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Post by eor on Dec 11, 2021 0:48:17 GMT
On next week's by-election - I'm not sure I buy the excitement. Yes it's looking entirely possible/likely that the Tories will lose the seat, but whether that leads to panic and leadership questions? By-elections are rare altogether; by-elections that are even initially comparable (same party in government, same party challenging) are even rarer. As far as I can see there are only four other by-elections in the last 25 years where the Tories were defending from government against the Lib Dems, and one of those was in Wales. But just on that, they were; Witney, Oct16 - Swing to LD 19.3%, CON Hold (subsequent GE swing -10.2%, CON Hold) Richmond Park, Dec16 - Swing to LD 21.7%, LD Gain (subsequent GE swing -2.5%, CON Gain) Brecon & Radnorshire, Aug19 - Swing to LD 12.0%, LD Gain (subsequent GE swing -10.5%, CON Gain) Chesham & Amersham, Jun21 - Swing to LD 25.2%, LD Gain (GE tbc) So if they lose the seat next week, I'm not sure there's much to say it's particularly going to set nerves jangling. Likewise if they do hold on I don't think it'll be taken as any vindication of Johnson's leadership. I think @jim jam's point about next year's locals will be rather more significant in terms of impact on leadership fortunes. I could imagine there may be some nervousness that the LDs have shed enough baggage from the coalition years and that Brexit may be a little less of a dividing issue to potentially allow a return to the 90s where the LDs won seats and then kept them in subsequent GEs (ie Newbury '93). Whether that would be a justified fear in North Shrops at least I think is doubtful, I would imagine that dissatisfied North Shrops Tories (esp if leave voters) would return to the fold as soon as there's a change of leader. The LDs may be more likely to stick somewhere like Chesham as they chime more with the local mores. One thing the LDs are good at is attempting to build a strong local brand around a new MP. They certainly did that in Oxford West and Abingdon with Layla Moran after (and before) 2017. - thanks for the reply and yes I think it's not something to be ignored entirely, a resurgence of LD support in SW England and SW London could cause a significant issue in terms of parliamentary arithmetic. But with four comparators in a generation, including a three-way marginal in Wales, one triggered by the sitting MP in opposition to his own government on a single issue, and the seat held at the GE by the sitting PM, that's a horrible dataset for interpreting the result in wider terms. Hence my thinking that MPs and others will be more focused on what happens in the local elections where they can get a much more thorough comparison based on 2018, 2014, 2010, 2006... |
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Post by eor on Dec 11, 2021 0:58:19 GMT
mercian Magnus has won - 7.5 - 3.5. He's been unstoppable. Thanks, I've been forgetting to follow it. More wrapped up in Ashes. I'll look at the games - thanks. That's the most decisive WC match for many years I think. Didn't matches use to be much longer? Remembering a 24 game series between Kasparov and Short in the 90s, and think it was even longer back in say Capablanca's era when draws didn't count in the score? |
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Post by eor on Dec 11, 2021 1:09:19 GMT
Just skimmed today's offerings, but there seems to be some consideration of the Conservative succession, for some reason. In light of that, I'll repost this, from the dying embers of the last general thread posted in response to turk . He didn't like it, so I think I've done something right: "[turk] - "I suspect that myself and Colin both share the same opinion regarding Boris neither of us liked Johnson and both of us have stated that on the other site many times. However the good thing about Johnson is that people view him as a personality in his own right and not necessarily as a member of a collective cabinet." Interesting take. colin used to claim Johnson would be transformational, that he 'gets it', or whatever. Other blue supporters on here were equally impressed with Johnson's 'New Model Tories', levelling up and whatnot. What was it? Johnson the CEO, Gove the secretary, Sunak the Treasurer? Or was it Johnson the lying git, Gove the backstabber, Sunak the penny pinching road block to reform? There have been so many versions of this I forget. Before that, Theresa May understood the plight of the 'just about managing' and the 'left behinds', before making a total hash of everything, and before that, it was Cameron who was the new, transformational face of modern Conservatism, before initiating 10 years of pitiless austerity and the degradation of the social sector that we are all still suffering from. So yes, carry on. Raise the new standard, the clean skin who will be the next Tory champion. The one you can all flock round and promise will be the True Messiah to lead us from this desert, just like the last three. One day, even you might wake up to see the pattern." Stating the obvious a little there? As Cameron observed so cuttingly to Blair, "he was the future once!". People become party leader pretty much by definition because they are seen as the best way forward for the time being (or occasionally that picking someone else would be more destructive in other ways). And they are replaced when that's no longer the case; because they've been rejected by the electorate, because they've lost track, because they're not cutting through or because the ground has shifted under them and what they offer is no longer the priority. I have better things to do than sift back on UKPR1 but I doubt it'd be hard to find individuals espousing why Brown, Miliband or Corbyn offered genuine promise for Labour's fortunes, and then others decrying them when it had turned out not to be the case. |
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Post by eor on Dec 11, 2021 1:17:00 GMT
the alternative is, as Bingham pointed out and illustrated, letting people with a proven record in solving difficult practical problems in a timely fashion do it. Which is why she complained about the lack of scientists in government. Ok fair enough, but how are you going to encourage scientists to be effectively administrators and however brilliant as scientists how could we be certain they'd be better at it than the current incumbents anyway? Good point - the ongoing dilemma of how to run schools is relevant here I think. The idea that the best teachers should be promoted into management roles where they have no time to teach seems crazy, but at the same time the idea of having school managers who aren't strongly familiar with the realities of effective teaching seems like a recipe for internal conflict too. |
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Post by mercian on Dec 11, 2021 1:23:01 GMT
Thanks, I've been forgetting to follow it. More wrapped up in Ashes. I'll look at the games - thanks. That's the most decisive WC match for many years I think. Didn't matches use to be much longer? Remembering a 24 game series between Kasparov and Short in the 90s, and think it was even longer back in say Capablanca's era when draws didn't count in the score? Yes they were usually longer (since the Great War anyway). Recently they seem to be 12 classical (normal time limits) followed by Rapid and ultimately Blitz games if classical games are tied (as happened a few years ago). |
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Post by eor on Dec 11, 2021 1:24:31 GMT
On TOH - I retain some hope, that absent any clear good news on Brexit, on Conservative fortunes or indeed on the cricket, he is simply keeping his own counsel and using his limited energies to better purpose than the squabbles here. He had taken to doing that for significant periods on the old site, and it's also worth noting that we've not seen any proof of worse. Given his real name slipped out a few times due to browser tendencies, nothing shows up in google searches of formal notices and as davwel noted no reaction in a niche community he'd be assumed to be known in. So my fingers at least remain crossed! |
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Post by mercian on Dec 11, 2021 1:26:05 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w Ok fair enough, but how are you going to encourage scientists to be effectively administrators and however brilliant as scientists how could we be certain they'd be better at it than the current incumbents anyway? Good point - the ongoing dilemma of how to run schools is relevant here I think. The idea that the best teachers should be promoted into management roles where they have no time to teach seems crazy, but at the same time the idea of having school managers who aren't strongly familiar with the realities of effective teaching seems like a recipe for internal conflict too. Isn't it the old Peter Principle? I have come across many people whether teachers, scientists, computer programmers etc who have turned down promotions because they enjoyed what they did and doubted their administrative competence. |
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Post by eor on Dec 11, 2021 1:36:28 GMT
Alec Well you aren't looking at the data properly then case rate dropped 3000+ today from yesterday 20% up on this time last week and death rate is unchanged from last week despite a 400% increase in cases three weeks ago. Weekly increase in cases dropped from 450% last week.to 180% now and is falling. In addition data shows hospitalization at around a third of the levels seen at this point with the delta variant surge and deaths at around 20% despite double the case rate at the same point. All with virtually no people with a booster jab which looks like providing 70%+ protection. This is an on going situation but panicking about something that hasn't caused the South African authorities to change policies and where less than 20 people have died there with omicron in total isn't science based or proportionate. Interesting that it's now fewer than 20 people who've died when a couple of days ago it was none at all. Presumably that can be scaled as they don't sequence anything near 100% of tests? When you're citing a 180% week on week increase as good it's a very relative statement. Yes the acceleration has eased (although if positivity is as alec said upwards of 30% that strongly suggests testing isn't keeping pace with cases anyway and the numbers are a big undershoot), but it's still rising hard from what is a vastly more substantial level than week ago. And also the first day of the current intense spike was 25th Nov, so barely over 2 weeks ago - your daily commentary on average death rates is still reflecting on a period where they had a few hundred cases a day, not the ten+ thousand a day they're getting now. I remain optimistic that your instinct is right, but it's still too soon to say. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 11, 2021 2:09:21 GMT
While I am on the board, can I pose a question to anybody who may have watched a good Channel 5 documentary last night on the Durrington Walls pits next to Stonehenge. About 15 deep pits have recently been discovered in a broad circle, and must have needed much effort of our ancestors to construct. Within or near the circle is a henge roughly 300 m in diameter - I had a look at it from NLS overheads during the boring advert breaks. The purpose of the pits is unknown, and the programme ended with some unconvincing suggestions, like it was a last flourish of the Stonehenge constructors. My suggestion is that these were pits to keep food cool, using ice collected in winter from the nearby river. Workers and visitors/celebrators would need some feeding. In recent Scottish docs we have seen big ice-houses like one at the estuary of the Spey. If even Scottish estates felt the need, then in the warmer climate of Southern England in Neolithic times, there must have a great need for refrigeration. Another very implausible suggestion came about the pigs slaughtered to feed the many visitors and constructors. Some pigs were thought to have come from Scotland, from tooth chemical composition. The programme rightly (IMHO) took the view that Stonehenge was one of the greatest built achievements of the Neolithic era in the world, and there is still much to learn on how it was organised. Thanks for the reference to the programme, which I've just watched on catch-up. I was more annoyed by the archaeologist describing folk in the Neolithic as "just farmers" and the other claiming that they had been "replaced" by immigrants from Europe. The core sampling and mica analysis bits were new to me though, and that was good. Archaeologists can be even worse than medieval historians for constructing certainties from scraps of evidence - and they are even worse when they try to use science which they often don't fully understand to support theories which happen to match their personal modern political biases. In my view Parker Pearson is one of the worst for that. While he is clearly a much better archaeologist than Kneel Oliver, there are similarities of approach! The bitterness with which they fight their ideological battles makes most politicians look like lovers having a minor tiff. The venom expressed in learned journals by Pearson's team on the one hand and Barclay & Brophy on the other as to whether a few of the pigs "probably" were reared in Scotland or "probably" reared in a small area of the Malvern Hills is remarkable. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 11, 2021 3:24:51 GMT
interesting watching the back and forth over covid.
The evidence from several past waves is that covid has always risen very fast, but then flattened out at way below the entire population catching it. That it should plateau quickly is hardly a surprise if it rises fast because it will quickly use up all available hosts. Measured R in some past studies has been reported at 6 or so, which would be doubling about twice a week. It's not unusual.The real R0 lying behind this must be higher still because we know about some asymptomatic cases, but we must have missed many more.
Fast rise is not at all a bad thing per se. It just means we will get it over with faster and minimise economic disruption because everyone gets Ill at once. What has been very harmful has been suspending economic activity by deliberately sending everyone home until it ends. But of course it cannot ever end if you prevent people catching it by sending them home.
IN the debate above I noticed a report that Omicron thus far has had lower deaths than did delta at the same stage.That sounds excellent news to me because it implies the outcome will be better than the Delta wave, which itself had a death rate not much above what historically has been considered acceptable without any intervention.
Of course choosing to intervene doesn't make sense no matter how many are dying unless that intervention improves matters, and really there isn't evidence it has.
The decision to maintain permanent restrictions was made in 2020 on several assumptions which were incorrect. That it could suppress covid -it doesn't. That test and trace by itself could maintain negligible cases- it cant. That a vaccine available in a year would end the epidemic -it didnt.
the unprecedented policy of lockdown was implemented based upon false promises of effectiveness.
It has boosted the death rate because keeping it going is in other respects a non optimal strategy which simply forfeits the saving of life which could have been achieved by isolating the high risk during a short epidemic where everyone else catches it fast.
No politician is wiling to admit it, but handling of this epidemic was wholly experimental and piled mistake on top of mistake.
SA seems to managing covid very well based upon a vaccination rate of 30% and the rest just catching it.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 11, 2021 4:09:39 GMT
On johnson. I don't see him going any time soon. Unless he has decided he no longer wants the job.
Brexit is going badly and he is the scapegoat for that. No one will want to replace him until he can be used that way, and the party is not yet willing to admit brexit was a disaster. If it had been shown to be a success he could have been dispensed with, because then no scapegoat needed.
On covid he has always opposed lockdown. The increasing backbench revolt agrees with him. If he ceases to be PM he can then join the anti lockdowners attacking government. So neither block wants him out of that job.
As to his falling personal popularity, that may yet recover. If it doesn't it just makes it easier to replace him whenever becomes convenient. Simply replacing him right now would just put someone else in the limelight losing support as the scandals deepen. Which is pointless unless a winnable election is in the offing and would throw away any replacements chance to become pm except temporarily. May accepted becoming pm as it was the only chance she was ever likely to get though it was always a temporary appointment. Like indeed johnson. Cometh the hour, cometh the scapegoats.
Anyone becoming leader now must consider it the end of their ministerial career. Prospects are looking bad on brexit and more people are going to realise I am right on how badly covid has been handled. Labour has not covered itself in glory but this blame will rub off most on whoever is in power. Yes, con backbenchers are trying to salvage the situation for the party but that won't help the front bench.
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Post by moby on Dec 11, 2021 5:32:22 GMT
I'm not your typical gloating remoaner, as I was genuinely in two minds about the vote and only decided about 2-3 days before the ballot to vote Remain. However, for the Express editorial team to distance themselves from Brexit will take some grade A rewriting of history.
I'm only too happy to acknowledge I am that 'typical gloating remoaner'. Problem is gloating only gets you so far and then the depression kicks in again. The economic/political prospects for the UK look dire and everyone hates us at Eurovision. |
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Post by thexterminatingdalek on Dec 11, 2021 5:34:24 GMT
Tancred
'what does Starmer offer? What are his policies? He needs to spell out his vision for the country, not empty rhetoric."
I sense the cold, dead hand of Mandelson. Time will tell if repeating the strategy of having no policy which just about worked for Cameron will pay off for labour. Polling currently suggests it might.
I believe the problem for labour is not that Starmer is ineffective per se, but that he is the wrong opponent to put up against Johnson.
They seem to be gambling on Johnson being replaced by someone with a closer relationship with reality and honour before the next election. Since Johnson culled this faction before the last election, this field is now somewhat thin, and it's impossible to rule out someone like Truss appealing to the Tory elderly gentlemen members of the South east and home counties for being as mad and blonde as their former great leader.
It would be an act of folly to defenestrate Starmer now, only to find Sunak or Hunt elevated and expect Angela Rayner to look anything other than bolshy and shrill at the wednesday event.
I think things will remain as they are until Johnson goes. If he's still in place at the next election, events will dictate the result, if not, we'll see.
Personally, I wish as much as she probably does that Emily Thornberry hadn't tweeted that picture, since she will now never lead the party. Yvette Cooper is a long way from where I'd like to see the only party with any chance of defeating the Tories where I live, but she's sharp as a knife and the only one at the moment I can imagine performing well not only against Johnson, but also wherever succeeds him. Unfortunately, she seems to have no hunger for the role.
It's all a bit tricky.
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Post by moby on Dec 11, 2021 5:45:30 GMT
This is where the Lib Dems may still cease to be significant in UK politics in my opinion. Time will tell about the UK/EU in the future. The significance of the LibDems is that they are the only political party that still believes in the EU as an institution. The problem for the LibDems is the usual one: the electoral system. I keep hoping that Labour would be grown-up enough to endorse electoral reform but I keep being disappointed. This is why the best result in the next general election would be a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party - this would open the door to possibilities. Actually this Labour Party member would support a United States of Europe. The issue is where we are now though. The issue of Brexit is toxic for Labour. The best way forward therefore is telling the Govmt "make brexit work". It won't of course but it has to be seen to not work over time for there to be a shift to rejoin. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 11, 2021 5:56:24 GMT
Danny
The real world data from South Africa indicates that vaccine is actually highly effective against severe illness. With 70% of admissions to hospital being unvaccinated and younger those most likely to suffer severe illness the over 65's are not represented in large numbers, this age cohort is 70%+ fully vaccinated, there is no current booster programme in South Africa but one is due to commence shortly.
In the province with the highest rate of omicron, case numbers have actually fallen for the last four days, tentatively it looks that cases have peaked there.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 11, 2021 6:24:08 GMT
COMRES makes 5 in a row with an average Lab lead of just under 6 and the Tories around 33%. With Opinium yet to come and they tend to favour Labour things are looking bleak for the Tories in the short term. As others have said over recent weeks, even without any further sleeze, corruption or lies stories, the government face problems with inflation, lack of GDP improvement etc. Rather things look bleak in the longer term. I don't think it's anywhere bleak enough for the Tories. If Labour was effective as an opposition it would be 10-15 points ahead of the Tories in every poll. People criticised Corbyn and some of that criticism may have been justified, but what does Starmer offer? What are his policies? He needs to spell out his vision for the country, not empty rhetoric. Starmer is not a charismatic leader and he has not put forward many policies, but you overstate things. He is now averaging a six point lead, this is off the back of a disastrous 2019 election where many wrote Labour off for the next two elections. He has done very well to get Labour back in contention in two years and the next election is likely 2-3 years away. In the meantime he and Labour must keep chipping away at the Conservatives and have a set of coherent policies in time for the next election. Rushing out policies which become irrelevant come the next rlection and results in accusations of U turns is not the way to go I assume from the logic of your position you must be even more disgusted with the lib-dems and their leadership with their opinion poll ratings? For me I think the lib-dems will improve come an election and like Labour will benefit from the ABT vote and will do well in the coming by-election. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 11, 2021 6:44:21 GMT
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Post by moby on Dec 11, 2021 7:16:26 GMT
Tancred 'what does Starmer offer? What are his policies? He needs to spell out his vision for the country, not empty rhetoric." I sense the cold, dead hand of Mandelson. Time will tell if repeating the strategy of having no policy which just about worked for Cameron will pay off for labour. Polling currently suggests it might. I believe the problem for labour is not that Starmer is ineffective per se, but that he is the wrong opponent to put up against Johnson. They seem to be gambling on Johnson being replaced by someone with a closer relationship with reality and honour before the next election. Since Johnson culled this faction before the last election, this field is now somewhat thin, and it's impossible to rule out someone like Truss appealing to the Tory elderly gentlemen members of the South east and home counties for being as mad and blonde as their former great leader. It would be an act of folly to defenestrate Starmer now, only to find Sunak or Hunt elevated and expect Angela Rayner to look anything other than bolshy and shrill at the wednesday event. I think things will remain as they are until Johnson goes. If he's still in place at the next election, events will dictate the result, if not, we'll see. Personally, I wish as much as she probably does that Emily Thornberry hadn't tweeted that picture, since she will now never lead the party. Yvette Cooper is a long way from where I'd like to see the only party with any chance of defeating the Tories where I live, but she's sharp as a knife and the only one at the moment I can imagine performing well not only against Johnson, but also wherever succeeds him. Unfortunately, she seems to have no hunger for the role. Starmer has had to tread very carefully as being too critical of the incumbent Govmt during a national crisis could easily backfire, we are also still too early in the electoral cycle for policies surely? and he needs time to get his people in place and recognised after the failed Corbyn experiment. He also needs a plausible line on brexit and "making brexit work" seems the way to go since it's such a divisive issue. He needs time and surely the boring but honest lawyer is perfect as a foil for a corrupt chancer taking us down the tubes. |
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Post by moby on Dec 11, 2021 7:20:26 GMT
Don't forget the Mail have their own agenda. They've been attacking Johnson for months now, probably an editorial policy aimed at replacing him with rich Richy or Hunt? |
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 11, 2021 7:36:43 GMT
JIB
I agree entirely with your point about vaccination.
Real world evidence is mounting that vaccination does provide good protection form the omicron variant against severe illness and the additional booster is highly effective.
This should bode well for the U.K. but no doubt covid hysteria and the regime desperate attempt to change the subject will mean we have to go through a period of unnecessary restrictions and damaging closures.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 11, 2021 7:40:07 GMT
Attachment DeletedMoby You may be right about Yvette Cooper but she seemed quite keen on leadership when I voted for her a few years back. Shame we got catweazel instead.
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Post by moby on Dec 11, 2021 7:49:30 GMT
<button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted </button> Moby You may be right about Yvette Cooper but she seemed quite keen on leadership when I voted for her a few years back. Shame we got catweazel instead. I think that was Tancreds comment Steve Guess whose going on paternity leave! |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 11, 2021 8:00:20 GMT
Danny The real world data from South Africa indicates that vaccine is actually highly effective against severe illness. With 70% of admissions to hospital being unvaccinated and younger those most likely to suffer severe illness the over 65's are not represented in large numbers, this age cohort is 70%+ fully vaccinated, there is no current booster programme in South Africa but one is due to commence shortly. In the province with the highest rate of omicron, case numbers have actually fallen for the last four days, tentatively it looks that cases have peaked there. if its already fading where it began then that's it.Game over. That's what happened in the uk last year. Fast rise, fast end. This year the vaccination program seems to have kept it going because vaccinated people far from being immune to catching new strains are failing to become immune to new strains and getting repeat infections. not dangerous ones though. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 11, 2021 8:08:04 GMT
Danny
That isn't how vaccine works.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 11, 2021 8:16:17 GMT
Someone interviewed on R4 who sounded like a disgruntled tory mentioned that if Omicron has a lower death rate than delta, and it would rapidly replace delta as happened in SA, then keeping it out is killing people by continuing to expose them to the more dangerous delta.
wear a mask- kill a granny. Government find that a catchy slogan?
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Post by alec on Dec 11, 2021 8:25:35 GMT
steve - re SA cases, don't forget that there will have been a social reaction to this, so people will be being more careful, and that affects rate of spread.
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Post by jimjam on Dec 11, 2021 8:26:14 GMT
Trevor,
Thanks for your thoughtful post at the top of page 10 where I think we agree that unless Johnson himself decides he has had enough insufficient Tory MPs will issue letters until after the locals in May. (then results will dictate of course).
Just one question (an open one not just to you but prompted by your post).
50% would be unlikely but in reality a lower number is needed for the PMs position to be untenable; what is the minimum he would need to survive?
I kind of reckon 65%, as a third of your MPs wishing you gone is a powerful meme for the opposition parties.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 11, 2021 8:27:05 GMT
Danny That isn't how vaccine works. what isnt? It is possible that imprinting people on the wrong set of antibodies with a vaccine will give them a pattern which cannot be shifted by mild new infections. so they remain susceptible to repeat infection because that antibody is a bit off. Ask Alec, he posted it several times but stopped after I pointed out keep re vaccinating with a poor vaccine was the most likely way for this to happen. The vaccine doesn't stop repeat infections. It only does this immediately after its given while the initial boost lasts. But the cost of this is imprinting the wrong pattern. The implication is anyone in a safe category has always been better off catching covid than being vaccinated. Which seems to be exactly what they have done in SA. In britain they have done the wrong thing again because it has become a political imperative to prove waiting for a vaccine was the right decision. It wasnt. |
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Post by jimjam on Dec 11, 2021 8:30:55 GMT
I saw an interesting hypothetical question on another site I visit periodically.
Of the last 5 PMs, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, Johnson; who would have been the best to handle Covid.
Brown, I guess based on his handling of the 2008 crash, was the overwhelming choice.
A few went for Cameron or Blair based on their better communication skills but for decision making and attention to detail Brown was was the clear preference.
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Post by t7g4 on Dec 11, 2021 8:32:28 GMT
Labour doing well in the polls without opening their mouths.
This seems to be a strategy that is working for the time being.
I doubt there will be a UK GE until the last possible moment or May 23 at the earliest.
We are in the essence of midterm and a government that’s been in power for 11 years is expected to be behind.
I don’t think the current polling will get better for the Conservatives for the foreseeable future especially with more lockdown restrictions.
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