neilj
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Post by neilj on May 3, 2024 6:51:34 GMT
Tory chairman Richard Holden just claimed his party is in "the mid-term of government"
Mmmm, should someone tell him...
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2024 6:52:22 GMT
Professor Sir John Curtice So far, the results have proven to be disappointing for the Conservatives. This is a form of words looking at it abstractly. But from an actual conservative perspective, it doesnt look much worse so far than last year, which might be seen as good news! |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2024 6:55:14 GMT
Starmer is no Blair but he's blessed to be facing the worst regime in living memory. Rob Ford Best I remember Blair was no Blair before he got elected to PM. Ditto Cameron. Ditto Thatcher. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2024 7:03:12 GMT
Labour dominance not universal (Harlow, Oldham) but that's very much the pattern for local elections. There are always some crumbs left from the feast for the vanquished to console themselves on. And Labour certainly look to be feasting this morning. Labour might talk positive, but only winning half the conservative lost seats is not good news. And they must know that. The general election is set fair for a record number of liberal wins. Wont affect the result, but if we had proportionl representation labour would not get a majority. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2024 7:05:37 GMT
Lots of talk about Labour losing control of Oldham This tweet is useful So Labour down 3.3% compared to 2023 ( also a good year for Labour) Asian population of Oldham is 22% Prior to the election Labour had 32 out of 60 seats, they now have 27, losing 5 Very likely it'll still still mean Labour MPs in the General Election later in the year Its reported labour lost seats in Oldham last year and the year before too. Its not a recent issue to do with the israeli invasion of Gaza so much as a local one. Could still be racial, but if so its longstanding. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 3, 2024 7:08:49 GMT
There's no chance of officially rejoining anytime soon (gradual realignment by stealth will be the order of the day) but if we did, serious social unrest? Give me a f break! Anyone under the age of 60 will either be rejoicing or at worst not care. What would you all do, blockade roads with your zimmerframes? đ At least the very first bit shows some sort of grasp on reality. I've never been under any illusion about that. Until Jan 1st 2021 it could have been reversed at any time. The second after we left the transition period it was like the UK had never been a member. The EU is a tough organisation and as a club exists to prioritise the interests of it's members. We were now outside and it would rightly play hardball with us. I'm looking for an eventual re-alignment on freedom of movement and customs at least much like Norway or Switzerland. We'll be 'rule-takers' and not rule makers as we were before but I couldn't care less about that if it aids the economy and restores individual's rights. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2024 7:13:11 GMT
Labour taken two PCC seats from con, against con holding one in results so far.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 7:13:59 GMT
Sir John Curtice unequivocally opining on the BBC that CON's reversals this evening are squarely due to Boris Johnson's Covid parties and then lying about it and Liz Truss's market-crashing madness.
LAB would do well to ram this home at any opportunity every day of the week and twice on Sundays.
That ignores how staggeringly unpopular Sunak himself is. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 7:19:45 GMT
As I type the tories have so far lost more than half their seats, 121 lost to 116 kept It will be difficult to spin this as anything other than disastrous, even if they manage to keep the West Mids and Tees Valley mayoralty But if Hall wins London as Conservative Central Office suggests, then Sunak declares success and survives. It could happen if: (a) there is a similar polling error overestimating Khan and underestimating his opponent to that in 2021, (b) turnout in outer London is considerably higher than inner London (and it usually is), (c) Muslim voters desert Labour - although Khan being of that faith might help there, (d) enough people have bought the lies and conspiracy theories about the ULEZ extension. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 7:24:57 GMT
In Harlow the tories lost 5 seats and Labour gained 5, the tories now have a wafer thin majority of one If that counts as the 'Biggest comeback since Lazarus' the tories really are in trouble I have commented on Harlow before that it was a tougher nut for Labour to crack than was assumed and that Halfon himself stood a better chance of surviving a GE than the swing suggested by the polls would imply. Fortunately he is not standing again so his large personal vote will disappear with him. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 7:27:07 GMT
Tory chairman Richard Holden just claimed his party is in "the mid-term of government" Mmmm, should someone tell him... Perhaps Sunak is planning to introduce a bill next week to extend the life of the current parliament to ten years? Nothing would surprise me anymore. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 7:28:31 GMT
There have now been 5 parliamentary by elections in this parliament with swings over 20%.
There have only been 12 in total since 1945
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 7:30:35 GMT
"Best I remember Blair was no Blair before he got elected PM'
Other than being the most popular leader of the opposition ever you're rightđ
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Post by crossbat11 on May 3, 2024 7:33:16 GMT
The Greeks bore no gifts last night. Alas, the Villa defence did though.
However, I have just awoken to the great news that my old hometown is back in Labour hands again. The party withered to only 4 councillors not long ago. Redditch has gone back to it's roots and all is good in the world once again. The General Election will be a battle royale and we're in with a real shout, I think.
Oh what a night, early May in 24........
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 7:38:11 GMT
Labour has won the police and crime commissioner election in Avon and Somerset, taking the post from the Conservatives.
Clare Moody, Labour's candidate for the region, beat her Conservative predecessor Mark Shelford by more than 4,000 votes.
The election was for Avon and Somerset Police's PCC, which covers areas including Bristol.
The turnout however was shite barely 1 in 5 bothered to vote.
These posts are largely pointless but even so.
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Post by crossbat11 on May 3, 2024 7:39:47 GMT
I'm being told that my last leaflet delivered to an address in Mercot Close swung Headless Cross and Oakenshaw Labour's way.
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on May 3, 2024 7:41:10 GMT
Sir John Curtice unequivocally opining on the BBC that CON's reversals this evening are squarely due to Boris Johnson's Covid parties and then lying about it and Liz Truss's market-crashing madness.
LAB would do well to ram this home at any opportunity every day of the week and twice on Sundays.
That ignores how staggeringly unpopular Sunak himself is. I think Curtice identifies the two âeventsâ which did for the Tories. To use a boxing analogy, Johnsonâs shenanigans had them reeling on their feet whilst Trussâs exploits was the administering of the knock out blow that there was no coming back from. Even so, itâs weird how Curtice seems to absolve Sunak from any blame. I donât think there was any coming back from September 2022, but a better politician than Sunak would surely have narrowed the gap somewhat, and given them hope that there could be a hung parliament. Sunak will go down as an insignificant footnote in history unless heâs seen as the one who was at the helm as the ship wasnât just wildly buffeted but actually sunk in that infamous Canada 1992 style. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 7:42:36 GMT
King Charles has been presented with a beautifully-illustrated record of his Coronation, almost a year after the historic service at Westminster Abbey.
For at least 700 years, monarchs have been given a "Coronation roll".
Stretching for 69ft, the hand-stitched manuscript was written by calligrapher Stephanie von Werthern-Gill.
And there are no nightmare spelling mistakes, bar a single dot missing over an 'i' at the very end.
The roll records the ceremonies, processions and promises of the Coronation service and shows who was there in the Abbey, particularly those with a ceremonial role, as well as the long lists of royal guests, politicians and overseas representatives.
But not everyone gets a mention.
When the document is finally lodged in the National Archives, there will be no record of Ant and Dec or Katy Perry having been there. And there is not even a hello for Lionel Richie. They have been reduced to a catch-all heading of "Other groups".
There is also no mention of the protests by anti-monarchists that day.
----
Oddly enough there's no mention of what we paid for a document that will now be locked away.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 7:45:06 GMT
Lee Anderson , the former deputy chair of the Conservative party who is now a Reform UK MP, told the Today programme this morning that the result in Blackpool South showed that his party was âhere to stayâ and âmaking in-roadsâ.
6 bob knob said the election results were very bad for his old party, but not his old old party!
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 7:56:21 GMT
I'm being told that my last leaflet delivered to an address in Mercot Close swung Headless Cross and Oakenshaw Labour's way. Any truth in the rumour that it is to be renamed Headless Chickens in tribute to the parliamentary Conservative Party? |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 3, 2024 8:00:30 GMT
Just starting to look at the Redditch council results in some detail. They're utterly extraordinary. Because of ward boundary changes, and uniquely, all 27 seats in the town were up for election. Labour won 21 of them!! Tories lost 11 of those they held, 9 of them to Labour.
Joe Baker, who I know well, will be the new leader of the Council. His first pledge is to halt plans to demolish the town's library.
The populist old devil!!
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Post by johntel on May 3, 2024 8:00:33 GMT
At least the very first bit shows some sort of grasp on reality. I've never been under any illusion about that. Until Jan 1st 2021 it could have been reversed at any time. The second after we left the transition period it was like the UK had never been a member. The EU is a tough organisation and as a club exists to prioritise the interests of it's members. We were now outside and it would rightly play hardball with us. I'm looking for an eventual re-alignment on freedom of movement and customs at least much like Norway or Switzerland. We'll be 'rule-takers' and not rule makers as we were before but I couldn't care less about that if it aids the economy and restores individual's rights. Yes it comes down to the interests of the members. Surely from both an economic and military point of view it would be in their best interests to let the UK rejoin ASAP. |
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
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Post by Dave on May 3, 2024 8:02:25 GMT
I'm being told that my last leaflet delivered to an address in Mercot Close swung Headless Cross and Oakenshaw Labour's way. It Was the Batty Wot Won It! Just to say, it was really sad and genuinely shocking to hear of the death of your young bowler Josh Baker. I have no idea what happened to him as everyone is rightly keeping a dignified silence but God speed young man x |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 8:02:34 GMT
Labour has won the police and crime commissioner election in Avon and Somerset, taking the post from the Conservatives. Clare Moody, Labour's candidate for the region, beat her Conservative predecessor Mark Shelford by more than 4,000 votes. The election was for Avon and Somerset Police's PCC, which covers areas including Bristol. The turnout however was shite barely 1 in 5 bothered to vote. These posts are largely pointless but even so. Also Cumbria PCC: "Labourâs David Allen beat the Tory incumbent by 47% to 30%. In 2021 the Conservatives won with 54% of the vote, more than double Labourâs share." |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 8:04:28 GMT
I'm being told that my last leaflet delivered to an address in Mercot Close swung Headless Cross and Oakenshaw Labour's way. It Was the Batty Wot Won It! Just to say, it was really sad and genuinely shocking to hear of the death of your young bowler Josh Baker. I have no idea what happened to him as everyone is rightly keeping a dignified silence but God speed young man x Yes shocking news. Only 20. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 3, 2024 8:13:30 GMT
It Was the Batty Wot Won It! Just to say, it was really sad and genuinely shocking to hear of the death of your young bowler Josh Baker. I have no idea what happened to him as everyone is rightly keeping a dignified silence but God speed young man x Yes shocking news. Only 20. Very, very sad news and deeply upsetting. I played cricket with his father, Paul, and know Josh's parents well. I followed Josh's highly promising cricketing career not just because he played for Worcester but because I watched him play as a young boy for Astwood Bank CC. And because he was a Redditch lad too. I often chatted to Josh's Mum and Dad at New Road whilst watching Josh play. They were immensely proud of him and loved him deeply. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 3, 2024 8:14:48 GMT
Turnout for the Tees Valley Mayor vote is 30.53%, slightly down from 34% last time
Can't see Houchen losing it, but it will be despite the tory brand, not because of it
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2024 8:16:02 GMT
Lee Anderson , the former deputy chair of the Conservative party who is now a Reform UK MP, told the Today programme this morning that the result in Blackpool South showed that his party was âhere to stayâ and âmaking in-roadsâ. 6 bob knob said the election results were very bad for his old party, but not his old old party! Has anyone told Lee that Reform are yet to win a single councillor in the 35 Councils that have counted so far? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2024 8:24:11 GMT
"Best I remember Blair was no Blair before he got elected PM' Other than being the most popular leader of the opposition ever you're rightđ So I thought to look up Blair's popularity and i dont realy know where I might find it. I did find a piece on his policies for the 1997 election which included: Cut class sizes to 30. Halve the time from arrest to sentencing to discourage crime. (rather the opposite of con policy since, to cut crime by increasing delays) Cut NHS waiting lists (by reducing red tape, but in the end they threw money at it) Get 250,000 under 25s off benefits (using a windfall tax on privatised utilities, something con also want to do but not via windfall taxes) No rise in income tax, and cut fuel VAT to 5%. Interestingly they also proposed an assisted places scheme to fund ordinary students attending private schools, whereas now they are proposing to tax private schools and increase their fees to everyone. reform of the House of Lords (ahem, passed on that one as too difficult for real reform) Heres a page by the Guardian from 1999, arguing it was not Blair popularity which won the election but detestation of con, as per now. The argument might be that Blair became popular BECAUSE he became labour leader www.theguardian.com/politics/1999/jul/18/labour.labour1997to99 Looking at yougov data from 2020, Starmer Sunak and and Johnson's popularity fell to match that of their party. So you could argue, Blair had the same outcome but benefitted from labour already riding high so dragging him up. I seem to remember that both the success of the libs at that election and later the success of SNP were somewhat surprises to politicians, which might reflect a steady longstanding trend of disenchantment with both con and lab, which was rather derailed by the libs coalition but is still there underlying everything, causing the rise of UKIP, Brexit, Refuk. Many voters across the world are unhappy with their traditional parties which all have a hugely consensus approach to government which voters do not like. |
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Post by shevii on May 3, 2024 9:12:11 GMT
But if Hall wins London as Conservative Central Office suggests, then Sunak declares success and survives. It could happen if: (a) there is a similar polling error overestimating Khan and underestimating his opponent to that in 2021, (b) turnout in outer London is considerably higher than inner London (and it usually is), (c) Muslim voters desert Labour - although Khan being of that faith might help there, (d) enough people have bought the lies and conspiracy theories about the ULEZ extension. Surely just last minute wobbles that every candidate gets? Either that or probably some of the worst polling ever conducted- this would be way beyond 2015 and 2017 national polling failings other than with an outlier pollster. 22 point lead with the relatively reliable yougov (at least on that sort of MOE) on their final poll and the lowest ones, according to Wiki, were 13% lead- may as well give up polling regional mayors if they are that far out. Also you have to ask the question how would the Tories (or indeed Labour) know? You can pick up stuff on the doorstep and compare to previous canvass returns but I doubt Tories have done much of this and I suppose you could pick up some stuff on differential turnout between inner and outer boroughs but I can't see how any of this would lead to a firm prediction. Low turnout generally might be an issue for Labour but even then it can still be that Tory voters within a ward or area are the ones who have stayed at home. Either way it can surely only be little snippets that cause the wobbles. I'd have voted Green on all slates but I feel Khan is especially hard done by. Difficult to compare mayors and what is and isn't possible and there's a whole range of factors involved from public transport, clean air, crime, planning etc. But, while not living there now and not hearing much from my mates other than ULEZ, if you compared a couple of the policies- Khan has dug in over clean air and ULEZ when he was under pressure from his own party to change tack after Uxbridge and he has dug in over Green Belt as compared to say, Burnham in Manchester, who bottled and continues to bottle the clean air measures and seems much less bothered about Green Land. It's also hard to not conclude that he is a victim of islamophobia that has been filtering into the mainstream. He's not a radical like Galloway but is being treated as such in some quarters with no justification whatsoever. Still think he will be fine. |
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