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Post by tancred on Dec 20, 2021 14:38:30 GMT
Graham:
Joining the union was voted in by the very people who voted it out 40 odd years later. Why that happened is the question.It might be a good idea for you to study the age breakdown of voting in the 1975 and 2016 referendums before repeating this statement. Were you to do so, you would discover that the most eurosceptic age cohort in 1975 (those aged 18 to 29) were still the most eurosceptic in 2016 (by then aged at least 59- 70). And, of course, your statement that "the union was voted in by the very people who voted it out 40 odd years later" overlooks the rather obvious point that a majority of those who voted in 2016 (ie those aged 18-59) were not part of the 1975 electorate. Those are Turk's comments - not mine! I have specifically stated that there was no vote to join the EU.
Why should there have been? The EEC simply evolved into the EU. This was always part of the vision of the EEC so no vote was ever needed. |
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Post by graham on Dec 20, 2021 14:49:37 GMT
Those are Turk's comments - not mine! I have specifically stated that there was no vote to join the EU.
Why should there have been? The EEC simply evolved into the EU. This was always part of the vision of the EEC so no vote was ever needed. But there was no vote to join the EEC either! |
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Post by guymonde on Dec 20, 2021 14:59:22 GMT
Steve don't you at least feel safe in the hands of our new chief brexit negotiator? youtu.be/n_wkO4hk07oDoes anybody else get Kung Fu Jesus popping up in that YouTube? Is it a subliminal advertising message that Truss is the Messiah (and dead tough)? |
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Post by tancred on Dec 20, 2021 15:04:21 GMT
Why should there have been? The EEC simply evolved into the EU. This was always part of the vision of the EEC so no vote was ever needed. But there was no vote to join the EEC either! Of course there was - the 1975 vote. There was no vote to decide whether to join in the first place, that's true, but a Tory government was elected with a manifesto promise to join the EEC if it felt the conditions were right, so this was an endorsement of joining. |
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Post by hireton on Dec 20, 2021 15:14:52 GMT
Labour open up 13pt lead in Wales:
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Post by robert on Dec 20, 2021 15:17:47 GMT
graham/Somerjohn "That is not quite how things panned out in the early to mid 1970s. The UK joined the EEC on 1st January 1973 , but no Referendum was held until the beginning of June 1975 - ie almost two and a half years later." That is of course correct. And we only got a vote then because Wilson did a 'Cameron', as his party was split on the issue, just as the Tories were in 2015. But that was a vote on the Common Market, nowhere on that ballot paper did it state in capital letters, that the common market was only a step in a process and that it would morph into a political union within 2 decades, with the eventual aim being, a United States of Europe and without any further consultation with the people, on the issue. It may well have been clear to political wonks whose bedtime reading included the Treaty of Rome but let's face it, that book was probably never on the bestsellers list in W.H. Smith! Until 2016 there has never been a vote on our membership of the EU.
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Post by Old Southendian on Dec 20, 2021 15:19:24 GMT
Redfield and Wilton poll out at 5pm. Suggestions online from reliable sources that it will be interesting but no indication in what way. Guess we will have to wait and see. It will be the first poll (i think) with fieldwork done post the by-election. That may or may not be significant, difficult to know what effect something like that has, my guess would be small, if anything significant shows up at all. Looking forward to that. Probably not so many more polls before Christmas, so this could even be the last one for some time. Maybe one more YouGov?
On another topic, I'm hearing surprisingly little on conspiracy theories about the latest partygate photograph. I'd have thought this was an obvious target. Firstly who took the photo and made it public? (Dominic Cummings has got to be somewhere in the running on that one.) And if you accept the Dom as a key candidate, what to make of the fact that it was only a few days after this photo was taken that he had his own run in with the media? Could he have used this photo to persuade Johnson to keep him on? That's just off the top of my head, but surely it must have occurred to many people before now. By conspiracy theory standards, this doesn't seem so fanciful.
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Post by jimjam on Dec 20, 2021 15:24:19 GMT
'Interesting' means 2-3% different from last week imo and certainly nothing that beyond what could just be at the edge of MOE of 5% Lab lead over Cons.
Maybe LD 2-3% boost which can happen after By-Election win and extra exposure, usually drifts back in the coming weeks though.
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Post by statgeek on Dec 20, 2021 15:46:55 GMT
Pleeeeeeeeeeease ............. can we have a separate thread for Covid? We have one, but the arguers want to argue. Such is the nature of two dickheads that can't leave the pub to have their fight. The landlord ought to act, but...nothing changes. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 20, 2021 15:56:15 GMT
By the way, do any of the old UKPR veterans amongst us remember the name of the poster who used to regularly update us all on polls and election results from all over Europe? He was a lovely fellow who disappeared many years ago. I used to thoroughly enjoy his updates and I learned an awful lot from him. My bet is that Jim Jam can remember him. Did you mean Virgilio? He was handy at stats too, IIRC. |
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Post by Danny on Dec 20, 2021 15:57:16 GMT
John Campbell daily roundup of interesting covid facts.... 50% of people being admitted to hospital in London with omicron were not admitted because they are ill because of omicron. Research from Honk Kong demonstrates omicron is more likely to colonise the bronchae rather than the alveolae. This is rather more cold like, and is important because people dying from covid were dying because their alveolae were dissolving and filling with goo. It also means the virus is being poduced closer to the exit from the body, so considered easier to get exhaled. Experiments were performed on samples of lung tissue from humans taken for some or other medical reason. omicron was replicating x10 slower in alveolae, and x70 faster in bonchae than original strain. www.youtube.com/watch?v=84XMFVcLScwBoth findings consistent with what was reported from South Africa, many incidental cases reaching hospital and outcomes much milder. |
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Post by jimjam on Dec 20, 2021 15:59:26 GMT
That Wales poll is a little interesting but the main point for me is that Labour are still down from the GE 2% even though the cons are down 10%.
Reform only 1-2% more than BXP but LDs down 3 with PC up 3 and Greens up around 5.
Perhaps some churn with LD - Lab and Lab - Green/PC; plus Tory to all 4 in small numbers.
Guess many Tories to DK/WNV in line with UK polls.
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Post by jimjam on Dec 20, 2021 16:00:55 GMT
CB - It was Virgilio, Carfew beat me to it; or would have done if I had remembered!
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 20, 2021 16:01:04 GMT
It may well have been clear to political wonks whose bedtime reading included the Treaty of Rome but let's face it, that book was probably never on the bestsellers list in W.H. Smith! I wasn’t even a teenager at the time, and I didn’t read the Treaty of Rome either. Strangely, nor did the matter seem to pop up in books I was reading at the time, by Fleming, Forsyth, Chesterton, Orwell, Tolstoy… ...ok, maybe not Tolstoy. |
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Post by shevii on Dec 20, 2021 16:16:43 GMT
That Wales poll is a little interesting but the main point for me is that Labour are still down from the GE 2% even though the cons are down 10%. Reform only 1-2% more than BXP but LDs down 3 with PC up 3 and Greens up around 5. Perhaps some churn with LD - Lab and Lab - Green/PC; plus Tory to all 4 in small numbers. Guess many Tories to DK/WNV in line with UK polls. The tweet I saw made it 7 Lab gains and 7 Con losses so pretty decent for Labour and maybe unscientifically I do think there are some "red Wall" comparisons to be made. Also the Mark Drakeford factor who seems to be popular, whereas we only really have Andy Burnham in the North West that might have the same positive influence for Labour (but less seats in Greater Manchester that Labour need to target than the rest of the North I think). As you say difficult to know the true position with the Con don't knows but Labour should be relatively happy with this one. |
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Post by neilj on Dec 20, 2021 16:23:06 GMT
Re the garden party in Downing Street
Number ten are now saying it was a work meeting as they were allegedly discussing work (yeah right), but at the same time they were allowed to drink alcohol as they were outside work hours.
That's cleared that up then...
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Post by jib on Dec 20, 2021 16:26:57 GMT
Re the garden party in Downing Street Number ten are now saying it was a work meeting as they were allegedly discussing work (yeah right), but at the same time they were allowed to drink alcohol as they were outside work hours. That's cleared that up then... I'm more interested in who took it?(the photographer) The king in waiting? |
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Post by superted on Dec 20, 2021 16:42:27 GMT
Redfield and Wilton poll out at 5pm. Suggestions online from reliable sources that it will be interesting Has anyone ever put out a rumour that a new poll will be "uninteresting" ?  Don't know but plenty of polls don't get any mention beforehand and the ones that do tend to be the more interesting ones. The guy has been right before, we'll see. |
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Post by superted on Dec 20, 2021 16:43:58 GMT
'Interesting' means 2-3% different from last week imo and certainly nothing that beyond what could just be at the edge of MOE of 5% Lab lead over Cons. Maybe LD 2-3% boost which can happen after By-Election win and extra exposure, usually drifts back in the coming weeks though. Interesting was my word whereas his was a bit more extreme. FWIW, i agree with your analysis |
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Post by turk on Dec 20, 2021 16:45:10 GMT
There seems to be some doubt as to whether people actually voted to be part of the then common market. As most know the Labour government promised a vote on continued membership of the common market after Heath signed the U.K. up in 1973 the vote went through in1975 .17,378,581 said yes 8,470,073 said no. So as per my previous entry the people who mainly voted yes first time round ,after 40 odd years mainly voted out in 2016.
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Post by tancred on Dec 20, 2021 16:49:07 GMT
There seems to be some doubt as to whether people actually voted to be part of the then common market. As most know the Labour government promised a vote on continued membership of the common market after Heath signed the U.K. up in 1973 the vote went through in1975 .17,378,581 said yes 8,470,073 said no. So as per my previous entry the people who mainly voted yes first time round ,after 40 odd years mainly voted out in 2016. Most of those who voted yes in 1975 were no longer living in 2016! In 1975 it was mostly the younger voters who voted out, and these became the leave voters in 2016! |
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Post by hireton on Dec 20, 2021 17:02:31 GMT
R&W record their largest Labour lead:
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 20, 2021 17:06:47 GMT
Re the Downing Street Garden party Number ten are now saying it was a work meeting as they were allegedly discussing work (yeah right), but at the same time they were allowed to drink alcohol as they were outside work hours. That's cleared that up then... I agree with Prof Chalmers |
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Post by js on Dec 20, 2021 17:09:15 GMT
I’m very optimistic of Liz Truss’ chances of striking a deal. She has this uncanny ability of caving in to the other side’s demands while at the same time selling the deals as having the transformative power of opening up the Suez Canal.
Of course no one with two brain cells is fooled but the Tory press lap it up and consequently so do the base.
If ever there was a pig in need of heavy doses of lipstick it’s the NIP and I think Truss might just be the one to apply the makeup 💄
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Post by Danny on Dec 20, 2021 17:09:46 GMT
Re the Downing Street Garden party Number ten are now saying it was a work meeting as they were allegedly discussing work (yeah right), but at the same time they were allowed to drink alcohol as they were outside work hours. That's cleared that up then... Someone on R4 whose working day ran on quite legitimately he claimed in working meetings, said they were fined by the police for an illegal gathering. Yet here is the government claiming much the same thing was perfectly legal. |
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Post by Old Southendian on Dec 20, 2021 17:12:13 GMT
I agree with Prof Chalmers Oh no, now I realise I've been shirking by not spending all evening in the pub with my colleagues. No wonder I never get those pay rises.
Actually that might even be true.
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Post by graham on Dec 20, 2021 17:14:56 GMT
There seems to be some doubt as to whether people actually voted to be part of the then common market. As most know the Labour government promised a vote on continued membership of the common market after Heath signed the U.K. up in 1973 the vote went through in1975 .17,378,581 said yes 8,470,073 said no. So as per my previous entry the people who mainly voted yes first time round ,after 40 odd years mainly voted out in 2016. The 1975 Referendum was a vote to' Remain' - not a vote to'Join'. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 20, 2021 17:15:17 GMT
By the way, do any of the old UKPR veterans amongst us remember the name of the poster who used to regularly update us all on polls and election results from all over Europe? He was a lovely fellow who disappeared many years ago. I used to thoroughly enjoy his updates and I learned an awful lot from him. My bet is that Jim Jam can remember him. Did you mean Virgilio? He was handy at stats too, IIRC. Virgilo was indeed the poster I was thinking about. Thank you. I used to look forward to his periodic reports on how the Latvian Green Party were faring! I hope he's fit and well. |
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Post by steve on Dec 20, 2021 17:21:13 GMT
Turk
The people who mostly voted both stay or leave in 1975 are mostly deceased.
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Post by hireton on Dec 20, 2021 17:23:29 GMT
R&W also record their lowest approval rating for Johnson:
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