Danny
Member
Posts: 10,573
|
Post by Danny on Dec 11, 2021 20:22:42 GMT
Another day when the south Africa case rates and mortality are barely changed from last week. The seven day increase drops from 185% yesterday to 120% and falling . total cases ther is very low. If that's it, then covid is all over and it's a bunch of loonies frightened of the dark trying to get the uk to hide from the boogeyman. It looks increasingly like the solution to covid was always to get the safe to catch it. Which is what SA has done. That may still turn out better than mass vaccination as the uk has insisted upon. But then the UK government still needs to prove to the nation there was any point in two years of lockdown to wait for a vaccine which doesn't stop covid. |
|
bantams
Member
Known as Bantams on UKPR
Posts: 196 
|
Post by bantams on Dec 11, 2021 20:23:24 GMT
Agree, Labour are only the inevitable internal disagreement away from popping their red balloon. The tories have a big issue, namely Boris, to deal with but still lots of time to bed in a new leader. Remember we're 3 years away from a GE.
I worked for the LD's for a long time, they are still a busted flush as far as I'm concerned. The odd byelection win will come here or there, the next one might be North Shropshire. If it is, expect severe gnashing of teeth at CCHQ & more letters addressed to the 1922 committee.
Nice to see old Batty back, I have to say it's great decision to bring Stevie in at Villa. Is it a year since you left us?
I listened to the cricket for 15 minutes last night. As soon as Malan was out I could see the rest of the dominoes falling over quickly but maybe not THAT quickly.
As the law currently stands the next GE is due on May 2nd 2024 - quite a bit less than 3 years - indeed less than 2 years and 5 months! Yes, as it currently stands, you're spot on. It won't stay that way though, the 2011 act is set to be repealed shortly. |
|
|
|
Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 11, 2021 20:33:15 GMT
Not the 'nation', just a few contrarians. |
|
|
|
Post by Mark on Dec 11, 2021 20:33:45 GMT
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 41% (+3)
CON: 32% (-4)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)
via @opiniumresearch Chgs. w/ 25 Nov
Largest Lab lead with pollster since 2014.
|
|
|
|
Post by jib on Dec 11, 2021 20:44:13 GMT
Terrible figures for the Tories.
Losing the by-election will be a disaster for Johnson. If Paterson had taken his caning like a good lad, this would all have been avoided.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,573
|
Post by Danny on Dec 11, 2021 20:50:08 GMT
crossbatt11,
there was a very dramatic rise in con support when they ditched may and went with johnson.
His problem now is that nothing is going right. Brexit is starting to look alarming. Lockdown failed to suppress covid. test and trace was a fiasco and the vaccine doesn't work. Obviously doesn't work or why would be hiding under our beds again?
Brexit is running out of road. If the SA strain fades away harmlessly more and more people are going to ask how come they got rid of covid with only a fraction vaccinated. How come Sweden did better with far fewer restrictions. How come downing street never believed in the restrictions anyway.
His defences are voters told him to do brexit and sage told him to do lockdown. And the cabinet made the decisions. Not his fault, he's only the PM.
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Dec 11, 2021 20:52:17 GMT
The Maundy Gregory case was, I believe, the straw that broke the back of Lloyd George's government and the Liberals never again held power alone. Could the Paterson case do the same for the Tories?
Incidentally I found this amusing in Wikipedia re Lloyd George -
"Other complaints were that the Cabinet contained too many Scots, too few men from Oxbridge and the great public schools, too many businessmen, and too few gentlemen".
A bit of a contrast to today!
|
|
|
|
Post by js on Dec 11, 2021 20:58:59 GMT
What is the REFUK usp by the way? Brexit again?
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,573
|
Post by Danny on Dec 11, 2021 20:59:42 GMT
Terrible figures for the Tories. Losing the by-election will be a disaster for Johnson. If Paterson had taken his caning like a good lad, this would all have been avoided. surely events would have played out much the same? There would still have been a by election. The unimpressive whipping of MPs in opposite directions might have been avoided but that wasn't just about Patterson but the whole question of outside interests. The Patterson saga itself had been running for quite some time. |
|
|
|
Post by hireton on Dec 11, 2021 21:03:13 GMT
Hopefully, this will post more of the Opinium results: Johnson's personal ratings tanking, Starmer takes a clear lead on best for PM and majority consider Johnson should resign( not entirely surprising as a majority did not vote for him:
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Dec 11, 2021 21:04:55 GMT
What is the REFUK usp by the way? Brexit again? Low tax, low regulation. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,573
|
Post by Danny on Dec 11, 2021 21:10:26 GMT
The Maundy Gregory case was, I believe, the straw that broke the back of Lloyd George's government and the Liberals never again held power alone. Could the Paterson case do the same for the Tories? Deep. This could only lead to the end of the conservative party in government if another was able to take its place in our bilateral monopoly of power. Con managed to see off lib when they began to get close before. I think losing the election could be overlooked without consequence but if it happens it would be only a symptom of other failings. |
|
|
|
Post by t7g4 on Dec 11, 2021 21:17:00 GMT
The Conservatives are in real trouble. Sunak will be the next leader and he will probably be distancing himself from Johnson.
Boris will step down around March or April next year but the
Locals could be heavily damaging in May.
|
|
|
|
Post by t7g4 on Dec 11, 2021 21:18:30 GMT
The Shropshire by election is steady lost. There is no way a governing party on 32% of support will win that.
How far down can the Conservatives go. Will they can go back to the early 20s like 2019. I think this is possible.
|
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Dec 11, 2021 21:19:14 GMT
It would be interesting to see a poll which tested the proposition that Johnson's fate should mirror that of his equivalent in the Dutch Republic in 1672 , Johan de Witt, when an angry mob seized and killed him and his brother and (according to some reports) ate their livers.
Johnson's should be nicely fattened by now.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 21:22:35 GMT
It would be interesting to see a poll which tested the proposition that Johnson's fate should mirror that of his equivalent in the Dutch Republic in 1672 , Johan de Witt, when an angry mob seized and killed him and his brother and (according to some reports) ate their livers. Johnson's should be nicely fattened by now. Bit violent, even for a Jock... |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Dec 11, 2021 21:24:18 GMT
The Conservatives are in real trouble. Sunak will be the next leader and he will probably be distancing himself from Johnson. Boris will step down around March or April next year but the Locals could be heavily damaging in May. Whether we like it or not, someone of southern Asian heritage might not go down too well in the Red Wall seats in the Midlands and North (of England, for Oldnat's benefit). It's one thing to have members of the cabinet of that persuasion but PM might be a step too far for some. Remember that a lot of these areas have suffered the grooming gangs who were predominately Asian folks, so that alone has led to some suspicion. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 21:27:43 GMT
Ah!!!!!! You can like your own posts.
(Only just read it and did it spontaneously.)
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 21:29:31 GMT
The Conservatives are in real trouble. Sunak will be the next leader and he will probably be distancing himself from Johnson. Boris will step down around March or April next year but the Locals could be heavily damaging in May. Whether we like it or not, someone of southern Asian heritage might not go down too well in the Red Wall seats in the Midlands and North (of England, for Oldnat's benefit). It's one thing to have members of the cabinet of that persuasion but PM might be a step too far for some. Remember that a lot of these areas have suffered the grooming gangs who were predominately Asian folks, so that alone has led to some suspicion. Not sure why you are specifying “Northern”. Seems a bit racist to Northerners to me. I’m from the Sahf but have lived here for over fifty years and they seem almost like normal people to me. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Dec 11, 2021 21:35:34 GMT
It was because it seems to be the 'Red Wall' seats that people are most concerned about, and that were apparently decisive in 2019. I'm sure there are plenty in other parts of the UK who might have similar reservations.
|
|
|
|
Post by js on Dec 11, 2021 21:38:21 GMT
What is the REFUK usp by the way? Brexit again? Low tax, low regulation. I see. I thought that was the Conservative party’s usp. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 21:40:34 GMT
It was because it seems to be the 'Red Wall' seats that people are most concerned about, and that were apparently decisive in 2019. I'm sure there are plenty in other parts of the UK who might have similar reservations. That’s more even-handed. I support equality of everything - including prejudice. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Dec 11, 2021 21:42:04 GMT
js Maybe, but they're not doing it. Tories have frozen tax allowance for next few years, RefUK want to raise it to £20000 for instance. Whether this and other policies would actually work is another matter, but it is a threat to the Tories. Some policies seem a bit lefty to me, like nationalising energy companies. reformparty.uk/reformisessential/ |
|
|
|
Post by turk on Dec 11, 2021 21:50:26 GMT
Now all Labour has to do is stay in the lead for the next 2yrs and be far enough ahead on the day to form a government , best of luck with that one.
As to Johnson as Conservative I would be glad if he did depart. Either Sunak,Truss,Javid,Sarma ,Gove,Zaharia,or as a outsider Penny Mordaunt would give Starmer a run for his money.
Plenty of choices for the Tories to get behind and plenty of time to make there mark. Personally I doubt If Johnson will stand down on his own he will need the party to remove him I shouldn’t think there’s the support for that yet.
|
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Dec 11, 2021 21:50:49 GMT
Mercian
"North (of England, for Oldnat's benefit)"
Is there anywhere north (or south or east or west, for that matter) of England?
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Dec 11, 2021 21:53:10 GMT
ON
Well to be honest there's not much worth mentioning outside Mercia 🙂
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 21:57:40 GMT
Now all Labour has to do is stay in the lead for the next 2yrs and be far enough ahead on the day to form a government , best of luck with that one. As to Johnson as Conservative I would be glad if he did depart. Either Sunak,Truss,Javid,Sarma ,Gove,Zaharia,or as a outsider Penny Mordaunt would give Starmer a run for his money. Plenty of choices for the Tories to get behind and plenty of time to make there mark. Personally I doubt If Johnson will stand down on his own he will need the party to remove him I shouldn’t think there’s the support for that yet. Ah.... some thought provoking political commentary at last. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 21:59:47 GMT
Mark, ta for rescuing the old site.
You should have named this one ukprmark2 though.
|
|
|
|
Post by js on Dec 11, 2021 22:06:01 GMT
js Maybe, but they're not doing it. Tories have frozen tax allowance for next few years, RefUK want to raise it to £20000 for instance. Whether this and other policies would actually work is another matter, but it is a threat to the Tories. Some policies seem a bit lefty to me, like nationalising energy companies. reformparty.uk/reformisessential/ Depends on the definition of “working” I would guess. Certainly raising the tax allowance to 20K would “work” for me as I would probably pay less tax. Whether that would be be beneficial for the country as a whole is less clear. What would be an absolute whopper for me would be a reduction on the taper above 100k for the personal allowance but I don’t think that’s going to be taken up as a major policy anytime soon. |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Dec 11, 2021 22:10:22 GMT
FWIW (not much, on the basis of 150 weighted responses!) this Opinium Scots crossbreak shows little impact on VI from the shenanigans in London last Xmas -
SNP 48% : SCon 26% : SLab 17% : SGP 2% : SLD 2% : Others 6%
The current Opinium 7 poll average (N=804 : 1/9 to 10/12)
SNP 51% : SCon 27% : SLab 14% : SGP 2% : SLD 2% : Others 4%
Perhaps because many voters in Scotland don't primarily vote in order to get a particular government in Westminster, but because they do/don't want to be governed from Westminster?
As one of Sir Walter Scott's characters observed -
"I dinna ken muckle about the law, answered Mrs Bowden; but I ken when we had a King, and a chancellor, and parliament men o' our ain, we could aye peeble them wi' stanes when they werena guid bairns - But naebody's nails can reach the length o' Lunnan"
|
|
