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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 16, 2024 12:29:19 GMT
No - this MRP survey is gibberish re- Scotland. Implies SNP sweep Glasgow but lose Falkirk. They will do well to win 20 seats. Can I suggest that graham and bardin1 state publicly how many seats they expect the SNP to win and agree a bet with each other, the nearest to the actual result to win. I don't think that any of us really know how Scotland is going to turn out, unlike the UK as a whole. |
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 16, 2024 12:36:47 GMT
No - this MRP survey is gibberish re- Scotland. Implies SNP sweep Glasgow but lose Falkirk. They will do well to win 20 seats. Can I suggest that graham and bardin1 state publicly how many seats they expect the SNP to win and agree a bet with each other, the nearest to the actual result to win. I don't think that any of us really know how Scotland is going to turn out, unlike the UK as a whole. That's a good idea. I was thinking in any case it might be an idea to start a separate prediction thread for the scottish results, rather than bog down the discussion on the whole of the Uk thread. I'll give it some thought and make a post tonight or tomorrow |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 16, 2024 12:37:41 GMT
jib "The SNP are still on course for majority of MPs in Scotland. I failed to understand those who wrote off their chances, and their travails under Sturgeon and Yousaf look behind them now." Survation's MRP figures (SNP 37%, Lab 30%) are out of line with other polling in Scotland. Not one of the past 15 polls shows the SNP ahead and the overall average is for Labour to be 4 points in front. YouGov's cross breaks show Labour an average of around 6-7 points in front, too. It seems to me that where MRPs ask a 'constituency question', the SNP may be picking up some tactical support from the Scottish Greens, so perhaps this would explain some of the difference, but certainly not all of it. Or this may be a house effect of Survation's MRPs, as they have consistently shown higher SNP seats than others such as YouGov. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#ScotlandOf course it is possible that Survation's MRP is entirely correct, and most of the polls listed above are wildly wrong. But I think that the more likely scenario is that this one is generous to the SNP, and the reality is somewhere near to a tie. This makes a accurate prediction of seat totals in Scotland almost impossible. What’s the trend though? Who is improving, such that might pick up more marginals? |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 16, 2024 12:49:13 GMT
I'm sure this will trigger the usually suspect but it seems entirely plausible given that it's evident that the post office lied to everyone that this would include the then post office minister, after all they lied to his predecessors and successors.
"Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, has been asked how he can be trusted to do the right thing by whistleblowers when he was post office minister when concerns were already being raised in connection with the Horizon IT scandal.
He told the BBC:
I was listening, actually I was the first minister to meet Alan Bates (who led the campaign into the unjust targeting of post office operators) and I took his issues really seriously …
I put his concerns to the post office and I think I was probably the only minister who did that in that level of detail and I was lied to just like the subpostmasters were lied to, just like the judges and the courts were lied to and that is why the whistleblower is so important.
Davey, who was postal affairs minister between 2010 and 2012 when the software issues started coming to light, said he regretted not doing more to help victims who were wrongly accused of stealing but claimed that executives had blocked him from meeting campaigners."
I appreciate the usually suspect holds liberal democrats to standards not required by any other politicians and that for some reason they could see through lies that were directed at politicians of all parties for nearly two decades , but the industrial level of lying that's being exposed in the Horizon enquiry has largely placed the culpability where it belongs.
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Post by graham on Jun 16, 2024 13:01:56 GMT
I don't bet on politics but do not expect the SNP to win 20 seats this year.
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 16, 2024 13:55:16 GMT
I don't bet on politics but do not expect the SNP to win 20 seats this year. I expect them to win more (I don't bet either but happy to see who gets closer to the real figure) |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 16, 2024 14:03:02 GMT
No, its simpler than that. The voter ranks all candidates on the ballot paper (at least those they choose to vote for at all) in order of preference. At the count the candidate with the fewest first preferences (i.e. marked as "1") is eliminated and their second preferences redistributed until eventually you are reduced to the correct number of finally elected people. Parties cannot control how voters rank their offering and the favoured party HQ 'parachute' candidate may well end up eliminated by some popular local one that the party just allowed on as a makeweight. The only downside I can see is that there are going to be some very long ballot papers. That is actually only true for AV. For STV in a multiple-member constituency, before anyone is eliminated the surplus votes of those who are above quota are redistributed first. This is normally done by redistributing all their votes, but giving each a weight that corresponds to the surplus (it's much easier using a computer program for this). In practice, STV elections would be quite like London Mayor elections when the Supplementary Vote method was used and all the ballot papers were machine read. True but I was trying to keep it simple to explain how the choice between a party's candidates rests with the voters not the party machine (except by keeping them entirely off the ballot paper - and even then popular independents tend to do rather well under STV). |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 16, 2024 14:07:16 GMT
Can I suggest that graham and bardin1 state publicly how many seats they expect the SNP to win and agree a bet with each other, the nearest to the actual result to win. I don't think that any of us really know how Scotland is going to turn out, unlike the UK as a whole. That's a good idea. I was thinking in any case it might be an idea to start a separate prediction thread for the scottish results, rather than bog down the discussion on the whole of the Uk thread. I'll give it some thought and make a post tonight or tomorrow So you wish to declare independence!  |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 16, 2024 14:13:19 GMT
Campaign update: 140 leaflets delivered this morning, 105 this afternoon. 73 left to do, which I will save for tomorrow.
I'm knackered. A bath followed by curry and the footie awaits.
The official Labour campaign, including the PPC, are attending the Finchingfield Beer Festival today, which would probably have been a lot more fun. For those not in the know Finchingfield is a famously 'picture postcard pretty' north Essex village.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jun 16, 2024 14:13:23 GMT
They are really desperate. A desperate attempt to 'Corbynize' him. |
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 16, 2024 14:28:54 GMT
That's a good idea. I was thinking in any case it might be an idea to start a separate prediction thread for the scottish results, rather than bog down the discussion on the whole of the Uk thread. I'll give it some thought and make a post tonight or tomorrow So you wish to declare independence! I just knew someone would pick up on that! |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 16, 2024 14:29:05 GMT
Campaign update: 140 leaflets delivered this morning, 105 this afternoon. 73 left to do, which I will save for tomorrow. I'm knackered. A bath followed by curry and the footie awaits. well done PJ. What was the dodgy-to-decent letterbox ratio? |
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Post by mercian on Jun 16, 2024 14:39:20 GMT
Am in favour of PR, an obvious reason is that it allows people to vote for who they want, rather than as in some cases now voting against who they don't want It also gives a more representative Parliament Lastly and I think as importantly, it can hold smaller parties to account. Under our current system minority parties can make all sorts of promises in their manifesto, knowing they'll never need to worry about whether they are even possible in practice If they are part of a coalition the harsh realities of life will mean tough choices have to be made A bit like what happened to the LibDems in 2010 then? |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 16, 2024 14:43:42 GMT
Tributes have been shared in memory of Jo Cox, a Labour MP who was murdered eight years ago today.
In 2016, Thomas Mair, an extreme rightwing terrorist, was sentenced to prison for the rest of his life for the murder of Cox, the former Batley and Spen MP. He repeatedly shot and stabbed Cox in an attack during the EU referendum campaign.
Paying tribute on Sunday, the Labour party leader, Keir Starmer, said:
I will always carry Jo’s words with me as we campaign for change: “We are far more united and have far more in common than that which divides us.
The Jo Cox foundation said:
We also share Jo’s belief that, together, we can strengthen communities to become less lonely, better connected, and more united.
Dawn Butler, who was the Labour MP for Brent Central, and left the Commons on 30 May 2024, said:
Now more than ever we should remember Jo’s powerful message, that we have far more in common than that which divides us.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 16, 2024 14:47:26 GMT
More Labour garden signs out today, what they lack in quantity they make up for in size, these appear to be repurposed for sale boards, they're huge , I must admit I'm suffering from a bit of size envy.
You know what they say huge sign , big post.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 16, 2024 14:59:04 GMT
Campaign update: 140 leaflets delivered this morning, 105 this afternoon. 73 left to do, which I will save for tomorrow. I'm knackered. A bath followed by curry and the footie awaits. well done PJ. What was the dodgy-to-decent letterbox ratio? Better than yesterday but I did encounter one that had a spring hinged flap outside, another one inside (always a pain), bristles and was situated at ground level. I take it they don't get much mail. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2024 15:00:23 GMT
I don't bet on politics but do not expect the SNP to win 20 seats this year. Can you advise me on the best bet though Graham? (Don’t tell the others though.) |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 16, 2024 15:01:27 GMT
well done PJ. What was the dodgy-to-decent letterbox ratio? Better than yesterday but I did encounter one that had a spring hinged flap outside, another one inside (always a pain), bristles and was situated at ground level. I take it they don't get much mail. That could be a strategy to get them to improve the letterbox: to keep leafleting them? 📩 |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 16, 2024 15:02:39 GMT
"A rampaging group of English hooligans have attacked a bar where Serbia supporters were drinking before the Serbia v England game at Euro 2024.
Shortly after 3.30pm local time, tens of Serbs standing outside the Aleppo bar on Arminstraße in central Gelsenkirchen were targeted with projectiles.
According to eyewitnesses, “everything you can imagine” was thrown at the Serbia supporters by the English hooligans before the arrival of 200 German riot police."
Makes you proud to be English.
We quite frequently go to a small coastal town in Spain it's only around 5km from Benidorm, while we're happy to converse in English in this friendly little multinational town, with a large Norwegian population and the best cricket team in Alicante ,when visiting Benidorm, which I quite like in a Blackpool in the sun sort of way to be honest, we always speak in Spanish.
We've always found the response of both Spanish and British traders to be very positive to this, most British working residents speak better Spanish than we do they understand entirely why we do so.
While the Spanish traders normally assume we're Norwegian or French when we mention where we are staying , we don't normally bother to correct them on nationality.
Mind you we don't frequent the English/Scottish speciality pubs so no idea what the reaction of staff or punters there would be.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2024 15:06:03 GMT
I see English fans are doing the country proud by attacking Serbian fans who were drinking together innocently. Utterly fucking pathetic.
(I would become a Scotland supporter (given I was born there) if they didn’t have such an abject team.)
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2024 15:07:37 GMT
Ah…I see Steve has done his full newscast.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2024 15:09:38 GMT
LOL…..
“ UK Forecast
Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2019
Labour 41.6% (+9.5%) 464 - 496 +264 to +296
Conservatives 19.4% (-24.2%) 60 - 83 -311 to -288
Reform 16.1% (+14.1%) 1 - 15 +1 to +15
Liberal Democrats 10.6% (-1.0%) 44 - 51 +35 to +42
Green 6.2% (+3.5%) 0 - 1 -1 to nc
SNP 2.9% (-1.0%) 17 - 23 -31 to -25
Plaid Cymru 0.6% (+0.2%) 2 - 5 nc to +3
Speaker 1 nc
Northern Ireland 18 nc”
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Post by mercian on Jun 16, 2024 15:11:34 GMT
Latest from the Muslim vote site recommending candidates: Independent 24 Workers 14 Green 10 LibDem 6 No Party 2 Kubo 1 The site seems to be very volatile. There are now 33 seats with big Muslim population where there is no recommended candidate, and there is clearly no consensus nationwide. Notable that there are no Labour, though 31 of the 33 are Labour seats. I have no idea what Kubo is. Anyway, it will be interesting to see how much effect these recommendations have. Particularly in certain places such as Birmingham Ladywood. According to the site there is 43% Muslim population (49,000) and the Labour majority is 27,000. The recommended Independent candidate is the chap who recently got 70,000 votes in the recent mayoral election. I'd expect Labour to hold the seat but you never know. Did you see and read the latest voting intention poll conducted exclusively amongst the Muslim population in this country? Neilj shared it not long ago. I think I missed that one. There was one day when I had to skip a few pages of wisdom because of time pressures. I think I had something more important to do that day like watching ants or whatever. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 16, 2024 15:13:52 GMT
Can I say, having just skimmed through this entire thread ( admittedly only possible because it runs to a mere two and a half pages thus far!) that apart from my post gratuitously defaming Laura Kuennsberg again, that it is a brilliant and uplifting read. UKPR on top form. Informed and enlightening comments about elections and opinion polls. It's what we do. Or should. Possibly because all the vitriol is still going strong on the old thread! |
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Post by mercian on Jun 16, 2024 15:15:50 GMT
Did you see and read the latest voting intention poll conducted exclusively amongst the Muslim population in this country? Neilj shared it not long ago. The survey by Savanta for the website Hyphen found 63% of the 1,083 Muslim voters surveyed would back Labour if the election were tomorrow. Only 12% would back the Conservatives, 12% the Lib Dems, 7% the Greens and 5% other candidates. Thanks for reposting. It looks like it the threatened Muslim revolt might be a damp squib after all. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 16, 2024 15:19:14 GMT
Britain Elect modelling update - looks pretty good to me x.com/BritainElects/status/1802305636635419004MODEL UPDATE | How would the UK vote if the election was held today? LAB: 441 MPs (+241) CON: 96 (-276) LDEM: 66 (+58) SNP: 22 (-26) PC: 3 (+1) REF: 2 (+2) GRN: 1 (-) via Britain Predicts, 16 Jun |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 16, 2024 15:19:29 GMT
I see English fans are doing the country proud by attacking Serbian fans who were drinking together innocently. Utterly fucking pathetic. (I would become a Scotland supporter (given I was born there) if they didn’t have such an abject team.) That is clearly impossible. I was told off by crossbat11 in no uncertain terms for my snobbery at suggesting that drunk football fans ever cause any trouble. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 16, 2024 15:25:35 GMT
Though speaking more broadly about pollsters, politics is a bit of an advert for their real business which is market research, and so any hyper-specific election predicting AI would be useless for that and largely a waste of money! Thanks for the explanation. I have a programming background myself and dabbled in a bit of amateur specific AI many years ago. I seem to remember trying to improve weather forecasting but it was only a bit of a side project when I got bored at work and never amounted to much. Good point about why pollsters wouldn't develop one. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2024 15:30:06 GMT
Britain Elect modelling update - looks pretty good to me x.com/BritainElects/status/1802305636635419004MODEL UPDATE | How would the UK vote if the election was held today? LAB: 441 MPs (+241) CON: 96 (-276) LDEM: 66 (+58) SNP: 22 (-26) PC: 3 (+1) REF: 2 (+2) GRN: 1 (-) via Britain Predicts, 16 Jun Tory buggers worryingly close to a hundred.  |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2024 15:31:35 GMT
I see English fans are doing the country proud by attacking Serbian fans who were drinking together innocently. Utterly fucking pathetic. (I would become a Scotland supporter (given I was born there) if they didn’t have such an abject team.) That is clearly impossible. I was told off by crossbat11 in no uncertain terms for my snobbery at suggesting that drunk football fans ever cause any trouble. Ignore Batty. He’s a known troublemaker. Quite violent too. |
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