|
|
Post by t7g4 on Dec 11, 2021 8:39:45 GMT
I saw an interesting hypothetical question on another site I visit periodically. Of the last 5 PMs, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, Johnson; who would have been the best to handle Covid. Brown, I guess based on his handling of the 2008 crash, was the overwhelming choice. A few went for Cameron or Blair based on their better communication skills but for decision making and attention to detail Brown was was the clear preference. Brown was a very unrated PM. Very levelheaded and I think would have been the best to get the country through the pandemic. Mark Drakeford and Sturgeon have been heavily praised for their communication and directness so perhaps Cameron or Blair may have also faired better but Brown for me. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,568
|
Post by Danny on Dec 11, 2021 8:46:14 GMT
Labour doing well in the polls without opening their mouths. This seems to be a strategy that is working for the time being. I doubt there will be a UK GE until the last possible moment or May 23 at the earliest. We are in the essence of midterm and a government that’s been in power for 11 years is expected to be behind. I don’t think the current polling will get better for the Conservatives for the foreseeable future especially with more lockdown restrictions. Not having a policy to remain in the eu cost labour the 2019 election. Though half the party attacking corbyn didn't help either. They seem to have believed better a conservative gov than a corbyn one. At the moment the self sabotage factor is strong in the Tory party too. Bringing down johnson could cause a party split and general election. I don't doubt some think that would be a very good idea because the party is in a very difficult policy position right now with a dawning realisation lockdown was a mistake and brexit going increasingly badly. |
|
|
|
Post by barbara on Dec 11, 2021 8:50:30 GMT
I'm wary of entering into the man/woman debate but as there is quite alot of evidence building both here and with Trump in the US, I'll dip a toe in the water. Women (including me) tend to be more unimpressed with the macho, testosterone style of politics. They tend to dislike Johnson's disregard for his wives and mistresses, his blustering and boasting, his show-off latin spouting and his dishevelled appearance. This was found regarding Trump as well where women formed a majority of Democratic voters in 2020. It may well be that having seen a bit more of Starmer recently, particularly their contrasting styles at PMQs, that they find the calm professionalism he displays more acceptable. It's certainly the case with some of my female friends who, while not particularly aware of or interested in politics are appalled at Johnson's performance and even some who voted Brexit have declared themselves to be ABT. There's also evidence I think that women tend to more centre/left of centre generally. Perhaps someone better able than me to analyse the polls could see if this move towards Starmer by women is evidenced there. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,762
Member is Online
|
Post by steve on Dec 11, 2021 9:06:47 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by jimjam on Dec 11, 2021 9:11:31 GMT
Barbara,
Gender voting splits have moved over the last few decades with at one time men more likely to back Labour.
This is generally thought to be the union influence but as membership of unions has declined and women are now a much higher proportion of union membership.
On a philosophical level fewer men as a %age than in the past but more women are part of collective structures which are likely to ease them leftwards.
I would agree with the specifics around this particular Tory leader as well but, like you, have no evidence just a sense.
It could be that the gender gap on VI is to do with policies and nothing to do with Johnson but I expect you are correct.
|
|
|
|
Post by barbara on Dec 11, 2021 9:15:39 GMT
Barbara, Gender voting splits have moved over the last few decades with at one time men more likely to back Labour. This is generally thought to be the union influence but as membership of unions has declined and women are now a much higher proportion of union membership. On a philosophical level fewer men as a %age than in the past but more women are part of collective structures which are likely to ease them leftwards. I would agree with the specifics around this particular Tory leader as well but, like you, have no evidence just a sense. It could be that the gender gap on VI is to do with policies and nothing to do with Johnson but I expect you are correct. If I get the chance I'll try to find the evidence but I do recall that the a larger percentage of women voted remain. I also think there was evidence that on policies women focus more on domestic issues, childcare, education, health, pensions, etc and less on foreign policy. I will try to to back all this up with some evidence as soon as I have a bit of time. (Just having my breakfast at the moment!) |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,570
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Dec 11, 2021 9:20:29 GMT
Barbara, Gender voting splits have moved over the last few decades with at one time men more likely to back Labour. This is generally thought to be the union influence but as membership of unions has declined and women are now a much higher proportion of union membership. On a philosophical level fewer men as a %age than in the past but more women are part of collective structures which are likely to ease them leftwards. I would agree with the specifics around this particular Tory leader as well but, like you, have no evidence just a sense. It could be that the gender gap on VI is to do with policies and nothing to do with Johnson but I expect you are correct. If I get the chance I'll try to find the evidence but I do recall that the a larger percentage of women voted remain. I also think there was evidence that on policies women focus more on domestic issues, childcare, education, health, pensions, etc and less on foreign policy. I will try to to back all this up with some evidence as soon as I have a bit of time. (Just having my breakfast at the moment!) Looking at the below link (info came from exit polls, 51% of women voted remain and 49% leave. For men 55% voted to leave and 45% remain www.statista.com/statistics/567922/brexit-votes-by-gender/ |
|
|
|
Post by barbara on Dec 11, 2021 9:23:15 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by hireton on Dec 11, 2021 9:37:41 GMT
Not sure if this has been posted already but just in case it hasn't:
8 pt lead for Labour in You Gov with the (prompted) Green VI holding at 7% is not good for the Tories.
|
|
|
|
Post by t7g4 on Dec 11, 2021 9:38:16 GMT
Johnson is toast as simple as that.
His credibility has heavily diminished and I don’t think he will recover from this.
Just today I heard people say that I voted for him…..but. It’s game over. His popularity has shrunk and we are heading to the end of his premiership.
Perhaps secretly an expected defeat next week in Shropshire may be what some in the party will be hoping for so they start a challenge.
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,570
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Dec 11, 2021 9:40:42 GMT
Not sure if this has been posted already but just in case it hasn't: 8 pt lead for Labour in You Gov with the (prompted) Green VI holding at 7% is not good for the Tories. From yougov that is quite extraordinary, just a few months ago they were showing a ten point lead for the Conservatives |
|
|
|
Post by mandolinist on Dec 11, 2021 9:42:51 GMT
Johnson is toast as simple as that. His credibility has heavily diminished and I don’t think he will recover from this. Just today I heard people say that I voted for him…..but. It’s game over. His popularity has shrunk and we are heading to the end of his premiership. Perhaps secretly an expected defeat next week in Shropshire may be what some in the party will be hoping for so they start a challenge. I suspect that if the Conservatives were to lose in Shropshire, I don't think they will, Johnson may resign quoting new baby as excuse. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 9:59:23 GMT
BJ doesn't seem to be the type who would walk away for the good of the Party. Unless perhaps Carrie persuaded him for family reasons.
But it seems unlikely to me.
His problem at present is that his USP-National Cheer Leader & Chief Optimist-is a busted flush. The jokes won't work anymore because you have to be delivering and achieving . Without that they are just clownish vacuity. I have lost count of Clown Cartoons in the papers.
And the constant press reporting of a yet another new "adviser" to provide grip in the No.10 operation destroys any idea of Chairman of The Board.
He is beginning to visibly appear like an impediment to the governance we need right now. For me this became painfully evident at the last Coronavirus PC. Flanked by the nation's two senior scientific officers delivering a dire public health warning on national tv, he had to answer questions on partying at No. 10. Shaking his head and doing that hair thing he does ,as the questions kept coming you just wanted him to be in a different room. I think he did too.
I don't know what will happen. I hope Con. MPs understand what they need to do.
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,570
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Dec 11, 2021 10:05:47 GMT
I wonder if his financial situation will hasten/sweeten his resignation. He undoubtedly will earn a lot more money outside of Parliament
|
|
|
|
Post by bardin1 on Dec 11, 2021 10:09:55 GMT
On TOH - I retain some hope, that absent any clear good news on Brexit, on Conservative fortunes or indeed on the cricket, he is simply keeping his own counsel and using his limited energies to better purpose than the squabbles here. He had taken to doing that for significant periods on the old site, and it's also worth noting that we've not seen any proof of worse. Given his real name slipped out a few times due to browser tendencies, nothing shows up in google searches of formal notices and as davwel noted no reaction in a niche community he'd be assumed to be known in. So my fingers at least remain crossed! That all stopped after the first Kasparov/ Karpov match which last 48 games (including 40 draws) and left Karpov mentally and physically exhausted oops replied to the wrong post!, but I hope you are right |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 10:16:45 GMT
Not sure if this has been posted already but just in case it hasn't: 8 pt lead for Labour in You Gov with the (prompted) Green VI holding at 7% is not good for the Tories. Just looking at the tables on this one :- WNV/DK falling and moving to ABT. Con retention of GE 2019 vote is 53% ! WNV for 25-49 yo is 16% -+ 17% DK ! DK for over 50s at 19/20% Smells of creeping disillusion. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,568
|
Post by Danny on Dec 11, 2021 10:19:11 GMT
interesting to speculate whether Johnson might want to step back from leading announcements about new covid restrictions because actually he doesn't believe there should be any.
|
|
|
|
Post by hireton on Dec 11, 2021 10:22:37 GMT
Re Johnson, I think it is useful to draw a distinction between being in office and being in power. Whether or not he remains in office, the past couple of weeks have seen his political authority drain away and with it his political power.
|
|
|
|
Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 11, 2021 10:28:28 GMT
Johnson is toast as simple as that. His credibility has heavily diminished and I don’t think he will recover from this. Just today I heard people say that I voted for him…..but. It’s game over. His popularity has shrunk and we are heading to the end of his premiership. Perhaps secretly an expected defeat next week in Shropshire may be what some in the party will be hoping for so they start a challenge. I suspect that if the Conservatives were to lose in Shropshire, I don't think they will, Johnson may resign quoting new baby as excuse. I will try and take a short excursion into the eastern edge of North Salops later today to gauge the evidence of support via posters etc. The constituency boundary is less than two miles west of us. It's archetypal rural landscape. No metropolitan elite. No ex coal mining northern wallers. Under normal circumstances dead cert 110% Tory. But they start off having had an MP that exploited the position that they put him in, for his own benefit, which diminishes the faith. And that's compounded by the shenanigans to try and keep the MP in post etc. Then you have Partygate, Flatgate and a background of PPEgate and, maybe for some Covidgate. Add all that together and it's a rich seam for opposition parties to mine and is bound to give even the most faithful pause for thought. Add into that the opportunity to effectively give a free hit to the government to express disapproval without scaring the horses and there's the perfect recipe for a turnover. Just think along all those things mentioned above and then think what it says about a Conservative voter in North Shropshire this Thursday. They're happy to support and condone all of the above when they had the chance to express disapproval at no overall risk. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 10:32:15 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 10:46:22 GMT
Barbara, Gender voting splits have moved over the last few decades with at one time men more likely to back Labour. This is generally thought to be the union influence but as membership of unions has declined and women are now a much higher proportion of union membership. On a philosophical level fewer men as a %age than in the past but more women are part of collective structures which are likely to ease them leftwards. I would agree with the specifics around this particular Tory leader as well but, like you, have no evidence just a sense. It could be that the gender gap on VI is to do with policies and nothing to do with Johnson but I expect you are correct. I helped to analyse the voters' feedback in the canvassing during the 2019 campaign in one of the redbrick (retained just about) constituency - there was a distinct dislike of the gender equality points in the manifesto by many of male voters . |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 11:21:12 GMT
@laszlo That survey of Ethnic Minority voting is interesting . Insofar as your post is connected to my earlier exchanges with steve , I was raising the issue of expectation by LP about this communities voting preferences , rather than the preferences themselves. So in reading it I didn't expect to see my question addressed-but it is -in the Conclusion :- " Meanwhile, Labour in the past has suffered from the perception that minority voters are taken for granted – for instance, this dissatisfaction contributed to George Galloway’s 2012 win in Bradford West." It would have been good to see a little more supporting evidence for the "perception" which they describe . |
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 11, 2021 11:28:01 GMT
Some random thoughts and idle musings. In the case of Stevie Gerrard's return to Anfield this afternoon as Villa Manager, maybe that should be idol musings!
Firstly, on all things politics and, apologies in advance, I haven't been lurking or reading much upthread, so some of this may well be old hat by now. I suspect Johnson is finished and we're talking about the timing of his departure rather than any notions of longer term recovery. He's now a subject of widespread ridicule, bordering on contempt, and that spells political death. Think Major post Currie tryst and May post Conference speech and cough to the background of collapsing logos etc. My musing on this takes me to his likely successor as Tory PM/Leader. I think they're in a pickle on this with no obvious sure-fire winner as successor. The thought of Truss or Hunt must get Labour strategists salivating and Javid and Sunak look like classic Tory stereotypes, maybe not in terms of ethnicity, but definitely in terms of class, wealth and ideology. Heineken Johnson they ain't and, for all Johnson's weaknesses, when they defenestrate him, out with the baby goes a lot of #BorisTopBloke votes. A Sunak led Tory Party, for example, returns them to their habitual, until Brexit and Johnson, mid 30s vote. The electoral vulnerability that stalked them for nigh on 30 years will return. Tommy Robertson and the far Right won't entertain Sunak etc and the days of 42% will be but distant and fond memories. If Starmer can get on to the centre ground more firmly, and there is evidence that social democratic pennants are being sunk into this priceless political ground in greater numbers now, then Labour could put Toryism where Blair put it for virtually a generation. I accept the Ming Vase difficulty, shiny floors and all that, but Johnson has so wounded the Tory brand beast that the doors are flying from ajar to wide open for the former DPP and all round good egg. There may be a market in politics now for old fashioned decency. The recent stonkingly good polls for Labour are harbingers of nothing in General Election terms, but their effect on party morale ( plus North Shropshire to come anyone?), and the seed they plant in the public's mind, mustn't be belittled. Momentum is a key factor in politics and an upward trajectory can be as self-perpetuating as a downward slide. We live in interesting times.
The First Test at the Gabba was a disappointment and I fear, in Australian conditions, suggests a one-sided series to come. Two pink ball day-nighters in Adelaide and Hobart may give us a chance of a win against the head ( a nod to TOH with that rugby metaphor) but I fear routs in Melbourne and Sydney where Cummins, Starc, Green and Hazelwood will blow away our brittle batting.
As for football, my 12 month UKPR sabbatical prevented me entering into a a myriad of discussions on the Euro 20 tournament. What a time we had and I thoroughly enjoyed it all. Many a beery pub visited. The old round ball game ball, as it often does, brought with it some much needed joy and national unity. England's participation in international football tournaments seems to be one of the few shared national experiences now. Even OldNat got caught up in it, I'm sure!!
Bring it on at Anfield this afternoon where I fully expect us to be marmalised by the best club side in Europe bar none. Stevie G fist pumping the Kop at the end before being dragged away by embarrassed Villa coaching staff. He then, diplomatically, applauds the Villa away contingent as he goes down the Anfield tunnel.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 11:57:10 GMT
@laszlo That survey of Ethnic Minority voting is interesting . Insofar as your post is connected to my earlier exchanges with steve , I was raising the issue of expectation by LP about this communities voting preferences , rather than the preferences themselves. So in reading it I didn't expect to see my question addressed-but it is -in the Conclusion :- " Meanwhile, Labour in the past has suffered from the perception that minority voters are taken for granted – for instance, this dissatisfaction contributed to George Galloway’s 2012 win in Bradford West." It would have been good to see a little more supporting evidence for the "perception" which they describe . Yes, I got lost a bit as I was catching up with the comments of about two days (I was far too busy with other things). I know that in some of the Northern towns (and cities) Labour takes the Asian ethnic votes granted, especially know it well in one of the constituencies in the Greater Manchester area. At some point (before the 2019 elections) they even tried to estimate the lost and gained votes due to the ethnicity points in the manifesto. It wasn't a nice experience to me to listen the discussions... |
|
|
|
Post by Mark on Dec 11, 2021 12:27:44 GMT
Is Johnson finished? I suspect so, but, underestimate him at your peril. If I had a quid for every time people said he was finished in the past, I'd be a rich man.
People were using adjectives like 'clown', 'buffoon' and generally ridiculing him long before he even became Tory leader. He knows this - and plays on it. He always has done.
Even something as recent as his 'Peppa Pig' moment - it was deliberate. It was on the front page of virtually all the papers the next day, as he knew it would be, instead of a political damaging story (I forget which one right now).
This time, though, he's not in charge of the story. It's an emotional one for a lot of people, so, may have done some permanant damage. Whether it has or whether he'll bounce back remains to be seen.
As to Corbyn, I feel that, even on here, he is viewed with more distain than he should be.
Currently, in the middle of a political crisis that does seem to have moved the dial, Labour have increased their polling - to the level that Corbyn achieved in an actual election.
Corbyn's problem electorally was twofold - first that the love for him was deep - and the extent of this is something I feel is underestimated, but, it wasn't wide enough to get him over the line.
Secondly, the thought of a genuinely left wing PM spooked enough ROC people into voting for a weak May that would probably otherwise stayed at home.
|
|
|
|
Post by alec on Dec 11, 2021 12:42:11 GMT
@danny (and steve) "It is possible that imprinting people on the wrong set of antibodies with a vaccine will give them a pattern which cannot be shifted by mild new infections. so they remain susceptible to repeat infection because that antibody is a bit off. Ask Alec, he posted it several times but stopped after I pointed out keep re vaccinating with a poor vaccine was the most likely way for this to happen." It is perfectly possible, but no, I didn't cease posting about after you said anything. I take almost no note of anything you say over covid as you have a record of near total innaccuracy in this area. As is the case here. 'Antigenic sin', as it is known, can happen with vaccines, but it can also happen with natural infections. That's the bit where you are making an enormous mistake this time. If antigenic sin is combined with antigenic drift - where viruses mutate away from the acquired immunity (either infection or innoculation derived) you then have a problem. Each succeeding variant triggers the same immune response, so the immune system becomes less and less able to fight off the new variants as they appear. But, as I say, this can occur with either vaccines or natural infections. It is the key reason why we need to do whatever we can to limit infections. |
|
|
|
Post by mandolinist on Dec 11, 2021 12:45:57 GMT
I suspect that if the Conservatives were to lose in Shropshire, I don't think they will, Johnson may resign quoting new baby as excuse. I will try and take a short excursion into the eastern edge of North Salops later today to gauge the evidence of support via posters etc. The constituency boundary is less than two miles west of us. It's archetypal rural landscape. No metropolitan elite. No ex coal mining northern wallers. Under normal circumstances dead cert 110% Tory. But they start off having had an MP that exploited the position that they put him in, for his own benefit, which diminishes the faith. And that's compounded by the shenanigans to try and keep the MP in post etc. Then you have Partygate, Flatgate and a background of PPEgate and, maybe for some Covidgate. Add all that together and it's a rich seam for opposition parties to mine and is bound to give even the most faithful pause for thought. Add into that the opportunity to effectively give a free hit to the government to express disapproval without scaring the horses and there's the perfect recipe for a turnover. Just think along all those things mentioned above and then think what it says about a Conservative voter in North Shropshire this Thursday. They're happy to support and condone all of the above when they had the chance to express disapproval at no overall risk. Thank you for this reply, I think my reluctance to celebrate prematurely is based on the risk of the ABT vote being split between Labour and LD. History would suggest a strong Labour showing, yet Lib Dems are claiming they can win, it always muddies the water and makes it harder for ABT to judge where to place their cross. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 12:47:04 GMT
Had a look at change between YouGov June 16/17 ( Headline VI 45/31) and the Oct 10 one ( 32/40)
"If there were a general election held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?"
Con -10
Lab +4
LD +1
SNP -1
RUK +2
Other +1
WNV -1
DK +3
"2019 GE"
Con -15
Lab +6
LD +1
RUK +5
Green +1
Others +1
DK +4
""2016 Leave "
Con -13
Lab +3
LD +1
SNP -1
RUK +3
Green +1
Other +1
WNV +1
DK +5
With trepidation -things for Con to hang on to :-
* This is not a mass Con exodus to Lab.
* Shift to DK is as significant as to RUK
But how long before this somewhat tentative and scattergun disenchantment solidifies into a clear new preference ?
|
|
|
|
Post by davwel on Dec 11, 2021 12:54:12 GMT
Thanks to Alec, Mercian, jib, old nat and any I have missed on my quick browsing of the posts on Durrington Wells and its pits.
The C5 documentary told of a population of 4000 (Alec) so that would need a lot of food. I think there was a reconstruction screen shown in the doc (or perhaps my browsing) with many little boxes for their accommodation, and when we had earlier docs on Tap o`Noth [probably Scotland-only] there was a dense spread of similar boxes for the estimated 4000 Picts.
But Durrington Wells was 2000-3000 years earlier than T o`Noth.
The arrangement of these new-found pits is not a regular circle, which might suggest they were practical rather than ceremonial. My weak hunch is that they served the nearest dwellers/campers.
I have another hunch, noting ON`s report of archaeologist rivalries, that the Noble Aberdeen team have spotted the DW 4000 estimate and gone for the same number. But gazing up at the supposedly-inhabited area around Rhynie, I do wonder how ever it was possible.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2021 13:23:31 GMT
davwelI didn't see the C5 documentary on the Durrington Walls Pits. Are they the features described and assessed in this paper ? intarch.ac.uk/journal/issue55/4/full-text.htmlIf so this is the first para of its "Conclusion" "The data presented here suggest that a series of features, most likely large pits, surrounds the Durrington Walls henge enclosure, and that this group represents an elaboration of the monument complex at a massive, and unexpected, scale. Analysis indicates that the surviving pits may have been laid out with respect to the recently discovered Larkhill causewayed enclosure. The data also hint at evidence for the maintenance of this monumental structure into the Middle Bronze Age which, if correct, would have significant implications for our understanding of the history and development of monumental structures across the Stonehenge landscape." Amazing. How little we really know of these extraordinary structures and their purposes !
|
|
