Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 16:22:03 GMT
I'll firstly qualify my answer by saying my post above is not necessarily completely what I believe, more a narrative I've picked up having moved back to Wales post retirement. Whatever.. |
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 29, 2021 16:30:09 GMT
There is a current debate in the USA about the decline of the middle class. People are finding that they cannot make ends meet while attempting to live a middle class life. I have to confess that, in a highly materialistic society like the USA, this impoverishment of the middle class is an illusion - there are far more rich Americans now than there have ever been. The reason that the size of the American middle class has declined is because the rich class has increased - in many ways the middle class of the 1960-1990 period has now become the new wealthy class. Interesting perspective in the light of something have cited before: the idea of an overpopulated elite, popularised by Turchin. “labour oversupply leads to falling living standards and elite overproduction, and those, in turn, cause a wave of prolonged and intense sociopolitical instability.” basically as living standards erode due to too much labour, this percolates into the middle class, and you wind up with basically two classes: the elites, doing well, and the rest, struggling. As a consequence, there is a lot of competition to get into the elite which becomes overloaded and causes problems as a result. It’s argued this has already happened in China, hence the increasing competition over private tuition and degrees overseas, the amount of investment in offspring etc. It’s founded in data science which might have an appeal to the board; here’s Turchin’s analysis of Trump and Biden - www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/17/were-on-the-verge-of-breakdown-a-data-scientists-take-on-trump-and-bidenIndeed we are increasingly heading to a two-tier class system: the well off (the rich and also the upper-middle class) and everyone else. In the old days the lower middle class bank clerk, shop manager, bookkeeper, low to mid grade civil servant etc could enjoy a good, safe working life and in many cases a final salary pension at 60 as a reward. Now this dream has exploded - the safe 'jobs for life' have disappeared and the demand for these types of jobs has fallen, while demand for high skill and professional jobs has soared. |
|
|
|
Post by Mark on Dec 29, 2021 16:31:20 GMT
which raises the question, is there more in store? I do find myself wondering to what extent it is the middle classes’ turn to experience what the working classes experienced. That having reduced the power of the working class, it’s now the middle classes turn to experience the ravages of globalism and capital etc. I think many of what you describe as the middle classes will suffer this time, like never before - or certainly not in our lifetimes. I say this because inflation is, at leastin part, topsy-turvy compared to what has gone before - and I think pretty much all commentators have missed this. To explain what I mean by that, I will recall a blazing row between my aunt and uncle that I was witness to as a kid. For reference, they would fit nicely into what many people would consider to be middle class. Nice house in the suburbs, husband with a reasonably paid job, not usually given to wonder how the next treat/holiday would be paid for. But, it was the early 80's, recession, and not that long after the inflation of the 70's. Yes, they could manage ok, but, even they had to tighten their belts. The row erupted when my uncle brought home a video tape (we're talking VHS here). I think it was "ET", certinly one of the blockbusters at the time. My aunt was less than impressed. "That's half a week's food you've thrown away", I remember her saying (screaming would be more accurate). Fast forward to today, food prices are going through the roof, energy bills....well, eyewatering isn't the word. Petrol the same - and bus fares....and god knows what will happen to prices if Putin turns the tap off. Basically, the very things that people HAVE to spend money on. Yet, in other parts of the economy, there is actually DEFLATION. You can buy top selling CDs and DVDs on Amazon for - literally - a penny. Tech of all kinds, unless you want the very latest, has plummeted in price. Today's equivalent of my aunt screaming at my uncle 'that's a can of baked beans you've squandered' doesn't have the same punch. The upshot of all this is that the poorest will REALLY struggle, like not seen since WW2, but, even some of the middle classes that got by in previous hard times will struggle bigtime - people that are not used to doing so and certinly don't expect to. Those above a certain income, given likely forthcoming wage inflation, that have money over after essentials, may actually, in real terms, be better off. |
|
|
|
Post by turk on Dec 29, 2021 16:34:42 GMT
Colin
Sorry about the time delay in answering re will people vote for Truss. That’s a unknown quantity until any leader has time to be seen and heard as leader and how they manage things like PMQ’s and come across in the media it’s impossible to say how people will vote.
I think she will go down well with traditional Tory voters as she is what they might regard as a Conservative in the traditional sense low tax, small government something Johnson hasn’t been able to embrace mainly because of the pandemic and it’s frightening cost to the treasury. As I said she is a competent experienced politician who prepares well when answering questions again something Johnson sadly lacks.
She is fairly popular with grass root conservatives and would receive a fair number of votes from the membership ,it would be between her and Sunak . Hunt as far as I can tell is not that popular he is in that awkward squad who has spent much of his time since losing his job trying to interfere with current Tory policy in the NHS which hasn’t endeared him to the Tory membership.
Having said all that I certainly wouldn’t dismiss an relative unknown coming forward a new broom sort of thing but I wouldn’t be to certain that it won’t still be Johnson leading the charge in the next GE . As always in politics the role of PM is dependent on how they are seen to have managed various different situations at the moment he is out of favour with the public how long that will last remains to be seen.
Fortunately for Johnson his opposite number is almost as unpopular as him and the move to Labour is more of a protest vote rather than based on Labour policies. Personally I think if he is lucky the political gods may be realigning for Johnson but as always with him it will be more by luck than judgement. It may well be that if he is seen to be right to hold back on restrictions and the booster program continues to be a successful and of course Omicron is infact much less deadly than Delta then the public mood may well change in his favour.
In any case at the moment there is little appetite for a leadership battle within the party I would think it’s more likely that any change would happen in 2023 rather than this coming year but nobody has a Cristal ball when it comes to politics so it’s very much watch this space.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 16:36:50 GMT
Charles from your reply to Colin, ''From what you say, it is pretty clear that from an economic point of view taxes need to go up'' I don't expect Colin to agree with me but why can't borrowing increase in the next 2 years or so beyond the current plans? I would not want Austerity#2; and Labour need to be more assertive this time imo. One does not have support MMT to think that we should not be cutting demand as we enter a downturn. I would like to see Treasury rules changed to make most Education spending investment rather than current; this should see rules holding over the cycle. While I understand your point and the desire to avoided a new austerity programme, I still think that we need to give the opportunity to the economy to write off asset value. They haven't had it for almost a decade. The recession was coming but Covid postponed it (technically the drop in the GDP is a recession, but it is not in reality, in terms of mechanisms). The point about the education spending fascinates me. Just before Covid I was asked to help in Wales about educational spending advice. So I created a fairly straightforward model that could cope with very different kinds of demographic inputs (both pupils and staff). It was fascinating because I had the same opinion as the one you expressed, but the model showed the emergence of overcapacity due to investment and under capacity due to current expenditure. So, I created a new model in which no differentiation is made as it used no money but space, number of pupils and number to staff (also procurement, but there was an error in the model about that which I didn't spot). The outcome/recommendation was high level of decentralisation, no assignment of monetary/fiscal limit, only a predetermined set of services provided. It was actually approved at the highest level. Then the recommendation was a quite serious reorganisation of departmental control and reporting. It was rejected. So the first recommendation didn't work either. Maybe in the future... [ Added: in the Welsh government there are some very change driven people and even teams. At the moment they don't have the power or influence, so frustration is high, but compared to, let's say, Merseyside, it is promising.] |
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 29, 2021 16:36:50 GMT
There is something called 'unconscious bias' in the way we treat colleagues and consider people for promotion etc. There is a natural human tendency to favour people who are like us, speak like us, look like us and have similar habits and interests as us - it's just human nature. Many corporate giants have introduced training to combat unconscious bias and this is helping to mitigate this tendency, though it's hard to completely eradicate. The problem is that the management structure in many organisations operates in a cliquey environment - those who are in the 'in crowd' will always do better than those who lie outside of it, no matter how good they are at their jobs. In many ways getting on depends on who you know instead of what you know. I don't think that this is as big an issue in IT as it is in other industries - many senior managers in IT come from offshore backgrounds these days. I would think that in older, more traditional professions, such as law, this is more of an issue. I would agree that there can be unconscious bias, indeed I’ve given examples before, of research into how people unconsciously tend to see foreign people more as objects, and prefer friends who are genetically more similar to them, but there is also the question of a more conscious bias. Where keeping immigrants from rising up the ladder might not always be so unconscious. There are laws against race discrimination at work. I don't think that this discrimination problem is as endemic as you imply, but I do think that the unconscious bias factor is often a blocker to foreign workers in certain organisations. What I do find is that there is a growing tendency to discriminate against older people, particularly older white men aged 50 or above, who don't tick enough of the 'positive discrimination' boxes. In recent years I went to a few interviews where I was a very strong candidate yet mysteriously did not get shortlisted for final interview, and the reasons given were very woolly indeed. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 16:43:10 GMT
To sweeten the pill of a WT then HMG could (and IMO should) also approve more production (eg Jackdaw field) - some 'quid pro quo' and a Win/Win IMO. We'll continue to need N.Sea O+G to 'bridge' to Net Zero and the risks on production and drop in future demand would not be a taxpayer risk. IMO it is absurd we don't tap more nat.gas in N.Sea but instead import it from Norway's taps into the same sea (for whom we then compete on price with rEurope) and import a load of LNG from Qatar. More discussion on approving other projects would be for the specific issue thread but medium-long term we need to produce more energy in UK and we have the ability to do so. On Rishi's problem then IMO he'll have to shake the magic money tree a bit more, but just call it straight debt. I'm not keen on VAT cut for energy bills but it is certainly a bad look for HMT to profit from the rise in bills and agree any complex means tested approach would be 'complex' so a simples 'freeze' probably makes sense (a permanent one is RUK's policy and would be 'climate delayist'). Austerity is political suicide but permanent tax rises can be deferred for a while (possibly past GE'24?) via selective use of WTs (and I'd look again at internet companies such as Amazon+co who have profited from Covid) BoE? Tricky one for them. Higher energy bills cut demand = stagflationary. If that looks like permanent inflation and they see 2nd round effects then they should hike in Feb (which causes an additional problem for Rishi in higher interest payments on debt). If they decide it looks temporary and risks causing a slump they might 'wait and see'. A while before they have to decide and they easily adjust their assumptions for whatever they decide to do (and I expect the process of decision making will be 'reversed' to back fit the necessary assumptions to ensure inflation magically hits target at the end of their forecast) |
|
|
|
Post by charles on Dec 29, 2021 16:50:36 GMT
@jim Jam, Thanks for commwnring on my post to Colin. The question of how Labour should pay for its programme is one in which I am very interested and about which I am peculiaarly unqualified to pronounce. My impression is that you are right, austerity failed, and we don't want to choke off the recovry by raising taxes. Conservatives certainly seem able to get away with massive state spending, partly because everyone else seems to be in the same boat, and partly because everyone believes that they are anti=state spending and therefore we will not be going down the road of Venszuala. Labour probably have more difficulty with this since people are very liable to think they are financially incompetent. But it may well be that you are right and this is the way to go.
|
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 29, 2021 16:55:21 GMT
@jim Jam, Thanks for commwnring on my post to Colin. The question of how Labour should pay for its programme is one in which I am very interested and about which I am peculiaarly unqualified to pronounce. My impression is that you are right, austerity failed, and we don't want to choke off the recovry by raising taxes. Conservatives certainly seem able to get away with massive state spending, partly because everyone else seems to be in the same boat, and partly because everyone believes that they are anti=state spending and therefore we will not be going down the road of Venszuala. Labour probably have more difficulty with this since people are very liable to think they are financially incompetent. But it may well be that you are right and this is the way to go. Whoever is in power I definitely believe that we are heading towards a 20% main band NIC rate. The alternative would be to have a flat rate 40% rate of income tax with a higher (say £15k) personal allowance, but there is no way that this would be politically acceptable. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 16:55:53 GMT
I would agree that there can be unconscious bias, indeed I’ve given examples before, of research into how people unconsciously tend to see foreign people more as objects, and prefer friends who are genetically more similar to them, but there is also the question of a more conscious bias. Where keeping immigrants from rising up the ladder might not always be so unconscious. There are laws against race discrimination at work. I don't think that this discrimination problem is as endemic as you imply, but I do think that the unconscious bias factor is often a blocker to foreign workers in certain organisations. What I do find is that there is a growing tendency to discriminate against older people, particularly older white men aged 50 or above, who don't tick enough of the 'positive discrimination' boxes. In recent years I went to a few interviews where I was a very strong candidate yet mysteriously did not get shortlisted for final interview, and the reasons given were very woolly indeed. Yes, that’s part of how it happens. They just get to “decide”, on the basis of criteria selected such that they can be bent to suit their will. Even if they can’t do that, then they create a new job to suit who they want. There are laws on equal pay too. How many think they are never gamed? Then there were also hundreds of protected qualifications in the EU. (Pre-EU, my mum couldn’t use her quals when she came here from abroad). Look at how many make it up the ladder. Or don’t. Consider the point about second generation prospects etc. (It can start in school, where teachers might try and keep foreign people out of the top sets despite their performance in exams). my partner did not have a queue of East Europeans vying for the same job when she went for her headship. How many do? The exploitation of immigrants is not a new thing and there is no particular reason we eradicated the exploitation of immigrants from our entire middle class. |
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Dec 29, 2021 17:01:40 GMT
which raises the question, is there more in store? I do find myself wondering to what extent it is the middle classes’ turn to experience what the working classes experienced. That having reduced the power of the working class, it’s now the middle classes turn to experience the ravages of globalism and capital etc. They might have been ok with it when gaining from house prices hikes and CGT cuts, with careers to some extent protected from the kind of competition experienced by the working classes. But gradually, is it coming for the middle classes too? Hearing the chants of Lecturers demonstrating nearby because of the casualisation of the workforce. Over the years I’ve seen several domains haemorrhage jobs, in music education and the arts. Now one wonders as to the future of HE if students begin to ditch degrees for apprenticeships, and it becomes easier for a few people to deliver content online to so many. All those jobs in marketing, accounts, Human Resources etc... how many will survive, or be increasingly undercut by foreign competition? And prices of essentials rising to the point even more of the middle class feel it? Hi - I'd say it very much arrived already and has been evident for some time in both the UK and US with the off-shoring of mc jobs in sectors such as finance, HR admin and IT etc. It was undoubtedly a factor in Trump's rise and why the blue areas of England and Wales swung behind Brexit. I have always thought the usual economist's assertion/argument that the economy on the future will create new types of jobs that will compensate for those lost, as more an article of faith than a law of nature.
No economist that I know of claims it is a law of nature. What they say is that this has been the experience in the past, and it is therefore probable that it will hold in the future. But often new things happen. Proper economists are usually much more tentative than politicians and journalists claim. It’s the old issue of simplification and binary thinking, plus jounalists always emphasising the worst case (and politicians usually the best case). It’s like models - you produce a range of results depending on variation in the inputs. But you’d never know it from the way journalists treat the worst case as a prediction. |
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Dec 29, 2021 17:06:34 GMT
tancred "You cannot cut this demand without returning to living in the 19th century." I wonder if anyone has done a comparison (maybe Alec knows?) of the domestic energy consumption per head of those living in the 19th century was compared with those nowadays in similar sized houses. This 19th century house had no roof insulation or central heating when it was built (or when we moved in!) - heating was provided by 6 coal fires a coal fired kitchen range and a coal fired boiler in the wash house. Most of the heat generated probably went straight up the chimney and was wasted. See Vaclav Smil - Energy and Civilization. He deals at length with the issue of how much energy is generated and used, and how this relates to living standards, in historical context. |
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Dec 29, 2021 17:15:02 GMT
Hi - I'd say it very much arrived already and has been evident for some time in both the UK and US with the off-shoring of mc jobs in sectors such as finance, HR admin and IT etc. It was undoubtedly a factor in Trump's rise and why the blue areas of England and Wales swung behind Brexit. I have always thought the usual economist's assertion/argument that the economy on the future will create new types of jobs that will compensate for those lost, as more an article of faith than a law of nature. There is a current debate in the USA about the decline of the middle class. People are finding that they cannot make ends meet while attempting to live a middle class life. I have to confess that, in a highly materialistic society like the USA, this impoverishment of the middle class is an illusion - there are far more rich Americans now than there have ever been. The reason that the size of the American middle class has declined is because the rich class has increased - in many ways the middle class of the 1960-1990 period has now become the new wealthy class. Offshoring is one thing that has been hitting the middle class in both American and western Europe, but not just that - immigration has been a factor too. When I started my IT career in the early '90s anyone who could press a button on a keyboard could get a job. Nowadays there is intense competition for every job and we have seen a multitude of highly skilled immigrants, mainly from India, come here to get jobs that would otherwise have gone to native people. So, the middle class in the UK has experienced the same pain from immigrant competition that the working class has felt with regard to east Europeans taking jobs in bricklaying, plumbing etc. The difference is that the middle class has largely accepted this immigrant competition with resignation and pragmatism instead of taking to the streets demanding an end to Indian immigration or whatever. I guess this is because middle class workers tend not to be unionised and are used to risk much more than working class workers, who expect security in a job as a high priority. No, the concept of middle class is very different in the USA from here. It refers to people like car workers, steel workers, miners, farmers - what we would call the skilled working class. The US has seen an increase in already high inequality, and a decrease in social mobility, as a result of the disappearance of this type of job (offshoring and outsourcing yes, but also changes in economic structure). So the statement that the middle class of the 1960-90 period has become the new wealthy class is flat out wrong. Immigration certainly can increase competition for jobs, but it will also increase the number of jobs, as the immigrants consume goods, require services etc. And in the generality their tax payments outweigh the costs, and insofar as they are “better” workers, output becomes cheaper for everyone. Of course there are always individuals who lose out, and they tend to be concentrated in certain sectors. |
|
|
|
Post by graham on Dec 29, 2021 17:16:17 GMT
Colin Sorry about the time delay in answering re will people vote for Truss. That’s a unknown quantity until any leader has time to be seen and heard as leader and how they manage things like PMQ’s and come across in the media it’s impossible to say how people will vote. I think she will go down well with traditional Tory voters as she is what they might regard as a Conservative in the traditional sense low tax, small government something Johnson hasn’t been able to embrace mainly because of the pandemic and it’s frightening cost to the treasury. As I said she is a competent experienced politician who prepares well when answering questions again something Johnson sadly lacks. She is fairly popular with grass root conservatives and would receive a fair number of votes from the membership ,it would be between her and Sunak . Hunt as far as I can tell is not that popular he is in that awkward squad who has spent much of his time since losing his job trying to interfere with current Tory policy in the NHS which hasn’t endeared him to the Tory membership. Having said all that I certainly wouldn’t dismiss an relative unknown coming forward a new broom sort of thing but I wouldn’t be to certain that it won’t still be Johnson leading the charge in the next GE . As always in politics the role of PM is dependent on how they are seen to have managed various different situations at the moment he is out of favour with the public how long that will last remains to be seen. Fortunately for Johnson his opposite number is almost as unpopular as him and the move to Labour is more of a protest vote rather than based on Labour policies. Personally I think if he is lucky the political gods may be realigning for Johnson but as always with him it will be more by luck than judgement. It may well be that if he is seen to be right to hold back on restrictions and the booster program continues to be a successful and of course Omicron is infact much less deadly than Delta then the public mood may well change in his favour. In any case at the moment there is little appetite for a leadership battle within the party I would think it’s more likely that any change would happen in 2023 rather than this coming year but nobody has a Cristal ball when it comes to politics so it’s very much watch this space. It will be interesting to see the effect on the standing of Truss with the Tory membership when reminded - as they will be - of the infidelities relating to her personal life. I seriously doubt that Thatcher or Theresa May would have succeeded to the leadership had stories relating to past 'affairs' with married Tory MPs been floating about. Of course Labour is currently benefitting from a protest vote , but that is how changes of government tend to come about.It was why Wilson lost to Heath in 1970 and Callaghan to Thatcher in 1979. Voters turn against the status quo at some point - rather than vote enthusiastically for an alternative. It would be a sense of 'This lot have failed and appear incompetent'. That also explains Cameron ousting of Brown in 2010. I don't see Johnson's authority as being recoverable now. The more insightful voters have always known him to be unsuitable for his role, but now many who found him amusing and vaguely authentic have seen his hypocrisy and corruption for what it is. No way back from that when so many now feel hoodwinked and betrayed.
|
|
|
|
Post by alec on Dec 29, 2021 17:33:52 GMT
hireton and @davwell - this isn't the first time that Johnson took aim at Scottish covid policy in an attempt to play the libertarian card. Each time he has tried this, subsequent numbers just made him look foolish and leaden footed. Will history repeat itself? English hospital admissions jumpted by c 400 in the latest data (to the 27th), an increase of 27% in 24 hours and 65% on the previous week. One also for @tw to note - London admissions up by 17% on the previous day and now well above 400, so no signs of a plateau there. We are now seeing the acceleration in the English figures, and I remain uncertain whether the call for inaction for New Year will appear so good in hindsight.
|
|
|
|
Post by alec on Dec 29, 2021 17:37:37 GMT
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,638
|
Post by steve on Dec 29, 2021 17:41:35 GMT
Crofty
Close
It's luton town centre.
|
|
|
|
Post by alec on Dec 29, 2021 17:43:00 GMT
Further update on the English hospital figures: 7 day admissions totals up 52% on the week, although the total covid bed numbers are rising more modestly, up 16.5% on the 7 day average, although currently growing by 1000 per day over the last 4 days.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,638
|
Post by steve on Dec 29, 2021 17:44:07 GMT
Bardin
Very nice I always think Streatham high road looks at its best in the fog .
|
|
|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 29, 2021 17:48:55 GMT
Hi John
No economist that I know of claims it is a law of nature. What they say is that this has been the experience in the past, and it is therefore probable that it will hold in the future.
The point is normally raised as a rebuff by pro-free trade economists (which is what most of then tend to be) to concerns that it leads to a loss of jobs or downgrading of opportunities etc. When I was studying IPE in the late '90's to my recollection, in support of arguments for free trade, it was trotted out in text books and lectures with very little caveating and very much come across as an article of faith. At the time if you challenged the logic of free trade you were very much perceived as an illiterate heretic.
To be fair, many economist have moderated/shifted their position on free trade and its benefits since then (1990's):
Krugman, in 2016:
But it’s also true that much of the elite defense of globalization is basically dishonest: false claims of inevitability, scare tactics (protectionism causes depressions!), vastly exaggerated claims for the benefits of trade liberalization and the costs of protection, hand-waving away the large distributional effects that are what standard models actually predict. I hope, by the way, that I haven’t done any of that; I think I’ve always been clear that the gains from globalization aren’t all that (here’s a back-of-the-envelope on the gains from hyperglobalization — only part of which can be attributed to policy — that is less than 5 percent of world GDP over a generation); and I think I’ve never assumed away the income distribution effects.
Krugman, in 1997:
But even if the global economy matters less than the sweeping assertions would have us believe, does this ”globaloney,” as the cognoscenti call it, do any real harm? Yes, in part because the public, misguided into believing that international trade is the source of all our problems, might turn protectionist — undermining the real good that globalization has done for most people here and abroad.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,638
|
Post by steve on Dec 29, 2021 17:54:04 GMT
Alec .
The number in hospital hasn't grown by a thousand a day over the last four days, it did however grow by around that number in the last 24 hours.
The number on ventilators is virtually unchanged from a week ago.
Compared to the peak last January the number in hospital is currently under a third and the number on ventilators is less than 18%.
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 17:55:39 GMT
which raises the question, is there more in store? I do find myself wondering to what extent it is the middle classes’ turn to experience what the working classes experienced. That having reduced the power of the working class, it’s now the middle classes turn to experience the ravages of globalism and capital etc. Fast forward to today, food prices are going through the roof, energy bills....well, eyewatering isn't the word. Petrol the same - and bus fares....and god knows what will happen to prices if Putin turns the tap off. Basically, the very things that people HAVE to spend money on. Yet, in other parts of the economy, there is actually DEFLATION. You can buy top selling CDs and DVDs on Amazon for - literally - a penny. Tech of all kinds, unless you want the very latest, has plummeted in price. Today's equivalent of my aunt screaming at my uncle 'that's a can of baked beans you've squandered' doesn't have the same punch. The upshot of all this is that the poorest will REALLY struggle, like not seen since WW2, but, even some of the middle classes that got by in previous hard times will struggle bigtime - people that are not used to doing so and certinly don't expect to. Those above a certain income, given likely forthcoming wage inflation, that have money over after essentials, may actually, in real terms, be better off. Yes, very salient point. There is a strange dynamic equilibrium where essentials go up in price but things like tech keep falling. So you might wind up with less disposable, but can still buy more with it. But once you reach the point where the disposable has all been eroded, then you can’t so easily leverage the tech. (Or indeed a range of services that might be considered non-essential hence have to be priced more keenly). (On the plus side, you can at times use the tech to earn more, or to cut costs to give you more disposable again). |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,638
|
Post by steve on Dec 29, 2021 18:10:31 GMT
Given that most people seriously ill in hospital with covid probably have the delta variant the fact that omicron now accounts for nearly all community transmission and is less severe should be apparent over the next couple of weeks.
The death rate from covid continues to fall.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 18:17:26 GMT
Crofty Close It's luton town centre. Luton is lovely, it lies by a lake. Fallen leaves from lush Linden trees left scattered.... Oh soddit, that’ll do |
|
|
|
Post by hireton on Dec 29, 2021 18:19:20 GMT
Well, who is doing the 'granting' is of course the Crown, and HM Government acting on behalf of the Crown. Simple. These are the constitutional rules under which we live in this country. The Scottish people decided in 2014 that they are better off inside the UK and I have no doubt that they will continue to hold this view in the future, but, given that a large minority want independence, my opinion is that a devolution-max option should also be put to the Scottish people as another alternative. You need to read up on the UK constitution. |
|
|
|
Post by alec on Dec 29, 2021 18:19:41 GMT
steve - "Alec . The number in hospital hasn't grown by a thousand a day over the last four days..." Wrong. Covid cases in English hospitals: 26th 7,536 +370 27th 8,474 +938 28th 9,546 +1,072 29th 10,462+916 I will accept an apology if you care to make one, but I never demand one. Just because the English media has been asleep over Christmas doesn't mean news doesn't happen.
|
|
|
|
Post by somerjohn on Dec 29, 2021 18:20:00 GMT
Colin:
Last October FT reported that Sanchez "backtracked "on a proposed excess profits levy on electricity companies. Is that still the position ?I've seen nothing on this since, so I'd guess the proposal has been dropped, at least for the time being. On my fruitless hunt for the information you requested, I found more accurate information on the price mitigation measures in Spain. The first thing to say is that the taxes and charges on electricity were very high, totalling around 50% of consumer bills. If you scroll through this article till you get to the graphic, you'll see what I mean (in Spanish, but the graphics are self-explanatory) elpais.com/economia/2021-12-27/asi-son-los-calculos-de-sanchez-para-cumplir-el-compromiso-sobre-el-recibo-de-la-luz.html#?rel=masThe taxes ('impuestos') include VAT, reduced from 21% to 10% (not zero as I'd said), special electricity tax reduced from 5.11% to 0.5%, and tax on generation reduced from 7% to zero. In all, a 60% reduction in tax, according to El País. Originally this was till the end of the year, but now extended to March/April. The charges ('cargos'), including a renewables levy and 'costes extrapeninsulares' which literally means costs from outside Spain, but your guess is as good as mine, have been reduced by 96%. There's also been an upgrade in social payments. So, all in all, a pretty massive package which has enabled Sánchez to claim bills will be no higher this year than in 2018 (though a bit of sleight of hand there as the 2021 figure is for the whole year, including lower costs at the beginning). It shows, I think, what's possible when the will is there. At a minimum, I think Sunak could reduce VAT on energy bills from 5% to 2%, or whatever the figure needed to eliminate the windfall extra tax revenue from higher prices. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 18:29:46 GMT
steve - "Alec . The number in hospital hasn't grown by a thousand a day over the last four days..." Wrong. Covid cases in English hospitals: 26th 7,536 +370 27th 8,474 +938 28th 9,546 +1,072 29th 10,462+916 That looks like a lot - but how does it equate to a thousand a day? Paul Croft/Sums Monitor. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 18:30:29 GMT
Charles from your reply to Colin, ''From what you say, it is pretty clear that from an economic point of view taxes need to go up'' I don't expect Colin to agree with me but why can't borrowing increase in the next 2 years or so beyond the current plans? I would not want Austerity#2; and Labour need to be more assertive this time imo. One does not have support MMT to think that we should not be cutting demand as we enter a downturn. I would like to see Treasury rules changed to make most Education spending investment rather than current; this should see rules holding over the cycle. You can tag things as investment so you borrow more if you like. So long as you remember this is not like the last 15 years, when you didnt have to worry about interest rates. All borrowers will have to start thinking about them now. When they go up you either cut expenditure somewhere else , raise taxes-or borrow to pay the interest bill. And that isnt sustainable. But Sunak knows that. capital - |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,638
|
Post by steve on Dec 29, 2021 18:33:08 GMT
In this week's levelling up news.
The Government is under pressure to explain why it awarded hundreds of thousands of pounds of “levelling up” money to fill the potholes of an aristocrat’s driveway.
Labour’s Lisa Nandy has written to Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove demanding whether his department gave the green light to awarding £330,000 to repair the drive of the 8th Viscount Gage (Eton and Oxford of course and a Tory peer.)
The money was part of the Government’s Getting Building Fund administered by the Levelling Up department which Boris Johnson said would boost investment in local areas.
The Daily Mail ( yes that daily mail) reported the £330,000 bid was granted to repair pot holes on a private road on the East Sussex estate owned by multi millionaire( net worth estimated at £20 million) Lord Gage.
Do members of the regime have to think up novel ways of putting two fingers up to the public or does it come naturally to them?
|
|
