hireton
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Post by hireton on Dec 18, 2021 22:42:10 GMT
steamdrivenandyWell the EU is an amalgamation of nation states, but we negotiate with their Federalised structure in Brussels. I hope that helps. You need to understand the meaning of federal. |
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Post by jib on Dec 18, 2021 22:46:53 GMT
hiretonIgnorance is bliss for some when it came to the Superstate project!
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 18, 2021 22:50:37 GMT
JiB
"Well the EU is an amalgamation of nation states, but we negotiate with their Federalised structure in Brussels."
More accurately -
Well the EU is a union of independent states, but the amalgamation of nations (that the UK has become) permits the government representing the largest of these to negotiate with the representatives of all these member states in Brussels, while the others have no role whatsoever.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 18, 2021 22:52:08 GMT
hireton Ignorance is bliss for some when it came to the Superstate project! No need to be so hard on yourself! You aren't ignorant - just a little misguided. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 18, 2021 22:53:41 GMT
steamdrivenandy Well the EU is an amalgamation of nation states, but we negotiate with their Federalised structure in Brussels. I hope that helps. I'd still rather have them than our current set of chancers. I can't help feeling that Labour supporting Brexiteers must be silently berating themselves for enabling the governments we've had for the last five years or so. |
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 18, 2021 23:01:27 GMT
I have sought refuge from the Strictly Come Dancing Final on BBC and taken to my computer upstairs, still smarting from a pointless journey to Villa Park this afternoon. I got to within about 4 miles of the ground when a mate rang to inform me that the game had been called off. Ironically, I was driving around the big roundabout on the Coventry Road at the time, just a few hundred yards from St Andrews, the home of Birmingham City FC. The blue and white gods were laughing down at me. I turned back home, now a 35 mile journey to the Cotswolds and went past the infamous McDonalds drive-thru, the scene of a bust up between veteran Villa and Blues hooligan firms in 2002. A fight made legend in the hooligan literature that became quite urban chic at the time. The Zulus met Villa Hardcore. One for the purists, I think. I drove quickly away, considering I had a Villa badge displayed in my rear car window! I only take this route to Villa Park now to avoid the recently imposed Emission Zone in Birmingham City centre. £8 for an old diesel banger like mine with a pre 2014 engine. £60 fine if you don't cough up. (Incidentally, it's worked very well, cutting the toxic NO2 emissions in the middle of Birmingham drastically. Bravo to Birmingham City Council - Labour controlled - and the Tory City Mayor, Andy Street. A good combination and Street is a class act, as is the Labour Leader of the Council. They're doing good work in tandem.) Anyway, I digress. I'm stuck on my PC with idle time on my hands, so a bit of musing. I muse tonight on the notion of political glory-hunters being present amongst the electorate; voters who are promiscuous and easily swayed. Let me explain. I've always been intrigued by how newly elected governments get an instant bounce in the polls after the election before actually doing anything. Sometimes this bounce is sizeable (3-5%) and must be partially explained by voters jumping on the open-topped winning bus, just for the victory parade. I remember Anthony describing how some voters even "misremember" how they voted in the election, claiming that they voted for the winning party when, in fact, they didn't. There is something very human about all this; a desire to be associated with success and a wish to be seen as a wise decision-maker. The need to always back winners as a mark of self-respect. I wonder if (and I think it must, actually) work in reverse? A flight from failure and a wish to abandon an obviously ailing and sinking ship. Is this another danger for the Tories now? They've been a winning party in the eyes of voters for a long time now, and I'm sure they've attracted many promiscuous voters along the way; voters who travel very ideology-lite and who may have been repelled by Labour by dint of the party's association with defeat and failure. If they lose they must be bad and if they win they must be good. How significant is this voting determinant? If it is, then these shattering by election defeats for the Tories, starting to pile up now, may impose on the party a whiff of atrophy and failure that sends voters running in search of winners elsewhere. I suppose you could argue that political glory hunting is one of the generators of the elusive "Big Mo". Interesting thoughts. |
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 18, 2021 23:03:30 GMT
Rumours of Downing Street sackings afoot tonight Inc The Cabinet Secretary & The Chief Whip!
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Post by jib on Dec 18, 2021 23:07:30 GMT
steamdrivenandyThat's very much a "what if" scenario.... What if Brown hadn't bottled it in 2007, what if the Lib Dems had realised who they really were getting into bed with in 2010....
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 18, 2021 23:12:22 GMT
How will negotiations with the European union continue without a pair of union Jack socks wearing a David Frost?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2021 23:18:30 GMT
As it is Stalin's 143rd birthday today, it is quite interesting to recall how he balanced between the centre of the party and the centre of the "voters" (until 1936 those who employed people had no voting right). I don't mean as a joke or as a parallel, just as a kind of thought process line (even if it takes off the path).
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Post by alec on Dec 18, 2021 23:27:30 GMT
hireton - The Guardian is saying Frost was to resign at the end of January, which makes more sense, but nonetheless, the timing and leak is interesting. I suspect that Frost is blustering about his reasons. He, more than most of this sorry bunch, needed to find an excuse to bail out before the plane crashes to earth. It's clear that his approach to Brexit, typical of the over zealous new convert, has failed, and reality is breaking over the decision makers that are left in the government. Brexit is a disaster, and it is uniquely Frost's own personal disaster, so best jump now, so he can proceed to blame everyone left for being too soft. 'It was all going so well until I left....' I had previously thought that Brexit would be a slow burn, with little manifest failure other than the 'slow puncture' style comparative decline that gets little noticed by voters who cannot live in a counterfactual world. But I didn't count on Frost, and his ability to sway Johnson. They have done a great favour to the pro EU cause. The Brexit they delivered was way worse than I expected, and the results are having a deep and immediate impact beyond what I could have envisaged. The government cannot carry on down this path, and the Brexit extremists cannot countenance any other way: there lies betrayal! So I think Brexit becomes more and more toxic for Conservatives as time passes, and as the promise evaporates, the internal divisions and blame grow. Somehow, they need to find their own Kinnock to take back the party from the swivel eyed loons, and then they need to work out how to neuter Farage and his ilk, and it won't be pretty. Cameron called the referendum to stop his party 'banging on and on about Europe', but I now suspect that even leaving Europe won't stop them banging on and on about Europe.
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Post by jib on Dec 18, 2021 23:35:36 GMT
alecI wrote about post-Brexit Desperados in an earlier post. Brexit has happened. It isn't a disaster and the predictions of cliff edge never happened. Neither is it "cake and eat it" 🍰 Time to move on and Frost has probably realised that the EU ain't budging and there isn't any White Knight moment coming.
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Post by tancred on Dec 18, 2021 23:37:17 GMT
"This may come as a surprise to some but the NHS was designed to treat disease something it does rather well it was also designed to prevent serious disease ,again it has made tremendous strides to that effect particularly in the last 30yrs . Covid must be allowed to take its place in the long list of diseases that have a outside chance of killing you without continual stop start of not only the economy but peoples lives." Yes but the NHS is already operating at capacity and the experts are saying that Omicron will likely take it over the edge - resulting in additional excess early deaths from non-covid causes. An immediate circuit-breaker would spread the load and reduce this risk. Boris has to make a huge decision this weekend - act decisively immediately, however unpopular with his loony right Tory MPs, or do nothing and gamble that the experts are wrong. He won't ruin another Christmas for people - and I fully support him in that. Omicron is less dangerous than other Covid strains and I don't believe there will be excess hospitalisation. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 18, 2021 23:37:33 GMT
hireton - The Guardian is saying Frost was to resign at the end of January, which makes more sense, but nonetheless, the timing and leak is interesting. I suspect that Frost is blustering about his reasons. He, more than most of this sorry bunch, needed to find an excuse to bail out before the plane crashes to earth. It's clear that his approach to Brexit, typical of the over zealous new convert, has failed, and reality is breaking over the decision makers that are left in the government. Brexit is a disaster, and it is uniquely Frost's own personal disaster, so best jump now, so he can proceed to blame everyone left for being too soft. 'It was all going so well until I left....' I had previously thought that Brexit would be a slow burn, with little manifest failure other than the 'slow puncture' style comparative decline that gets little noticed by voters who cannot live in a counterfactual world. But I didn't count on Frost, and his ability to sway Johnson. They have done a great favour to the pro EU cause. The Brexit they delivered was way worse than I expected, and the results are having a deep and immediate impact beyond what I could have envisaged. The government cannot carry on down this path, and the Brexit extremists cannot countenance any other way: there lies betrayal! So I think Brexit becomes more and more toxic for Conservatives as time passes, and as the promise evaporates, the internal divisions and blame grow. Somehow, they need to find their own Kinnock to take back the party from the swivel eyed loons, and then they need to work out how to neuter Farage and his ilk, and it won't be pretty. Cameron called the referendum to stop his party 'banging on and on about Europe', but I now suspect that even leaving Europe won't stop them banging on and on about Europe. “Cameron called the referendum to stop his party 'banging on and on about Europe', but I now suspect that even leaving Europe won't stop them banging on and on about Europe.” - We have to move the country to the Pacific remember? Even physical proximity to those inferiority complex inducing continentals is too much for these whack jobs 🙂 |
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Post by alec on Dec 18, 2021 23:37:44 GMT
And it seems to have started already, with a leak of a series of exchanges of the 'Clean Global Brexit' Whatsapp group of over 100 MPs with a big row between those defending Johnson and those saying there is little point in keeping him. Sam Coates has the details on his twitter feed.
Oh dear oh dear oh dear. What a shambles we have leading us.
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Post by tancred on Dec 18, 2021 23:39:56 GMT
As it is Stalin's 143rd birthday today, it is quite interesting to recall how he balanced between the centre of the party and the centre of the "voters" (until 1936 those who employed people had no voting right). I don't mean as a joke or as a parallel, just as a kind of thought process line (even if it takes off the path). He 'balanced' politics by sending people to the gulags in their millions and by starving to death millions of peasants who disagreed with his views. |
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Post by alec on Dec 18, 2021 23:42:58 GMT
jib - "It isn't a disaster and the predictions of cliff edge never happened." The cliff edge was the no deal version, but instead we opted for the skidding down the slippery slope. You can think what you like about Brexit, but the government accepts it is a disaster. That's why Sunak is planning on the working assumption of a 4% drop in GDP, reduced tax revenues of over £30bn pa as a consequence, and a major loss of trade that can't be made up from new trade deals. In context, that's like having a seriously big recession, but without any recovery. Please - don't argue with me about this. Write to the Prime Minister instead if you think his Chancellor is wrong.
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Post by guymonde on Dec 18, 2021 23:49:35 GMT
I confess I had never heard of William Wragg until this post. A red wall ultra it seems who has never had a proper job and lives with his mum and dad. It smells to me like a lot of rats doing what they do when something is holed below the waterline. I wonder if he was nicknamed 'Toe' at school? |
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Post by mercian on Dec 18, 2021 23:51:41 GMT
Cameron called the referendum to stop his party 'banging on and on about Europe', but I now suspect that even leaving Europe won't stop them banging on and on about Europe. It's you lot (Rejoiners/Remoaners) who keep banging on about it. The disaster that you go on about hasn't affected me or anyone I know in the slightest. Now obviously that's an unrepresentative sample, but it does suggest that this terrible apocalypse that you seem to imagine is just that - imagination. This is not to say that some people haven't suffered, but others will have benefitted as happens with every change. The main subject of current affairs conversation is of course Covid, followed at some distance by the Paterson affair. |
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Post by jib on Dec 18, 2021 23:55:05 GMT
alecI'm not arguing that there won't be a 4% hit. I've discussed this previously. The test for me is standard of living and life satisfaction in the UK in 20-30 years, not maximising corporate gain.
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Post by eor on Dec 18, 2021 23:58:02 GMT
Agreed - tho as I think shevii was arguing, for that to be of any use to Labour it would require there to be a significant number of LibDem voters in seats that Labour are attempting to win from the Conservatives - if Labour has already largely rolled up such people in the last few GEs then the effect would aid them very little? Perhaps I didn't explain myself very well, will give a hypothetical example In a constituency where at the last election Conservatives got 23,000 votes, Labour 20,000 and the Lib-dems 2,000. Some Conservative voters may be disillusioned with Johnson and his Government but cannot bring themselves to vote Labour. But they may decide to vote Lib-dem instead, that will help Labour, although obviously not as much as a straight switch to Labour. Thanks for clarifying neilj yes I'd missed that meaning. It makes sense the way you've put it there. Tangentially it also fits with my instincts about withdrawal of candidates in pursuit of a Progressive Alliance being a very questionable strategy. As well as not producing the direct transfer that advocates like to assume, in the kind of scenario you describe there it could also cause active harm if any Tories who won't vote Labour were then to vote Tory for want of any acceptable alternative (rather than to simply not vote at all). |
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Post by tancred on Dec 19, 2021 0:36:02 GMT
Cameron called the referendum to stop his party 'banging on and on about Europe', but I now suspect that even leaving Europe won't stop them banging on and on about Europe. It's you lot (Rejoiners/Remoaners) who keep banging on about it. The disaster that you go on about hasn't affected me or anyone I know in the slightest. Now obviously that's an unrepresentative sample, but it does suggest that this terrible apocalypse that you seem to imagine is just that - imagination. This is not to say that some people haven't suffered, but others will have benefitted as happens with every change. The main subject of current affairs conversation is of course Covid, followed at some distance by the Paterson affair. Brexit is not an apocalypse, it's just an act of stupidity. And an act of stupidity because it had made us look like fools in the eyes of the world as whole, has lost us the ease of trade and travel with Europe that we had before and also diplomatic influence within Europe. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 19, 2021 0:38:14 GMT
eor
"it could also cause active harm if any Tories who won't vote Labour were then to vote Tory for want of any acceptable alternative (rather than to simply not vote at all)."
That's a similar point to my comment on Tompkin's silly idea of only putting up one Unionist candidate in each Scottish FPTP seat.
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Post by eor on Dec 19, 2021 0:38:21 GMT
Intriguing reading all the different reactions to the Frost story.
I have no evidence that any poster with a clear instinct on this is not entirely correct in what they're suggesting.
So out of curiosity I tried doing the equivalent of averaging out all the different variables, but there are multiple best-fit lines that can be drawn.
Taking what seems generally agreed;
- he's not a typical politician, very unusually for a cabinet minister he's not an MP or former MP at all
- his stated reasons for leaving are unrelated to his ministerial brief
- the story has emerged this evening that he had previously advised the PM that he would be leaving in the near future
So... maybe he agreed to the job because he thought he could make a difference, and is now getting out before things blow up. Or because he is being frustrated from doing what he wants to do in the role. Or because, as an outsider, he genuinely finds it unreasonable to be expected to take collective responsibility for COVID stuff he finds bonkers.
Or... maybe the job was a launchpad to a political career and it's now an appropriate time to position himself by making noise as being Against certain things. Could be he sees himself as a potential figurehead for the resistance to COVID overreach, or for the dissatisfaction with Johnson in general, or something else yet to emerge.
Or... maybe his profile as a cabinet minister has meant he's got a stack of better job offers than he ever had as a lobbyist or diplomat and now is the time to move on, with Johnson getting mired in other things and being unlikely to have any capital left for him to spend on this role.
As for the timing of the leak, it could be that someone (Frost or another) is trying to further wound Johnson at a vulnerable time. It could be that someone (Johnson, Frost or another) figures that between the by-election and COVID this is an excellent time to get a potentially salacious story out of the way with minimal impact.
The one bit I do feel reasonably confident on is that the BBC's apparently slow response is probably due more to having journalistic standards that tend to require a bit more confirmation than "someone on Twitter says the MoS are going with this story" or indeed a straightforward scrape of "Tabloid is saying x". They are always slower than most news sites to react to rumours leaked elsewhere, as often are the Guardian (who were also yet to post anything when I first checked in here to find the discussion well-established).
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 19, 2021 0:44:10 GMT
Mercian
"The disaster that you go on about hasn't affected me or anyone I know in the slightest."
Other than as a contributory factor to supply chain problems, it hasn't affected me, or those that I know, either.
Indeed, as long as my final salary pension gets paid into my bank account, I would be equally unaffected if all benefit payments to the poor and unemployed were ended. That others starved to death shouldn't be any concern of mine - or should it?
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Post by eor on Dec 19, 2021 0:45:36 GMT
eor "it could also cause active harm if any Tories who won't vote Labour were then to vote Tory for want of any acceptable alternative (rather than to simply not vote at all)." That's a similar point to my comment on Tompkin's silly idea of only putting up one Unionist candidate in each Scottish FPTP seat. Yes, and for the same reason - firstly I think voters are overwhelmingly smart enough to work out how they should vote to get the results they desire. And secondly the relative few who aren't already voting in what others perceive the optimal way for their own interests are very unlikely to take well to being told they need to have their choices directed or limited by people who know better them. And yet after every election, the people who lost look at spreadsheets and try to find out how the voters messed it up... |
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Post by mercian on Dec 19, 2021 1:00:38 GMT
Mercian "The disaster that you go on about hasn't affected me or anyone I know in the slightest." Other than as a contributory factor to supply chain problems, it hasn't affected me, or those that I know, either. Indeed, as long as my final salary pension gets paid into my bank account, I would be equally unaffected if all benefit payments to the poor and unemployed were ended. That others starved to death shouldn't be any concern of mine - or should it? No-one is starving to death or having benefits reduced because of Brexit. My acquaintances include people of all ages including many of working age and none have reported any problems because of Brexit, or indeed even mentioned it for many months. One young (30s) chap I know has just landed a very well-paid job by normal standards (weighbridge operator on over £30k) which is a big step up from shop assistant in a fishing-tackle shop. Nothing to do with Brexit of course, but an anecdotal counterbalance to the views of alec and others who seem to think we're one step from the Four Horsemen. |
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Post by eor on Dec 19, 2021 1:15:22 GMT
On the COVID cases -in the UK, testing has suddenly spiked by around 20-25% in the early part of this week. I say "suddenly" not because it's a particular surprise, given both the PM's broadcast last Sunday and the timing factors facing many people ahead of Christmas plans, but because it has jumped almost straight away from one fairly steady daily level to another.
Meanwhile cases have spiked rather harder, by 40-50% or more depending how you read the data. For the one to be causing the other, it would need the positivity in the extra testing people to be more than three times that in the people who were getting tested previously. Ok, there could well be people who had some symptoms (or a reasonable risk profile) that weren't bothered to get tested before and are doing so this week because they don't want to kill Grandma over Christmas. But then there'll also be a lot of people who are no more likely than anyone else to test positive who are getting tested now because of caution or specific events it's required for.
Overall, I'm not sure we can say yet whether the higher case numbers are evidence of a dramatic climb in actual cases or primarily fuelled by the spike in testing. That said we should have very little time to wait on this - if cases are rising hard because of Omicron then the case numbers will not hold steady at their current level.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 19, 2021 1:22:16 GMT
Mercian
I think you miss the point of my comment. That the continued comfort of ourselves and those we know is not a justification for policies that negatively affect others - unless one is extraordinarily selfish, of course.
While the Benthamite philosophy of "the greatest good for the greatest number" does have merit, it lacks the concomitant moral principle that the significant extent of harm inflicted on a minority does not justify the self-satisfied maintenance of the status quo for some.
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Post by mercian on Dec 19, 2021 1:22:19 GMT
Case numbers are irrelevant. What matters is deaths, and to a lesser extent hospitalisations. Though caution is sensible, as far as I know these aren't rising much (yet).
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