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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 18:33:50 GMT
Colin Sorry about the time delay in answering re will people vote for Truss. That’s a unknown quantity until any leader has time to be seen and heard as leader and how they manage things like PMQ’s and come across in the media it’s impossible to say how people will vote. I think she will go down well with traditional Tory voters as she is what they might regard as a Conservative in the traditional sense low tax, small government something Johnson hasn’t been able to embrace mainly because of the pandemic and it’s frightening cost to the treasury. As I said she is a competent experienced politician who prepares well when answering questions again something Johnson sadly lacks. She is fairly popular with grass root conservatives and would receive a fair number of votes from the membership ,it would be between her and Sunak . Hunt as far as I can tell is not that popular he is in that awkward squad who has spent much of his time since losing his job trying to interfere with current Tory policy in the NHS which hasn’t endeared him to the Tory membership. Having said all that I certainly wouldn’t dismiss an relative unknown coming forward a new broom sort of thing but I wouldn’t be to certain that it won’t still be Johnson leading the charge in the next GE . As always in politics the role of PM is dependent on how they are seen to have managed various different situations at the moment he is out of favour with the public how long that will last remains to be seen. Fortunately for Johnson his opposite number is almost as unpopular as him and the move to Labour is more of a protest vote rather than based on Labour policies. Personally I think if he is lucky the political gods may be realigning for Johnson but as always with him it will be more by luck than judgement. It may well be that if he is seen to be right to hold back on restrictions and the booster program continues to be a successful and of course Omicron is infact much less deadly than Delta then the public mood may well change in his favour. In any case at the moment there is little appetite for a leadership battle within the party I would think it’s more likely that any change would happen in 2023 rather than this coming year but nobody has a Cristal ball when it comes to politics so it’s very much watch this space. Thanks Turk. That's helpful. Its all a bit THrough a Glass Darkly at present. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 29, 2021 18:34:44 GMT
Paul.
It doesn't but we're not supposed to point it out otherwise we get described as covid deniers.
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 29, 2021 18:37:24 GMT
I am sir/madam, your obedient servant. She’s a senior, female, Lady of the Board. So you should curtsy, Batman. I'd like to see Batty curtsy proper like! |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 29, 2021 18:38:40 GMT
Bardin Very nice I always think Streatham high road looks at its best in the fog . Wasn't it renamed St Reatham? |
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Post by turk on Dec 29, 2021 18:41:07 GMT
Graham
I wouldn’t think the Tory membership would be in the slightest interested in Truss personal life especially a one off affair that happened 17yrs ago, perhaps they tend to have a more grown up view of life than some with a more immature outlook.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 29, 2021 18:48:50 GMT
Alec
I have no intention of apologising for being right.
I won't expect one from your good self for being wrong.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 29, 2021 18:54:40 GMT
Turk
Given that the current occupier of the prime minister's office was cheating on his then wife with his current version while his wife was being treated for cancer it doesn't say a lot about their maturity of outlook.
It does however suggest they might be bereft of a moral compass.
Truss's extra marital activities aren't really in the same class and don't impact on her abject incompetence.
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Post by graham on Dec 29, 2021 18:58:00 GMT
Graham I wouldn’t think the Tory membership would be in the slightest interested in Truss personal life especially a one off affair that happened 17yrs ago, perhaps they tend to have a more grown up view of life than some with a more immature outlook. I was not aware that the said affair was as far back as 17 years, but I think you will find that many older traditional Tory types are not likely to be impressed at the prospect of having an adultress as their leader and PM.Were Thatcher or May to have had that baggage, neither would have become party leader. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 29, 2021 18:58:33 GMT
To sweeten the pill of a WT then HMG could (and IMO should) also approve more production (eg Jackdaw field) - some 'quid pro quo' and a Win/Win IMO. We'll continue to need N.Sea O+G to 'bridge' to Net Zero and the risks on production and drop in future demand would not be a taxpayer risk. IMO it is absurd we don't tap more nat.gas in N.Sea But government policy is to restrict use of fossil fuels and thereby force the private sector to invest in renewables. Providing more ff is contrary to policy, which is to use the market to effect this change. Perhaps unsurprisingly this policy just backfired. We dont have governments which believe it is the role of government to ensure continuity of essential infrastructure. Rather they created an energy market designed to create what is effectively a monopoly supplier cartel. Prices soar? How unsurprising.
Doesnt really help what you call it. The only reason we have been able to find as much funny money for government is because we printed it. The same as zimbabwe except we wrapped it up in fancy words and sleight of hand. The world is awash with money and that is fundamentally why fuel prices are soaring. In 2008 the world got away with this, but the imposed idleness of the last year and a half is finally coming home to roost. Plus the Uk has a very costly brexit to finance on top. It is entirely possible we may end up at the door of the IMF and wish we were in the position of Italy ten years ago. Its not at all true energy demand is inelastic. Personally i am enjoying the cheap energy while it lasts. Get out the sweaters and turn down the heat when price dictates. But we are very rich, the world energy demand is ever increasing and government has imposed a policy for wholesale energy pricing designed to make money for generators at the expense of the public. Its a national scandal. Its another reason for a spring election. If mortgage costs rise then the inflationary pressure this produces will make the energy problem look tiny. Even if it has been removed from the official inflaion indexes. Mass mortgage default and price collapse was the great fear in 2008. Conditions have not much changed. Although fewer people would be starting in negative equity, doubling their mortgage bill would see a wave of defaults and government popularity plummet. In the last ten years we could have defued this problem as Laszlo suggests needs to happen, but the time to do that is never during a crisis. It was in the 'good' years of the cameron government. Instead they piled back on the pressure pushing up asset values. |
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Post by alec on Dec 29, 2021 19:03:04 GMT
steve - the numbers in hospital will have grown by 1000 a day for the last four days across the UK. The data I cited was for England only, and is 48 hours out of date. I gave you the figures to demonstrate that the reported 900 a day increase is what has already been happening for some time. I just don't see any point in denying the obvious - that hospitals are experiencing a large influx of covid patients and the numbers of covid patients in hospitals is now starting to surge.
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Post by eor on Dec 29, 2021 19:04:35 GMT
I don't know if we have an award for Confusing Metaphor of the Year but... It was a tongue in cheek reference to Shevii's description of "my creeping assumption" in his reply to an earlier post of mine. In a literal sense it was nonsensical and just a bit of an in joke. No metaphor was attempted, nor was it borrowed! My apologies then - whilst my own comment was also intended tongue-in-cheek I had indeed missed the reference you were making, and instead imagined you in the grips of whimsical disorientation, quite possibly as a side-effect of self-medication applied in readiness for the start of Day 3 down under  |
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 29, 2021 19:14:06 GMT
Turk Given that the current occupier of the prime minister's office was cheating on his then wife with his current version while his wife was being treated for cancer it doesn't say a lot about their maturity of outlook. It does however suggest they might be bereft of a moral compass. Truss's extra marital activities aren't really in the same class and don't impact on her abject incompetence. It's very strange that you seem to class every Tory as Angela Rayner would portray them, scum or equivalent, but the sun appears to shine out of the rear end of all the Labour or LD politicians you cherish. Funny old game as the late lamented Greavsie would adequately have put it.
I find some Tory politicians incompetent and I find some Labour politicians incompetent, some can talk the talk but can't walk the walk. It's always been thus. The LD's are a busted flush, they lost so many key workers, including me, because of Nick Clegg et al.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 19:25:58 GMT
In this week's levelling up news. The Government is under pressure to explain why it awarded hundreds of thousands of pounds of “levelling up” money to fill the potholes of an aristocrat’s driveway. Well if they’re going to take it literally, my new fridge-freezer needs levelling, if they want to chuck a couple hundred grand my way. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 29, 2021 19:29:15 GMT
Eight days ago, my wife (especially shielded) had her two-monthly consultation with her Aberdeen ARI consultant. He advised her that her 3rd jab/booster vaccine, given on Oct 6th, was rapidly losing its effectiveness being 10-weeks old, so she had to make sure she had her FOURTH jab in early January - "Chase them if they don`t send you a fourth jab appointment". It`s a worrying time for all of us 70-plus year-olds. And people still pretend this is a good vaccine?
I mean, that any of them are good vaccines? Its not as if maybe a dozen different companies havnt been trying to make a better one than their competitors!
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 29, 2021 19:31:26 GMT
In this week's levelling up news. The Government is under pressure to explain why it awarded hundreds of thousands of pounds of “levelling up” money to fill the potholes of an aristocrat’s driveway. Well if they’re going to take it literally, my new fridge-freezer needs levelling, if they want to chuck a couple hundred grand my way. Do you know anything about regassing fridge freezers? |
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Post by somerjohn on Dec 29, 2021 19:33:56 GMT
Graham: many older traditional Tory types are not likely to be impressed at the prospect of having an adultress as their leader and PM.Were Thatcher or May to have had that baggage, neither would have become party leader.
Unlike me to defend Tories, but I have to say you are displaying extraordinary male chauvinism there. Tory members elected a known adulterer to be party leader and PM, so I see no reason why they should treat a female adulterer differently.
Of course, there will be a few remaining old duffers with glaringly double standards, but I don't think there's much place for them in the Trevs' 'New Model Tories' - they've probably already been seen off by the coke-snorting, spad-shagging, bung-grabbing antics.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 19:42:16 GMT
Well if they’re going to take it literally, my new fridge-freezer needs levelling, if they want to chuck a couple hundred grand my way. Do you know anything about regassing fridge freezers? Nope. I got a new one instead, and just would quite like it if they gave me a couple hundred grand to level it. I’m hoping you don’t have to be a Tory to get the money... |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Dec 29, 2021 19:43:09 GMT
Steve
"Gage-ing" the success (or otherwise) of a vague policy like "Levelling Up" does require some practical demonstration. As long as the drive concerned was levelled by filling in the potholes, that should surely be counted as success - compared to removing the surface surrounding the potholes, which would be "Levelling Down".
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 29, 2021 19:50:24 GMT
Hi John No economist that I know of claims it is a law of nature. What they say is that this has been the experience in the past, and it is therefore probable that it will hold in the future. The point is normally raised as a rebuff by pro-free trade economists (which is what most of then tend to be) to concerns that it leads to a loss of jobs or downgrading of opportunities etc. When I was studying IPE in the late '90's to my recollection, in support of arguments for free trade, it was trotted out in text books and lectures with very little caveating and very much come across as an article of faith. At the time if you challenged the logic of free trade you were very much perceived as an illiterate heretic. To be fair, many economist have moderated/shifted their position on free trade and its benefits since then (1990's) The shift as you show from your Krugman quotes is nuance rather than fundamental. When I was studying economics there was a branch called welfare economics which pointed out that it was no good talking about general economic advantage without considering distributional effects, and that losers have to be compensated before you can claim benefit from free trade. Of course every individual can’t be compensated - there is no compensation if you had a skill that gave job satisfaction but is now redundant. But most modern economies do at least try and provide some compensation in the form of payment for retraining and generous benefits (not unfortunately the USA, which explains some of its problems). Economics 101 has always been simplistic about free trade but you have to start somewhere. One other point usually skated over is that the benefits accrue mostly to the powerful. There’s a reason why Britain was the main advocate of free trade in the 1800s and the USA in the 1900s, and China is now taking an interest in the 2000s. I’d still argue that on the whole trade is beneficial, and helps to generate improved productivity in the economy as a whole, which is the main basis for improving living standards. As well as directly providing goods and services of a higher quality more cheaply. But distributional issues need to be actively addressed. There is a further problem which is about loss aversion (see Kahnemann et al). People who lose out tend to feel much more strongly about it, and this is intensified when losses are evident and gains diffuse. This is a real problem for a democracy as it provides a strong bias towards stasis and decline. Anecdote wins out over statistics every time. People sympathise with those threatened by immigrants or imports or technology. So protection of any sort is popular, even if the medium term results are not. Politically that leads to protective propaganda while trying to actually let the economy adjust - a difficult trick to pull off and a fundamentally dishonest one. Which enhances cynicism about politicians and weakens democracy. I’m basically pessimistic about democratic prospects right now. |
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Post by graham on Dec 29, 2021 19:50:46 GMT
Graham: many older traditional Tory types are not likely to be impressed at the prospect of having an adultress as their leader and PM.Were Thatcher or May to have had that baggage, neither would have become party leader.Unlike me to defend Tories, but I have to say you are displaying extraordinary male chauvinism there. Tory members elected a known adulterer to be party leader and PM, so I see no reason why they should treat a female adulterer differently. Of course, there will be a few remaining old duffers with glaringly double standards, but I don't think there's much place for them in the Trevs' 'New Model Tories' - they've probably already been seen off by the coke-snorting, spad-shagging, bung-grabbing antics. somerjohn, I can understand why you might see such remarks as chauvinistic - and I fully recognise the hypocrisy and double standards implied ! - but I strongly suspect that it reflects the reality of how many older traditional Tory party members view the world.Many of them do expect higher standard of 'ladies' - and quite a few of them will not view Liz Truss as a 'lady'. Do you really believe that if Thatcher or May had had Johnson's personal baggage that either would have ascended to the leadership?
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 29, 2021 19:52:20 GMT
Nice fridge freezer then, 24k gold plated?
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 29, 2021 19:53:37 GMT
I'm advised that regassing domestic fridges/freezers etc is not possible, apparently it's not like car aircon systems. Indeed they tend not to lose gas through brittle seals like cars do, so the issue rarely occurs and it tends to be much cheaper to replace if there's damage and gas escapes.
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Post by turk on Dec 29, 2021 19:59:09 GMT
Colin
Couldn’t agree more it was ever thus in politics . On another subject I see the U.K. has a shortage of lateral flow test kits. All I can say you should be in the US we really have a shortage of kits here and those that are available are rapidly going up in price. They use to be 25 bucks now if you can get hold of one it’s 75 bucks. The US gets it’s kits from China mostly I don’t know if it’s the same in the U.K.
It does seem to be a worldwide problem I suppose it’s the sudden demand for kits caused by people wanting to meet relatives over the Christmas period let’s hope it gets better soon what would we do without China eh.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 19:59:27 GMT
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 29, 2021 20:10:52 GMT
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Post by jib on Dec 29, 2021 20:11:39 GMT
Danny"I mean, that any of them are good vaccines? Its not as if maybe a dozen different companies havnt been trying to make a better one than their competitors!" The vaccines are working just fine and saving lots of lives - without them we'd be looking at many 100s of deaths a day right now. Just been boosted by Pfizer after a double dose of Astra Zeneca.
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Post by davwel on Dec 29, 2021 20:23:40 GMT
@ jib:
We are very grateful for all the skill and hard work that have gone into producing our CV vaccines. But they are not working quite as well as hoped.
When my wife had her 3rd jab/booster on Oct 6th, the nurse said she would be back "very soon" for a fourth jab/booster. So the problem of declining effectiveness has been known for at least 3 months. Yet we don`t seem to have developed a longer-effective vaccine yet.
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Post by jib on Dec 29, 2021 20:41:53 GMT
davwelI believe we can be sure that the experts are evaluating whether vaccines need to be tweaked to deal with variants. I'm sure boosters are going to be here for a good few years.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 20:52:24 GMT
This is not a fridge comparison forum.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 20:57:20 GMT
Steve "Gage-ing" the success (or otherwise) of a vague policy like "Levelling Up" does require some practical demonstration. As long as the drive concerned was levelled by filling in the potholes, that should surely be counted as success - compared to removing the surface surrounding the potholes, which would be "Levelling Down". I don’t want to be pedantic (I do actually) but what is being described is levelling across.
Levelling UP is where everything is raised. |
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