8-Dec-2021 : LAB: 40 / CON: 34 / LDEM: 10 / GRN: 4

[steamdrivenandy]

Dec 21, 2021 18:03:01 GMT tancred said:

Dec 21, 2021 15:22:44 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

I'll know the sexual revolution has actually happened when it becomes commonplace for women to use that line.

Did you ever try that sort of approach Tancred and if so how long was it 'til the stiches were removed? 

Unfortunately I never mustered up the courage!  So the approach remained in my mind only. I suppose I was always too shy to be so blunt, so I resorted to the usual habit of waffling on at every date. It didn't work much until the day I met the woman who would become my wife. 

So the stitches are still healing then?

Personally I don't think women will ever be that bold with a man. For women sex is psychological.

I'm not brave enough or foolish enough to comment. 

[jib]

Government(s) caught between a rock and a hard place by Omicron.

Feel very sorry for the hospitality sector that this has happened, I hope it's a short wave and the vaccinations / boosters hold out.

Individuals will be making the hard choices for themselves in any case.

[crossbat11]

Dec 21, 2021 17:46:15 GMT t7g4 said:

Dec 21, 2021 16:56:09 GMT crossbat11 said:

inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-tory-party-scandal-elected-1349406

I've always found Ian Burrell an interesting political commentator and while his politics are different to mine, I find him nearly always a thought provoking read. He seems to be one of the few centre right thinkers around (maybe Parris and Oborne are others) who have never jumped on the Johnson bandwagon. Of course, there are many now jumping off it having been obedient cheerleaders for a long time (Fraser Nelson etc), but it seems to me that Burrell has always seen the dangers of Johnson and the essential venality of the man. In this article (see link above) he strikes a chord with my own thinking too. The problem isn't really Johnson, although he is proving to be a spectacularly poor PM, it's the political party that nurtured, spawned and then coronated him, and it's a fundamentally different party to the one that Burrell joined many years ago. His view is that it's the party that should be blamed for Johnson, not be pitied or even exonerated for suffering him. Johnson didn't land on us from a different planet, or appear like some genie out of the ether, he was given to us by the modern Conservative Party. Their members and MPs deemed him to be a fit and proper Prime Minister. It's perfectly possible that this party, once they've got rid of him, will saddle us with something equally as disastrous.

And if we escape the Tory-centric perspective for a bit, isn't this really where Labour need to go with th narrative now, especially when you see the insouciant luxuriating within Tory ranks about how easy it will be just to shaft Johnson at the appropriate time, install a Truss/Sunak/Javid/Hunt/Mourdant and, hey presto ten more years of power is in the bag. In other words, whilst tempting, leave off the Johnson bashing (he's doing most of that himself) and start to prosecute a much wider case against modern Toryism.

I think the electorate is ready to listen to it too now.
  

Boris Johnson hasn't given any indications of resigning, so we could well see him staying on as PM for a while yet. Major, Cameron, Hague, Howard, May haven't been able to get close to the 2019 result so whatever the Conservative members were doing before failed. I don't think he will just give up and I think he will want to finish up with a bang whenever that is. Sunak will be the next leader and i hope that is next year as I think Boris authority is weak.

Starmer hasn't came under any scrutiny yet because the media are going after Boris but i don't see him leading Labour in a GE. 
  

I think the Johnson factor in the 2019 Tory win, whilst no doubt at play, has been overhyped. Once Cummings et al had framed it as a Get Brexit Done election, and Corbyn had become the electoral gift that kept giving, it was an an election the Tories couldn't lose. Johnson is a decent campaigner, and had a wholly sycophantic press billowing his sails, but he remained a political figure loved and loathed in fairly equal measure. His personal ratings were lacklustre until the 2019 election came along. He's largely a legend in his own lunchtime, and maybe one or two of his outspoken disciples too. His dire ratings now reflect the flakiness of his superficial popularity. As Max Hastings famously said about him; there are those that like Johnson and then there are those who know him. The two groups never overlap.

As for Starmer, I agree that scrutiny will increase in direct relation to the possibility of him becoming our next PM. Some of that will be welcome and justified although some of it, alas, will be an attempt to denigrate and damage him as a political foe.

[Deleted]

1/ You’re catching up with my post count Batty and that means I can no longer look down on you.

However, to get back in the lead again

[Deleted]

2/ I shall from now on post at “tweet length”. This is a

[Deleted]

3/ technical term which you won’t

[Deleted]

4/ understand.

[jib]

crossbat11

Everyone knew what they were getting with Johnson. Buyer beware, not someone you would buy a second hand car from.

Starmer deserves a chance, whether he can do what perhaps Burnham could is another matter. He will lead Labour in to 2024 irrespective.

[Deleted]

I cannot quite understand why the government doesn't recruit a specialist team of those who played a game on Sinclair Spectrum back in the 1980s - Escape from Omicron. I played it only twice, so I don't qualify.

And for conspiracy theorists: Clive Sinclair died in September 2021.

[crossbat11]

Dec 21, 2021 18:47:34 GMT @crofty said:

4/ understand.

This was a much more enjoyable post than your previous three which, to be frank,became tedious.

[Danny]

Dec 21, 2021 13:04:34 GMT alec said:

As ever, I remain nonplussed about the sterile debate about lockdowns against opening up. Surely, all the data once again tells us that while lockdowns really hurt the economy, at least businesses received some government assistance, whereas high case loads without lockdown really hurt the economy, but no one gets helped.

yeah right... those moneytrees are doing so well, no reason we cannot keep spending at this same rate forever.

As long as this virus circulates with high incidence, there are going to be big economic and social impacts. Trying to lay these at the door of the government response is a false narritive - the disease causes the disruption, and the best way to minimise that is to reduce the disease incidence as far as is reasonably practicable.

Thats simply not true. The endpoint of this epidemic is where it circulates at rates as high as it pleases but we simply ignore it. It has been suggested if only we let omicron spread then we will finally see the end of covid as a serious illness meriting intervention, and the faster the better! We quite deliberately chose to extend this epidemic and therefore double and redouble its economic cost.

This has gone on for two years. Think how much we could have improved health care is we had only 1 year of covid and instead spent the money on rather more effective general NHS care.

Dec 21, 2021 18:25:50 GMT jib said:

Feel very sorry for the hospitality sector that this has happened, I hope it's a short wave and the vaccinations / boosters hold out.

Indeed. Considering you only get about 3  three months protection and the program began mid september, we might expect it to be already wearing off for those early vaccinated.

[oldnat]

Dec 21, 2021 16:18:49 GMT davwel said:

A wise decision of Nicola Sturgeon to limit crowds at football matches to 500 from Boxing Day.

I wonder how the Scottish Tories reacted, perhaps fearing for their second employment - I have been too busy to follow the Holyrood debate. It`s pretty cold, frosty, in the NE and already dark. Also the last day for schools.

Also, a good suggestion from Celtic - that the SPFL should bring forward the winter break to coincide with the crowd restriction period.

[bantams]

Dec 21, 2021 18:40:18 GMT crossbat11 said:

Dec 21, 2021 17:46:15 GMT t7g4 said:

Boris Johnson hasn't given any indications of resigning, so we could well see him staying on as PM for a while yet. Major, Cameron, Hague, Howard, May haven't been able to get close to the 2019 result so whatever the Conservative members were doing before failed. I don't think he will just give up and I think he will want to finish up with a bang whenever that is. Sunak will be the next leader and i hope that is next year as I think Boris authority is weak.

Starmer hasn't came under any scrutiny yet because the media are going after Boris but i don't see him leading Labour in a GE. 
  

I think the Johnson factor in the 2019 Tory win, whilst no doubt at play, has been overhyped. Once Cummings et al had framed it as a Get Brexit Done election, and Corbyn had become the electoral gift that kept giving, it was an an election the Tories couldn't lose. Johnson is a decent campaigner, and had a wholly sycophantic press billowing his sails, but he remained a political figure loved and loathed in fairly equal measure. His personal ratings were lacklustre until the 2019 election came along. He's largely a legend in his own lunchtime, and maybe one or two of his outspoken disciples too. His dire ratings now reflect the flakiness of his superficial popularity. As Max Hastings famously said about him; there are those that like Johnson and then there are those who know him. The two groups never overlap.

As for Starmer, I agree that scrutiny will increase in direct relation to the possibility of him becoming our next PM. Some of that will be welcome and justified although some of it, alas, will be an attempt to denigrate and damage him as a political foe.

Of course Starmer will be put through the mill, it's par for the course. Awkward photos & video clips, deliberate misquoting and the rest will be rolled out and he'll quickly learn how difficult it is to lead a party into a GE. He might or not not be squeaky clean personally but that can't be said for some of his team. It's the way of the political world. 

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Happy Winter's solstice from a very dark and cold PSRL.

Having spent the last few days entertaining my children, thought I'd pop in to the site for some adult coversation commentary ... hmmmmmm.

[bantams]

Dec 21, 2021 19:33:03 GMT oldnat said:

Dec 21, 2021 16:18:49 GMT davwel said:

A wise decision of Nicola Sturgeon to limit crowds at football matches to 500 from Boxing Day.

I wonder how the Scottish Tories reacted, perhaps fearing for their second employment - I have been too busy to follow the Holyrood debate. It`s pretty cold, frosty, in the NE and already dark. Also the last day for schools.

Also, a good suggestion from Celtic - that the SPFL should bring forward the winter break to coincide with the crowd restriction period.

Doesn't the winter break last three months in Scotland? 😉

[graham]

I wonder if I might crave the indulgence of some of you of a certain age!
I have always been blessed with a very good memory - particularly in relation to distant events.The downside is that vivid detailed recall of them tends to lull me into feeling they took place 'just a few years ago' or 'quite recently'.
In three weeks time I will be 67.5 years old. A few nights ago in a pub discussion with a few friends, I mentioned this - and went on to point out that 67.5 would have been the normal male life expectancy in the UK as late as mid-1967, and further suggested that that was not all that far back. I received the support of one of those present but four others rather dissented. I made my case based on where the world was in mid-1967 -
- the Vietnam War was in full swing
- Harold Wilson had already been PM for over 2.5 years
- we were two thirds through the 'swinging sixties' with the Beatles actually folding within three years
- it was barely 2 years before man landed on the moon
-domestic appliances were already widespread and we lived in a motorised society
- colour TV was imminent
- Francis Chichester was at the end of his round the world trip in Gipsy Moth
- the 'Permissive Society' had largely arrived as reflected in attitudes to premarital sex etc
- attitudes to authority were clearly changing with much less deference evident compared to circa 1957
Nobody present was persuaded to change their views , but all did agree with my assertion that there has been far less dramatic change since 1967 than in the same period prior to that year - ie life changed far more dramatically on a day to day basis 1912 - 1967 than from 1967 - to the present day.
I would be interested to read the opinions of other on this!

[oldnat]

Dec 21, 2021 16:41:44 GMT James E said:

Dec 21, 2021 16:25:15 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

well it’s a poll of sorts. They could do one for every political leader, see how they do.

This one has a little more political balance.


www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-kbMF1GF2A

It would have been funnier if they hadn't included the actual figures for responsible Scottish drinking, but inserted some ludicrously high numbers instead.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

mercian

Does it count if I self-identify as a woman?

Nearly spat out my Proseco when I read that!

Our household took the decision to identify as Pansexual Jedies in the last census (I was out-voted 3-1 on that one and made the mistake of not filling it in myself).

[Old Southendian]

Dec 21, 2021 18:40:18 GMT crossbat11 said:

I think the Johnson factor in the 2019 Tory win, whilst no doubt at play, has been overhyped. Once Cummings et al had framed it as a Get Brexit Done election, and Corbyn had become the electoral gift that kept giving, it was an an election the Tories couldn't lose.

There was also the Brexit Party factor and their withdrawal from Tory seats and targets.  That will not be repeated next time (probably), and while the Reform Party may not take off in the same way as the Brexit Party, I think it's likely to steal more CON than LAB voters.  We can already see the anti-correlation between Tory and Reform VI in the recent polling reversal.

[wb61]

Been in bed the last two days with an upper respiratory tract infection. Turns out it's not COVID! Still feel bloody awful and have slept for most of the day both days. Came here to try and make my brain 🧠 work, afraid not finding any of the banter left or right amusing, probably too grumpy

[oldnat]

Dec 21, 2021 19:40:18 GMT bantams said:

Dec 21, 2021 19:33:03 GMT oldnat said:

Also, a good suggestion from Celtic - that the SPFL should bring forward the winter break to coincide with the crowd restriction period.

Doesn't the winter break last three months in Scotland? 😉

I think you mean our second winter break - from May through to August.

[bantams]

Dec 21, 2021 19:45:08 GMT Old Southendian said:

Dec 21, 2021 18:40:18 GMT crossbat11 said:

I think the Johnson factor in the 2019 Tory win, whilst no doubt at play, has been overhyped. Once Cummings et al had framed it as a Get Brexit Done election, and Corbyn had become the electoral gift that kept giving, it was an an election the Tories couldn't lose.

There was also the Brexit Party factor and their withdrawal from Tory seats and targets.  That will not be repeated next time (probably), and while the Reform Party may not take off in the same way as the Brexit Party, I think it's likely to steal more CON than LAB voters.  We can already see the anti-correlation between Tory and Reform VI in the recent polling reversal.

When push comes to shove at the next GE most of the Reform Party voters will do as they did in 2019.

[Deleted]

Dec 21, 2021 18:59:30 GMT @laszlo said:

I cannot quite understand why the government doesn't recruit a specialist team of those who played a game on Sinclair Spectrum back in the 1980s - Escape from Omicron. I played it only twice, so I don't qualify.

And for conspiracy theorists: Clive Sinclair died in September 2021.

I think Jet Set Willy is more their style.

[bantams]

Dec 21, 2021 19:54:29 GMT James E said:

Dec 21, 2021 19:45:08 GMT Old Southendian said:

There was also the Brexit Party factor and their withdrawal from Tory seats and targets.  That will not be repeated next time (probably), and while the Reform Party may not take off in the same way as the Brexit Party, I think it's likely to steal more CON than LAB voters.  We can already see the anti-correlation between Tory and Reform VI in the recent polling reversal.

Refuk have only picked up about 2 points on average since partygate broke on 7 Dec, whereas the Tories are down by about 7-8

You'd think there was going to be a GE next year.....

[Old Southendian]

Dec 21, 2021 19:52:11 GMT bantams said:

Dec 21, 2021 19:45:08 GMT Old Southendian said:

There was also the Brexit Party factor and their withdrawal from Tory seats and targets.  That will not be repeated next time (probably), and while the Reform Party may not take off in the same way as the Brexit Party, I think it's likely to steal more CON than LAB voters.  We can already see the anti-correlation between Tory and Reform VI in the recent polling reversal.

When push comes to shove at the next GE most of the Reform Party voters will do as they did in 2019.

Agreed, but even if Reform only garners 1-2% on average, it could affect some marginals, and the next GE is likely to be tighter.  At least it's likely to be tighter than the last one anyway - in the end, CON had many winds blowing in their direction.

[bantams]

Dec 21, 2021 19:49:26 GMT oldnat said:

Dec 21, 2021 19:40:18 GMT bantams said:

Doesn't the winter break last three months in Scotland? 😉

I think you mean our second winter break - from May through to August.

Ahh yes! My mistake. I thought that was the outdoor curling season.

[jib]

Danny

You are being a contrarian again.

The key thing is exposure. Most exposure via vaccine. Yes, it will wane, the booster campaign is about stimulating immunity.

[Old Southendian]

Dec 21, 2021 20:00:09 GMT bantams said:

You'd think there was going to be a GE next year.....

All together: "I wish it it could be GE every year, ear, ear...."

[lululemonmustdobetter]

graham

Nobody present was persuaded to change their views , but all did agree with my assertion that there has been far less dramatic change since 1967 than in the same period prior to that year - ie life changed far more dramatically on a day to day basis 1912 - 1967 than from 1967 - to the present day.

Persoanlly, I would stongly argue that there has been more significant change post '67, to name but a few:

• Womens emanicpation  - in the west at least, this has been one of the most significant changes in human history
• International politics - re-emergence of China to its key position after 250 years of playing second fiddle to the west  
• Domestic politics - possiblilty UK could cease exist, end of political deference, breakdown of class based politics etc etc
• Food - massive change in the UK in terms of access to food types/range in supermarkets and restaurants
• Domographic change in the UK
• Technological change - computers/mobilephones/internet/information/date flows etc 
• The end of the 'nuclear family' and industrial society since the 1980's - children are literally growing up in a different world to previous generation
• Also in the UK the number of pubs and the role they play in society has changed dramatically since 1967

[Danny]

Dec 21, 2021 19:47:11 GMT wb61 said:

Been in bed the last two days with an upper respiratory tract infection. Turns out it's not COVID! Still feel bloody awful and have slept for most of the day both days. Came here to try and make my brain 🧠 work, afraid not finding any of the banter left or right amusing, probably too grumpy

There seems to be some evidence lateral flow tests are less sensitive at detecting low dose omicron infections than previous strains. While omicron itself spreads x70 faster in bronchae than delta. www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-cov-2-infection

If you put those two things together, plus the fact the test the Uk is using was already rejected by the US FDA  as not sufficiently sensitve against earlier strains, then you have a recipe for mild infections not to be detected, but for a generally  smaller dose to still quickly infect a new host.

under such circumstances you might expect a virus to evolve so its typical dose when swabbed is below detection threshold, because then it could spread a lot better because the person wouldnt be ordered to isolate.

We may have presented it with a barely adequate test, which it therefore adapted so as to evade.