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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 14:29:43 GMT
If the Resolution Foundation is correct with their estimates, there will have to be some government intervention (probably on the demand side, I don't think they have the channels/means for intervention on the supply side). On Energy prices-which is by far the biggest element of their £1200 pa col increase-definitely @laszlo The problem is , by what means-and for how long. RF seems to agree with the Times article I quoted earlier-that allowing a large cap rise and compensating consumers through the mish mash of welfare benefits could leave some unreached & would be administratively complex. To intervene in the cap rise by compensating suppliers is the other option. How politically acceptable is it. And the whole issue has even RF saying "Public subsidies cannot be the permanent answer to higher energy prices, so any move should be temporary," On the proposed NI increase , plus CT of course, RF drops some intriguing suggestions :- "There is a broad consensus that taxes will generally be rising in the years ahead, given the long-term impact of the pandemic as well as pre-existing, structural fiscal pressures. But it is fair to assume that the Treasury did not envision these tax rises taking place at exactly the same time as a new coronavirus wave, falling real wages and huge energy price rises." and "It is possible that the combination of Conservative MPs opposed to any tax rises, and a Labour Party that thinks NI rises are unfair, could together cause the NI rise to be delayed, given the wider cost of living pressures in 2022." More potential for Starmer here -without doubt. And problems for Sunak. - yes, I read your points about that Times article, just I'm still catching up. The Norwegian government decided that they would subsidise energy prices for a while. The method is unclear yet, but I talked to someone (in the context of Christmas greetings) from there and he said that they would likely give the subsidy to the energy suppliers. Obviously the scale is very different here, so not a good guidance (but making the subsidy means tested would be worse). |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 29, 2021 14:30:12 GMT
Ethnic nationalism is not solely the domain of the far-right, although the far-right has hijacked the issue for its own political purposes. Ethnic unity is simply one of the cornerstones of what a nation is defined as - though in some cases, such as Switzerland, an ethnically diverse state can thrive with devolution and localism. For this reason I would grant Scotland (and also Wales if it wants) maximum devolution, so that it can continue to exist as a crown dependency in the same way as IOM, CI and Gibraltar. This is the limit of what I would grant. I am a European unionist and also class myself as a European nationalist. That's interesting use of words: "grant', "dependency" "crown" etc All of which raises the questions who or what is doing the "granting", what legitimacy do they have to do so, what is the nature of this new "dependency' status and who decides ,as you have, that Scotland is "better off"in the UK? I know the EU is often criticised for lack of democratic accountability but I find it interesting that it appears to go out of its way to look after the interests of smaller nations and as such it gains approval from those nation's population. Could this be because of a lack of political involvement, where short termism rules and parties generally work to keep themselves in power, whilst managing for the benefit of the county's best interests is second priority. This could, in some ways explain why smaller nations like Scotland prefer EU membership to UK governance. Maybe the 'm' and the 'g' words at the end of that last sentence are critical and maybe, if England thought of UK member nations in the same way as the EU regards its members, things would be different. |
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Post by hireton on Dec 29, 2021 14:34:41 GMT
Nearly 16,0000 new covid cases reported today in Scotland (just over 9.000 yesterday). Some of the increase will be explained by delays in testing etc over the holidays but that simply means that earlier days were undereported.
No changes in Scotland's covid measures announced by the FM today and a decision will be taken next week on whether to reduce the self isolation requirement across the board to supplement current sector specific measures.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 29, 2021 14:40:59 GMT
@ Old Southendian Is this relevant to polling, not really, but I'd recommend "Citizen Kane" to anyone interested in politics
Well Citizen Kane often tops polls of 'experts/critics' on best film ever - I guess because it was incredibly inventive for its time - so raising this as far as relevance for the site is concerned your probably in the top 70% for all post.  Personally I like the big Hollywood epics of the 50's and 60's - once you get over the historical inaccuracies, Charlton Heston's role in the NRA etc - they are still great fun to watch. |
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Post by somerjohn on Dec 29, 2021 14:41:16 GMT
Colin: On Energy prices-which is by far the biggest element of their £1200 pa col increase
£600 is the Resolution Foundation's figure for energy increases, with the NI increase costing the same. So energy isn't "by far the biggest element" of the RF £1200 figure. Other forecasters have put the energy figure at £800 or £900, but then the overall total rises too.
In Spain, the government has tackled the issue by suspending VAT on energy bills as well as green taxes and levies. It's not clear to me why it should be too big an ask for Sunak to do the same (especially as he'd be foregoing just 5% VAT, not 21% as in Spain).
It's perhaps also worth noting that in Spain consumer bills respond immediately to market energy prices, so there is no distortion of the industry by forcing companies to sell at below cost, resulting here in the UK in failures and a subsequent overhang of rescue costs to be added to bills. Of course, that means their inflation rate takes the hit immediately, rather than months or years down the road.
To forestall a possible response, my point is not "EU good, UK rubbish" but rather that it can be a good idea when faced with common problems to see how others are tackling them, rather than seeing everything within the confines of a UK bubble (as the Times article you reference appears to do, though I haven't seen any more than your quotes because of paywall).
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Post by davwel on Dec 29, 2021 14:41:35 GMT
Once again Johnson chooses to play hard on the continuing differences in handling covid between our nations. Many of us would appreciate some sensitivity, some recognition, that there are very valid reasons, certainly for the England/Scotland differences.
Such as the existing poorer life longevity, and health outcomes in Scotland than England, and the greater personal drawbacks and costs for those needing hospitals here, in ambulance waits, travelling time. What English county would tolerate the situation now in Moray, which currently has no hospital that can manage difficult births - so 60-mile-plus journeys are needed to Aberdeen or Inverness? And it follows that families then have to make 120-mile-plus round trips to see their loved ones in hospital.
Attempts are being made by the SG to alleviate the ambulance delay problems, so there can be single-manning again here by medically capable staff. Has that been introduced or even discussed in England? Will the gains outweigh the losses?
In these last few days there has been discussion in the media of persons crossing borders into England from Scotland and Wales to evade the hospitality restrictions. But no questions were put to Johnson on why he didn`t plan to have tighter rules for the border counties, Cumbria and Northumberland, to help lessen the covid problems in the Scottish Borders.
The impression I and many others are left with, is that Johnson is not acting as a PM for the whole UK, but simply to manage our UK affairs to advantage England and himself.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 14:44:18 GMT
colin From what you say, it is pretty clear that from an economic point of view taxes need to go up, while much of the conservative party wants them to go down. This is clearly a problem for Sunak and should be an opportunity for Reeves and Starmer. As you point out, the latter do not want to raise NI as they consider that unfair. I agree with all of that but am interested in how you think they should go about raising taxes (if that is what you do think) without severely dmmaging their electoral prospects. I can see that they have to do this one way or another, but am not clear what effective ways are available to them. Since UK is unable to tax Gazprom-or whoever is sticking these prices up inn Russia-(or the EU ?), I am quite attracted to another article in my Times today. Here are selected quotes:- "The government is facing growing calls for the introduction of a windfall tax on North Sea profits to transfer some of the pain of the energy crisis from consumers to producers. Dale Vince, founder of the renewable energy provider Ecotricity, yesterday called for oil and gas producers which have made large profits from the surge in wholesale prices to help to pay the bill for companies that have collapsed under the strain. North Sea producers have collectively made about £20 billion from the burgeoning prices while consumers face a £4 billion bill, double the £2 billion estimate, for moving millions of customers from the failed companies to new ones, Vince said. “North Sea operators have made a killing in this crisis. A windfall tax would easily cover the cost [of paying to move the stranded customers],” the businessman told the BBC’s Today programme. That bill is due to be passed on to customers from April, after the regulator Ofgem reviews the energy cap. Predictions are that the rise in wholesale prices plus passing on costs for firms collapsing will leave households facing bills of £2,000, almost twice the level of 12 months ago based on average use." I realise that a WT is a one off-so we will have to see what happens to prices later in the year........and pray for a correction. Energy Price intervention apart, any CoE should be funding his/her deficits and excess borrowing with the usual panoply of taxes imo. The choice as to which tax is a matter of judgement for him/her in context of the whole economy. |
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Post by moby on Dec 29, 2021 14:51:06 GMT
Once again Johnson chooses to play hard on the continuing differences in handling covid between our nations. Many of us would appreciate some sensitivity, some recognition, that there are very valid reasons, certainly for the England/Scotland differences. Such as the existing poorer life longevity, and health outcomes in Scotland than England, and the greater personal drawbacks and costs for those needing hospitals here, in ambulance waits, travelling time. What English county would tolerate the situation now in Moray, which currently has no hospital that can manage difficult births - so 60-mile-plus journeys are needed to Aberdeen or Inverness? And it follows that families then have to make 120-mile-plus round trips to see their loved ones in hospital. Attempts are being made by the SG to alleviate the ambulance delay problems, so there can be single-manning again here by medically capable staff. Has that been introduced or even discussed in England? Will the gains outweigh the losses? In these last few days there has been discussion in the media of persons crossing borders into England from Scotland and Wales to evade the hospitality restrictions. But no questions were put to Johnson on why he didn`t plan to have tighter rules for the border counties, Cumbria and Northumberland, to help lessen the covid problems in the Scottish Borders. The impression I and many others are left with, is that Johnson is not acting as a PM for the whole UK, but simply to manage our UK affairs to advantage England and himself. Chester and Bristol will be full of Welsh party goers on New Years Eve. Perhaps Johnson sees that as a victory as to him politics is probably a zero sum game. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 29, 2021 14:55:24 GMT
What I find immensely irritating on energy prices is that having long made the decision to be on renewables, and probably paying a premium to do so over the years, my bill still goes up massively on electricity because the price of renewables rises as the supply/demand goes up for electricity from any source. It's like a sub plot on the already known theme of getting your renewable electricity from a company that isn't 100% renewable meaning they just push your renewable use into their overall strategy and then claim they have a high percentage of renewables. I'd never considered that this would extend to 100% renewable companies as well who do not generate their own electricity and are therefore reliant on market prices. I know there are a few local projects that have been set up to own their own renewable generation and maybe those are now benefiting from more stable prices but still feel like a bit of a mug here when I should be into a period of smug liberal superiority :-) which raises the question, is there more in store? I do find myself wondering to what extent it is the middle classes’ turn to experience what the working classes experienced. That having reduced the power of the working class, it’s now the middle classes turn to experience the ravages of globalism and capital etc. They might have been ok with it when gaining from house prices hikes and CGT cuts, with careers to some extent protected from the kind of competition experienced by the working classes. But gradually, is it coming for the middle classes too? Hearing the chants of Lecturers demonstrating nearby because of the casualisation of the workforce. Over the years I’ve seen several domains haemorrhage jobs, in music education and the arts. Now one wonders as to the future of HE if students begin to ditch degrees for apprenticeships, and it becomes easier for a few people to deliver content online to so many. All those jobs in marketing, accounts, Human Resources etc... how many will survive, or be increasingly undercut by foreign competition? And prices of essentials rising to the point even more of the middle class feel it? Hi - I'd say it very much arrived already and has been evident for some time in both the UK and US with the off-shoring of mc jobs in sectors such as finance, HR admin and IT etc. It was undoubtedly a factor in Trump's rise and why the blue areas of England and Wales swung behind Brexit. I have always thought the usual economist's assertion/argument that the economy on the future will create new types of jobs that will compensate for those lost, as more an article of faith than a law of nature. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 29, 2021 14:55:44 GMT
What I find immensely irritating on energy prices is that having long made the decision to be on renewables, and probably paying a premium to do so over the years, my bill still goes up massively on electricity because the price of renewables rises as the supply/demand goes up for electricity from any source. It's like a sub plot on the already known theme of getting your renewable electricity from a company that isn't 100% renewable meaning they just push your renewable use into their overall strategy and then claim they have a high percentage of renewables. I'd never considered that this would extend to 100% renewable companies as well who do not generate their own electricity and are therefore reliant on market prices. I know there are a few local projects that have been set up to own their own renewable generation and maybe those are now benefiting from more stable prices but still feel like a bit of a mug here when I should be into a period of smug liberal superiority :-) Yes, this is the problem. The wholesale price of electricity is set by the marginal cost of generating the last watt to meet demand. As we are still dependent on gas-fired CCGT power stations, in practice that means the cost of gas also fixes the price of electricity. Generators like wind farms or nuclear power whose costs are primarily capital and have little or zero fuel costs end up making windfall profits, but that isn't apparent just yet. Having also been with a supplier of 100% renewable electricity, I hadn't appreciated either how vulnerable I was to the market (probably because for the previous three years, wholesale prices had been pretty low and stable). If a supplier has to own all its own generating capacity to meet the maximum demand of its customers, that in itself will push up prices and also make switching harder because no supplier will want to take on additional customers. I would also add that one can transfer risk to the State from private companies by nationalisation, but this doesn't do anything to reduce the risk; it just means that the risk is on the State's books rather than a private company's. The trouble then is that States don't usually tend to be proactive in increasing generating capacity because that costs money and the State does not have a profit motive in the same way a private company has (although oddly the model of municipally-run utilities did seem to work before WW2, at least for large municipalities like Birmingham). |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 14:58:50 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 29, 2021 15:03:42 GMT
Attachment DeletedOn a grey and depressing day in a grey and depressing country thought I would share a photo of my favourite place. Made me feel better anyway.
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Post by tancred on Dec 29, 2021 15:13:00 GMT
Ethnic nationalism is not solely the domain of the far-right, although the far-right has hijacked the issue for its own political purposes. Ethnic unity is simply one of the cornerstones of what a nation is defined as - though in some cases, such as Switzerland, an ethnically diverse state can thrive with devolution and localism. For this reason I would grant Scotland (and also Wales if it wants) maximum devolution, so that it can continue to exist as a crown dependency in the same way as IOM, CI and Gibraltar. This is the limit of what I would grant. I am a European unionist and also class myself as a European nationalist. Funnily enough, I immediately also thought of Switzerland when reading ON's post. Switzerland has always puzzled me, but I guess you have to study the history more carefully than I ever had to understand how it came to be as it currently is. It defies conventional logic in so many ways, different cultures, different languages, and if you think that it makes sense geographically, then take a closer look at the borders. Yes, some of them coincide with the highest watersheds of the Alps, but by no means do all of the borders work that way, and the Northern border is just the usual mismash of history. And yet it works so well, with a highly tiered local and national democratic system. Switzerland started as a local rebellion against Hapsburg rule which grew to cover several areas. Over time, Switzerland expanded by a number of small, successful wars, to cover some French and Italian speaking areas, as well as an area where an Italian-like mountain dialect called Romansh is spoken. The Swiss have prospered because they have stayed out of the power politics of the continent and focused on improving their own country, allowing each canton considerable self-government. That said, even in Switzerland there was a civil war, fought in 1847, which lasted all of.........three weeks! |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 15:17:11 GMT
<button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button> On a grey and depressing day in a grey and depressing country thought I would share a photo of my favourite place. Made me feel better anyway. Is that Droitwich?? |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 15:18:30 GMT
which raises the question, is there more in store? I do find myself wondering to what extent it is the middle classes’ turn to experience what the working classes experienced. That having reduced the power of the working class, it’s now the middle classes turn to experience the ravages of globalism and capital etc. They might have been ok with it when gaining from house prices hikes and CGT cuts, with careers to some extent protected from the kind of competition experienced by the working classes. But gradually, is it coming for the middle classes too? Hearing the chants of Lecturers demonstrating nearby because of the casualisation of the workforce. Over the years I’ve seen several domains haemorrhage jobs, in music education and the arts. Now one wonders as to the future of HE if students begin to ditch degrees for apprenticeships, and it becomes easier for a few people to deliver content online to so many. All those jobs in marketing, accounts, Human Resources etc... how many will survive, or be increasingly undercut by foreign competition? And prices of essentials rising to the point even more of the middle class feel it? Hi - I'd say it very much arrived already and has been evident for some time in both the UK and US with the off-shoring of mc jobs in sectors such as finance, HR admin and IT etc. It was undoubtedly a factor in Trump's rise and why the blue areas of England and Wales swung behind Brexit. I have always thought the usual economist's assertion/argument that the economy on the future will create new types of jobs that will compensate for those lost, as more an article of faith than a law of nature. yes, and one might add that in addition to offshoring, there is the rise of the algorithm, with increasingly complex decisions being devolved to computers. There is also an increasing DIY element, with so much info. available online. From people representing themselves legally, to the demise of so many recording studios as people increasingly do more recording at home and learn about it online. The question is, how far does this go? How far does it progress beyond the middle class McJobs, into their more lucrative roles? Another vector is the way some companies might bypass things like traditional marketing and dealerships, like Musk for example? |
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Post by tancred on Dec 29, 2021 15:19:41 GMT
I'm not sure that there is any treatment out there that could work. Most of the inflationary pressures we are seeing are cost-push rather than demand-pull, so even higher interest rates are unlikely to make much of an impact. This inflation will eventually slow and settle down of its own accord, Hmm. We seem to have engineered a re-run of the energy shocks of the 70s when the arabs achieved the ability to monopolise oil production and therefore held the world to ransom. Which created a massive shift of wealth to them.
This time we have managed to combine a government effort to prevent development of new fossil fuel energy sources, so as to force consumers to shift to renewables, with Covid which created a year's dip in demand further discouraging development...followed by a resurgence of demand.
By policy we have created an energy supply crisis. I don't see government doing anything at all to resolve it. Subsidising anyone isn't going to resolve the problem of reducing demand or increasing supply. If anything, it just keeps the inflationary pressure going. If prices rise, then demand tends to fall. Right now most people are going to complain, not turn down their heating.
This has hardly started, because energy costs feed through to virtually everything we manufacture and then buy. If energy prices drop again then it might fade out, but is there any real reason to think they will? Is government about to launch a massive drive to increase renewables production? No? Is it going to open up more oil fields or gas fields? No? Is it going to ration energy?
We are currently in a crisis engineered by government. It keeps relying upon markets to solve problems. Markets love problems of shortages because they can make more money!
Demand is never going to dampen down, that should be crystal clear. Energy isn't like watches or meals out or mobile phones, it's an essential expenditure - we need energy to live in our homes, to provide power to operate all the many electronic items we now have, to heat the house in cold weather, to cook our food. You cannot cut this demand without returning to living in the 19th century. |
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Post by Danny on Dec 29, 2021 15:25:31 GMT
Zoe today reporting R for London down to 1.1 again. England 1.2. A very distinct slowing of cases in the last few days, which is probably due to the christmas holiday. I dont understand why government is so concerned about christmas, when its a time people stop going to work thus get less exposure.
Usual caveat applies, this might be a far slower rise than government was claiming, but its still a rise. There will be plenty of cases of omicron. Booster vaccinations with a vaccine which isnt very good at preventing cases and wears off in three months isnt going to do anything except string this out for months.
The question is the extent to which severity of cases has fallen because everyone has by now been exposed to covid and quite possibly most have had it. This is certainly true amongst the young, and the mantainance of the outbreak is largely dependent on it continuing amongst them. South Africa only saw any reason to vaccinate 30% of its population. Worked for them.
Omicron replacing delta will have saved lives, shame the government was so determined to slow down how fast this new treatment was put in place.
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Post by bardin1 on Dec 29, 2021 15:28:03 GMT
 Replying to Steve here's the view near me |
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Post by hireton on Dec 29, 2021 15:30:40 GMT
Once again Johnson chooses to play hard on the continuing differences in handling covid between our nations. Many of us would appreciate some sensitivity, some recognition, that there are very valid reasons, certainly for the England/Scotland differences. Such as the existing poorer life longevity, and health outcomes in Scotland than England, and the greater personal drawbacks and costs for those needing hospitals here, in ambulance waits, travelling time. What English county would tolerate the situation now in Moray, which currently has no hospital that can manage difficult births - so 60-mile-plus journeys are needed to Aberdeen or Inverness? And it follows that families then have to make 120-mile-plus round trips to see their loved ones in hospital. Attempts are being made by the SG to alleviate the ambulance delay problems, so there can be single-manning again here by medically capable staff. Has that been introduced or even discussed in England? Will the gains outweigh the losses? In these last few days there has been discussion in the media of persons crossing borders into England from Scotland and Wales to evade the hospitality restrictions. But no questions were put to Johnson on why he didn`t plan to have tighter rules for the border counties, Cumbria and Northumberland, to help lessen the covid problems in the Scottish Borders. The impression I and many others are left with, is that Johnson is not acting as a PM for the whole UK, but simply to manage our UK affairs to advantage England and himself. It has been notable over the past couple of days that a lot of right wing commentators and Tory MPs have been tweeting the same line about Scotland's "draconian" and "illiberal" restrictions (ignoring that Wales and NI are pretty much in line with Scotland) so I think a line to take was issued fro, somewhere. The Treasurer of the 1922 Committee referred to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland as the "principalities" and being out of step with England. Our Tory MP Andrew Bowie commented on Twitter that the UK Government's measures were proportionate etc in contrast to those in force in Scotland. He then quickly tweeted that people should observe whatever guidance and regulations were in force where they lived realising no doubt that he was deliberately undermining the SG guidance etc. So it does seem that the Tory party has now taken a decision to politicise covid to undermine the devolved governments ( I see that today the English Health Secretary publicly criticised a measure announced by the Welsh Government). |
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Post by tancred on Dec 29, 2021 15:33:58 GMT
which raises the question, is there more in store? I do find myself wondering to what extent it is the middle classes’ turn to experience what the working classes experienced. That having reduced the power of the working class, it’s now the middle classes turn to experience the ravages of globalism and capital etc. They might have been ok with it when gaining from house prices hikes and CGT cuts, with careers to some extent protected from the kind of competition experienced by the working classes. But gradually, is it coming for the middle classes too? Hearing the chants of Lecturers demonstrating nearby because of the casualisation of the workforce. Over the years I’ve seen several domains haemorrhage jobs, in music education and the arts. Now one wonders as to the future of HE if students begin to ditch degrees for apprenticeships, and it becomes easier for a few people to deliver content online to so many. All those jobs in marketing, accounts, Human Resources etc... how many will survive, or be increasingly undercut by foreign competition? And prices of essentials rising to the point even more of the middle class feel it? Hi - I'd say it very much arrived already and has been evident for some time in both the UK and US with the off-shoring of mc jobs in sectors such as finance, HR admin and IT etc. It was undoubtedly a factor in Trump's rise and why the blue areas of England and Wales swung behind Brexit. I have always thought the usual economist's assertion/argument that the economy on the future will create new types of jobs that will compensate for those lost, as more an article of faith than a law of nature. There is a current debate in the USA about the decline of the middle class. People are finding that they cannot make ends meet while attempting to live a middle class life. I have to confess that, in a highly materialistic society like the USA, this impoverishment of the middle class is an illusion - there are far more rich Americans now than there have ever been. The reason that the size of the American middle class has declined is because the rich class has increased - in many ways the middle class of the 1960-1990 period has now become the new wealthy class. Offshoring is one thing that has been hitting the middle class in both American and western Europe, but not just that - immigration has been a factor too. When I started my IT career in the early '90s anyone who could press a button on a keyboard could get a job. Nowadays there is intense competition for every job and we have seen a multitude of highly skilled immigrants, mainly from India, come here to get jobs that would otherwise have gone to native people. So, the middle class in the UK has experienced the same pain from immigrant competition that the working class has felt with regard to east Europeans taking jobs in bricklaying, plumbing etc. The difference is that the middle class has largely accepted this immigrant competition with resignation and pragmatism instead of taking to the streets demanding an end to Indian immigration or whatever. I guess this is because middle class workers tend not to be unionised and are used to risk much more than working class workers, who expect security in a job as a high priority. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 29, 2021 15:35:53 GMT
tancred
"You cannot cut this demand without returning to living in the 19th century."
I wonder if anyone has done a comparison (maybe Alec knows?) of the domestic energy consumption per head of those living in the 19th century was compared with those nowadays in similar sized houses.
This 19th century house had no roof insulation or central heating when it was built (or when we moved in!) - heating was provided by 6 coal fires a coal fired kitchen range and a coal fired boiler in the wash house. Most of the heat generated probably went straight up the chimney and was wasted.
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Post by tancred on Dec 29, 2021 15:39:58 GMT
Ethnic nationalism is not solely the domain of the far-right, although the far-right has hijacked the issue for its own political purposes. Ethnic unity is simply one of the cornerstones of what a nation is defined as - though in some cases, such as Switzerland, an ethnically diverse state can thrive with devolution and localism. For this reason I would grant Scotland (and also Wales if it wants) maximum devolution, so that it can continue to exist as a crown dependency in the same way as IOM, CI and Gibraltar. This is the limit of what I would grant. I am a European unionist and also class myself as a European nationalist. That's interesting use of words: "grant', "dependency" "crown" etc All of which raises the questions who or what is doing the "granting", what legitimacy do they have to do so, what is the nature of this new "dependency' status and who decides ,as you have, that Scotland is "better off"in the UK? Well, who is doing the 'granting' is of course the Crown, and HM Government acting on behalf of the Crown. Simple. These are the constitutional rules under which we live in this country. The Scottish people decided in 2014 that they are better off inside the UK and I have no doubt that they will continue to hold this view in the future, but, given that a large minority want independence, my opinion is that a devolution-max option should also be put to the Scottish people as another alternative. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 29, 2021 15:41:01 GMT
hireton
"The Treasurer of the 1922 Committee referred to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland as the "principalities" and being out of step with England."
I'm reminded of the apocryphal tale of the proud Glasgow mum in WWI watching her son march off to war with his new battalion. "Dae ye see that Mary?", she exclaimed to her friend, "They're aw oot o step but oor Jock!!
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Post by tancred on Dec 29, 2021 15:42:40 GMT
tancred "You cannot cut this demand without returning to living in the 19th century." I wonder if anyone has done a comparison (maybe Alec knows?) of the domestic energy consumption per head of those living in the 19th century was compared with those nowadays in similar sized houses. This 19th century house had no roof insulation or central heating when it was built (or when we moved in!) - heating was provided by 6 coal fires a coal fired kitchen range and a coal fired boiler in the wash house. Most of the heat generated probably went straight up the chimney and was wasted. True, but we had no TVs or computers in the 19th century, and also no central heating. People tended to 'live' in one room and then go straight to bed. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 15:48:00 GMT
Hi - I'd say it very much arrived already and has been evident for some time in both the UK and US with the off-shoring of mc jobs in sectors such as finance, HR admin and IT etc. It was undoubtedly a factor in Trump's rise and why the blue areas of England and Wales swung behind Brexit. I have always thought the usual economist's assertion/argument that the economy on the future will create new types of jobs that will compensate for those lost, as more an article of faith than a law of nature. There is a current debate in the USA about the decline of the middle class. People are finding that they cannot make ends meet while attempting to live a middle class life. I have to confess that, in a highly materialistic society like the USA, this impoverishment of the middle class is an illusion - there are far more rich Americans now than there have ever been. The reason that the size of the American middle class has declined is because the rich class has increased - in many ways the middle class of the 1960-1990 period has now become the new wealthy class. Interesting perspective in the light of something have cited before: the idea of an overpopulated elite, popularised by Turchin. “labour oversupply leads to falling living standards and elite overproduction, and those, in turn, cause a wave of prolonged and intense sociopolitical instability.” basically as living standards erode due to too much labour, this percolates into the middle class, and you wind up with basically two classes: the elites, doing well, and the rest, struggling. As a consequence, there is a lot of competition to get into the elite which becomes overloaded and causes problems as a result. It’s argued this has already happened in China, hence the increasing competition over private tuition and degrees overseas, the amount of investment in offspring etc. It’s founded in data science which might have an appeal to the board; here’s Turchin’s analysis of Trump and Biden - www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/17/were-on-the-verge-of-breakdown-a-data-scientists-take-on-trump-and-biden |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 15:53:01 GMT
Hi - I'd say it very much arrived already and has been evident for some time in both the UK and US with the off-shoring of mc jobs in sectors such as finance, HR admin and IT etc. It was undoubtedly a factor in Trump's rise and why the blue areas of England and Wales swung behind Brexit. I have always thought the usual economist's assertion/argument that the economy on the future will create new types of jobs that will compensate for those lost, as more an article of faith than a law of nature. The difference is that the middle class has largely accepted this immigrant competition with resignation and pragmatism instead of taking to the streets demanding an end to Indian immigration or whatever. How much is that really the case currently though? They might accept foreign employees lower down the scale, but feel secure because they’ve erected barriers to make it harder for foreign people to prosper further. Whether because not recognising foreign qualifications, or more informal means. Have come across research recently of how foreign people and indeed women too are leaving science and engineering careers because can’t get past the bottom rungs of the ladder. Also, another bit of research about how often professors tend to appoint people like them rather than foreign folk. And these are supposed to be liberal institutions. (There is also the data concerning immigration I posted a couple of years back, where second generation immigrants seemed to do less well than their parents, another potential example of being held back). It might be that the middle class may gradually be more subject to competition in future however. How will they feel about globalism then? |
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Post by jimjam on Dec 29, 2021 16:08:44 GMT
Charles from your reply to Colin, ''From what you say, it is pretty clear that from an economic point of view taxes need to go up''
I don't expect Colin to agree with me but why can't borrowing increase in the next 2 years or so beyond the current plans?
I would not want Austerity#2; and Labour need to be more assertive this time imo.
One does not have support MMT to think that we should not be cutting demand as we enter a downturn.
I would like to see Treasury rules changed to make most Education spending investment rather than current; this should see rules holding over the cycle.
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Post by davwel on Dec 29, 2021 16:09:47 GMT
@ hireton, moby
The TT figures out this afternoon might just prick the consciences a little of Johnson and those uncaring Tory hard-line MPs.
Hospital admissions up by 80 today, now 679 in hospital due to CV, compared with 536 last Wednesday. And new cases are an incredible 15849 today compared to 5967 last Wednesday. The long-running smoothed line is up very sharply, reflecting the record cases reported almost every recent day.
Eight days ago, my wife (especially shielded) had her two-monthly consultation with her Aberdeen ARI consultant. He advised her that her 3rd jab/booster vaccine, given on Oct 6th, was rapidly losing its effectiveness being 10-weeks old, so she had to make sure she had her FOURTH jab in early January - "Chase them if they don`t send you a fourth jab appointment".
It`s a worrying time for all of us 70-plus year-olds.
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Post by tancred on Dec 29, 2021 16:12:44 GMT
The difference is that the middle class has largely accepted this immigrant competition with resignation and pragmatism instead of taking to the streets demanding an end to Indian immigration or whatever. How much is that really the case though? They might accept foreign employees lower down the scale, but feel secure because they’ve erected barriers to make it harder for foreign people to prosper further. Whether because not recognising foreign qualifications, or more informal means. Have come across research recently of how foreign people and indeed women too are leaving science and engineering careers because can’t get past the bottom rungs of the ladder. Also, another bit of research about how often professors tend to appoint people like them rather than foreign folk. And these are supposed to be liberal institutions. (There is also the data concerning immigration I posted a couple of years back, where second generation immigrants seemed to do less well than their parents, another potential example of being held back). There is something called 'unconscious bias' in the way we treat colleagues and consider people for promotion etc. There is a natural human tendency to favour people who are like us, speak like us, look like us and have similar habits and interests as us - it's just human nature. Many corporate giants have introduced training to combat unconscious bias and this is helping to mitigate this tendency, though it's hard to completely eradicate. The problem is that the management structure in many organisations operates in a cliquey environment - those who are in the 'in crowd' will always do better than those who lie outside of it, no matter how good they are at their jobs. In many ways getting on depends on who you know instead of what you know. I don't think that this is as big an issue in IT as it is in other industries - many senior managers in IT come from offshore backgrounds these days. I would think that in older, more traditional professions, such as law, this is more of an issue. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 16:15:51 GMT
How much is that really the case though? They might accept foreign employees lower down the scale, but feel secure because they’ve erected barriers to make it harder for foreign people to prosper further. Whether because not recognising foreign qualifications, or more informal means. Have come across research recently of how foreign people and indeed women too are leaving science and engineering careers because can’t get past the bottom rungs of the ladder. Also, another bit of research about how often professors tend to appoint people like them rather than foreign folk. And these are supposed to be liberal institutions. (There is also the data concerning immigration I posted a couple of years back, where second generation immigrants seemed to do less well than their parents, another potential example of being held back). There is something called 'unconscious bias' in the way we treat colleagues and consider people for promotion etc. There is a natural human tendency to favour people who are like us, speak like us, look like us and have similar habits and interests as us - it's just human nature. Many corporate giants have introduced training to combat unconscious bias and this is helping to mitigate this tendency, though it's hard to completely eradicate. The problem is that the management structure in many organisations operates in a cliquey environment - those who are in the 'in crowd' will always do better than those who lie outside of it, no matter how good they are at their jobs. In many ways getting on depends on who you know instead of what you know. I don't think that this is as big an issue in IT as it is in other industries - many senior managers in IT come from offshore backgrounds these days. I would think that in older, more traditional professions, such as law, this is more of an issue. I would agree that there can be unconscious bias, indeed I’ve given examples before, of research into how people unconsciously tend to see foreign people more as objects, and prefer friends who are genetically more similar to them, but there is also the question of a more conscious bias. Where keeping immigrants from rising up the ladder might not always be so unconscious. |
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