|
|
Post by ping on Jun 28, 2024 19:35:44 GMT
Ha ha, agreed. It would at least be nice to know what they think went wrong. I write code for data analysis purposes and, in my case, it's usually that I forgot to add a comma. Having said that, Labour are now back in contention in K&S so I'm sure they've ironed out all the bugs and it's a highly robust prediction  |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jun 28, 2024 19:38:11 GMT
Depressing news about Biden's performance in the US Presidential debate. Let's hope he has the good grace or good sense to stand aside. I think I'm right in saying that he can't just be deselected by the party. I'm sure one of our US experts can correct me if that's wrong. EDIT: Well now that I'm catching up I see that several already have, hours ago! |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 28, 2024 19:38:36 GMT
The Prime Minister of the Uk calls out the disgusting slur from the RefUk activist, a phrase regrettably I heard too many times growing up in the West Midlands in the 60's and 70's and he is right to call it out, these Knuckle draggers should be shamed, but it is these sort of voters the Tories have been chasing with their anti-migrant rhetoric from Braverman and Anderson, and Jenrick who ordered the painting over of Child friendly Murals at a detention centre that may have given some small comfort to traumatised children. I am sorry that the PM's children may have heard their Father referred to in that way, but it's difficult for Dad to take the moral high ground when he has taken £15 million from Frank Hester. I've often wondered if Braverman and Badenoch fully grasp how many of the voters they dog-whistle to actually despise them. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2024 19:43:34 GMT
Farage just said on Question Time that the Labour candidate in Clacton made some 'deeply offensive racist remarks', which is why he was pulled from the constituency. norbold |
|
|
|
Post by robbiealive on Jun 28, 2024 19:57:11 GMT
I don't really get Reform voters. UKIP got 13% in 2015: its supporters wanted Brexit, which they got. Major victory.
The protean Farage is now offering what: zero migration. But everyone knows that cant happen. You cant create it by Act of Parliament.
So as Sunak suggested is it a Bye election surge at a GE. Slighting.
Still it's disconcerting being in a four party election in England.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2024 19:59:07 GMT
Farage has also just said he hopes to 'lift poor people out of society' (he meant poverty), so perhaps he doesn't know what he's talking about tonight.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 28, 2024 20:04:59 GMT
Farage has also just said he hopes to 'lift poor people out of society' (he meant poverty), so perhaps he doesn't know what he's talking about tonight. Farage is the biggest liar in UK politics (and given Boris Johnson, that's saying something). Everything he says is a lie. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 28, 2024 20:16:14 GMT
oldnat , rather surprisingly, decided to intrude into the affairs of a polity of which he always claims little knowledge by publishing two of the local by-election results last night.  Here is the missing one: Hackney - Hoxton West ward by-election-Labour hold LUCAS, Benjamin Alexander Labour Party 880 (64.0%) +10.6 HO, Cheuk Ting Green Party 238 (17.3%) + 2.1 JAISIN, Farhan Conservative and Unionist Party 154 (11.2%) -4.1 PAYNE, Geoffrey Gavin John Liberal Democrats 103 (7.5%) -4.9 No TUSC as previously
|
|
|
|
Post by bardin1 on Jun 28, 2024 20:17:28 GMT
I don't really get Reform voters. UKIP got 13% in 2015: its supporters wanted Brexit, which they got. Major victory. The protean Farage is now offering what: zero migration. But everyone knows that cant happen. You cant create it by Act of Parliament. So as Sunak suggested is it a Bye election surge at a GE. Slighting. Still it's disconcerting being in a four party election in England. In the world of Reform, Brexit didn't happen, except in name. Those EU mandarins are still pulling the strings. Only Farage can save us from them |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 28, 2024 20:33:41 GMT
Ha ha, agreed. It would at least be nice to know what they think went wrong. I write code for data analysis purposes and, in my case, it's usually that I forgot to add a comma. Having said that, Labour are now back in contention in K&S so I'm sure they've ironed out all the bugs and it's a highly robust prediction For what its worth, I've looked at the seats I know a little about - Braintree, Witham, Colchester, Harlow and Chelmsford and the first four predictions are bang in line with what I'm hearing (Con to hold Braintree, Lab to take Colchester, Witham and Harlow on a knife edge). The only one I'm a bit dubious about is Chelmsford, given as a decisive Lib Dem win. The Liberals have been hoping to win Chelmsford since the February 1974 election and have always come up short, so I take predictions of a sweeping victory with a pinch of salt - a narrower win feels more likely to me. |
|
|
|
Post by graham on Jun 28, 2024 20:42:55 GMT
I am not now expecting Labour to manage 40% next week - probably more in the 36% - 39% polled at both 1974 elections and again in 1979.At the same time the scope for any swingback has significantly narrowed with circa 20% of likely voters having already returned postal votes.
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jun 28, 2024 20:44:33 GMT
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,392
|
Post by neilj on Jun 28, 2024 20:53:24 GMT
More in Common
🔵CON 24 (+1)
🔴LAB 39 (-1)
🟠LIB DEM 13 (+2)
🟣REF UK 13 (-1)
🟢GRN 5 (-)
🟡SNP 3 (-)
Dates: 26-28/6 N: 3,361 Tables:
|
|
jib
Member
Posts: 3,010
Member is Online
|
Post by jib on Jun 28, 2024 20:58:04 GMT
More in Common 🔵CON 24 (+1) 🔴LAB 39 (-1) 🟠LIB DEM 13 (+2) 🟣REF UK 13 (-1) 🟢GRN 5 (-) 🟡SNP 3 (-) Dates: 26-28/6 N: 3,361 Tables: Similar to how I see the outcome in 6 days from now. Anyone who thinks they have a "free vote" because Labour will win anyway need to bloody wake up and smell the coffee. This will still be a tight election. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jun 28, 2024 21:14:31 GMT
I don't really get Reform voters. UKIP got 13% in 2015: its supporters wanted Brexit, which they got. Major victory. The protean Farage is now offering what: zero migration. But everyone knows that cant happen. You cant create it by Act of Parliament. So as Sunak suggested is it a Bye election surge at a GE. Slighting. Still it's disconcerting being in a four party election in England. Zero net migration. Probably impossible, but a sensible goal. He doesn't want to ban immigration altogether. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jun 28, 2024 21:18:45 GMT
Farage has also just said he hopes to 'lift poor people out of society' (he meant poverty), so perhaps he doesn't know what he's talking about tonight. Farage is the biggest liar in UK politics (and given Boris Johnson, that's saying something). Everything he says is a lie. That in itself is a lie. It might be what you'd like to think, and his views may be uncomfortable for you to hear, but it's not true that everything he says is a lie. That doesn't mean that I think that he never lies or is 'economical with the truth' as most politicians, and indeed all of us do. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 28, 2024 21:22:39 GMT
More in Common 🔵CON 24 (+1) 🔴LAB 39 (-1) 🟠LIB DEM 13 (+2) 🟣REF UK 13 (-1) 🟢GRN 5 (-) 🟡SNP 3 (-) Dates: 26-28/6 N: 3,361 Tables: Similar to how I see the outcome in 6 days from now. Anyone who thinks they have a "free vote" because Labour will win anyway need to bloody wake up and smell the coffee. This will still be a tight election. I agree with the philosophy of taking no vote for granted*, but a 15% lead can't be described as a "tight" election. * I was talking to a left-wing colleague at work who intends to vote Green in Colchester, despite normally being a Labour voter, because "Labour will win anyway" and "Starmer is too right-wing". That sort of thing would be a real problem if RefUK wasn't splitting the right-wing vote. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 28, 2024 21:27:30 GMT
Farage is the biggest liar in UK politics (and given Boris Johnson, that's saying something). Everything he says is a lie. That in itself is a lie. It might be what you'd like to think, and his views may be uncomfortable for you to hear, but it's not true that everything he says is a lie. That doesn't mean that I think that he never lies or is 'economical with the truth' as most politicians, and indeed all of us do. Rather than me quote all his lies, what do you think he has said that is the complete, unspun, truth? Btw, it is not "uncomfortable for me to hear" because as a working class person from Essex I have been hearing it all my life, not just from ignorant loudmouthed yobs in pubs but my own friends and relatives. I know how to deal with it. |
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Jun 28, 2024 21:33:26 GMT
Crikey, we're all hanging our hats on one isolated poll aren't we?
If it's corroborated by more polls, then maybe we're seeing some movement, but as neilj's "league table" of pollsters clearly shows, we've got a range of almost 10% in terms of the size of Labour's lead over the Tories and the latest More in Common poll is within MOE of what they've been saying for weeks now.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
|
Post by steve on Jun 28, 2024 21:34:58 GMT
Charles Windsor deploys the holy hand grenade of Antioch. Nobody expected that!  |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
|
Post by steve on Jun 28, 2024 21:39:09 GMT
"Similar to how I see the outcome in 6 days from now.
Anyone who thinks they have a "free vote" because Labour will win anyway need to bloody wake up and smell the coffee.This will be a really tight election"
Just the 250 seat majority for Labour then and lib dems and Tories within ten seats of each other.
Really tight.
Said nobody ever.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 28, 2024 21:40:18 GMT
Crikey, we're all hanging our hats on one isolated poll aren't we? If it's corroborated by more polls, then maybe we're seeing some movement, but as neilj's "league table" of pollsters clearly shows, we've got a range of almost 10% in terms of the size of Labour's lead over the Tories and the latest More in Common poll is within MOE of what they've been saying for weeks now. "All"? JiB is the only person who has commented on it! . As you say, a fairly bog-standard typical poll of the moment. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
|
Post by steve on Jun 28, 2024 21:41:44 GMT
"All"? JiB is the only person who has commented on it! " And his comment is total cobblers. It represents the biggest win in seat terms ever. |
|
|
|
Post by eor on Jun 28, 2024 21:41:49 GMT
Survation penultimate MRP Lab 470 Con 85 LD 56 SNP 12 Ref 4 PC 3 Grn 2 Conducted 15th - 27th June. I don't buy it myself! SNP too high for you? |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jun 28, 2024 21:42:50 GMT
That in itself is a lie. It might be what you'd like to think, and his views may be uncomfortable for you to hear, but it's not true that everything he says is a lie. That doesn't mean that I think that he never lies or is 'economical with the truth' as most politicians, and indeed all of us do. Rather than me quote all his lies, what do you think he has said that is the complete, unspun, truth? Btw, it is not "uncomfortable for me to hear" because as a working class person from Essex I have been hearing it all my life, not just from ignorant loudmouthed yobs in pubs but my own friends and relatives. I know how to deal with it. Well off the top of my head he recently reminded us that he had made a speech warning about potential war in Ukraine 10 years ago, which he did, so it wasn't a lie. |
|
|
|
Post by robbiealive on Jun 28, 2024 21:50:03 GMT
Thanks I stand corrected as you hv found a single example. Of course if you were really interested in waiting times you would consider the overall data of chronic delays & slow response times. Did you watch the videos of thugs attacking protestors. I wish I hadn't. Large, burly men throwing women on the ground & running into them. Cheered on by the mob, applauding their "masculinity". My mother would not have approbed of the action but she would never have regarded men who attacked women as "men". They say working-class masculinity is under threat. If those vids are examples, thank god. |
|
|
|
Post by RAF on Jun 28, 2024 21:53:13 GMT
Similar to how I see the outcome in 6 days from now. Anyone who thinks they have a "free vote" because Labour will win anyway need to bloody wake up and smell the coffee. This will still be a tight election. I agree with the philosophy of taking no vote for granted*, but a 15% lead can't be described as a "tight" election. * I was talking to a left-wing colleague at work who intends to vote Green in Colchester, despite normally being a Labour voter, because "Labour will win anyway" and "Starmer is too right-wing". That sort of thing would be a real problem if RefUK wasn't splitting the right-wing vote. It also might not be happening at all in a photo finish. If voting Green is closer to your friend's real views and he normally votes Labour due to the electoral system, then surely his present choice is more democratic? |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 28, 2024 22:07:34 GMT
I agree with Neil:
“There is no next time. It [targeting Reform] must start now,” he (Neil Kinnock) said. “We have to combat this populist nationalism with words, in explaining to people what these people are, not just who they are.
“People like Farage love the personal attention like all narcissists, so we have to focus on explaining what they are and all their inconsistencies and falsehoods. They plant and harvest lies – they always have.”
Kinnock added that if Labour was overly cautious in government, it would play into Reform’s narrative that there was little difference between the two main parties. “Absolutely vitally, [the populist right] have to be combated with actions,” he said. “That means the implementation of change which is positive and cumulative, and driven by strong purpose in the service of the community.”
Kinnock warned his party that leaving the Conservatives to combat Farage’s threat would backfire. “I hope that [the Tories] will resist Faragism, but they haven’t shown guts for the fight, and they’re going to have to,” he said.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jun 28, 2024 22:10:13 GMT
I agree with the philosophy of taking no vote for granted*, but a 15% lead can't be described as a "tight" election. * I was talking to a left-wing colleague at work who intends to vote Green in Colchester, despite normally being a Labour voter, because "Labour will win anyway" and "Starmer is too right-wing". That sort of thing would be a real problem if RefUK wasn't splitting the right-wing vote. It also might not be happening at all in a photo finish. If voting Green is closer to your friend's real views and he normally votes Labour due to the electoral system, then surely his present choice is more democratic? Well he is a she, and I didn't make a particular attempt to change her mind, just explained why Labour had to move to the centre ground to get elected. It was another colleague - not a Labour member - who made more of an argument that this election is about getting the Tories out than anything else. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2024 22:10:26 GMT
Couldn't resist a little chuckle just now watching the Papers Review on Sky. The Daily Mail wetting itself that this might actually happen has a front page headline saying "Your 8 page tactical voting guide to avoid a Starmer super-majority".
|
|
