Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 11, 2021 13:24:37 GMT
'Antigenic sin', as it is known, can happen with vaccines, but it can also happen with natural infections. That's the bit where you are making an enormous mistake this time. If antigenic sin is combined with antigenic drift - where viruses mutate away from the acquired immunity (either infection or innoculation derived) you then have a problem. Each succeeding variant triggers the same immune response, so the immune system becomes less and less able to fight off the new variants as they appear. But, as I say, this can occur with either vaccines or natural infections. It is the key reason why we need to do whatever we can to limit infections. Flu has been studied much longer than covid and there it is recognised vaccines made from whole virus create more durable immunity more likely to work against new strains. The problem with vaccines based upon parts of an organism is precisely that medics picked a winner and then tried to create a huge immune response to a small target. Natural infection doesnt come close to this in risking imprinting upon a target area which then changes so the immunity fails totally. Vaccines are designed to give imprinting using a huge dose of a target molecule. giving boosters of the same vaccine is just making this worse. In nature we make a much more varied antibody response which is much less concentrated on any one target. We then deliberately allow new infections to provide exposure to new variants so we can each time update that response and move with changes in a virus. vaccine manufacturers don't seem convinced there is any point choosing a different target. To do so is rather contrary to their whole strategy. But it's not the strategy our bodies adopt based upon millions of years of experience. It's likely the manufactured vaccine has been created to suit the manufacturing technology rather than our immune system technology. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 11, 2021 13:36:16 GMT
Alec
I do hope that comment wasn't directed at me if it was I am sure you will be happy to provide a link where I suggested anything of the sort in relation to vaccination.
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Post by alec on Dec 11, 2021 14:50:59 GMT
steve - no - for yur interest only, as you were conversing with Danny.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 11, 2021 15:23:42 GMT
Alec
😊😊
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 15:41:35 GMT
Batty...Your second paragraph was unacceptably long.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 15:50:47 GMT
Trevor, Thanks for your thoughtful post at the top of page 10 where I think we agree that unless Johnson himself decides he has had enough insufficient Tory MPs will issue letters until after the locals in May. (then results will dictate of course). Just one question (an open one not just to you but prompted by your post). 50% would be unlikely but in reality a lower number is needed for the PMs position to be untenable; what is the minimum he would need to survive? I kind of reckon 65%, as a third of your MPs wishing you gone is a powerful meme for the opposition parties. Firstly can you try to use the 'tag' feature if you tag me so it pops up in my notifications and easier to find your replies if they mention me (I've blocked a lot of the flamers and as a tangent would suggest others do the same to avoid UKPR2 slipping into the 'bad ways' of UKPR) I'm not making predictions on the timing but locals in May would be certainly be a significant event and that could be the final straw. Could also be before or after that. The future is not set! As to your question then Thatcher won 90.5% in 1989 [1] but never recovered. She won 54.8% in 1990 and withdrew [2]. May won 63% in 2018 [3] (different rules) which is very close to your 65%. She limped on for a while longer but then stood down. It takes 15% to trigger a vote and I'd tend to agree that at 35% then Boris's position would certainly become untenable (ie my 50% did need correcting for the practicalities, so thank you). IIRC some others have commented that Boris might wish to protect his legacy and jump before he is pushed. He could site ' spending more time with his family' or even health issues ( Long Covid?). Can't see him doing a Cameron as there isn't such an important issue as being on the wrong side of a referendum (and even if Scot.Gov 'get on with it' then that will take too long and won't be a UK wide event, ironically it would be 'good' for both CON and LAB if Scotland become indepedent before next GE but I digress). I'm not going to predict 'how' he goes either but there is more than one way to skin a cat (especially if it is a dead cat WRT to bouncing back form the current deluge of self destruction). My only hope as someone who would like to see CON electable again in GE'24 and not have to spend a decade in the wilderness due to brand damage is that they don't allow Boris to become a Major disaster into GE'24. If LAB win purely as ABCON and CON then become internal chaos in opposition then that IMO is not good for the country. If LAB win on merit against a good blue team then that would IMO be good. Whilst a 'win' is a 'win' then I prefer to see a good game be played by both sides! [1] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Conservative_Party_leadership_election[2] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Conservative_Party_leadership_election[3] www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/dec/12/tory-mps-trigger-vote-of-no-confidence-in-may-amid-brexit-uncertainty-politics-live |
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Post by chrisaberavon on Dec 11, 2021 16:02:08 GMT
CROSS BAT 11.
Hello from a fan of MUFC.
I agree with your comment about the centre.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 11, 2021 16:12:38 GMT
Tw
Nothing like blocking contributions from those you don't agree with!
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 11, 2021 16:14:35 GMT
on Tap o`Noth [probably Scotland-only] there was a dense spread of similar boxes for the estimated 4000 Picts. the Noble Aberdeen team have spotted the DW 4000 estimate and gone for the same number. Population "estimates" are just guesswork. The 4,000 number for Tap o' Noth assumes 5 persons per house, while at Durrington, their guess is based on 4 per house! It looks like the functions were very different though. DW possibly mainly used as holiday accommodation for the winter solstice holiday, and lots of the meat was wasted. Tap o' Noth possibly a permanent settlement (with extra accommodation for visitors?) around a royal palace. We don't know. |
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Post by davwel on Dec 11, 2021 16:42:59 GMT
@ Colin 13.23 pm
Yes, that paper which you have kindly dug out gives the basic arguments of the researchers that featured on the C5 doc.
Figs 8 and 23 are especially useful. And the start of the paper`s conclusions that you posted - that the pits were constructed as part of a ceremonial monument - is a main belief that I find implausible.
But there is much to learn yet, and when I see big circles in our landscapes from overheads now available, I go to these well-planned excavations around Stonehenge for inspiration. We also walked along the North Norfolk coast to Seahenge a few years ago, which might have similar ceremonial purpose.
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Post by jayblanc on Dec 11, 2021 16:49:20 GMT
Is Johnson finished? I suspect so, but, underestimate him at your peril. If I had a quid for every time people said he was finished in the past, I'd be a rich man. People were using adjectives like 'clown', 'buffoon' and generally ridiculing him long before he even became Tory leader. He knows this - and plays on it. He always has done. Even something as recent as his 'Peppa Pig' moment - it was deliberate. It was on the front page of virtually all the papers the next day, as he knew it would be, instead of a political damaging story (I forget which one right now). This time, though, he's not in charge of the story. It's an emotional one for a lot of people, so, may have done some permanant damage. Whether it has or whether he'll bounce back remains to be seen. As to Corbyn, I feel that, even on here, he is viewed with more distain than he should be. Currently, in the middle of a political crisis that does seem to have moved the dial, Labour have increased their polling - to the level that Corbyn achieved in an actual election. Corbyn's problem electorally was twofold - first that the love for him was deep - and the extent of this is something I feel is underestimated, but, it wasn't wide enough to get him over the line. Secondly, the thought of a genuinely left wing PM spooked enough ROC people into voting for a weak May that would probably otherwise stayed at home. I have a mild concern that Boris may well just say 'Get Stuffed, I'm Prime Minister and you have no legal means to remove me without triggering an election' to the party. I'm just not sure how similar he is to Trump in that regard. Corbyn, he probably meant well. And had mostly good policies, EU aside. But he never understood that he was now in Management not just another worker. He wasn't careful about what he said in public and official appearances. He managed to damn the EU with faint praise, alienate his own cabinet multiple times, and allowed Momentum to appoint themselves the party political commissioners. The last part was the worst. It resulted in Momentum activists acting as if they spoke for Corbyn, speaking to the press and at official events, in ways that were shocking and suggested that loyalty to the leader was more important than investigating anti-semetic remarks. For some reason Corbyn could never bring himself to try to stop Momentum activists from doing this. Corbyn had the air of a well intentioned geography teacher unexpectedly promoted to head master and allowing his school to descend into bullying chaos because he believed the inherent colligate good will of man would sort things out and surely the kids he'd given good marks will be good sorts. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 11, 2021 17:02:14 GMT
Afternoon all from a dark, cold and wet PSRL, @ laszlo Its very difficult to find meaningful vi/voting pattern data for BAME voters, let alone that relating to Labour party expectations of how they vote. Given the sample size of most polling doesn't pick up sufficient numbers of people from the different sections of the BAME. The following are fairly informative: commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ge2019-how-did-demographics-affect-the-result/ukandeu.ac.uk/neema-begum-british-democracy-and-ethnic-minority-voters/news.sky.com/story/the-ethnic-data-gap-on-voters-and-why-it-matters-to-parties-and-pollsters-12365500I'm not sure many, irrespective of which side of the political spectrum, think any party manages to get 100% of any specific demographic. However, as Labour currently gets approx 2/3 of the BAME vote, as with people making lazy assumption about individuals voting tendencies based on class, I'm sure people do the same in their presumption about the voting habits of people from BAME backgrounds. TBH the extent to which Labour may or may not take the BAME vote for granted is no different to the way in which the Tories can take its core MC vote for granted as well. For me the interesting point is the extent to which trends in BAME voting behaviour is coalescing with that of the broader electorate, for instance age being more of a determinant of VI etc. I suspect, but cant really find any real evidence to support this, is that people from immigrant communities that are seen to have integrated more deeply (such as the West Indian and West African Indian Community) increasingly in terms of VI are acting in a way that is virtually indistinguishable from the broader electorate where as other groups are more distinctive in their VI. |
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Post by davwel on Dec 11, 2021 17:04:05 GMT
No joy for Crossbat, but 0-1 v Liverpool is not bad.
How Liverpool have advanced since c. 1900. Our village team South of Preston were their first opponents at the newly opened Anfield ground, and are now reduced to the Preston & District leagues. LibDems beware.
I am relatively happy with a win at Deepdale, but often the result of a new manager taking over.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 11, 2021 17:26:33 GMT
I suspect that if the Conservatives were to lose in Shropshire, I don't think they will, Johnson may resign quoting new baby as excuse. I will try and take a short excursion into the eastern edge of North Salops later today to gauge the evidence of support via posters etc. The constituency boundary is less than two miles west of us. It's archetypal rural landscape. No metropolitan elite. No ex coal mining northern wallers. Under normal circumstances dead cert 110% Tory. Well a somewhat delayed trip around Eastern North Shropshire, due to a vehicle failure that I'll not bore you with. The result - well you wouldn't think there was a parliamentary election happening in five days time. Not one sign, poster or window leaflet visible for any of the contenders. It was a dull, misty, dank, drizzly drive and it seems the folk of North Shropshire view their election in the same manner. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 11, 2021 17:57:21 GMT
steamdrivenandy,
....is that a surprise?
Labour are hardly being inspirational and perhaps aren't trying. Libs are coming from behind, with little real local base. Con are dissilusioned with their team.
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Post by alec on Dec 11, 2021 18:03:35 GMT
steve - "Nothing like blocking contributions from those you don't agree with!" I have a sneaking suspicion he desn't really. Judging by some of his posts on the energy thread, and elsewhere, there are some remarkable coincidences, where evidence provided from a 'blocked' 'flamer' gets sort of responded to in some subsequent post addressed to someone else. It's rather funny to observe, but let's be honest - the Trevs were always quite funny to watch.
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 11, 2021 18:16:30 GMT
steamdrivenandy, ....is that a surprise? Labour are hardly being inspirational and perhaps aren't trying. Libs are coming from behind, with little real local base. Con are dissilusioned with their team. Agree, Labour are only the inevitable internal disagreement away from popping their red balloon. The tories have a big issue, namely Boris, to deal with but still lots of time to bed in a new leader. Remember we're 3 years away from a GE.
I worked for the LD's for a long time, they are still a busted flush as far as I'm concerned. The odd byelection win will come here or there, the next one might be North Shropshire. If it is, expect severe gnashing of teeth at CCHQ & more letters addressed to the 1922 committee.
Nice to see old Batty back, I have to say it's great decision to bring Stevie in at Villa. Is it a year since you left us?
I listened to the cricket for 15 minutes last night. As soon as Malan was out I could see the rest of the dominoes falling over quickly but maybe not THAT quickly.
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Post by alec on Dec 11, 2021 18:29:11 GMT
bantams - I agree that there is still plenty of time, Labour can hit trouble, and the LD's remain a shadow of their 1997 - 2015 operation, but.....context is everything. Firstly, Johnson's victory in 2019 was the first time since 1987 that any Conservative leader secured a stable majority. That's one clear majority in over three decades. Secondly, he managed that because of Brexit and the worst Labour leader since 1983 [in terms of electoral appeal]. Thirdly, Brexit is, on any objective analysis, a disaster. It may not be a political disaster, but it is a disaster. Johnson himself is planning on the basis of a 4% cut to GDP which implies a spending curtailment of around £150bn over the lifetime of a parliament. Increasingly, Brexit is now being viewed as a political problem as well, and if this development continues, Conservatives will be in a heap of trouble. I would be the first to state that no one really knows what circumatsnces will prevail by the next general election, but in a very specific and unique set of circumstances in 2019, which suited Johnson's own style, Conservatives won a big majority. Can any of the current Conservative crop repeat this?
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 11, 2021 18:29:31 GMT
i newspaper reports Redfield and Wilton polling on Christmas: inews.co.uk/news/politics/covid-poll-three-quarters-of-brits-would-comply-with-christmas-ban-on-household-mixing-134770374% say they would comply with a Government ban on households mixing over Christmas; 82% say they have not changed their plans in response to the omicron variant; 54% are limiting their social contacts and 81% say they intend to have a normal Christmas. (these were all Yes/No questions with no Don't Know option) Support or oppose another lockdown: 17% strongly support 23% support 19% neither support or oppose 14% oppose 25% strongly oppose 2% Don't know 1500 polled on 8th December. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 18:54:26 GMT
i newspaper reports Redfield and Wilton polling on Christmas: inews.co.uk/news/politics/covid-poll-three-quarters-of-brits-would-comply-with-christmas-ban-on-household-mixing-134770374% say they would comply with a Government ban on households mixing over Christmas; 82% say they have not changed their plans in response to the omicron variant; 54% are limiting their social contacts and 81% say they intend to have a normal Christmas. (these were all Yes/No questions with no Don't Know option) Support or oppose another lockdown: 17% strongly support 23% support 19% neither support or oppose 14% oppose 25% strongly oppose 2% Don't know 1500 polled on 8th December. Could be some 'virtue signalling' bias in 'complying' and IIRC the 74% number used to be a lot higher in previous lockdowns. On the support/oppose (which AW has warned us is a leading question) then 40% support v 39% oppose. I'm pretty sure that is much closer than it has been in past (ie lockdowns are no longer populist). Relevance being that perhaps some of the 25% 'strongly opposed' might not accept another lockdown with a subset of those engaging the kind of riots we've seen elsewhere. I haven't seen R&W tabs but I'll post this new polling from R&W which I did find slightly surprising (in a 'pleasant' way, although note the move has, like CON'19 x-break on VI moved mostly to DK) |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 19:18:58 GMT
@ laszlo Its very difficult to find meaningful vi/voting pattern data for BAME voters, let alone that relating to Labour party expectations of how they vote. Given the sample size of most polling doesn't pick up sufficient numbers of people from the different sections of the BAME. The following are fairly informative: commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ge2019-how-did-demographics-affect-the-result/ukandeu.ac.uk/neema-begum-british-democracy-and-ethnic-minority-voters/news.sky.com/story/the-ethnic-data-gap-on-voters-and-why-it-matters-to-parties-and-pollsters-12365500I'm not sure many, irrespective of which side of the political spectrum, think any party manages to get 100% of any specific demographic. However, as Labour currently gets approx 2/3 of the BAME vote, as with people making lazy assumption about individuals voting tendencies based on class, I'm sure people do the same in their presumption about the voting habits of people from BAME backgrounds. TBH the extent to which Labour may or may not take the BAME vote for granted is no different to the way in which the Tories can take its core MC vote for granted as well. For me the interesting point is the extent to which trends in BAME voting behaviour is coalescing with that of the broader electorate, for instance age being more of a determinant of VI etc. I suspect, but cant really find any real evidence to support this, is that people from immigrant communities that are seen to have integrated more deeply (such as the West Indian and West African Indian Community) increasingly in terms of VI are acting in a way that is virtually indistinguishable from the broader electorate where as other groups are more distinctive in their VI. I think you are right - in general - about the tendency. I work - time to time - with young (20s) people from.the Asian communities and their arguments are very similar to the white British. Still, there are some differences as social strata are more blurred with ethnicity. I referred to a particular constituency in a comment to colin and there was genuinely a.conversation of how many "white" votes they would lose and how many ethnic votes they would gain by promoting the ethnicity policies of the manifesto (ethnic vote proportion is much higher there than the average). I intervened by using very dazzling (and irrelevant) statistics that I invented during the conversation (there were no figures just variables), and the subject was abandoned. {Still, the feedback in a West-Midland constituency about gender policies were more shocking.] |
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Post by graham on Dec 11, 2021 19:39:08 GMT
steamdrivenandy, ....is that a surprise? Labour are hardly being inspirational and perhaps aren't trying. Libs are coming from behind, with little real local base. Con are dissilusioned with their team. Agree, Labour are only the inevitable internal disagreement away from popping their red balloon. The tories have a big issue, namely Boris, to deal with but still lots of time to bed in a new leader. Remember we're 3 years away from a GE.
I worked for the LD's for a long time, they are still a busted flush as far as I'm concerned. The odd byelection win will come here or there, the next one might be North Shropshire. If it is, expect severe gnashing of teeth at CCHQ & more letters addressed to the 1922 committee.
Nice to see old Batty back, I have to say it's great decision to bring Stevie in at Villa. Is it a year since you left us?
I listened to the cricket for 15 minutes last night. As soon as Malan was out I could see the rest of the dominoes falling over quickly but maybe not THAT quickly.
As the law currently stands the next GE is due on May 2nd 2024 - quite a bit less than 3 years - indeed less than 2 years and 5 months! |
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 11, 2021 19:51:44 GMT
Another day when the south Africa case rates and mortality are barely changed from last week.
The seven day increase drops from 185% yesterday to 120% and falling .
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Post by hireton on Dec 11, 2021 20:06:30 GMT
9pt lead for Labour in Opinium
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Post by robert on Dec 11, 2021 20:10:07 GMT
@ Colin 13.23 pm Yes, that paper which you have kindly dug out gives the basic arguments of the researchers that featured on the C5 doc. Figs 8 and 23 are especially useful. And the start of the paper`s conclusions that you posted - that the pits were constructed as part of a ceremonial monument - is a main belief that I find implausible. But there is much to learn yet, and when I see big circles in our landscapes from overheads now available, I go to these well-planned excavations around Stonehenge for inspiration. We also walked along the North Norfolk coast to Seahenge a few years ago, which might have similar ceremonial purpose. There was an article about Seahenge in the Times a couple of days ago (We'd 8th). I've yet to watch the TV programme that you highlighted but I look forward to it. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 11, 2021 20:10:32 GMT
Hireton - you're still quick off the mark I see!
All I can add that is new is that it's the largest Labour lead Opinium have recorded in one of their polls since 2014.
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Post by hireton on Dec 11, 2021 20:11:54 GMT
Hireton - you're still quick off the mark I see! All I can add that is new is that it's the largest Labour lead Opinium have recorded in one of their polls since 2014. Arsenal supporters always are.... |
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Post by mercian on Dec 11, 2021 20:15:28 GMT
Corbyn had the air of a well intentioned geography teacher unexpectedly promoted to head master and allowing his school to descend into bullying chaos because he believed the inherent colligate good will of man would sort things out and surely the kids he'd given good marks will be good sorts. Brilliant picture! |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 20:17:26 GMT
Squeaky bum time.
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 11, 2021 20:19:28 GMT
Idle speculation that may require our more expert psephologists to verify, but I wonder what events in the lifetime of this Hydra-esque Tory administration since 2010 (Coalition -wafer thin majority - minority - and then 80 seater) have had such a significant and fast acting effect on the opinion polls?
Has there been an equivalent tectonic shift, I wonder? This is going to be spooking a lot of Tory MPs now, I would think.
North Shropshire awaits. Governments on the slide tend to run out of luck and I would have thought that the last thing the Tories would want right now is a by-election in a normally rock solid Tory stronghold. Lose it and the crisis of confidence will be lit up in great big neon lights.
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