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Post by alec on Dec 28, 2021 17:41:04 GMT
"On the data then as mentioned on the Covid specific thread the '400' number for London hospital admissions wasn't breached on Xmas Eve. Latest update 26Dec was 374 and various folks pointing out that London might be plateauing."
As ever, there seems to be some wishful thinking from @tw here. On the three days Dec 26th - 28th London hospital beds occupied by covid cases have increased by +130, +215 and +384, each of these increases representing a recent record, with the average daily increase over the previous 10 days being 96.5.
It is true that London hospital admissions have levelled a little over the Christmas period, but it isn't wise to take Christmas admissions data too seriously as there are numerous distorting factors. Nationally we've seen covid beds increasing by 2000 in the last two days, so not a good sign. Many of these will be incidental cases, but we still haven't yet seen what will happen when Omicron leaks into the older age ranges, and if this increases the hospitalization rate, then things are going to get quite difficult.
Far too much wishing for a good outcome here. Prof John Bell of Oxford was on R4 suggesting that we would be largely back to normaly by the spring.
Which is odd, because he said exactly the same thing as Christmas time last year - except he said Spring 2021 we would be back to normal.
I get the desperation to normalize covid, but none of us know what long covid will do. we don't know if Omicron carries the same long covid risk, there will be new variants, and there will be many in hospital in the coming weeks even with 'mild' Omicron.
Viruses don't respond to optimism.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 17:43:08 GMT
?!?! There is a 'power sharing' arrangement in Stormont. On current polling then SF would likely get FM but no party can ' take over in Stormont' (Also in RoI then SF will very unlikely win a majority (80+ seats). They currently have most seats at 37 and that might very well increase such that it becomes near impossible for FF+FG(+Greens+maybe others) to hold on to power but even then SF will almost certainly need a coalition partner) PS I'd like to see SF be the main partner in next RoI govt... as an ENAT that would be good for England/UK as SF would likely rip up RoI's 'beggar thy neighbour' (regional/global laffer curve exploitation) economic model, which removes the temptation of 'race to the bottom' (which is only slowly being dealt with at a regional/global level).  |
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 28, 2021 17:46:20 GMT
Looks like AW's "cesspit" has just seeped under the door.  I can picture his knowing smile. Seeped under the door? Have we got a shape shifter in the camp? Too much time watching Star Trek related programs for me! |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 28, 2021 17:58:43 GMT
Colin, That Lab lead is a tad encouraging but is 2% for economic competence Starmer led Labour v Johnson led Cons. 2 cautionary notes for Labour supporters like myself: First it is less than the VI lead Lab v Cons (could be from the same data set as the 39/32 Opinium). Secondly, more importantly, it is for Johnson not Sunak or ANOther. Tories need to ditch Johnson before the summer as after that the cabinet members, who can argue stability needed etc for now, will be tarnished by association. It may be that 'not time for a change' message will be enough come 2024 for the Tories to get most seats. Still the likely outcome imo but whether the Tories get enough to continue to lead the Government is a closer call. On the other matter I think Alec's occasional advise to imagine it is the other party doing this applies and I know how I would react if it was said about a prominent Labour Party woman. I also think it is sexist and don't need to wait for women posters to tell me; as acknowledging that those experiencing something (or from the same part of society) will have a greater insight should not be an excuse for abrogation. I do now think we are more than likely looking at a '24 rather than '23 election - irrespective of whether Johnson remains as PM (which I think is more likely than not). Also I am yet to be convinced that Sunak will prove to be the electoral panacea for the Tories that many are currently convinced he is. One thing Starmer has got right, which some have overlooked, is not to 'insult' the electorate about how it got it wrong over Brexit but rather allow public opinion on the efficacy of the decision to leave to slowly take root. also the noticeable shift in public opinion on this issue is taking away the only viable attack the line the Tories have on starmer. Starmer 'blandness' may prove to be an asset in terms of not giving the Tory press ammunition. In addition, one should not underestimate the 'personal' element of the vote Johnson got in the 'red wall' seats in '19, and how that vote will not necessarily transfer to another Tory leader. A number of voters in these seats did not overnight see the light and become Thatcherite small state Tories - quite the reverse many remain relatively left wing when it comes to economic issues. While I tend to be a pessimist when it comes to labour's chances, I do get a sense that we may be at that point when the governing party has manged to alienate sufficient sectors of the electorate that will lead to their fall. |
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Post by graham on Dec 28, 2021 17:59:54 GMT
Graham "World War 2 is barely 75 years ago - not 90!" Your knowledge of history is as poor as your categorisation of "isms". The "British Fascists" were formed in 1923,though merged into the British Union of Fascists in 1932. Both organisations had extensive support among the Tory Party (that's the one that you said you would vote for). Mosley formed the "New Party" (forerunner of the BUF) in 1931, with 5 other Labour MPs - later joined by a Tory MP and a Liberal MP. Even your arithmetic should allow you to recognise that 1931 precedes 2021 by 90 years. That you clearly have little comprehension of the political polarisation that existed in the 20s and 30s of last century surprises me not at all, given your belief that there has been no change in any political beliefs during the last 100 years, and that you prefer to vote for British Nationalist parties. Oldnat
I make no attempt to compete with your arrogance and inflated ego.
The New Party founded in March 1931 was not a Fascist organisation per se. Mosley swung that way when his party failed to make an impact at the October 1931 GE. Of the few MPs who initially joined it , several resigned the following day and then sat as Independents.His initial views centred on Keynesian style economic policies together with a powerful Executive modelled largely on how Lloyd George had managed affairs during World War 1. Moreover, pro-German sympathies were not relevant at that stage , given that Hitler did not achieve power until the end of January 1933.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 28, 2021 18:04:16 GMT
Sadly, yesterday evening, in west PSRL, a team from the south coast arrived, along with a referee born in the same south coast town. The result of the match was fairly predictable. A similar thing happenend to our family's team on boxing day - although I'm not sure where the ref was born but my dear brother did questions his parentage. |
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Post by mercian on Dec 28, 2021 18:11:21 GMT
@ Merican Just popped into my local waterstones as they had a sale on hardbacks - picked up The Anglo-Saxons: a History of the Beginnings of England by Marc Norris. Have you read it? No, but I've got a few books on the period, including Mercia and the making of England by Ian W. Walker. It's a very interesting (to me) period. The Anglo-Saxon system was much more egalitarian then the feudal system introduced by the Normans, though they did have slaves and serfs of course. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 28, 2021 18:22:13 GMT
I know you don't like football, but that's a bit harsh, isn't it??? Eh ? I love it-as my extortionate Sky Sports bill constantly reminds me. Hmmmm, OK, I obviously got that bit wrong about your love of football. I know I was away from the site for 12 months or more, and recollections fade over time, but I always had you down a rugby and cricket man with some disdain for football. I'd got you in the TOH camp in that regard. My mistake. Good to know we've got another football lover on board the good ship UKPR2!! Share your view about Sky Sports, by the way! |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 28, 2021 18:26:18 GMT
@ Merican Just popped into my local waterstones as they had a sale on hardbacks - picked up The Anglo-Saxons: a History of the Beginnings of England by Marc Norris. Have you read it? No, but I've got a few books on the period, including Mercia and the making of England by Ian W. Walker. It's a very interesting (to me) period. The Anglo-Saxon system was much more egalitarian then the feudal system introduced by the Normans, though they did have slaves and serfs of course. Hiya - yes I have always seen the Norman conquest as marking a massive step back in terms of political and social development. Chapter 4 in the book I bought is entitled 'An English Empire - King Offa and the Domination of the South' - made me think of you. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 18:32:47 GMT
Colin, That Lab lead is a tad encouraging but is 2% for economic competence Starmer led Labour v Johnson led Cons. 2 cautionary notes for Labour supporters like myself: First it is less than the VI lead Lab v Cons (could be from the same data set as the 39/32 Opinium). Secondly, more importantly, it is for Johnson not Sunak or ANOther. Tories need to ditch Johnson before the summer as after that the cabinet members, who can argue stability needed etc for now, will be tarnished by association. It may be that 'not time for a change' message will be enough come 2024 for the Tories to get most seats. Still the likely outcome imo but whether the Tories get enough to continue to lead the Government is a closer call. Thanks-I am more pessimistic about Cons than you are optimistic about Labour ! Neither of us would get hired ! |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 18:42:09 GMT
@ Colin Completely got the wrong end of the stick of what you were referring to, and I completely missed the use of the term trollop in a previous post which I obviously don't condone - I thought you were making a light hearted comment. Personally I don’t think what Truss does or doesn’t do in her personal life particularly matters; however, I do subscribe to the view that she is not up to the job. Thanks. On Truss, actually I have no idea how she would perform as PM. I mean no one gets training do they? Its a lottery it seems to me. She could turn out to be a good PM. That she has a love of and belief in her country is not a negative for me. The issue for me is that the OPs say Cons chances of re-election are zero if she is leader. So her credentials are immaterial. She wont be PM because Labour would win that election. SHEVII suggests that if she is presented by the MPs to the Members they will change their minds because of the polls. I wish I was sure of that. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 28, 2021 18:43:53 GMT
Graham "World War 2 is barely 75 years ago - not 90!" Your knowledge of history is as poor as your categorisation of "isms". The "British Fascists" were formed in 1923,though merged into the British Union of Fascists in 1932. Both organisations had extensive support among the Tory Party (that's the one that you said you would vote for). Mosley formed the "New Party" (forerunner of the BUF) in 1931, with 5 other Labour MPs - later joined by a Tory MP and a Liberal MP. Even your arithmetic should allow you to recognise that 1931 precedes 2021 by 90 years. That you clearly have little comprehension of the political polarisation that existed in the 20s and 30s of last century surprises me not at all, given your belief that there has been no change in any political beliefs during the last 100 years, and that you prefer to vote for British Nationalist parties. Oldnat
I make no attempt to compete with your arrogance and inflated ego.
The New Party founded in March 1931 was not a Fascist organisation per se. Mosley swung that way when his party failed to make an impact at the October 1931 GE. Of the few MPs who initially joined it , several resigned the following day and then sat as Independents.His initial views centred on Keynesian style economic policies together with a powerful Executive modelled largely on how Lloyd George had managed affairs during World War 1. Moreover, pro-German sympathies were not relevant at that stage , given that Hitler did not achieve power until the end of January 1933. Graham - you should know by now that ON will try and link any support for Britain as a political polity, or the concept of Britishness to the most extreme right wing fascist position. It suits his political objective of an independent Scotland. I am not sure what his evidence for 'extensive support' among the Tory party comes from - but I do know some of the most explicit opponents of fascism came from the Tory party. The politics of the 20's and 30's are extremely complex and not necessarily comparable to those of today. I do find ON's linkage between the Tory party, your position that you vote would consider voting Tory due to your support of the Union and fascism very distasteful. |
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Post by Danny on Dec 28, 2021 18:57:49 GMT
South africa moved to no isolation of positive tested individuals unless they have symptoms. But equally testing of contacts has been ended, so asymptomatic people arent going to be tested at all. Outbreak looks to have clearly peaked, with deaths much lower than delta. So it never challenged hospital services. In the Uk context Zoe R for London and UK now 1.2. NW up to 1.3, but this is likely to do exactly the same as london did, a modest surge then falling back. Hospitalisations in general looking encouraging that they might end up falling rather than rising as omicron fully replaces delta, which it has done 90% in new testing, but as this feeds through to those in hospital total number may fall even with many more cases because they are milder. Interestingly, the zoe data on other infections shows these have been falling even while omicron and thus covid have been rising. So once again isolation has succeeded in causing levels of general colds and flu to fall, but covid kept on going. John campbell reported positivity in New York now reaching 50% on people tested, though there is a shortage of tests. Again, there has been no sudden deterioration of the hospital situation where they like the UK already had a significant number of delta cases. US has cut the isolation period to 5 days. For two reasons - one that by this time most people will have ceased to be infectious, or largely ceased. The other that the harm caused by ordering symptomless people home outweighs any benefits.
In Australia cases taking off. The authorities have decided there is no longer any point in attempting suppression, so people just have to catch it. Its true that isolation and boosters will have slowed cases here somewhat, but on the whole its looking like there was no point cancelling christmas. How will the public react to that? I imagine Johnson has his fingers crossed blowback will be worse for the oppositions in england, scotland, wales, ireland than for his government with its refusenik MPs who fought a battle against more restrictions. |
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Post by alec on Dec 28, 2021 18:59:49 GMT
colin - "That she has a love of and belief in her country is not a negative for me." Oh please - don't be such a gumby. Liz Truss loves her country so much the Australian trade negotiators nicknamed her "Doormat" because she was willing to give them anything they wanted. She loves herself, and her ambition. You've made an @rse of yourself three times on the trot with your lauding of the latest Conservative Party fetishised leader - do your best to avoid the four in a row meme.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 28, 2021 18:59:52 GMT
Graham
Congratulations on finding the Wiki article.
I make no attempt to compete with your deranged belief that "Nationalism" = "Fascism" or "Nazism" (in all places and at all times presumably) or that those wishing self-determination must be "Nationalists" (in your particular equation of that term), while those wishing to maintain their polity in its current position cannot be : your association of some members of a party (that wishes to end their present incorporating political union with rUK) with extreme views in the second quarter of the 20th century, while ignoring the same association with some members of a party (wishing to maintain the UK as an incorporating political union) that you would vote for.
Since 1990, 34 new countries have been created. To take only two of them as an example, Slovakia and the Czech Republic both had pro Nazi politicians in the 1930s/40s. For your contention to have any rational basis, you must believe that those wishing their polities to be independent states must have been Nationalists intending them to become Fascist states, while those who wished the state of Czechoslovakia to continue included no such people.
If you are genuinely "anti-Nationalist" in some peculiar sense that no new state should be created out of an existing one, then you would be condemnatory of the existence of Norway, and even more so of Ireland.
But I doubt that you do believe such nonsenses, limiting your ridiculous contention to political movements that would bring about the end of the current GB - I say GB, because you only mentioned SNP and Plaid, and not the more obvious example of Sinn Fein, which anyone primarily concerned with the UK would have included.
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Post by robert on Dec 28, 2021 19:01:43 GMT
I thought Colin was referring to the comment about Liz Truss which I also think is inappropriate. I wonder of the poster might consider editing out? JimJam/Colin Well it was pretty obvious to me that colin was indeed referring to the inappropriate comment about Truss. Back in the good old days, Anthony would have deleted such a comment and given the poster a warning. He would also have emphasised the importance of balanced posting; sneering or simply levelling insults at those with whom you don't agree, is hardly intelligent discussion. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 19:05:32 GMT
colin - "That she has a love of and belief in her country is not a negative for me." Oh please - don't be such a gumby. Liz Truss loves her country so much the Australian trade negotiators nicknamed her "Doormat" because she was willing to give them anything they wanted. She loves herself, and her ambition. You've made an @rse of yourself three times.... Cesspit! |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 28, 2021 19:10:33 GMT
Graham
Congratulations on finding the Wiki article.
Meow!
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 28, 2021 19:14:11 GMT
@ robert
..sneering or simply levelling insults at those with whom you don't agree, is hardly intelligent discussion.
But alas an integral part of political discourse since time immemorial.
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bantams
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Post by bantams on Dec 28, 2021 19:14:46 GMT
colin - "That she has a love of and belief in her country is not a negative for me." Oh please - don't be such a gumby. Liz Truss loves her country so much the Australian trade negotiators nicknamed her "Doormat" because she was willing to give them anything they wanted. She loves herself, and her ambition. You've made an @rse of yourself three times on the trot with your lauding of the latest Conservative Party fetishised leader - do your best to avoid the four in a row meme. Where has this doormat story come from? |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 28, 2021 19:15:25 GMT
Lulemon
"The politics of the 20's and 30's are extremely complex and not necessarily comparable to those of today. I do find ON's linkage between the Tory party, your position that you vote would consider voting Tory due to your support of the Union and fascism very distasteful."
Didn't you notice that it was Graham who was making the ridiculous linkage between the events of the 30's and 40's with the SNP and Plaid today. You didn't find that distasteful?
Yet my pointing out that applying his nonsensical approach to his own preferred VI would involve him in the very same process offends you?
It should have been obvious, but there is only one person trying to make that connection of a current political party back to those times - and that is Graham. I make no suggestion that current Tories embrace Fascism, but like every organisation that existed then, and still exists today, there are elements of such to be found in their history. That is just as true of major churches like the Church of England, Church of Scotland, Catholic Church, as with any political party.
To suggest that the beliefs of some 70-90 years ago in any organisation reflect current day values is frankly ludicrous.
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Post by robert on Dec 28, 2021 19:29:07 GMT
@ robert ..sneering or simply levelling insults at those with whom you don't agree, is hardly intelligent discussion. But alas an integral part of political discourse since time immemorial. Well, certainly since the advent of social media, maybe. Of course, heckling was often a feature of political meetings in times of yore but it would never have been personal, as insults on social media are now, and of course the heckler could be seen and identified. They didn't have an invisibility cloak to hide under. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 19:53:45 GMT
I wonder if some of the venom spat at Truss is because she was a Remainer in 2016 but became a 'born again' True Br-Leaver (ie 'traitors' to the cause are treated the harshest by the 'religious' fanatics of a cause)? Rejoiner/vassal state Twit-terverse don't seem to like her and busy retweeting 'gotchas' from 2016 (possibly as many of them are still stuck in 2016 trying to refight Brexit in their own little bubble when most folks have 'moved on' - see various 'most important issues' polling) I don't want her as next CON leader and PM (partially agreeing with shevii but 'Tea Party' is OTT) but see various previous posts that highlight my/CON members concerns that she is too much of an 'opportunist' (note also the 'Schrödinger's cat[1] ideology/opportunist' accusations where she is both a 'far-right ideologist' and a 'blatant opportunist' at the same time) There is a 'sweet spot' for ideology/opportunism. Too little and you're an opportunist, too much and you're a fanatic. Each situation is different (eg Covid has shown a range on the axis of opinion on the 'authoritarian-libertarian' that is certainly not purely 'Left-Right' with various 'nuance' branches on stuff like vaccine passports as well) but a leader can't live forever in the 'vague' - that luxury is for opposition and those who wish to live in the 'shadow' (cabinet). Anyone in the actual cabinet or #10 needs to make decisions and that does need a bit of ideology (policy) but does need to be aware of 'events' and circumstances. |
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Post by turk on Dec 28, 2021 19:58:13 GMT
It’s surprising how quickly contributors lose sight of how polling works . The polls have temporarily at least moved in favour of Labour solely on the back of mistakes made by the Tories and its Leader. The move towards Labour has nothing to do with Starmer or the Labour Party and everything to do with the Tory party. To me Starmer is a nonentity leading a very weak party.
However he has had the at least temporary good fortune to be the receiver of a fed up population who 2yrs into Covid are very sensitive to anything from politicians that break the rules even if they have ignored those rules themselves.
Johnson at the moment is very unpopular with the country but only marginally more unpopular than Starmer imo opinion Labours lead a couple of months into the new year will be marginal if at all as people move on ,with over two years before the next GE it would be very difficult for any party to maintain a lead in the polls above one or two points over the next couple of years as Covid takes a back seat.
As to Johnson going soon we will see again imo I think that is unlikely ,depends on the next six months or more if things as I suspect begin to level out in the polls he is pretty safe if not there are at least three I can think of Truss, Sunak or Hunt that would have little trouble with Starmer at the dispatch box.
Truss would be my pick having witnessed her at the dispatch box she gives as good as she gets and is always well prepared and is certainly has a lot of ministerial experience and it would rub Labours nose in it being the third woman picked as leader when they seem stuck in a men only need apply mode for the top job.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 20:01:48 GMT
@tw
A Female Traitor to boot.!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 20:05:54 GMT
turkI agree that Truss is a match for Starmer. But would the public vote her into power. ?
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Post by James E on Dec 28, 2021 20:13:44 GMT
turk I agree that Truss is a match for Starmer. But it seems the public think differently. www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/27/boris-johnson-a-drag-on-tories-and-sunak-would-do-better-poll-shows27/12/21, reporting on Opinium: "As well as Johnson, Opinium asked people how they would vote under three further scenarios: if Sunak, Liz Truss or Michael Gove led the Tories – and in each scenario assumed that Starmer remained Labour’s leader. Truss is far less popular with the wider public than with Conservative activists, the polling suggests. The latest survey of party members conducted by the Conservative Home website showed her as their favourite successor to Johnson, with Sunak second. However, Opinium’s figures suggest that she would do even worse than Johnson, and far worse than Sunak, and lead the Tories to a crushing 16-point defeat." |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 28, 2021 20:15:32 GMT
Lulemon "The politics of the 20's and 30's are extremely complex and not necessarily comparable to those of today. I do find ON's linkage between the Tory party, your position that you vote would consider voting Tory due to your support of the Union and fascism very distasteful."Didn't you notice that it was Graham who was making the ridiculous linkage between the events of the 30's and 40's with the SNP and Plaid today. You didn't find that distasteful? Yet my pointing out that applying his nonsensical approach to his own preferred VI would involve him in the very same process offends you? It should have been obvious, but there is only one person trying to make that connection of a current political party back to those times - and that is Graham. I make no suggestion that current Tories embrace Fascism, but like every organisation that existed then, and still exists today, there are elements of such to be found in their history. That is just as true of major churches like the Church of England, Church of Scotland, Catholic Church, as with any political party. To suggest that the beliefs of some 70-90 years ago in any organisation reflect current day values is frankly ludicrous. Actually historically he is on much firmer ground than you are - anti-British politicians such as de Valera (at that time many who were in favour of Scottish nationalism were inspired by him) and many Indian nationalist were favourable to Hitler (the enemy of my enemy is my friend). De Valera actually sent a commiseration telegram to Germany on Hitler’s death ffs. FDR (no supporter of British Imperialism) despised de Velera for his stance during the war, and recognised that the British were fundamentally different to the Nazis. I did pick up in your post more than a hint of linking Labour and Tory parties to fascism - which I thought historically was more of a distortion. For Tory politicians in the period they were very much faced by two dual evils - Fascism and Communism. Also the number of left wing politicians that really got it wrong as far as Stalin was concerned is endless. If you are going to cite one British political party that was consistently anti-fascist from start to finish then it’s the Labour party! As I mentioned in a previous post current SNP policy is currently more of the ‘liberal’ form. Anecdotally most of the SNP voters I now have core beliefs are not that far from my own. But there is no guarantee that in 20 years’ time the type of nationalism espoused by the SNP will be the same, especially if Independence is obtained. If in 20 years-time the Labour party does still exist I am 100% sure it will remain anti-fascist. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 28, 2021 20:18:12 GMT
@ robert ..sneering or simply levelling insults at those with whom you don't agree, is hardly intelligent discussion. But alas an integral part of political discourse since time immemorial. Well, certainly since the advent of social media, maybe. Of course, heckling was often a feature of political meetings in times of yore but it would never have been personal, as insults on social media are now, and of course the heckler could be seen and identified. They didn't have an invisibility cloak to hide under. Hiya - have you read some of the political pamphlets from the c17/18/19's? |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 28, 2021 20:22:28 GMT
@ crofty and crossbat11
This post should finally make me a 'senior' member - I will now be able to bring down the system from within!
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