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Post by mandolinist on Jul 1, 2024 19:25:10 GMT
Hi all, back again with a poster watch this time from Bathh. Before I report the result I have to acknowledge that I spent very little time in residential areas, being mostly in the Abbey and train station. steve, I am sorry, not one Lib Dem poster, in fact the only poster was for the Monster raving loony party. I hope Wera Hobhouse is safe. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 1, 2024 19:25:47 GMT
oh. Just when I had found a purpose in life. Anyway, to block someone, click on their username, which takes you to the profile page. In the top right hand corner is a menu button with a cog on it. Click on that, and the menu drops down with a “block member” option. in the attached graphic below, you can see the menu that I have dropped down to show it. As you can see, you can also send steve a gift should you be so willing. [br I did block & once started I got carried away and blocked 12 people. The pages are now dizzying blank space which I didn't expect at all, like uncarved tombstones Unfortunately you can't block yourself buy you can send yourself a gift! I chose wisely. Maybe they need an option where everyone is blocked for you by default and you can pick the few you’d like to read. (A bit like how you choose who to follow on Twitter) |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 1, 2024 19:28:10 GMT
The question of the referendum on Scottish independence never arose and is irrelevant. Knew you’d get there in the end I have no details , but apparently there is a poll showing IDS holding Chingford & Woodford Green. “Holding” in what way though? Holding back? Holding hostage? Holding to ransom? Holding in contempt? |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 1, 2024 19:30:42 GMT
So far we have had 3 polls tonight coming up with - Lab 39% Con 24% Ref 13% - 16% LD 10% - 12% Grn 4% - 5% Using the mean average for those parties with a range, that gives in EC: Lab 445, Con 92, LD 67, Reform 5, Green 2, SNP 16, PC 3, Other 2 The tactical voting as suggested by the polling today makes remarkably little difference, costing the Conservatives only another 5 seats (2 to Labour, 1 to LD, 1 to Green and - I'm not sure how - 1 to SNP.). Two of the Reform seats are very silly. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 1, 2024 19:32:38 GMT
I delivered more targeted leaflets this evening and decided to add up the total so far - 1,082. I have another 103 to deliver tomorrow. When you say targeted, are the leaflets different to what they got before? Yes - they are 'reminder to vote' cards and only delivered to those who have indicated they will or are likely to vote Labour. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 1, 2024 19:35:59 GMT
When you say targeted, are the leaflets different to what they got before? Yes - they are 'reminder to vote' cards and only delivered to those who have indicated they will or are likely to vote Labour. Ah I see, it’s for gotv rather than for persuading floaters, fair enough… |
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Post by shevii on Jul 1, 2024 19:37:48 GMT
So far we have had 3 polls tonight coming up with - Lab 39% Con 24% Ref 13% - 16% LD 10% - 12% Grn 4% - 5% These are three of the less reliable pollster in my opinion so hard to read too much into them. Of course I could be wrong and these are the ones who are going to be spot on but still take more notice of Yougov, Opinium and Survation. |
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Post by ping on Jul 1, 2024 19:41:30 GMT
Improvement? How? Based on over performance in state examinations, privately educated kids get a better education. You are arguing its a bad thing those governing us got a better than average education? You miss the point. To those on the left it doesn't matter what works best. It's only ideological purity that's important. I don't think I missed the point. Danny was arguing that privately educated kids perform better in state examinations and that it is therefore not undesirable that there are a disproportionate number of privately educated kids in the cabinet. I just don't agree, on the basis that representation is important in politics and because performance at graduate and post-graduate level is a better indicator than GCSEs/A-levels. But most importantly, good at exams doesn't equal good at running the country. As I posted before: "For example, I was very good at exams (good short term memory etc.) but I don't feel this prepared me well for the world of work. I work in science, an area where you would assume academic achievement and exam performance would be particularly important, but actually a lot of the best scientists are not people who aced their exams; they are people who can think creatively, can manage projects and teams well, and who are intensely passionate about what they do. Once you are applying for post-doctoral positions, you don't even mention GCSE and A level results. You might put your undergraduate degree on your CV but actually things like your PhD and publication record are far more important. I'm sure there are lots of qualifications that make someone a good person to run the country but I'd argue that good school exam results are not amongst them. A certain level of technical nous is probably desirable - being reasonably numerate and understanding how the economy works and so on. But more important are a passion to serve the public, compassion and empathy, humility and integrity." |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jul 1, 2024 19:48:03 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 1, 2024 19:53:00 GMT
There hasn’t been much interest in the French exit polls...😕 To be honest my interest is more in what happens next and how that affects the result in (two?) weeks time. Too early to say. The results appear to be in line with polling and we knew Macron's party was going to get hammered but what's not too clear to me is what happens once third placed candidates withdraw (and if they get 12.5% or more then it's their choice). I've seen quotes from both the left and centrists that they are expecting whoever is 3rd out of those two to sit it out and withdraw. If so it's a case, rather like with Macron's election, how many people switch to stop Le Pen's party getting in and for once, based on these exit polls, it seems likely that the main beneficiary should be the left but may not work out that way (Johnson v Corbyn anyone?). In general terms, the Far Right threat in Europe and the UK doesn't seem to be going anywhere and always seems to tick up a notch, with some ups and downs along the way, but never yet making a breakthrough. Whether we are in or out of the EU probably makes little difference to us overall. I've long since felt comparisons between EU countries and the UK have been overblown and we are more or less all in the same boat as we have similar types of economic systems and standards of living. Some do better either by natural resources, long term investment or better than average governments but with globalisation I think the poor are suffering pretty much everywhere. So the Far Right are probably going to carry on inching forward everywhere in Europe & UK unless anything changes or they see a taste of power and then get rejected as is happening with the Tories now who border the Far Right in many aspects if not to the same degree as Farage or Le Pen would. If Le Pen does make it to a majority or a most seats (as people seem to think is likely) then she either uses that to gain a deeper foothold or she messes it up like Truss did. Thanks Shev., yes, I suppose that if the results went as expected, and the main issue is what happens in the next round, that might subdue the interest a bit, although one might have thought there might be more concern at the rise of the right abroad. People argue elsewhere, that the reason the right don’t get beyond a certain point in various countries of the EU, is that if they are tied to the euro, then leaving the EU is more of a wrench than it was for us. The right have seemingly ditched pushing leavimg the EU as a result, however people may still assume that it’s their longer-term agenda? Regarding how much difference it may or may not make to be in or out of the EU for us, the thing is that even when we leave, we are still tied to a lot of the EU mechanisms in order to get the deal that we get, so yes, the difference isn’t as big as one might think. (There is a bit of potential to steal a march in terms of regulation (like we did with banking) in some areas that could be quite big - e.g. AI, and fusion - but whether we actually manage to do that is something else). Agree regarding similar economic systems, systems that have been “intensely relaxed” about economic inequality, but as this inequality spreads further into the middle class, there will be an increasing reaction along the lines we are already seeing: that pull leftwards. (This is happening, not just because of the inequality, but also because of the pressing need to deal with things like pandemics and climate change and AI and more, which the supranational organisations are not suitably oriented towards or equipped to deal with on their own without more state action alongside). Re: future prospects of the right - one of the things that tends to hold the right back, is that alongside their issues with immigration, they also tend to be quite right-wing economically, which limits their appeal. Because they can split votes though, they can still have quite a big impact on ruling parties in terms of policy. |
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Post by ping on Jul 1, 2024 19:54:03 GMT
You miss the point. To those on the left it doesn't matter what works best. It's only ideological purity that's important. It isn't about ideological purity, it's about fairness and empathy. Private provision of vital services creates a multi-tier system and detaches those in power from the consequences of their actions. Besides, how can anyone seriously look at the shambles we've suffered under successive private school educated leaders and believe this is as good as it gets. Those on the right only really like competition when the odds are stacked in their favour. Exactly, and the flip side of the coin is that we're under-using the talents of individuals from state school backgrounds. I wonder how many excellent prime ministers we never had. |
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Post by hireton on Jul 1, 2024 19:55:33 GMT
alec"My mind is drawn to the sage warnings several of us posted on here about how the Conservative attempts to pack quangos with placemen and women, degrade the courts powers to curb government abuse of power, and various measures to tilt the voting system in their favour were colossal strategic errors that would one day come back to haunt them...........They have gifted Labour license to do these things, even if they weren't good things to do, and in keeping with the general dimness of the Conservative approach to government these last 14 years, they failed to game through what this would mean." Labour may have learnt the lessons well: www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jul/01/labour-plan-replace-nhs-england-chair-richard-meddings-general-electionNot sure retreads from a decade or more ago chime with Labour's "Change" mantra.
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Post by hireton on Jul 1, 2024 19:59:44 GMT
"NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @telegraph
📈Highest Conservative vote share and lowest Labour lead in a month
🌹Lab 39 (+1)
🌳Con 24 (+3)
➡️Reform 13 (-1)
🔶LD 10 (-1)
🌍Green 4 (-2)
🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
⬜️Other 7 (=)
2,287 UK adults
28-30 June (chg from 26-28 June)"
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Post by RAF on Jul 1, 2024 20:04:53 GMT
So far we have had 3 polls tonight coming up with - Lab 39% Con 24% Ref 13% - 16% LD 10% - 12% Grn 4% - 5% Thes are three of the less reliable pollster in my opinion so hard to read too much into them. Of course I could be wrong and these are the ones who are going to be spot on but still take more notice of Yougov, Opinium and Survation. This looks like the likely final result - more of less: Labour around 40% Con around 25% Reform somewhere in the mid teens (as with most of Farage's vehicles) LD between 10 and 15 Greens around 5. We may start to see some inadvertent herding as all polling methods ultimately lead to Rome. |
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Post by ping on Jul 1, 2024 20:07:59 GMT
I think the point steve was making is that there is value in our government being representative of the people they are governing. For example, they may be able to appreciate and empathise better with the issues faced by the general public. I doubt sending them to state schools will change this. Firstly, they would still go to the best state schools, because even there buying power allows you to choose which school you house is in the catchment area for. Money buys a betetr education even in the state system. But secondly, if you look through the ancestry of MPs, you find its often a family business. Being an MP is still significantly a hereditary title. We do not have a system which in any way shape or form seeks to be representative of all types of people in the UK or to allow power into the hands of anyone not acceptable to the elite already holding that power. That being so, better they were well educated than badly. I agree with you up to a point. Not all state schools are equal and you can buy a better catchment area for your children. However, it does seem a bit bizarre to argue that because the state school system is not perfectly egalitarian, we must be perfectly sanguine about private schools. There are degrees of privilege. Also, I repeat: slightly better than average GCSE and A level results do not make someone better at running the country. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jul 1, 2024 20:08:56 GMT
Just came off the Gourock to Dunnon ferry. Saw half a dozen LD posters on the road out of Dunnon and two SNP placards on a bridge.
Otherwise nothing.
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Post by graham on Jul 1, 2024 20:16:15 GMT
So far we have had 3 polls tonight coming up with - Lab 39% Con 24% Ref 13% - 16% LD 10% - 12% Grn 4% - 5% Using the mean average for those parties with a range, that gives in EC: Lab 445, Con 92, LD 67, Reform 5, Green 2, SNP 16, PC 3, Other 2 The tactical voting as suggested by the polling today makes remarkably little difference, costing the Conservatives only another 5 seats (2 to Labour, 1 to LD, 1 to Green and - I'm not sure how - 1 to SNP.). Two of the Reform seats are very silly. I have never been a fan of EC which has often come up with unlikely results. My natural conservatism leads me to place my trust in UNS which on these figures could still see the Tories above 200 seats - though I will be happy to be wrong about that. Both Labour and the LDs would be significantly lower. I do not expect Reform to win more than two seats - perhaps only Clacton. I shall be voting Green but will not be surprised if the party fails to win a seat this time. |
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Post by ping on Jul 1, 2024 20:26:07 GMT
None of this seems to be disputing my point, that kids at private schools do better in learning stuff and passing exams than kids attending state schools. Private schools are just better at getting the kids to learn. But frankly this isnt just about boosting their grades, its also about learning to learn. With my University lecturer hat on, I would like to dispute the idea that exam performance and learning (or even learning to learn) equate to the same thing. It is hard to design assessments that really capture someone's understanding and aren't gameable, at least to some extent. Also, your original point was that this exam performance (and learning) makes them better qualified for government and I have explained why I think that is not the case. Well, that's a whole other debate. I believe that every child should have an excellent education irrespective of their parent's ability to pay. Furthermore, if there are substantial inequalities in education, we miss out on the talents of those who were given less opportunity than others to thrive. Sorry, you've inadvertently stumbled upon the one hill that I am prepared to die on  |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 1, 2024 20:34:34 GMT
So far we have had 3 polls tonight coming up with - Lab 39% Con 24% Ref 13% - 16% LD 10% - 12% Grn 4% - 5% Figures before they adjust for don't knows etc JLP: Lab 42% / Con 22% MiC: Lab 41% / Con 22% Which is similar to the average of other polls who don't adjust in the same way, but I would of thought by now we would have had convergence. The election will hopefully tell us which methodologies were more accurate |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jul 1, 2024 21:00:59 GMT
ping
"I believe that every child should have an excellent education irrespective of their parent's ability to pay."
Absolutely - but unless we improve the lives of children in the other aspects of life, then many won't be able to take full advantage of it.
Those who have experienced the traumas in early life, that poverty creates, will have suffered brain damage before they even get into the education system. As with health, creating a more equitable society will improve things for everyone - though the already advantaged may find that their margin of advantage reduces - tough!
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Post by alec on Jul 1, 2024 21:13:59 GMT
Danny - "But frankly this isnt just about boosting their grades, its also about learning to learn." That's an extremely dubious claim. If I get the time, I'll try to hunt down the data from a couple of studies I saw a few years ago that showed private schools were rather bad at developing pupils compared to state schools. The advantages mainly came from higher skills at entrance, and the educational gains were better in the comprehensives. From memory, a selection of London comprehensives came out particularly well. And that was before making any allowances for the available budgets, class sizes, etc. I personally think private schools are very inefficient in terms of returns for the investment.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jul 1, 2024 21:19:53 GMT
The "wisdom of crowds" doesn't seem to extend to wisdom about Scotland!
5% of the GB vote for the SNP would be a return to 2015 - nae chance.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 1, 2024 21:20:25 GMT
So far we have had 3 polls tonight coming up with - Lab 39% Con 24% Ref 13% - 16% LD 10% - 12% Grn 4% - 5% Figures before they adjust for don't knows etc JLP: Lab 42% / Con 22% MiC: Lab 41% / Con 22% Which is similar to the average of other polls who don't adjust in the same way, but I would of thought by now we would have had convergence. The election will hopefully tell us which methodologies were more accurate We've become inured over the last few weeks to almost ridiculously low Tory VI ratings in many of the polls; levels of support I never thought to be realistic come polling day. Some of you may recall that I was one of the few posters predicting that they would float back to somewhere near their historical floor of 30%, albeit that may well be on the optimistic side now. This latest clutch of polls showing them somewhere near the mid 20s could be something like what they actually poll on Thursday rather than the sub 20s. What is worth saying though, and something that might be getting lost here, is that if they do poll about 26% then that is an historical low for them and almost unbelievable for the Conservative Party. A disaster that might be disguised by it being a recovery from unrealistic polling depths. I never thought I'd see these figures for them as long as I lived. Almost unbelievable. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 1, 2024 21:22:42 GMT
Just watched Tim Harford on CH4 with a program called 'skint'. Basically about what is wrong with the UK economy, mentioned investment has nosedived since Brexit, but also that we have been investing far too little for far too long in infrastructure, dating back to Thatcher and beyond.
In particular Thatcher's changes which halted government housebuilding ever since, but rather than the private sector picking up the demand and building more as government claimed, it too reduced its building rate and prices have soared. He suggested building 650,000 homes a year for ten years to catch up. That much of this could take place on notional greenbelt land around cities, though still only needing 2% of the land so defined...which typically isnt very green anyway. That this 'greenbelt' is a shibboleth which made sense when first defined accompanied by the idea cities would never in future grow, but makes no sense now. How our cities are all less productive than comparable ones in France.
Used an example of Cambridge, which wants to build thousands of homes...but cannot because the water infrastructure is inadequate. Which of course means building that.... by those privatised water companies which arent interested. Didnt go on about it, but similarly we arent building new electricity infrastructure either. Filmed quite a bit in Hastings, with the highest number of homeless in the country and nowhere for the council to put them. Mentioned that even our existing homes are smaller, more run down and less energy efficient than typical homes in europe. So it isnt just quantity, its quality.
Mentioned inadequate public transport in the UK. The toughest and most unpredictable planning rules in Europe, making any decision slow, refusals likely and outcomes very uncertain. Build a factory in Britain? Way too difficult.
Our investment in this sort of public infrastructure has been way down compared to europe for decades, and now its holding back growth in the UK. The solution obviously is to catch all that up.
Of course, neither main political party wants to talk about any of this. But they are talking about how growth will solve their cash shortages. Only no infrastrucutre, no growth. Growth in the UK since brexit has been half that in the EU. Which has been half that in the USA.
So which party will reverse brexit, and reverse Thatcher?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2024 21:26:10 GMT
pjw1961 “ The tactical voting as suggested by the polling today makes remarkably little difference, costing the Conservatives only another 5 seats (2 to Labour, 1 to LD, 1 to Green ……. ……………and - I'm not sure how - 1 to SNP.) Yes, seems high to me as well PJ. 
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Post by Rafwan on Jul 1, 2024 21:32:53 GMT
I have no details , but apparently there is a poll showing IDS holding Chingford & Woodford Green. Could be handy, actually. He could be the new leader of the Tory party. Went so well last time, after all. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 1, 2024 21:35:14 GMT
Ron Aldo misses penalty in extra time. The game has now gone to a penalty shoot out.
Will Ronnie step up to take one?
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 1, 2024 21:37:02 GMT
I hear he is saving going over Niagara Falls in a barrel for the eve of poll. Well in the meantime, the latest on Daveywatch: Zumba Attachments:
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 1, 2024 21:40:31 GMT
Ronnie dun the biz.
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Post by alec on Jul 1, 2024 21:48:14 GMT
"Filmed quite a bit in Hastings, with the highest number of homeless in the country and nowhere for the council to put them."
I'm very surprised they noticed them.
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