8-Dec-2021 : LAB: 40 / CON: 34 / LDEM: 10 / GRN: 4

[steve]

Did we get this one

ritain Elects
@britainelects
·
9m
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 39% (+2)
CON: 31% (-1)
LDEM: 13% (+2)
GRN: 6% (-1)
REFUK: 5% (-2)

via
@redfieldwilton
, 20 Dec
Chgs. w/ 13 Dec

This would potentially give Labour a working majority  of around 20

[Deleted]

Dec 20, 2021 17:09:15 GMT js said:

I’m very optimistic of Liz Truss’ chances of striking a deal. She has this uncanny ability of caving in to the other side’s demands while at the same time selling the deals as having the transformative power of opening up the Suez Canal.

Of course no one with two brain cells is fooled but the Tory press lap it up and consequently so do the base.

If ever there was a pig in need of heavy doses of lipstick it’s the NIP and I think Truss might just be the one to apply the makeup 💄

That’s being very rude about our future Prime Minister.

[steve]

Hireton
Spaffers rating now 20% behind Starmer.

[steve]

Attachment Deleted

Crofty

A prime minister who is familiar with how to hold a phone might be a bonus.

[Deleted]

Dec 20, 2021 17:29:44 GMT steve said:

<button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button>

Crofty

A prime minister who is familiar with how to hold a phone might be a bonus.

When she is PM there will be staff to do that Steve.

It’s called delegation.

[crossbat11]

Dec 20, 2021 17:21:13 GMT steve said:

Turk
The people who mostly voted both stay or leave  in 1975 are mostly deceased.

Yes, I thought that when I read Turk's post. The maths say that you'd have to be at least the age I am now to have voted in the 1975 Referendum and I'm 65. When you think that turnout tends to be lower in the younger age categories, most of the people who cast their votes in the 1975 referendum, almost 50 years ago, must have passed away by now.

I suppose the point to concede is that some of the people who voted to Leave the EU in 2016, and were of voting age in 1975, might have voted to remain in the EEC back then, but to make the statistical generality that Turk is making doesn't make sense. Anybody who was 40 or more in 1975 is very likely to be now dead.

And, on that bombshell..........

[Danny]

R4 having an interesting debate with opposition politicians calling for action to prevent omicron spread. When asked exactly what they propose, they answered, 'if we had the information the government has then we could answer you'. Yet they dont seem happy that with the benefit of that information, the government has chosen to do nothing further just now.

Also calling for compensation schemes for businesses negatively impacted by current restrictions.

The Zoe data is very different to that coming from government testing. I heard SAGE reported as saying there is no conclusive evidence omicron is milder than delta. I'd judge thats true, but there are an awful lot of indicators it is, including data starting to appear here.

You might wonder whether the government decided on a scare strategy to try to boost vaccinations and voluntary contact limitation, but its all got a bit out of hand.

The pingdemic seems to be starting to hit hospitals.  I'd imagine its hitting the 20-29s hard, though obviously they wont be particularly ill, even the ones testing positive. Thus far, nothing to suggest any immediate crisis for hospitals except the pingdemic. Overal data not much changed for risk groups. The limitation of this finding might be that although nationally omicron is thus far only having an impact on cases amongst 20-29s, there is no age breakdown for London specifically, so changes in other age groups might be hidden locally. This would be interesting information.

Delicate political balance playing out when the opposition is demanding action and your MPs are demanding none. Governments justification for all thats happened so far has been 'following medical advice'. But now con MPS has concluded this is a failed strategy, it leaves certainly their leadership very exposed.  Perhaps Johnson sees the risk of being cast as the mad lockdowner and being thrown out for that. Its plain Frost resigned because he could not support the concensus on action the government had chosen.  That doesnt help us to say which side of the argument he is on, but it sounds like he has to be an antilockdowner.

[oldnat]

Dec 20, 2021 17:29:44 GMT steve said:

<button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button>

Crofty

A prime minister who is familiar with how to hold a phone might be a bonus.

But does she hold her wine glass upside down too?

[steamdrivenandy]

Dec 20, 2021 17:21:13 GMT steve said:

Turk
The people who mostly voted both stay or leave  in 1975 are mostly deceased.

Very true

!975's 18 year olds(if they were entitled to vote then) would now be 64. If the minimum voting age in '75 was 21, then those people would now be 67.

Given that youngsters tend not to vote as much as their elders, then you can probably say that the preponderance of 1975 voters were between 30 and 70 back then. They'd now be between 76 and 116. Given the grim reaper's progress I'd suggest you might be lucky if 25% of that cohort are still about. There are probably less than 10% of the 86 to 116 still around and back in '75 they'd have been 40 to 70 years old, core voters. So the core voters of 1975 are very small numbers now and the older cohort in '75 have mostly passed away. 

[crossbat11]

I think the striking thing to say about these polls is not so much what they're saying in terms of the relative party VIs, for it isn't historically bad for a Government in mid term to be only 8 points behind the opposition, it's the speed of the turnaround, and not just in VI terms but in leader ratings too. Maybe the ERM crash and the fuel strikes, but I can't think of such a swift collapse in the position of a Government. It's only a matter of weeks ago when they were enjoying leads, albeit small ones, over Labour and Johnson was besting Starmer quite comfortably in terms of Best PM and leadership qualities.

Is it a V shaped dive, and we will soon see a sharp recovery in popularity, or maybe a wide U shaped one and they slowly recover before the next election. Or have we arrived at one of those rare (now anyway, with a tendency for long one party government terms) and exciting junctures in politics when something tectonic has shifted and the incumbents are heading for a long walk to the exit door. For this to be so, the voters will have had to have made their minds up not just about Johnson, but about the Conservative Party too. If it's just the former, then a change of leader/PM may restore their fortunes, if its the latter, and redolent of Major's Government in 1992/93, then the road to Downing Street for Starmer and Labour now opens up.

[oldnat]

Johnson on TV rather undercutting the SCon demand that hospitality etc businesses should be funded through this crisis, by not suggesting that any cash would be forthcoming from UKGov.

Presumably, Sunak was not prepared, at Cabinet, to release funding for that purpose. However, given that Sunak's popularity is at least partly based on the provision of funds for furlough etc, I would no be surprised to see him increasing his chances of replacing Johnson as PM, by later announcing himself that he is going to make funds available and implying that the failure to do so earlier was Johnson's fault.

The ambition of Tory leadership candidates seems more likely to dominate their choices over the next few weeks/months, than trivialities like public health or the resilience of the economy.

[steve]

Crossbat

My daughter describes me as the missing link as I am so old.

Yet not old enough to vote in 1975!
Those old enough to be young adults in world war two and alive for both the '75 and '16 vote voted overwhelmingly remain.

[js]

Dec 20, 2021 17:25:40 GMT @crofty said:

That’s being very rude about our future Prime Minister.

I’ll have you know Sir that I meant no disrespect. I have been a keen admirer of Ms Truss since the famous 2014 Birmingham speech, vulgarly known as the “Pork Markets” speech.

[Deleted]

Dec 20, 2021 17:25:12 GMT steve said:

Did we get this one

ritain Elects
@britainelects
·
9m
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 39% (+2)
CON: 31% (-1)
LDEM: 13% (+2)
GRN: 6% (-1)
REFUK: 5% (-2)

via
@redfieldwilton
, 20 Dec
Chgs. w/ 13 Dec

This would potentially give Labour a working majority  of around 20

There is an incoming stricture from Turk of Texas heading your way Steve, so prepare to have opinion polls and general elections explained to you again.

I am starting to wonder if you’ve been paying attention.

[Danny]

Dec 20, 2021 17:49:30 GMT oldnat said:

Johnson on TV rather undercutting the SCon demand that hospitality etc businesses should be funded through this crisis, by not suggesting that any cash would be forthcoming from UKGov.

Its more circumstantial evidence the government never had any intention of imposing a real lockdown, and matters are running out of their control.  Their problem is much the same as May's a couple of years back, Then it was reconciling both sides on brexit but now on covid restrictions.

I imagine Johnson is desperately hoping for the first credible indcations omicron in the Uk is going the same route as South Africa.  Cant help wondering whether the real problem he is facing is greater expectations of health care in the Uk and relatively speaking worse infrastructure to deliver that, resulting in the system collapsing in terms of its normal provision whereas SA proved more robust. Someone quoted that in SA more people die from HIV than covid.

[Deleted]

Dec 20, 2021 17:48:33 GMT crossbat11 said:

I think the striking thing to say about these polls is not so much what they're saying in terms of the relative party VIs, for it isn't historically bad for a Government in mid term to be only 8 points behind the opposition, it's the speed of the turnaround, and not just in VI terms but in leader ratings too. Maybe the ERM crash and the fuel strikes, but I can't think of such a swift collapse in the position of a Government. It's only a matter of weeks ago when they were enjoying leads, albeit small ones, over Labour and Johnson was besting Starmer quite comfortably in terms of Best PM and leadership qualities.

Is it a V shaped dive, and we will soon see a sharp recovery in popularity, or maybe a wide U shaped one and they slowly recover before the next election. Or have we arrived at one of those rare (now anyway, with a tendency for long one party government terms) and exciting junctures in politics when something tectonic has shifted and the incumbents are heading for a long walk to the exit door. For this to be so, the voters will have had to have made their minds up not just about Johnson, but about the Conservative Party too. If it's just the former, then a change of leader/PM may restore their fortunes, if its the latter, and redolent of Major's Government in 1992/93, then the road to Downing Street for Starmer and Labour now opens up.

Can I have the socially distanced tectonic option please Batty?

Ta very much.

[Danny]

Dec 20, 2021 17:48:33 GMT crossbat11 said:

Is it a V shaped dive, and we will soon see a sharp recovery in popularity,

Its all about covid. while the public in general supports restrictions in the belief they are saving lives, we are now expecting the largest wave of infections since April 2020. Its very very obvious 2 years of restrictions have failed to solve the problem.

The polling shows general support has fallen steadily, while the volatility you mention is likely becoming more marked as more and more people understand what has been done has not worked. Each iteration of failure sees support dropping.

Sage said at the start, this will only end when enough people have been infected. Last summer they said what happens now depends how many people have been infected. Message hasnt changed.

I wonder when the revolts start? This experiment in managing an epidemic should never have been allowed to happen.

[oldnat]

I now gather that UK Cabinet meeting is still going on, and that pointless exercise from Johnson was pre-recorded.

[Danny]

Dec 20, 2021 18:13:57 GMT oldnat said:

I now gather that UK Cabinet meeting is still going on, and that pointless exercise from Johnson was pre-recorded.

Well he's not  going to appear live!

[alec]

@crofty - have you ever tried gin with your tectonics?

[graham]

Dec 20, 2021 17:32:35 GMT crossbat11 said:

Dec 20, 2021 17:21:13 GMT steve said:

Turk
The people who mostly voted both stay or leave  in 1975 are mostly deceased.

Yes, I thought that when I read Turk's post. The maths say that you'd have to be at least the age I am now to have voted in the 1975 Referendum and I'm 65. When you think that turnout tends to be lower in the younger age categories, most of the people who cast their votes in the 1975 referendum, almost 50 years ago, must have passed away by now.

I suppose the point to concede is that some of the people who voted to Leave the EU in 2016, and were of voting age in 1975, might have voted to remain in the EEC back then, but to make the statistical generality that Turk is making doesn't make sense. Anybody who was 40 or more in 1975 is very likely to be now dead.

And, on that bombshell..........

I am inclined to stretch that a bit to 45 or more in that there still appear to be many around who were born circa 1930. Relatively few now though from the 1920s.

[jimjam]

CB, for Labour to be in pole position the economic competence numbers need to shift.

Chances are they will next year as the costs of living challenge/crisis (take your pick) gathers pace and NI increases.

[jimjam]

Right on cue.

R&W best for building a strong economy

Johnson 35%, Starmer 33%.

Encouraging but need Sunak's numbers to drop; some posters are convinced they will but that might be wishful thinking.

[alec]

If anyone wants a really good laugh, try this - www.conservativehome.com/platform/2021/12/oliver-lewis-in-praise-of-my-friend-frosty-the-man-who-got-brexit-done.html

The gags just keep coming.

"...this was someone [Lord Frost] with serious intellectual heft [eh?] – someone who had spent years thinking about, and advancing the Eurosceptic cause."

[By "years" he means "since June 2016, because in 2015 he was predicting substantial economic damage would come if we left the EU.

"Frosty proved these people wrong."

Er, no. Everything that has come to pass was completely predicted.

"After we left, our critics told us that the only way to get a trade deal was to accept a set of extensions to the transition period."

Er, no again. They said you would need an extension to get a good trade deal, so Frost went for the sh!ttiest of sh!t deals.

"Finally, the critics said – as they had for half a century – that the only way that we could trade with the EU was to accept the supremacy of EU law."

Er, no. No one ever said that.

This is the delusional drivel that those at the heart of Brexit still convince themselves of, which is fascinating, because if it was only half true, Frost would have stayed in his job, and basked in the glory of his unparalleled success.

Totally daft.

[graham]

Dec 20, 2021 18:30:00 GMT jimjam said:

Right on cue.

R&W best for building a strong economy

Johnson 35%, Starmer 33%.

Encouraging but need Sunak's numbers to drop; some posters are convinced they will but that might be wishful thinking.

I believe the Tories enjoyed a lead on the economy even in 1997.

[Deleted]

Dec 20, 2021 18:15:34 GMT alec said:

@crofty - have you ever tried gin with your tectonics?

No. What’s it like?

Come to think of it I’ve never tried gin. What’s that like?

[robert]

"If anyone wants a really good laugh"

Just read Alec's hysterical posts😂😂😂

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 20, 2021 17:55:40 GMT James E said:

Dec 20, 2021 17:21:13 GMT steve said:

Turk
The people who mostly voted both stay or leave  in 1975 are mostly deceased.

Around 10% of those who voted Leave in 2016 are also now deceased - as are 5% of those who voted Remain.

glad I didn’t vote then 

[Deleted]

Dec 20, 2021 18:55:49 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Dec 20, 2021 17:55:40 GMT James E said:

Around 10% of those who voted Leave in 2016 are also now deceased - as are 5% of those who voted Remain.

glad I didn’t vote then 

Is fear of death the reason you actually never vote?

Seems a sensible precaution really.

[Deleted]

Dec 20, 2021 18:51:36 GMT robert said:

"If anyone wants a really good laugh"

Just read Alec's hysterical posts😂😂😂

They certainly contain more humour than yours.