8-Dec-2021 : LAB: 40 / CON: 34 / LDEM: 10 / GRN: 4

[hireton]

This is awkward:

[mercian]

js
Yes, I was thinking of 'work' in the sense of bring good for the country, but here's one policy that might interest you. By the way I'm not a member of the party, just interested.

"Lift higher rate tax threshold to £70,000 from £50,000 today; flat 40% tax rate above £70,000"

[Deleted]

Dec 11, 2021 21:04:55 GMT mercian said:

Dec 11, 2021 20:58:59 GMT js said:

What is the REFUK usp by the way? Brexit again?

Low tax, low regulation.

Anti lockdown, anti vaccine passports, etc [1] maybe their most salient view at the moment but they also lean anti-immigration. Opinium don't list RUK but if we assume the CON'19 x-break for 'others' is mostly RUK (with a bit of UKIP) then similar picture to other polling companies with 8% of CON'19 moving to 'other'/further RoC parties.

[1] reformparty.uk

[bantams]

Dec 11, 2021 21:50:49 GMT oldnat said:

Mercian

"North (of England, for Oldnat's benefit)"

Is there anywhere north (or south or east or west, for that matter) of England?

In Yorkshire we consider ourselves to be in the North of England whereas in Geordieland & Mackamland they consider themselves to be in the North East of England. Make of that what you will!

[js]

Dec 11, 2021 22:12:33 GMT mercian said:

js
Yes, I was thinking of 'work' in the sense of bring good for the country, but here's one policy that might interest you. By the way I'm not a member of the party, just interested.

"Lift higher rate tax threshold to £70,000 from £50,000 today; flat 40% tax rate above £70,000"

Yes I must confess that would be very beneficial indeed, at the same time as outing myself as a shameless champagne socialist who would happily pay more taxes for the benefit of society at large.

Still, that sort of dosh is not to be scoffed at. I might take up reading the express to see if the mindset bleeds in as if by osmosis.

[steamdrivenandy]

Dec 11, 2021 21:42:04 GMT mercian said:

 Some policies seem a bit lefty to me, like nationalising energy companies.

I think you'll find Mr Tice's energy supplier went bust. So it's a fit of pique.

[steamdrivenandy]

Dec 11, 2021 22:23:39 GMT js said:

Dec 11, 2021 22:12:33 GMT mercian said:

js
Yes, I was thinking of 'work' in the sense of bring good for the country, but here's one policy that might interest you. By the way I'm not a member of the party, just interested.

"Lift higher rate tax threshold to £70,000 from £50,000 today; flat 40% tax rate above £70,000"

Yes I must confess that would be very beneficial indeed, at the same time as outing myself as a shameless champagne socialist who would happily pay more taxes for the benefit of society at large.

Still, that sort of dosh is not to be scoffed at. I might take up reading the express to see if the mindset bleeds in as if by osmosis.

You'd have to reduce your 'reading age' to do that and I'm not sure that's possible.

[oldnat]

[eor]

Dec 11, 2021 5:34:24 GMT thexterminatingdalek said:

Yvette Cooper is a long way from where I'd like to see the only party with any chance of defeating the Tories where I live, but she's sharp as a knife and the only one at the moment I can imagine performing well not only against Johnson, but also wherever succeeds him. Unfortunately, she seems to have no hunger for the role.

I suspect the problem is more that after only getting 17% in 2015 she feels the party has no hunger for her.

[Deleted]

CON'19 x-break from Opinium polling (column 'BE' in V003 sheet) shows similar issue to other polling companies

CON: 57%
DK: 22%
Others (mostly RUK?): 8%
LAB: 8% (with only 2% coming back t'other way)
LDEM: 2% (but hardly any coming back t'other way once weighted by GE'19 result)

By contrast LAB'19 x-break

LAB: 79% (much higher loyalty than CON)
DK: 9% (much lower than CON)
Green: 6% (ie now loosing less to Greens than CON are loosing to RUK)
LDEM: 2% (but getting 21% of LDEM back so net gain from LDEM)

Link with full write-up and click thru to the tabs.
www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-10th-december-2021/

The Collective are throwing in 'Touching the Void' and when to 'cut the rope' for thought. CON folks might be quicker than LAB folks to cut the rope on a wounded leader rather than risk the political death of their party trying to save the leader but a second point is you're forever the villain if by some miracle the leader doesn't die (politically speaking) - so would you (as a CON MP) cut the rope now or wait a bit longer? Might be more poignant than 'the assassin never wears the crown' but the knives are likely being sharpened as CON stare into the abyss and facing a political storm that shows no sign of relenting. With the rules having been changed then there isn't really a stalking horse issue anymore but I will note that most of CRG (anti-lockdown types) are going to 'protest vote' in earnest next week and if Boris tries to push for Plan C then that MIGHT be the final straw? (I hope not as that wouldn't IMO be a good way to 'push' Boris out but if Boris was to jump (cut his own rope) then.. well, that would solve the issue!)

english.elpais.com/usa/2021-10-13/touching-the-void-would-you-cut-the-rope-to-survive.html

[js]

Dec 11, 2021 22:34:30 GMT oldnat said:

Interesting. I would be fascinated to understand how supporters of FPTP would defend this as a “fair” result.

Full disclosure, I’m not a supporter of FPTP but not interested in picking fights either, just curious.

[eor]

Dec 11, 2021 8:30:55 GMT jimjam said:

I saw an interesting hypothetical question on another site I visit periodically.

Of the last 5 PMs, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, Johnson; who would have been the best to handle Covid.

Brown, I guess based on his handling of the 2008 crash, was the overwhelming choice.

A few went for Cameron or Blair based on their better communication skills but for decision making and attention to detail Brown was was the clear preference.

I can see the logic for Brown but my concern would be - the financial crash was very much home turf for him, having identified what needed to be achieved then the routes to achieve it would have been intuitive and consistent for him. Whereas with something as novel as COVID, would he have had the decisiveness to cut through the (at times drastically conflicting) advice he'd have been getting on the likely impact of different approaches? Or would his instincts have been to keep waiting for more information and greater clarity before making substantive decisions?  

[oldnat]

js

How FPTP supporters would "justify" their choice of system, might be an exercise in imaginative self-justification.

Of the parties in that table, only the two largest insist on FPTP. What a coincidence!

For Holyrood, I note with some amusement, a number of SNP partisan supporters (who were supportive of AMS when it helped the SNP) now bitterly critical of it because it allows Unionists a fair representation there.

Political party partisans are, not infrequently, irrational.

[jimjam]

Trevor thanks for those numbers - near as damn it 1.5% direct net swing Tory-Lab from their 2019 voters.

Turk, Mordaunt would be the the one I would be most worried about as I think she is the most competent and a Brexiteer which I think it has the be to get the membership vote.

Sunak looks good atm but he has seemingly been able to take credit for the popular economic decisions, mainly furlough, but avoided any debit for the unpopular ones like HS2 back tracking. As PM he wont be able to do this. For sure he would be a challenge to Starmer and with him as leader next summer/autumn I would expect a return to a slight Tory lead or level pegging.

It is said that honeymoons for new PMs last around 3 months so early 2023 would be the testing time on that timetable.

NB) Sharma got praise all round for COP 27 but some was as an entry to criticising Johnson.

[jimjam]

EOR, perhaps it is just that people intuitively think that at a time when an activist government is needed the PM most comfortable with that approach would be best suited?

[peterbell]

Crofty, good to hear from you again. How are Rosie and Daisy.

[js]

Dec 11, 2021 22:56:59 GMT oldnat said:

js

How FPTP supporters would "justify" their choice of system, might be an exercise in imaginative self-justification.

Of the parties in that table, only the two largest insist on FPTP. What a coincidence!

For Holyrood, I note with some amusement, a number of SNP partisan supporters (who were supportive of AMS when it helped the SNP) now bitterly critical of it because it allows Unionists a fair representation there.

Political party partisans are, not infrequently, irrational.

Now now, I’m sure there must be a kinder motive they ascribe to their motivations and indeed a higher purpose. I’m just ignorant of what it might be.

I’m genuinely not trolling because this has actually never been explained to me properly. Sure I’ve heard of stability and tradition and even local representation but I’ve yet to hear a coherent defence of a party getting less votes and more seats.

I’m all ears

[peterbell]

Dec 11, 2021 22:34:30 GMT oldnat said:

These data are based on old polling results with ca 2% lead for Lab.  What would the current 6 -9% lead show.

[eor]

Dec 11, 2021 8:50:30 GMT barbara said:

Dec 11, 2021 6:44:21 GMT neilj said:

Daily Mail not pulling their punches
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10297923/Women-deserting-Boris-Johnson-Poll-shows-two-thirds-voters-dont-trust-PM.html
'Women are deserting Boris: Poll shows two thirds of all voters don't trust the PM and one in three is less likely to follow Plan B rules after party row as Tory support falls to 33%
Among female voters, Labour's lead has grown from six points to 14 points in just the past few days; it is now on 45% – compared to the Tories who fell by four points to 31%'

I'm wary of entering into the man/woman debate but as there is quite alot of evidence building both here and with Trump in the US, I'll dip a toe in the water. 
Women (including me) tend to be more unimpressed with the macho, testosterone style of politics. They tend to dislike Johnson's disregard for his wives and mistresses, his blustering and boasting, his show-off latin spouting and his dishevelled appearance. This was found regarding Trump as well where women formed a majority of Democratic voters in 2020.

It may well be that having seen a bit more of Starmer recently, particularly their contrasting styles at PMQs, that they find the calm professionalism he displays more acceptable. It's certainly the case with some of my female friends who, while not particularly aware of or interested in politics are appalled at Johnson's performance and even some who voted Brexit have declared themselves to be ABT. 
There's also evidence I think that women tend to more centre/left of centre generally.

Perhaps someone better able than me to analyse the polls could see if this move towards Starmer by women is evidenced there.

The US data doesn't actually suggest much Trump effect. The gender gap in 2020 was lower than in various recent elections, including 1996 and 2000 when Bob Dole and George W Bush would hardly be considered disruptive testosterone types.

cawp.rutgers.edu/sites/default/files/resources/ggpresvote.pdf

fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-gender-gap-may-have-shrunk-in-the-2020-election/

(different sources will cite slightly different numbers for the same election, I think this is due to data coming from exit polls, which in the US are a bit more akin to Rallings & Thrasher projections than to Prof Sir John's Election Night surveys here :-) )

[eor]

Dec 11, 2021 18:29:11 GMT alec said:

bantams - I agree that there is still plenty of time, Labour can hit trouble, and the LD's remain a shadow of their 1997 - 2015 operation, but.....context is everything.

Firstly, Johnson's victory in 2019 was the first time since 1987 that any Conservative leader secured a stable majority. That's one clear majority in over three decades.

By the same token, Labour have found one electable leader in nearly half a century, and the LibDems (and their forerunners) haven't won in over a century. So clearly precedent suggests no-one will win :-)

[eor]

Dec 11, 2021 20:22:42 GMT Danny said:

Dec 11, 2021 19:51:44 GMT steve said:

Another day when the south Africa case rates and mortality are barely changed from last week.
The seven day increase drops from 185% yesterday to 120% and falling .

total cases ther is very low. If that's it, then covid is all over and it's a bunch of loonies frightened of the dark trying to get the uk to hide from the boogeyman.

It looks increasingly like the solution to covid was always to get the safe to catch it. Which is what SA has done. That may still turn out better than mass vaccination as the uk has insisted upon. But then the UK government still needs to prove to the nation there was any point in two years of lockdown to wait for a vaccine which doesn't stop covid.

Ok, now I'm quite scared. When you declare it's all over that's usually followed by a massive new wave and a shedload of people dying of it... 

[Deleted]

Dec 11, 2021 23:05:45 GMT peterbell said:

Crofty, good to hear from you again. How are Rosie and Daisy.

Thanks Peter and the girls are both well thanks. Hope you are also.

Paul

[eor]

Dec 11, 2021 23:05:28 GMT jimjam said:

EOR, perhaps it is just that people intuitively think that at a time when an activist government is needed the PM most comfortable with that approach would be best suited?

Oh sure, I can see why people would look at that shortlist and see Brown as intuitively the safest pair of hands. I was just offering my own thoughts on it - it's an interesting question that I'll put to a few friends of various hues when I get chance.  

[eor]

crossbat11 - thanks for your thoughts and idle musings, I've missed them!

I agree with your outline about Johnson being a figure of ridicule, and how dangerous that can be, tho what I'd note on your comparisons to May and Major was that firstly May remained as PM for nearly two years after the shambolic conference speech, and secondly Major's affair with Currie didn't come out until years after he left office (and the leadership) so had no bearing on his departure - that was pretty directly down to him losing literally half his MPs in the election :-)

Whether things are already fatal for Johnson, or soon will be, I'm less clear. The zipwire alone would have finished the ambitions of most contenders, as would being an oft-sacked charlatan or having so many offensive articles written under his name, but the next two words when discussing him always seem to be "and yet...". Of course, nothing lasts forever but when someone is a serial exception to normal rules than the 20th iteration of "surely *this* time..." needs some powerful framing to be convincing.

[steve]

EOR

While Danny is inclined to hyperbole compared to the excessive scare mongering of the media and their favoured agent of doom Neil Ferguson , there's an element of truth in that.

Prior experience of coronavirus is that they mutate into minor respiratory problems ie colds.

There is really no reason to anticipate that covid 19 will be any different.
It's early days regarding the omicron variant but that real world data that is available points to a virulence rate rather lower than seasonal influenza.
We don't destroy our economy or preventative health services for the flu proportion is important.

[Danny]

Dec 11, 2021 23:02:38 GMT jimjam said:

Trevor thanks for those numbers - near as damn it 1.5% direct net swing.

Which is tiny.So much excitement about so little.

It suggests the committed havnt moved but the change is all down to the uncommitted... who could just as easily move back next week.

[tancred]

Dec 11, 2021 21:42:04 GMT mercian said:

js    

Maybe, but they're not doing it. Tories have frozen tax allowance for next few years, RefUK want to raise it to £20000 for instance. Whether this and other policies would actually work is another matter, but it is a threat to the Tories. Some policies seem a bit lefty to me, like nationalising energy companies.


reformparty.uk/reformisessential/

Wow!  Lefty policies!!  I bet you browned your trousers when you saw them.

[Deleted]

Just read that Mike Pence is considering running to be President of an increasingly surreal USA. That could take boredom to new heights.

[steve]

Attachment DeletedAnd the quiz master for tonight's (15 December 20) rule breaking number 10 general knowledge competition is Spaffer Johnson.

Question one:
What Muppet and future sacked prime minister might have tried not to be photographed breaking his own f'ing rules?

[tancred]

Dec 11, 2021 22:06:01 GMT js said:

Dec 11, 2021 21:42:04 GMT mercian said:

js    

Maybe, but they're not doing it. Tories have frozen tax allowance for next few years, RefUK want to raise it to £20000 for instance. Whether this and other policies would actually work is another matter, but it is a threat to the Tories. Some policies seem a bit lefty to me, like nationalising energy companies.


reformparty.uk/reformisessential/

Depends on the definition of “working” I would guess. Certainly raising the tax allowance to 20K would “work” for me as I would probably pay less tax. Whether that would be be beneficial for the country as a whole is less clear. What would be an absolute whopper for me would be a reduction on the taper above 100k for the personal allowance but I don’t think that’s going to be taken up as a major policy anytime soon.

So you're admitting you earn considerably more than £100k a year.  Lucky for some.