4 July 2024 : General Election - The Results

[steve]

Your friends say a lot about you.

[bardin1]

Well that was a grim night for the SNP. Expected a beating but that was beyond what I thought would happen (well done to Graham for being closest to the truth of it)

My own seat bucked the trend - Angus supposed to have gone with the tide but Doogan held it.

I feel surprisingly sanguine about it - possibly due to lack of sleep!

Glad to see Truss, Mogg, Shapps and Ross departing. I'm glad Hunt kept his seat- hopefully he can lead the Tories to a more one nation approach.

I think Swinney will stay until the 2026 election (when the SNP from a high vote are almost bound to get another beating). I son't think many wil blame him as there is little else he could have done in terms of campaigning


Let's hope that Starmer delivers - the early signs are good - I think Starmer and Reeves give some confidence. I really hope they can put some meat on their broad brush policies but also that they can recast the electoral system and do some long term consensual planning.

[athena]

Does anyone know turnout?

[moby]

Jul 5, 2024 8:30:04 GMT athena said:

Does anyone know turnout?

60%

[pjw1961]

After a few posts in the early hours I decided to go a watch the thing unfold uninterrupted and did so from about 1.30 to 5.00. I went to bed when Labour reached a majority, so I saw Galloway, Shapps and Mordaunt, but missed Rees Mogg and Truss.

I think the biggest surprise was the scale of the SNP collapse in Scotland, which I was not expecting - a true reversal of 2015.

UNS was routed (Peter Kellner is probably lying in a darkened room somewhere) - the Lab/Con swing applied to the 2019 results would have led to a hung parliament - and JamesE's comments on proportional losses fully vindicated.

Jury still out on MRP when it comes to both the overall results and especially individual constituencies. For example the Survation one had Conservatives holding Chelmsford with Labour second and the Lib Dems third, which was a long way from what actually happened.

I will put some thoughts on strengths and dangers of the McSweeny strategy in a separate post.

[neilj]

For anyone who thinks Farage can be trusted, I've a bridge to sell you

x.com/harry_horton/status/1809005453742882836
A week ago Nigel Farage said one of his volunteers, George Jones, would play no further part in Reform's campaign after he was filmed calling the pride flag “degenerate” and comparing LGBT people to paedophiles.

Here he is tonight at Reform UK's election party in Clacton.

[steve]

Labour win Poole


By 18 votes

[pete]

Jul 5, 2024 6:57:29 GMT domjg said:

One of the biggest stories from this has to be the LD wipeout of tory seats in the south. I need to double check but there doesn't appear to be a tory seat left in Oxfordshire and Berkshire. Along with Banbury and Reading West going Lab this is existential for the tories. David Cameron's old seat of Witney, Johnson's (and Hesletine's for before him) old seat of Henley and May's ex Maidenhead seat all gone.. Remarkable.

1 Tory MP left in Gloucestershire.

[Deleted]

Jul 5, 2024 9:10:24 GMT pete said:

Jul 5, 2024 6:57:29 GMT domjg said:

One of the biggest stories from this has to be the LD wipeout of tory seats in the south. I need to double check but there doesn't appear to be a tory seat left in Oxfordshire and Berkshire. Along with Banbury and Reading West going Lab this is existential for the tories. David Cameron's old seat of Witney, Johnson's (and Hesletine's for before him) old seat of Henley and May's ex Maidenhead seat all gone.. Remarkable.

1 Tory MP left in Gloucestershire.

Disappointing.

[Deleted]

Thought John Swinney spoke well. Off to walk the girls and then celebrate new government/decimation with an old colleague and a latte and cake

[matt126]

The result of the election matched expectations but there were a few suprises not picked up by pollsters:
1) Labour losses and near losses to independents, due to Gaza conflict. Ashworth Losing seat and Streeting in very close call. This was not expected to happen,
2) Reform polling a few points lower than the polls predicted. Was there a swing between reform to Con at last minute or were polls over estimating Reform support.
3) SNP performing so poorly in seat share in Scotland
4) Lib Dem VI a bit higher than predicted. Not far behind Reform VI. This not picked up in polls. Strong performance in terms of seats gained.

[thylacine]

Is he going to have a brolly this time !

[thylacine]

Jul 5, 2024 9:18:40 GMT matt126 said:

The result of the election matched expectations but there were a few suprises not picked up by pollsters:
1) Labour losses and near losses to independents, due to Gaza conflict. Ashworth Losing seat and Streeting in very close call. This was not expected to happen,
2) Reform polling a few points lower than the polls predicted. Was there a swing between reform to Con at last minute or were polls over estimating Reform support.
3) SNP performing so poorly in seat share in Scotland
4) Lib Dem VI a bit higher than predicted. Not far behind Reform VI. This not picked up in polls. Strong performance in terms of seats gained.

We did discuss Streeting and Ilford North and a possible threat on this board.

[keithp]

Conservatives outdid their 1906 result: 121 seats vs 156 and 250 seats lost vs 246. The latter means that this is the most expensive election ever due to the loss of office payments.

Still not as bad as Kim Campbell.

Sorry, I fell asleep earlier...

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jonathon Pie...

youtu.be/aYMy2qdNPF0

... says Thank You!

[thylacine]

He has Akshata on brolly guard this time

[pjw1961]

Morgan McSweeny's strategy for Labour had, as I imagine most will know, two main elements, both of which aimed to maximise the effectiveness of the Labour vote under FPTP:
(a) minimise campaigning and have no 'Get out the vote' in 'safe' Labour seats and divert resources to winnable ones
(b) prevent campaigning and GOTV in seats deemed unwinnable and again divert resources into winnable ones

To force this to happen, Labour candidates had to be controlled and coerced. Aside from the obvious factional element to replacing certain left-wing candidates with ones loyal to the leadership, that was also about making sure they did as they were told; those likely to prove rogue were not encouraged. Even more than that, it led to the practically universal practice of preventing CLPs in non-target seats from selecting their own candidates. Left to their own devices, many CLPs would have gone for someone local, who would naturally have wanted to campaign in their own area. With the parachuted in candidates they were forced to sign up to running as paper candidates only and to do as they were told. To be fair, many were no more happy about it than the ordinary members.

The ordinary activist could not be controlled in this way, but the party was able to cut off access to the records of canvass returns held on the central system and deny resources such as money, leaflets, etc., beyond the basic, thus rendering campaigning difficult.

The positive effect of all this was seen in the General Election, with Labour hoovering up seats and their vote working very effectively under FPTP. It cannot be denied that the plan worked and worked brilliantly.

But there are several downsides:

(i) With the dealignment of voters, there really aren't any such thing as safe seats any more (as the Conservatives, Lib Dems and SNP have all found out over the last decade). Neglecting them and running no GOTV operations will have contributed to the drop in the Labour vote in most of the seats it already held, and perhaps to some of the losses. There were stories during the campaign of Labour MPs hugely frustrated that they were not being allowed to campaign in their own seats when they knew that Reform, Independents or, in a few cases, the Greens were eating into their vote. If this type of neglect were maintained these seats would rapidly become at risk.

(ii) In non-target seats to be on the end of the constant demands to go elsewhere and to have resources pulled, was hugely demotivating. At the end of the day, Labour members are not an army that has to obey orders, they are volunteers doing this as they see it as a service to the country and their own beliefs. For many travelling outside of their own area was not a practical option due to other commitments. I was very annoyed to get a text saying there would be no campaigning in Braintree or Witham on polling day and our two candidates were being sent to Harlow - it really pisses you off (pardon my language) and I can see Labour losing a lot of members over this now the election is over. (Incidentally, when I said that the local CLPs took counter-measures, we knew there was a good chance of having our access to canvass information cut off, so the day the election was announced someone got into the system, downloaded the whole lot and saved it onto a local server. Lost some functionality, but at least we had the information.)

The good news is the the next GE will not be like this. Labour will be defending what it holds, not trying to make gains. Therefore it seems likely that Labour MPs will be allowed to campaign in their own patch (unless it is super-super safe) and those of us without a Labour MP will probably be happy enough to go and help out the nearest one.

[steve]

As Sunakered accepts defeat and toddles off to see Jug Ears the difference between this dignified approach and the ranting, coup organising, whingathon of the fascist toddler in the U.S. is difficult to ignore

[keithp]

Jul 5, 2024 9:53:30 GMT steve said:

As Sunakered accepts defeat and toddles off to see Jug Ears the difference between this dignified approach and the ranting, coup organising, whingathon of the fascist toddler in the U.S. is difficult to ignore

Make American Ghastly Again

[mark61]

I don't know what the complexion of the Parliamentary Conservative party now is between right and centre right, but if they don't change the way they elect their leader the Membership will hand them the most right wing candidate on offer who will chase the reform vote, rather than a Pragmatist who would probably realise the better option would be to try and win back voters from Lib Dem and soft Labour voters. 

I don't think the first option would lead to anything other than a long time in the Political wilderness,  Farage will always be able to out-Farage them, and his Supporters like being led by him, his approach chimes with who they are, he looks like them and sounds like them. They are not going to desert him for a slightly paler offer from a Party led by  Braverman, Jenrick or Badenoch.   When a Party suffers a terrible defeat, they often seem to draw the conclusion that what was wrong with their Electoral offer of Ham and Eggs, was that it wasn't Double Ham and Eggs.

[graham]

Jul 4, 2024 21:54:44 GMT Dave said:

Jul 4, 2024 21:43:40 GMT RAF said:

If Lab win in Bexley that's one of the signs of the end of the world lol.

I was brought up in Eltham, south-east London.  It was its own constituency but now it's morphed into Eltham and Chislehurst, which trust me, is a weird and implausible geographic entity.  Yet it's shown as being Labour.  

In 1945 Labour winning Chislehurst was a totemic result, remembered decades later.  Well, it looks like Chislehurst is going Labour again, whether it wants to or not.     SE9 rocks! 

Chislehurst also went Labour in 1966.

[pjw1961]

I've just seen Ed Davey's 5 a.m. dad dancing on the news - blimey.

[alec]

mark61 -"When a Party suffers a terrible defeat, they often seem to draw the conclusion that what was wrong with their Electoral offer of Ham and Eggs, was that it wasn't Double Ham and Eggs."

Or in this case, gammon & chips.

[keithp]

Starmer has been invited to see the king

[pjw1961]

Congratulations to mandolinist on getting Bristol Central correct.

Regarding another seat over which there was much debate in these pages I notice that the Liberal Democrats gained South Cambrigeshire with 25,704 votes (46.8%) while Labour only got 6,106 (11.1%), thus confirming what most of us felt was the correct tactical vote there.

[thylacine]

Kemi Badenoch early favourite to be next Tory leader. We can only hope, as the Tories seemingly continue their self immolation.

[shevii]

It's been a totally bizarre election.

Story of the night has simply been the Tory collapse with only 6.8 million voters and everyone getting a slice of the cake (Lab, LD, Green, Reform and even, on a terrible night for them, SNP).

I looked at a handful of Tory results and to some extent the Tories got away with it. The ones they held they only held because there was no obvious challenger. Mostly this was not because there was any split in the alternative to the Tories vote (Chingford being a rare example where there was with a Labour unforced error) but because they simply weren't on the map for anyone to consider working the seat and gaining the tactical vote. Greens targeting the two Tory seats that they won was a case of Tories being beaten if the centrist/LOC voter had a clear clue on who to vote for to get the Tories out. The LD/Lab split vote in most of the ones that stayed Tory isn't down to one of those two being at fault (Wimbledon and Southport sorted themselves out anyway) but because no-one thought to work the seat and the electorate were none the wiser about a tactical vote.

A Labour landslide on 33.8% of the vote is quite incredible. I share a lot of Crofty's concerns though. In my constituency Lisa Nandy's vote has gone down from 29,000 in 2017 to 21,000 in 2019 to 19,000 in 2024 and Reform is now the challenger on 24% of the vote. I have a gut feeling that similar places have the same story- Reform second almost everywhere in Crofty's neck of the wood as far as I could tell.

Labour probably have some padding in that 33.8%- low turnout and a free vote in 2024 that might be squeezed come a hard right challenge be it Reform or Tory or merger of the two, but within that 33.8% there still would have been tactical voting for Labour and perhaps more importantly a get rid of the Tories vote in play that won't be there if low political attention voters don't see the difference. There would have been some tactical voting squeeze in that low Lab percentage (certainly the two Green gains against Tories and no doubt a lot in the LD gains) that maybe makes the 33.8% less important.

So I think Labour can enjoy the moment but should be very concerned about the underlying voter volatility when they start from such a low base of voter numbers at 9.6 million. They need to deliver over the next 5 years and not with a spreadsheet that says hospital waiting times have gone down by 5% but with something that the political disengaged voter will notice. I'd always thought they would get two terms but if the Tories or Reform sort themselves out then all bets are off.

[roznewgirl]

Jul 5, 2024 10:25:22 GMT pjw1961 said:

I've just seen Ed Davey's 5 a.m. dad dancing on the news - blimey.

I was doing a late night feed and it made us both vomit!

[RAF]

Looking over some seats in my area, Labour only failed to win Bromley and Biggin Hill by 202 votes (34% to 33.4%). Reform did win 17.5% though.

[barbara]

Jul 5, 2024 10:46:37 GMT shevii said:

So I think Labour can enjoy the moment but should be very concerned about the underlying voter volatility when they start from such a low base of voter numbers at 9.6 million. They need to deliver over the next 5 years and not with a spreadsheet that says hospital waiting times have gone down by 5% but with something that the political disengaged voter will notice. I'd always thought they would get two terms but if the Tories or Reform sort themselves out then all bets are off.

I think today is the apex of the Reform story. The Party has grown (as did the Brexit referendum) as a result of austerity, of the failure over 14 years to tackle fundamental issues of migration, housing, good jobs, health, care etc etc. The hatred of the Tories gave Farage his successes last night.
If Labour govern, as they've promised, for all the people and everywhere in the country,  if they deliver levelling up and improve the public services that people rely on and the reducton of the dog whistle of the culture wars then the attraction of Reform will wane and people will no longer feel the need to look to extremes.

It's a tall order but I think Starmer absolutely understands this.

In 5 years time Farage will be yesterday's man.