8-Dec-2021 : LAB: 40 / CON: 34 / LDEM: 10 / GRN: 4

[John Chanin]

Dec 21, 2021 23:36:26 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Anyway, I am interested about how Christianity took over/merged with pagan practices.

An interst we share. What a lot of people overlook is the pantheistic aspects of Catholism and early Christian belief, which allowed for the adoption of many pagan beliefs and practices. What is discernable in Christianity is the trend/tendency to de-emphasies/demote, or in some case even demonise, the feminine. Eostre is a case in point - a great goddess becomes a bunny rabbit!  

It is an essential feature of proselytising religions that they co-opt previous traditions.  Christianity would never have spread without accommodating and incorporating pagan or other beliefs. Obviously Christmas is simply the age old celebration of the winter solstice, given a thin veneer of Christian relevance.  (It is 3.5 days out because Pope Gregory, when he reformed the calendar, only went back to the Council of Nikaia in 325 which codified Christian belief, rather than to Julius Caesar's invention of the current calendar c40 BCE.) 

[John Chanin]

Dec 22, 2021 0:25:58 GMT eor said:

Dec 22, 2021 0:18:45 GMT graham said:

She was the daughter of a senior Tax Inspector - and came from a fairly comfortable middle class background.  I say that as a great admirer of Barbara Castle - which is why I mentioned her.

I don't have the stats to hand but I'd be prepared to bet there were a lot of Tax Inspectors in the late 1920s and that incredibly few of their daughters went to Oxford. 

My grandfather was a printer and his daughter (my aunt) went to Oxford in the 1930s on a state scholarship.  And yes that was very exceptional. 

[bantams]

Dec 22, 2021 8:51:16 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

Scores so far - posts per day - Top 6

1 Tancred 15.1
2 Danny 12.5
3 Steve 10.4
4 Carfrew 9.6
5 Colin 8.3
6 Old Nat 7.8

Not sure where the top two get promoted to but the playoffs look tight.

TW, last year's favourites for promotion, have dropped down the rankings. 

If we use EFL play-off rules Tancred & Danny get promoted automatically, where to heaven knows.

It's sixth against third in a two legged tie with OldNat being at home in the first leg against Steve. Fifth against fourth with Colin at home in the first leg against Carfrew.

Let the battles commence.....OldNat ready?....Steve ready? This is not just robot wars, this is posting wars. Nicked that from the M & S adverts.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 22, 2021 9:34:22 GMT John Chanin said:

Dec 21, 2021 19:41:42 GMT graham said:

Nobody present was persuaded to change their views , but all did agree with my assertion that there has been far less dramatic change since 1967 than in the same period prior to that year - ie life changed far more dramatically on a day to day basis 1912 - 1967 than from 1967 - to the present day.

I would be interested to read the opinions of other on this!

Economists will know that there is a well known book by Robert Gordon called the "Rise and fall of American growth".  The thesis of this is that exactly as you say changes in the early part of the 20th century were far more consequential than those more recently, and this is the primary cause of the much reduced rates of economic growth seen in the last 40 years compared to previously. 

Did the changes in the early Twentieth get compared to the earlier ones, like the first industrial revolution, and things like Newton’s revolution in terms of impact?

[neilj]

Jim Jam and others, thanks for the replies to 30 being the new 40 for Conservative support.
I thought that the Conservative support would go down, but I did not think it would go down so quickly and so far. I also thought it would be due to the economy having problems, not the current issues, most of which have been self inflicted by Johnson
I think as the next year or two unfolds the economy will become even more important in terms of people's voting intention, especially if as I suspect there will be a cost of living squeeze
A new Conservative leader, (and I firmly believe there will be one before 12 months are out and probably Sunak) may rally Conservative support for a while, but I think the underlying economic issues will take the edge off that support
As to the next election, too far ahead to say with any certainty, can't see it until May 2024, but if I had to commit I think it will be no overall control, with Labour better able to form some sort of alliance

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Good morning all from an unbelievably quite sunny day in the PSRL - Steve get your shades out!

Hi Graham,

She was the daughter of a senior Tax Inspector - and came from a fairly comfortable middle class background. I say that as a great admirer of Barbara Castle - which is why I mentioned her.

I fear the discussion went a bit off track. Just one last thing on Barbara Castle from me, I haven't read anything in detail on her in a long time, but If I remember her background was lower middle class / middle class. I do remember one of my lecturers pointing out that the 60's were a poltical watershed in terms of leadership. Prior to then, with some notable exceptions, the political leadership elite was drawn predominetly from the upper and upper middle classes and Wilson's cabinet reflected a meritoctatic shift etc. She linked this in to how Wilson positioned himself as the leader of modern Britain, looking to a bright future and breaking with the past.

Getting back to your original question, another two areas in which peoples lives have changed dramatically since 1967 is for gay men (the Sexual Offences Act of 1967) and the LGBT community in general as well as for those with disability.

[steamdrivenandy]

Dec 22, 2021 9:16:01 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Dec 22, 2021 8:51:16 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

Scores so far - posts per day - Top 6

1 Tancred 15.1
2 Danny 12.5
3 Steve 10.4
4 Carfrew 9.6
5 Colin 8.3
6 Old Nat 7.8

Not sure where the top two get promoted to but the playoffs look tight.

TW, last year's favourites for promotion, have dropped down the rankings. 

what period is the average over? In the last 24 hours the activity tab in my profile says I did six posts, but I got quoted three times and it often it might be an idea to reply.

Graham’s post generated quite a bit of interest so he might end up replying more, etc.

The average is the number of posts shown on the board's member spreadsheet divided by the number of days since the member registered.

I have noticed an odd anomaly though, as young Alec is shown as last posting on 12th Dec, and yet I feel his presence 'err now. Does the board have a 'stealth mode', has Alec developed a means of becoming DNV whilst still filling in ballots, is Alec a bot, has Mark marked him down for obscurity. Mark my words, nothing will be revealed. 

[shevii]

"Labour has opened up a six-point lead after “a bruising couple of weeks” for the PM, the newspaper reports, including ongoing reports of alleged Covid rule breaking at various government parties last year.

The YouGov poll puts Labour on 36 per cent, down one point, ahead of the Tories on 30 per cent, down two. The Liberal Democrats have enjoyed a small bounce following their upset in North Shropshire and are up two points on 12 per cent — their highest rating since 2019."

Via independent

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 22, 2021 10:08:30 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

Dec 22, 2021 9:16:01 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

what period is the average over? In the last 24 hours the activity tab in my profile says I did six posts, but I got quoted three times and it often it might be an idea to reply.

Graham’s post generated quite a bit of interest so he might end up replying more, etc.

The average is the number of posts shown on the board's member spreadsheet divided by the number of days since the member registered.

I have noticed an odd anomaly though, as young Alec is shown as last posting on 12th Dec, and yet I feel his presence 'err now. Does the board have a 'stealth mode', has Alec developed a means of becoming DNV whilst still filling in ballots, is Alec a bot, has Mark marked him down for obscurity. Mark my words, nothing will be revealed.  

I did wonder if it was that. Thing is, I didn’t register immediately as I was waiting to think of some ideas to post. That’s why I tend to post in flurries. Also, some people address several people in a single post which lowers their post count. Given the stats interest in here, posts will be quantified, but there are additional ways to quantify of course. Like Word count...

Regarding the stealth mode, I’m not sure if the board does log everything. Yesterday I went looking to reply to something I’d seen earlier, looked I in their activity tab and couldn’t find it. But the post was there, if you looked in the thread.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Dec 22, 2021 0:29:17 GMT mercian said:

Dec 21, 2021 23:36:26 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Anyway, I am interested about how Christianity took over/merged with pagan practices.

An interst we share. What a lot of people overlook is the pantheistic aspects of Catholism and early Christian belief, which allowed for the adoption of many pagan beliefs and practices. What is discernable in Christianity is the trend/tendency to de-emphasies/demote, or in some case even demonise, the feminine. Eostre is a case in point - a great goddess becomes a bunny rabbit!  

Great to find some common ground, even if it is totally unrelated to polling!  I understand that even the halo that is depicted in much Christian art was originally from Osiris.  There is certainly some difficulty with the feminine angle, particularly in Catholicism I think, thanks to their weird decision (around 1000AD from memory) to decide that priests should be celibate. And yet they venerate the Virgin Mary far more than Protestants do.  All these man-made doctrines of whatever church just become excuses to disagree with each other. My stepson came up with the answer in his teens (echoing Jesus' second commandment). He knew a little bit about theology and philosophy and said "It all boils down to 'Just be nice to each other'".  If only!  Organised religion has provided the excuse for many wars and persecutions.  If we were just nice to each other what a world it would be!    

Hi Mercian,

As a Catholic aposate dont get me going on that one.  It was at the Second Lateran Council in 1139 that marriage for the clergy was officially banned - didn't stop them having kids though, the Borgias spring to mind. In terms of the tradition of celibacy, particularly for nuns, it probably owes more to Grecco-Roman influences, such as the vestal virgins than to Jewish traditions (although there were a number of Jewish sects in the C1 that practiced celibacy).


"It all boils down to 'Just be nice to each other'"... If we were just nice to each other what a world it would be! - ah the philosophy of Bill and Ted, one I also support.

[steamdrivenandy]

Dec 22, 2021 9:36:09 GMT neilj said:

Dec 22, 2021 8:51:16 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

Scores so far - posts per day - Top 6

1 Tancred 15.1
2 Danny 12.5
3 Steve 10.4
4 Carfrew 9.6
5 Colin 8.3
6 Old Nat 7.8

Not sure where the top two get promoted to but the playoffs look tight.

TW, last year's favourites for promotion, have dropped down the rankings. 

I demand  VAR:-)

The snickometer has you down at 4.75 per day NJ. You'd better up your game if you wish to stay in touch with the top of the table. Random posts about why St Leonards got Covid in 2010 when the Golden Wok started offering sweet and sour pangolin.   

[shevii]

Britain Elects
@britainelects
·
3m
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 41% (-)
CON: 34% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-2)

via
@focaldatahq
, 20 - 21 Dec
Chgs. w/ 09 Dec

[Danny]

The main topic of interest on this website is supposed to be polling and politics. Yet I was just listening to womans hour, which was discussing polling and in particular that the conservatives currently have been losing the femal vote. Also that what Blair achieved was no so much a general rise in labour share, but a rise in the proportion of females supporting labour. But has anyone mentioned that here recently?

They argued all these pictures of males at government parties has not been ecouraging females to support a party where female voters see males running it and breaking the rules.

[jimjam]

CB, fair points and interesting that of those dispelled PMs only Major had a mandate from a previous GE win.

He only just won; and, even without Black Wednesday 18 years would probably have been enough for him to lose in 97.

My Labour needs X lead is as much to do with requiring direct Tory 2019 switchers as historical reference points.

A 10-12% lead based partly on only a 2% Tory-Lab swing from their joint 2019 pool but coming mainly due to a significantly reversible Tory 2019 movement to WV/DK/RUK/LD/Green is not a winning position for Labour.

How reversible, especially the WV, is an open question and it could be less reversible than in the past but that will depend on how a new Tory PM and his/her team perform.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

@jim Jam

For Labour to be in a position to form the next Government (OM almost certainly beyond them), they need to be over 40% with the Tories below 30% for period of a few months.

This could occur next Autumn if Johnson hangs on but if he goes it may never happen; although the successor and how they perform is at best informed speculation at present

We do seem to be moving into this territory at the moment. I dont think you can underestimate the resenment and affect on voters perceptions partygate and the govts attempts at denail is having. Whether a tipping pont has been reached or another event/factor is required for Labour to get there should become clearer in the New Year.

[Danny]

Government cuts requirement to isolate from ten days to seven.

Does this represent an acknowledgement omicron is milder than delta, or does it reflect an acceptance mandatory isolation is doing more harm than good?

[steve]

Barbara
TW probably has a board just For the collective to post, it's a reasonable chance he's even excluded himself!

SDA
I think we need a fourth official enquiry on the absence of Alec whose clearly posted his sunny predictions since 12th.

While a reasonably prolific poster most of my efforts tend not to be of the epic proportions of some of our contibtors. I demand a word count.

Old nat would possibly exclude participation as outside of his polity.

Happy to give the old family address in the inner Hebrides if that would encourage a post off.

[steamdrivenandy]

Dec 22, 2021 10:21:06 GMT Danny said:

The main topic of interest on this website is supposed to be polling and politics. Yet I was just listening to womans hour, which was discussing polling and in particular that the conservatives currently have been losing the femal vote. Also that what Blair achieved was no so much a general rise in labour share, but a rise in the proportion of females supporting labour. But has anyone mentioned that here recently?

They argued all these pictures of males at government parties has not been ecouraging females to support a party where female voters see males running it and breaking the rules.

Can't have been helped by the puffy eyed, tearful Allegro appearing to take the blame for Partygate and no males being defenestrated for the debacle.

[jimjam]

Danny, yes the gender gap was discussed on the previous thread but not much tbf or might have been the last UKPR#1 thread.

[alec]

@danny - "No virus or bacteria has ever created a sustained high severity illness. They ALWAYS go back to being mild and controlled. There is no example of a disease which did not mutate to a mild form."

Of all the things you have ever written about covid, this is, by some distance, the most stupid post you have managed - and I don't say that lightly, as it is a crowded field.

Totally and completely wrong.

There are numerous viral and bacterial infections that have been around for centuries that are still lethal to humans. They always go back to being controlled, because humans control them - by what we now call public health measures, plus the modern invention of vaccination.

The bubonic plague still infects a handful of people in the US every year, and no and them one of them dies. It hasn't become any less lethal, but we now have effective treatments that can prevent most deaths, and we understand how it is transmitted, so we can prevent spread. Dengue fever is still a killer, with mortality rates of 1% - 10%, and more virulent strains have evolved and spread in the second half of the twentieth century, with no sign whatsoever that they are becoming milder.

You are just wrong, on every count, at every level.

There is a certain sense of pride that anonymous posters can derive from being contrarian, possibly from being the first to spot an alternative view that later becomes mainstream. But the risk is always that you jump on a theory, and if you lack the intellectual rigour and confidence to accept that you made a mistake, you end up getting dug ever deeper into falsehoods, unable and unwilling to accept that you went down the wrong path.

That is now where you are, and it ends up with you spouting rubbish and denying basic realities.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Dec 22, 2021 10:21:06 GMT Danny said:

The main topic of interest on this website is supposed to be polling and politics. Yet I was just listening to womans hour, which was discussing polling and in particular that the conservatives currently have been losing the femal vote. Also that what Blair achieved was no so much a general rise in labour share, but a rise in the proportion of females supporting labour. But has anyone mentioned that here recently?

They argued all these pictures of males at government parties has not been ecouraging females to support a party where female voters see males running it and breaking the rules.

Hi Danny,

One of the big changes in UK politics has been the change in 'gender' perceptions of how Labour is viewed and supported. Traditonally, due to the influence of the Unions and its positioning as the party for the 'working man' it was seen as a priamrily masculine party. However, with its shift in focus on issues such as health, eduaction etc which tend to play a greater role in determining women's (especially younger) VI its not really a surpise that Labour is doing a better job in attracting their votes.

In terms of partygate, women are likely to feel even more aggrieved due to the fact that many of the burdens/sacrificies required during the pandmeic have fallen on them, such as home schooling, where many foud themsleves effectively having to do two jobs (which I can tell you from the experience of doing it myself was incredably stressfull and difficult).

[hireton]

Dec 22, 2021 8:40:14 GMT steve said:

Horton
I didn't say a probability creates a certainty in fact I made it abundantly clear that it doesn't.

If you are going to critique my posts perhaps you might consider reading them.

OK.

But is there evidence to support your assertion that "every single other coronal virus has become milder as far as we know".  For example have SARS Cov1 or MERS- Cov become "milder"? 

[alec]

Polling, this time on the issue of food shortages - www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/22/food-shortages-hitting-britons-more-than-many-in-eu-poll-finds

Two points of interest: the UK clearly stands out as suffering substantially more shortages, but the US is not so far behind. What is very interesting is that the EU countries are doing miles better. That could be connected to the single market, but the US is just as large a single market, so there are some obvious complexities involved.

Either way, given we were once part of the EU economic system, it's clear that we can't blame global issues for the supply chain issues here - the scale of disruption is clearly home grown.

[graham]

Dec 22, 2021 9:57:54 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Dec 22, 2021 9:34:22 GMT John Chanin said:

Economists will know that there is a well known book by Robert Gordon called the "Rise and fall of American growth".  The thesis of this is that exactly as you say changes in the early part of the 20th century were far more consequential than those more recently, and this is the primary cause of the much reduced rates of economic growth seen in the last 40 years compared to previously. 

Did the changes in the early Twentieth get compared to the earlier ones, like the first industrial revolution, and things like Newton’s revolution in terms of impact?

We did not go there at all - but did agree that the massive changes seen 1912 - 67 owed a great deal to the fact of two World Wars having accelerated technological advances.

[Old Southendian]

Dec 22, 2021 10:42:59 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Dec 22, 2021 10:21:06 GMT Danny said:

The main topic of interest on this website is supposed to be polling and politics. Yet I was just listening to womans hour, which was discussing polling and in particular that the conservatives currently have been losing the femal vote. Also that what Blair achieved was no so much a general rise in labour share, but a rise in the proportion of females supporting labour. But has anyone mentioned that here recently?

They argued all these pictures of males at government parties has not been ecouraging females to support a party where female voters see males running it and breaking the rules.

Hi Danny,

One of the big changes in UK politics has been the change in 'gender' perceptions of how Labour is viewed and supported. Traditonally, due to the influence of the Unions and its positioning as the party for the 'working man' it was seen as a priamrily masculine party. However, with its shift in focus on issues such as health, eduaction etc which tend to play a greater role in determining women's (especially younger) VI its not really a surpise that Labour is doing a better job in attracting their votes.

In terms of partygate, women are likely to feel even more aggrieved due to the fact that many of the burdens/sacrificies required during the pandmeic have fallen on them, such as home schooling, where many foud themsleves effectively having to do two jobs (which I can tell you from the experience of doing it myself was incredably stressfull and difficult).

Thanks Danny for raising a really interesting topic.  My recollection is that Labour was already doing better with female voters (better = less awful) before the recent events, and going back for some time.  So maybe it's not that things have changed due to recent events, but rather that it's just made it more obvious.  But this is pure speculation, and we have figures to study, so let's try to see if the data actually backs up any of this tittle-tattle.

[Deleted]

@tw

Good piece by DF in Times today on the difficulties of a "coup" against BJ

[John Chanin]

Dec 22, 2021 9:57:54 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Dec 22, 2021 9:34:22 GMT John Chanin said:

Economists will know that there is a well known book by Robert Gordon called the "Rise and fall of American growth".  The thesis of this is that exactly as you say changes in the early part of the 20th century were far more consequential than those more recently, and this is the primary cause of the much reduced rates of economic growth seen in the last 40 years compared to previously. 

Did the changes in the early Twentieth get compared to the earlier ones, like the first industrial revolution, and things like Newton’s revolution in terms of impact?

Not by Gordon.  But there's plenty of economic history that does, and looks at relative contributions of technological advance, and other factors of productivity like bureaucratization, capital markets, education, public health, demography, trade.  As noted above war is a major factor in technological innovation although it has of course disastrous other effects.

[leftieliberal]

A slightly different YouGov poll on 'cancel culture' which Maureen Lipman fears could wipe out comedy: www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-59703257

It raises the question should comedians be allowed to offend us? As someone who grew up in the 1960s with satire and comedy shows like "Till Death us do Part" I don't see anything wrong with comedians offending their audiences. A comedian who relies solely on being offensive is likely to have a short career, but offence can be a powerful tool in making us look at ourselves and our prejudices.

[crossbat11]

Dec 22, 2021 10:23:14 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

@jim Jam

For Labour to be in a position to form the next Government (OM almost certainly beyond them), they need to be over 40% with the Tories below 30% for period of a few months.

This could occur next Autumn if Johnson hangs on but if he goes it may never happen; although the successor and how they perform is at best informed speculation at present

We do seem to be moving into this territory at the moment. I dont think you can underestimate the resenment and affect on voters perceptions partygate and the govts attempts at denail is having. Whether a tipping pont has been reached or another event/factor is required for Labour to get there should become clearer in the New Year.

This is the intriguing point of discussion about the rapid collapse in Tory VI and Johnson's personal ratings. It's obviously been a big and sudden jolt, and not a typical sort of general mid term drift downwards over a long timeframe, but the polls in gross VI terms, don't suggest an insurmountable opposition lead as yet. Historically, at this stage in a Parliament, they're slightly anaemic. But to convert deficits to leads this quickly suggests something is definitely going on out there.

So is it terminal for the Tories, the legendary tipping point that suggests a structural shift in voter opinion, or is it a blip in response to a one off event? It's taken the Tories down into the low 30s, a position they used to occupy for long periods but, since the unification of the British Right, certainly in electoral terms, we haven't seen for 4 or 5 years. That may have some long term significance, especially if we see a rejuvenated Reform Party and the disinterment of Nigel Farage. We need to consider that as a distinct possibility that will upset current polling applecarts still further. An upward curve for Starmer and Labour can't be discounted either, if they can convert the gifts they've just received into a pro-Labour narrative as opposed to merely an anti-Tory one. My advice would be to interweave the two narratives. Tory-bashing will only take them so far. I thought Lisa Nandy got the balance about right in last week's Question Time and it resonated with the audience. "Here's the critique, but this would be our way out of the morass." The Tory spokesman was killed softly.

[somerjohn]

Alec: the UK clearly stands out as suffering substantially more shortages

That's to be expected, I think, as we've lost some of the ability to switch sourcing quickly and easily.

For instance, when I was in Spain in November, I found that our local Mercadona supermarket (which in market position is roughly in between Sainsbury's and Waitrose, with lots of fresh food, fish and speciality items from all over the EU) had switched from its previous UK supplier of Brit-style bacon to one in Cataluña. No evidence of shortages at all - shelves absolutely groaning with stock.

The same effect is evident in your earlier link to the Irish import position, which has seen a rapid switch from sourcing in Britain to EU and N Ireland - and consequently, I presume, not many food shortages.

In this regard, the downwardly revised Q3 UK GDP figures, attributed in part to exports falling by 3.5% while imports rose by 1.1%, are yet another straw in the wind.