steve
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Post by steve on Nov 3, 2024 7:13:57 GMT
neiljParty membership has of course collapsed in the 1950's there were nearly 3 million Tory party members, over a million Labour party ( six million if you include trade union affiliates).
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Nov 3, 2024 7:18:03 GMT
neiljParty membership has of course collapsed in the 1950's there were nearly 3 million Tory party members, over a million Labour party ( six million if you include trade union affiliates). True,but Labour still has 366,604 members, over a third of their peak in actual members, while tories are below a twentieth of theirs There's a huge difference in the scale of the fall |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 3, 2024 7:28:06 GMT
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Post by jimjam on Nov 3, 2024 7:29:23 GMT
Neil J,
Poor quality councillors as well, we have seem in my patch.
Same may well apply to Labour in many areas with a smaller pool to choose from.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 3, 2024 7:31:14 GMT
Places like Virginia, New Jersey and New Hampshire have moved around a lot more - although I concede they get polled a lot less than Pennsylvania which increases the risk of a single poll getting excessive attention. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 3, 2024 7:35:02 GMT
Which does support my observation of a degree of Trump weakness in Republican leaning but not rock solid states. Trump's numbers in places like Texas, Ohio and even Florida to some extent have not been stellar. Good enough to win but inconsistent with his competitiveness in all the swing states. But maybe the latter are genuinely behaving differently. I don't rule it out. |
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Post by alec on Nov 3, 2024 7:36:37 GMT
eor - "Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree." May as well as summarised this as 'the thick ones'. Oops! Am I allowed to say that? {Think I'm OK. I'm a rural bloke, so it's termed 'self parody'}
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Post by alec on Nov 3, 2024 7:40:19 GMT
Think I'm right is saying this is the second Iowa poll which shows a dramatic shift, so perhaps Tuesday is a surprise in store. Was also going to say that it's gratifying to see @merician's take on Trump (also to be fair, turk's). As some of our few RoC contributors at the moment it's good to see that they don't fall into the Farage idiocy. There are a few in the UK right that sidle up to Trump, and I think that's a huge mistake, that would pollute UK politics for years to come. It's good to some fundamental decency from the posters here, who put such things before a simplistic left/right reading of politics. Trump is a horror of a human being. Whatever our politics, we should be able to agree on that |
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Post by alec on Nov 3, 2024 7:41:53 GMT
pjw1961 - "Which does support my observation of a degree of Trump weakness in Republican leaning but not rock solid states. Trump's numbers on places like Texas, Ohio and even Florida to some extent have not been stellar. Good enough to win but inconsistent with his competitiveness in all the swing states. But maybe the latter are genuinely behaving differently. I don't rule it out." I posted a while back about Democrat activists online claiming they were getting lots of Republican registered switchers and claiming they could win the state. I discounted it as twitter chat, but may be there really is someone happening.
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Post by alec on Nov 3, 2024 7:44:52 GMT
Silver correlated state by state inflation with Harris +/- poll numbers -
Iowa has low inflation.
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Post by alec on Nov 3, 2024 7:49:20 GMT
This also might explain some of the voting patterns so far -
If accurate, it suggests early voting has significantly eaten into Republican on the day voters, theoretically substantially cutting their margin on Tuesdays in person ballots.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 3, 2024 7:52:44 GMT
New Scottish Parliament poll from Norstat: Constituency SNP 33% Labour 23% Tories 15% Reform 11% LibDems 10% Greens 6% List: SNP 29% Labour 22% Tories 14% Reform 11% Libdems 9% Greens 9% Seat projection: SNP 51 Labour 29 Tories 16 Reform 12 Lib Dems 11 Greens 10 Edit: Labour consituency vote share is -7 pts and List is -6pts since last Norstat poll in August So lets assume these numbers are a much more realistic measure of true support, because of the proportional nature of the elections. The leader then is the SNP, which is an independance/nationalist vote, which we can ignore for purposes of trying to draw lessons about England from this vote. SNP seen better days, but core vote hanging in there. So assuming SNP is a purely Scottish phenomenon, labour is leading conservative by about 3:2, which is around the westminster election result, suggesting no change in support and labour would get exactly the same stonking majority in an election tomorrow. But reform is snapping close on the conservative's heels, again as we would likely expect in an English election now. I'm not in the least clear what con can do to neutralise reform in the next four years. As of today I would expect more reform MPs at the next election, though does depend rather upon events and what Farage does right or wrong between now and then. I'd also expect libs to pick up more support, consolidating some seats where they are runners up. Those numbers look pretty awful for con under FPP. This rather contrasts to the situation in 2010, where it seemed likely a quick rerun would result in fewer libs, not more. Under FPP, tactical support will be critical and obviously was critical this year. Con risk falling below the threshold where FPP assists them as one of the two possible winners.
Problem with this analysis is what would happen to the SNP 1/3 share in extrapolating this to England. I'm asuming that in the absence of an issue of English independance from Westminster, it would break similarly to the rest of the spread, but the SNP has been described as the most left wing of the serious UK parties, so maybe nudging towards lab. On the other hand, Scotland is significantly more left wing than England, so maybe that bias would wash out in translation.
Cant help wondering that if England had a sensible left wing party akin to the SNP, it might be doing very well here. The recent budget seems to have been attacked on wholly specious grounds where it has mostly tidied up some loopholes allowing government money to go to the rich. Although all the media seems to have piled in following this lead, the budget itself may have cut through to actual leftish voters that labour has set about actually balancing the national budget and reconstructing state services, which resdistribute wealth to the poorer half (maybe 3/4) of the population. i wonder just what voters think on the injustice of taxing farmers with estates valued above 2 milion or so? Maybe they think, about time?
But still nothing done about the glaring loophole you can give away as much as you like tax free, so long as its 7 years before you die. Or to a charity, which can still benefit your family so long as it falls within the rather loose rules on the nature of charities.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 3, 2024 7:58:37 GMT
The one thing you can clearly say about polling on the US election is that we cannot tell from the polling who is going to win. With a side order based upon hundreds of legal objections to the election already lodged, that if the republicans lose they will not accept gracefully. I find it so very amusing that while US politics always portrays their opponent as an evil commie, its highly likely a proportion of this internal US dissent and disaffection with the US state and constitution has been whipped up by Russia as part of its world propaganda campaign. Presumably China too is having a go. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 3, 2024 8:01:31 GMT
neiljParty membership has of course collapsed in the 1950's there were nearly 3 million Tory party members, over a million Labour party ( six million if you include trade union affiliates). True,but Labour still has 366,604 members, over a third of their peak in actual members, while tories are below a twentieth of theirs There's a huge difference in the scale of the fall Well maybe, but you could conlude if any party support falls from millions willing to pay to join to just hundreds of thousands, it simplay has no real appeal to actual voters. Negligible numbers actually believe in either lab or con, or anyone else. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 3, 2024 8:08:16 GMT
Which does support my observation of a degree of Trump weakness in Republican leaning but not rock solid states. Trump's numbers in places like Texas, Ohio and even Florida to some extent have not been stellar. Good enough to win but inconsistent with his competitiveness in all the swing states. But maybe the latter are genuinely behaving differently. I don't rule it out. I recall some journalists once taking a long view of US politics looking for general principles. One was the big proportion of americans who dont care at all whats happening outside the US, or indeed their own state. Another was a systematic desire to deliberately prevent any party getting control of the whole federal government. On this last score, the battle for control of the congress is looking tight, and the question is whether republicans can control both the senate and the house. So any american whose goal is to prevent one party having all three elements, might be thinking he needs to vote dem in the presidential election. Otherwise, Roe v Wade and the right wing drift of the supreme court, has this really been figured into polling? Pollsters rely on having representative samples, based upon past results. Are these accurate or have some of the fundamentals changed? |
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Post by Danny on Nov 3, 2024 8:12:50 GMT
eor - "Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree." May as well as summarised this as 'the thick ones'. Oops! Am I allowed to say that? {Think I'm OK. I'm a rural bloke, so it's termed 'self parody'} I dont care if you say it, but I think its wrong. I dont think its intelligence so much as self reinforcing groups which think a certain way, and if you dont belong to that group then the influences on you take you a different way. My favourite statistic from the ONS: 10% non straight in the youngest age group, 1% non straight in the oldest. Fundamentally I cannot believe these groups are different, but the old ones are denying their sexuality because of social training. |
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Post by Danny on Nov 3, 2024 8:16:32 GMT
Trump is a horror of a human being. Whatever our politics, we should be able to agree on that I really doubt he is. What he perhaps shares with Johnson is a certain honesty about his beliefs. Which have a real resonance amongst certain voters, and quite a big chunk at that. The real lie is in pretending there arent plenty of people who think like him, and that is dangerous to political stability - as we see. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 3, 2024 8:19:01 GMT
In what does a real bung look like.
King and Prince William’s estates ‘making millions from charities and public services’
Duchies of Cornwall and Lancaster likely to make at least £50m from leasing land to services such as NHS and schools, according to investigation
Charles Windsor in the normal Windsor clan spirit of openness and transparency has declined to say how much, if any tax, he's volunteered to pay on the profiteering.
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Post by jimjam on Nov 3, 2024 8:20:29 GMT
At the last GE one knock up sticks with me more than any other.
The voter in their early 70's was very pleasant and apologetic.
Having voted Tory all their life they intended to switch to Labour (2 way marginal in this seat) and told our canvassers of this intention, hence the knock up.
When it came to it, though, they just couldn't and stuck with the Conservatives.
For me this is something pollsters can be aware of but never measure as the response was honest as was the intention but the degree of last minute switch back highly variable.
How many of these Harris Republicans see through their genuine intention will determine the size of Harris' victory imo.
Apologies for the repeat of comments I have made twice before in recent months but imo Roe v Wade and women voters will do for Trump.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Nov 3, 2024 8:30:47 GMT
Another excellent thread from Independent tax expert Dan Neidle, he really is the go to man for tax affairs In short he warned back in May that private schools were encouraging parents to pay in advance to avoid Labour's VAT hike, but structuring these schemes really badly. That they could have avoided the VAT, but due to the incompetence of the private schools and their associations many of these schemes will fail threadreaderapp.com/thread/1852710667993715009.html?utm_campaign=topunroll |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 3, 2024 8:34:37 GMT
In what does a real bung look like. King and Prince William’s estates ‘making millions from charities and public services’ Duchies of Cornwall and Lancaster likely to make at least £50m from leasing land to services such as NHS and schools, according to investigation Charles Windsor in the normal Windsor clan spirit of openness and transparency has declined to say how much, if any tax, he's volunteered to pay on the profiteering. Come off it, if that land was controlled by a private individual, no one would bat an eye at them charging as much as they could for the use of it. And then what's the big deal about state money going to to support the royal family? Thats how it works, shouldn't be at all surprising. No one should be criticising particular royals because they are caught up in the mess of how the Uk is ruled by one of two political parties having absolute power but blaming stuff on anyone else they can if it goes wrong (including both the EU and the royal family at times). Perfectly legitimate to want to abolish or reform the monarchy, but beside the point to attack particular members for carrying out their roles in that organisation while we choose to retain it. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 3, 2024 8:39:02 GMT
At the last GE one knock up sticks with me more than any other. The voter in their early 70's was very pleasant and apologetic. Having voted Tory all their life they intended to switch to Labour (2 way marginal in this seat) and told our canvassers of this intention, hence the knock up. When it came to it, though, they just couldn't and stuck with the Conservatives. For me this is something pollsters can be aware of but never measure as the response was honest as was the intention but the degree of last minute switch back highly variable. How many of these Harris Republicans see through their genuine intention will determine the size of Harris' victory imo. Apologies for the repeat of comments I have made twice before in recent months but imo Roe v Wade and women voters will do for Trump. I agree Roe v Wade is unlikely to be properly acounted in polling because its just too recent. Re last minute decision making, I think it applies both ways, its also about traditional republicans thinking at the last minute they just cant stick with the party ticket. If that recent poll puting dems higher is genuine, it might be exactly because of last minute resignation to having to switch to dem. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 3, 2024 8:46:23 GMT
"Come off it, if that land was controlled by a private individual, no one would bat an eye at them charging as much as they could for the use of it."
But it isn't and if a private individual owned it they couldn't decide what if any tax they chose to pay on the profits!
Your contrarian nature does result in you spouting some absurd nonsense!
And while we're at it trump has records of sexual predatory behaviour, other criminality and racism going back deades.
He's an appalling human being.
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Post by barbara on Nov 3, 2024 8:49:59 GMT
Sounds great to me! Here's hoping. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 3, 2024 9:19:11 GMT
barbaraI don't see anything exceptionally horrendous, mind you if the Labour party hadn't ruled out meaningful improvement in our relationship with the European union, the subsequent massive economic boost to the U.K. would largely rule out the need for any significant tax increases. But if you're going to " make Brexit work " you'll have to live with the damage you're inflicting on the country.
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Post by alec on Nov 3, 2024 9:19:26 GMT
Danny - "I really doubt he is." That's OK then. Best tell the women he raped that he's just a bit misunderstood.
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Post by guymonde on Nov 3, 2024 9:45:56 GMT
Neil J, Poor quality councillors as well, we have seem in my patch. Same may well apply to Labour in many areas with a smaller pool to choose from. As a labour councillor, I can say that far too many of them are unworthy. That applies to Con as well as Lab |
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Post by shevii on Nov 3, 2024 9:54:42 GMT
I was getting excited but worth pointing out that Iowa is only 6 EC votes so to get back to being exciting we'd have to assume that "gold standard" polling can never be wrong (which we know is not true) and then to extrapolate some sort of meaning onto other states, either currently swing or in other states that have been missed.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 3, 2024 10:24:58 GMT
BBC south east interviewing someone from East Sussex council. That conservative observed they just got 5 million for road maintenance, but they need 300 million. He observed their income is largely based upon business rates, but the biggest payer in the county is Tescos, there isnt any major industry. Whereas what they do have is the biggest concentration of over 85 year olds in the country, and 20% over 65 (which he said is not taken into account regarding funding). Debate continues whether or not redevelopment of Eastbourne hospital is on or off. (which is incidentally already a relatively modern building, so you might wonder why it needs redeveloping. It may have something to do with the NHS centralising services forcing patients to travel longer and longer distances, which is something labour has said it wants to end.)
Meanwhile Michael Gove interviewed on R4 was attacking taxation of private schools. Which the interviewer ribbed him about since in the past he had supported it, funny how political expediency changes views. However, the debate suggested this IS a policy which has riled up a number of people, and I think with some justification because its something which actually saves the state money in educating those kids.
And a number of people attacking inheritance tax on farms. Which argument fundamentally seems to be that because farmers are poor they shouldnt have to pay taxes the same as the rest of us. No one of course mentioning that if a farmer passes on ownership of the farm before they die, they wont pay any tax at all.
Also seems to me that given how poor a return there is on a farm, what exactly does a farmer do who has three children? Obviously cannot leave all three the farm if it will only support one family. Does this mean every such farmer basically has to disinherit the other two children and leave everything to just one? Is this problem what really lies behind farmers concern, because the tax money might instead have gone towards a gesture towards the disinherited children?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 3, 2024 10:40:46 GMT
Danny - "I really doubt he is." That's OK then. Best tell the women he raped that he's just a bit misunderstood. My point is its entirely possible he is a pretty typical human being rather than 'a horror of a human being' you posted. The real reason there is so much publicity about his activities is precisely because he has chosen to run for president and therefore his opponents have dug up anything they can. Most people will not run for office, and one reason is they would not want their murky past deeds to be publicised. people are not saints. One website suggests approx 1/3 of the Uk male population has a significant criminal conviction. Most of those happened before the age of 30. Looking at a couple of web pages there seems to be a consistent number of around 12 million records, but different organisations take a different view on what this represents. The home office records only go back to 1995 when they were computerised, so very well might have missed peak offending years for our oldest citizens, but include records of people suspected of crimes. The other website did a case study based upon all people born in 1953. |
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