steve
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Post by steve on Dec 20, 2021 23:28:55 GMT
theex.
You only need to talk as much as me!
Good news from South Africa
"Covid-19 hospitalisations fall sharply in South Africa
In what could be good news for other regions battling omicron, the number of people in hospitals with Covid-19 fell by around 25 per cent
By
Will Brown,
AFRICA CORRESPONDENT and
Peta Thornycroft
IN JOHANNESBURG
20 December 2021 • 6:58pm"
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 20, 2021 23:30:38 GMT
The Times ran a lighthearted article over the weekend about 'data nerds' being the new heros of the pandemic, which featured a composite picture of 8 well known analysts who post their data observations on twitter. Typically, these were all white men, without a single women featured. I thought it might be a good time to post this link to a 2010 feature in the Guardian - www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/aug/13/florence-nightingale-graphicsIt was a woman - Florence Nightingale - who pretty much invented data analysis in healthcare, and she did it a hundred years before computers and laptops. She was the original data nerd. In popular mythology, Nightingale remains the 'Lady With the Lamp' who quietly moved around the hospital doing all the 'caring' things that women are apparently so good at, an image carefully crafted by the Victorians to ensure women understood what was expected of them and to bury the fact that Florence Nightingale led the male military and medical establishments of the day to a modern understanding of data and its scientific analysis. Today, that Victorian mindset remains alive and well in the Times, with their absent minded forgetting of all the great female scientists and communicators who have come through in the pandemic. Some of them are not even white. Isn't that incredible? Batty mentioned visionaries and it got me thinking. Florence Nightingale jumped immediately into my head, don't forget Mary Seacole though. |
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Post by thexterminatingdalek on Dec 20, 2021 23:32:52 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2021 23:43:50 GMT
LDEM's 'surge' R&W. From the tables then they've improved on retention of their 2019 vote. LDEM'19 x-break including DKs (change on previous week) LDEM: 58% (+2) LAB: 18% (+11) DK: 10% (-11) Green: 5% (+3) RUK: 5% (+3) CON: 1% (-9) They are also gaining some VI from other GE'19 and DNVs from 2019 LAB'19: 4% (+1) DNV: 8% (+6) but only 2% from CON'19 (+1) Possibly some higher LTV then after adjusting and removal of DKs that gets to 12.7% (+2.1%) shown to 1dp. NB One poll, smaller sample size (ie higher MoE), etc. NB2 CON'19 DKs moved up to 20% (+1) and LAB down to 5% (-2) so it was the DKs 'wot done it' again. CON'19 moving to LAB VI actually dropped marginally to 8% (-2) with 2% (uc) going t'other way giving LAB a small net gain from CON'19, slightly smaller than last week. redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-20-december-2021/ |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2021 23:45:51 GMT
I do take exception to “junior member” though. What’s Colin done to become a senior one FFS? Two stars? Count yourself lucky. I think we get upgraded when we talk as much as Danny I can’t really respond to a one star member I’m afraid. |
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Post by tancred on Dec 20, 2021 23:55:32 GMT
I predict that the LibDems will do well in 2024. The memory of the coalition government will begin to fade and many disenchanted former supporters of both Tories and Labour will want to give them a chance in a number of marginal seats. Their share of the vote will not exceed 15% but they will certainly gain several more seats.
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Post by robert on Dec 21, 2021 0:06:25 GMT
Certainly some dreaming going on here tonight and nobody has considered whether a) the EU will still be around, or, assuming it is, b) whether they would actually invite us to rejoin!. They demanded our fishing grounds last time round, I wonder what they would want next time? Maybe they'd settle for Aston Villa?
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Post by James E on Dec 21, 2021 0:20:30 GMT
Certainly some dreaming going on here tonight and nobody has considered whether a) the EU will still be around, or, assuming it is, b) whether they would actually invite us to rejoin!. They demanded our fishing grounds last time round, I wonder what they would want next time? Maybe they'd settle for Aston Villa? It seems blindingly obvious to most people that the EU will still be around in 5, 10 or 25 years time, whatever timescale you care to name. It is you who is dreamland, fantasising about it ceasing to exist. We heard the same 5 years ago, with predictions of the UK's leaving somehow resulting in other EU states doing the same or of the EU "collapsing" for reasons which have never been explained, and certainly have not transpired. In fact, the reality was quite the opposite: support for EU Membership (which was always high) has risen across the EU27.What the UK seems to have shown to the rest of the continent is that Leaving really isn't a good idea. europeelects.eu/eu-membership-approval/And the EU does not "invite" countries to join - they apply, and any European country is free to do so. |
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 21, 2021 0:25:11 GMT
Certainly some dreaming going on here tonight and nobody has considered whether a) the EU will still be around, or, assuming it is, b) whether they would actually invite us to rejoin!. They demanded our fishing grounds last time round, I wonder what they would want next time? Maybe they'd settle for Aston Villa? Aston Villa? Mrs Doyle would have something to say about that as she's a big Villa fan. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2021 0:25:35 GMT
Certainly some dreaming going on here tonight and nobody has considered whether a) the EU will still be around, or, assuming it is, b) whether they would actually invite us to rejoin!. They demanded our fishing grounds last time round, I wonder what they would want next time? Maybe they'd settle for Aston Villa? LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Utterly brilliant banter    |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2021 0:27:34 GMT
Certainly some dreaming going on here tonight and nobody has considered whether a) the EU will still be around, or, assuming it is, b) whether they would actually invite us to rejoin!. They demanded our fishing grounds last time round, I wonder what they would want next time? Maybe they'd settle for Aston Villa? Aston Villa? Mrs Doyle would have something to say about that as she's a big Villa fan. I shouldn’t really engage with a one star member but who is Mrs Doyle and is she one of ole Batty’s very few chums? |
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Post by eor on Dec 21, 2021 0:49:07 GMT
bantams Martin Luther King had a dream one day. I like dreamers. The world needs them. Visionaries they're sometimes called. It's usually the accountants who leave you with no money, not the dreamers! I don't totally agree Batty. Some visionaries are just nuts and some accountants have no scruples. I don't like dreamers who would screw my club over given a chance. Doesn't this phrasing come from Peter Ridsdale's defence of driving Leeds United to financial ruin as "living the dream"? Visionaries who want to invest their money in pursuit of rational goal are one thing - those who'll gamble other people's money (and a club's debt) in pursuit of a dream are the really dangerous ones. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 21, 2021 0:50:48 GMT
Certainly some dreaming going on here tonight and nobody has considered whether a) the EU will still be around, or, assuming it is, b) whether they would actually invite us to rejoin!. They demanded our fishing grounds last time round, I wonder what they would want next time? Maybe they'd settle for Aston Villa? In addition to James E's accurate response, I would draw attention to Robert's "They demanded our fishing grounds last time round". It's one of those interesting phenomena that those in maritime states are conditioned to respond emotionally to fishing interests, when they are usually wholly ignorant of the realities of that industry. Both industry lobbyists and populist politicians use it as an emotional trigger, while ignoring the environmental benefits and the sustainable production that the industry could achieve. If the fishing industry was actually of paramount importance (either economically or emotionally) to a state, then adopting the CFP becomes an insuperable barrier to membership - c/f Norway and Iceland. UKGov, both in joining the EC and leaving the EU, demonstrated that it didn't give a damn about the fishing industry - simply using the richest and most voluble - the small number of deep sea trawler interests - as stimuli to press the buttons of such as Robert. In reality, French, Spanish, Belgian and Dutch boats already had extensive historic fishing rights in English waters. The relatively small inshore fishing fleet in the likes of Cornwall, and the extensive Scottish inshore fleet were wholly ignored both then and now. A government that actually cared about sustainable fishing would have negotiated increased protection for inshore waters, while recognising that the continental shelf was a single ecosystem that required joint management. Sadly, the opportunity was not only rejected, government were so disinterested that they didn't even realise the possibility existed. |
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Post by eor on Dec 21, 2021 1:01:09 GMT
Turk The people who mostly voted both stay or leave in 1975 are mostly deceased. Yes, I thought that when I read Turk's post. The maths say that you'd have to be at least the age I am now to have voted in the 1975 Referendum and I'm 65. When you think that turnout tends to be lower in the younger age categories, most of the people who cast their votes in the 1975 referendum, almost 50 years ago, must have passed away by now. I suppose the point to concede is that some of the people who voted to Leave the EU in 2016, and were of voting age in 1975, might have voted to remain in the EEC back then, but to make the statistical generality that Turk is making doesn't make sense. Anybody who was 40 or more in 1975 is very likely to be now dead. And, on that bombshell.......... I suppose the flipside of your point is that virtually everyone over 60 who voted in the 2016 referendum was eligible to do so in the 1975 one. How many actually did of course is a question I don't suppose we can answer - those who were likely to vote in 1975 as young adults are not likely to be a random sample of those people over 60 in 2016, either in terms of voting intention or indeed likelihood to still be alive and eligible to vote. |
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Post by eor on Dec 21, 2021 1:21:22 GMT
I agree with Prof Chalmers Oh no, now I realise I've been shirking by not spending all evening in the pub with my colleagues. No wonder I never get those pay rises.
Actually that might even be true.
Indeed it might @old southendian it's often one of the significant things that keeps the glass ceilings in place despite the (genuine) protestations that "in this organisation we treat everyone equally". Managers (usually white men of a certain age) gradually gain a specific rapport with or perceive a stronger sense of commitment from those employees inclined to stick around after hours, either to work hard or to play hard, and those who can't or won't do this are disproportionately going to be from groups already under-represented in the workplace, and particularly in management! The prevalence of alcohol limits the attraction to those who abstain for religious or lifestyle reasons, those whose domestic commitments (either to children or caring for adult relatives) preclude the extra time are disproportionately likely to be women, or indeed to be men with a less traditional view of work-life balance. And that's before we get to the #metoo aspects of drinking (or even working late) with older senior colleagues. |
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Post by eor on Dec 21, 2021 1:34:59 GMT
Re the Downing Street Garden party Number ten are now saying it was a work meeting as they were allegedly discussing work (yeah right), but at the same time they were allowed to drink alcohol as they were outside work hours. That's cleared that up then... I agree with Prof Chalmers It's not such a facetious point - a German court recently ruled that when working from home an injury sustained walking to one's desk (eg from one's bedroom) constitutes a workplace accident. And more directly to what we're talking about here, workers in England at least have long been answerable to employer HR procedures for what is done and said at work Christmas parties, regardless of whether they are on work property or even if the party is paid for by the employer. More generally, my anecdotal impression is that drinking within the workplace at the end of the day/week seems not particularly unusual if you work in a central London office environment, and almost unheard of elsewhere. Which makes a lot of sense as virtually no-one drives to work in the former, and the great majority of people do in most other places. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 21, 2021 1:57:35 GMT
eor "drinking within the workplace at the end of the day/week seems not particularly unusual if you work in a central London office environment, and almost unheard of elsewhere." In the schools that I spent most of my career, after-school social events on the premises like barbecues or parties near the end of terms weren't uncommon. Indeed, because teachers are like that, we often talked about work at these occasions. Is your anecdotal rendering based on some form of London exceptionalism?  |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 21, 2021 2:10:33 GMT
eor Of course, those who were driving normally avoided partaking of alcoholic refreshment. I do, however, remember one colleague who, intent on having a drink or two but sadly unaware of the law, declined to take his car to work, but rode his bike. Unfortunately, in his very refreshed state and stopped at traffic lights, he fell off his bike in front of a stationary police car - and was duly charged with being drunk in charge of a bicycle. My police father-in-law was proud of having arrested those drunk in charge of a wide variety of transports. Perhaps his proudest moment was arresting the somewhat comatose skipper of the Govan Ferry, which was found floating in the middle of the Clyde one Ne'erday! |
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Post by eor on Dec 21, 2021 2:58:18 GMT
eor "drinking within the workplace at the end of the day/week seems not particularly unusual if you work in a central London office environment, and almost unheard of elsewhere." Is your anecdotal rendering based on some form of London exceptionalism? Hah, no, but there is a distinct amount of envy! :-) Tho that said, I'm not sure I'd ever take the trade-off. As many London people as I know who've worked in the kind of environment where workplace drinks from the boss or from a client is commonplace, there's as many who've routinely accepted spending three or even four hours of every day just getting to and from work, again a concept that doesn't really seem to arise elsewhere. My point tho was just that it is a very different culture in some ways, and the whole "it was a meeting, but with wine" or "it was after work but still work" distinctions don't strike me as being as inherently ludicrous as they might seem to others. The potential for political damage is of course independent of that tho! |
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Post by eor on Dec 21, 2021 3:30:21 GMT
steve On South Africa - yes the acceleration of COVID cases is continuing to drop, which is good news. The weekly data change is likely to be somewhat distorted by that massive backfill spike on 12th Dec dropping from "This Week" into "Last Week" tho. And yes, your points on comparative death causes and COVID rates in South Africa are valid, but that's also part of the problem. Better vaccine rate in the UK, better age profile in SA, much worse weather right now in the UK, lack of any warning of the Omicron wave in SA, it's hard to be clear how much these various factors cancel each other out. Currently SA are showing a 76% weekly increase in COVID deaths, off as you say a much higher % increase in cases a few weeks ago. But with our much higher levels of COVID, a 76% increase in weekly death rate here would be a lot more problematic, and particularly if continued for many weeks (SA haven't reduced their case rates, merely potentially got them to hold steady at the new much higher levels). Likewise COVID is a small part of the mortality picture in South Africa, but likewise if it increases when it's proportionally a more substantial factor then again we have potential susceptibility and political juggling is needed. On the news coverage, I think you're perhaps over-reading it somewhat - a drastic case explosion that carries potential threat around the world is news anywhere, whereas a continued gradual reduction in the acceleration of a case rate in one country isn't news outside of circles as enlightened as ours.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 21, 2021 6:08:49 GMT
EOR
Thank you for your response.
Regarding case rates in South Africa the seven day average now shows a 5% fall in cases a dramatic decrease from this time last week when it showed a 100% rise.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 21, 2021 6:37:21 GMT
Breaking news.
There will be a special Cabernet meeting at number ten later today, bring your own cheese..
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 21, 2021 6:49:57 GMT
Virgilo was indeed the poster I was thinking about. Thank you. I used to look forward to his periodic reports on how the Latvian Green Party were faring! I hope he's fit and well. No probs Crossbat. Who knows, maybe one day Virgilio and other polling maestros might find their way here? Roger Mexico for instance? Roger Mexico was the other person than Anthony Wells that I used to read the site for. Really well informed. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 21, 2021 6:58:09 GMT
Johnson has now lost the darts crowd, not normally known as woke metropolitan latte drinking elite. Similar negative chants were also heard at football matches, although some of the words weren't so polite!
On a more serious note things like this and the Ant and Dec comments tends to hit home for those people that normally don't follow politics closely
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 21, 2021 7:00:26 GMT
And yes, your points on comparative death causes and COVID rates in South Africa are valid, but that's also part of the problem. Better vaccine rate in the UK, better age profile in SA, much worse weather right now in the UK, lack of any warning of the Omicron wave in SA, it's hard to be clear how much these various factors cancel each other out. Currently SA are showing a 76% weekly increase in COVID deaths, off as you say a much higher % increase in cases a few weeks ago. But with our much higher levels of COVID, a 76% increase in weekly death rate here would be a lot more problematic, and particularly if continued for many weeks (SA haven't reduced their case rates, merely potentially got them to hold steady at the new much higher levels).
Just to help, I posted the graphs on the covid thread. if you care to examine when the surge in cases and surge in deaths occur, its really very close together. Deaths start no more than a week after the rise in cases, and rapidly track the same profile as the total of cases. If you care to look at UK data, the same happens here. With only a weeks delay from surge of cases to surge of deaths, its remarkable theres nothing to see here yet.
Although examining the Zoe age group case rates, it isnt surprising at all, because the rise thus far has mainly been in the 20-29 age group, who were never going to get ill enough to be hospitalised. If thats causing any problems for the NHS its because that age group includes hospital staff. Indeed its quite possible since hospitals are high risk for mass spreading events, they are currently one of the main sources of new cases. Which would mean sending home positive but well staff.
We are told 50% of people in hospital with covid are not there because they have covid. Two possible explanations - either they caught a covid cold before coming to hospital, or they caught covid in hospital. Is this indicative once again that covid is out of control within hospitals? In spring 2020 we had two months of lockdown which the government claimed was because it was out of control within hospitals.
A number of people keep talking about percentage rise. Covid has always risen fast. Fewer people seem to talk about the fact cases have always stopped far far short of the theoretical total population. Putting these two facts together suggests that in fact most people get exposed to the virus but few get ill. Always have. And thats why physical lockdown doesnt work very well, because it was never the rate limiting factor.
The other thing to notice from the graphs of cases and deaths in SA is that the number of deaths is negligible compared to the last wave. No accompanying wave of deaths. Doctors from SA were reporting this a fortnight ago.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 21, 2021 7:14:14 GMT
Danny
Reasoned response.
Much is made of the vastly larger number of people who might have contracted covid than actually get tested.
Undoubtedly true, the primary reason is almost certainly they either don't feel unwell at all or their symptoms are so trivial as to not be perceived as worth checking.
Both factors don't undermine the severity of serious illness, but they do further clarify for the vast majority this has and will remain no more than a cold.
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Post by jimjam on Dec 21, 2021 7:20:10 GMT
Steve,
''There will be a special Cabernet meeting at number ten later today, bring your own cheese..''
Soave dress required to ensure it is a business meeting.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 21, 2021 7:40:27 GMT
Steve, ''There will be a special Cabernet meeting at number ten later today, bring your own cheese..'' Soave dress required to ensure it is a business meeting. Government really in hock now. Very chablis behaviour. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2021 7:54:09 GMT
I did not have sec with that woman.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 21, 2021 8:16:59 GMT
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