8-Dec-2021 : LAB: 40 / CON: 34 / LDEM: 10 / GRN: 4

[eor]

Dec 22, 2021 15:37:03 GMT alec said:

eor - "I saw this earlier, and wondered how major the linguistic/cultural factors would be in polling like that?"

Indeed.

In English, 'Brexit' means a great opportunity where nothing can go wrong and no blame for any problems experienced now or at any time in the future could possibly be attached to the act of leaving the EU.

In all other languages, 'Brexit' translates as an enormous act of economic self harm that has created major trade diversion, substantial loss of investment of and significantly contributed to supply chain disruptions in the UK.

But you're absolutely right - the linguistic differences are funny, aren't they?

Yes, very clever.

Not sure why you felt an open question about methodological difficulties in transnational polling warranted replying with a cheap dig at unrelated people you like to squabble with, but maybe one to recall next time you are bewildered to be thought overly partisan on EU matters. Smiley thing.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 22, 2021 11:25:39 GMT graham said:

Dec 22, 2021 9:00:45 GMT crossbat11 said:

Such have been the lengths of incumbent government terms since 1979, we really have few periods to study in terms of the periods prior to a change in government, certainly since the polling became more thorough and sophisticated (more reliable???). This makes it difficult, maybe dangerous too, to be certain about what sort of mid term polling leads in terms of size and longevity predict subsequent defeat for the incumbents. Or rather where an opposition needs to be in the polls, and for how long, to be in a winning position at the subsequent GE.

In 78-79, the period prior to Thatcher's win, Callaghan was in a decent position in the polls right up to the winter of discontent in 1978. Those last six months of industrial strife gave Thatcher a late home run. We then have to go a long way forward to the 1995-97 period that preceded Labour's win. Major was probably on his way out after Black Wednesday and Blair's ascent to the Labour leadership just accentuated the inevitable. He was double whammyed by a loss of economic confidence in his government and the emergence of an opposition that made the political weather. Everything is unique in its own way, but the period that preceded a change of government in 95-97 offers little lessons for now, certainly in terms of polling soothsaying.

Which leaves us only with 2008-2010. Brown, like Callaghan, was polling fairly well in 2008 but the financial crash and subsequent recession gave Cameron his route to Downing Street, assisted by Clegg.

I suppose the point I'm making, and it's one purely for discussion rather than any assertion or statement of fact, is that I don't think there are definitive polling models that dictate when a government is on the way out and an opposition is on the way in. Things broke fairly late for Thatcher and Cameron as opposition leaders. Corbyn surged late in 2017 too.

A caveat though. It does depend on the incumbent's parliamentary position too. Johnson, in that sense, is in a much better position in that regard than Callaghan, Major and Brown were. Starmer has a large mountain to climb and I totally agree with your view about the likelihood of a Labour OM.

Final reflection. Remarkable to think that we've had only three defeated sitting PMs in the last 42 years.

Going back a little further the Wilson Government during the 1966 Parliament became very unpopular indeed from Autumn 1967 - Autumn 1969. It suffered a string of by election losses - 15 I believe - and had disastrous Local Elections in both 1968 and 1969. The Tories gained virtually every London borough - including Hackney, Islington and Lambeth.Beyond that the Tories had control of Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds,Leicester, Newcastle upon Tyne, Norwich as well as Birmingham. Tory poll leads as high as 28% were seen for many months. Labour did recover at the end of 1969 and by May 1970 were favourites to be re-elected though it did not happen.

With hindsight, I find it difficult to recall what made Wilson's government so unpopular - rivalling Major's Tory government in the 1990s. The country was not in a recession, unemployment remained low by today's standards and inflation was lower than what we are now seeing. Perhaps it was a case of the hopes and expectations raised in 1964 and 1966 had failed to bear fruit.

I was very young at the time to take much notice but wasn’t the devaluation supposed to be a factor in Labour’s failure in 1970? (And taking Charlton off in the quarters in Mexico letting Beckenbauer free to start steaming through)

[jib]

Over 100,000 daily SARS-CoV-2 for the first time.

[tancred]

Dec 22, 2021 16:30:30 GMT jib said:

tancred

Johnson has a very difficult balancing act between the Shire MPs and the Red Wall contingent.

I can't see him making it to 2024, but whether they really have anyone better is debatable.

If it's a choice between the shire MPs and the red wall, the former will win every time. I think that Boris has secretly written off the red wall MPs anyway, in the expectation that Labour will regain most of those seats regardless. He will make noises to support the north etc but he doesn't really believe in this. 

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 22, 2021 11:22:40 GMT Old Southendian said:

Dec 22, 2021 10:01:35 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Getting back to your original question, another two areas in which peoples lives have changed dramatically since 1967 is for gay men (the Sexual Offences Act of 1967) and the LGBT community in general as well as for those with disability.

I was wondering when someone was going to mention that.  Equal rights for women was already a big thing by the late 60's, though of course it still had (and still has) some way to go.  But this is surely a more transformative change.  Comparing my children's attitude to gender and how things were when I was young is just a completely different world.

Another thing that hasn't come up yet as a big change in world attitudes is climate change.  The 60's was still the time of the 'white heat' of technology, I see that as the continuation of the industrial revolution as a way to improve life for humankind.  Environmentalism was in its infancy, but the slow-burn of evidence has pushed it to 'climate emergency' territory.  When people aren't distracted by things like parties.

in the Sixties the fear was of global cooling, due to pollution. But as the clean air acts took hold, it was heatwaves, and global warming due to carbon that had been masked by the cooling effect of pollution. Apollo 8 and its picture of Earthrise is sometimes credited with stoking the environmental movement?

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthrise

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthrise#/media/File:NASA-Apollo8-Dec24-Earthrise.jpg

[Old Southendian]

Dec 22, 2021 16:47:24 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

in the Sixties the fear was of global cooling, due to pollution. But as the clean air acts took hold, it was heatwaves, and global warming due to carbon that had been masked by the cooling effect of pollution.

Yes, I only heard of that 'global cooling' idea recently, I'll have to look it up.  My source was at least three Jethro Tull songs that seem to reference fears of a future ice-age, and I'd always failed to fully understand what Ian Anderson was getting at before.

I suspect David Attenborough and other promoters of the natural world also played a big part, though the earth-rise image is compelling.

[bantams]

The Washington Post is reporting:


South Africa’s huge omicron wave appears to be subsiding just as quickly as it grew

In less than a month, South Africa's omicron wave has gone from a near-vertical rise to a near-vertical fall. The country's top infectious-disease expert said in an interview that based on preliminary evidence from around the world, he expected curves to look much the same in other countries, and that South Africa was around two weeks ahead of where the United States could expect to be.

Maybe the call not to lockdown further will prove to be the right one.

[jib]

tancred

Possibly. I don't think he expected to do as well as he did. Certainly the brutal expulsion of rebels like Grieve indicated he was getting rid of fifth columnists as much as expecting such a sizeable majority.

[Danny]

Dec 22, 2021 14:16:49 GMT eor said:

@danny - much of what you've posted in your two replies to me seems to confirm rather than contradict the idea that deaths typically lag cases by 2-3 weeks, and none of it seems to back up your assertion yesterday that if omicron were going to lead to an increase in deaths we'd be seeing it already, less than a week after the recent step change in case levels began.

But happy to agree with you that we are not extinct as a species.

my recent point was that the lag in deaths compared to national cases depends on which groups are catching it. There is therefore a variable delay between national cases changing and deaths changing which has ranged from 1-3 weeks thus far.

I posted a few days ago that the current rise largely confined to 20-29 age group wasn't going to make any difference to deaths or hospitalisations, and that seems to comprise most of the omicron panic cases thus far.

Though much more significant is a small rise in cases in older groups. And here we shall see if there is any reason to worry, or not.

Meanwhile however, we might expect to see a rise in hospital admissions amongst 20-29s for whatever reason this group tends to be admitted to hospital, who turn out to have incidental covid.

[Old Southendian]

Dec 22, 2021 17:07:29 GMT James E said:

Dec 22, 2021 17:00:56 GMT Old Southendian said:

Yes, I only heard of that 'global cooling' idea recently, I'll have to look it up.  My source was at least three Jethro Tull songs that seem to reference fears of a future ice-age...

There was a good one by The Clash, too

www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfK-WX2pa8c

Yes, excellent song.  Never really thought he was talking about a literal ice-age there, but it makes sense.  On the other hand I had associated "London is drowning and I live by the river" with global warming, which was probably not the reasoning at the time.  Worrying about global warming and cooling at the same time is maybe a bit excessive.  I never felt more like a-singing...

[Deleted]

Dec 22, 2021 17:14:29 GMT Old Southendian said:

Dec 22, 2021 17:07:29 GMT James E said:

There was a good one by The Clash, too

www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfK-WX2pa8c

Yes, excellent song.  Never really thought he was talking about a literal ice-age there, but it makes sense.  On the other hand I had associated "London is drowning and I live by the river" with global warming, which was probably not the reasoning at the time.  Worrying about global warming and cooling at the same time is maybe a bit excessive.  I never felt more like a-singing...

The things you learn-never knew that .

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skating_Away_on_the_Thin_Ice_of_the_New_Day

Just loved the song.

Saw them live in Brum-must be 30 or 40 years ago. Fantastic.

[mercian]

Dec 22, 2021 10:21:02 GMT shevii said:

Britain Elects
@britainelects
·
3m
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 41% (-)
CON: 34% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-2)

via
@focaldatahq
, 20 - 21 Dec
Chgs. w/ 09 Dec

The bounce-back begins! 😄

[bantams]

I have the Surfs Up album by The Beach Boys, there's a song on there called A Day in the Life of a Tree. Brian Wilson was lamenting on how pollution was affecting the trees in his garden and in the local park. I think it's a great song, worth a listen.

[oldnat]

"BREAKING New #Omicron study in Scotland and it looks like good news. ‘Early national data suggests that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation when compared to Delta.’ Experts from Edinburgh & Strathclyde Uni.

The same study suggests the third/booster dose of vaccination offers substantial additional protection against the risk of symptomatic COVID-19 for Omicron" (STV News)

But study also warns that the increased number of infections still poses continued strain on NHS services.

US papers are also carrying the report, though I haven't seen it on media here yet, other than the STV report.

[oldnat]

"We provide quantitative evidence from a long-running, massive-scale randomized experiment on the Twitter platform that committed a randomized control group including nearly 2 million daily active accounts to a reverse-chronological content feed free of algorithmic personalization. We present two sets of findings. First, we studied tweets by elected legislators from major political parties in seven countries. Our results reveal a remarkably consistent trend: In six out of seven countries studied, the mainstream political right enjoys higher algorithmic amplification than the mainstream political left. Consistent with this overall trend, our second set of findings studying the US media landscape revealed that algorithmic amplification favors right-leaning news sources. We further looked at whether algorithms amplify far-left and far-right political groups more than moderate ones; contrary to prevailing public belief, we did not find evidence to support this hypothesis." (PNAS)

In UK Tory voices are amplified more on Twitter than Labour or SNP ones.


www.pnas.org/content/119/1/e2025334119

[graham]

Dec 22, 2021 16:07:04 GMT leftieliberal said:

Dec 22, 2021 13:34:19 GMT neilj said:

Something wrong surely: Lib Dems on 35.7% and Labour on 18.1% Are they using 1921 data instead of 2021 data??

This is not national data - but related to Hazel Grove!

[charles]

bantams - My guess is that you are right and that the Covid rise will be very steep and its fall equally so and that the deaths that result will be perceived as relatively small compared with what was feared. The reasons for thinking that this may not be the case have to do with differences between us and the South African population who are young and much more likely to have contracted other variants. On lthe other hand they also have a lot of people who have HIV and we are more likely to be vaccinated so the differences in risk may not be that great. So in my view we are right to be cautious but hopeful. Given that, it seems to me that we should wear masks, have cond passports and do anything sensible that will not harm the economy but will tend ot keep us safer. This might involve closing the pubs and restaurants, but if we do that we have to compensate them properly. What we should not do is scare the pants off people, tell them not to go to parties etc and use the fact that this is only advisory to avoid giving adequate compensation to the pubs etc. Labour should go for the inequity of this and not the fact that the government has not got a plan, which to be fair to them. it now more or less has.

[statgeek]

Dec 22, 2021 11:46:19 GMT barbara said:

I suspect that Boris doesn't rate women except on scales of shagability, wife potential and child bearing

Possibly, but it's probably more that he surrounds himself with his pals, and based on your criteria, most are men.

[steve]

EOR

You are correct we wouldn't be seeing a significant rise in deaths yet. But we should be seeing a very substantial rise in hospital admissions.We aren't. Daily hospital admissions are not much changed from a month ago.

The northern Ireland administration has just made their covid announcement much in line with old nat's posting indicating a two thirds to three quarters fall in hospitalization with omicron.

If we are to see omicron replace delta even with 100,000 cases diagnosed a day we could actually see deaths and hospitalization fall not rise, and nhs car parks and office blocks can be returned to their normal purpose.

As I mentioned earlier South African rates have fallen by nearly a half in just three days.

Recent studies there indicate an even lower hospitalization rate.

The study found that people in South Africa who were diagnosed with Omicron between October 1 and November 30 were 80% less likely to be hospitalized than those diagnosed with another variant during that period which is good news
Once in the hospital during that period, however, the patients — no matter which variant they were diagnosed with — were just as likely to develop severe disease.
Anti virals should help with disease severity, things that the South African health authorities simply can't afford.

[crossbat11]

colin

Life's a long song.

[neilj]

Dec 22, 2021 16:07:04 GMT leftieliberal said:

Dec 22, 2021 13:34:19 GMT neilj said:

Something wrong surely: Lib Dems on 35.7% and Labour on 18.1% Are they using 1921 data instead of 2021 data??

The second set of figures are drilled down for the Hazel Grove Constituency, they are correct

Edit beaten to it by Graham

[alec]

bantams - the SA data is very interesting, but there are reasons to be cautious. In no particular order, these are my current thoughts:

1) It's summer in SA. That makes a big difference to social activity. This could affect spread, and severity, if people are being infected outdoors/in well ventilated areas, as this might mean lower starting viral loads etc.

2) SA case data is notoriously sticky, with reporting delays, data dumps etc. However, it does sound like the wave is a sharp up and rapid down.

3) This isn't that unusual. Througout the pandemic, many countries (including the UK) have at times experience very big but short lived spikes. Omicron is no different, but this pattern may well speak to citizen behaviour, adapting spontaneously to sharp caseload increases.

4) One reason for a sharp peak that isn't yet present in the UK is that SA have still got restrictions on mass gatherings in place. These didn't stop the sharp spike, but maybe they have helped ensure that it ran out of steam more rapidly.

5) A reasonably unique feature of the UK's recent covid case pattern (at least when compared to our European neighbours, Japan, and probably a fair few others) is that other countries managed to push covid rates well down during the summer/autumn period. We maintained a relatively incredibly high case burden on a consistent and persistant basis. The UK pattern is therefore different to other countries. Recently we have seen surges, which fall back, but always to a higher level than the last trough, before surging again. That's why the UK was chugging along at 150 deaths a day for much of the autumn, while other countries were scratching their heads wondering what the heck Johnson was doing. Unless something is done differently this time, there is no reason to assume that the UK pattern will mirror other countries. From July until the end of October the UK led the group of similar western European countries I keep and eye on in cases and deaths, and we've been in the top three for cases throughout. Other countries have had big spikes more recently, but most have already brought them down or slowed them through policy actions.

I can't really predict what will happen, but I'm not certain pointing to SA as a model for a particular case pattern is very helpful. Much of that will come down to actions taken, either by citizens or by states, so we may need to understand those and mirror them if we were to enjoy the same rapid fall.

[bantams]

I don't like the look of this poll:

[bantams]

Dec 22, 2021 17:57:40 GMT alec said:

bantams - the SA data is very interesting, but there are reasons to be cautious. In no particular order, these are my current thoughts:

1) It's summer in SA. That makes a big difference to social activity. This could affect spread, and severity, if people are being infected outdoors/in well ventilated areas, as this might mean lower starting viral loads etc.

2) SA case data is notoriously sticky, with reporting delays, data dumps etc. However, it does sound like the wave is a sharp up and rapid down.

3) This isn't that unusual. Througout the pandemic, many countries (including the UK) have at times experience very big but short lived spikes. Omicron is no different, but this pattern may well speak to citizen behaviour, adapting spontaneously to sharp caseload increases.

4) One reason for a sharp peak that isn't yet present in the UK is that SA have still got restrictions on mass gatherings in place. These didn't stop the sharp spike, but maybe they have helped ensure that it ran out of steam more rapidly.

5) A reasonably unique feature of the UK's recent covid case pattern (at least when compared to our European neighbours, Japan, and probably a fair few others) is that other countries managed to push covid rates well down during the summer/autumn period. We maintained a relatively incredibly high case burden on a consistent and persistant basis. The UK pattern is therefore different to other countries. Recently we have seen surges, which fall back, but always to a higher level than the last trough, before surging again. That's why the UK was chugging along at 150 deaths a day for much of the autumn, while other countries were scratching their heads wondering what the heck Johnson was doing. Unless something is done differently this time, there is no reason to assume that the UK pattern will mirror other countries. From July until the end of October the UK led the group of similar western European countries I keep and eye on in cases and deaths, and we've been in the top three for cases throughout. Other countries have had big spikes more recently, but most have already brought them down or slowed them through policy actions.

I can't really predict what will happen, but I'm not certain pointing to SA as a model for a particular case pattern is very helpful. Much of that will come down to actions taken, either by citizens or by states, so we may need to understand those and mirror them if we were to enjoy the same rapid fall.

The data has been backed up by some Scottish figures which suggest a big drop in hospitalisations with Omicron. Neil Ferguson has just backed this view on't tele.

[John Chanin]

Dec 22, 2021 17:00:56 GMT Old Southendian said:

Dec 22, 2021 16:47:24 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

in the Sixties the fear was of global cooling, due to pollution. But as the clean air acts took hold, it was heatwaves, and global warming due to carbon that had been masked by the cooling effect of pollution.

Yes, I only heard of that 'global cooling' idea recently, I'll have to look it up.  My source was at least three Jethro Tull songs that seem to reference fears of a future ice-age, and I'd always failed to fully understand what Ian Anderson was getting at before.

I suspect David Attenborough and other promoters of the natural world also played a big part, though the earth-rise image is compelling.

Absent human intervention we would expect to see a small but slow cooling in northern temperate regions.  This is due to Milankovic cycles - the short cycle is currently at the bottom (perihelion is on 4 January), the middle cycle is halfway down, and the long cycle is on a decline. There was never a chance of a full blown ice age - that is tens of thousands of years away.  However a cooling world would probably be more of a problem than a warming one - at least in terms of problems for agriculture.

[Danny]

Dec 22, 2021 17:45:15 GMT charles said:

Given that, it seems to me that we should wear masks, have cond passports and do anything sensible that will not harm the economy but will tend ot keep us safer. This might involve closing the pubs and restaurants, but if we do that we have to compensate them properly. What we should not do is scare the pants off people, tell them not to go to parties etc and use the fact that this is only advisory to avoid giving adequate compensation to the pubs etc. Labour should go for the inequity of this and not the fact that the government has not got a plan, which to be fair to them. it now more or less has.

The only justification at this point for restrictions is to prevent hospital overload. If we have evidence that isn't going to happen, then they are a restriction of liberty bankrupting cituzens and the state for nothing.

As to encouraging labour to push for useless restrictions harming voters...

[leftieliberal]

neilj It's still confusing that they are putting two very different pieces of information in the same tweet. The overall seat figures and the map would have been fine, but then why single out Hazel Grove? If the map had been of Hazel Grove and the immediately surrounding constituencies, it would have made more sense.

[neilj]

Dec 22, 2021 18:15:51 GMT leftieliberal said:

neilj It's still confusing that they are putting two very different pieces of information in the same tweet. The overall seat figures and the map would have been fine, but then why single out Hazel Grove? If the map had been of Hazel Grove and the immediately surrounding constituencies, it would have made more sense.

From the info on it I assume they have singled it out as it will become the most marginal seat under the new national polling figures

[tancred]

Dec 22, 2021 17:58:24 GMT bantams said:

I don't like the look of this poll:

Well, Biden won't be running in 2024 so it doesn't matter.  But the Democrats had better come out with a really strong candidate!

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Dec 22, 2021 15:07:03 GMT jimjam said:

Apologies for my pedantry but there is a reason as I wish to take issue with the use of the phrase nuclear deterrent.

This is inadvertently leading as it adopts the term used by supporters of nuclear weapons.

Being a deterrent or not is part of the debate imo.

While I am at it (one post does me as being a 3 star member already I have no need to crassly artificially chase!) I am reminded of the soon to be moving on, not to be lamented, Laura Kuenssberg.

She talked in one report about Market interference which is right out of the ROC political dictionary.

An appropriately neutral term would be intervention and then the politicians can introduce words like interference, correction or amelioration for example if they wish.

Whether it was inadvertent or not we will never know but it did belie her views, which I think are pretty clear anyhow, which many see as bias and subtly shape narratives.

Hi Jim Jam - the term nulcear deterreant / deterrence is a military doctrine and not really a politically loaded one. How effective a doctine it is/has been is open to debate as is the rationale for keeping nuclear weapons (which since the end of the cold war has tended to have more to do with the UK's status as a power that possesses them than actually dettering anyone).