oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Dec 24, 2021 0:53:08 GMT
Fascinating information from DNA analysis of ancient bones. www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-59741723I do have some concern as to how such information might be used by ethnic nationalists, in the same way that they misuse history. Some of that is probably laziness, incompetence, and the lack of appropriate descriptors of peoples on the part of the media - as demonstrated by that BBC headline "Ancient mass migration transformed Britons' DNA". It is perfectly reasonable, on one level, to limit the term "Britons" at that stage to many of those in "England & Wales" and to exclude those in "Scotland and Northern Ireland". However, to apply a 17th century border as delineating a boundary between separate genetic groups would be totally insane (therefore appropriate for the BBC!). Such a proposition would be anathema to many Unionists in the current constitutional debates, but might delight the eejits in Siol nan Giadheal or Britain First. In any case, the population of all of Europe, as well as this emerald island archipelago and the rest of the world has experienced numerous waves of immigration that have changed both genetics and culture - mainly for the good. We are all mongrels and much the better for it! |
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Post by statgeek on Dec 24, 2021 0:53:27 GMT
Going to JumpStation it right now. Never heard of it.  For what it's worth, I recommend DuckDuckGo. Less resulty than Google, so I sometimes use it too, but less invasive with ads and privacy stuff. Interestingly you might be surprised how often those who work in education aren’t so keen on people teaching themselves. And my plumber doesn't want me to learn plumbing, cos he has his reasons...I'm not saying you have to be a hacker to learn basic IT security. It's just that some people go "cookie? what's that?" and think for a second and move on. As per 'Jumpstation' above, I'd never heard of it prior to today, and I am or was a bit of a techie for a time, but I didn't start messing with the Internet jargon until the end of the 90s. But I did a quick search for Jumpstation to get the joke. I don't possess a mobile phone, but I could probably bore you for 10 minutes on the differences between 2G, 3G, LTE and so on. But my forte is more hardware configs and OS hardening. I'll let folk search those terms, should they wish to do so. Each to their own.  All hail statgeek. [1] As a noted pedant I disdain calling it an arrow, as it has no shaft. I just call it a dropdown, because it was the only thing that had said function, and some people might see something different from me, for all I know. No hail here, but maybe some sleet tomorrow.  |
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Dec 24, 2021 1:22:11 GMT
Statgeek
Dropdown describes the function very well, but isn't much use to someone who lacks the comprehension of the concept, much less the terminology.
Communicating processes and knowledge (ie teaching) is a skilled operation itself, and would be a useful additional skill for many specialists to learn.
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Dec 24, 2021 1:30:05 GMT
I'm looking forward to those who see significance in local bye-election results predicting the next UK Government from Bransgore & Burley (New Forest)
IND: 44.3% (+44.3)
GRN: 33.0% (+33.0)
CON: 18.5% (-53.7)
LAB: 4.2% (-23.5)
Independent GAIN from Conservative.
Votes cast: 1,393
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2021 2:22:54 GMT
I'm looking forward to those who see significance in local bye-election results predicting the next UK Government from Bransgore & Burley (New Forest) IND: 44.3% (+44.3) GRN: 33.0% (+33.0) CON: 18.5% (-53.7) LAB: 4.2% (-23.5) Independent GAIN from Conservative. Votes cast: 1,393 I think it’s quite clear that the Independents should go home for xmas and prepare for government. |
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,362
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Post by neilj on Dec 24, 2021 6:31:04 GMT
Happy Christmas and a merry New year everyone
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Post by alec on Dec 24, 2021 6:48:43 GMT
steve - allowing around 7 days between case reporting and admissions is generally about right. London admissions are just starting to really surge. I think you need to stop being so blindly optimistic.
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,622
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Post by steve on Dec 24, 2021 6:50:26 GMT
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,622
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Post by steve on Dec 24, 2021 7:02:34 GMT
Alec
"The optimist sees the donut the pessimist sees the hole!"
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2021 7:02:35 GMT
My daughter is ill and tested positive so we have all done PCR tests and cancelled our Christmas guests.
Happy Christmas all.
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Post by alec on Dec 24, 2021 7:17:07 GMT
@tw - "It needs complete compliance from the country at large to work."
That's completely wrong, again. To work completely, it needs complete compliance, but any reduction in contact leads to a reduced R number, as indeed we have found repeatedly throughout.
Once again, it seems, everyone is jumping on the binar bandwagon of lockdown vs no lockdown. Very silly stuff. It's all about a range of measures with multiple different depths and breadths, only a very few of which collectively should be termed as lockdowns.
I thought we had learned this already by now?
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Post by alec on Dec 24, 2021 7:18:48 GMT
nickp - sorry to hear that. I hope you and your family are OK.
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Post by alec on Dec 24, 2021 7:22:57 GMT
Meanwhile, there has been a 50%+ rise in hospital admissions from Omicron in a single day, 195 - 300, deaths up 33% from 18 - 24.
Nothing to worry about, obviously. Just make sure the relatives of the 24 understand that.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 24, 2021 7:38:03 GMT
My daughter is ill and tested positive so we have all done PCR tests and cancelled our Christmas guests. Happy Christmas all. That's rotten Nick. Special Christmas thoughts for you and your family, I hope all keep safe. |
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Post by alec on Dec 24, 2021 7:42:37 GMT
A good summary of the various studies from Gurdisani - the position seems to be:
There is a limited intrinsic reduction in severity between Omicron and Delta
Observed severity is lower, due to higher reinfections
Vaccines remain effective against severe cases
The rapid spread will probably overide the lower severity.
Burns-Murdoch has also plotted hspitalisations for covid (not with covid) and severe cases and concludes that this wave is growing significantly faster than the Delta summer wave. It is starting to trend more towatds last winters Alpha wave, which did overwhelm the NHS.
Just sayin...
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,622
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Post by steve on Dec 24, 2021 7:59:45 GMT
Alec
Wtf are you on about now 195-300 deaths from omicron in a day amongst the 18-24.
There have been less than 30 deaths among the 18-24 age group with covid throughout 2021 and just 14 in total under 21.
The latest available figures from deaths with omicron up to 19th December in the UK is a total of 18 so how derive a figure of 195-300 deaths in any age group to omicron is beyond me.
By the way don't rely too much on a journalist to provide a n in depth analysis.
Your alarmist tosh is becoming unhinged
Get a grip man.
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Post by alec on Dec 24, 2021 8:02:36 GMT
steve - "Wtf are you on about now 195-300 deaths from omicron in a day amongst the 18-24." Ah! The delicacies of the English language! Omicron hospital admissions have gone from 195 - 300 in 24 hours. Deaths have risen from 18 - 24 in the same period. My punctuation was confusing.
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Post by alec on Dec 24, 2021 8:04:34 GMT
steve - "By the way don't rely too much on a journalist to provide a n in depth analysis." No I don't. Ever. I just quoted a highly experienced doctor specialing in virology and a visiting Senior Fellow in Data Science at LSE. Who are you quoting?
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Post by hireton on Dec 24, 2021 8:14:25 GMT
Alec Wtf are you on about now 195-300 deaths from omicron in a day amongst the 18-24. There have been less than 30 deaths among the 18-24 age group with covid throughout 2021 and just 14 in total under 21. The latest available figures from deaths with omicron up to 19th December in the UK is a total of 18 so how derive a figure of 195-300 deaths in any age group to omicron is beyond me. By the way don't rely too much on a journalist to provide a n in depth analysis. Your alarmist tosh is becoming unhinged Get a grip man. You will find John Burn-Murdoch who is a statistician and data scientist an excellent person to follow for informed analysis of covid information. Here is an example of his work: |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,622
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Post by steve on Dec 24, 2021 9:02:12 GMT
Alec
My main problem with your posts is the unremitting effort to maximise the negatives and to personalise data sets with reference on how people will react to the death of their loved ones.
As someone who has had to deliver tragic and unexpected news of people's losses and have experienced them myself I have a reasonable grasp of how this feels.
I don't think it has any place in analysis of a public health issue.
I take your point about Murdoch the brief check I did on him just listed him as a times journalist I accept that this wasn't the extent of his qualifications.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 24, 2021 9:08:59 GMT
Unremitting optimism vs Persistent pessimism
Actuality = probably somewhere in the middle.
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 24, 2021 9:22:13 GMT
Hah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THREE STAR GENERAL and a FULL member !!!!!!!!!!! (Now to check the rule book for me perks.) Now now, liking your own post is taking things too far…. |
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Danny
Member
Posts: 10,336
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Post by Danny on Dec 24, 2021 9:22:54 GMT
Yesterday's Zoe results much the same. R=1.2 for England and 1.5 for London. 1.5 equates to a doubling time of only once every three weeks.
Ad ever age group 20-29 leads the rise. Still indications of peaking in that group but others edging up a bit now.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 24, 2021 9:41:47 GMT
Good morning all from a PSRL where the weather outlook for today and Christmas day look grey with periods of rain, not a snow flake in sight much to the disappointment of my two sons.
Have the family descending on us today so will be busy till the 28th. By some miracle (well and some self-enforced isolation) we have all managed to dodge the covid bullet so far, fingers crossed that continues.
Merry Christmas and good will to all, wishing that one day Champagne will be freely available for all!
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 24, 2021 9:44:14 GMT
My daughter is ill and tested positive so we have all done PCR tests and cancelled our Christmas guests. Happy Christmas all. Oh no - hope you are all ok. |
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Post by barbara on Dec 24, 2021 9:46:59 GMT
My daughter is ill and tested positive so we have all done PCR tests and cancelled our Christmas guests. Happy Christmas all. That's awful luck Nick. Hope you manage to enjoy your changed arrangements. |
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Post by thexterminatingdalek on Dec 24, 2021 9:49:14 GMT
Hah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THREE STAR GENERAL and a FULL member !!!!!!!!!!! (Now to check the rule book for me perks.) Congratulations 3* Gen Croft, (FM), none deserve it more. I trust you and the girls will celebrate accordingly. By careful abstinence and scientific experiment, I hope to determine how long one can cling to new member status and whether it's possible to lose a single star. |
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Post by mandolinist on Dec 24, 2021 9:56:04 GMT
Nickp, sorry to hear about your daughter and the Christmas plans. You have my empathy. Hopefully she is not too unwell, my family members who have tested positive recently have had very mild to no symptoms so far.
OldNat, I hope your Christmas continues to run smoothly, luckily for us we see our grandchildren a lot, so missing the family Christmas is unfortunate, but not devastating. Still having to do daily tests though.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 24, 2021 9:57:02 GMT
There's an ugly rumour going round that you lose a star for every day you don't post. No mention whether you can enter minus star territory though.
I've also heard that in a lord of misrule gesture all senior members (4 stars and above) buy drinks for other ranks at Christmas.
Mine's a pint of Brakspear's best bitter.
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Post by jimjam on Dec 24, 2021 10:07:31 GMT
Hopefully this works R&W issue poll. No honesty or integrity option which one might think was a factor at present. twitter.com/RedfieldWilton |
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For what it's worth, I recommend DuckDuckGo. Less resulty than Google, so I sometimes use it too, but less invasive with ads and privacy stuff.
