Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 22, 2021 14:19:33 GMT
Todays zoe results....20-29 age group cases slowed in the most recent day's data. On the other hand, cases amongst the oldest picked up a bit. Interesting times.
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Post by tancred on Dec 22, 2021 14:22:40 GMT
Another one from Britain Elects. This is the Christmas rush, we'll get a drought of polls between now and the New Year I guess. Westminster voting intention: LAB: 37% (-1) CON: 32% (-2) LDEM: 13% (+3) GRN: 5% (+1) via @savantacomres, 17 - 19 Dec Chgs. w/ 16 Dec Interestingly, another one which shows a boost for the LibDems. Not very good news for Labour as this poll is very much in 'hung parliament' territory. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Dec 22, 2021 14:27:16 GMT
Another one from Britain Elects. This is the Christmas rush, we'll get a drought of polls between now and the New Year I guess. Westminster voting intention: LAB: 37% (-1) CON: 32% (-2) LDEM: 13% (+3) GRN: 5% (+1) via @savantacomres, 17 - 19 Dec Chgs. w/ 16 Dec Interestingly, another one which shows a boost for the LibDems. Not very good news for Labour as this poll is very much in 'hung parliament' territory. Probably a short-term by election boost. The boost from Chesham & Amersham did not last long. Even more likely as we enter the Bank Holiday period. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2021 14:28:58 GMT
And though I found totting up post quantity slightly odd I am grateful to you for the opportunity to add two more posts to my tally and my inexorable ascent to two star status. “Well no, it was a crude attempt for you to try and portray someone as odd. And incidentally, you have counted my posts before now.” It wasn’t really as I was referring to the collation of a “top” group with daily averages by another poster. Maybe you are just over sensitive? On the occasion I counted your posts it was dead easy as they dominated a single page. That probably also counts as “slightly” odd though - which was my original comment. Anyway, despite the desire to achieve senior membership ASAP I won’t respond to you again. As many here would agree you are just far too touchy, which is a shame as you also have some excellent qualities. |
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Post by hireton on Dec 22, 2021 14:30:40 GMT
Not sure if this has been posted but in case not:
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2021 14:30:46 GMT
Another one from Britain Elects. This is the Christmas rush, we'll get a drought of polls between now and the New Year I guess. Westminster voting intention: LAB: 37% (-1) CON: 32% (-2) LDEM: 13% (+3) GRN: 5% (+1) via @savantacomres, 17 - 19 Dec Chgs. w/ 16 Dec Interestingly, another one which shows a boost for the LibDems. Not very good news for Labour as this poll is very much in 'hung parliament' territory. As always at this stage it is the direction of travel one should focus on, not some General Election in the future that these figures have no relevance to. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 22, 2021 14:33:07 GMT
Seeing the uptick in LD figures and realising this is likely to be temporary, got me wondering what an opposition party can actually do to keep as much as possible of such an upturn? Whilst a government has the handles of power that they can use to enhance their popularity in any number of ways, the opposition parties only have their policies and promises.
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Post by eor on Dec 22, 2021 14:42:11 GMT
Polling, this time on the issue of food shortages - www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/22/food-shortages-hitting-britons-more-than-many-in-eu-poll-findsTwo points of interest: the UK clearly stands out as suffering substantially more shortages, but the US is not so far behind. What is very interesting is that the EU countries are doing miles better. That could be connected to the single market, but the US is just as large a single market, so there are some obvious complexities involved. Either way, given we were once part of the EU economic system, it's clear that we can't blame global issues for the supply chain issues here - the scale of disruption is clearly home grown. I saw this earlier, and wondered how major the linguistic/cultural factors would be in polling like that? Firstly that shopping habits (and expectations of variety/choice) might be rather different between countries - is the typical UK approach of visiting (or taking delivery from) one supermarket once a week ubiquitous? A culture in which people tend to shop more frequently and less comprehensively, and/or routinely shop from multiple sources across a week/fortnight could have a very different tolerance to modest supply disruption. Likewise one in which many people are reliant on specific niche suppliers of particular goods could be rather more susceptible. And on language - I'd suspect that concept of a "shortage" could mean very different things. To take extreme examples, would a 50 year old Russian and a 50 year old American really form the same mental picture when asked if they've experienced shortages in buying food recently? Personally I'm not sure how I'd answer a polling question on that - have I experienced a shortage if the one supermarket I go to doesn't have the brand or flavour of a given product I am used to buying, and I have to buy another very similar product instead? Does it become a shortage if I am inconvenienced by needing to visit a second shop to buy a product I need because the first shop has run out of it entirely? Or does it only become a shortage if I have to go without something I want this week because it is not possible to buy it locally at all? I wouldn't be surprised if such interpretations varied between countries too. |
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Post by hireton on Dec 22, 2021 14:43:14 GMT
Johnson's personal ratings continue to slide with Starmer taking a lead in "Best for PM" in the Savanta ComRes poll:
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Post by barbara on Dec 22, 2021 14:47:54 GMT
As you move around Yorkshire, as in Lancashire, the accent changes. Leeds is different to Bradford but not by much. Hull accents are very distinctive and as you move west to Goole & Selby they change so you still pick up the East Yorkshire twang but less so. Then Castleford & Pontefract has it's own flavour again. When the locals pronounce Bratfud it's said quickly and as though it's one syllable instead of two. I've heard radio presenters pronounce Horsforth as Horsefourth, locals say Orsefuth or Horsefuth. Same with Garforth. East Lancashire accents are lovely, we call it a burr. Soft. Burr-n- li. If you saw AJ on Strictly you'd been listening to a thick North Lancashire accent, nothing like Manchester. I watched University Challenge last night, Martin Roberts is from Warrington, Bell Ribeiro-Addy is from Brixton, Anthony Finkelstein from London & David Dowling from Doncaster. None could be said to be local. I'm a Mancunian living in the North East. I speak with a slightly reduced Coronation Street accent ( due to living in lots of different places. I never realised till I moved here the difference in accents from Teesside to Berwick on Tweed. It travels from a North Yorkshire accent to a slightly NE influenced Yorkshire accent in Teesside, to a gentle Machem/Sanddancer accent in Sunderland and South Shields, to full Geordie in Newcastle, through a softer more rural version in Northumberland ending up as an interesting cross between a Northumberland and gentle Scottish Borders accent in Berwick upon Tweed. |
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Post by barbara on Dec 22, 2021 14:49:24 GMT
Bardin1 In case you missed it Crossbat - this is still available on BBC Sounds (not the interview you heard but probably uses excerpts from it)
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/b00tk7sfOoh thanks.
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Post by jimjam on Dec 22, 2021 14:55:31 GMT
That Hazel Grove dead heat is the kind of seat that I think enough Labour voters would back the LD candidate in now to take them over the line.
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Post by tancred on Dec 22, 2021 14:56:54 GMT
Seeing the uptick in LD figures and realising this is likely to be temporary, got me wondering what an opposition party can actually do to keep as much as possible of such an upturn? Whilst a government has the handles of power that they can use to enhance their popularity in any number of ways, the opposition parties only have their policies and promises. Voter psychology is hard to fathom. Sometimes seeing one party doing well in some by-election can provide a temporary boost, and then it withers away a few weeks later. That said, I do believe that the LibDem nadir has passed and the moderate southern middle class Tory voters are beginning to reconsider their loyalties, which may well translate into a LibDem revival. As for Labour, they really need to be hitting 40% and above to be confident of winning an overall majority in the next election, and they are currently some way off from this target. A new Tory leader, or, God forbid, a war in which Britain is heavily involved, could easily wipe out the small Labour lead. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 22, 2021 14:57:40 GMT
Oh, labelling as odd, AND touchy now, and some made up bull about dominating a page. Wow. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2021 15:06:16 GMT
Barbara, when I first moved to the North East to play the clubs in the early seventies (most had entertainment seven nights a week plus an all-male Sunday morning. I remember when we first played one of those that when we walked on stage we were met by a sea of front pages as our audience read the back page footy reports.
Anyway, we were both amazed and entranced by the accents, usually very warm and I’ve never forgotten being greeted at the back doors to get equipment to the stage, at a club in Byker, being greeted by a doorman with “Ahll reet Bonny lads?”
That was so typical of the area. I’m in Barnard Castle now (24 years) but also lived near the docks in Bill Quay, Hexham and Alston in Cumbria (just over the border from Northumberland).
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Post by jimjam on Dec 22, 2021 15:07:03 GMT
Apologies for my pedantry but there is a reason as I wish to take issue with the use of the phrase nuclear deterrent.
This is inadvertently leading as it adopts the term used by supporters of nuclear weapons.
Being a deterrent or not is part of the debate imo.
While I am at it (one post does me as being a 3 star member already I have no need to crassly artificially chase!) I am reminded of the soon to be moving on, not to be lamented, Laura Kuenssberg.
She talked in one report about Market interference which is right out of the ROC political dictionary.
An appropriately neutral term would be intervention and then the politicians can introduce words like interference, correction or amelioration for example if they wish.
Whether it was inadvertent or not we will never know but it did belie her views, which I think are pretty clear anyhow, which many see as bias and subtly shape narratives.
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Post by eor on Dec 22, 2021 15:15:44 GMT
We have four 'Senior' members each with four 'pips'. Who knows when they'll trip through to five stars but I suspect they'll become 'veterans'. I was thinking the next stage would be Complete members... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2021 15:23:20 GMT
We have four 'Senior' members each with four 'pips'. Who knows when they'll trip through to five stars but I suspect they'll become 'veterans'. I was thinking the next stage would be Complete members... Oh....... Disappointing; I was hoping for a five star General ceremony at some point. (I do hope Mr Jam doesn’t find that “crass”.) |
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Post by barbara on Dec 22, 2021 15:25:06 GMT
Barbara, when I first moved to the North East to play the clubs in the early seventies (most had entertainment seven nights a week plus an all-male Sunday morning. I remember when we first played one of those that when we walked on stage we were met by a sea of front pages as our audience read the back page footy reports. Anyway, we were both amazed and entranced by the accents, usually very warm and I’ve never forgotten being greeted at the back doors to get equipment to the stage, at a club in Byker, being greeted by a doorman with “Ahll reet Bonny lads?” That was so typical of the area. I’m in Barnard Castle now (24 years) but also lived near the docks in Bill Quay, Hexham and Alston in Cumbria (just over the border from Northumberland). When I worked in South Tyneside I was talking to the Leader of the Council one day and to make conversation I said, "Did you have a nice weekend?", to which he replied, "Aye, we wuh wi wuh weans" !! Which was translated for me as: " Yes, we were with our grandchildren." |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2021 15:31:23 GMT
Barbara, I have spellcheck and when I write to footy chums in Geordie I have to be really alert for their irritating corrections. Could do with a ‘translate button” - nah worrah mean layke pet?”
Just remembered: in Bill Quay we passed a woman bollocking her young son with “Purrit doon or ah’ll f*ucking knife ye.”
So not always warm and loving.... or maternal
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Post by alec on Dec 22, 2021 15:37:03 GMT
eor - "I saw this earlier, and wondered how major the linguistic/cultural factors would be in polling like that?" Indeed. In English, 'Brexit' means a great opportunity where nothing can go wrong and no blame for any problems experienced now or at any time in the future could possibly be attached to the act of leaving the EU. In all other languages, 'Brexit' translates as an enormous act of economic self harm that has created major trade diversion, substantial loss of investment of and significantly contributed to supply chain disruptions in the UK. But you're absolutely right - the linguistic differences are funny, aren't they?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2021 15:37:53 GMT
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Post by alec on Dec 22, 2021 15:39:21 GMT
barbara - I used to work in a shop, and was asked by a small child from Sunderland for a 'walnut'. I was baffled. We sold sweets and chocolate bars. Took nearly five minutes to figure out he was asking for a Cadburys Wholenut.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2021 15:50:43 GMT
@tw Good piece by DF in Times today on the difficulties of a "coup" against BJ Thanks Colin. Good points raised. I appreciate it's paywalled but I'll provide link for those who might want to pay for their news and/or can use key words to see if the article appears in any 'free' source: www.thetimes.co.uk/article/staging-a-coup-against-johnson-is-not-so-easy-mlsjpwstjI've mentioned some points WRT to timing, the 12mth clause before trying again, etc. 'Timing' wise then anyone wishing to replace him would prefer to wait to get more bad news out of the way - but they then might miss their opportunity?!? Another piece from Times that covers some other points mentioned by folks on UKPR2: "Boris will be gone by the end of 2022. The moment he isn't king of the world he'll leave the throne completely." |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 22, 2021 15:57:46 GMT
Colin: So the SM & Brexit have not distinguished personal delivery problems. Surprising ?I don't really understand what you mean by 'distinguished' in your post. I'm guessing something along the lines of 'created' or 'affected'. If so, the answer to your question, "Surprising?" is probably No. YouGov doesn't seem to explain its question very well, but it is framed in terms of personal deliveries rather than B2B, so I assume it mainly reflects experience in getting supplies from Amazon and other internet suppliers. In which case, it will reflect mainly global supply issues, as well as local delivery issues with congestion, driver shortages and so on at the DHLs of this world. The upshot seems to be that where SM and brexit are relevant factors, as in UK, a difference in shortages shows up. Where these are not particularly relevant factors, they don't. Surprising? The other thing which is of interest , i think, in connection with that whole supply chain issue is Labour Markets. Ian King in T today coins the expression " The Great Resignation". This is the quite extraordinary proportion of the workforce in UK & USA who have not returned-by choice-to their previous jobs. Yes, is this the beginning of an even bigger change? Whether HE has seen its high watermark, with an increasing casualisation of the workforce and and a shift to more apprenticeships. Some in tandem with degrees, of course. Will there be more homeschooling as a result of the pandemic? |
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 22, 2021 16:07:04 GMT
Something wrong surely: Lib Dems on 35.7% and Labour on 18.1% Are they using 1921 data instead of 2021 data?? |
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Post by tancred on Dec 22, 2021 16:11:39 GMT
Something wrong surely: Lib Dems on 35.7% and Labour on 18.1% Are they using 1921 data instead of 2021 data?? It certainly seems like it!  |
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Post by tancred on Dec 22, 2021 16:19:51 GMT
Thanks Colin. Good points raised. I appreciate it's paywalled but I'll provide link for those who might want to pay for their news and/or can use key words to see if the article appears in any 'free' source: www.thetimes.co.uk/article/staging-a-coup-against-johnson-is-not-so-easy-mlsjpwstjI've mentioned some points WRT to timing, the 12mth clause before trying again, etc. 'Timing' wise then anyone wishing to replace him would prefer to wait to get more bad news out of the way - but they then might miss their opportunity?!? Another piece from Times that covers some other points mentioned by folks on UKPR2: "Boris will be gone by the end of 2022. The moment he isn't king of the world he'll leave the throne completely."I don't think Johnson will quit easily. If he only cared about his income he would have gone already and started off on a lucrative speaking tour of the US. Johnson is obsessed with leaving a historical legacy, so he wants to be PM for as long as possible. I doubt he'll go in 2022 - if there is a challenge to him it will be next year. I could be wrong, but with an 80 odd seat majority the Tories don't need to rush to replace him. I don't think either Truss or Sunak will challenge him directly and the Brexit hard cases like Steve Baker don't have enough support. I can't help feeling that Boris will soldier on until 2024 in the same way that Major did in 1997. Labour don't need to win the next election, the Tories will lose it. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 22, 2021 16:29:38 GMT
Old Southendian
"Apologies to OldNat et al, here's an update:"
No apology required. I've pointed out before that the SNP share of a GB headline VI, and the parenthetical +/-, has little import.
Since certainty to vote in Scotland is pretty stable (as is the VI), the SNP share of the GB vote rises above 4.5% when there are more DKs in England, and falls below 4.5% when English voters become more certain as to voting at all, and for whom.
Since "polldrums" was coined by a Scot on UKPR1, it seems appropriate that our W/M VI has settled into stasis, and seems rather unaffected by the storms that blow around Westminster from time to time.
The current last 7 poll crossbreak averages for Scotland are -
YG (N=1044) - SNP 45% : SCon 22% : SLab 18% : SLD 6% : SGP 5% : REFUK 2%
Comres ( N=973) - SNP 45% : SCon 23% : SLab 18% : SLD 10% : SGP 2% : REFUK 1%
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jib
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Post by jib on Dec 22, 2021 16:30:30 GMT
tancredJohnson has a very difficult balancing act between the Shire MPs and the Red Wall contingent. I can't see him making it to 2024, but whether they really have anyone better is debatable.
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