steve
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Post by steve on Dec 22, 2021 18:38:38 GMT
Bantams
Ferguson isn't the most reliable when it comes to prediction over estimating severity from disease by up to 12000% ( all be it the parameters he gives himself is that this was still within moe)
However his figures indicate a 40% reduction of overnight stays with omicron.
This would be consistent with South African data which shows those admitted to hospital were less ill. With admissions on average of2-3 days down from 6-8 with previous variants.
This is particularly good news for mortality.
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 22, 2021 18:42:18 GMT
Another politician having to explain himself:
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2021 18:45:19 GMT
Very envious of that dance routine. Looks absolutely great.
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 22, 2021 18:51:28 GMT
Very envious of that dance routine. Looks absolutely great. Lots of masks & social distancing on display! |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 22, 2021 18:51:45 GMT
in the Sixties the fear was of global cooling, due to pollution. But as the clean air acts took hold, it was heatwaves, and global warming due to carbon that had been masked by the cooling effect of pollution. Yes, I only heard of that 'global cooling' idea recently, I'll have to look it up. My source was at least three Jethro Tull songs that seem to reference fears of a future ice-age, and I'd always failed to fully understand what Ian Anderson was getting at before.
I suspect David Attenborough and other promoters of the natural world also played a big part, though the earth-rise image is compelling.
yes, like Colin I hadn’t realised about the Tull songs. When it comes to global cooling, have you heard of the snowball Earth hypothesis? Now THAT is some global cooling... youtu.be/YOLbE8frMrM |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 22, 2021 18:55:51 GMT
Yes, I only heard of that 'global cooling' idea recently, I'll have to look it up. My source was at least three Jethro Tull songs that seem to reference fears of a future ice-age, and I'd always failed to fully understand what Ian Anderson was getting at before.
I suspect David Attenborough and other promoters of the natural world also played a big part, though the earth-rise image is compelling.
However a cooling world would probably be more of a problem than a warming one - at least in terms of problems for agriculture. Especially if it was a snowball!? |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2021 18:57:27 GMT
Steve I’ve noticed that nobody treats you with any more respect now that you are a a senior member. Maybe even less.
Are there any perks at all with the position or am I wasting my time posting?
(By that I mean in prestige terms - we’re all wasting our time posting of course.)
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2021 19:00:52 GMT
Very envious of that dance routine. Looks absolutely great. Lots of masks & social distancing on display! Indeed. I do have sympathy for pantomimes being cancelled though. I went to one organised by local farmers in Hexhamshire once and it was worse than listening to a sermon in Malta when I was about seven (and which I have never forgotten.) Worse and a lot, lot l o n g e r. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 22, 2021 19:00:57 GMT
I have the Surfs Up album by The Beach Boys, there's a song on there called A Day in the Life of a Tree. Brian Wilson was lamenting on how pollution was affecting the trees in his garden and in the local park. I think it's a great song, worth a listen. It’s on youtube www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBAhT-_dLes |
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Post by mercian on Dec 22, 2021 19:12:02 GMT
in the Sixties the fear was of global cooling, due to pollution. But as the clean air acts took hold, it was heatwaves, and global warming due to carbon that had been masked by the cooling effect of pollution. Yes, I only heard of that 'global cooling' idea recently, I'll have to look it up. My source was at least three Jethro Tull songs that seem to reference fears of a future ice-age, and I'd always failed to fully understand what Ian Anderson was getting at before.
I suspect David Attenborough and other promoters of the natural world also played a big part, though the earth-rise image is compelling.
Both Mrs M and I remember being taught at school that we were in an inter-glacial age and probably near the mid-point, thus there was expected to be another ice age within a few thousand years. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2021 19:16:25 GMT
I should mention that the photo of me on the left is not a very good likeness as I now have a sort of combination moustache and beard.
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Post by Old Southendian on Dec 22, 2021 19:19:57 GMT
Yes, excellent song. Never really thought he was talking about a literal ice-age there, but it makes sense. On the other hand I had associated "London is drowning and I live by the river" with global warming, which was probably not the reasoning at the time. Worrying about global warming and cooling at the same time is maybe a bit excessive. I never felt more like a-singing... The things you learn-never knew that . en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skating_Away_on_the_Thin_Ice_of_the_New_DayJust loved the song. Saw them live in Brum-must be 30 or 40 years ago. Fantastic. Too young to attend gigs at that stage, so very envious. I'm surprised that Ian Anderson says this is his first climate change/environmental song, he'd tackled pretty much the same theme earlier (1971?) on "Wond'ring Again" from Living in the Past. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 22, 2021 19:28:42 GMT
On this site, is there a way to bookmark the last post you read, so that refreshing the screen brings you back to that point?
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Post by Old Southendian on Dec 22, 2021 19:33:23 GMT
The main topic of interest on this website is supposed to be polling and politics. Yet I was just listening to womans hour, which was discussing polling and in particular that the conservatives currently have been losing the femal vote. Also that what Blair achieved was no so much a general rise in labour share, but a rise in the proportion of females supporting labour. But has anyone mentioned that here recently? They argued all these pictures of males at government parties has not been ecouraging females to support a party where female voters see males running it and breaking the rules. Getting back to this, I'm going to try something new, a picture. Not sure if this will work.
Anyway, it shows the YouGov Labour VI percentages - total and split by M/F - and the difference between the two over the course of the last year. Unfortunately I realise now that the original post said a drop in female support for CON rather than a rise in female support for LAB. So I'm going to have to do it all again. But anyway, it seems to me that the female Labour VI is typically 5% above male, and that's sort of what I remember from the past. There may be just a hint of a slight increase in recent data, but it's not particularly convincing yet.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2021 19:34:17 GMT
yes, like Colin I hadn’t realised about the Tull songs. When it comes to global cooling, have you heard of the snowball Earth hypothesis? Now THAT is some global cooling... youtu.be/YOLbE8frMrMThats a fantastic part of Earths history. |
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 22, 2021 19:46:00 GMT
Yes, I only heard of that 'global cooling' idea recently, I'll have to look it up. My source was at least three Jethro Tull songs that seem to reference fears of a future ice-age, and I'd always failed to fully understand what Ian Anderson was getting at before.
I suspect David Attenborough and other promoters of the natural world also played a big part, though the earth-rise image is compelling.
yes, like Colin I hadn’t realised about the Tull songs. When it comes to global cooling, have you heard of the snowball Earth hypothesis? Now THAT is some global cooling... youtu.be/YOLbE8frMrMIt is now generally accepted to be true. The interesting discussions are about how it relates to the development of complex life (eukaryotes). |
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Post by shevii on Dec 22, 2021 20:04:59 GMT
Are there any perks at all with the position or am I wasting my time posting? Depends what you call a perk. Have you had your hazing session yet to join this exclusive club? |
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 22, 2021 20:13:45 GMT
Bantams Does that Theatre Director think that his government should wait until hospitalisations have risen to their previous level before acting to stop the spread of a much more infectious variant of Covid? Surely we all know that deaths are a lagging indicator, and that we can't/shouldn't wait for them to rise before acting? And while there is some firly solid data supporting the idea that Omicron is a lot less dangerous, we are still likely to be facing a crisis in hospitals, due to the ineviatable rise in medical staff absences. We don't know the full picture yet, and with the pandemic entering a new (and uncertain) phase, a bit of caution is surely sensible. Most governemnts around Europe are taking measures now - not just Wales! The bigger question for me is, after all the crap flying around recently about social distancing & mask wearing indoor, what is Mark Drakeford doing here? I agree with you that some short term measures are needed, the juries out for me as to how strong they need to be. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 22, 2021 20:16:37 GMT
yes, like Colin I hadn’t realised about the Tull songs. When it comes to global cooling, have you heard of the snowball Earth hypothesis? Now THAT is some global cooling... youtu.be/YOLbE8frMrMThats a fantastic part of Earths history. isn’t it just. I was quite taken aback when I first saw a documentary about it. Cool how they piece these things together too. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2021 20:16:48 GMT
Are there any perks at all with the position or am I wasting my time posting? Depends what you call a perk. Have you had your hazing session yet to join this exclusive club? No. But neither do I know what that is? Does it involve drugs? |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 22, 2021 20:17:54 GMT
yes, like Colin I hadn’t realised about the Tull songs. When it comes to global cooling, have you heard of the snowball Earth hypothesis? Now THAT is some global cooling... youtu.be/YOLbE8frMrMIt is now generally accepted to be true. The interesting discussions are about how it relates to the development of complex life (prokaryotes). When I was checking YouTube for a link, the life angle did seem to crop up. I’ll have to watch some more about it. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2021 20:29:40 GMT
Depends what you call a perk. Have you had your hazing session yet to join this exclusive club? No. But neither do I know what that is? Does it involve drugs? Right, I’ve just looked it up. To be honest that is what I was hoping to escape from. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2021 20:46:32 GMT
What about his rubbish dancing?
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 22, 2021 20:57:02 GMT
The alleged Drakeford scandal that no doubt is rocking his administration to the core. And deservedly so: www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10207819/Welsh-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-slammed-not-wearing-mask-Diwali-celebration.htmlIt first appeared in the Daily Mail in November 16th. The Mail dug it up to counter criticism of Johnson for not wearing a face mask on a hospital visit. It was a valiant effort by the Mail to lead the Johnson fightback but even they conceded it was a non runner. The event that Drakeford attended was serving food and drink and fully complied with the mask wearing guidelines at the time. That time being November 16th 2021, not May 2020 or December 2020 when a completely different set of restrictions on public gatherings applied. Much stricter ones too. |
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 22, 2021 20:58:50 GMT
The bigger question for me is, after all the crap flying around recently about social distancing & mask wearing indoor, what is Mark Drakeford doing here? I agree with you that some short term measures are needed, the juries out for me as to how strong they need to be. Given that the film is from a month ago, there is nothing that Drakeford needs to answer for. Masks and social distancing were not required at the time. The rules in Wales at the time were to wear a mask in indoor settings, I think that was indoors. Hardly anyone wearing a mask either. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2021 21:01:50 GMT
The alleged Drakeford scandal that no doubt is rocking his administration to the core. And deservedly so: www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10207819/Welsh-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-slammed-not-wearing-mask-Diwali-celebration.htmlIt first appeared in the Daily Mail in November 16th. The Mail dug it up to counter criticism of Johnson for not wearing a face mask on a hospital visit. It was a valiant effort by the Mail to lead the Johnson fightback but even they conceded it was a non runner. The event that Drakeford attended was serving food and drink and fully complied with the mask wearing guidelines at the time. That time being November 16th 2021, not May 2020 or December 2020 when a completely different set of restrictions on public gatherings applied. Much stricter ones too. But what about his dancing !?!?!?!?? |
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 22, 2021 21:17:24 GMT
The alleged Drakeford scandal that no doubt is rocking his administration to the core. And deservedly so: www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10207819/Welsh-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-slammed-not-wearing-mask-Diwali-celebration.htmlIt first appeared in the Daily Mail in November 16th. The Mail dug it up to counter criticism of Johnson for not wearing a face mask on a hospital visit. It was a valiant effort by the Mail to lead the Johnson fightback but even they conceded it was a non runner. The event that Drakeford attended was serving food and drink and fully complied with the mask wearing guidelines at the time. That time being November 16th 2021, not May 2020 or December 2020 when a completely different set of restrictions on public gatherings applied. Much stricter ones too. Batty, I'm not making excuses for any transgressions made by anyone in May or December & I hadn't seen that clip until today. As always it's the perception taken after seeing a short clip or photo. Regardless of whether you're "following" rules, dancing in a largish close group like that makes the stupid out there think it's alright for them. I think interpreting the eating & drinking rule as to also allow close dancing is stretching the rules somewhat. Let's leave it there. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 22, 2021 21:44:44 GMT
Crofty
In order to reach the giddy heights of four stars you are required to perform Wagner's ring cycle on the stylophone while disassembling a Heckler and Koch (H&K) MP5SF 9mm (single fire) carbine blind folded with one arm tied behind your back.
It's not for the faint hearted.
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 22, 2021 21:52:40 GMT
@bardini In case you missed it Crossbat - this is still available on BBC Sounds (not the interview you heard but probably uses excerpts from it)
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/b00tk7sfMany, many thanks for this. Much appreciated. Good to see you posting again too.  |
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Post by mercian on Dec 22, 2021 22:02:09 GMT
I understand the latest Welsh lockdown rules are stricter than those in England, which begs the question what is the point? It can only be political. I don't believe the Welsh border is to be closed and there are many people who cross the border on a daily basis for work or other reasons. Therefore Welsh measures can do almost nothing to protect their population.
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