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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 10, 2021 19:18:50 GMT
Tancred, Robert Newark is just Robert on this board and sadly ToH implied 2-3 months ago that he did not have long left to live and was not around for the last month on the penultimate thread. By his own admission, ToH did react to Brexit bad type posts too often but typically he was one of the posters primarily engaged in polling discussions. I fear wishing him well is too late but I for one will remember him appreciatively. And I will remember him fondly for bringing the joy of allotments on to UKPR.  indeed, and he got me more into county cricket and the opera. He was also appreciate of posts that ran counter to his views. The conservation exchanges were interesting too. |
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Post by barbara on Dec 10, 2021 19:20:42 GMT
Colin,
I do try to be as even handed as I can but accept I don't always manage it. So if you feel I picked you out unfairly I apologise. Perhaps it stung a bit more because I don't like being lumped into a general 'lefty' camp. (I am left of centre but that's a huge range of opinion.)
You often have well evidenced arguments to support your posts so it just seemed a shame to respond in such a generalised fashion.
In future I will work harder at just ignoring all such posts.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 10, 2021 19:23:21 GMT
As you well know Colin asks that all the time but doesn't seem to respond to well when someone asks it of him. And not so long ago I asked Steve (who politically is a lot closer to me than Colin) for evidence in relation to the covid situation. yes but Covid isn’t really as ideologically aligned as something like Brexit is it. Truth is, neither side in the Brexit debate tends to check the claims of their own side overmuch. Are you just trying to get you post count up to 100? What's Brexit got to do with it? I thought this was about posters making lazy assumptions about the thoughts and beliefs of others, and the rights of others to challenges such assertions? Anyway hope you enjoy the cricket tonight - my son tells me England may be on the verge of a Lazarus like performance. |
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Post by Old Southendian on Dec 10, 2021 19:30:31 GMT
Certainly possible as you point out Boris can totally trash CON 'brand'[1]. That is probably well accepted within CON MPs who obviously don't want that to happen. There are certainly at least 15% of CON MPs in seats that are at risk if Boris stays PM into next GE (ie enough to trigger a leadership contest). Modest tangent but we're now seeing LAB polling 40%+ (albeit mostly from CON'19 DK and CON 'own goals') so Corbyn didn't irreparably trash LAB brand. CON under 'new management' could potentially rebrand pretty quick but the longer CON MPs leave Boris in place then the bigger the mountain to climb for the new management. Agree that Con MPs are very good at self-preservation, but I don't think it's as clear-cut as the latest polls might suggest. Even as bad as things look today, it could all settle back down into a small CON lead in a few weeks. Then the choice for the MPs is far from obvious, and who would want to take over until Covid is well and truly behind us? Just let Johnson take the stick until the pitch is flatter. And by that point, we may be getting too close to another GE. Johnson has to be careful, more so than he's been in the past, but he must have learnt something from the last few weeks or he's more stupid than I imagined.
As you say, it's unlikely reputations get trashed irreperably, but Labour is a long way from recovering yet. Labour's demise was slow but deep (it wasn't just Corbyn), and the recovery won't be overnight. The current situation is more about the Con vote wavering.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 10, 2021 19:31:34 GMT
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 10, 2021 19:34:51 GMT
yes but Covid isn’t really as ideologically aligned as something like Brexit is it. Truth is, neither side in the Brexit debate tends to check the claims of their own side overmuch. Are you just trying to get you post count up to 100? What's Brexit got to do with it? I thought this was about posters making lazy assumption about the thoughts and beliefs of others, and the rights of others to challenges such assertions? Anyway hope you enjoy the cricket tonight - my son tells me England may be on the verge of a Lazarus like performance. I simply agreed with you there might be some areas where folk similarly aligned indeed might ask for evidence, where it’s not as ideological or party-aligned, and pointed out that there are some areas where that is rather less likely. Brexit is an example of that. Hopefully that makes it clear. Can’t say I’m exactly confident about the cricket, but hope springs… |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 10, 2021 19:35:38 GMT
Colin, you really do yourself no favours with this, "lefty this lefty that" remarks. What's an average lefty?? Or that matter an 'average righty? Not everyone on the left thinks the same just as not everyone on the right does. Politics is a spectrum. We should be able to discuss the issues, which incidentally I know you can do well, without this sort of stuff. Just lowers the tone. You're not alone but you are a regular offender. (Do respond to this if you disagree with me but please do it without recourse to stereotypes) I was reacting to tancred's onslaught today featuring xenophobic roc voters. Plus this little beauty :-"He will pretend to be kind to you while plunging the knife deeper in your back while you don't notice." describing Rishi Sunak. You might have missed Somerjohn today explaining that ROC voters haven't "the wit to read GE analysis and polling". So if you want me to take your desire for more civilised discussion here seriously, you will need to be more even handed in your sermons from the mount. Meantime expect me to respond to some of this stuff. Colin, if my memory serves Tancred got himself banned from UKPR1 because of such posting, and TBH I very rarely read his posts due to his obsession with Brexit. Also we are not the same 'team' - if I recall he is fairly anti-Labour where as I am pretty much dyed in the wool Labour loyalist (who had a wobbly moment prior to the 2017 election due to my opposition to Corbyn). |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 10, 2021 19:37:39 GMT
I was reacting to tancred's onslaught today featuring xenophobic roc voters. Plus this little beauty :-"He will pretend to be kind to you while plunging the knife deeper in your back while you don't notice." describing Rishi Sunak. You might have missed Somerjohn today explaining that ROC voters haven't "the wit to read GE analysis and polling". So if you want me to take your desire for more civilised discussion here seriously, you will need to be more even handed in your sermons from the mount. Meantime expect me to respond to some of this stuff. “where as I am pretty much dyed in the wool Labour loyalist (who had a wobbly moment prior to the 2017 election due to my opposition to Corbyn).” He wasn’t left wing enough? |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2021 19:40:11 GMT
Colin, I do try to be as even handed as I can but accept I don't always manage it. So if you feel I picked you out unfairly I apologise. Perhaps it stung a bit more because I don't like being lumped into a general 'lefty' camp. (I am left of centre but that's a huge range of opinion.) You often have well evidenced arguments to support your posts so it just seemed a shame to respond in such a generalised fashion. In future I will work harder at just ignoring all such posts. Me too ! Thanks |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 10, 2021 19:43:39 GMT
“where as I am pretty much dyed in the wool Labour loyalist (who had a wobbly moment prior to the 2017 election due to my opposition to Corbyn).” He wasn’t left wing enough? Nah - coz eez a Gooner aint eee. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 10, 2021 19:45:56 GMT
Are we being a bit thin skinned?
Back stabbing is a well understood political activity and someone just indulged in a slightly more detailed description.
Surely nothing to see here?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2021 19:50:38 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - "Alec is obviously trying to needle Colin with his comments about Boris." No she isn't. Don't be silly. Alec is restating things that were once said by other posters about the current PM. It occurs to me Alec that if one accepts Powell's doctrine :- "All political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure, because that is the nature of politics and of human affairs." then it is merely a function of arithmetic that you are more likely to be able to accuse a ROC voter of unjustified faith in a PM. Since the war there have been 10 Tory PMs -to Labour's 5............ ........and that is counting Blair as Labour-a label not often attached to him by LOC posters on UKPR1 |
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Post by jib on Dec 10, 2021 19:52:20 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w"The conservation exchanges were interesting too." Yes, he was quite an expert in his field was TOH.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 10, 2021 19:52:51 GMT
Old Southendian
"Even as bad as things look today, it could all settle back down into a small CON lead in a few weeks."
As one oldie to another - it might well. For Johnson, as for the leaders of the administrations in all 4 polities in the UK, their government's responses to omicron may turn out to be a more critical factor.
While we know of its much enhanced transmissability, its ability to bypass many of the benefits of double jagging, that emphasises the importance of the booster, and the effectiveness with which each of the health systems delivers that to as many as it can as soon as possible may come into play.
Equally, if it turns out to be so mild as to be of benefit, then leaders who are seen to have over reacted may suffer, while if it overwhelms the hospitals than those who are seen to have been insufficiently cautious may pay the price.
We'll find out, probably, just in time for the local elections!
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Post by somerjohn on Dec 10, 2021 20:01:05 GMT
Colin: "You might have missed Somerjohn today explaining that ROC voters haven't "the wit to read GE analysis and polling". You do appear to have a penchant for misrepresenting what others say.
You had said (you later suggested you meant something different) that LoC people believe "that ethnic Asians (and other UK ethnic minorities) vote Labour". There seemed to me a clear implication there that non-LoC folk might not share that view (else why point out that's what LoC people believe?)
I pointed out that anyone who has the gumption to look at the evidence is likely to believe that, because it's the case, adding "Which might exclude a lot of rightwingers".
Of course most people, right or left, don't read GE analysis and polling. A lot rely on gut feeling for their views of matters electoral, untroubled by the need to do any research.
I certainly didn't say "that ROC voters haven't "the wit to read GE analysis and polling". I said "a lot" of them "might" be in that situation. But perhaps you think that a big majority of RoC folk are clued-up enough on psephology to seek out and understand this stuff?
Here's the original post:
Colin: "I think there is a general assumption on the Left that ethnic Asians ( and other UK ethnic minorities) vote Labour " I think that's a general assumption for anyone who has the wit to read GE analysis and polling on the matter. Which might exclude a lot of rightwingers, thus validating your statement, of course. "Labour performed better than the Conservatives amongst ethnic minority groups. Ipsos MORI estimates Labour won the votes of 64% of all Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) voters, while 20% voted for the Conservatives and 12% for the Lib Dems. Seats that had large BME populations at the 2011 Census tended to vote Labour. Labour won in 113 seats that had a larger-than-average BME population, while the Conservatives won 53 and the Lib Dems four." commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ge2019-how-did-demographics-affect-the-result/ |
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Post by robert on Dec 10, 2021 20:02:52 GMT
tancred I'm assuming Robert Newark is now Robert. I'm afraid we have to assume that TOH is no longer with us as last he posted his condition was terminal. No need to assume Shevii. I changed to plain Robert on the old site, as the only one, having 2 names seemed unnecessary. I did announce it at the time. As for toh I fear you may be correct. A sad loss to us all. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 10, 2021 20:10:49 GMT
@ Colin - happy to have a serious debate about VI in the Indian community if you want, as its a topic I'm interested in and is very complex, as you have Congress/BJP split, influences of the caste system and class, the difference between the community that originated in West Africa and those from the Indian subcontinent, the experience of living with racism, specific issues such as Kashmir. However, I can't talk for everyone who is LOC.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 10, 2021 21:00:19 GMT
While the media and some politicians here are treating the omicron variant as the end of days. Daily case numbers have ceased to increase and death rates are lower than last week in South Africa
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Post by davwel on Dec 10, 2021 21:01:34 GMT
Having a botanical link with ToH, and noting the worries of several posters here due to his several months` absence, I had a look just now at the website of a Surrey society of which he is a probable member. There is no news.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 10, 2021 21:03:43 GMT
t7g4 I mourn the loss of my EU citizenship and feel it was snatched from me without consent but I'm a realist and if in the future we settle for being 'effectively' in the single market and custom's union including freedom of movement even if this is arranged unilaterally with individual states then I could accept that. The most important thing is that my child now has Irish citizenship through her mother. If I thought she was starting out without the same rights I had in my youth I'd be spiting blood. Freedom of movement should be a basic human right globally and not just within a continent or certain states within a continent. This right was taken away from many Commonwealth countries who fought side by side with the UK roughly at the time the UK joined the then EC. We are all allowed to stay in the EU for at least 3 months of the year. We can still study in the EU. I think living through the last 2 years; just being able to fly outside the UK to anywhere would be ideal. This will become more difficult in the future because of viruses and environmental issues as our carbon footprint will need to be heavily reduced in the future. This will also mean we will probably move towards a post-growth society. "We are all allowed to stay in the EU for at least 3 months of the year. We can still study in the EU" - At the risk of breaking the rules on civility here don't try to tell me why I should be happy with the restriction of the rights I had in other EU states from being pretty much the same as in my own country to now being more or less the same as visiting the US. The practicalities are bad enough especially for those who do contract work in different EU states and it's been widely reported that kids going on years abroad this year had a nightmare of often not knowing what was going on visa wise till the day they were supposed to go and many pulled out. I did a year abroad in another EU country years ago when I was at uni and it was seamless and involved virtually no bureaucracy. To me it's the equivalent of only being allowed up north for 3 months at a time. Practically it's likely to make little difference unless you chose to live there but it serves to make you feel more of an outsider. Further removed from being a part of that society, no longer part of that demos and Europe was my demos. So if you'll forgive me (and i don't care if you don't) you can stick your 3 months where the sun don't shine (apologies to Mark for any breach of policy). When you take established, accepted rights from a group of people for purely ideological reasons it tends to make the that group very grumpy.. That shouldn't really be a surprise. |
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Post by domjg on Dec 10, 2021 21:11:01 GMT
Colin, you really do yourself no favours with this, "lefty this lefty that" remarks. What's an average lefty?? Or that matter an 'average righty? Not everyone on the left thinks the same just as not everyone on the right does. Politics is a spectrum. We should be able to discuss the issues, which incidentally I know you can do well, without this sort of stuff. Just lowers the tone. You're not alone but you are a regular offender. (Do respond to this if you disagree with me but please do it without recourse to stereotypes) it may be true that it can be hard to determine what left might be, but that’s a legitimate avenue for discussion. on a polling site, which demographics and political groupings hold which views and why is not lowering the tone, it is very much what the site is about. And before you talk about lowering the tone, stop being so biased and have a go at others on your own team like Alec for calling people “clueless” etc. I didn't know we were divided into 'teams'. Is someone keeping score? Should I have a kit to wear when posting? Who's the referee? |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 10, 2021 21:20:47 GMT
it may be true that it can be hard to determine what left might be, but that’s a legitimate avenue for discussion. on a polling site, which demographics and political groupings hold which views and why is not lowering the tone, it is very much what the site is about. And before you talk about lowering the tone, stop being so biased and have a go at others on your own team like Alec for calling people “clueless” etc. I didn't know we were divided into 'teams'. Is someone keeping score? Should I have a kit to wear when posting? Who's the referee? We already went down that road and have moved on. Incidentally, your response to Colin, about how you think private tuition is ok, is rather obviously problematic. You don’t like people richer than you being able to pay for private school, but you are ok with people being able to buy advantage over poorer people via private tuition. When they are probably already advantaged via catchment areas etc. |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 10, 2021 21:25:34 GMT
domjgRe: “‘The blob' is likely to be conservative and resistant to change” I’m not sure all Conservatives would be resistant to change. If they want to conserve things, they might very well want to change things from the current state of play quite a bit. New actions and methods to preserve species for example. And “decades of experience” doesn’t even guarantee competence, never mind excellence. 30 years experience, or the same year 30 times, for example. That kind of thinking, along with credentialism, and rewarding time-served rather than performance, is the kind of thing Bingham was on about, and just check the numerous, pretty bad errors in the pandemic response for examples.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 10, 2021 21:36:35 GMT
domjg Re: “‘The blob' is likely to be conservative and resistant to change” I’m not sure all Conservatives would be resistant to change. If they want to conserve things, they might very well want to change things from the current state of play quite a bit. New actions and methods to preserve species for example. And “decades of experience” doesn’t even guarantee competence, never mind excellence. 30 years experience, or the same year 30 times, for example. That kind of thinking, along with credentialism, and rewarding time-served rather than performance, is the kind of thing Bingham was on about, and just check the numerous, pretty bad errors in the pandemic response for examples. and the alternative is, letting any old banana have a go at it? |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 10, 2021 21:39:50 GMT
domjg Re: “‘The blob' is likely to be conservative and resistant to change” I’m not sure all Conservatives would be resistant to change. If they want to conserve things, they might very well want to change things from the current state of play quite a bit. New actions and methods to preserve species for example. And “decades of experience” doesn’t even guarantee competence, never mind excellence. 30 years experience, or the same year 30 times, for example. That kind of thinking, along with credentialism, and rewarding time-served rather than performance, is the kind of thing Bingham was on about, and just check the numerous, pretty bad errors in the pandemic response for examples. and the alternative is, letting any old banana have a go at it? the alternative is, as Bingham pointed out and illustrated, letting people with a proven record in solving difficult practical problems in a timely fashion do it. Which is why she complained about the lack of scientists in government. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 10, 2021 21:45:21 GMT
I didn't know we were divided into 'teams'. Is someone keeping score? Should I have a kit to wear when posting? Who's the referee? We already went down that road and have moved on. Incidentally, your response to Colin, about how you think private tuition is ok, is rather obviously problematic. You don’t like people richer than you being able to pay for private school, but you are ok with people being able to buy advantage over poorer people via private tuition. When they are probably already advantaged via catchment areas etc. - It sounds like you assume I must be a very cynical individual though you know me not at all! I guess you didn't feel strongly enough to comment on it at the time until I annoyed you.. Bottom line is full time education, the env a child is in day in day out and provides their cultural backdrop is very different from a couple of hours on a Saturday or of an evening with a tutor to themselves. My wife toys with the idea of private education for our child, I am totally against it. I have known and have friends who were privately educated and nice people as most of them are they all share this one characteristic of mild narcissism and I simply want my child to be more grounded than that. Also it's bloody expensive |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 10, 2021 21:55:49 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w and the alternative is, letting any old banana have a go at it? the alternative is, as Bingham pointed out and illustrated, letting people with a proven record in solving difficult practical problems in a timely fashion do it. Which is why she complained about the lack of scientists in government. Ok fair enough, but how are you going to encourage scientists to be effectively administrators and however brilliant as scientists how could we be certain they'd be better at it than the current incumbents anyway? |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 10, 2021 21:56:20 GMT
We already went down that road and have moved on. Incidentally, your response to Colin, about how you think private tuition is ok, is rather obviously problematic. You don’t like people richer than you being able to pay for private school, but you are ok with people being able to buy advantage over poorer people via private tuition. When they are probably already advantaged via catchment areas etc. - It sounds like you assume I must be a very cynical individual though you know me not at all! I guess you didn't feel strongly enough to comment on it at the time until I annoyed you.. Bottom line is full time education, the env a child is in day in day out and provides their cultural backdrop is very different from a couple of hours on a Saturday or of an evening with a tutor to themselves. My wife toys with the idea of private education for our child, I am totally against it. I have known and have friends who were privately educated and nice people as most of them are they all share this one characteristic of mild narcissism and I simply want my child to be more grounded than that. Also it's bloody expensive oh I was concerned about it, but I wondered what Colin or others might say, and was thinking some more about it in a wider context. Because it is part of the way some middle classes might stack the deck. Keep the working classes below while trying to eradicate privilege above them. And we have seen a lot of advantaging of the middle class in substantial ways, including the big ramping up of house prices, cuts to CGT etc., while the more working class get conditions eroded in big ways, the demise of full employment, ridiculous housing costs, and just get sticking plasters. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 10, 2021 22:02:53 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - It sounds like you assume I must be a very cynical individual though you know me not at all! I guess you didn't feel strongly enough to comment on it at the time until I annoyed you.. Bottom line is full time education, the env a child is in day in day out and provides their cultural backdrop is very different from a couple of hours on a Saturday or of an evening with a tutor to themselves. My wife toys with the idea of private education for our child, I am totally against it. I have known and have friends who were privately educated and nice people as most of them are they all share this one characteristic of mild narcissism and I simply want my child to be more grounded than that. Also it's bloody expensive oh I was concerned about it, but I wondered what Colin or others might say, and was thinking some more about it in a wider context. Because it is part of the way some middle classes might stack the deck. Keep the working classes below while trying to eradicate privilege above them. And we have seen a lot of advantaging of the middle class in substantial ways, including the big ramping up of house prices, cuts to CGT etc., while the more working class get conditions eroded in big ways, the demise of full employment, ridiculous housing costs, and just get sticking plasters. - I can't disagree with a word you say. What can be done about the demise of full employment, ridiculous housing costs etc I honestly don't know (build many more houses I suppose but that gets overruled by mainly Tory nimbys). I think it's not a problem we could solve on our own as a country unless we went for some kind of command economy autarky. A large part of the world is facing the same issues or much worse but Brexit or vague allusions to levelling up by a chancer are not even going to touch the sides. I'm curious though, do you think private tuition shouldn't be allowed as it cements middle class advantage or should be provided free or subsidised to those on low incomes or certain areas? That I could wholeheartedly support. Hell, private school teachers could be compelled to do it as part of their school's contract with the local area! |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 10, 2021 22:03:05 GMT
the alternative is, as Bingham pointed out and illustrated, letting people with a proven record in solving difficult practical problems in a timely fashion do it. Which is why she complained about the lack of scientists in government. Ok fair enough, but how are you going to encourage scientists to be effectively administrators and however brilliant as scientists how could we be certain they'd be better at it than the current incumbents anyway? how best to involve them, might be something to explore. But they don’t have to just be administrators, they can be employed to solve problems, though in some cases administration might be where some problem solving is required. it’s an interesting topic. I sometimes use the example of medicine, where the airline industry were brought in to improve procedures in operating theatres. Because airlines have to shift millions a day around the globe to tight deadlines, using very sophisticated tech., and any loss of life is a tragedy. And they might be advising surgeons with many years experience. One might apply a similar form of thinking to government. |
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