15 Jun 2024 : LAB: 43% / CON: 19% / REF: 16% / LDEM: 11%

[pjw1961]

Jun 28, 2024 23:25:54 GMT graham said:

Jun 28, 2024 22:07:34 GMT pjw1961 said:

Kinnock is correct to say that 'Farage plants and harvests lies ' , but alas he is not alone! I would direct him to what Starmer promised during the Leadership campaign in early 2020. 'Once a liar - always a liar.'

If you can't see the difference between Farage spreading his poisonous racism and xenophobia and Starmer's mild centrism which you don't like much, then I feel truly sorry for how warped your perspective has become. 

[pjw1961]

Jun 28, 2024 23:11:48 GMT eor said:

In terms of what happens now... I suspect relatively little impact. Biden is clearly digging in, so everyone will wait for the next round of polls, and I suspect they'll show not much movement. All last night will have done is entrenched what everyone already thought anyway. There might be some shift amongst Independents (as there was after Trump's convictions) but I doubt it'll be enough to move the needle on VI.

Put another way, Trump changed no minds last night, he just stood up and talked his usual schtick. And whilst last night was extremely uncomfortable viewing, if the choice in November is still going to be Biden v Trump then I expect almost everyone who said they were backing Biden prior to last night to still be backing him now because he's still not Trump. Maybe a bit of bleeding to DK/WNV or to the third-party guys, but if there is than that will probably come back.

The trouble is that if things just continue as they are we get Trump anyway - he is ahead in every swing state. We need movement toward Biden to get a different result and that seems highly improbable.  

[pjw1961]

Jun 28, 2024 23:44:12 GMT oldnat said:

Is there actual research evidence (eg Election studies) that Kinnock's triumphalism at the Sheffield rally, changed sufficient votes to cost Labour at that election - or is it just one of those myths that gains ground through regular repetition?

It is highly unlikely Sheffield made much difference. The polls over the prior 2 years already forecast a narrow Conservative victory if you read them right. Labour in fact over-performed in seats somewhat given the size of the eventual Tory lead. It was more the case that the media had fixed a narrative (hung parliament) in its collective head and so was surprised by the outcome. A similar thing happened in 2015. Kinnock has said that the campaign team were already aware they were likely to lose before Sheffield, but obviously you can't say it publicly. 

[steve]

pjw1961

I seem to recall as an offering to the left John Smith announcing in the shadow budget that an incoming Labour government would uncap national insurance shortly before the election, I might be wrong on this, it was a long time ago, but I do recall that for both Faith and I , she was a senior night sister at the time, this would have entailed a marginal tax increase of around 10% or whatever the nic rate was then.
While we still voted Labour it certainly was an issue of concern as it was quite widely perceived as unfair that working people were being lumped in as the undeserving rich just because they'd got a promotion.


I don't recall any big fuss about the rally at the time

[steve]

Has anyone actually seen a Tory garden poster any where?

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 29, 2024 5:26:44 GMT steve said:

Has anyone actually seen a Tory garden poster any where?

How about this? 

Attachments:

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Oh you meant Tory Garden poster, not Story Garden! I don’t think those exist anymore, do they?

[neilj]

With 5 days to go Sky news poll tracker has
Labour on a 20.5% lead

Labour: 40.5%
CON: 20%
REF: 16.4%
LDEM: 11.3%
GRN: 6.2%
SNP: 2.9%

I still think Reform is too high and come the day it will be below 13%

[steve]

"Top scientists turning down UK jobs over ‘tax on talent’, says Wellcome boss
Next government urged to lower upfront visa costs that are 17 times higher than international average"

But this is brexitania, we don't need talent!
A local village country for local village idiots.

[steve]

neilj
The lib dems are very much on track to equal or exceed their 2019 vote share.
With the collapse of the Tory vote share if lib dem votes remained the same in the constituencies where they came second to the tories, that puts all 75 where the Liberal democrats were second with more than 20% of the vote into contention.
Nearly all are Tory held, there's just one Sheffield Hallam, which the lib dems could conceivably take from Labour.

80+ seats is at the top end of expectations but it's now plausible.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 29, 2024 6:12:01 GMT steve said:

neilj
The lib dems are very much on track to equal or exceed their 2019 vote share.
With the collapse of the Tory vote share if lib dem votes remained the same in the constituencies where they came second to the tories, that puts all 75 where the Liberal democrats were second with more than 20% of the vote into contention.
Nearly all are Tory held, there's just one Sheffield Hallam, which the lib dems could conceivably take from Labour.

80+ seats is at the top end of expectations but it's now plausible.

If Tories keep imploding, how many One Nation Tories might be coming the Lib Dem way longer term? (MPs or voters). Which might help cement LDs as an opposition?  

[alec]

Shift in the weather forecast; up here, Thursday is now forecast to be a cool summers day, with a brisk westerly, but plenty of sunshine and no rain. A good voting forecast.

[neilj]

Lots of talk about people not getting their postal vote in time before they go on holiday, especially in Scotland
The problem seems to be with people who applied for postal votes when the election was called (those already registered seem to be okay)
I can understand why people only applied when the election was called, upto then it was a reasonable assumption the election would be in the Autumn and they could vote in person
Having had this very experience a few years ago, I was already registered for a postal vote, so I am not disenfranchised again
Postal votes are likely to be a record high this year and after people's experiences that figure will only rise
I advised everyone I know to get a postal vote, if you are present on election day and want to, you can still go to the polling station and deliver it there
This election will hopefully kill dead suggestions to limit who can get a postal vote

[Danny]

Jun 28, 2024 19:33:25 GMT mark61 said:

The Prime Minister of the Uk calls out the disgusting slur from the RefUk activist, a phrase regrettably I heard too many times growing up in the West Midlands in the 60's and 70's and he is right to call it out, these Knuckle draggers should be shamed,  but it is these sort of voters the Tories have been chasing with their anti-migrant rhetoric from Braverman and Anderson, and Jenrick who ordered the painting over of Child friendly Murals at a detention centre that may have given some small comfort to traumatised children.

I am sorry that the PM's children may have heard their Father referred to in that way, but it's difficult for Dad to take the moral high ground when he has taken £15 million from Frank Hester.

Sunak is in a particularly difficult position because he himself ethnically might be a turnoff to some who would have voted con. There will be voters who have already abandoned the conservative party because of its ethnically diverse leadership. This is something the MPS and members must have thought about when they chose these people as leaders and indeed candidates, when they hoped to benefit from this diversity. But it has its down side, and that might be particuarly the case when the party has burnt its bridges with the centre anyway.

[Danny]

Jun 28, 2024 19:57:11 GMT robbiealive said:

I don't really get Reform voters. UKIP got 13% in 2015: its supporters wanted Brexit, which they got. Major victory.

The protean Farage is now offering what: zero migration. But everyone knows that cant happen. You cant create it by Act of Parliament.

You very much can! I dont understand why you think otherwise? (especially when there are half a million a year leaving as is the case)

[hireton]

One historian's perspective on Starmer's Labour Party:

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/28/keir-starmer-labour-britain-conservative-party?CMP=share_btn_url

[Danny]

Jun 28, 2024 20:04:59 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jun 28, 2024 19:59:07 GMT @sotonsaint said:

Farage has also just said he hopes to 'lift poor people out of society' (he meant poverty), so perhaps he doesn't know what he's talking about tonight.

Farage is the biggest liar in UK politics (and given Boris Johnson, that's saying something). Everything he says is a lie. 

You must know that is not true. You must also know that as someone who is not going to have any formal power at all after the election, no one thinks he could at best get more than half a dozen MPs, voters will be aware voting for him will not deliver reform as government with an (I agree) contradictory and as it stands undeliverable manifesto. That doesnt matter, because SOME of what he says is true and very important to voters. Brexit was a single issue, in or out. Immigration is a single issue, allow it or not. Farge says not, lab and con say allow.

Lab and con decided the best way to prevent UKIP becoming a government was to allow brexit. Be ambiguous about immigration despite it being a core reason given for having Brexit. But now they both see immigration as the solution to low growth. To agree to end immigration is to tear up their core stategies and they arent willing to do that yet.

[Danny]

Jun 28, 2024 20:42:55 GMT graham said:

I am not now expecting Labour to manage 40% next week - probably more in the 36% - 39% polled at both 1974 elections and again in 1979.At the same time the scope for any swingback has significantly narrowed with circa 20% of likely voters having already returned postal votes.

Not sure. Those already voted will be disproportionately con core vote, whatever is left of it. The floating and possibly persuadable voters might be the last to vote.

[crossbat11]

Reading through the last couple of pages of this thread, I thought eor, as he often does, provided some very insightful and thought provoking comments on both the Trump v Biden race and the support for Reform in the current UK election.

I tend to share his views on both. On the US presidential race, as much as I want to see Trump lose, and am sorely tempted by various desperate measures after Biden's calamitous appearance in yesterday's televised debate, the Democrats have probably got no realistic choice left but to stick with Biden now, assuming Biden wants to continue. Which it appears he does. We can but hope that two things happen, albeit their chances of doing so are receding fast. Firstly that Biden finds a spark and the debate performance fast fades into distant memory as a bad day at the office, and secondly some disaster befalls Trump that finally brings the US electorate to their senses. Both long shots now, but we can but hope and pray.

On Reform, I still think, and fret too, that competing with each other in the virtue stakes with "I hate Farage more than you-hoo" personal denunciations, assorted loathings and abusive name calling, is silly and counter productive.

It misses the point and is a politically inept response too. Farage, self avowedly, is leading a revolt against our political system. He's not really offering a policy prospectus at all beyond vaguely dog-whistling to the prejudice and bigotry widely prevalent in our society.

Speak to most committed and would-be Reform voters and you don't get endorsement of policy or even specific grievances that they think Reform will address. You get something much vaguer but, in it's own way, much more pernicious too.

A deep disenchantment with, and alienation from, our political system. A feeling that Farage is a wrecking ball on their behalf. Johnson had this rather more mainstream appeal too. I suspect a lot of Farage's new support is coming from former Johnson inspired Tory voters.

The answer to it isn't the personal demonisation of Farage, it is the realisation that a lot of our politics and democracy is broken and doesn't work. To accept that, in part, Farage is right. From the voting system to local government, from press ownership to the House of Lords, from party funding to political party democracy, from the way political patronage works to the way our law making in Parliament operates. The whole bloody shebang really.

Start fixing that and escape from our malfunctioning sub democracy to a proper one that exists in more than name only, and Farage and Reform become fringe circus shows where they belong, not a political entity attracting millions of votes.

Oh, and a government that starts addressing inequality and fixing a broken public realm might help too. We've had one doing exactly the opposite for 14 years. Hopefully we're about to rid ourselves of it in a few days time.

[steve]

I know there are posters here who just love to pick up on grammatical errors and punctuation.

This one's just for you.

[Danny]

Jun 28, 2024 21:34:58 GMT steve said:

Charles Windsor deploys the holy hand grenade of Antioch.

Nobody expected that!
View Attachment

He certainly handed one to Sunak at the D day commemoration.

[Danny]

Jun 28, 2024 21:42:50 GMT mercian said:

Well off the top of my head he recently reminded us that he had made a speech warning about potential war in Ukraine 10 years ago, which he did, so it wasn't a lie.

There WAS a war in Ukraine ten years ago when Russia invaded Crimea. Exact timing seems important.

[steve]

hireton

I fear that if Labour does in office what it's promised in opposition, i.e. Not a lot, No fundamental improvement in our relationship with Europe and no restoration of tax allowances , no meaningful change in the electoral system etc ,then there are going to be a lot of disillusioned labourites who thought this cobblers was just for election purposes.

[Lakeland Lass]

Jun 28, 2024 22:24:53 GMT robbiealive said:

Jun 28, 2024 22:12:21 GMT mercian said:

robbiealive
The example took about two seconds to find. I didn't bother looking for any more. Of course there are other reasons for delays, but why deliberately add to them? Surely the protestors could just open their ranks to let an ambulance through?

I have seen a few videos of frustrated drivers with jobs to go to manhandling protestors. These people may well have to have jobs where they will be docked pay for arriving late, or possibly be sacked. It was a lot harder to find a video of JSO people being manhandled than it was to find them blocking an ambulance, but here's one.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=81UjzkzHbw0

I found three example in 3 seconds! See my post. Thanks for the fourth.
Oh & by the way JSO generally do everything they can to let emergency vehickes thru.

My mother had an absolute set of values. It was always wrong for men to attack women. You are much more "Men should not attack women unless they get in the way, forget to buy beer, etc".
So 5-minute delay & they are getting sacked. As I hv said critics of JSO have no sense of proportion. You always quote the most extreme possibility. 

The other day I needed air for tires. Woman in front had no idea how to top air in her bf's car. I pumped up a v low tire & all was well. According to yr code I should hv kicked her to the ground/ 

People get held up all the time for all sorts of reasons such as road works, adverse weather or just high traffic volumes and people generally sit quietly in their cars waiting to carry on with their journeys.

However when it's a JSO protest then by some strange quirk of fate every one in the queue turns out to be urgently trying to get their Granny to hospital , desperatly late for picking up children from school, or about to lose their job for arriving late.

What are the odds on that !

[Danny]

Jun 28, 2024 22:10:26 GMT @isa said:

"Your 8 page tactical voting guide to avoid a Starmer super-majority".

Its very interesting how this complete nonsense about any concept of a super majority in the Uk parliament is being spread by conservatives. You could argue its the biggest lie of this election.

Its also interesting that if we got maybe 50 libs and 25 SNP plus some sundry others, these are being completely ignored as an opposition. The propaganda seems to be about holding together specifically conservatives as the second largest party.

[Danny]

Jun 28, 2024 22:23:01 GMT mercian said:

pjw1961
Well neither of us knows exactly how Putin's mind works, so to say that one guess at how his mind works is true and another a lie is at best a wild exaggeration. Every opinion different to your own is not automatically a lie. Or perhaps, like Messrs Farage and Kinnock you are a narcissist and just believe that you are always right?

I think the ukraine invasion is pretty straightforward in motivation. Classic, voters love a national victory in war. Even if they are more surfs than voters, they still like their country winning. The first annexation of crimea went well, he planned to do it again, but this time Ukraine had significantly improved its defences and stopped him. Then he was stuck. But throughout including before Putin's second invasion (or indeed before he took crimea), the west's failure to fully assist Ukrainian military created the opportunity for Putin.

[Danny]

Jun 28, 2024 22:35:37 GMT norbold said:

Jun 28, 2024 19:43:34 GMT @sotonsaint said:

Farage just said on Question Time that the Labour candidate in Clacton made some 'deeply offensive racist remarks', which is why he was pulled from the constituency. norbold

Absolutely completely untrue. 

As I think I said earlier, he was told right from the beginning that he was to support the campaign in Colchester and not spend much time in Clacton. He didn't do that, instead concentrating on Clacton. As an employee of the Labour Party he was then ordered to leave Clacton and return to his home in the Midlands to campaign there under pain of - well, we're not sure exactly under pain of what. Maybe his employment, maybe that he would never be allowed to stand for parliament again. But it was something like that. It had absolutely nothing to do with his supposed racist remarks.

Presumably many conservative party staff will be sacked after the election because they wont have the money to pay them?

[Lakeland Lass]

Jun 29, 2024 7:37:35 GMT Danny said:

Jun 28, 2024 22:10:26 GMT @isa said:

"Your 8 page tactical voting guide to avoid a Starmer super-majority".

Its very interesting how this complete nonsense about any concept of a super majority in the Uk parliament is being spread by conservatives. You could argue its the biggest lie of this election.

It's another example of the Americanisation of British politics ... who ever heard a UK politician use the term "woke" ten years ago ?

[Danny]

Jun 29, 2024 0:00:10 GMT graham said:

There is a serious risk of Labour voters being misdirected in Wimbledon by the Tactical Voting sites.

In terms of tactical voting, whether someone is being misdirected or not might rather depend on what the tactical goal is. Which could be the ultimate best outcome for whichever specific party you prefer.

[jib]

Jun 29, 2024 7:32:49 GMT Lakeland Lass said:

Jun 28, 2024 22:24:53 GMT robbiealive said:

I found three example in 3 seconds! See my post. Thanks for the fourth.
Oh & by the way JSO generally do everything they can to let emergency vehickes thru.

My mother had an absolute set of values. It was always wrong for men to attack women. You are much more "Men should not attack women unless they get in the way, forget to buy beer, etc".
So 5-minute delay & they are getting sacked. As I hv said critics of JSO have no sense of proportion. You always quote the most extreme possibility. 

The other day I needed air for tires. Woman in front had no idea how to top air in her bf's car. I pumped up a v low tire & all was well. According to yr code I should hv kicked her to the ground/ 

People get held up all the time for all sorts of reasons such as road works, adverse weather or just high traffic volumes and people generally sit quietly in their cars waiting to carry on with their journeys.

However when it's a JSO protest then by some strange quirk of fate every one in the queue turns out to be urgently trying to get their Granny to hospital , desperatly late for picking up children from school, or about to lose their job for arriving late.

What are the odds on that !

The antics of JSO have alienated a lot of people and certainly caused the Green movement to lose political traction.

It's ironic that the Greens are now more hopeful of some rural rather than urban gains. 

JSO are just seen as middle class people immune to the reality of the daily grind of life for most.