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Post by tancred on Dec 29, 2021 0:47:16 GMT
An interesting suggestion from you that somebody who supports Scottish independence above anything else would have been attracted to Hitler and fascism. Sorry, but thats not what I have been saying in the context of today’s politics - I agree with ON, the current form of Scottish nationalism is on the polar opposite side of the spectrum to fascism. What I was doing was more attempting to ‘correct' was the perception of the political environment of the '20's and 30's, and my usual point of flagging ON's bias in relation to the UK/Britishness (which he legitimately counters in regards to myself). @ ON - oh my support for the continuation of the Union is virtually 100% emotional - and I assume your support for independence is similarly emotional in essence. I certainly understand the frustration of many in Scotland with Westminster politics, especially regarding the undemocratic FPTP electoral system which has cemented Tory dominance for so long. But I am utterly opposed to the break up of the UK; in fact I would be happy if the Republic of Ireland would re-join it (a distant dream, I admit). These islands are too small for any break-up of our British nation. Scotland has autonomy and I would grant it maximum autonomy but independence is a step too far. That said, there will have to be a second referendum at some point, and I believe it will happen when the current Conservative government has been ejected. I look forward to a further defeat for the nationalists and the final defeat of this movement once and for all. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Dec 29, 2021 0:48:56 GMT
Lululemon
"I assume your support for independence is similarly emotional in essence."
No. Of course there is an identity element. I was brought up as a Scot in Scotland, aware of Scotland's history as a separate state (no matter how bad the Walter Scott version of history that we were taught was!) At school in the 1950s I was also taught the glories of the British Empire, and the brutality of those in India who dared to rebel against beneficent British rule. That early indoctrination might well have made me (as it did many of my generation) content with the former Scottish Unionist Party stance of Scotland being best served by being part of the wider union that was the UK.
But, at 15 I heard the Scottish Liberal Party politician John Bannerman speak. I asked why Scotland couldn't be equally well served by legislation passed at Westminster and he explained that, on simple grounds of population imbalance, Westminster could never deliver adequate consideration of Scots matters - so I became an advocate of a Federal UK. Then the EEC developed, and it became increasingly obvious that a much better governance system would arise from Scotland being an independent member of that (and the subsequent EU). That was confirmed by a variety of governments at Westminster inappropriately imposing policies developed for English needs in Scotland.
I am well aware of the common cultural and historical factors that the UK share, but these largely also apply to Ireland, Mann and the CI, so I have a cultural affinity with all in "These Emerald Islands", but that does not require a wide variety of measures being determined by Westminster - and that especially applies to losing my EU citizenship, nuclear weapons being based across the firth from me, and the increasing centralisation of power in Downing St.
There is, of course, an emotional element but also 60 years of thinking about the best governance structures for Scotland.
To wish to have governance structures based on an emotional response seems to me an inappropriate way to approach consideration of practicalities.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Dec 29, 2021 1:00:43 GMT
tancred
"These islands are too small for any break-up of our British nation"
Obviously there is a "British nation". It consists of those who consider themselves to belong to it, of which you are clearly one.
In the same way, there is an "Indonesian nation", which has a similar composition. Unfortunately, they insisted on including the residents of East Timor, who did not share that identity. Presumably, you consider that East Timor should not have become independent, but just accepted the identity they were told to have?
As for those damn Norwegians who decided that having their foreign policy decided by the Swedish Crown in Sweden's interests should not have been permitted to opt to break that link?
Let's not even consider the horrors of the Baltic States choosing to reject being part of the Soviet Union?
Why are you not demanding that Mann and the CI are incorporated into the UK?
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Post by statgeek on Dec 29, 2021 2:20:33 GMT
Can I suggest the following alternative names for the posting ranks?  reserved chatty loquacious garrulous ubiquitous How about: Introvert Chilled Normal Gregarious Spammer |
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Post by moby on Dec 29, 2021 4:04:50 GMT
In regard to Plaid, one of my closest freinds since college has when living in Wales voted Plaid, and when in England voted Labour. I agree with her on virtually everything apart form the issue of keeping the UK intact. I think brexit and the ascendancy of Johnson has changed things in Wales quite a lot. Westminster is seen as remote and irrelevant to many. Welsh Labour is therefore distancing itself from Westminster in order to contain very strong anti Union sentiments and interestingly has recently agreed a governing pact with Plaid. English nationalists rejected the EU saying it was undemocratic and unrepresentative. You'll not be surprised that many in Scotland and Wales are now using those very same arguments to reject the Union. Starmer needs to find a way of making Westminster relevant to Wales because quite frankly economically speaking Wales doesn't seem to get much out of being in the Union considering we always seem to be in a competition with the NE for being the poorest part of the UK. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 5:08:23 GMT
In regard to Plaid, one of my closest freinds since college has when living in Wales voted Plaid, and when in England voted Labour. I agree with her on virtually everything apart form the issue of keeping the UK intact. I think brexit and the ascendancy of Johnson and has changed things in Wales quite a lot. Westminister is seen as remote and irrelevant. Welsh Labour is therefore distancing itself from Westminster in order to contain very strong anti Union sentiments. English nationalists rejected the EU saying it was undemocratic and unrepresentative. You'll not be surprised that many in Scotland and Wales are using those very same arguments to reject the Union. Starmer needs to find a way of making Westminister relevant to Wales because quite frankly economically speaking Wales doesn't seem to get much out of being in the Union. Any facts to substantiate your claim that 'economically speaking Wales doesn't seem to get much out of being in the Union' ? I'll offer up ONS data that show Wales is second only to NI as a deficit in Net fiscal balance per head by country and region, FYE 2020 (Fig 2)
www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinances/financialyearending2020
Not quite the political and economic baggage of NI or Scotland (NI more expensive, Scotland more politically not wishing to be part of UK) but if Wales wants to Leave.UK (and polling suggests they don't) then 'Fine by me'.
Drakeford might be trying to ape Sturgeon and SNP 'success' in Scotland by trying to frame 'Westminster/England' as the enemy thwarting their nationalistic 'whatever' (not my polity) and that is an issue for Starmer-LAB if/when Starmer becomes PM but in fairness to the SNATS then Scotland could be the land of 'wind of hydrogen' and potentially be an economic success post independence but Wales (like the People's Socialist Republics of Liverpool and Manchester) is an economic and political burden to rUK and so as an ENAT (SEAL IT) then if Wales wants to become Independent then 'bon chance'.
NB I'd be OK with Wales or the PSR of Liverpool or Manchester staying part of rUK and IMO 'level up' is about making them perform (not charity or 'equality of outcome' but some help WRT to 'equality of opportunity' given SE, Anglia and London (SEAL) are not an Independent Territory (IT) and would very unlikely ever become one). However if any part of the 'baggage' outwith SEAL IT wishes to Leave.UK then 'bon chance' and Sayonara/Adios (not au revoir). 'Rightsizing' the former British Empire is 'unfinished business' and those who wish to Leave.UK should IMO be allowed/encouraged to see if the 'grass is greener' with the full understanding that if you want to Rejoin.UK then you Rejoin as equals (eg end the Barnett formula and since the NATS are generally EU luvvies then introduce the equivalent of a Stability and Growth Pact that means devolved nations can't run the huge budget deficits that UK/Westminster currently permit) |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 6:05:37 GMT
Plenty of names for Leave.EU folks (I personally like 'Little Englander' as an ENAT and 'gammon' is respeck but have heard most of the others including being called a 'C.U. Next Thursday' at the doorstep in EURef'16, EP'15/19 and GE'19, not that I bovvered to see those types of Friday to gloat about the Thursday result of course) and SNATs are sometimes referred to as 'Bravehearts' but do WNATs have a name? PC has more relevant salience with most folks as 'Politically Correct' and best not to mention sheep so what to call WNATs? Way back even before OLDNAT was born then Llywelyn ap Gruffudd was perhaps the WNATS last hope, and someone who at least died a noble death, but he doesn't seem to be getting much interest WRT to making a film about that defeat even if the actor offering himself up for the role is pretty dishy. Perhaps even Holywood couldn't give that the 'Holyrood' treatment in a modern day distortion of the truth? www.walesonline.co.uk/lifestyle/showbiz/matthew-rhys-wants-make-welsh-4279617Maybe Drakeford with Price bringing up his rear can repel the vile Little Englanders and reclaim Welsh as the land of.... (answers of a postcode[1]). Bon chance and adios if/when the Welsh decide to Leave.UK [1] Shite weather but pretty good Mountain Biking is how I see Wales but no need for Wales to be part of my polity for the collective to visit Wales as 'tourists' if they become iWales and Leave.UK and whatever the new Welsh currency would be, would probably make the (mediocre but improving) beer a lot cheaper in iWales  |
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Post by moby on Dec 29, 2021 6:44:29 GMT
I think brexit and the ascendancy of Johnson and has changed things in Wales quite a lot. Westminister is seen as remote and irrelevant. Welsh Labour is therefore distancing itself from Westminster in order to contain very strong anti Union sentiments. English nationalists rejected the EU saying it was undemocratic and unrepresentative. You'll not be surprised that many in Scotland and Wales are using those very same arguments to reject the Union. Starmer needs to find a way of making Westminister relevant to Wales because quite frankly economically speaking Wales doesn't seem to get much out of being in the Union. I'll offer up ONS data that show Wales is second only to NI as a deficit in Net fiscal balance per head by country and region, FYE 2020 (Fig 2)
www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinances/financialyearending2020
Not quite the political and economic baggage of NI or Scotland (NI more expensive, Scotland more politically not wishing to be part of UK) but if Wales wants to Leave.UK (and polling suggests they don't) then 'Fine by me'.
Drakeford might be trying to ape Sturgeon and SNP 'success' in Scotland by trying to frame 'Westminster/England' as the enemy thwarting their nationalistic 'whatever' (not my polity) and that is an issue for Starmer-LAB if/when Starmer becomes PM but in fairness to the SNATS then Scotland could be the land of 'wind of hydrogen' and potentially be an economic success post independence but Wales (like the People's Socialist Republics of Liverpool and Manchester) is an economic and political burden to rUK and so as an ENAT (SEAL IT) then if Wales wants to become Independent then 'bon chance'.
NB I'd be OK with Wales or the PSR of Liverpool or Manchester staying part of rUK and IMO 'level up' is about making them perform (not charity or 'equality of outcome' but some help WRT to 'equality of opportunity' given SE, Anglia and London (SEAL) are not an Independent Territory (IT) and would very unlikely ever become one). However if any part of the 'baggage' outwith SEAL IT wishes to Leave.UK then 'bon chance' and Sayonara/Adios (not au revoir). 'Rightsizing' the former British Empire is 'unfinished business' and those who wish to Leave.UK should IMO be allowed/encouraged to see if the 'grass is greener' with the full understanding that if you want to Rejoin.UK then you Rejoin as equals (eg end the Barnett formula and since the NATS are generally EU luvvies then introduce the equivalent of a Stability and Growth Pact that means devolved nations can't run the huge budget deficits that UK/Westminster currently permit)I'll firstly qualify my answer by saying my post above is not necessarily completely what I believe, more a narrative I've picked up having moved back to Wales post retirement. Yes I would say there is evidence, some of it you give above and much else is available with a bit of research into say 'child poverty' in the UK. I acknowledge that you will use said evidence to demonstrate that Wales is an economic burden being supported by the rich south. My answer to that is the EU provided a much higher level of support with a refreshing absence of a patronising 'not my polity whatever' tone when support was given to the regions devastated by years of extraction economics to service the English empire. As for future 'levelling up', we'll see wont we! I wait with keen anticipation for all the new dosh coming to the valleys post brexit, post covid and post the economic new realities of rampant inflation. Perhaps Liz Truss has a plan for building a new Singapore to replace the port of Holyhead which is now totally bypassed by Eire? 'NB I'd be OK with Wales or the PSR of Liverpool or Manchester staying part of rUK and IMO 'level up' is about making them perform (not charity or 'equality of outcome' but some help WRT to 'equality of opportunity' given SE, Anglia and London (SEAL) are not an Independent Territory (IT) and would very unlikely ever become one). However if any part of the 'baggage' outwith SEAL IT wishes to Leave.UK then 'bon chance' and Sayonara/Adios (not au revoir).'
Well thank you for your offer of largesse from the rich south; like I said above we'll see what 'levelling up' actually means in reality in the coming months. I'm sure Johnson and Truss will be laser focussed on the needs of Wales. Being seen as 'baggage' however is probably not going to improve communication and it seems to me the Empires 'unfinished business' you cite actually seems to consist of turning the former empire into SE England; That doesn't seem to me to indicate a growing economy? are you sure Liz/Boris will be happy with such limited future ambitions. It will be like sort of ...starting all over again with English plans of conquest and castle building? That will take years Trev. We want the money now! and surely the expected massive post brexit boom we have been promised will be spent nearer to home this time, instead of on the glory of empire abroad? What's the point of sucking at the teat if its not producing milk anymore? |
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Post by moby on Dec 29, 2021 7:03:19 GMT
Plenty of names for Leave.EU folks (I personally like 'Little Englander' as an ENAT and 'gammon' is respeck but have heard most of the others including being called a 'C.U. Next Thursday' at the doorstep in EURef'16, EP'15/19 and GE'19, not that I bovvered to see those types of Friday to gloat about the Thursday result of course) and SNATs are sometimes referred to as 'Bravehearts' but do WNATs have a name? PC has more relevant salience with most folks as 'Politically Correct' and best not to mention sheep so what to call WNATs? Way back even before OLDNAT was born then Llywelyn ap Gruffudd was perhaps the WNATS last hope, and someone who at least died a noble death, but he doesn't seem to be getting much interest WRT to making a film about that defeat even if the actor offering himself up for the role is pretty dishy. Perhaps even Holywood couldn't give that the 'Holyrood' treatment in a modern day distortion of the truth? www.walesonline.co.uk/lifestyle/showbiz/matthew-rhys-wants-make-welsh-4279617Maybe Drakeford with Price bringing up his rear can repel the vile Little Englanders and reclaim Welsh as the land of.... (answers of a postcode[1]). Bon chance and adios if/when the Welsh decide to Leave.UK [1] Shite weather but pretty good Mountain Biking is how I see Wales but no need for Wales to be part of my polity for the collective to visit Wales as 'tourists' if they become iWales and Leave.UK and whatever the new Welsh currency would be, would probably make the (mediocre but improving) beer a lot cheaper in iWales I see my original post elicited all the usual patronising anti Welsh tropes, 'sheep', Wales as nothing, 'shite weather' being funded by rich southerner tourism blah blah.... I see you missed the one in which a tiny country of 3 million consistently beats a country of 60 million at one of the national sports though . Drakeford's narrative is gaining currency polling wise:- www.itv.com/news/wales/2021-12-20/tories-predicted-to-lose-eight-welsh-westminster-seats-in-latest-poll...perhaps your post above may give some indication why? Must admit I don't know how we'll survive without the leadership skills of Rob Roberts though! |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 29, 2021 7:46:32 GMT
PS Relevance for the main thread will be in the polling as folks have believed CON HMG were under reacting to Omicron (see various polling[2]) so if/when it turns out they were not then perhaps a small boost to CON VI (from some CON'19 DKs 'coming home'?) Best i can see there has only been a partial release of sage advice, and only where it supports the official line. In the media it has then been spun further, for example last summer sage said what happens next will depend how many people have already caught covid (not how many been vaccinated), and media and government picked on their worst case outcome from a spread of possibles which also included a very light ongoing disease which is much more what happened. Sage will say they covered their bets and told the government their best and worst estimates, and government decided what to plan for. I think in doing this they dodged their responsibility but they always expressly declined to make recommendations saying choice was for the government. And they operated as they had been instructed to do. Whereas in Sweden where the medics were wholly in charge they picked minimun restrictions and essentially stuck with herd immunity throughout (and got a better resut). Although Sweden seemed the outlier, they in fact are one of the few who stuck with what a year before had been the WHO and mainstream world plan of managed spread. The change was based upon adopting experimental science and poor early information. You might wonder how scientists involved in developing new testing and new vaccine production persuaded the world to adopt and mass purchase those methods. Government asked people who were creating these things if they believed in their effectiveness. Duh! So I agree government has been trying to position itself as resisting restrictions, but the reality is they chose plan B, suppression of covid, instead of plan A managed spread. They are still attempting suppression even when the current strain is the mildest so far in effect and also seem likely to be the best vaccine so far for creating immunity for the future. The man made vaccine we have used thus far has been safer when administered but rather less safe in terms of lasting ongoing protection. How public perception will turn out remains to be seen. The christmas party affair shows not that Downing street and central government carelessly broke the regulations but they simply didnt believe in them at all. Meaning they imposed on the nation something they didnt believe would make any difference. Thats immensely damaging if it gets out they called it right but did the wrong thing anyway. As I posted above, its only swing voters who count, not committed ones. So the question is how many people think the government trashed the UK for reasons of keeping their own jobs and so betrayed the fundamental purpose of government. While of course the official opposition did no better. It seems rather likely the population is now divided between those horrified that some arent vaccinated, but others who believe we have massively over vaccinated, over restricted and accomplished nothing by so doing except made maters worse. Even if the latter remain a minority,they are still the swing vote. However in the recent by-election the winning party was the one which cleary opposed further mandatory restictions. The public vote may already have passed the tipping point where this issue can oust encumbents. If there was an election right now where the debate concentrated on covid, libs would win a lot more seats on this basis. Most likely no overall control. Still think there is the possibility of an election this spring. The parliament act could be changed very quickly if government prioritised it or a vote of confidence engineeered. Its clear conservative advisors already believe they have operated the wrong policy, and no sign they ever believed in brexit being an economic success either. This continues to be a good moment to get out of government and leave the problems to labour, especially if it struggles with a minority government. 100 MPs voted against the government and for their own jobs on the issue of restrictions. The mood amongst con MPs may be they are better off securing their career futures than keeping minister in salaried positions. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 29, 2021 7:50:38 GMT
Tw
An interesting hagiography of the covid successes of the Spaffer regime.
While I do have some sympathy regarding the necessity or otherwise of lockdown measures and the widely pointless travel restrictions this appears to be a minority view point with the electorate particularly traditional aged Tory voters.
Irrespective of whether the government was entirely to blame or not , it wasn't of course mostly it just followed international group think.
But where it was entirely culpable was in the provision of tens of billions of our national wealth to provide services ,apps and ppe to its chums. Which could and should have been provisioned though our public health services with the best available providers not their mates .
The reason why this was done is rightly perceived as for personal and partisan gain. It's just another cog on the revolving wheel of sleaze and hypocrisy that passes for the regime's policy.
Similarly based on blind brexitanian stupidity we proceeded to move out of the transition period in the middle of the bloody pandemic.
The European union has offered a two year extension of the transition period any government that took its primary responsibility to act in the nation's best interest would have grabbed this offer with appropriate thanks.
But not this lot of chancers. Much of the destructive damage to goods and services and staff shortages of the last twelve months can be traced back to this act of galactic level cognitive dissonance.
Hopefully the regime will get the kicking in the ballots it so richly deserves.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 29, 2021 7:53:06 GMT
Danny
You have a valid point there.
Scientific opinion is much more nuanced it's primarily the media that chooses only to portray those elements of it that exaggerate the dangers.
It's a serious failing particularly in public service broadcasting.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 29, 2021 8:06:11 GMT
Irrespective of whether the government was entirely to blame or not , it wasn't of course mostly it just followed international group think. Oddly I think governments are not supposed to engage in group think but actually lead. Johnsons likes to pattern himself upon Churchill, who pushed his own views even where it pushed him out of office. Johnson admittedly caught covid at the critical moment the decision was made to swithc to suppression insted of managed spread, but thereafter he just crumbled and spouted whatever words were put in his mouth. Con have very obviously followed the public view. They also used propaganda to create that view, just as was done in the world war by both sides. All classic misinformation campaigns. But then the tested every step against public opinion before adopting it, not against effectiveness. We are now approaching end game on covid where it is becoming blindingly obvious further restrictions are not justifiable and con are engineering a turnaround. While on brexit they are still following the true faith line where more votes lie. Its not about stupidity but calculated measurements of the largest voting block, even in the face of mounting evidence its the wrong move. Until the tipping point is reached tht benefit lies elsehere. Then comes a credible climb down and U turn. Increasing reports of shortages of covid tests. The next step is likely to be a change of policy restricting availability of tests away from people without symptoms unless in care situation and further relaxation of pointless requirements to isolate. Likely abandonment of schools testing I would think in the new term. I see Javid is openly criticisng the Welsh government for restricting outdoor public gatherings. Its not just back benchers. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 29, 2021 8:40:20 GMT
Driving one of the younglings to work on the near deserted roads this morning when happened to listen to lbc audio daily mail with a smattering of James O'Brien and common sense but I like to listen to the callers, on the " news" element lbc features as its main item the cost of policing the insulate britain protests. In the space of 15 minutes the headline was reported three times. Firstly reported as costing £4.5 billion pounds, which led me to conclude that the Spaffer regime must have used their mates, secondly at the more realistic figure of £4.5 million and thirdly at £4.1 . By now it might be saying insulate britain paid to hold the protests.
Congratulations lbc you win the Liz Truss award for arithmetic and the Spaffer award for most egregious example of look squirelling.
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Post by alec on Dec 29, 2021 8:42:20 GMT
"We'll know soon but it's looking like SAGE were right only 1 out of 4 times (dismal track record) and since vaccine roll out then 100% success rate for CON HMG by ignoring the SAGE advice."
Quite laughable, from @tw here.
He clearly hasn't remembered the bizarrely stupid events of Jan 202, when Johnson sent children back to school for one day, saying that schools would not close, before closing schools, nor the fact that he screwed Christmas last year because he refused to take Sage's advice on a pre Christmas circuit breaker, nor the expense and impact on deaths of eat out to help out, nor the persistent high death rates from September into winter this year when our neighbours managed to live with covid without killing 150 of the citizens every day.
It's a bit like the insistence a few months ago that Brexit has worked because wages are going up, only to find that 2022 is going to be the big squeeze on families because of inflation.
You can make enything look good if you only consider half the story.
Daft, as ever.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 29, 2021 9:00:53 GMT
Alec
Education isn't a necessity in year one of brexitania.
It's rather a hindrance actually.
I would point out that the Greek government managed to permit eating out for the summer of 2020 while having one of the lowest death rates from covid in Europe, it's a bit more nuanced than that.
The major issue with the regime response was that normally it wasn't necessarily appropriate, they were hardly unique in this and because of the objective to earn dosh out of delivering it wasn't as effective as it could have been.With an inept regime based on loyalty to the brexitanian cult rather than competence what more could you expect.
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Post by alec on Dec 29, 2021 9:03:26 GMT
mercian - "If anyone cried wolf (in England) it was the scientists." That's the determined efforts of the Spectator and other right wing press outlets showing their effectiveness. Much of the modelling was in the end on the optimistic side - the initial death projections from Imperial were a significant undershoot of what we ended up with, for example, and those like Fraser Nelson who have attacked the scientists for being excessively gloomy have only succeeded in demonstrating their innumeracy and inability to understand what modelling is designed to do. There's been an awful lot of that on here, too, especially from people who complain about 'time machines' etc etc. The point is that models and projections both attempt to understand and illustrate possible outcomes against a set of circumstances, while also affect behaviours by being created and reported. Add to that the fact that government always asks the scientists to model a range of scenarios, including the 'reasonable worst case scenario' under 'do nothing' conditions and the media then always headline with the do nothing worst case numbers, the scientists have actually done very well. That doesn't mean that outcomes match the reported 'prediction', but that speaks more of the childish analysis of the scientific assessments than of the assessments themselves. Somewhet mysteriously, from 23rd March 2020 everyone was an expert in infectious disease modelling and virology. and we had a fair few of them on UKPR, didn't we? So if a scientist issues a projection based on a set of assumptions, and those projections are bad, that in itself will alter the assumptions because people react to the projection. So the projection is out of date as soon as it is published. "The future is not set.." as someone once said. Those attacking the scientists are from the Conservative right, which suggests that this is a political game to deflect blame for poor government decisions and bad public health and economic and social outcomes. In other countries with a different flavour of government, I suspect the critique of the experts will be coming from a different side of the political spectrum. Had this been left to the politicians, we would have been well and truly stuffed. The scientists have done very well.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 29, 2021 9:19:21 GMT
Talking of LBC, on the way back from dropping of our younglings plus hamster in Salford Quays on Monday I listened to a discussion that was supposed to be about how long Johnson can last. Caller after caller didn't actually address the question but launched into their own soliloquy about covid. It was like having several Danny's with different voices. The thought struck me that there are a lot more things in the mix when considering Johnson's and the Conservative's future but these callers were clearly stuck in one groove. I wondered whether that was a bit of squirreling to avoid wider discussion of other issues. Sadly the presenter wasn't up to the level of James O'Brien and allowed these ramblings to continue each time.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 9:20:24 GMT
The Elephant in the room gets some welcome attention this morning.
Torsten Bell of Resolution Foundation on R4 Today describing the combined effects of the rapidly approaching cost of living crisis. He mused on the prospects of a u turn on proposed tax increases.
More interesting and relevant, to me, is Simon French in today's Times. His article is a warning about the effects he perceives from a State intervention in an Energy Price increase.-merely putting off the evil day etc etc. He wonders about support for consumers rather than the suppliers. And answers his own question really :-
"The winter fuel payment, state pension and universal credit could be increased to provide additional support to the hardest-hit households. The risk however is that many of these schemes overlap, while some of the poorest families sit outside these schemes altogether and will not benefit. I am in little doubt that the government will be forced to act, but let’s not pretend that it will be easy or without considerable risk."
French's article contains what I was really looking for -some numbers :-
First :-
"Left unchecked the average UK household looks set to spend an additional £800 on energy bills in 2022. This would amount to 80 per cent annual inflation on domestic fuel bills"
-yes 80% !
Next :-
" My own analysis suggests it would cost the Treasury upwards of £10 billion next year to subsidise energy companies sufficiently to limit household tariff increases to only 10 per cent. To put that cost in context that is equivalent to about 2p on the basic rate of income tax, or a considerable new windfall tax on recent corporate profits."
Yes-£10bn pa ! ( to leave consumers coping with double the rate of inflation)
These are not small potatoes-and Sunak must deal with them.
Coming back to Torsten Bell on R4, he suggested that MPs need to start thinking about this-and a little less about mask wearing.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 9:33:25 GMT
In 2014 it was reported " some Red Guards have issued public apologies to their victims," (1)-about their conduct during The Cultural Revolution in China. The same process seems to have started in The Labour Party :- "Speaking at this year’s Limmud festival, a Jewish event, the shadow foreign secretary said he “never believed” Corbyn would become leader and that his nomination was “a mistake”. “I regret nominating Jeremy Corbyn and if I knew what I do now, I never would have nominated him,” Lammy told an online audience of about 300, in comments first reported in Jewish News. “I never believed he would become leader. That was a mistake and I am sorry for that.” Guardian.  (1)npr.org |
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Post by pete on Dec 29, 2021 9:38:35 GMT
Brits face 'cost of living catastrophe': Families will be hit by a year of soaring bills, tax rises, less spending power and the highest inflation for 30 years in 2022 leaving average household £1,200 WORSE OFF, report warns Average family is facing a £1,200 hit next year because of soaring energy bills, tax rises and spiking inflation Resolution Foundation report warns 2022 will be 'year of squeeze' as inflation projected to reach six per cent Rising gas prices could add as much as £600 to family budgets when the energy price cap is reviewed in April Households are also facing higher taxes from April when Rishi Sunak's National Insurance hike kicks in www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10351327/Average-family-faces-1-200-hit-budget-soaring-bills-tax-rises-inflation.html |
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Post by somerjohn on Dec 29, 2021 9:52:24 GMT
Colin: The same process seems to have started in The Labour Party
Refreshing honesty from a politician.
Tories next? Johnson's proposer was one Liz Truss and seconder Ben Wallace. Mea culpas from those two would be welcome, and perhaps not impossible if Truss sees career advantage in playing Brutus.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 29, 2021 10:06:32 GMT
@ ON
There is, of course, an emotional element but also 60 years of thinking about the best governance structures for Scotland.
To wish to have governance structures based on an emotional response seems to me an inappropriate way to approach consideration of practicalities.
Thanks for the response. Prior to the experience of Brexit I would have probably responded with a whole litany of practical reasons why maintaining the Union is for the best all round, but I don't think that's what matters in issues such as this one. Both sides will cherry pick in regards to this. I think people are generally more inclined to support the status quo if they think is delivers their material needs, and will also be driven by emotional/identity attachment. In my view it’s these two elements that are key for most people on issues such as this one, with other points relatively peripheral.
Prior to the Brexit vote I personally was being very rational in my thinking etc., but when the result came through my reaction was very much an emotional one (and remained so for a long time). Perhaps if the remain campaign had recognised the emotive elements to the decision it may have gone differently.
Ps its another bloody awful, grey and wet day in the PSRL.
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Post by tancred on Dec 29, 2021 10:25:12 GMT
tancred "These islands are too small for any break-up of our British nation" Obviously there is a "British nation". It consists of those who consider themselves to belong to it, of which you are clearly one. In the same way, there is an "Indonesian nation", which has a similar composition. Unfortunately, they insisted on including the residents of East Timor, who did not share that identity. Presumably, you consider that East Timor should not have become independent, but just accepted the identity they were told to have? As for those damn Norwegians who decided that having their foreign policy decided by the Swedish Crown in Sweden's interests should not have been permitted to opt to break that link? Let's not even consider the horrors of the Baltic States choosing to reject being part of the Soviet Union? Why are you not demanding that Mann and the CI are incorporated into the UK? East Timor is different from the rest of Indonesia, and more than just culturally. The East Timorese are ethnically, racially and linguistically very different from the rest of Indonesia. The differences between England and the three Celtic nations are not that great by comparison. As for Norway, this country used to be part of Denmark prior to being poached by Sweden as a reward for fighting Napoleon, and Norwegian is a lot closer to Danish than Swedish, so, if anything, Norway should be united with Denmark rather than Sweden. That said, Norway has developed its own identity over the last 200 years so it makes sense for it to be an independent state. The Baltic states are completely different from Russia in ethnicity, language and culture, and certainly in the case of Latvia and Estonia, well inside the Scandinavian cultural orbit. Lithuania, on the other hand, is closely influenced by Poland. With regard to the IOM and CI, these are effectively and practically part of the UK even though legally they are crown dependencies - it makes little difference to me. The fact that these territories do not take part in UK general elections is probably more harmful to the Tories, given that it's likely that they would add 2-3 Tory seats in the Commons. I am not saying that Scotland is not a distinct nation, I accept that it is, but I would argue that the overall British nation is a better home for Scottish people than an independent Scotland, just as Catalonia is better within the Spanish nation. Belgium has historically had little reason to stay intact as a unified state, but it has managed to thrive as a small prosperous country, and likewise Switzerland. I don't see the point of having more small states in a continent that is already very fragmented. |
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Post by tancred on Dec 29, 2021 10:27:25 GMT
Brits face 'cost of living catastrophe': Families will be hit by a year of soaring bills, tax rises, less spending power and the highest inflation for 30 years in 2022 leaving average household £1,200 WORSE OFF, report warns Average family is facing a £1,200 hit next year because of soaring energy bills, tax rises and spiking inflation Resolution Foundation report warns 2022 will be 'year of squeeze' as inflation projected to reach six per cent Rising gas prices could add as much as £600 to family budgets when the energy price cap is reviewed in April Households are also facing higher taxes from April when Rishi Sunak's National Insurance hike kicks in www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10351327/Average-family-faces-1-200-hit-budget-soaring-bills-tax-rises-inflation.htmlThis is the perfect sh*t storm for the government. Not that they don't deserve it because they do, completely and utterly. By 2023 I expect Labour to have a double digit lead in all polls, irrespective of who is PM and Tory leader. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 10:28:24 GMT
Somewhet mysteriously, from 23rd March 2020 everyone was an expert in infectious disease modelling and virology. and we had a fair few of them on UKPR, didn't we? Not really, it’s yet another cheap shot. I doubt anyone posting about Covid considers themselves remotely an expert on the matter. They have been exchanging info. and measuring ideas against each other, and part of the process involves engaging with expert approaches. This is common to learning lots of things. You might look at what the best do and try and do similar. At least pick up some elements. When first learning guitar, I used to try and play solos by Clapton, Santana, Gilmour et al. This wasn’t because I thought I was as good as them, but because it’s a handy way to learn. That said, it’s pretty obvious that experts have made errors that we can actually get our head around. Beginning with having the wrong plan in the first place. Regarding the modelling, other experts have made a number of critiques of the modelling approach which you are leaving out, but shan’t go into it in this thread. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 29, 2021 10:29:03 GMT
Also… most people on this board, are not professors in political science or polling stats, yet that does not bar them from commenting on politics or even criticising the polling methodology etc.
but when it’s science and tech., somehow even those who studied it, or researched it, or used it daily in their careers, are considered delusional if they discuss it.
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Post by jib on Dec 29, 2021 10:38:28 GMT
tancredI generally agree. The inflationary shock that will hit the global economy is going to be pretty painful. The purchasing power of the £,$ or € in your pocket is going to be severely tested. It takes a lot of effort to squeeze inflation out of the economy, and the course of treatment is painful.
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Post by moby on Dec 29, 2021 10:39:32 GMT
tancred "These islands are too small for any break-up of our British nation" Obviously there is a "British nation". It consists of those who consider themselves to belong to it, of which you are clearly one. In the same way, there is an "Indonesian nation", which has a similar composition. Unfortunately, they insisted on including the residents of East Timor, who did not share that identity. Presumably, you consider that East Timor should not have become independent, but just accepted the identity they were told to have? As for those damn Norwegians who decided that having their foreign policy decided by the Swedish Crown in Sweden's interests should not have been permitted to opt to break that link? Let's not even consider the horrors of the Baltic States choosing to reject being part of the Soviet Union? Why are you not demanding that Mann and the CI are incorporated into the UK? East Timor is different from the rest of Indonesia, and more than just culturally. The East Timorese are ethnically, racially and linguistically very different from the rest of Indonesia. The differences between England and the three Celtic nations are not that great by comparison. As for Norway, this country used to be part of Denmark prior to being poached by Sweden as a reward for fighting Napoleon, and Norwegian is a lot closer to Danish than Swedish, so, if anything, Norway should be united with Denmark rather than Sweden. That said, Norway has developed its own identity over the last 200 years so it makes sense for it to be an independent state. The Baltic states are completely different from Russia in ethnicity, language and culture, and certainly in the case of Latvia and Estonia, well inside the Scandinavian cultural orbit. Lithuania, on the other hand, is closely influenced by Poland. With regard to the IOM and CI, these are effectively and practically part of the UK even though legally they are crown dependencies - it makes little difference to me. The fact that these territories do not take part in UK general elections is probably more harmful to the Tories, given that it's likely that they would add 2-3 Tory seats in the Commons. I am not saying that Scotland is not a distinct nation, I accept that it is, but I would argue that the overall British nation is a better home for Scottish people than an independent Scotland, just as Catalonia is better within the Spanish nation. Belgium has historically had little reason to stay intact as a unified state, but it has managed to thrive as a small prosperous country, and likewise Switzerland. I don't see the point of having more small states in a continent that is already very fragmented. If we'd stayed in the EU I would have agreed on balance but the UK is screwed now and the EU does well by smaller countries that are often patronised by larger ones; Ireland is an example of that. England gave it Oliver Cromwell and the Black and Tans and the EU confidence and prosperity. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Dec 29, 2021 10:39:58 GMT
tancred
Interesting that you are in favour of (or at least accept) independence for places where they are ethnically different from the dominant population. Ethnic nationalism, such as that, is widely considered to be the province of racial purists and similar far right groups.
For EU Unionists, such as myself, one of the great benefits of the EU is that it accommodates a wide range of political entities, whose population prefers not to be constrained in an incorporating union where all power lies outwith that polity, but agree to cede some of their sovereignty to a wider confederation.
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