of a grateful Tory Party and electorate. In other words, I'm throwing in different perspectives on it all. January 6th is coming. Somehow I doubt we will see hordes of Proud Boys storming Downing Street and the Palace of Westminster. Perhaps the Gaukeward Squad though... |
|
