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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 10:49:02 GMT
Also… most people on this board, are not professors in political science or polling stats, yet that does not bar them from commenting on politics or even criticising the polling methodology etc. but when it’s science and tech., somehow even those who studied it, or researched it, or used it daily in their careers, are considered delusional if they discuss it. They are a nice couple in your Avatar Carfrew ( is that the right word?) Anyone we might know-are they relatives of yours ?  |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 10:50:27 GMT
Also… most people on this board, are not professors in political science or polling stats, yet that does not bar them from commenting on politics or even criticising the polling methodology etc. but when it’s science and tech., somehow even those who studied it, or researched it, or used it daily in their careers, are considered delusional if they discuss it. They are a nice couple in your Avatar Carfrew ( is that the right word?) Anyone we might know-are they relatives of yours ? oh Jesus. (Better change the avatar quick!…) |
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Post by Danny on Dec 29, 2021 10:57:46 GMT
nor the fact that he screwed Christmas last year because he refused to take Sage's advice on a pre Christmas circuit breaker,... Alec, all that would have happened if we had implement more restrictions earlier is that we would have lived under those restrictions for longer. restrictions DO NOT END COVID OUTBREAKS. They EXTEND them! Thats been the story of this entire epidemic. We deliberately made it last longer because of those restrictions, which ultimately didnt work. So basically you agree that the vaccination policy failed. We have no option but to return to plan A, managed spread. Better had we done it last spring/summer. Better yet the year before as per the original centuries tried and tested epidemic plan. An interesting anecdote. A mate is invited to a new party, but his partner is positive. Others attending are potentially exposed already. So the question is, cancel or continue. Another asked said they fancied an extra week's christmas holiday, so bring it on! I wonder how many are currently thinking the same? |
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Post by tancred on Dec 29, 2021 10:58:32 GMT
tancred Interesting that you are in favour of (or at least accept) independence for places where they are ethnically different from the dominant population. Ethnic nationalism, such as that, is widely considered to be the province of racial purists and similar far right groups. For EU Unionists, such as myself, one of the great benefits of the EU is that it accommodates a wide range of political entities, whose population prefers not to be constrained in an incorporating union where all power lies outwith that polity, but agree to cede some of their sovereignty to a wider confederation. Ethnic nationalism is not solely the domain of the far-right, although the far-right has hijacked the issue for its own political purposes. Ethnic unity is simply one of the cornerstones of what a nation is defined as - though in some cases, such as Switzerland, an ethnically diverse state can thrive with devolution and localism. For this reason I would grant Scotland (and also Wales if it wants) maximum devolution, so that it can continue to exist as a crown dependency in the same way as IOM, CI and Gibraltar. This is the limit of what I would grant. I am a European unionist and also class myself as a European nationalist. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 11:02:21 GMT
They are a nice couple in your Avatar Carfrew ( is that the right word?) Anyone we might know-are they relatives of yours ? oh Jesus. (Better change the avatar quick!…) Oh I know him. Isn't he helping Zuckerberg's World Thought Control project? Used to be a Liberal ?? |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 11:04:06 GMT
oh Jesus. (Better change the avatar quick!…) Oh I know him. Isn't he helping Zuckerberg's World Thought Control project? Used to be a Liberal ?? Well it’s a broad church Col. |
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Post by tancred on Dec 29, 2021 11:06:08 GMT
tancred I generally agree. The inflationary shock that will hit the global economy is going to be pretty painful. The purchasing power of the £,$ or € in your pocket is going to be severely tested. It takes a lot of effort to squeeze inflation out of the economy, and the course of treatment is painful. I'm not sure that there is any treatment out there that could work. Most of the inflationary pressures we are seeing are cost-push rather than demand-pull, so even higher interest rates are unlikely to make much of an impact. This inflation will eventually slow and settle down of its own accord, but there will be a lot of pain until then. Pensioners with fully index linked pensions will be OK, but there will be pain for the rest of us. We have had relatively cheap fuel costs for decades and this is going to end - it will have a massive psychological impact as much as a financial one. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 11:11:37 GMT
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 11:26:34 GMT
from the article… “Along with his Hawaii estate, Zuckerberg owns a total of roughly 1,400 acres and 10 houses in Palo Alto, San Francisco and Lake Tahoe, amounting to a $320m real estate portfolio.”curiously, Musk has started selling properties. Says it’s crazy when he hardly lives in them and someone else could make better use. He was tempted to get really into designing his own home, but thinks he should spend his time getting us to Mars. (then maybe Zuckerberg can buy that up too…) |
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 29, 2021 11:29:34 GMT
Also… most people on this board, are not professors in political science or polling stats, yet that does not bar them from commenting on politics or even criticising the polling methodology etc. but when it’s science and tech., somehow even those who studied it, or researched it, or used it daily in their careers, are considered delusional if they discuss it. Hmmmm, I agree to a degree, but this site is set up under the premise, at least I think it still is, that it provides a forum for the non partisan discussion of opinion polls. Therefore it's very purpose, as I interpret anyway, is to provide layman political enthusiasts like me the harmful opportunity to air my often unsubstantiated and ill informed views on politics political opinion polling. That's the fun of the fair. Oh, and of course the odd baleful rant about sport!😁🤣 Not sure about the epidemiological excursions though. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 29, 2021 11:32:52 GMT
Apologies for the various grammatical and spelling typos in above post. On the bloody mobile keypad. Currently sitting in a park in Droitwich sipping a coffee in near Mediterranean temperatures. A weird experience. Just need some daffodils to appear!
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Post by Danny on Dec 29, 2021 11:36:25 GMT
tancred I generally agree. The inflationary shock that will hit the global economy is going to be pretty painful. The purchasing power of the £,$ or € in your pocket is going to be severely tested. It takes a lot of effort to squeeze inflation out of the economy, and the course of treatment is painful. I'm not sure that there is any treatment out there that could work. Most of the inflationary pressures we are seeing are cost-push rather than demand-pull, so even higher interest rates are unlikely to make much of an impact. This inflation will eventually slow and settle down of its own accord, Hmm. We seem to have engineered a re-run of the energy shocks of the 70s when the arabs achieved the ability to monopolise oil production and therefore held the world to ransom. Which created a massive shift of wealth to them.
This time we have managed to combine a government effort to prevent development of new fossil fuel energy sources, so as to force consumers to shift to remewables, with covid which created a year's dip in demand further discouraging development...followed by a resurgence of demand.
By policy we have created an energy supply crisis. I dont see government doing anything at all to resolve it. Subsidising anyone isnt going to resolve the problem of reducing demand or increasing supply. If anything, it just keeps the inflationary pressure going. If prices rise, then demand tends to fall. Right now most people are going to complain, not turn down their heating.
This has hardly started, because energy costs feed through to virtually everything we manufacture and then buy. If energy prices drop again then it might fade out, but is there any real reason to think they will? Is government about to launch a massive drive to increase renewables production? No? Is it going to open up more oil fields or gas fields? No? Is it going to ration energy?
We are currently in a crisis engineered by government. It keeps relying upon markets to solve problems. Markets love problems of shortages because they can make more money!
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Post by guymonde on Dec 29, 2021 11:46:31 GMT
"Most of the inflationary pressures we are seeing are cost-push rather than demand-pull" I don't have expertise on this but my understanding about what drives the cost-push for energy is not to do with increased costs of extraction or delivery nor (as you acknowledge) increasing demand. My impression is that this is largely down to political manoeuvrings, partly linked to Putin, but also perhaps to reduced output from Texas and maybe carbon taxes. Doesn't make it susceptible to interest rates, of course, but perhaps to some extent at least driven by political choices rather than underlying economic factors so potentially addressed by political choices also. There is of course a strong case from a climate perspective to welcome increased energy costs, except that of course they will hit the "elderly, poor, sick and disabled" -as barbara puts it disproportionately, though pete avers that we gave up concern for them long ago. Not me, I didn't. An immediate change from the Osborne Nuspeak "National Living Wage" to the real independently-assessed Living Wage, together with appropriate hikes in Universal Credit would address this problem. However such policies are for the birds under this regime. By the way, received wisdom in London, which includes some of the most deprived areas in the country including some very close to me, is that these areas will be punished for having rich neighbours in a Levelling Down agenda (rich neighbours will be scarcely inconvenienced) |
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Post by guymonde on Dec 29, 2021 11:49:54 GMT
@danny
"shift to remewables" Perhaps we should get cats working hamster wheels to make up the deficit.
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 11:54:12 GMT
Also… most people on this board, are not professors in political science or polling stats, yet that does not bar them from commenting on politics or even criticising the polling methodology etc. but when it’s science and tech., somehow even those who studied it, or researched it, or used it daily in their careers, are considered delusional if they discuss it. Hmmmm, I agree to a degree, but this site is set up under the premise, at least I think it still is, that it provides a forum for the non partisan discussion of opinion polls. Therefore it's very purpose, as I interpret anyway, is to provide layman political enthusiasts like me the harmful opportunity to air my often unsubstantiated and ill informed views on politics political opinion polling. That's the fun of the fair. Oh, and of course the odd baleful rant about sport!😁🤣 Not sure about the epidemiological excursions though. i wasn’t campaigning for discussions over Covid to have precedence over polling. I was pointing out the inconsistency where people might conclude it’s ok to comment if not an expert when it suits them, but not when it’s something they care less to discuss. (And also that even if some people do only wish to entertain experts in some domains they might consider marginal, it doesn’t make it pointless for others to exchange and challenge ideas in those domains when not an expert). (A fair amount of the critique anyway, is not necessarily about the experts but political choices) the epidemiological excursions actually are rather relevant to polling, though the link maybe hasn’t been made that obvious. But the kind of errors epidemiologists have made, mirror some polling analysis errors, and even sports punditry. (and it applies to synths as well) Which maybe shouldn’t be a surprise, people drawn to problems that bear some similarity. |
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Post by Old Southendian on Dec 29, 2021 11:58:20 GMT
tancred Interesting that you are in favour of (or at least accept) independence for places where they are ethnically different from the dominant population. Ethnic nationalism, such as that, is widely considered to be the province of racial purists and similar far right groups. For EU Unionists, such as myself, one of the great benefits of the EU is that it accommodates a wide range of political entities, whose population prefers not to be constrained in an incorporating union where all power lies outwith that polity, but agree to cede some of their sovereignty to a wider confederation. Ethnic nationalism is not solely the domain of the far-right, although the far-right has hijacked the issue for its own political purposes. Ethnic unity is simply one of the cornerstones of what a nation is defined as - though in some cases, such as Switzerland, an ethnically diverse state can thrive with devolution and localism. For this reason I would grant Scotland (and also Wales if it wants) maximum devolution, so that it can continue to exist as a crown dependency in the same way as IOM, CI and Gibraltar. This is the limit of what I would grant. I am a European unionist and also class myself as a European nationalist. Funnily enough, I immediately also thought of Switzerland when reading ON's post. Switzerland has always puzzled me, but I guess you have to study the history more carefully than I ever had to understand how it came to be as it currently is. It defies conventional logic in so many ways, different cultures, different languages, and if you think that it makes sense geographically, then take a closer look at the borders. Yes, some of them coincide with the highest watersheds of the Alps, but by no means do all of the borders work that way, and the Northern border is just the usual mismash of history. And yet it works so well, with a highly tiered local and national democratic system. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 29, 2021 12:45:43 GMT
Funnily enough, I immediately also thought of Switzerland when reading ON's post. Switzerland has always puzzled me, but I guess you have to study the history more carefully than I ever had to understand how it came to be as it currently is. It defies conventional logic in so many ways, different cultures, different languages, and if you think that it makes sense geographically, then take a closer look at the borders. Yes, some of them coincide with the highest watersheds of the Alps, but by no means do all of the borders work that way, and the Northern border is just the usual mismash of history. And yet it works so well, with a highly tiered local and national democratic system. Of course, Harry Lime in Graham Greene's "The Third Man" would not have agreed with you: “You know what the fellow said – in Italy, for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace – and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock.” I just re-watched the film over Christmas and was reminded of just how great a film it is. It is one of those rare films that could only be made in black-and-white because colour would have spoiled the very greyness of just post-war Vienna (I have been on the big wheel at the Prater). |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 29, 2021 12:47:58 GMT
Currently sitting in a park in Droitwich sipping a coffee in near Mediterranean temperatures. A weird experience. Just need some daffodils to appear! Daffodils in Droitwich in December are deemed deniable. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 29, 2021 12:57:28 GMT
Currently sitting in a park in Droitwich sipping a coffee in near Mediterranean temperatures. A weird experience. Just need some daffodils to appear! Daffodils in Droitwich in December are deemed deniable. Astonishing and alluring alliteration, my good man.😂👍 |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 13:11:32 GMT
The current inflation is largely pushed by the reduced output in general (so not just energy output - the latter as guymonde says is very highly influenced by politics) and firms attempt to compensate the lost revenue (the German car industry is now behind the planned output by about 300,000 cars and they don't have the capacity to catch up - it is probably common in other industries, but in the last couple of weeks before Christmas I was working on that sector, and had no time to keep up with the information on other sectors). Higher interest rates (I don't mean a quarter of a percent) for a while could even increase inflation (debt financing went up in the industries of the OECD countries). |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 13:17:10 GMT
If the Resolution Foundation is correct with their estimates, there will have to be some government intervention (probably on the demand side, I don't think they have the channels/means for intervention on the supply side).
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 29, 2021 13:19:04 GMT
Daffodils in Droitwich in December are deemed deniable. Astonishing and alluring alliteration, my good man.😂👍 I should've gone on to say - Daffodils in Droitwich in December are deemed deniable, But Bromsgrove botanists believe. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 13:22:35 GMT
Funnily enough, I immediately also thought of Switzerland when reading ON's post. Switzerland has always puzzled me, but I guess you have to study the history more carefully than I ever had to understand how it came to be as it currently is. It defies conventional logic in so many ways, different cultures, different languages, and if you think that it makes sense geographically, then take a closer look at the borders. Yes, some of them coincide with the highest watersheds of the Alps, but by no means do all of the borders work that way, and the Northern border is just the usual mismash of history. And yet it works so well, with a highly tiered local and national democratic system. Of course, Harry Lime in Graham Greene's "The Third Man" would not have agreed with you: “You know what the fellow said – in Italy, for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace – and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock.” I just re-watched the film over Christmas and was reminded of just how great a film it is. It is one of those rare films that could only be made in black-and-white because colour would have spoiled the very greyness of just post-war Vienna (I have been on the big wheel at the Prater). But the cuckoo clock comes from the Black Forest and not Switzerland  |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 29, 2021 13:29:23 GMT
But the cuckoo clock comes from the Black Forest and not Switzerland Bloody experts - ruin a good story   |
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Post by shevii on Dec 29, 2021 13:34:13 GMT
What I find immensely irritating on energy prices is that having long made the decision to be on renewables, and probably paying a premium to do so over the years, my bill still goes up massively on electricity because the price of renewables rises as the supply/demand goes up for electricity from any source. It's like a sub plot on the already known theme of getting your renewable electricity from a company that isn't 100% renewable meaning they just push your renewable use into their overall strategy and then claim they have a high percentage of renewables. I'd never considered that this would extend to 100% renewable companies as well who do not generate their own electricity and are therefore reliant on market prices.
I know there are a few local projects that have been set up to own their own renewable generation and maybe those are now benefiting from more stable prices but still feel like a bit of a mug here when I should be into a period of smug liberal superiority :-)
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 13:44:35 GMT
If the Resolution Foundation is correct with their estimates, there will have to be some government intervention (probably on the demand side, I don't think they have the channels/means for intervention on the supply side). On Energy prices-which is by far the biggest element of their £1200 pa col increase-definitely @laszlo The problem is , by what means-and for how long. RF seems to agree with the Times article I quoted earlier-that allowing a large cap rise and compensating consumers through the mish mash of welfare benefits could leave some unreached & would be administratively complex. To intervene in the cap rise by compensating suppliers is the other option. How politically acceptable is it. And the whole issue has even RF saying "Public subsidies cannot be the permanent answer to higher energy prices, so any move should be temporary," On the proposed NI increase , plus CT of course, RF drops some intriguing suggestions :- "There is a broad consensus that taxes will generally be rising in the years ahead, given the long-term impact of the pandemic as well as pre-existing, structural fiscal pressures. But it is fair to assume that the Treasury did not envision these tax rises taking place at exactly the same time as a new coronavirus wave, falling real wages and huge energy price rises." and "It is possible that the combination of Conservative MPs opposed to any tax rises, and a Labour Party that thinks NI rises are unfair, could together cause the NI rise to be delayed, given the wider cost of living pressures in 2022." More potential for Starmer here -without doubt. And problems for Sunak. |
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Post by Old Southendian on Dec 29, 2021 13:51:29 GMT
Of course, Harry Lime in Graham Greene's "The Third Man" would not have agreed with you: “You know what the fellow said – in Italy, for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace – and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock.” I just re-watched the film over Christmas and was reminded of just how great a film it is. It is one of those rare films that could only be made in black-and-white because colour would have spoiled the very greyness of just post-war Vienna (I have been on the big wheel at the Prater). But the cuckoo clock comes from the Black Forest and not Switzerland Another bit of history I didn't know, thanks.
As for "The Third Man", I watched it again as well as "Citizen Kane" last Christmas with the family, my children had never seen them. It's funny how tastes change over the years, "The Third Man" made a big impression on me many years ago, with some scenes (obviously the big wheel, and the final parting shots) really sticking with me. But watching it again, I found myself a bit bored with much of the rest. On the other hand, I found "Citizen Kane" a bit of a bore many years ago, and really enjoyed it this time. I think some of the themes of "Citizen Kane" resonate better with the times of Trump, and I found it astounding how much of the commentary on media and politics is still so relevant. I think I also have a bit more of a handle on the ennuies of middle age and growing older, rather different to watching it as a teen.
Is this relevant to polling, not really, but I'd recommend "Citizen Kane" to anyone interested in politics.
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Post by hireton on Dec 29, 2021 13:57:05 GMT
tancred Interesting that you are in favour of (or at least accept) independence for places where they are ethnically different from the dominant population. Ethnic nationalism, such as that, is widely considered to be the province of racial purists and similar far right groups. For EU Unionists, such as myself, one of the great benefits of the EU is that it accommodates a wide range of political entities, whose population prefers not to be constrained in an incorporating union where all power lies outwith that polity, but agree to cede some of their sovereignty to a wider confederation. Ethnic nationalism is not solely the domain of the far-right, although the far-right has hijacked the issue for its own political purposes. Ethnic unity is simply one of the cornerstones of what a nation is defined as - though in some cases, such as Switzerland, an ethnically diverse state can thrive with devolution and localism. For this reason I would grant Scotland (and also Wales if it wants) maximum devolution, so that it can continue to exist as a crown dependency in the same way as IOM, CI and Gibraltar. This is the limit of what I would grant. I am a European unionist and also class myself as a European nationalist. That's interesting use of words: "grant', "dependency" "crown" etc All of which raises the questions who or what is doing the "granting", what legitimacy do they have to do so, what is the nature of this new "dependency' status and who decides ,as you have, that Scotland is "better off"in the UK? |
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Post by charles on Dec 29, 2021 14:27:10 GMT
colin From what you say, it is pretty clear that from an economic point of view taxes need to go up, while much of the conservative party wants them to go down. This is clearly a problem for Sunak and should be an opportunity for Reeves and Starmer. As you point out, the latter do not want to raise NI as they consider that unfair. I agree with all of that but am interested in how you think they should go about raising taxes (if that is what you do think) without severely dmmaging their electoral prospects. I can see that they have to do this one way or another, but am not clear what effective ways are available to them.
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 14:28:10 GMT
What I find immensely irritating on energy prices is that having long made the decision to be on renewables, and probably paying a premium to do so over the years, my bill still goes up massively on electricity because the price of renewables rises as the supply/demand goes up for electricity from any source. It's like a sub plot on the already known theme of getting your renewable electricity from a company that isn't 100% renewable meaning they just push your renewable use into their overall strategy and then claim they have a high percentage of renewables. I'd never considered that this would extend to 100% renewable companies as well who do not generate their own electricity and are therefore reliant on market prices. I know there are a few local projects that have been set up to own their own renewable generation and maybe those are now benefiting from more stable prices but still feel like a bit of a mug here when I should be into a period of smug liberal superiority :-) which raises the question, is there more in store? I do find myself wondering to what extent it is the middle classes’ turn to experience what the working classes experienced. That having reduced the power of the working class, it’s now the middle classes turn to experience the ravages of globalism and capital etc. They might have been ok with it when gaining from house prices hikes and CGT cuts, with careers to some extent protected from the kind of competition experienced by the working classes. But gradually, is it coming for the middle classes too? Hearing the chants of Lecturers demonstrating nearby because of the casualisation of the workforce. Over the years I’ve seen several domains haemorrhage jobs, in music education and the arts. Now one wonders as to the future of HE if students begin to ditch degrees for apprenticeships, and it becomes easier for a few people to deliver content online to so many. All those jobs in marketing, accounts, Human Resources etc... how many will survive, or be increasingly undercut by foreign competition? And prices of essentials rising to the point even more of the middle class feel it? |
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