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Post by shevii on Dec 28, 2021 20:24:26 GMT
colinI don't think a simple poll or research to where people get their news covers the complexity of this point. I will never be able to prove my opinion but seems to me that the tabloids can be a starting point- someone reads an article, repeats it on twitter or to their mates and additionally the TV will often go with what the newspapers have been talking about. I assume BBC news was high up the list? BBC news is at least mostly accurate and timid in what they cover regardless of whether we think it is biased or not, and yet the themes of the tabloids half truths or exaggerations often seem to become the dominant opinion. We see this a lot in polling where people may totally overestimate, say, the Muslim population in the UK, or what one group in society is paid or whatever. Also if we are talking about polling then perhaps the swing voters less interested in politics are more often found in that tabloid readership? @tw I did add "economically" tea party to my comment. I doubt she would be so extreme on the Tea Party social issues agenda but she does seem to want to maximise free trade at any cost as an ideological thing without regards to the consequences.
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 28, 2021 20:26:37 GMT
It’s surprising how quickly contributors lose sight of how polling works . The polls have temporarily at least moved in favour of Labour solely on the back of mistakes made by the Tories and its Leader. The move towards Labour has nothing to do with Starmer or the Labour Party and everything to do with the Tory party. To me Starmer is a nonentity leading a very weak party. However he has had the at least temporary good fortune to be the receiver of a fed up population who 2yrs into Covid are very sensitive to anything from politicians that break the rules even if they have ignored those rules themselves. Johnson at the moment is very unpopular with the country but only marginally more unpopular than Starmer imo opinion Labours lead a couple of months into the new year will be marginal if at all as people move on ,with over two years before the next GE it would be very difficult for any party to maintain a lead in the polls above one or two points over the next couple of years as Covid takes a back seat. As to Johnson going soon we will see again imo I think that is unlikely ,depends on the next six months or more if things as I suspect begin to level out in the polls he is pretty safe if not there are at least three I can think of Truss, Sunak or Hunt that would have little trouble with Starmer at the dispatch box. Truss would be my pick having witnessed her at the dispatch box she gives as good as she gets and is always well prepared and is certainly has a lot of ministerial experience and it would rub Labours nose in it being the third woman picked as leader when they seem stuck in a men only need apply mode for the top job. Turkey - good to hear from you from over yonder pond. Long time no hear but it appears that Christmas was kind to you and the festive break has recharged those famous philanthropic batteries. Good to get some much needed balance back into the analysis of the polls too. It's interesting to hear that you think anyone of Truss, Sunak or Hunt would have little trouble getting the better of the nonentity Starmer at the dispatch box. This is a perspective I hadn't pondered before but it's a valuable one from someone that I know, from your many past posts, to be both scrupulously fair and open minded about these things. The idea that Starmer is a non-entity is something worth considering and I thank you for, how do the kids say now, "putting it out there". I also liked your thinking as to how the Tories should go about selecting their new leader. Not so much about the need for a unifying political figure for a troubled country, more the necessity to pick someone who could "rub Labour's nose in it." As I think they chant on the football terraces, and Colin knows about these things more than me, it "would be 3-0 to the Tory boys " . Or should that be 3-0 to the Tory girls? Back of the net, Turk, I've got to hand it to you. A masterstroke in the making. I also think your analysis of Labour being a "weak party" is a salutary one and I must now look more closely at this assessment of the opposition. I mean if you're noticing it in Texas, crikey, it's a charge that needs to be taken very seriously. Bad news obviously travels far. Forgive me for my attempt at an Americanism here but you stay safe there Turk now won't you. In the good old U S of A. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 20:28:58 GMT
@ crofty and crossbat11 This post should finally make me a 'senior' member - I will now be able to bring down the system from within! Congrats on that. What are the people like, up there in the clouds? I can’t believe I’ve got to plod on for over a hundred more posts for ONE GOLD STAR!!!!!! This is elitism gone mad. In the new, even newer, born again Labour Party we will ALL start with five stars and will all be considered elite. (Apart from Batty of course, who can run errands.) oh....and some other people. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 28, 2021 20:36:40 GMT
@ crofty and crossbat11 This post should finally make me a 'senior' member - I will now be able to bring down the system from within! Congrats on that. What are the people like, up there in the clouds? I can’t believe I’ve got to plod on for over a hundred more posts for ONE GOLD STAR!!!!!! This is elitism gone mad. In the new, even newer, born again Labour Party we will ALL start with five stars and will all be considered elite. (Apart from Batty of course, who can run errands.) oh....and some other people. It’s really not what you would expect - didn't get invited to any exclusive parties where you have to wear a mask and robes and pledge allegiance to some Greco-Roman deity (had a sacrificial goat ready any everything!) |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 28, 2021 20:39:23 GMT
@ crofty and crossbat11 This post should finally make me a 'senior' member - I will now be able to bring down the system from within! This makes me wonder how on earth you would describe someone who has made more than 20,000 posts on a single forum- as several people surely did on the old UKPR site. Retired? Too much time on their hands? |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 20:41:38 GMT
This makes me wonder how on earth you would describe someone who has made more than 20,000 posts on a single forum- as several people surely did on the old UKPR site. Retired? Too much time on their hands? Bonkers? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 28, 2021 20:52:17 GMT
@ crofty and crossbat11 This post should finally make me a 'senior' member - I will now be able to bring down the system from within! I am sir/madam, your obedient servant. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 21:00:35 GMT
@ crofty and crossbat11 This post should finally make me a 'senior' member - I will now be able to bring down the system from within! I am sir/madam, your obedient servant. She’s a senior, female, Lady of the Board. So you should curtsy, Batman. |
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Post by jib on Dec 28, 2021 21:16:30 GMT
It’s surprising how quickly contributors lose sight of how polling works . The polls have temporarily at least moved in favour of Labour solely on the back of mistakes made by the Tories and its Leader. The move towards Labour has nothing to do with Starmer or the Labour Party and everything to do with the Tory party. To me Starmer is a nonentity leading a very weak party. However he has had the at least temporary good fortune to be the receiver of a fed up population who 2yrs into Covid are very sensitive to anything from politicians that break the rules even if they have ignored those rules themselves. Johnson at the moment is very unpopular with the country but only marginally more unpopular than Starmer imo opinion Labours lead a couple of months into the new year will be marginal if at all as people move on ,with over two years before the next GE it would be very difficult for any party to maintain a lead in the polls above one or two points over the next couple of years as Covid takes a back seat. As to Johnson going soon we will see again imo I think that is unlikely ,depends on the next six months or more if things as I suspect begin to level out in the polls he is pretty safe if not there are at least three I can think of Truss, Sunak or Hunt that would have little trouble with Starmer at the dispatch box. Truss would be my pick having witnessed her at the dispatch box she gives as good as she gets and is always well prepared and is certainly has a lot of ministerial experience and it would rub Labours nose in it being the third woman picked as leader when they seem stuck in a men only need apply mode for the top job. I agree with some of your analysis. However, the Labour Party has twice as many members as the Tories. So if they are very weak, I'm not sure where that leaves the Tories. It's worth noting the SNP has 120k members compared to Tories @ 200k. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 28, 2021 21:18:28 GMT
Retired? Too much time on their hands? Bonkers? Retired, Bonkers and Insistent too. |
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Post by tancred on Dec 28, 2021 21:24:05 GMT
@ tancred Yawn. Woke evangelismOh dear, that’s now you, Crofty and Crossbat11 down for re-education. Colin, by calling out the use of inappropriate sexist language can now be seem as an 'ally' to the cause (I have this down to the good influence of his granddaughter). Thank you for confirming that you are in favour of 'cancelling' anyone with different views from your own. You exemplify why I cannot devote myself to supporting Labour heart and soul - people who have agendas, like yourself, have completely lost touch with most ordinary people. Most people are moderate, middle of road folk, who are mostly concerned with paying the mortgage/rent and putting food on the table for their families. These leftist Islington dinner party agendas have nothing to do with ordinary people - you would do well to remember this. |
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Post by robert on Dec 28, 2021 21:28:55 GMT
turk I agree that Truss is a match for Starmer. But would the public vote her into power. ? I can't answer the question Colin other than to say, that the same was undoubtedly said about Mrs Thatcher in 1975. She is the longest serving cabinet minister and has experience across government. My main concern is, is she playing too much on the Thatcher image. I want people to be themselves, not try to be something they are not. For the third female U.K. Prime Minister to be yet another Tory, would be a little upsetting for some, though! |
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Post by Old Southendian on Dec 28, 2021 21:33:47 GMT
Truss is far less popular with the wider public than with Conservative activists, the polling suggests. The latest survey of party members conducted by the Conservative Home website showed her as their favourite successor to Johnson, with Sunak second. However, Opinium’s figures suggest that she would do even worse than Johnson, and far worse than Sunak, and lead the Tories to a crushing 16-point defeat."
On Truss, I think another relevant point right now is that I don't think she's particularly well known to the public yet. Despite being Foreign Secretary and having many previous posts. See, for example:
In terms of the current cabinet, I think that places her at the 9th most well known*, which is impressively low. Clearly not many of the public listen to Dead Ringers.
So the question is, when the public get to see a little more of her, will they start to approve more or less? I wouldn't dare to answer that question myself, but maybe we'll find out soon.
EDIT: I note in retrospect that list was dated Q3 2021, so things may have changed a bit since then due to her promotion.
* Corrections welcome, I just did a quick scan.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 28, 2021 21:34:49 GMT
I know from previous erudite discussions on our alma mater that we can count several consummate linguistic experts amongst our number.
I therefore raise an issue that has been bothering me for a while - how do you pronounce 'Tancred'. Is it 'tank red', 'tankered', 'tank reed', 'tonc red', 'ton red' - so many possibilities?
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 28, 2021 21:38:57 GMT
For the football fanatics on the board, this random post on Facebook caught my seasonal eye.:
'Christmas Day 1937, Chelsea v Charlton at Stamford Bridge. The game was called off in the second half due to the fog. Charlton keeper Sam Bartram began to lose sight of his team-mates. “We were on top at this time,” he said in his autobiography, “and I saw fewer and fewer figures as we attacked steadily.” Bartram paced up and down his goal, assuming that his side had the opposition pinned in their own half. Several minutes later, a figure emerged from the fog. “What on Earth are you doing here?” asked a puzzled policeman. “The game was stopped a quarter of an hour ago. The field’s completely empty.”
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 28, 2021 21:42:56 GMT
why? I was way too young to vote for Thatcher but wouldn't have, I didn't vote for May irrespective of the fact she was a woman. Someone's gender is completely irrelevant (as is sexual preference or the colour of their skin) when it comes to their capability/desirability of them being PM.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 21:47:09 GMT
Tancred
I believe lululemon was making what is commonly referred to as a “joke”.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 28, 2021 21:47:26 GMT
Truss is far less popular with the wider public than with Conservative activists, the polling suggests. The latest survey of party members conducted by the Conservative Home website showed her as their favourite successor to Johnson, with Sunak second. However, Opinium’s figures suggest that she would do even worse than Johnson, and far worse than Sunak, and lead the Tories to a crushing 16-point defeat."
On Truss, I think another relevant point right now is that I don't think she's particularly well known to the public yet. Despite being Foreign Secretary and having many previous posts. See, for example:
In terms of the current cabinet, I think that places her at the 9th most well known*, which is impressively low. Clearly not many of the public listen to Dead Ringers.
So the question is, when the public get to see a little more of her, will they start to approve more or less? I wouldn't dare to answer that question myself, but maybe we'll find out soon.
EDIT: I note in retrospect that list was dated Q3 2021, so things may have changed a bit since then due to her promotion.
* Corrections welcome, I just did a quick scan.
Foreign Secretary's aren't what they were. Ever since Johnson, the post has been devalued in my eyes and their recent tenures seemed remarkably short. In times gone by their service was measured in years, if not decades, not the minutes they now encompass and they developed a gravitas and respect that's a country mile from recent the churlish fools on short tenancies. A devalued position in a devalued government in a devalued country. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 28, 2021 21:49:00 GMT
@ tancred Yawn. Woke evangelismOh dear, that’s now you, Crofty and Crossbat11 down for re-education. Colin, by calling out the use of inappropriate sexist language can now be seem as an 'ally' to the cause (I have this down to the good influence of his granddaughter). Thank you for confirming that you are in favour of 'cancelling' anyone with different views from your own. You exemplify why I cannot devote myself to supporting Labour heart and soul - people who have agendas, like yourself, have completely lost touch with most ordinary people. Most people are moderate, middle of road folk, who are mostly concerned with paying the mortgage/rent and putting food on the table for their families. These leftist Islington dinner party agendas have nothing to do with ordinary people - you would do well to remember this. Hi - have you had a sense of humour by-pass? An accusation normally levelled at someone with my views. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 21:55:07 GMT
shevii@"I don't think a simple poll or research to where people get their news covers the complexity of this point" Perhaps not-but I suggest that neither does " The Tabloids told them to vote that way", when they are not major sources of news consumption any more.
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Post by jimjam on Dec 28, 2021 21:57:37 GMT
SDA,
In my opinion the last Foreign Secretary with any clout was Malcom Rifkind and certainly Hurd before him during the period when Major was PM.
Thatcher, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May and Johnson have marginalised the FCO.
This means, for example, that Lisa Nandy to 'levelling up' is not a demotion and probably a promotion in terms of influence on Labour Part policy.
Home Office is probably no.2 after Chancellor due to the matters it has to deal with; for me, though, after the Treasury, BEIS is where I would want my allies if I were PM.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 21:58:48 GMT
turk I agree that Truss is a match for Starmer. But would the public vote her into power. ? I can't answer the question Colin other than to say, that the same was undoubtedly said about Mrs Thatcher in 1975. She is the longest serving cabinet minister and has experience across government. My main concern is, is she playing too much on the Thatcher image. I want people to be themselves, not try to be something they are not. For the third female U.K. Prime Minister to be yet another Tory, would be a little upsetting for some, though! It would Robert. But they have Rayner-so hope springs eternal. |
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Post by oldnat on Dec 28, 2021 21:59:37 GMT
Lululemon
You miss the entire point.
What some in any party, church or any other organisation (such as the monarchy) thought 70-90 years ago is irrelevant to current politics.
Perhaps because you wish to preserve the current UK state, you don't find it distasteful to link the SNP and Plaid to such folk, but you do when I point out that there were similar people in the Tory and Labour parties back then, simply to demonstrate how ludicrous suggestions of such links are.
Since the Liberal, Tory and Labour parties back then were all supporters of the British Empire and its exploitation of the peoples in it, pretending a moral superiority for any of the parties that supported suppression of self-determination movements would seem somewhat bizarre to any other than imperialists.
However, Graham was suggesting that voting for a Tory Party that prides itself on its "patriotism" and having withdrawn the UK from the EU in order "to take back control" is somehow less "nationalist" than voting for a party whose intention is to take Scotland back into the EU.
As I've pointed out before, those supporting indy are the "Unionists", while many of those opposing it are "Nationalists"
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Post by catfuzz on Dec 28, 2021 22:00:35 GMT
I know from previous erudite discussions on our alma mater that we can count several consummate linguistic experts amongst our number. I therefore raise an issue that has been bothering me for a while - how do you pronounce 'Tancred'. Is it 'tank red', 'tankered', 'tank reed', 'tonc red', 'ton red' - so many possibilities? There is of course the promising ‘Tan cred’ which personally feels right to me. |
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Post by catfuzz on Dec 28, 2021 22:08:41 GMT
shevii@"I don't think a simple poll or research to where people get their news covers the complexity of this point" Perhaps not-but I suggest that neither does " The Tabloids told them to vote that way", when they are not major sources of news consumption any more. To gently point out that the Daily Mail (a UK tabloid) is also one of the worlds most visited news websites (MailOnline) |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 28, 2021 22:10:29 GMT
This site offers two possible pronunciations of Tancred. One British, the other Indian. There may be many others, depending on the selection of vowels normal in different languages. www.definitions.net/definition/Tancred |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 22:12:01 GMT
crossbat11 @"recollections fade over time, but I always had you down a rugby and cricket man with some disdain for football." They do-and differ too !  Mine is that you never asked my view on football, being so engaged in describing your own. And so far as disdain goes you expressed considerable quantities of it when I-or anyone else-mentioned Rugby Union. Bit of a class thing for you as I recall. Memories memories eh?. All there still i presume-mouldering away. All that wasted breath. 
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Post by Danny on Dec 28, 2021 22:13:15 GMT
However he has had the at least temporary good fortune to be the receiver of a fed up population who 2yrs into Covid are very sensitive to anything from politicians that break the rules even if they have ignored those rules themselves. I think exactly what voters might think about this is important. if they think the politicians simply broke the rules foolishly, then they will forgive them. If they think the politicians broke those rules believing them to be pointless, then more and more are going to permanently switch away.
As ever, what 90% of the population think doesnt matter. 1/3 wont ever vote and maybe half will vote for their normal party regardless. Its always the swing voters who matter. Its not in the least clear what they think.
Data is rolling in that the government once again cried wolf over this latest wave of covid. People do eventually realise they have been deceived time after time.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 22:13:37 GMT
shevii @"I don't think a simple poll or research to where people get their news covers the complexity of this point" Perhaps not-but I suggest that neither does " The Tabloids told them to vote that way", when they are not major sources of news consumption any more. To gently point out that the Daily Mail (a UK tabloid) is also one of the worlds most visited news websites (MailOnline) Fair point. I haven,t got the energy just now but will try dig out the data on UK news consumption sources. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 22:16:11 GMT
Can I suggest the following alternative names for the posting ranks? 
reserved chatty loquacious garrulous ubiquitous |
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