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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 18, 2021 20:33:22 GMT
I have sought refuge from the Strictly Come Dancing Final on BBC and taken to my computer upstairs, still smarting from a pointless journey to Villa Park this afternoon. I got to within about 4 miles of the ground when a mate rang to inform me that the game had been called off. Ironically, I was driving around the big roundabout on the Coventry Road at the time, just a few hundred yards from St Andrews, the home of Birmingham City FC. The blue and white gods were laughing down at me. I turned back home, now a 35 mile journey to the Cotswolds and went past the infamous McDonalds drive-thru, the scene of a bust up between veteran Villa and Blues hooligan firms in 2002. A fight made legend in the hooligan literature that became quite urban chic at the time. The Zulus met Villa Hardcore. One for the purists, I think. I drove quickly away, considering I had a Villa badge displayed in my rear car window! I only take this route to Villa Park now to avoid the recently imposed Emission Zone in Birmingham City centre. £8 for an old diesel banger like mine with a pre 2014 engine. £60 fine if you don't cough up. (Incidentally, it's worked very well, cutting the toxic NO2 emissions in the middle of Birmingham drastically. Bravo to Birmingham City Council - Labour controlled - and the Tory City Mayor, Andy Street. A good combination and Street is a class act, as is the Labour Leader of the Council. They're doing good work in tandem.)
Anyway, I digress. I'm stuck on my PC with idle time on my hands, so a bit of musing. I muse tonight on the notion of political glory-hunters being present amongst the electorate; voters who are promiscuous and easily swayed. Let me explain. I've always been intrigued by how newly elected governments get an instant bounce in the polls after the election before actually doing anything. Sometimes this bounce is sizeable (3-5%) and must be partially explained by voters jumping on the open-topped winning bus, just for the victory parade. I remember Anthony describing how some voters even "misremember" how they voted in the election, claiming that they voted for the winning party when, in fact, they didn't. There is something very human about all this; a desire to be associated with success and a wish to be seen as a wise decision-maker. The need to always back winners as a mark of self-respect.
I wonder if (and I think it must, actually) work in reverse? A flight from failure and a wish to abandon an obviously ailing and sinking ship. Is this another danger for the Tories now? They've been a winning party in the eyes of voters for a long time now, and I'm sure they've attracted many promiscuous voters along the way; voters who travel very ideology-lite and who may have been repelled by Labour by dint of the party's association with defeat and failure. If they lose they must be bad and if they win they must be good. How significant is this voting determinant?
If it is, then these shattering by election defeats for the Tories, starting to pile up now, may impose on the party a whiff of atrophy and failure that sends voters running in search of winners elsewhere. I suppose you could argue that political glory hunting is one of the generators of the elusive "Big Mo".
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Post by hireton on Dec 18, 2021 20:43:36 GMT
And James E Sky reporting that the areas of disagreement are high taxes, net zero and covid restrictions. In other words, this is the new fundamental split in the Tory party which will run and run. Sounds like Frost was getting above himself, given the things that it's said he resigned over have nothing to do with his ministerial responsibilities. Where did he come from anyway if he's not long been made a Lord and hasn't been an MP. Was he dragged off Putney High Street or something? He was a middle ranking diplomat and then Chief Executive of the Scotch Whisky Association ( where he strongly espoused the benefits of EU membership). As a former Permanent Secretary to the Treasury said Frost proved to be an effective Chief Executive at the SWA. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 18, 2021 20:47:03 GMT
Yes but the NHS is already operating at capacity and the experts are saying that Omicron will likely take it over the edge - resulting in additional excess early deaths from non-covid causes. An immediate circuit-breaker would spread the load and reduce this risk. Boris has to make a huge decision this weekend - act decisively immediately, however unpopular with his loony right Tory MPs, or do nothing and gamble that the experts are wrong. The nhs is designed to work with all beds always full. It manages this by making people wait for treatment and prioritising the most urgent. As waiting lists rise demand takes care of itself because people die untreated. That's how it has always worked and that's how it's expected to work The amount of money spent on lockdowns could instead have been spent over many years on expanding services and therefore reducing waiting times, and almost certainly saving many more lives. We could have built brand new proper hospitals in the time this has gone on. We chose not to. We made the choice not to increase the general nhs budget because it was unaffordable. Yet here we are spending money which in ordinary circumstances we would refuse to spend even though it would do more good than what we are doing now. It's utter insanity. No kind of lockdown will do much to slow the rise of covid now.It never has and it certainly won't this time round if this really does spread faster. It's purely throwing away money. What we need to do is what we needed to do in 2020, which is just get on with people catching it so we can go back to normal. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 18, 2021 20:48:44 GMT
I have sought refuge from the Strictly Come Dancing Final on BBC and taken to my computer upstairs, still smarting from a pointless journey to Villa Park this afternoon. I got to within about 4 miles of the ground when a mate rang to inform me that the game had been called off. Ironically, I was driving around the big roundabout on the Coventry Road at the time, just a few hundred yards from St Andrews, the home of Birmingham City FC. The blue and white gods were laughing down at me. I turned back home, now a 35 mile journey to the Cotswolds and went past the infamous McDonalds drive-thru, the scene of a bust up between veteran Villa and Blues hooligan firms in 2002. A fight made legend in the hooligan literature that became quite urban chic at the time. The Zulus met Villa Hardcore. One for the purists, I think. I drove quickly away, considering I had a Villa badge displayed in my rear car window! I only take this route to Villa Park now to avoid the recently imposed Emission Zone in Birmingham City centre. £8 for an old diesel banger like mine with a pre 2014 engine. £60 fine if you don't cough up. (Incidentally, it's worked very well, cutting the toxic NO2 emissions in the middle of Birmingham drastically. Bravo to Birmingham City Council - Labour controlled - and the Tory City Mayor, Andy Street. A good combination and Street is a class act, as is the Labour Leader of the Council. They're doing good work in tandem.) Anyway, I digress. I'm stuck on my PC with idle time on my hands, so a bit of musing. I muse tonight on the notion of political glory-hunters being present amongst the electorate; voters who are promiscuous and easily swayed. Let me explain. I've always been intrigued by how newly elected governments get an instant bounce in the polls after the election before actually doing anything. Sometimes this bounce is sizeable (3-5%) and must be partially explained by voters jumping on the open-topped winning bus, just for the victory parade. I remember Anthony describing how some voters even "misremember" how they voted in the election, claiming that they voted for the winning party when, in fact, they didn't. There is something very human about all this; a desire to be associated with success and a wish to be seen as a wise decision-maker. The need to always back winners as a mark of self-respect. I wonder if (and I think it must, actually) work in reverse? A flight from failure and a wish to abandon an obviously ailing and sinking ship. Is this another danger for the Tories now? They've been a winning party in the eyes of voters for a long time now, and I'm sure they've attracted many promiscuous voters along the way; voters who travel very ideology-lite and who may have been repelled by Labour by dint of the party's association with defeat and failure. If they lose they must be bad and if they win they must be good. How significant is this voting determinant? If it is, then these shattering by election defeats for the Tories, starting to pile up now, may impose on the party a whiff of atrophy and failure that sends voters running in search of winners elsewhere. I suppose you could argue that political glory hunting is one of the generators of the elusive "Big Mo". Sorry to hear of your wasted journey CB. Cotswolds to Villa Park isn't too bad. I've got Keele to Shepherd's Bush, but at least our games were telegraphed well in advance. My big worry is living surrounded by Stoke supporters but I've survived here for nearly a dozen years, so I should be OK. You raise a deep philosophical matter, it is a deeply ingrained human characteristic to follow success and shun failure. I mean I was first attracted to QPR by their 1967 League Cup Final heroics, so attracted by success, but I've followed them ever since, which some would argue doesn't prove the opposite end of the argument. |
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Post by hireton on Dec 18, 2021 20:48:57 GMT
There is something interesting hidden in the Frost story.
It seems his resignation was agreed last week to take effect on 1 January.
So why has the news been leaked as an exclusive to the MoS now and by whom?
It can only destabilise Johnson's premiership further at the end of a terrible week.
Cui bono?
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Post by turk on Dec 18, 2021 20:52:26 GMT
Alec
I never said you did say a complete lockdown try reading what people post. Ho Hum.
Oldnat.
The main contributor to fat people in the US is cheap food and huge portions of food cooked in fat.
Johntel.
The U.K. has had several lockdowns ,but here we are again . Lockdowns could be justified when you have no protection against a pandemic. But when you do have vaccines that work all you do is delay the course of the infection as soon as the circuit breaker ends the cycle starts all over again as people begin to circulate. I’m afraid Covid in it’s to be many forms is with us to stay for the foreseeable future best get on and learn to live with it.
If I were to impose a draconian move it would be to make vaccination compulsory, because here in the US it’s the Unvaccinated who are filling up the hospitals. I suspect the same is true in the U.K.
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Post by hireton on Dec 18, 2021 20:56:37 GMT
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 18, 2021 20:58:27 GMT
There is something interesting hidden in the Frost story. It seems his resignation was agreed last week to take effect on 1 January. So why has the news been leaked as an exclusive to the MoS now and by whom? It can only destabilise Johnson's premiership further at the end of a terrible week. Cui bono? Another oddity is why would Frost hang on to the end of the year? Would he miss out on his Christmas bonus if he went earlier? I'm getting the feeling from what I've read that Frost has sold the story to the Mail. Maybe there's some juicy stuff for him to reveal exclusively in the Mail. Or maybe it's a damp squib. |
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Post by Old Southendian on Dec 18, 2021 20:59:45 GMT
BBC now finally reporting the Frost resignation story, some 85 mins after it first broke. I suspect they were all loyally watching Strictly. Someone has to. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 18, 2021 21:08:24 GMT
Maybe Johnson has had enough of the Tory ROC's steering his government and with his usual lack of commitment to any ideology, apart from staying in power, he might be about to change tack and give the other side a chance to push matters centrewards. Can the man, who more than anybody, garnered the votes for Brexit actually acknowledge it was a mistake and we need to have a closer relationship with the EU or does it need a new leader to do that?
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 18, 2021 21:19:36 GMT
BBC now finally reporting the Frost resignation story, some 85 mins after it first broke. I suspect they were all loyally watching Strictly. Someone has to. I thought you'd be down the Thorpe Bay Palais |
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Post by hireton on Dec 18, 2021 21:20:43 GMT
barbaraI didn't comment on your taxonomy of leavers current views earlier on but I think it is important to recognise that Brexit was not an end relating to sovereignty and trade in itself but a means to an end. It was and is at heart a right wing political project which its fundamental advocates think has only just begun. To quote one speaking a couple of weeks ago: "If, after Brexit, all we do is import the European social model, we will not succeed. We haven't successfully rolled back the frontiers of the EU with Brexit, only to import the European model after all this time."
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 18, 2021 21:28:39 GMT
barbara I didn't comment on your taxonomy of leavers current views earlier on but I think it is important to recognise that Brexit was not an end relating to sovereignty and trade in itself but a means to an end. It was and is at heart a right wing political project which its fundamental advocates think has only just begun. To quote one speaking a couple of weeks ago: "If, after Brexit, all we do is import the European social model, we will not succeed. We haven't successfully rolled back the frontiers of the EU with Brexit, only to import the European model after all this time." So are we importing the Afghan model, the North Korean model or the Venezuelan I wonder? |
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Post by chrisaberavon on Dec 18, 2021 21:28:59 GMT
CB11.
Lovely post.
Thank you.
I found that analysis of voters flocking to the winner; deserting the fading forces very interesting.
Steve G doing well at your famous old club; I used to enjoy the chants when watching Sports Night with Coleman back in the day.
Just seen a poll out on twitter, with projected seats and Lab short of OM by 14 seats.
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Post by mercian on Dec 18, 2021 21:33:24 GMT
"If, after Brexit, all we do is import the European social model, we will not succeed. We haven't successfully rolled back the frontiers of the EU with Brexit, only to import the European model after all this time." So are we importing the Afghan model, the North Korean model or the Venezuelan I wonder? Only if Corbyn comes back 🙂 |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 18, 2021 21:35:48 GMT
crossbat11 I have sought refuge from the Strictly Come Dancing Final on BBCOh your loss, missed a cracking final! Wont spoil it for you by saying who won.  On the topic of people voting for parties solely on the basis that they think are going to be the winners, when I was doing my A-level politics my teacher mentioned this. I always thought it a bit wired of her to cite this as basis of someone's voting behaviour until a few years later a friend said to me that that was exactly what they do!
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Post by catmanjeff on Dec 18, 2021 21:52:19 GMT
I have sought refuge from the Strictly Come Dancing Final on BBC and taken to my computer upstairs, still smarting from a pointless journey to Villa Park this afternoon. I got to within about 4 miles of the ground when a mate rang to inform me that the game had been called off. Ironically, I was driving around the big roundabout on the Coventry Road at the time, just a few hundred yards from St Andrews, the home of Birmingham City FC. The blue and white gods were laughing down at me. I turned back home, now a 35 mile journey to the Cotswolds and went past the infamous McDonalds drive-thru, the scene of a bust up between veteran Villa and Blues hooligan firms in 2002. A fight made legend in the hooligan literature that became quite urban chic at the time. The Zulus met Villa Hardcore. One for the purists, I think. I drove quickly away, considering I had a Villa badge displayed in my rear car window! I only take this route to Villa Park now to avoid the recently imposed Emission Zone in Birmingham City centre. £8 for an old diesel banger like mine with a pre 2014 engine. £60 fine if you don't cough up. (Incidentally, it's worked very well, cutting the toxic NO2 emissions in the middle of Birmingham drastically. Bravo to Birmingham City Council - Labour controlled - and the Tory City Mayor, Andy Street. A good combination and Street is a class act, as is the Labour Leader of the Council. They're doing good work in tandem.) Anyway, I digress. I'm stuck on my PC with idle time on my hands, so a bit of musing. I muse tonight on the notion of political glory-hunters being present amongst the electorate; voters who are promiscuous and easily swayed. Let me explain. I've always been intrigued by how newly elected governments get an instant bounce in the polls after the election before actually doing anything. Sometimes this bounce is sizeable (3-5%) and must be partially explained by voters jumping on the open-topped winning bus, just for the victory parade. I remember Anthony describing how some voters even "misremember" how they voted in the election, claiming that they voted for the winning party when, in fact, they didn't. There is something very human about all this; a desire to be associated with success and a wish to be seen as a wise decision-maker. The need to always back winners as a mark of self-respect. I wonder if (and I think it must, actually) work in reverse? A flight from failure and a wish to abandon an obviously ailing and sinking ship. Is this another danger for the Tories now? They've been a winning party in the eyes of voters for a long time now, and I'm sure they've attracted many promiscuous voters along the way; voters who travel very ideology-lite and who may have been repelled by Labour by dint of the party's association with defeat and failure. If they lose they must be bad and if they win they must be good. How significant is this voting determinant? If it is, then these shattering by election defeats for the Tories, starting to pile up now, may impose on the party a whiff of atrophy and failure that sends voters running in search of winners elsewhere. I suppose you could argue that political glory hunting is one of the generators of the elusive "Big Mo".
Sadly my own team, Leeds Utd, did not cancel today.
Nice have 11 senior players out with injuries. The cleaner might well get a game....
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Post by statgeek on Dec 18, 2021 21:55:56 GMT
Seen elsewhere: "Frosty the Go-man" |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Dec 18, 2021 21:59:38 GMT
Turk
"The main contributor to fat people in the US is cheap food"
And subsidised high fructose corn syrup allows that food to be simultaneously cheap, fattening and addictive. If US governments since 1970 had chosen to subsidise healthy foods instead of the corn interest, the balance between healthy and unhealthy foods could have been altered. The sort of food that is cheap isn't accidental - it's a consequence of government decisions taken after considerable lobbying and funding of both the political parties.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 18, 2021 22:00:25 GMT
Personally I am pondering the extent to which on the past couple of weeks if we have genuinely seen a firm shift in the electorate. The following article in the guardian was interesting: www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/18/i-couldnt-vote-conservative-again-the-view-from-yeovil-won-by-the-tories-in-2015Perhaps the events of the past couple of weeks have acted as a catalyst to the collapses of the coalition of support the Tories manged to bring together in 2019. I've been reading a lot of commentary along the lines that Johnson needs to find another big topic to take over from Brexit, with levelling up seen as the likely contender. However, I really don't think such an agenda will bear the same electoral fruit as Brexit did for Johnson. First, levelling up is a nebulous concept difficult to both quantify and deliver. Past attempts to rejuvenate areas suffering from post-industrial decline have had mixed results and there is no silver bullet to 'get levelling up done'. Second, it does nothing for the voters in seats such as the one in the guardian article. Alienating and taking for granted voters in one part of the country whilst not been seen to deliver on the key element of their policy platform would be a recipe for disaster. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 18, 2021 22:01:38 GMT
SDA
"Another oddity is why would Frost hang on to the end of the year?
Would he miss out on his Christmas bonus if he went earlier?"
He'd also miss the office Xmas party!
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Post by moby on Dec 18, 2021 22:08:24 GMT
So Frost resigns ostensibly for reasons that have nothing to do with his brief. Thats just nonsense, he basically knows brexit is a dead end failure and he's never going to best the EU, so he exits the stage. Who is left to take up the cause?
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Post by mercian on Dec 18, 2021 22:18:22 GMT
Farage!
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Dec 18, 2021 22:19:15 GMT
If I have a regular reader, they may know that I like words.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 18, 2021 22:20:45 GMT
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jib
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Post by jib on Dec 18, 2021 22:21:09 GMT
Not quite sure what Frost ever achieved beyond a sausage war with the EU.
Hopefully will mean a more grown up relationship with the Federal EU now.
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Post by jimjam on Dec 18, 2021 22:23:05 GMT
Anent Lord Frost resignation.
I am biased but would the performance of his shadow and the shadow Northern Ireland Secretary, until Starmer's reshuffle; be a factor?
Jenny Chapman and Louise Haigh (with Starmer's backing) have been ahead of the Government on the Ni protocol for many months and the model for effective constructive scrutiny and opposition.
Shame Prof Howard did not join the new platform as his take would have been interesting.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 18, 2021 22:27:03 GMT
Not quite sure what Frost ever achieved beyond a sausage war with the EU. Hopefully will mean a more grown up relationship with the Federal EU now. Are there different types of EU now then JIB? I'd vote for any type of EU rather than the mob we have governing us now. If they're what was meant by taking back control, I've never felt so out of control in three score years and ten. |
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Post by hireton on Dec 18, 2021 22:38:28 GMT
A Tory psychodrama in two acts:
followed by:
And of course a Tory MP chose to leak it to Sy
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jib
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Post by jib on Dec 18, 2021 22:39:36 GMT
steamdrivenandyWell the EU is an amalgamation of nation states, but we negotiate with their Federalised structure in Brussels. I hope that helps.
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