|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 28, 2021 16:04:30 GMT
Looks like AW's "cesspit" has just seeped under the door.  I can picture his knowing smile. I am assuming you are referring to football entering the conversation. Given all the work the sport has done on inclusion, the national team's stand against racism and greater emphasis on the women's game football is now seen as part of the progressive movement - its the national sport of the PSRL. |
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 28, 2021 16:12:19 GMT
There is a new You Gov poll reported in the Guardian. It suggests 203 seats for the Conservatives under Johnson, with 60 more when Sunak is mentioned. Oh my, seems pretty clear the knives will be out soon. Not necessarily. Sunak is doing a reasonably good job as chancellor, I doubt that he would want to take on his boss at this stage. If anyone might take on Johnson it would be Truss, as she was a remainer and would presumably get the backing of the 'remaining remainers' in the Tory party as well as many brexiters. Sunak is effective, but I'm not sure that his support base is as wide as that of Truss - I suspect it isn't. |
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 28, 2021 16:15:44 GMT
Once again, the radio 4 current affairs presenters are trying to raise up the image of far-right and/or populist Tories. Today on World at One, we have Jonny Dymond giving an unashamed boost for Liz Truss. He interviews her supporters, minimises her failures in ministerial jobs, and doesn`t probe into her big changes in political opinion - from LibDem to Tory, Remainer to pro-Brexit, or dialect spoken. When I believe most UK people disapprove of the recent Australia-UK trade deal, due to its lowering of our import standards and unfair jettisoning of our farmers` livelihoods, J.Dymond can report it as "an international job well done" [1.26 pm today]. It was IMHO arrogant of Dymond to seamlessly join most present producers in abandoning the long years of political neutrality at the BBC. He could have worded the objectionable phrase "some Brexiteers say an international job well done". Truss is MP for NorfolkSW - and has often been referred to locally as 'the Tory Trollop' in view of her extramarital activities! Yawn. The private life of MPs is of little interest to me - their political views and ability to do the job are of considerably more interest. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 16:17:52 GMT
Lulemon, More than likely because an old-fashioned, working-class insult “trollop” was included in references to the brilliant Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss.
It all made sense when I discovered an article (from that left wing paper the Daily Mail) which mentioned the Tory MP she had an affair with.
Of course, it’s a free world (sort of) so I’m not bothered what she does outside of work. I am concerned that she isn’t up to her job though.
|
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 28, 2021 16:19:10 GMT
Lululemon I couldn't envisage any circumstances where voting Tory would be an option. Even where the local incumbent MP was someone like Dr Sarah Wollaston I would rather vote for a progressive party alternative and wait for the decent Tory to come to their senses and leave the tory party like the aforementioned Doctor. Same here. I will vote for the Anti Tory candidate. If that's Lib Dem or Green fine. I would vote independent as long as it wasn't a disaffected/disqualified Tory in disguise or an England first type candidate. I'm afraid after 10 years of ideologically fuelled austerity, some of it also embracing idologically fuelled Brexiting, followed by 2 years of totally amoral me me me Johsonianism, if we don't get the Tories out in 2024 we can say goodbye to our public services and tradition of social concern for the elderly, poor, sick and disabled. It's vital to me so an anti-Tory tactical vote it is. Me too. Tactical voting is the way to go. Unfortunately I live in a rock solid Tory seat in arch-Tory Royal Berkshire, so whichever alternative I select it's very unlikely to win, but I still intend to vote. Many people have died to protect our democracy and not voting is an insult to them. |
|
|
|
Post by paulnish on Dec 28, 2021 16:20:49 GMT
Paul: He doesn’t do “jokes”. (Unless snide insults count.) I think he has genuinely made a mistake- it happens. Can I also say that I love that you contribute here after you fell out of love with the old ukpr? I will not be the only one who appreciates how you and the girls took the piss out of the star system!! |
|
|
|
Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 28, 2021 16:21:33 GMT
Sadly, yesterday evening, in west PSRL, a team from the south coast arrived, along with a referee born in the same south coast town. The result of the match was fairly predictable.
|
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 28, 2021 16:22:17 GMT
Looks like AW's "cesspit" has just seeped under the door. I can picture his knowing smile. I am assuming you are referring to football entering the conversation. Given all the work the sport has done on inclusion, the national team's stand against racism and greater emphasis on the women's game football is now seen as part of the progressive movement - its the national sport of the PSRL. Yawn. Woke evangelism. |
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 28, 2021 16:25:43 GMT
I can think of only one circumstance in which I would vote for the Conservative or equivalent, it would be where a fascist like Le Pen might win if I did not. Given that our system of elections is so different to the French, I would spoil my paper if I had to, to avoid the Conservative. Well, at least a fascist would being in more socialist policies that the Tories, wedded as they are to the Victorian idea of "rich man in his castle, poor man at his gate, the Lord made them high and lowly and divided their estate". |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 16:26:31 GMT
Looks like AW's "cesspit" has just seeped under the door. I can picture his knowing smile. I am assuming you are referring to football entering the conversation. Why . ? Have another read . I was waiting for the Ladies of the board to comment -I'm sure they will be along soon. |
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 28, 2021 16:28:07 GMT
There is a new You Gov poll reported in the Guardian. It suggests 203 seats for the Conservatives under Johnson, with 60 more when Sunak is mentioned. Oh my, seems pretty clear the knives will be out soon. And here it is: www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/27/boris-johnson-a-drag-on-tories-and-sunak-would-do-better-poll-showsAll seems a bit contrived: Labour have a 7-point lead if you just mention party names, but if you helpfully remind people Boris Johnson is PM, it rises to 12 points. And if you suggest he's repalced by SunaK this falls to 3 points. And to quote the article: "...other potential leadership rivals the foreign secretary, Liz Truss, and the levelling up secretary, Michael Gove, fared worse than Johnson, with the former estimated to lose 40 more seats and the latter 70 seats more." OK, but many people don't know Truss that well. Once she takes over she'll try and make out she is the new Mrs Thatcher - we now that May failed spectacularly in that, but I feel Truss is a lot more self-confident as a public speaker. |
|
|
|
Post by hireton on Dec 28, 2021 16:28:22 GMT
Following on from my post about UK elections in May 2022, I've been thinking about key events and issues between now and then and their possible impact on Johnson and Tory electoral prospects.
The following have come to mind in no particular order:
Introduction of nearly full UK border controls on imports from the EU on 1/1/22 which will increase friction and costs at the border.
Inflation and cost of living. Inflation seems to set to continue to be significantly higher than the 2% target. There are likely to be notable increases in energy prices, rail prices in March, and possible increases from UK border control changes.
UK wide UK Government mandated tax rise in April to fund health and social care policy in England ( with Barnett consequentials in the rest of the UK but with no necessary link to health and social care)
Covid - anybody's guess at the moment. Johnson's English gamble may pay off or backfire. Th pandemic may recede or get worse again.
Economy - has looked to be getting sluggish again but perhaps a New Year bounce if covid recedes quickly as an issue? UK Government announced on Christmas Eve that it was relaxing immigration controls in key sectors (health, social care and agriculture) which may help tackle some staffing problems.
Levelling up: White Paper expected in the New Year. It could be a positive for the Tory Government but given the local of clarity evident from the outset about what it means and the huge range of issues it covers it will be a difficult trick to pull off. The Treasury spiked the social care policy and the England railway policy and may be getting their claws into the White Paper as well. Reports that Gove is in battle with Sunak over Gove's proposal to replace local high street business rates in England with an online sales tax ( which would be reported another Tory tax rise of course).Another report is that another main proposal in the White Paper will the introduction of elected mayors (or governors in shire areas) throughout England as an essential step in levelling up (proposals on major local government reform especially one which impacts on perceptions of local identity and the status/role of councillors are brave especially when a Tory government will be trying to rally the Tory faithful in local authorities across England).
Brexit: ongoing negotiations on the NI Protocol and other issues will almost certainly exacerbate tensions in the parliamentary Tory party.
Partygate: unlikely to end well for Johnson in any event and Sue Gray does not have a reputation of taking prisoners.
Joker in the pack: Lord Geidt who, if I was in no 10, has been ominously silent.
There are probably more items on the positive side for the Tories but overall it looks to me that the lead up to the May elections will be though very choppy waters for Johnson.
|
|
|
|
Post by James E on Dec 28, 2021 16:31:06 GMT
There is a new You Gov poll reported in the Guardian. It suggests 203 seats for the Conservatives under Johnson, with 60 more when Sunak is mentioned. Oh my, seems pretty clear the knives will be out soon. Not necessarily. Sunak is doing a reasonably good job as chancellor, I doubt that he would want to take on his boss at this stage. If anyone might take on Johnson it would be Truss, as she was a remainer and would presumably get the backing of the 'remaining remainers' in the Tory party as well as many brexiters. Sunak is effective, but I'm not sure that his support base is as wide as that of Truss - I suspect it isn't. It is no longer possible for another Tory MP to 'take on' or chalenge for the leadership, as they changed the rules more than 20 years ago. www.newstatesman.com/the-explainer/2021/12/how-could-conservative-mps-remove-boris-johnson-as-leaderWhat could happen is a bid to remove Johnson, as happened to Ian Duncan-Smith in 2003. Only after this happens can others stand, and (if removed) Johnson himself would not be eligible for the leadership. |
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 28, 2021 16:31:14 GMT
colin "The latest survey of party members conducted by the Conservative Home website showed her ( Truss) as their favourite successor to Johnson, with Sunak second." This reiterates my hunch that Sunak hasn't a cat's chance in the netherworld of persuading the Tory membership of making him leader. Nice accountant type, there is no thing as an annoited future Tory leader! The Tory blue rinse brigade will back Truss just as they backed May. They will choose a woman over an Indian economist/banker any day of the week, irrespective of who is the most capable. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 16:32:27 GMT
paulnish
Thanks for your comments.
Paul
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 16:36:43 GMT
hireton Interesting list. re your @"There are probably more items on the positive side for the Tories" -I,m not so sure. And they need Covid to leave the agenda. The summer should help -but will it really disappear from the front pages? I think Cost of Living in general will be a big problem for them. And Energy costs after the April Cap adjustment will be Headlines-and not in a good way.
|
|
|
|
Post by tancred on Dec 28, 2021 16:38:46 GMT
In my opinion inflation, not Covid, is going to kill the government unless something is done quickly. I suspect that most of this inflation is cost-push, due to higher supply and logistical costs that have been brewing for some time and have now come to the fore. This being the case, even an interest rate rise will do little to control this type of inflation. There will be massive pressure on Sunak to do some giveaways or the government will be toast at the next election no matter who is PM. Eliminating VAT on consumer energy costs would be the obvious step, but will Sunak take it?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 16:39:26 GMT
Looks like AW's "cesspit" has just seeped under the door. I can picture his knowing smile. I know you don't like football, but that's a bit harsh, isn't it??? Eh ? I love it-as my extortionate Sky Sports bill constantly reminds me. |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Dec 28, 2021 16:42:52 GMT
Graham
"World War 2 is barely 75 years ago - not 90!"
Your knowledge of history is as poor as your categorisation of "isms". The "British Fascists" were formed in 1923,though merged into the British Union of Fascists in 1932. Both organisations had extensive support among the Tory Party (that's the one that you said you would vote for).
Mosley formed the "New Party" (forerunner of the BUF) in 1931, with 5 other Labour MPs - later joined by a Tory MP and a Liberal MP. Even your arithmetic should allow you to recognise that 1931 precedes 2021 by 90 years.
That you clearly have little comprehension of the political polarisation that existed in the 20s and 30s of last century surprises me not at all, given your belief that there has been no change in any political beliefs during the last 100 years, and that you prefer to vote for British Nationalist parties.
|
|
|
|
Post by jimjam on Dec 28, 2021 16:47:17 GMT
I thought Colin was referring to the comment about Liz Truss which I also think is inappropriate.
I wonder of the poster might consider editing out?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 16:53:30 GMT
I thought Colin was referring to the comment about Liz Truss which I also think is inappropriate. I wonder of the poster might consider editing out? Thanks Jim Jam-no surprises that you wrote this. .......anyway........how are you feeling about things. consistent VI lead-OM forecast-Tory economic competence lead gone-Cost of Living crisis to come. Happy New year is a distinct possibility -no ? Seriously-I respect your caution and rationality-How can Cons recover in your view ? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 16:53:41 GMT
I thought Colin was referring to the comment about Liz Truss which I also think is inappropriate. I wonder of the poster might consider editing out? So you believe the word “trollop” constitutes a descent into a “cesspit” do you? I know which I find most offensive, given the context of reported speech versus opinion, but as Colin suggested later, maybe we should wait for the “Ladies of the Board*” to comment. (* I’m a bit surprised that ladies are allowed on the board though.) |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Danny on Dec 28, 2021 16:53:57 GMT
O dear jib, i get tired of reading articles full of mistakes. For example, they say the vaccine works to prevent infections by delta but not so much omicron. Whereas vaccinated people were by now just as likely to catch delta as unvaccinated ones. Luckily delta is fast being eradiated by omicron, which since it is milder is great news. The vaccine couldnt do it, but omicron can. The article talks about antibody levels, whereas the real issue seems to be T cells.
Had scientists at the start said there would be no vaccine, then chances are this epidemic would have ended in 2020. No more would have died. We would all be wealthier. The promise of a vaccine, which incidentally hasnt worked terribly well, encouraged scientists to try to suppress the disease until it was ready. This failed, but without the vaccine promise they wouldn't have made this mistake. Only 30% of people in SA have been vaccinated and there isnt any point vaccinating the rest.
I quote from the article,
"Antibodies from people who had been infected, recovered, and then had two doses of vaccine also had reduced activity by 20- to 40-fold, which is much more compared with any other variants. But the reduction was less in people who had been infected, recovered, and then had two doses of vaccine, which shows that getting vaccinated even after you have been infected is useful." (sic) Glad they got their facts straight.
Johnson did gamble on Covid before (while trusting experts) and nearly lost his own life. I imagine that like myself, having had the bloody thing and being inclined to plan A managed spread, he found test and trace, vaccines and eternal lockdown had been foist upon him during his absence by the conservative government. And to keep his job he had to stand up in public and tell people convincingly he believed in the new plan.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 16:59:18 GMT
Giving it has polling relevance and CON leadership implications then an article from i (with MSN paywall free link)
Boris Johnson’s gamble on New Year Covid rules makes him popular with MPs but now he’s at mercy of the datawww.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/boris-johnson-s-gamble-on-new-year-covid-rules-makes-him-popular-with-mps-but-now-he-s-at-mercy-of-the-data/ar-AAScPEdPoints: 1/ On the data then as mentioned on the Covid specific thread the '400' number for London hospital admissions wasn't breached on Xmas Eve. Latest update 26Dec was 374 and various folks pointing out that London might be plateauing. In the original Covid wave (Spring'20) and Alpha wave (Jan'21) admissions in London peaked at over 800 per day (and stays in hospital are shorter with Omicron so admissions can be higher for similar levels of patients[1]). IE the decision was data driven (and see on Covid thread posts from days ago that eluded to the likelihood of NHS not being overwhelmed based on various facts about Omicron - although obviously 'human behaviour' is as always the trickiest 'variable') 2/ The CON MP rebellion to any lockdown would have been bigger than the Plan B measures and a lot of cabinet and payroll MPs would have objected. The only known lockdown fanatic in cabinet is Gove. However, Boris was possibly swayed more by his 'personal' objectives of political survival (and hopefully Rishi spelled out the economic cost of lockdowns and how many other areas need 'help' right now, eg energy bills), although the data doesn't justify a lockdown which due to 'behavioural fatigue', faster spreading of Omicron and awareness Omicron is less severe (notably if your vaccinated/boosted) has no guarantee of working anyway (it might 'mitigate' (ie spread out the impact on hospitals) but it probably would not 'suppress' Rt below 1 and lockdowns are not an 'exit' strategy) [1] See also on Covid specific thread the 'with' v 'from' issue of 'over reporting'. Another piece of data to look at is 'patients in mechanical ventilation beds' which has risen slightly to just over 200 compared to peaks of over 1,000 in the two previous waves and around 230 in the 'exit wave'. Sources: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=Londonwww.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/ |
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Dec 28, 2021 17:04:32 GMT
colinI too was puzzled too with your comment (mainly because it was in the middle of some cricket banter) but have seen what you were referring to now and agree. Probably needs @crofty to withdraw his remark as well now if he thought you were complaining about chit chat. With regard to Liz Truss not having good ratings I do wonder though whether she would be a tabloids' favourite and they would do everything in their power turn those ratings around around as well as ditching the softly softly with Starmer- maybe I'm just too sceptical about their moritvations and power. I have no idea how newspaper editors and owners think but you can't help but feel that someone who seems to me to be very right within even the Tory party might be a favourite of the tabloids. I suspect the Tory membership might still take note of the polling even if she is their preferred leader. It's a very different Tory party if they would not go for the fiscally conservative Sunak and risk all on someone who seems a bit economically Tea Party to me.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 17:20:10 GMT
colin I too was puzzled too with your comment (mainly because it was in the middle of some cricket banter) but have seen what you were referring to now and agree. Probably needs @crofty to withdraw his remark as well now if he thought you were complaining about chit chat. With regard to Liz Truss not having good ratings I do wonder though whether she would be a tabloids' favourite and they would do everything in their power turn those ratings around around as well as ditching the softly softly with Starmer- maybe I'm just too sceptical about their moritvations and power. I have no idea how newspaper editors and owners think but you can't help but feel that someone who seems to me to be very right within even the Tory party might be a favourite of the tabloids. I suspect the Tory membership might still take note of the polling even if she is their preferred leader. It's a very different Tory party if they would not go for the fiscally conservative Sunak and risk all on someone who seems a bit economically Tea Party to me. THe alleged influence of the printed press has been a topic of discussion before. My response has been to produce the reports and data on the places where people-particularly the young-get their news from. It isn't from the tabloids. So I discount that. |
|
|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 28, 2021 17:21:41 GMT
@ Colin
Completely got the wrong end of the stick of what you were referring to, and I completely missed the use of the term trollop in a previous post which I obviously don't condone - I thought you were making a light hearted comment.
Personally I don’t think what Truss does or doesn’t do in her personal life particularly matters; however, I do subscribe to the view that she is not up to the job.
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,376
|
Post by neilj on Dec 28, 2021 17:28:44 GMT
I suspect Starmer would prefer to be up against Truss than Sunak. I even think he would prefer to be up against Truss than Johnson
|
|
|
|
Post by jimjam on Dec 28, 2021 17:29:33 GMT
Colin,
That Lab lead is a tad encouraging but is 2% for economic competence
Starmer led Labour v Johnson led Cons.
2 cautionary notes for Labour supporters like myself:
First it is less than the VI lead Lab v Cons (could be from the same data set as the 39/32 Opinium).
Secondly, more importantly, it is for Johnson not Sunak or ANOther.
Tories need to ditch Johnson before the summer as after that the cabinet members, who can argue stability needed etc for now, will be tarnished by association.
It may be that 'not time for a change' message will be enough come 2024 for the Tories to get most seats.
Still the likely outcome imo but whether the Tories get enough to continue to lead the Government is a closer call.
On the other matter I think Alec's occasional advise to imagine it is the other party doing this applies and I know how I would react if it was said about a prominent Labour Party woman.
I also think it is sexist and don't need to wait for women posters to tell me; as acknowledging that those experiencing something (or from the same part of society) will have a greater insight should not be an excuse for abrogation.
|
|
|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 28, 2021 17:34:21 GMT
@ tancred
Yawn. Woke evangelism
Oh dear, that’s now you, Crofty and Crossbat11 down for re-education. Colin, by calling out the use of inappropriate sexist language can now be seem as an 'ally' to the cause (I have this down to the good influence of his granddaughter).
|
|
