steve
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Post by steve on May 6, 2024 8:00:57 GMT
"Only three in 10 Britons think the monarchy is “very important”, the lowest proportion on record, a poll shows as the king’s coronation approaches.
A survey by the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) shows public support for the monarchy has fallen to a historic low. A total of 45% of respondents said either it should be abolished, was not at all important or not very important.
In 2022, the year of the late queen’s platinum jubilee, 35% of respondents gave one of the same three answers. Overall, answers in 2023 displayed a drop in support for the monarchy to roughly the levels last seen in 2021.
The data, based on 6,638 interviews, builds on 40 years of data collected for the annual British Social Attitudes survey. It shows the number of people who say the monarchy is “very important” has fallen to 29%, from 38% in 2022.
This reflects a long-term trend of declining support for the monarchy, with the new research showing the number of those answering “very important” at the lowest level since data collection began in 1983. "
April 2023
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 6, 2024 8:05:54 GMT
I think any potential successor would also have to confront the economic issue driving part of the war for Russia - the potential huge gas reserves in the Sea of Azov and need (from Russia's perspective) to control Mariapol and Crimea to be able to extract the gas and transport it; and to ensure it does nor fall into the hands of Ukraine. Not forgetting eastern ukraine has the largest unexploited reserves in europe of minerals needed for the switch to battery electric. Most of these currently come from China. So ukraine offers grain, gas and the raw materials for renewable energy. That's a hereto ignored bonanza. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2024 8:09:17 GMT
Now the local elections are out of the way, to return to the mystery of how Trump is doing so well in polls despite all the very obvious problems he has (and he still is doing well btw - Emerson College polled the 7 key swing states 25-29 April and Trump led in all of them. National polling is more or less level, but irrelevant). Just on that point - you're right of course that national vote share has no direct bearing on the outcome. But I think national polling is still useful at this stage because there is vastly more of it than there is state polling, and it has a pretty strong track record in recent elections. So while it would miss something local that disproportionately affected one key state, any more general shift in sentiment that was likely to impact multiple swing states would almost certainly become visible in national polling more quickly and more clearly than it would in the state polling. Yes a fair enough point. I should perhaps have said "national polling is irrelevant while it is this close to being tied." If Biden was 3-4%+ ahead then he would be very likely to win the Electoral College, so obviously that is worth watching. However, as we know from 2000 and 2016 that when it is close the Democrats can win the national vote and lose the EC. Of course, an improvement for either candidate in the national polling should also be reflected at state level. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 6, 2024 8:21:35 GMT
pjw1961In 2016 it wasn't even close Hillary Clinton won the national vote by around three million, around the same number as the entire population of Mississippi.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 6, 2024 8:25:10 GMT
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Post by jib on May 6, 2024 8:29:58 GMT
Just on that point - you're right of course that national vote share has no direct bearing on the outcome. But I think national polling is still useful at this stage because there is vastly more of it than there is state polling, and it has a pretty strong track record in recent elections. So while it would miss something local that disproportionately affected one key state, any more general shift in sentiment that was likely to impact multiple swing states would almost certainly become visible in national polling more quickly and more clearly than it would in the state polling. Yes a fair enough point. I should perhaps have said "national polling is irrelevant while it is this close to being tied." If Biden was 3-4%+ ahead then he would be very likely to win the Electoral College, so obviously that is worth watching. However, as we know from 2000 and 2016 that when it is close the Democrats can win the national vote and lose the EC. Of course, an improvement for either candidate in the national polling should also be reflected at state level. Exactly. It'll be the voters in Arizona, Michigan and Georgia that decide if it's Trump or Biden. As has been pointed out already, Trump currently leads all three. The national picture and vote stacking on the North East and West Coasts is of academic interest only. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 6, 2024 8:42:00 GMT
oldnat Like democracy, I think that constitutional monarchy is a terrible system, just better than all the others. An absolute monarchy is obviously very risky and often bad, as is an elected head of state with executive power (e.g. Trump, Putin). An alternative would be an elected head of state with mostly ceremonial duties. How would that be better than what we have? The monarchy brings in loads of tourism and the extended family perform a lot of opening fetes, being patrons of various bodies and so on which you wouldn't get with an elected head of state. Looking at the RSPCA vs the NSPCC, the former is a larger (but not massively larger) charity so I guess that having a Royal Patron has a positive effect on public donations. To be honest, I couldn't see an elected (non-political) head of state willingly going back to work while still undergoing treatment for cancer. I would also worry about the type of people who would seek this sort of role if we ruled that no politician would be eligible. We have enough of a cult of celebrity in this country already (although I wouldn't complain about a president Monty Don).  |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 6, 2024 8:44:58 GMT
oldnat Like democracy, I think that constitutional monarchy is a terrible system, just better than all the others. An absolute monarchy is obviously very risky and often bad, as is an elected head of state with executive power (e.g. Trump, Putin). An alternative would be an elected head of state with mostly ceremonial duties. How would that be better than what we have? The monarchy brings in loads of tourism and the extended family perform a lot of opening fetes, being patrons of various bodies and so on which you wouldn't get with an elected head of state.
You may like to have Andrew Windsor as your Earl in Mercia to open your fetes, but 75% of those in the Highlands in this poll want him stripped of that fatuous title in Inverness.I believe Princess Anne is very popular in Scotland; I always see her when the Scottish Team play at Murrayfield. |
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Post by bardin1 on May 6, 2024 9:03:45 GMT
You may like to have Andrew Windsor as your Earl in Mercia to open your fetes, but 75% of those in the Highlands in this poll want him stripped of that fatuous title in Inverness.I believe Princess Anne is very popular in Scotland; I always see her when the Scottish Team play at Murrayfield. She's the best of the royals at offloading, I understand, though she's a bit long in the tooth to be an automatic first choice these days |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 6, 2024 9:09:49 GMT
"The national picture and vote stacking on the North East and West Coasts is of academic interest only."
It will cease to be of " academic interest only" if the U.S. ends up with a fascist lunatic set on personal vengeance as president that they overwhelmingly voted against.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 6, 2024 9:18:32 GMT
oldnat Like democracy, I think that constitutional monarchy is a terrible system, just better than all the others. An absolute monarchy is obviously very risky and often bad, as is an elected head of state with executive power (e.g. Trump, Putin). An alternative would be an elected head of state with mostly ceremonial duties. How would that be better than what we have? The monarchy brings in loads of tourism and the extended family perform a lot of opening fetes, being patrons of various bodies and so on which you wouldn't get with an elected head of state. Looking at the RSPCA vs the NSPCC, the former is a larger (but not massively larger) charity so I guess that having a Royal Patron has a positive effect on public donations. To be honest, I couldn't see an elected (non-political) head of state willingly going back to work while still undergoing treatment for cancer. I would also worry about the type of people who would seek this sort of role if we ruled that no politician would be eligible. We have enough of a cult of celebrity in this country already (although I wouldn't complain about a president Monty Don).
It was, no doubt, unfair for the assumption to be made that (if Royal patronage mattered) that in England being cruel to animals was worse than being cruel to children. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 6, 2024 9:21:41 GMT
"To be honest, I couldn't see an elected (non-political) head of state willingly going back to work while still undergoing treatment for cancer. "
Most people undertaking long term treatment for cancer continue to work.
Faith had cancer 35 years ago and took just five days off.
On the point of elected leaders returning to work quickly
Just looking at U.S. presidents Eisenhower had a least one heart attack , returned to work after around a month.
President Roosevelt was ill throughout his presidency and died of a cerebral haemorrhage 84 days into his last term.
Woodrow Wilson had a series of strokes while in office and continued to work
Grover Cleveland had a cancerous growth in his mouth it was removed in secret during a 90 minute operation on a boat.
There are other incidents of U.S. presidents overcoming serious illness and injury going back to George Washington.
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2024 9:22:02 GMT
That reminds me - I was working in bromley when the Iron Curtain came down and they were selling off bits of the berlin wall. There was a suggestion the council could buy it and erect it between Bromley and Lewisham Haha! Bromley is lovely but I can imagine that being considered. Perhaps also another between Bromley and Croydon. |
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2024 9:26:20 GMT
pjw1961In 2016 it wasn't even close Hillary Clinton won the national vote by around three million, around the same number as the entire population of Mississippi. That sounds a lot but it was only 2% of the overall popular vote. She won that by 48.2% to 46.1%. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 6, 2024 9:31:04 GMT
RAFI definitely remember a wall between Streatham where I was born and Thornton Heath on the A23 there were at least a dozen search lights and machine gun posts. Mind you I was only 18 months old when we moved to leafy Hemel Hempstead so it's possible I might have misrecalled.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 6, 2024 9:32:25 GMT
"That sounds a lot but it was only 2%"
Or an overwhelming mandate and will of the people as the brexitanians insist.
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Post by alec on May 6, 2024 9:54:57 GMT
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Post by RAF on May 6, 2024 10:00:55 GMT
RAFI definitely remember a wall between Streatham where I was born and Thornton Heath on the A23 there were at least a dozen search lights and machine gun posts. Mind you I was only 18 months old when we moved to leafy Hemel Hempstead so it's possible I might have misrecalled. Sounds correct. Thornton Heath is still a very dangerous area of Croydon. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2024 10:03:18 GMT
pjw1961 In 2016 it wasn't even close Hillary Clinton won the national vote by around three million, around the same number as the entire population of Mississippi. Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1% and lost the EC - hence my point that Biden needs to be 3 to 4% ahead to be the likely winner. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2024 10:07:24 GMT
It used to be the other way around in Scotland - SSPCA (Scottish Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals) and RSSPCC (Royal Scottish Society for Prevention of Cruelty to Children) - till the Scots charity changed its mind and dropped the "Royal", and is now just called Children First.
It was, no doubt, unfair for the assumption to be made that (if Royal patronage mattered) that in England being cruel to animals was worse than being cruel to children. Until recently the Royal family were notably keen on being cruel to animals, many a fox ripped apart and grouse blasted to bits. I think they have toned it down recently as it was deemed to not be a good look. |
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Post by EmCat on May 6, 2024 10:08:23 GMT
one thing that occurred to me as a former programmer and system developer and project manager - was that some of the people involved in the development MUST have known about the faults in Horizon. ... At the very least why didn't somebody get it fixed and sneak out an update 'for security reasons' which stopped the errors? So not only is the Post Office culpable, but also Fujitsu. Declaration of Interest: I never liked ICL As is often stated: On Time. On Budget. Fully featured (and working). You can only pick two. No doubt some high up in the organisation were being told that certain implementation dates were immutable. Not only that, but (being government sponsored), the cost would most likely be fixed as well. Which leaves the features. And the reliability. Just because a problem is known, doesn't necessarily mean that it will be fixed (if it even can be fixed), if it goes against either of the On Time or On Budget parts. (As an aside, a former colleague told me how he watched an ICL mainframe being upgraded, at some point in the early 1980s. The engineer opened up the casing, and my colleague thought that meant a circuit board or two would be removed, and replaced with higher specification ones. It turned out that there was a screen and keyboard inside the case. The "upgrade' involved reducing the time of the delay loops to make the system run more slowly than its maximum capability) |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 6, 2024 10:09:39 GMT
I guess you best join Reform then Alec. |
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Post by alec on May 6, 2024 10:13:16 GMT
domjg - "I guess you best join Reform then Alec." That's a completely daft response, tbh. What has population reduction got to do with Reform? This isn't about immigration.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2024 10:33:06 GMT
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Post by jimjam on May 6, 2024 10:38:31 GMT
Jay re "Curtis says that this is all consistent with the 20 point lead polling. This prompts suspicion in BMG, Savanta (nee ComRes) and Opinium. In particular it suggest Opinium's methodology change seem to have led them in the wrong direction"
I see it slightly differently in that what Opinium and a couple others are doing is not reporting current polling leads but stating what the result would be in a GE based on current VI by adding an element of swingback to arrive at headline figures.
Their methodology is sound, although one can quibble at the edges, but in simple terms is not a VI snapshot.
The failure imo is not with their methodology but with the way their results are reported. They are complicit in this with their tweets saying latest opinion poll etc but lazy journalists are the main culprits.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 6, 2024 10:46:37 GMT
jimjamRe Opinium etc, the other point is that as we are getting closer to the election it's noticeable they are moving closer to other pollsters Convergence was always likely to happen, either other pollsters moving their lead down or, as now, Opinium showing an increased Labour lead
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Post by jimjam on May 6, 2024 10:46:53 GMT
From Matt Singh:
"Wow – that's some serious tactical swing
In Con/Lab wards:
LAB +9
LD no change
In Con/LD wards:
LAB +2
LD +6"
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Post by alec on May 6, 2024 10:53:24 GMT
domjg - just checked Reform's policies. They say nothing at all about population numbers, only about immigration. It's a terrible mistake the left keeps making, to assume people are crypto-facists because they are concerned about over population. It's even a mistake to make that same assumption if the issue is only immigration; that's how the left tried to deal with Farage, and it opened the way to Brexit. Globally, nationally and locally, we face an overcrowding problem which won't be resolved until we accept that a managed descent from over 8bn humans is one of the required choices. We either agree this and manage the transition in a sensitive and humane manner, or we let events take their course, and live in a world where flood, famine and disease do the job for us. As a left winger, I intuitively know which groups and populations will suffer the greatest hardships if that happens.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 6, 2024 11:03:11 GMT
domjg - just checked Reform's policies. They say nothing at all about population numbers, only about immigration. It's a terrible mistake the left keeps making, to assume people are crypto-facists because they are concerned about over population. It's even a mistake to make that same assumption if the issue is only immigration; that's how the left tried to deal with Farage, and it opened the way to Brexit. Globally, nationally and locally, we face an overcrowding problem which won't be resolved until we accept that a managed descent from over 8bn humans is one of the required choices. We either agree this and manage the transition in a sensitive and humane manner, or we let events take their course, and live in a world where flood, famine and disease do the job for us. As a left winger, I intuitively know which groups and populations will suffer the greatest hardships if that happens. Which is exactly why I mentioned them. The birth rate in all western nations is falling to well below replacement level as you well know and it's only immigration that is keeping the population balanced. It's a long term thing and we need more young people than we can naturally provide for the time being as there are so many oldies. That will balance out over time. In a few years the only place where your population proselytising will be needed will be Africa. You could be a kind of missionary telling them how their culture should be. I'm sure they'll love you for it! The world population is taking care of itself but these things play out over fairly long periods of time, obviously. |
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Post by alec on May 6, 2024 11:06:52 GMT
domjg - "In a few years the only place where your population proselytising will be needed will be Africa. You could be a kind of missionary telling them how their culture should be. I'm sure they'll love you for it!" That's completely wrong. The countries where we need population declines the most are the rich western countries, because the individual levels of consumption here means that the overall population impacts are far greater. You're point on needing young people is also misguided. I'm old enough to remember all those articles (from about 2 years ago) telling us we were on the verge of a 4th industrial revolution and how universal basic income and a 4 day working week was the future. We have technologies that mean we can work far more efficiently. We can do much more with far fewer people, freeing up labour for the personal contact jobs that really need human involvement.
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