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Post by bardin1 on Jun 16, 2024 16:04:22 GMT
As promised I have started this thread so those interested can make their predictions for the outcome of the UK general election in Scottish seats
Please just put your predictions here, and I will go first:
SNP 27
Labour 22
Liberal Democrats 5
Conservatives 3
I think SNP will lose out in the urban areas to Labour. There are a lot of marginal seats and redrawn boundaries so hard to predict some seats. I'm hopeing to see David Mundell and Douglas Ross go down in flames, would like to see Douglas Alexander not get in, but he'll probably scrape through.
I'm predicting the Conservatives to hold on to their Dumfries/ borders seats too, as like the Highlands and islands they tend to vote their own way
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2024 19:22:38 GMT
SNP 22 LAB 27 LD 5 CON 3  |
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Post by jib on Jun 16, 2024 21:41:46 GMT
Could go either way - both Lab and SNP stuck in the 20s I'd say.
A lot riding on the results in Scotland and Labour will want their Triple Crown desperately.
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Post by graham on Jun 17, 2024 9:39:08 GMT
SNP 18
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 18, 2024 13:42:11 GMT
I thought it would be helpful if I posted the Scottish polls on here as they come through, for reference
This one with thanks to James E......
James E said:
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 34% (-5)
SNP: 30% (+1)
CON: 13% (+1)
LDM: 8% (=)
RFM: 7% (+3)
GRN: 6% (-1)
Via
@yougov
, 3-7 Jun.
Changes w/ 13-17 May.
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Post by marginal on Jun 19, 2024 1:17:04 GMT
As promised I have started this thread so those interested can make their predictions for the outcome of the UK general election in Scottish seats Please just put your predictions here, and I will go first: SNP 27 Labour 22 Liberal Democrats 5 Conservatives 3 I think SNP will lose out in the urban areas to Labour. There are a lot of marginal seats and redrawn boundaries so hard to predict some seats. I'm hopeing to see David Mundell and Douglas Ross go down in flames, would like to see Douglas Alexander not get in, but he'll probably scrape through. I'm predicting the Conservatives to hold on to their Dumfries/ borders seats too, as like the Highlands and islands they tend to vote their own way If I guess now can I change my mind later?  Scotland-only polls are less regular than the GB-wide kind, and there's been a fair bit of inconsistency in the numbers for Labour and the SNP, so I might wait until the 3rd of July before getting it wrong. |
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 20, 2024 10:46:04 GMT
As promised I have started this thread so those interested can make their predictions for the outcome of the UK general election in Scottish seats Please just put your predictions here, and I will go first: SNP 27 Labour 22 Liberal Democrats 5 Conservatives 3 I think SNP will lose out in the urban areas to Labour. There are a lot of marginal seats and redrawn boundaries so hard to predict some seats. I'm hopeing to see David Mundell and Douglas Ross go down in flames, would like to see Douglas Alexander not get in, but he'll probably scrape through. I'm predicting the Conservatives to hold on to their Dumfries/ borders seats too, as like the Highlands and islands they tend to vote their own way If I guess now can I change my mind later? Scotland-only polls are less regular than the GB-wide kind, and there's been a fair bit of inconsistency in the numbers for Labour and the SNP, so I might wait until the 3rd of July before getting it wrong. Guess now, then guess again! The scottish results are perhaps the least predictable in this election I think. Its not easy to predict the blance between the desire to punish the SNP for its failures (the successes are less well remembered) against the the desire to punish the Tories for, well, everything, and the countering force of desire for independence |
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