8-Dec-2021 : LAB: 40 / CON: 34 / LDEM: 10 / GRN: 4

[Old Southendian]

Dec 22, 2021 10:01:35 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Getting back to your original question, another two areas in which peoples lives have changed dramatically since 1967 is for gay men (the Sexual Offences Act of 1967) and the LGBT community in general as well as for those with disability.

I was wondering when someone was going to mention that.  Equal rights for women was already a big thing by the late 60's, though of course it still had (and still has) some way to go.  But this is surely a more transformative change.  Comparing my children's attitude to gender and how things were when I was young is just a completely different world.

Another thing that hasn't come up yet as a big change in world attitudes is climate change.  The 60's was still the time of the 'white heat' of technology, I see that as the continuation of the industrial revolution as a way to improve life for humankind.  Environmentalism was in its infancy, but the slow-burn of evidence has pushed it to 'climate emergency' territory.  When people aren't distracted by things like parties.

[graham]

Dec 22, 2021 9:00:45 GMT crossbat11 said:

Dec 22, 2021 8:19:50 GMT jimjam said:

Neil,

That the Tories would drop to low 30s in polls at some point in this parliament is no surprise at all. As CB posted a day or 2 ago the pace of the change in the last 6 weeks since the Paterson affair emerged is unusual perhaps but that Governments support slip is to be expected.
That it didn't that much, except, for blips around specific Covid related occurrences, has been imo due to Covid drowning out all other politics thus suspending 'typical' VI trends within parliaments.

I always expected this to occur at some point and also expect some polls to see the Tories drop below 30%, quite possible for Labour to open up a lead of around 10% with the odd poll pushing 15% due to MOE.

For Labour to be in a position to form the next Government (OM almost certainly beyond them), they need to be over 40% with the Tories below 30% for period of a few months.

This could occur next Autumn if Johnson hangs on but if he goes it may never happen; although the successor and how they perform is at best informed speculation at present

Such have been the lengths of incumbent government terms since 1979, we really have few periods to study in terms of the periods prior to a change in government, certainly since the polling became more thorough and sophisticated (more reliable???). This makes it difficult, maybe dangerous too, to be certain about what sort of mid term polling leads in terms of size and longevity predict subsequent defeat for the incumbents. Or rather where an opposition needs to be in the polls, and for how long, to be in a winning position at the subsequent GE.

In 78-79, the period prior to Thatcher's win, Callaghan was in a decent position in the polls right up to the winter of discontent in 1978. Those last six months of industrial strife gave Thatcher a late home run. We then have to go a long way forward to the 1995-97 period that preceded Labour's win. Major was probably on his way out after Black Wednesday and Blair's ascent to the Labour leadership just accentuated the inevitable. He was double whammyed by a loss of economic confidence in his government and the emergence of an opposition that made the political weather. Everything is unique in its own way, but the period that preceded a change of government in 95-97 offers little lessons for now, certainly in terms of polling soothsaying.

Which leaves us only with 2008-2010. Brown, like Callaghan, was polling fairly well in 2008 but the financial crash and subsequent recession gave Cameron his route to Downing Street, assisted by Clegg.

I suppose the point I'm making, and it's one purely for discussion rather than any assertion or statement of fact, is that I don't think there are definitive polling models that dictate when a government is on the way out and an opposition is on the way in. Things broke fairly late for Thatcher and Cameron as opposition leaders. Corbyn surged late in 2017 too.

A caveat though. It does depend on the incumbent's parliamentary position too. Johnson, in that sense, is in a much better position in that regard than Callaghan, Major and Brown were. Starmer has a large mountain to climb and I totally agree with your view about the likelihood of a Labour OM.

Final reflection. Remarkable to think that we've had only three defeated sitting PMs in the last 42 years.

Going back a little further the Wilson Government during the 1966 Parliament became very unpopular indeed from Autumn 1967 - Autumn 1969. It suffered a string of by election losses - 15 I believe - and had disastrous Local Elections in both 1968 and 1969. The Tories gained virtually every London borough - including Hackney, Islington and Lambeth.Beyond that the Tories had control of Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds,Leicester, Newcastle upon Tyne, Norwich as well as Birmingham. Tory poll leads as high as 28% were seen for many months. Labour did recover at the end of 1969 and by May 1970 were favourites to be re-elected though it did not happen.

With hindsight, I find it difficult to recall what made Wilson's government so unpopular - rivalling Major's Tory government in the 1990s. The country was not in a recession, unemployment remained low by today's standards and inflation was lower than what we are now seeing. Perhaps it was a case of the hopes and expectations raised in 1964 and 1966 had failed to bear fruit.

[mandolinist]

Dec 22, 2021 7:52:37 GMT barbara said:

Dec 21, 2021 23:58:51 GMT graham said:

In academic terms she was far from being exceptional - a Third class honours degree hardly placed her in the same league as Harold Wilson, Denis Healey, Roy Jenkins, Anthony Crosland, Richard Crossman and quite a few others.

I think academic cleverness is only one aspect of being exceptional. Qualities such as determination, perseverence, practical problem solving, persuasion, likeability made Barbara Castle both a formidable Cabinet Minister and Tory opponent than many other members of the Labour Party in parliament in that time. She was also fighting quite significant sexism as well ( although to be fair she wasn't above using her sexuality as another tool in her kit). These are all the same qualities (including using her sexuality) that made Margaret Thatcher the success that she was. These political titans have now been replaced by the mediocre entitled nonenties such as Cameron, Johnson, Osborne and Rees Mogg, who, had they been born in a relatively modest home in the North of England would have struggled to hold down a job in the local mill.

I am a little behind the discusion here, sorry for late reply. I met Barbara Castle in the early 1980's, in addition to everything you mention Barbara, she was also kind and very actively encouraging to women she met. Inclusive is the current phrase. She became my model for feminism at the time, working really hard to ensure there were women candidates on the shortlist for selection in constituencies.

[neilj]

Interesting discussions about changes between 1912, 1967 and now, which, with some exceptions, seems to concentrate on technological issues. For me from a  working class background, brought up in a council house, whose father worked in the local factory and mum in a shop, there have been big changes since 1967 in terms of social and labour issues

From my council  estate I would estimate 95% plus children went to the same local primary followed by secondary modern school. When I was 15 the secondary modern became a comprehensive and amalgamated with another school. in 1976 out of a year group of around 400, under ten went on to a sixth form college. I was one of them out of those around went to not University
The vast majority of boys went on to work in the local factories, a few became apprentice electricians/mechanics
The girls tended to go into retail
The local working mens clubs were busy and neighbourhood pubs well frequented
Council houses were available and people at 18 put themselves on the waiting list to get one. Often children didn't move out of the home until they married. Grand parents often lived with their children when they could not look after themselves anymore
Fast forward to the nineties and noughties and many things have improved, my nephews and nieces going to the same school and they have more opportunity to go to higher education. But others not so good, those reasonably well paid jobs in the local factories are not so prevalent. Secure full time jobs with fixed hours are less available

Council housing has just about disappeared, replaced by other social housing and private renting. Security of tenure has gone down and the cost of renting has risen.
The communities where most people knew each other and your family have to a large extent broken down, with more people moving away etc

I appreciate this is from a working class background narrative, am sure it would be different to a middle class experience
Talking about classes I think the huge difference in the last 30-40 years or so has been the breakdown of what was considered the traditional working class background. I personally think we have lost something, but appreciate others may think differently.

[barbara]

Mandolinist - how lucky you were.
I understand she was as sharp and interesting in her later years as ever. I saw an interview with her on TV when she was in her late 80s. She must be amongst the list of best PMs we never had.

[Deleted]

Dec 22, 2021 11:28:17 GMT mandolinist said:

Dec 22, 2021 7:52:37 GMT barbara said:

I think academic cleverness is only one aspect of being exceptional. Qualities such as determination, perseverence, practical problem solving, persuasion, likeability made Barbara Castle both a formidable Cabinet Minister and Tory opponent than many other members of the Labour Party in parliament in that time. She was also fighting quite significant sexism as well ( although to be fair she wasn't above using her sexuality as another tool in her kit). These are all the same qualities (including using her sexuality) that made Margaret Thatcher the success that she was. These political titans have now been replaced by the mediocre entitled nonenties such as Cameron, Johnson, Osborne and Rees Mogg, who, had they been born in a relatively modest home in the North of England would have struggled to hold down a job in the local mill.

I am a little behind the discusion here, sorry for late reply. I met Barbara Castle in the early 1980's, in addition to everything you mention Barbara, she was also kind and very actively encouraging to women she met. Inclusive is the current phrase. She became my model for feminism at the time, working really hard to ensure there were women candidates on the shortlist for selection in constituencies.

I met her in 1992 or 1993 on a social occasion as one of her family members invited me. She was very impressive (even if I disagreed with some of her political views) and communicated her views really convincingly. The film Made in Dagenham portrays her really well (IMO).

[Deleted]

Dec 22, 2021 10:59:24 GMT alec said:

Polling, this time on the issue of food shortages - www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/22/food-shortages-hitting-britons-more-than-many-in-eu-poll-finds

Two points of interest: the UK clearly stands out as suffering substantially more shortages, but the US is not so far behind. What is very interesting is that the EU countries are doing miles better. That could be connected to the single market, but the US is just as large a single market, so there are some obvious complexities involved.

Either way, given we were once part of the EU economic system, it's clear that we can't blame global issues for the supply chain issues here - the scale of disruption is clearly home grown.

I think you have to look at the actual questions Alec.

On experience of "[Shortages of food items in shops/supermarkets]" Britain is way out ahead.

On "Shortages of petrol/diesel]" too

On " [Household fuel/electricity prices rising" there are 4 EU member states ahead of us. I guess timing & local rules and regs could be a factor.

But on "Supply Chain "- ie experience of "[Delays in getting products delivered]" , Germany % Sweden are ahead of Britain-which is about the same as France. So the SM & Brexit have not distinguished personal delivery problems.  Surprising ?

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 22, 2021 11:06:39 GMT graham said:

Dec 22, 2021 9:57:54 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Did the changes in the early Twentieth get compared to the earlier ones, like the first industrial revolution, and things like Newton’s revolution in terms of impact?

We did not go there at all - but did agree that the massive changes seen 1912 - 67 owed a great deal to the fact of two World Wars having accelerated technological advances.

Yes that’s a good point. I don’t know that much about it, but the exchange of info. is an aspect that has struck me before now; I have mentioned the Tizzard mission before, where we handed over a load of our secret technology advances to the Americans. Including the Cavity Magnetron, the Frisch-Peierls memorandum, the proximity fuse and so forth. 

(Cavity Magnetron is the basis of the microwave oven, but in the context of the war it allowed centimetric radar that had the resolution to spot submarine periscopes from planes. The Frisch-Peierls memorandum is where they calculated the critical mass necessary for a chain reaction). 

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frisch–Peierls_memorandum

Recently it’s become more common knowledge that the work at Bletchley to crack the Enigma codes was founded on work by Polish mathematicians which they handed over to us. (There was some surprise the Poles had been reading German messages for some time...)

“Forgotten heroes of the Enigma story”

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06149-y

[reggieside]

Dec 22, 2021 10:23:16 GMT Danny said:

Government cuts requirement to isolate from ten days to seven.

Does this represent an acknowledgement omicron is milder than delta, or does it reflect an acceptance mandatory isolation is doing more harm than good?

Represents Johnson trying to appease the pro-covid headbangers in his own party - probably  to sweeten the pill when he is forced to ban NYE parties

[Danny]

Dec 22, 2021 10:35:20 GMT alec said:

There are numerous viral and bacterial infections that have been around for centuries that are still lethal to humans.

I never said there werent. But not a single one has ever been lethal to the human species. Thats the point. A few deaths here and there is neither here nor there. We were two years ago perfectly happy with 10,000 flu deaths a year. Preventing death because the body progressively fails to function properly with age isnt currently possible. The problem isnt really the flu virus or any other, but mechanical malfunction of the body itself.

If whether viruses become more or less deadly is purely random, then across history they would by random chance have exterminated humans (and everything else) millenia ago. Obviously they dont do this or we wouldnt be here discussing it. Outbreaks always fade away. They become milder. Both the virus and the host have changed in their encounter. We dont much change our genetics, they do. They are the ones which mutated, not us. The final state is they dont hurt us much. So...how is this not a definition of them becoming milder?

whether a change proceeds randomly or steadily frequently depends on whether there is a feedback mechanism. Here its simple: dont kill your host or restrict his socialisation and you spread more readily.

They always go back to being controlled, because humans control them - by what we now call public health measures, plus the modern invention of vaccination.

We do not maintain public health measures permanently, so they are not whats controlling these diseases. Vaccination was a discovery, not an invention. We learnt how to use the pre existing technique which is one of the functions built in to the human immune system. In SA for example most people have been vaccinated against future covid strains by infection with covid virus, not by a factory produced chemical concoction. And they almost all would have been vaccinated against covid by catching other corona viruses all through their lives.

[chrisaberavon]

good morning all, long journey from Aberavon to our family in Bournemouth (Kinnock junior to Tobias Ellwwod)
yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/12/21/starmer-and-labour-are-ahead-public-are-not-convin?utm_source=Polling%20UnPacked&utm_campaign=afa0afb9bb-MAILCHIMP&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_494ca252da-afa0afb9bb-312810201&goal=0_494ca252da-afa0afb9bb-312810201
That link from YG might work. It shows that Lab has much to do to show that they can form a government, and, like Attlee, Wilson and the other one who never lost to the Tories, win a General Election.

Family members here think that Starmer should do a clause 4 type of manouevre about some issues in the recent past.

On other matters I saw some references to Religon. The veneration of the Virgin Mary started at Ephesus in 431. Theotokus and all that; people think of little else in Bolsover and Durham NW. Polls on the matter are hard to find.
BTW Anthony is still tweeting on, and commenting about the polls.

Merry Season to all

[mandolinist]

Dec 22, 2021 11:34:26 GMT barbara said:

Mandolinist - how lucky you were.
I understand she was as sharp and interesting in her later years as ever. I saw an interview with her on TV when she was in her late 80s. She must be amongst the list of best PMs we never had.

I think that sums up my experience of her.

[barbara]

Dec 22, 2021 10:21:06 GMT Danny said:

The main topic of interest on this website is supposed to be polling and politics. Yet I was just listening to womans hour, which was discussing polling and in particular that the conservatives currently have been losing the femal vote. Also that what Blair achieved was no so much a general rise in labour share, but a rise in the proportion of females supporting labour. But has anyone mentioned that here recently?

They argued all these pictures of males at government parties has not been ecouraging females to support a party where female voters see males running it and breaking the rules.

I noted that at the Garden Party - sorry - working cheese and wine - I could only see 2 women out of the 19 present.
I suspect that Boris doesn't rate women except on scales of shagability, wife potential and child bearing

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 22, 2021 11:12:03 GMT John Chanin said:

Dec 22, 2021 9:57:54 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Did the changes in the early Twentieth get compared to the earlier ones, like the first industrial revolution, and things like Newton’s revolution in terms of impact?

Not by Gordon.  But there's plenty of economic history that does, and looks at relative contributions of technological advance, and other factors of productivity like bureaucratization, capital markets, education, public health, demography, trade.  As noted above war is a major factor in technological innovation although it has of course disastrous other effects.

Yes, I need to read more of it. If you have any more recommends feel free to share John. I shall put Gordon on my list! 

Not sure, but did hireton say he studied it? 

[Danny]

Dec 22, 2021 10:42:59 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

One of the big changes in UK politics has been the change in 'gender' perceptions of how Labour is viewed and supported. Traditonally, due to the influence of the Unions and its positioning as the party for the 'working man' it was seen as a priamrily masculine party. However, with its shift in focus on issues such as health, eduaction etc which tend to play a greater role in determining women's (especially younger) VI its not really a surpise that Labour is doing a better job in attracting their votes.

In terms of partygate, women are likely to feel even more aggrieved due to the fact that many of the burdens/sacrificies required during the pandmeic have fallen on them, such as home schooling, where many foud themsleves effectively having to do two jobs (which I can tell you from the experience of doing it myself was incredably stressfull and difficult).

Nonetheless as woman's hour observed, Blair got the female vote and brown lost it. Did'nt mention cameron or Jhnson specificaly, except to say Johnson's tories were fast losing it.

Is this, over the last 15 years, really about education, unionism, the working man? Brown lost the female vote and therefore the election beause tories had better education and health policies?

[bantams]

Dec 22, 2021 11:17:26 GMT crossbat11 said:

Dec 22, 2021 10:23:14 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

@jim Jam

For Labour to be in a position to form the next Government (OM almost certainly beyond them), they need to be over 40% with the Tories below 30% for period of a few months.

This could occur next Autumn if Johnson hangs on but if he goes it may never happen; although the successor and how they perform is at best informed speculation at present

We do seem to be moving into this territory at the moment. I dont think you can underestimate the resenment and affect on voters perceptions partygate and the govts attempts at denail is having. Whether a tipping pont has been reached or another event/factor is required for Labour to get there should become clearer in the New Year.

This is the intriguing point of discussion about the rapid collapse in Tory VI and Johnson's personal ratings. It's obviously been a big and sudden jolt, and not a typical sort of general mid term drift downwards over a long timeframe, but the polls in gross VI terms, don't suggest an insurmountable opposition lead as yet. Historically, at this stage in a Parliament, they're slightly anaemic. But to convert deficits to leads this quickly suggests something is definitely going on out there.

So is it terminal for the Tories, the legendary tipping point that suggests a structural shift in voter opinion, or is it a blip in response to a one off event? It's taken the Tories down into the low 30s, a position they used to occupy for long periods but, since the unification of the British Right, certainly in electoral terms, we haven't seen for 4 or 5 years. That may have some long term significance, especially if we see a rejuvenated Reform Party and the disinterment of Nigel Farage. We need to consider that as a distinct possibility that will upset current polling applecarts still further. An upward curve for Starmer and Labour can't be discounted either, if they can convert the gifts they've just received into a pro-Labour narrative as opposed to merely an anti-Tory one. My advice would be to interweave the two narratives. Tory-bashing will only take them so far. I thought Lisa Nandy got the balance about right in last week's Question Time and it resonated with the audience. "Here's the critique, but this would be our way out of the morass." The Tory spokesman was killed softly.

Batty, I would revisit this in 12 months if I were you. Postulating the defeat of the Tories at the next election is highly premature, there's many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip.

On another topic, Israel is getting ready for a second booster for over 60's. It won't be long before it's announced here. It seems never ending. I hate injections.

[somerjohn]

Colin: So the SM & Brexit have not distinguished personal delivery problems. Surprising ?

I don't really understand what you mean by 'distinguished' in your post. I'm guessing something along the lines of 'created' or 'affected'.

If so, the answer to your question, "Surprising?" is probably No. YouGov doesn't seem to explain its question very well, but it is framed in terms of personal deliveries rather than B2B, so I assume it mainly reflects experience in getting supplies from Amazon and other internet suppliers. In which case, it will reflect mainly global supply issues, as well as local delivery issues with congestion, driver shortages and so on at the DHLs of this world.

The upshot seems to be that where SM and brexit are relevant factors, as in UK, a difference in shortages shows up. Where these are not particularly relevant factors, they don't. Surprising?

[barbara]

Dec 22, 2021 11:29:47 GMT neilj said:

Interesting discussions about changes between 1912, 1967 and now, which, with some exceptions, seems to concentrate on technological issues. For me from a  working class background, brought up in a council house, whose father worked in the local factory and mum in a shop, there have been big changes since 1967 in terms of social and labour issues

From my council  estate I would estimate 95% plus children went to the same local primary followed by secondary modern school. When I was 15 the secondary modern became a comprehensive and amalgamated with another school. in 1976 out of a year group of around 400, under ten went on to a sixth form college. I was one of them out of those around went to not University
The vast majority of boys went on to work in the local factories, a few became apprentice electricians/mechanics
The girls tended to go into retail
The local working mens clubs were busy and neighbourhood pubs well frequented
Council houses were available and people at 18 put themselves on the waiting list to get one. Often children didn't move out of the home until they married. Grand parents often lived with their children when they could not look after themselves anymore
Fast forward to the nineties and noughties and many things have improved, my nephews and nieces going to the same school and they have more opportunity to go to higher education. But others not so good, those reasonably well paid jobs in the local factories are not so prevalent. Secure full time jobs with fixed hours are less available

Council housing has just about disappeared, replaced by other social housing and private renting. Security of tenure has gone down and the cost of renting has risen.
The communities where most people knew each other and your family have to a large extent broken down, with more people moving away etc

I appreciate this is from a working class background narrative, am sure it would be different to a middle class experience
Talking about classes I think the huge difference in the last 30-40 years or so has been the breakdown of what was considered the traditional working class background. I personally think we have lost something, but appreciate others may think differently.

I agree with a lot of what you say but as ever it's a game of two halves. I come from a very similar background to you. I passed the 11 plus and went to a girls' grammar school which was lucky for me as we were treated differently from friends who went to mixed grammar schools where boys were treated as more important. However, my sister 3 years older than me failed the 11 plus and went to the local secondary modern. That decision alone has caused her to have low confidence and self esteem for her whole life and has made our relationship very difficult for all of our lives. Grammar school was great for me. I did well and made a great career but as a principle I have been opposed to that system my whole life. There's plenty of evidence that children who went to secondary modern schools were written off at an early age and propelled into low status jobs. When parents tell me they support grammar schools I always say, 'that's great. Now unfortunately your child won't be going as he/she will fail the exam.' It's always other people's children who go to secondary modern schools in the eyes of such parents.
Where I do agree with you is that the loss of security of house tenure through the change to private renting and the devastation of industry in the 1980s has and continues to break down local communities and their networks of support and it was these strong familial and community networks that enabled people to thrive and survive during lean and miserable times. The rise in mental illness, drug addiction and anti social behaviour is a demonstration of the loss of grounding in society that so many young people experience nowadays.

[Danny]

Dec 22, 2021 11:55:25 GMT bantams said:

On another topic, Israel is getting ready for a second booster for over 60's. It won't be long before it's announced here. It seems never ending. I hate injections.

[/div][/quote]Thats because it only lasts three months, and three months from when UK boosters began is now.

It is increasingly ridiculous. Something yesterday said a number of countries around the world are now refusing to buy vaccines. South Africa is an obvious reason why they would not. Only 30% vaccinated, no boosters, and that was enough. The great majority of possible benefit completed.


The UK now seem to be on the path I predicted a year ago. It chose to try to suppress covid and wait for a vaccine, so it now has to prove vaccines work. So it goes on and on and on and on vaccinating people until covid dies out naturally. And then claims it was the vaccine wot won it.

[jimjam]

Barbara (and others) Anent Barbara Castle ''She must be amongst the list of best PMs we never had.''

She is the only women in Steve Richards; book ''THE PRIME MINISTERS WE NEVER HAD''

I have bought for my son and will read when he has finished with it.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

@ Danny

Well when you are talking about any demograhic, especially one that accounts for just over 50% of the electorate, you have to talk in terms of tendencies and a bit of generalities etc

Labour lost votes in all sectors of the the electorate for a number of reasons between '05 and '10, not just women; but in terms of current VI and the issues that drive it women as a group are more likely to cite, and rank higher, health and education, partly as women are disproportionatly employed/involved in these sectors. Corbyn tended to do well with younger women, largely due the fact that he focused on issues that were relevant/important to them. I vividly remember a question time (I think it was in '17 but could have been '20), when older male members of the audience were banging on about issues such as contact with the Irish Republicanism in the '80s and the nulear detterent and they can to a young woman who just said all of that stuff was irrelevent and meaningless to her. She got a very big clap from the rest of the audience.

[davwel]

Two or three day ago I asked Bantams for comments on the accents expected of Bratford = Bradford folk, and he quickly responded by telling me that I should have spelt it Bratfud.

Well I listened carefully to the University of Bradford`s team in last night`s University Challenge. Incidentally, their lady Labour MP fell well short of Barbara Castle`s abilities, and was hardly an asset.

None of the four said Bratfud, and the two obviously from Yorkshire still had an r in their second syllable. This wasn`t a trilled rhototic r as is still found 20-30 miles to the west (Oldham up to Accrington, a reference book says) and I have recent evidence on this from a cousin just retired as a librarian in Accrington, and a professorial friend from Rossendale.

So I am thinking Bradfud has spread in recent decades among younger non-professional people, and maybe Bantams can confirm.

The UofB team did well, nearing the Edinburgh score on Monday, so maybe we will see them in action again.

[Danny]

EOR,
further to the question of delay from positive test to death.

I have been looking through the zoe data by age groups comparing them to the 'death within 28 days' data. While this has obviously problems, its much the same as the ONS death cert count, which has different but related counting problems. Either one is at least a rough guide with consistent methodology.

My first conclusion is what perhaps should have been obvious. Because many more older people die than young after catching covid, what happens to deaths depends on whether old people are catching it. Even now, with claims its mainly unvaccinated people dying, I dont see any evidence its young unvaccinated people rather than old unvaccinated people.

So in general, where case figures for different age groups have moved in synchronisation then deaths have followed cases.

But eg september 2020, there was a huge rise in total of cases, but deaths were very slow to rise. Peak of deaths came 2-3 weeks after peak of cases. Whereas when the kent strain displaced that one, cases rose to a peak at the start of jan, and deaths only lagged cases by about 1 week.

In the delta outbreak, cases amongst different age groups have been all over the place, some rising while others are falling. This makes it very difficult to say which ones are likely to be predictive of a rise in deaths. However deaths have been about about 1/10 those of the Jan outbreak per recorded case. (but there have also been many more recorded cases in this wave, which may not be true of actual cases)

The pattern of last autumn does seem to have repeated, in that early in the outbreak there was a longer delay between cases and deaths, while in the later stages this gap narrowed. Rise of cases to late July led to a peak of deaths three weeks later. whereas a new peak of cases end of october actually coincided with peak of deaths, or even the peak of cases happened after the peak of deaths.

[neilj]

[Deleted]

Dec 22, 2021 12:10:29 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

@ Danny

Well when you are talking about any demograhic, especially one that accounts for just over 50% of the electorate, you have to talk in terms of tendencies and a bit of generalities etc

Labour lost votes in all sectors of the the electorate for a number of reasons between '05 and '10, not just women; but in terms of current VI and the issues that drive it women as a group are more likely to cite, and rank higher, health and education, partly as women are disproportionatly employed/involved in these sectors. Corbyn tended to do well with younger women, largely due the fact that he focused on issues that were relevant/important to them. I vividly remember a question time (I think it was in '17 but could have been '20), when older male members of the audience were banging on about issues such as contact with the Irish Republicanism in the '80s and the nulear detterent and they can to a young woman who just said all of that stuff was irrelevent and meaningless to her. She got a very big clap from the rest of the audience.

I remember that. Corbyn was sweating under a barrage of "would you press the red button" from a bunch of overweight middle aged white men, and she basically said, "I can't get over all the people who are so eager to wipe out millions of people" or words to that effect - as you say, big cheer from the non middle aged white man part of the audience.

[neilj]

More from Focal data
'Focaldata
@focaldatahq
Starmer prevails across the board now

More trustworthy
Starmer 44% (+10 vs. Apr)
J'son 24% (-14)

Better represents ppl like me
Starmer 42% (+7)
J'son 29% (-11)

Better equipped for tough decisions
Starmer 39% (+7)
J'son 34% (-7)

More competent
Starmer 45% (+11)
J'son 28% (-11)

Back in April Johnson outperformed Starmer on every measure

[Old Southendian]

Latest YouGov tables: docs.cdn.yougov.com/7za8e4puku/TheTimes_VI_211220_W.pdf

A quick glance suggests a slightly higher female vote for Labour, but nothing out of the ordinary - needs more digging.

[leftieliberal]

graham said in ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/5180/thread
"We did not go there at all - but did agree that the massive changes seen 1912 - 67 owed a great deal to the fact of two World Wars having accelerated technological advances."

A company I worked for a long time ago (now sadly defunct) was set up originally as the British Scientific Instrument Research Association in 1917, the first of the Research Associations to enable industrial companies to carry out collaborative research part-funded by the Government. It was a direct result of the Battle of Jutland in the previous year when it became apparent that the quality of German optical instruments was well superior to our own. You can see similar technological differences in the "Battle of the Beams" in World War 2, where the German radio receiving equipment was significantly better than our equipment (as R V Jones describes in 'Most Secret War').

[barbara]

Dec 22, 2021 12:33:01 GMT nickp said:

Dec 22, 2021 12:10:29 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

I remember that. Corbyn was sweating under a barrage of "would you press the red button" from a bunch of overweight middle aged white men, and she basically said, "I can't get over all the people who are so eager to wipe out millions of people" or words to that effect - as you say, big cheer from the non middle aged white man part of the audience.

I remember that too Nickp. Having a nuclear deterrent seems to poll much more badly with women than men. 

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/poll-shows-gender-gap-over-renewal-of-nuclear-deterrent-8bh2c0r7q2x

For those, like me,  who can only see bits of Times articles this is the main bit: 

There are, however, big variations in public attitudes. Men back the decision by 64 to 33 per cent but women are opposed by 52 to 41 per cent. So there is a 31-point margin in favour among men but an 11-point margin against among women.



This reflects a gender gap

[guymonde]

Dec 22, 2021 7:24:36 GMT nickp said:

guymonde

"...with the Corbynites saying - often publicly to my intense frustration - that he's Blair without the charisma."

Bloody hell. When you think what the right of the party publicly said about Corbyn, that's pretty f*cking rich, don't you think?

I found that intensely frustrating too, as neither a Blairite or a Corbynite. I'm a Wantlabourtowinite