c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 21:01:35 GMT
Yes, that does look an appealing choice. Similar dimensions to mine, good energy rating, frost free, main difference is yours has the bigger freezer of course, which I would like... I did consider a 50/50 but in the end took a punt on 70/30. Partly because the Samsung has this “Spacemax” tech where the insulation takes up less room so there’s more internal space than usual, and partly because there’s an additional soft freeze compartment in the fridge section. Time will tell if it was the right idea, but I also figured that given I’m increasingly fermenting stuff I’d need a bit more fridge space. (One thing that appealed about the Samsung was it has a good noise rating. Noise is given in decibels, which is on a logarithmic scale, so only a few decibels difference makes quite an impact).
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 21:03:05 GMT
It is now
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 21:10:58 GMT
Hi John No economist that I know of claims it is a law of nature. What they say is that this has been the experience in the past, and it is therefore probable that it will hold in the future. The point is normally raised as a rebuff by pro-free trade economists (which is what most of then tend to be) to concerns that it leads to a loss of jobs or downgrading of opportunities etc. When I was studying IPE in the late '90's to my recollection, in support of arguments for free trade, it was trotted out in text books and lectures with very little caveating and very much come across as an article of faith. At the time if you challenged the logic of free trade you were very much perceived as an illiterate heretic. To be fair, many economist have moderated/shifted their position on free trade and its benefits since then (1990's) I’d still argue that on the whole trade is beneficial, and helps to generate improved productivity in the economy as a whole, which is the main basis for improving living standards. As well as directly providing goods and services of a higher quality more cheaply. But distributional issues need to be actively addressed. . How much of the trade really is beneficial, though. All those sugary products? Disposable clothing? Pharma pushing treatments of symptoms rather than cures? All the environmental impacts? All the planned obsolescence, which it seems might now extend to vaccines lasting only a matter of weeks... Etc.
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Post by turk on Dec 29, 2021 21:12:24 GMT
Graham
Not only are you showing extraordinary male chauvinism re your remarks about Truss “because she’s a woman” people would take her affair in a different way to any man doing the same thing ,but then you go on to stereotype older Tory voters by assuming they wouldn’t vote for a female who had an affair. You obviously know nothing about Conservative voters if you believe that nonsense . In case you hadn’t noticed it this is almost 2022 not 1922 grow up for goodness sake.
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Post by hireton on Dec 29, 2021 21:29:52 GMT
Steve "Gage-ing" the success (or otherwise) of a vague policy like "Levelling Up" does require some practical demonstration. As long as the drive concerned was levelled by filling in the potholes, that should surely be counted as success - compared to removing the surface surrounding the potholes, which would be "Levelling Down". It seems the road in question - which runs across land owned by Lord Gage - is the access to Charleston which is a major cultural destination owned and operated by a charity. So important to the regional/local economy and the grant it seems was awarded by the Local Economic Partnership. So not exactly as Nandy presented it. The important questions are whether the grant was needed, even if it was does Sussex need levelling up and if it does was better access to a cultural attraction a priority? Nandy's attack strikes me as a transitory headline grabber but bordering on fake news relatively easily refuted.
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 29, 2021 21:39:51 GMT
Steve "Gage-ing" the success (or otherwise) of a vague policy like "Levelling Up" does require some practical demonstration. As long as the drive concerned was levelled by filling in the potholes, that should surely be counted as success - compared to removing the surface surrounding the potholes, which would be "Levelling Down". It seems the road in question - which runs across land owned by Lord Gage - is the access to Charleston which is a major cultural destination owned and operated by a charity. So important to the regional/local economy and the grant it seems was awarded by the Local Economic Partnership. So not exactly as Nandy presented it. The important questions are whether the grant was needed, even if it was does Sussex need levelling up and if it does was better access to a cultural attraction a priority? Nandy's attack strikes me as a transitory headline grabber but bordering on fake news relatively easily refuted. Labour are playing on perception in a big way hoping it they throw enough sh*t at the wall some will stick. I'm surprised at Lisa Nandy, she's normally a straight up politician. Following orders?
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 29, 2021 21:52:49 GMT
The shift as you show from your Krugman quotes is nuance rather than fundamental. When I was studying economics there was a branch called welfare economics which pointed out that it was no good talking about general economic advantage without considering distributional effects, and that losers have to be compensated before you can claim benefit from free trade. Of course every individual can’t be compensated - there is no compensation if you had a skill that gave job satisfaction but is now redundant. But most modern economies do at least try and provide some compensation in the form of payment for retraining and generous benefits (not unfortunately the USA, which explains some of its problems).
Yes Krugman still argues that overall free trade is beneficial. In the 90's, key elements of neoliberalist economic thinking had become firmly established as the 'orthodoxy' influencing diction makers, particularly in the UK and US. The influence of neo-Keynesian approaches were not to emerge till a bit later, and Marx's (extremely astute) observations as to the socially disruptive/destructive force of capitalism had no influences, and key policy decisions were made with little practical support for those impacted. Clinton's government was a clear example of this, but the same accusation can be levelled at Brown/Blair and Schroder in Germany. Personally, I think the failure to effectively cushion the blow/share the benefits of globalisation was a key factor in the Labour's decline in VI in its traditional headlands and ultimately the Brexit vote.
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 29, 2021 21:54:51 GMT
This is not a fridge comparison forum. Bit frosty!
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Post by jimjam on Dec 29, 2021 21:54:53 GMT
Colin - no wish to start a prolonged exchange on deficits etc but would suggest that as long as interest payments are rising less than inflation there is not a real problem.
Indeed the principals are falling in real terms as well.
Growth maintaining at 1.5% which might be a reasonable trend figure in the 2020-50 period for developed economies will take care of the extra burden.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 29, 2021 22:02:13 GMT
No matter how the ROC might want to play it down, giving money from the levelling up budget for an aristocrat's drive in Sussex will not play well in the Red Wall where a large proportion of voters think all the funding was to be aimed at them. It also builds on the Tory sleaze meme which will have upset many voters in the north too.
So whilst it might all be above board etc, it still doesn't play well with voters.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 29, 2021 22:07:23 GMT
Yes, that does look an appealing choice. Similar dimensions to mine, good energy rating, frost free, main difference is yours has the bigger freezer of course, which I would like... I did consider a 50/50 but in the end took a punt on 70/30. Partly because the Samsung has this “Spacemax” tech where the insulation takes up less room so there’s more internal space than usual, and partly because there’s an additional soft freeze compartment in the fridge section. Time will tell if it was the right idea, but I also figured that given I’m increasingly fermenting stuff I’d need a bit more fridge space. (One thing that appealed about the Samsung was it has a good noise rating. Noise is given in decibels, which is on a logarithmic scale, so only a few decibels difference makes quite an impact). We are following the principle established by the previous owners of our property and using the integrated larder fridge as a store for fermented products, plus soft drinks. The big 'un holds unfermented items and the turkey carcass still resides within, but has been given notice to quit as per its short hold tenancy agreement.
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Post by guymonde on Dec 29, 2021 22:10:43 GMT
I have checked out the Charleston Trust on the Charity Commission website. It has net assets of £8.3M and recorded a surplus of £782661 in 2020 over expenditure of £1.3M, helped by sundry government grants of about £700k (not including pothole bounty). I can think of far more deserving outfits for largesse, including a couple of which I am a trustee.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 29, 2021 22:23:29 GMT
crofty
Johnson, I believe, prefers freezers.
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Post by jimjam on Dec 29, 2021 22:26:14 GMT
ON - ''Johnson, I believe, prefers freezers''
He has been deFrosted now though.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 22:33:36 GMT
New from YG. Net competency (change from 1Nov)
Boris: -42 (-14) Starmer: -3 (-1)
Also, Boris is viewed as 'weaker' at net -36 (-18); and less 'likeable' at -15 (-15). All the answers are correlated but mildly interesting that he scores higher (less -ve) on likeable v competent. Once we move out of Omicron wave then some of his numbers might improve but the 'Owen Goals', 'Partygate' and broader sleaze will probably cap his upside and in terms of leadership challenge then hopefully merely delays the change of leader (later into 2022 would be much better timing for Rishi, Truss, Hunt or whoever to take over and dump as much of the other baggage on Boris as possible). Rebranding once again might be a tough sell but the later they leave it the less time the new leader will have before GE'24.
See previous comments WRT to what brand Rishi and brand Truss will need to do WRT to improve their 'brand' image with CON MPs and members. As per Starmer some of the 'pledges' to get the top job might be axed post being elected but twas ever thus. Being the party in power then first MPs, second members and third gen.pub in a GE and with a bit of 'shifting' on pledges and policy between each stage.
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Post by hireton on Dec 29, 2021 22:34:52 GMT
I have checked out the Charleston Trust on the Charity Commission website. It has net assets of £8.3M and recorded a surplus of £782661 in 2020 over expenditure of £1.3M, helped by sundry government grants of about £700k (not including pothole bounty). I can think of far more deserving outfits for largesse, including a couple of which I am a trustee. I'm sure that is right. I ran a major UK charitable foundation and I can think of quite a long list of individuals who would chip in a few tens of thousands because of the Bloomsbury connection even if the trust does not have sufficientfunds stored the moment And recalling when I lived in Sussex it had more pressing problems e.g. coastal town decline ( exemplified by Hastings). And I recall reading recently that areas such as Crawley have been hit particularly badly by covid disruption to the travel industry. I think this case illustrates two problems the UK Government has with "levelling up". Firstly, the UK Government has lots of pockets of regeneration and other money and now its successor programmes for former EU funding. So this will quite rightly be distributed widely geographically and sectorally. So it will always be vulnerable to attack that a particular grant is not a levelling up priority. Secondly, the UK Government seems to be compounding this vulnerability by tending to present all it does as "levelling up" in the absence of any definition or focus what the policy means.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 29, 2021 22:35:18 GMT
Even if hidden in a freezer at Windsor, Prince Andrew may be sweating after Ghislaine Maxwell found guilty on all but one count.
IIRC, US Federal prosecutors are quite prepared to persuade the judge as to sentencing, if the guilty party is willing to nail others.
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Post by davwel on Dec 29, 2021 22:35:40 GMT
Someone has been working late in a Scot Gov office, since my wife has just received a text message telling her to ask for a PCR test immediately should she suspect any symptoms of Covid. And because she is in the highest-risk category, she will have high priority in booking.
There`s nothing in the message about getting the fourth jab, but that will be a local matter, we believe. The lass is reassured that at least she is still on the list.
And it`s a boost at this worrying time, when the BBC London broadcasters could be interpreted as hindering SG advice, by playing English nightclub owners encouraging Scots to cross the border for New Year`s Eve hospitality.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 29, 2021 22:42:43 GMT
steve - "Alec . The number in hospital hasn't grown by a thousand a day over the last four days..." Wrong. Covid cases in English hospitals: 26th 7,536 +370 27th 8,474 +938 28th 9,546 +1,072 29th 10,462+916 Again we have to consider whats causing these cases. There are different sorts, which almost certainly will not scale the same. Lets imagine for a moment that omicron causes no serious cases whatever. But its prevalence has doubled. There wouldnt be any people admitted because they were seriously ill with covid. But there would be twice as many people admitted for other things who just happened to have covid as well. Your numbers are not distinguishing whether these are trivial cases or serious ones.
Also had a look at John campbell's utube analysis for today. He advises that of some 8,200 people in hospital with covid on 29 December, only 766 of them had omicron variant. So if theres a surge in covid hospitalisations, it isnt omicron.
He also reports that as of 21 december, only 20% of people in hospital with omicron had been admitted because of symptoms of the disease, and the rest for some other reason. He compares this to SA, where they reckoned 70% of omicron admissions were there for some other reason. All in all, he is arguing the proportions of incidental and serious cases have entirely switched around between delta and omicron, such that delta is only creating 1/4 the proportion of serious cases. On top of this people are staying in hospital for shorter times.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 22:42:57 GMT
Just to the debate on free market economy and whether we have some shifts.
There are two ways to address this: on the basis of principles. In this case, no there is still no change, it is effectively the 1870-1920s economics (so much so that economics students demand teaching of Keynesian economics, which is the same stuff - he was actually a monetarist).
The second way - there are incremental changes . it is good, but even so, the principle of the same economic theory, just different narratives.
Anyway, the dominant economic theory of today doesn't have a macroeconomic theory, just a mere aggregation of the microeconomics. Keynesianism won't help as it doesn't have microeconomics, and there is no way to break it down to firm-level behaviour.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 22:43:20 GMT
Yes, that does look an appealing choice. Similar dimensions to mine, good energy rating, frost free, main difference is yours has the bigger freezer of course, which I would like... I did consider a 50/50 but in the end took a punt on 70/30. Partly because the Samsung has this “Spacemax” tech where the insulation takes up less room so there’s more internal space than usual, and partly because there’s an additional soft freeze compartment in the fridge section. Time will tell if it was the right idea, but I also figured that given I’m increasingly fermenting stuff I’d need a bit more fridge space. (One thing that appealed about the Samsung was it has a good noise rating. Noise is given in decibels, which is on a logarithmic scale, so only a few decibels difference makes quite an impact). We are following the principle established by the previous owners of our property and using the integrated larder fridge as a store for fermented products, plus soft drinks. The big 'un holds unfermented items and the turkey carcass still resides within, but has been given notice to quit as per its short hold tenancy agreement. That sounds a very sensible arrangement. I am insufficiently equipped in the larder department and so have to resort to other means. (Plus, polling reference: Samsung fridges are good for VI. Allegedly).
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Post by jib on Dec 29, 2021 22:43:51 GMT
steamdrivenandy"No matter how the ROC might want to play it down, giving money from the levelling up budget for an aristocrat's drive in Sussex will not play well in the Red Wall where a large proportion of voters think all the funding was to be aimed at them. It also builds on the Tory sleaze meme which will have upset many voters in the north too. So whilst it might all be above board etc, it still doesn't play well with voters." Duck House Mk 2. Labour really, really need to put the boot in on this rotten Government.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 29, 2021 22:43:57 GMT
Danny "I mean, that any of them are good vaccines? Its not as if maybe a dozen different companies havnt been trying to make a better one than their competitors!" The vaccines are working just fine and saving lots of lives - without them we'd be looking at many 100s of deaths a day right now. Just been boosted by Pfizer after a double dose of Astra Zeneca. Funny how South africa has done rather well by only vaccinating 30% of the population with only two doses. I wonder if they would have managed nearly as well with just one dose? That is what we were told last Jan. A tiny fraction of the doses given here, producing most of the benefit.
No vaccine is working well if other measures have to be introduced as well.
have a look at the john campbell utube video today. he presents data from icnarc, which collects information form UK intensive care bed occupancy. They confirm the great majority of people with covid who end up in intensive care are unvaccinated, but they also confirm one dose of vaccine is just as protective in this respect as two. One really is enough in this context.
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Post by jimjam on Dec 29, 2021 22:45:00 GMT
Central Office (or their spokesperson on this site) seem to think that Starmer is only slightly less less well-regarded than Johnson (I enjoyed the double like).
Really?
New from YG. Net competency (change from 1Nov)
Boris: -42 (-14) Starmer: -3 (-1)
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 29, 2021 22:45:10 GMT
I know I'm aged but when did nightclubs become such a major governmental concern? Back in the days when I might've had even a vague interest in such things they were basically the hang outs for ne'er do wells and places for most folk to steer well clear of. It seems that suddenly they're a major industry worth cossetting and risking folks life over.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 29, 2021 22:52:16 GMT
We are following the principle established by the previous owners of our property and using the integrated larder fridge as a store for fermented products, plus soft drinks. The big 'un holds unfermented items and the turkey carcass still resides within, but has been given notice to quit as per its short hold tenancy agreement. That sounds a very sensible arrangement. I am insufficiently equipped in the larder department and so have to resort to other means. (Plus, Samsung fridges are good for VI. Allegedly). I'm sticking with EU produced products, where possible and Miele fridges are tested to last 20 years. Samsung may be good for VI but not so good for the environment given the sea haulage from Korea.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 29, 2021 22:54:58 GMT
Alec As we don't have the figures for the last two days why do you assume you will be right.
Nice of you to totally ignore the 35% fall of covid deaths in the UK in the last seven days. If a surge produces less serious outcomes it's good news.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 22:55:44 GMT
Also from YG. LAB have narrowed the gap but still 10pts behind CON on 'economy' (which is usually #2 in most important issues [1]). Possibly a 'framing' issue in the wording given CON/LAB come before leader name? Also note most of the move has been from CON to neither (which is likely similar to the move in VI from CON'19 to DK). LAB numbers fairly steady. [1] Last update 26Dec: yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/the-most-important-issues-facing-the-country
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Post by hireton on Dec 29, 2021 22:57:16 GMT
steamdrivenandy"No matter how the ROC might want to play it down, giving money from the levelling up budget for an aristocrat's drive in Sussex will not play well in the Red Wall where a large proportion of voters think all the funding was to be aimed at them. It also builds on the Tory sleaze meme which will have upset many voters in the north too. So whilst it might all be above board etc, it still doesn't play well with voters." Duck House Mk 2. Labour really, really need to put the boot in on this rotten Government. It's not an aristocrat's driveway ( it's an access road to a museum and cultural venue) but reaction on here shows how fake news sticks quickly.
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Post by alec on Dec 29, 2021 22:57:27 GMT
@davwell - your comment on vaccine efficacy and fourth boosters brought to mind an odd discovery I made today. I found my way to the Intensive Care NationalAudit & Research Centre (ICNARC) website and their recent covid data. [See www.icnarc.org/our-audit/audits/cmp/reports downloads to the right of the page]. Chart 26 on their latest report (England only) showed rates of admission to intensive care (1st May 2021 - 15th Nov 2021) with covid by vaccination status, and showed the expected overwhelming bias toward unvaccinated patients. However, unusually this chart split the vaccinated cohorts into single and double jabbed, which were both low and remarkably similar. From the chart as published, it looked like the single jabbed were slightly less likely to be admitted, but the lines were so close I couldn't tell. So I checked the spreadsheet data released by the ICNARC and this had the admission rates per 100,000 for double and single jabbed and unvaccinated. Across all age groups the single jabbed were less likely to require intensive care over the period than double jabbed, with the 18 - 29 cohort at 56% of the double jabbed rate, rising to just over 60% between 50 and 70 and 80% for the over 70s. It should be said that all the rates for double/single jabbed were very low - most were less than 0.5 admissions per 100,000 per week for both categories, and the rates for the unvaccinated were far higher - between 15 and 90 times higher. But there is a consistent signal across all age cohorts that you are statistically less likely to have required intensive care treatment for covid if you had only received a single jab as opposed to full vaccination. For various reasons this is personally reassuring to me, to an extent, but I am genuinely puzzled as to why this is. It may be a statistical anomaly, although if it were, it seems remarkably consistent across the age ranges over an extended data period. It could be behavioural, perhaps with the single jabbed being more cautious than the double jabbed, but it's a set of numbers I can't really explain.
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