lens
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Post by lens on May 10, 2024 15:03:10 GMT
Perhaps one lesson we should take from the London Mayoral election, is that its unlikely the Tory vote will actually fall below 30%. Hall, who I feel was a pretty poor candidate still managed 32.7%, in a supposedly Labour city. I wouldn't take too many lessons towards a General Election vote from the basis of the London Mayoral result. Yes, Hall was a poor candidate, and she undoubtedly suffered further from general Tory unpopularity, but Khan is widely now seen in a very negative way, especially after the ULEZ expansion. Hall's relatively good (or not as bad as may have been predicted) should be seen far more as down to dissatisfaction with Sadiq Khan rather than any pro-Tory feeling in general. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 10, 2024 15:30:01 GMT
There was no legal requirement for the MP to resign - though it was entirely appropriate to remove the Labour Whip from him.
That doesn't indicate that it was Keir Starmer that " persuaded" Mike Hill to stand down. Once he had stood down moving the writ would have to take place within a very short time. I haven't raised this to defend the Labour Leader's political nous, simply that you made a statement which appeared to indicate that Keir Starmer actively encouraged the resignation, I can't find reference to that anywhere, I wondered if you had a source for it. He probably made it up. More sauce than source!! 😜🤣 |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 10, 2024 15:33:39 GMT
"That's getting on for a brand new Birmingham in just over a decade, or a brand new Coventry every single year." Or around 500 less of the U.K.'s 2500 golf courses over a decade! Totally sustainable I dunno about the viability, leftieliberal seems to know more about that, but this seems as good a time as any to post George Carlin on the matter: m.youtube.com/watch?v=GchEbLSY9FYIt's quite simple; there is a strong presumption in planning law against development in the Green Belt or on Metropolitan Open Land. It wasn't even straightforward for the All-England Club to get permission to convert the adjacent golf course which they had bought from the members to new tennis courts and associated buildings. The only significant examples of Green Belt development for housing in my own Borough were the Marconi site, where the area for housing was the same as that covered by the the original industrial buildings, and the RNOH next door to it where some housing was allowed as part of a re-development of the site that reduced the footprint of the hospital buildings by replacing old 1940s buildings with new buildings. There is a good deal of low-grade land in this part of the Green Belt, but anyone who knows about the ribbon development of the 1930s will appreciate why the introduction of the Green Belt was essential. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 10, 2024 15:37:51 GMT
Perhaps one lesson we should take from the London Mayoral election, is that its unlikely the Tory vote will actually fall below 30%. Hall, who I feel was a pretty poor candidate still managed 32.7%, in a supposedly Labour city. I wouldn't take too many lessons towards a General Election vote from the basis of the London Mayoral result. Yes, Hall was a poor candidate, and she undoubtedly suffered further from general Tory unpopularity, but Khan is widely now seen in a very negative way, especially after the ULEZ expansion. Hall's relatively good (or not as bad as may have been predicted) should be seen far more as down to dissatisfaction with Sadiq Khan rather than any pro-Tory feeling in general. I agree. There is a lot of personal voting in Mayoral elections and the candidate is often detached from his or hers party colours in the minds of voters. I would imagine some Tory voters supported Burnham in Manchester, Labour voters Street and Houchen etc. There may well be some anti-voting too, depending on local issues. Khan may well have had many Labour voters disillusioned with his mayoralty and they could well have loaned their votes to Hall. It's possible too that some Tory voters supported him but will vote Tory in a general election. They really are esoteric and quixotic contests that don't really conform to current political tides. Voting behaviour can't be read across to more conventional elections. |
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Post by graham on May 10, 2024 15:43:31 GMT
graham Pincher lost the Government whip, but carries on for another year before the Parliamentary standards committee recommended Pincher be suspended from Parliament for eight weeks, only then resigning. Do you really think that was good for the Tories As far as the public were concerned Pincher was a tory, regardless of whether he lost the whip Hill would of similarly been considered as Labour and it being dragged out for another year would of caused Labour more damage Mist people now can't even remember Hil I am not sure that Pincher's conduct was any more of an issue a year later - if anything memory of it in the public mind had probably faded a bit. What did make a difference was that over that period the Tories became more unpopular nationally - a year earlier they may even have held the seat! Delaying the Hartlepool by election would not have become an issue in itself - any more than it did in Tamworth - but I am very cofident that Labour would have fared better at a by election held in Spring 2022 compared with a year earlier.
I note that the Tory MP for Delyn is still sitting! As for Starmer's role in Hill's resignation, it was widely reported at the time - and has never been denied.
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Post by leftieliberal on May 10, 2024 15:48:53 GMT
Hello everyone, happy Friday. So the polls seem to be resuming their normal service, with lovely Labour leads. Perhaps one lesson we should take from the London Mayoral election, is that its unlikely the Tory vote will actually fall below 30%. Hall, who I feel was a pretty poor candidate still managed 32.7%, in a supposedly Labour city. Probably not looking like a Tory wipe-out.
With a 10% lead in a GE, I would be very surprised if Labour did not get an OM. Although we tend to talk of London as a Labour city, the Tory vote has held up in London better than anywhere else in the country. There is a graph in my analysis of Redfield and Wilton polling for the first two months of 2022, 2023 and 2024 that illustrates this. ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/122246 As the Mayoral election had a turnout of only just over 40%, I would expect a higher proportion of Labour voters to turn out in a General Election as well. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 10, 2024 15:56:32 GMT
grahamIf you really think keeping a sex pest in Parliament, while a long and protracted process to get rid of him played out would be better news for Labour than him going quickly, then it isn't Starmer who doesn't have a political antennae...
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Post by leftieliberal on May 10, 2024 15:57:12 GMT
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Post by leftieliberal on May 10, 2024 16:11:12 GMT
A bit of light relief as the Marsh family channel their inner Johnny Cash with " A Mayor named Sue". |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 10, 2024 16:15:44 GMT
Talking of edifying and stimulating old UKPR debates, and considering we've rehashed the The Political Life and Times of Jeremy Corbyn once again today, did we ever get to the bottom of whether Liz Truss was a trollop or not?
It's worth another airing I think because it came up on more than a few doorsteps during the recent local elections. As did Corbyn and May too. Wilson seems to have finally slipped under the sands of time alas.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 10, 2024 16:26:23 GMT
Neither had I. Unfortunately, the Left in France never seems to be able to get its act together, attacking each other rather than the real enemy. Sounds like UKPR2  |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 10, 2024 16:28:55 GMT
One local government by-election today and the rare chance of a Labour gain direct from the Conservatives in Scotland. It will be seen that the late Conservative councillor had only been in third place in first preferences behind Labour and the SNP, with Labour topping the poll. Logically therefore in a single member by-election (and given the mess the SNP and Conservatives are in) a Labour gain is highly likely. NORTH AYRSHIRE UA; Kilwinning (Con died) GIBSON, Ian Charles (Scottish Family Party) GIBSON, Sheila (SNP) HUME, Mary (Labour) KIRKWOOD, Ruby (Liberal Democrat) LAWLER, Chris (Conservative) 2022: Lab 1714, 842 (both elected); SNP 1225 (elected), 714; Con 867 (elected); LD 191 And so it came to pass. www.markpack.org.uk/171064/lib-dems-stand-in-ward-for-first-time-as-new-batch-of-by-elections-kick-off/Nice to see the SNP keeping up their fine record of managing to win nothing at all anywhere since May 2023. |
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Post by mercian on May 10, 2024 16:34:13 GMT
Talking of edifying and stimulating old UKPR debates, and considering we've rehashed the The Political Life and Times of Jeremy Corbyn once again today, did we ever get to the bottom of whether Liz Truss was a trollop or not? It's worth another airing I think because it came up on more than a few doorsteps during the recent local elections. As did Corbyn and May too. Wilson seems to have finally slipped under the sands of time alas. I'm just glad that the animated debate about Lord Palmerston has finally petered out on UKPR2. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 10, 2024 16:48:58 GMT
Talking of edifying and stimulating old UKPR debates, and considering we've rehashed the The Political Life and Times of Jeremy Corbyn once again today, did we ever get to the bottom of whether Liz Truss was a trollop or not? It's worth another airing I think because it came up on more than a few doorsteps during the recent local elections. As did Corbyn and May too. Wilson seems to have finally slipped under the sands of time alas. Yes it’s quite good this place for learning about the past. You got me into Wilson, talking about the book you read 👍 The past might not come up on the doorstep, but it helps to explain polling, which is handy for those of us who aren’t activistas As for the activista uses of the past, that got used yesterday in associating Starmer with someone even further back: Attlee! I suppose you could try that on the doorstep, see how it goes? Although maybe could go still further back, given who Starmer was named after. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 10, 2024 17:00:02 GMT
Talking of edifying and stimulating old UKPR debates, and considering we've rehashed the The Political Life and Times of Jeremy Corbyn once again today, did we ever get to the bottom of whether Liz Truss was a trollop or not? It's worth another airing I think because it came up on more than a few doorsteps during the recent local elections. As did Corbyn and May too. Wilson seems to have finally slipped under the sands of time alas. I'm just glad that the animated debate about Lord Palmerston has finally petered out on UKPR2. we’re working our way back Pete. I was on about when MacMillan first stood for the Tories the other day. (That’s further back than graham usually goes. I think he gave it a like) |
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Post by alec on May 10, 2024 17:02:05 GMT
Some interesting discussions in the covid aware community over the last couple of days looking at the high levels of other pathogens.
As previously discussed, there are some who think that covid is damaging immune systems in some way, and while there is some evidence of this from scientific studies, the evidence on the nature and extent of this damage is highly disputed, although it is now generally accepted that some level of damage/disruption occurs.
Recent discussions have centred on whooping cough and Cryptosporidium Parvum. Whooping cough in the UK (and elsewhere) is at high levels, with 5 child deaths reported by UKHSA recently. The UKHSA have attempted to blame lockdowns for this outbreak, despite the fact that the deaths and many of the cases are in children not born when lockdowns ended, so while it is possible that high cases are in some part a hang up of lower levels of infection in 2020 & 2021, that seems an unlikely explanation for the bulk of cases. The covid aware community has gone wholesale on immune damage, but likewise that seems to be jumping the gun. The stand out issue appears to be falling vaccination levels, which were falling well before covid and have gone further down since. On this one, a combination of all three factors seems likely, with low vaccination rates probably the greatest influence.
Cryptosporidium Parvum is altogether more interesting. It's an environmental pathogen causing sickness and diarrhea, and not prone to person to person spread so much, and wasn't as a consequence affected by social restrictions during lockdown. There is also no vaccination program. Cases are usually low and fairly stable, although there was one notable spike in 2017 and another in late 2019 before covid struck. No other major waves were picked up in the UK going back to at least 2014. So the pattern since covid arrived is noteworthy;regular big peaks, bigger than anything previously seen, with those peaks getting bigger and the troughs shortlived while also being something like 8 times higher than normal pre covid levels. There is also some evidence that the Cryptosporidium Parvum peaks follow covid waves with a time lag, although the data is a bit messy.
What is particularly noteworthy about this one is that Cryptosporidium Parvum was picked up as being an indicator of HIV infection in the AIDS pandemic. We're all exposed to some level of Cryptosporidium Parvum on a more or less routine basis, but few suffer symptoms, unless you have a particular heavy dose or your immune system is impaired in some way. Whether this is a factor here is going to be worth watching, and there are other possibilities. There could be a new strain, more widespread testing, warmer weather, deteriorating water quality issues etc etc. But this is another pathogen, like Strep A and TB, where we are seeing far more cases that pre 2020 and which are known to be indicative of weakened immune systems.
I can't say if this is a relevant factor, but I would be far happier if the UKHSA entertained the possibility that it was and led some proper research into the matter, rather than assume it's all about a few weeks at home three years ago.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 10, 2024 17:10:37 GMT
'We Think' continues the trend of increasing Labour leads
Labour up 3 points.
🔴 Lab 47% (+3)
🔵 Con 24% (NC)
🟠 LD 9% (+1)
⚪ Ref 10% (-3)
🟢 Green 6% (NC)
🟡 SNP 2% (NC)
Best PM
As we mention things that are less than 25%, this now includes the percentage of those interviewed who think Rishi would be the better Prime Minister.
🔴 Sir Keir Starmer: 45% (+3)
🔵 Rishi Sunak: 23% (-3)
⚪ Don’t Know: 32% (NC
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 10, 2024 17:12:58 GMT
Redfield Wilton Scotland
Largest Labour lead in Scotland with ANY polling company since June 2014.
Scotland Westminster VI (8-9 May):
Labour 38% (+5)
SNP 31% (-1)
Conservative 14% (-3)
Lib Dem 8% (–)
Reform 4% (-1)
Green 4% (+2)
Alba 1% (-1)
Other 0% (–)
Changes +/- 6-7 April
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 10, 2024 17:25:42 GMT
There is a good deal of low-grade land in this part of the Green Belt, but anyone who knows about the ribbon development of the 1930s will appreciate why the introduction of the Green Belt was essential. I assume you mean development along roadways? Just why is this undesireable, because, no, I dont understand the problem. You built the connecting infrastructure anyway, so why not use it? |
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Post by alec on May 10, 2024 17:27:18 GMT
After my assessment of Labour being very happy with the outcome of the local elections and Suak's attempts to play the hung parliament card, I'd suggest Reeves and Starmer will be equally buoyed by the GDP figures. It's generally always been easier for challengers to oust the incumbent when economic circumstance look to be on the up, because, I suspect, old governments are always tired and worn out and voters give their promises less credibility. Challengers can't go for the 'safety first' play, but have to excite with the new, but that's genuinely difficult if the economy is going to hell in a handcart.
Reeves may well have the opportunity to talk about what life will look like with the economy on the up, and I suspect people are ready to listen to her.
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Post by alec on May 10, 2024 17:32:50 GMT
mercian - I read your link to the Matt Goodwin article on immigration. While I don't bother about the immigrant bit, his analysis of the population numbers is spot on. Like covid & climate change, I don't think most people have the remotest idea of what's actually going on, despite their own personal experiences and a mass of hard data. The growth of the English population over the last decade or so is absolutely astonishing, and not in a good way.
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Post by leftieliberal on May 10, 2024 17:32:58 GMT
Redfield Wilton Scotland Largest Labour lead in Scotland with ANY polling company since June 2014. Scotland Westminster VI (8-9 May): Labour 38% (+5) SNP 31% (-1) Conservative 14% (-3) Lib Dem 8% (–) Reform 4% (-1) Green 4% (+2) Alba 1% (-1) Other 0% (–) Changes +/- 6-7 April So no John Swinney bounce? |
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Post by mercian on May 10, 2024 17:47:00 GMT
Some interesting discussions in the covid aware community over the last couple of days Can I recommend this link to you? www.reddit.com/r/medical/?rdt=60349&force_seo=1I know we talk about all sorts of stuff here but you might find a more receptive audience for your medical musings there. |
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Post by mercian on May 10, 2024 17:50:23 GMT
mercian - I read your link to the Matt Goodwin article on immigration. While I don't bother about the immigrant bit, his analysis of the population numbers is spot on. Like covid & climate change, I don't think most people have the remotest idea of what's actually going on, despite their own personal experiences and a mass of hard data. The growth of the English population over the last decade or so is absolutely astonishing, and not in a good way. I think his point is that the very fast population growth is largely driven by immigration. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 10, 2024 17:53:10 GMT
Redfield Wilton Scotland Largest Labour lead in Scotland with ANY polling company since June 2014. Scotland Westminster VI (8-9 May): Labour 38% (+5) SNP 31% (-1) Conservative 14% (-3) Lib Dem 8% (–) Reform 4% (-1) Green 4% (+2) Alba 1% (-1) Other 0% (–) Changes +/- 6-7 April Only one poll, I know, but that 14% for the Tories is getting close to an historical low, isn't it? I think they got a 14% vote share and total seat wipeout in Scotland in 1997 but, with a few ups and downs along the way, they have improved their showing since then in terms of seats and vote share. Is it 1997 all over again for the Tories in Scotland this year? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 10, 2024 17:58:14 GMT
although it is now generally accepted that some level of damage/disruption occurs. As they say on wikipedia, "weazel words". Obviously covid creates some level of damage. So does every cold you ever had. The question is whether this is both significant and indeed unusual. Thats two years of disruption. And it all came about because of gross over estimation of risk and misunderstanding of who was really at risk and who not. There are huge real cost to a 'precautionary principle' which does something like suspending the world economy for a year. The major costs of covid were caused by the interventions, not the disease left to run its natural course. |
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Post by alec on May 10, 2024 18:12:16 GMT
mercian - "I think his point is that the very fast population growth is largely driven by immigration." Indeed. I'm untroubled by the source of the growth, it's the growth from any source that is so troublesome.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 10, 2024 18:14:11 GMT
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Post by alec on May 10, 2024 18:15:13 GMT
Danny - "Obviously covid creates some level of damage. So does every cold you ever had." No they don't. Doh! Common colds don't even activate the adaptive immune system.
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Post by graham on May 10, 2024 18:17:04 GMT
graham If you really think keeping a sex pest in Parliament, while a long and protracted process to get rid of him played out would be better news for Labour than him going quickly, then it isn't Starmer who doesn't have a political antennae... That really is not the point at all. Starmer's role was limited to removing Hill from the PLP by depriving him of the Whip. Beyond that , he should have had no involvement in the matter and left it entirely to the authorities. |
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