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Post by steamdrivenandy on Feb 8, 2024 9:29:18 GMT
The regime in its continuing war on democracy has decided to create a whole new series of things that can be arrested and imprisoned for. None of these powers were requested by the police service of course. Amongst these arrestable and imprisonable offences will be wearing a mask or other face covering at " specified " demonstrations, carrying a sparkler in public and climbing on a statue of a politician or royal or large statues of cannons. So you're fucked if you are at a parade of clowns with an interest in small pyrotechnics and scaling public memorials, unless it's at a countryside alliance march when it's fine. The changes come in April Walking on the cracks in the pavement and looking at Tories in a funny way will be added in May. In my lifetime paving slabs as pavements seem to have disappeared, with tarmac surfacing type stuff being used instead. Now I realise it's been a big Tory plot all along and they've sold off all the removed paving stones for cash. A joyless bunch, removing one of childhood's rites of passage. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 8, 2024 9:34:00 GMT
But my point wasn't really that people obviously died from covid but that overall it had no impact at all on life expectancy, which rose in Sweden during covid, which surprised me. because of covid, people lived longer on average... has to mean while some died earlier, others died later. Was that truly worth trying to prevent? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 8, 2024 9:34:52 GMT
“ 72% of Britons say it was unacceptable for Rishi Sunak to accept Piers Morgan's £1,000 bet on whether his government would be able to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda before the general election.” As always there is a near 30% core who don’t find it unacceptable. Must say I find it really weird as well though. Only takes 30% of voters turning out for you to win. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 8, 2024 9:39:13 GMT
SDA I suppose in the absence of cracks in the pavement they could try some other offence. Being the wrong length perhaps They could call it Apartheight! Attachment Deleted |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Feb 8, 2024 10:00:07 GMT
By popular demand (and to console crossbat11 after last night's debacle) local government by-elections are back: BLAENAU GWENT UA; Ebbw Vale South (Lab elected as Ind resigned) Candidates: MILLARD, Jonathan David (Independent) POWELL, Jonathan (Green) SMITH, Amy (Labour) 2022: Ind 385 (elected), 320, 260; Lab 354 (elected), 296; Con 97 If the Independent wins would technically be a gain from Labour as the previous Indie swapped sides, but I would regard as an "Ind hold". Or if Labour win then I would see it as "Lab gain" rather than "Lab hold". Depends how you choose to view these things. CHESHIRE EAST UA; Crewe Central (Lab resigned) Candidates: BROWNE, Te Ata (Green) JAMSON, Kim (Labour) MORRIS, Roger James (Conservative) PULMAN, Vicky (Women’s Equality Party) SILVESTER, Brian George (Putting Crewe First) 2023: Lab 448; Con 192; Crewe 1st 126; RefUK 53 Should be a "Labour hold" GWYNEDD UA; Criccieth (Ind died) Candidates: ALLPORT, John (Independent) GENTRY, Bernard (Conservative) JOYCE, Andrew Richard (Liberal Democrat) WILLIAMS, Sian (Plaid Cymru) 2022: Ind 263; PC 231; Lab 62 Independent or PC one presumes, with the former the favorite. WEST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE UA; East Hunsbury & Shelfleys (Con resigned) Candidates: ROBERTSON-MARRIOTT, Clare (Labour) SOAN, Daniel (Conservative) SQUIRES, Carl Neville Mark (Liberal Democrat) 2021: Con 1923, 1878, 1715; Lab 911; LD 848, 792 Should be safe Conservative. By the way, this is one of those cases where it is hard in a multi-member ward to work out the prior vote percentages. The normally favoured method of calculation - taking the top candidate for each party - in this case understates Tory strength (it gives Con 52.2%, Lab 24.7%, LD 23.0%). Because the joint opposition only ran three candidates between them it is obvious that some anti-Tory voters will have voted for the Labour or Lib Dem candidates as a 'second choice' so overstating the opposition vote when you disaggregate it into two parties. The reality is that the Conservative vote in this ward is more like 68% than 52%. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2024 10:05:03 GMT
Indeed. Slick political adroitness and guile do not feature highly in Starmer's armoury. That initial look and subsequent dismantling of Sunak's typically misplaced glibness seemed pretty sincere to me, and, I suspect, many others watching.Probably all three of them. The clip featured prominently in every news bulletin I caught yesterday. |
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Post by alec on Feb 8, 2024 10:25:10 GMT
steve - Sweden is massively different to the UK, and most other countries. They have by far the lowest average age of leaving home (under 20) and have by some margin the highest number of single occupied homes in the western world. They also did close plenty of schools, they did practice good social distancing, and they did wear masks to quite high levels. The difference was that this was done as a matter of personal choice. They also count their excess deaths differently to everyone else in Europe, which independent estimates say removes 8% - 20% of excess deaths. Given their attributes, Sweden did appallingly. It's also worth noting that recent press coverage in Sweden has been asking how come so many children and workers are sick, and are questioning whether they did get covid right. Danny - "So deaths from other causes dropped during covid?" Got it in one. There were a large number of deaths prevented, primarily through the reduction in other infections, but also in a reduction in suicides (in many countries) and a reduction in accidents. Several studies have since shown that these were deaths prevented, rather than delayed (all deaths prevented are only delayed of course, but in the sense that there was no 'catch up' afterwards'). Against this, some categories increased in some countries (drug deaths in the US look really bad over the pandemic, but new drugs and other factors partly explain this) and some additional deaths have been caused by delayed diagnosis and treatment. So overall, yes, other deaths did fall, but the situation is complex and, as ever, you'll blindly sail on and completely ignore the complex detail and just make stuff up.
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 8, 2024 10:55:25 GMT
The reason why I don't enter into Danny and Alec's interminable debate is because neither actually pay any attention to any of the valid points made by anyone else.
For example if average life expectancy goes up, not down ,at the same rate during a pandemic in a country as before and after the pandemic this does not indicate that a country has " done appallingly " during the pandemic.
It's the sort of basic facts that get ignored not only in this incidence but in so many other cases often with political bias or preconceptions trumping objective data.
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Post by alec on Feb 8, 2024 11:38:22 GMT
steve - "The reason why I don't enter into Danny and Alec's interminable debate is because neither actually pay any attention to any of the valid points made by anyone else." I disagree fundamentally with this. I routinely engage directly with you (and others) although can sometimes miss the odd post. Indeed, what usually happens is that you post something, as you did recently with the US sick leave discussion, which I then point out appears to be erroneous, and then you don't respond. I'd actually say it's you that doesn't pay any attention to responses more often than not. I'm always happy to engage with others, if they are being sensible. On the life expectancy point, Sweden did very badly in 2020 - see www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9488891/ but then bounced back so they had recovered most of this by 2022. They remain so way worse than Norway, but are much better than many other European countries (Denmark, Finland, Belgium and France also do pretty well). The UK does badly, Bulgaria the worst. Sweden though was amongst the best in terms of LE growth pre pandemic, and it's really important to assess performance not against the 2019 figure, but against the prior trend. On this measure, Sweden is not so good. Data here - www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01450-3And once again, Sweden had all the circumstances in it's favour. Their population and social systems put them at a huge advantage, but they blew it. Other Nordic countries, that didn't have quite so many structural advantages, did much better.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2024 11:43:43 GMT
The regime in its continuing war on democracy has decided to create a whole new series of things that can be arrested and imprisoned for. None of these powers were requested by the police service of course. Amongst these arrestable and imprisonable offences will be wearing a mask or other face covering at " specified " demonstrations, carrying a sparkler in public and climbing on a statue of a politician or royal or large statues of cannons. So you're fucked if you are at a parade of clowns with an interest in small pyrotechnics and scaling public memorials, unless it's at a countryside alliance march when it's fine. The changes come in April Walking on the cracks in the pavement and looking at Tories in a funny way will be added in May. Not the nine o clock news was well ahead of it's time 
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2024 11:59:55 GMT
pjw1961“ By popular demand (and to console crossbat11 after last night's debacle) local government by-elections are back” Can you clarify what “last night’s debacle” was PJ? I do hope Batty’s Missis hasn’t left him again - she did tell me that she found him very boring. “Always banging on about something or other.” were her words.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Feb 8, 2024 12:10:41 GMT
pjw1961 “ By popular demand (and to console crossbat11 after last night's debacle) local government by-elections are back” Can you clarify what “last night’s debacle” was PJ? I do hope Batty’s Missis hasn’t left him again - she did tell me that she found him very boring. “Always banging on about something or other.” were her words. Aston Villa's decision to 'concentrate on the league'. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 8, 2024 12:12:53 GMT
By popular demand (and to console crossbat11 after last night's debacle) local government by-elections are back: BLAENAU GWENT UA; Ebbw Vale South (Lab elected as Ind resigned) Candidates: MILLARD, Jonathan David (Independent) POWELL, Jonathan (Green) SMITH, Amy (Labour) 2022: Ind 385 (elected), 320, 260; Lab 354 (elected), 296; Con 97 If the Independent wins would technically be a gain from Labour as the previous Indie swapped sides, but I would regard as an "Ind hold". Or if Labour win then I would see it as "Lab gain" rather than "Lab hold". Depends how you choose to view these things. CHESHIRE EAST UA; Crewe Central (Lab resigned) Candidates: BROWNE, Te Ata (Green) JAMSON, Kim (Labour) MORRIS, Roger James (Conservative) PULMAN, Vicky (Women’s Equality Party) SILVESTER, Brian George (Putting Crewe First) 2023: Lab 448; Con 192; Crewe 1st 126; RefUK 53 Should be a "Labour hold" GWYNEDD UA; Criccieth (Ind died) Candidates: ALLPORT, John (Independent) GENTRY, Bernard (Conservative) JOYCE, Andrew Richard (Liberal Democrat) WILLIAMS, Sian (Plaid Cymru) 2022: Ind 263; PC 231; Lab 62 Independent or PC one presumes, with the former the favorite. WEST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE UA; East Hunsbury & Shelfleys (Con resigned) Candidates: ROBERTSON-MARRIOTT, Clare (Labour) SOAN, Daniel (Conservative) SQUIRES, Carl Neville Mark (Liberal Democrat) 2021: Con 1923, 1878, 1715; Lab 911; LD 848, 792 Should be safe Conservative. By the way, this is one of those cases where it is hard in a multi-member ward to work out the prior vote percentages. The normally favoured method of calculation - taking the top candidate for each party - in this case understates Tory strength (it gives Con 52.2%, Lab 24.7%, LD 23.0%). Because the joint opposition only ran three candidates between them it is obvious that some anti-Tory voters will have voted for the Labour or Lib Dem candidates as a 'second choice' so overstating the opposition vote when you disaggregate it into two parties. The reality is that the Conservative vote in this ward is more like 68% than 52%. Thanks, pj. A Labour hold in Cheshire East tonight would go a long way towards easing my FA Cup heartache. 67 years of hurt and I've almost stopped dreaming now. When will I ever, I wonder, be able to take that photograph of Johnny Dixon raising the famous old FA Cup at Wembley in 1957, down from my bedroom wall? Johnny McGinn to replace it in 2024 I thought. Alas, not to be. Outclassed by a resurgent Chelsea last night. Never a contest. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 8, 2024 12:15:51 GMT
Just got away with a hilarious typo in my last post. Saved by the edit button.
I had originally mistyped that "Villa were outclassed by a resurgent Chelsea lady...".
Might have been less painful if we had been.
Gerrard Hoffnung rides again!
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 8, 2024 12:18:53 GMT
Harry Cole of the Sun saying it will be an October election. Could well be right, what I'm certain of is it won't be a May election www.thesun.co.uk/news/25767566/rishi-sunak-general-election-october-avoid-trump-clash/'RISHI Sunak is “moving away” from holding the election in November with October eyed instead, The Sun can reveal. Concerns over massive global insecurity triggered by the potential return of Donald Trump means going to the country before the US election is now more likely, insiders say.' An October election will wipe out the autumn Party conferences as it would have to be called soon after Parliament returns from its Summer recess. Denying the extra publicity that the opposition Parties get as a result of their conferences is probably the best tactic that Sunak has left. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Feb 8, 2024 12:20:34 GMT
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 8, 2024 12:25:33 GMT
neilj The US has some bizarre age requirements 21 to drink alcohol in most states but you can drive and buy a modified assault rifle at 12. The age for appointment as a senator is a minimum of 30, for the house it's 25.For vice president it's 35 the vice President or failing that the speaker of the house automatically become President if the incumbent is incapable of serving or dies in office so it's theoretically possible to have a 25 year old president but they would be term limited There is of course no upper age limit☺ Taylor Swift will be 35 this December just in time for her inauguration in January as vice president😁 A Travis Kelce/Taylor Swift ticket would sweep the country (Kelce is 35 on October 5th). They've even got enough money to stand, based on Swift's earning. |
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Post by lefthanging on Feb 8, 2024 12:34:03 GMT
Harry Cole of the Sun saying it will be an October election. Could well be right, what I'm certain of is it won't be a May election www.thesun.co.uk/news/25767566/rishi-sunak-general-election-october-avoid-trump-clash/'RISHI Sunak is “moving away” from holding the election in November with October eyed instead, The Sun can reveal. Concerns over massive global insecurity triggered by the potential return of Donald Trump means going to the country before the US election is now more likely, insiders say.' An October election will wipe out the autumn Party conferences as it would have to be called soon after Parliament returns from its Summer recess. Denying the extra publicity that the opposition Parties get as a result of their conferences is probably the best tactic that Sunak has left. Is there anything to stop Labour doing a makeshift conference (or conference-style event) earlier than usual anyway? I know there's normally conference recess in the last week of September and first week of October, but I'd have thought they could cobble together something for one of the weekends in early September instead if they wished. Or indeed at the end of August during Summer recess. I suppose the main issue is that they probably won't have certainty when the election will be until 6 weeks out, at which point it's too late. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 8, 2024 12:41:39 GMT
Hmm. Not so simple I think. I have just been trying to get a technical explanation of what is happening rather than the slogans and I cant find one. The Uk phone netwok began to change to fibre from copper maybe 40 years ago and its not clear to me this is the end of copper. They started on the trunk network where calls were mutiplexed onto fibre cables instead of copper ones. Now they seem to be removing the copper connections from local exchange to roadside. But I cannot find whether they intend to literally make the network copper free by removing the last section from road to house. The problem if they did would be the huge amount of work in replacing telephone wires inside running in lots of strange places. What i have found is a statement your old phone will have to be plugged into a router which is powered off your electricty supply. But many/most already have these (ok will need a new one, but thats just swapping it over), and they operate broadband through copper wires entering the house. VOIP phones just means it uses internet transfer protocols, it doesnt necessarily mean you arent using copper wire connections. The main benefit to Openreach is getting rid of the links to the hundreds of local exchanges, instead they can route the cabinets used for FTTC to regional exchanges. Those who dont take FTTP will still have a copper line to the home but ultimately fed from a cab that is no longer linked to a local exchange, which will allow Openreach to reduce their estate and costs of the maintenance of them. Landlines are an ancient relic, many of them these days only taken because it was a requirement of having broadband. Digital voice will enable them to continue to be provided whilst not incurring a stupidly high overhead for Openreach to maintain. There is one advantage to conventional telephone exchanges: they are in secure buildings. Cabinets at the side of roads are wide open to malicious damage (and I've seen several around my way with their doors open) as well as to accidental damage e.g. being run into by vehicles. |
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Post by bendo on Feb 8, 2024 12:52:13 GMT
It seems Sunak doesn't have a spade with which to keep on digging so has opted for a JCB instead.
Does he not have any advisers?
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 8, 2024 12:56:05 GMT
I'll comment further on the green industrial policy/clean energy (or whatever we are calling it) policy issue after Starmer's speech tomorrow when we get more detail, although there can be no argument that the Labour Party is making a complete shambles of this. However, one thing that is annoying me tonight is the attempts from the right of the party to blame the mess on Ed Miliband. It was Rachel Reeves who announced the 28bn figure, not Miliband. Yes. The problem is that figure was announced years ago (2021, I think) and events have changed the amount of money available. I'm old enough to remember the Tories' "Labour's Tax Bombshell" campaign which did a great deal of damage to Kinnock, so won't criticise Labour for being more circumspect this time around. The best line now is to say "These are the Green policies that we will prioritize and we will fund those that are affordable within the budget constraints that the OBR assess are appropriate". |
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 8, 2024 13:01:21 GMT
pjw1961 “ By popular demand (and to console crossbat11 after last night's debacle) local government by-elections are back” Can you clarify what “last night’s debacle” was PJ? I do hope Batty’s Missis hasn’t left him again - she did tell me that she found him very boring. “Always banging on about something or other.” were her words. Aston Villa's decision to 'concentrate on the league'. But do you mean the Premier League, or the Europa Conference League (Villa's last chance at silverware this season)? |
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 8, 2024 13:10:38 GMT
An October election will wipe out the autumn Party conferences as it would have to be called soon after Parliament returns from its Summer recess. Denying the extra publicity that the opposition Parties get as a result of their conferences is probably the best tactic that Sunak has left. Is there anything to stop Labour doing a makeshift conference (or conference-style event) earlier than usual anyway? I know there's normally conference recess in the last week of September and first week of October, but I'd have thought they could cobble together something for one of the weekends in early September instead if they wished. Or indeed at the end of August during Summer recess. I suppose the main issue is that they probably won't have certainty when the election will be until 6 weeks out, at which point it's too late. Usually when an election is called, parties have their communications strategy for every day of the campaign mapped out. You are probably looking at the launch of the manifesto for the nearest to what you describe. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2024 13:14:12 GMT
It seems Sunak doesn't have a spade with which to keep on digging so has opted for a JCB instead. Does he not have any advisers? Batty and me have been sending him advice. Slightly surprised that he’s been taking it though. |
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Post by alec on Feb 8, 2024 13:15:55 GMT
Well if 'Royal Expert' Tom Bower is right, we can expect to lose another monarch soon -
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Feb 8, 2024 14:05:52 GMT
I'll comment further on the green industrial policy/clean energy (or whatever we are calling it) policy issue after Starmer's speech tomorrow when we get more detail, although there can be no argument that the Labour Party is making a complete shambles of this. However, one thing that is annoying me tonight is the attempts from the right of the party to blame the mess on Ed Miliband. It was Rachel Reeves who announced the 28bn figure, not Miliband. Yes. The problem is that figure was announced years ago (2021, I think) and events have changed the amount of money available. I'm old enough to remember the Tories' "Labour's Tax Bombshell" campaign which did a great deal of damage to Kinnock, so won't criticise Labour for being more circumspect this time around. The best line now is to say "These are the Green policies that we will prioritize and we will fund those that are affordable within the budget constraints that the OBR assess are appropriate". If the leaks are correct it is looking like the £28bn is going to become £13bn (the £8bn that is in existing government plans plus £5bn new) and home insulation will be sacrificed. The latter is a bad decision IMO. |
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Post by graham on Feb 8, 2024 14:07:17 GMT
An October election will wipe out the autumn Party conferences as it would have to be called soon after Parliament returns from its Summer recess. Denying the extra publicity that the opposition Parties get as a result of their conferences is probably the best tactic that Sunak has left. Is there anything to stop Labour doing a makeshift conference (or conference-style event) earlier than usual anyway? I know there's normally conference recess in the last week of September and first week of October, but I'd have thought they could cobble together something for one of the weekends in early September instead if they wished. Or indeed at the end of August during Summer recess. I suppose the main issue is that they probably won't have certainty when the election will be until 6 weeks out, at which point it's too late. In 1959, 1964 and 1974 Labour held late conferences several weeks after the elections. In 1951 the party continued with its conference and used it to launch its campaign.The date chosen in October might be crucial here. As of now the conference is scheduled for 22nd - 25th September - so an election date of 24th October might allow it to continue. Were Sunak to opt for 17th October , that is rather less likely. Personally I doubt that he will wish to see Labour having a conference when his own party is denied the same! |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 8, 2024 14:19:45 GMT
It seems Sunak doesn't have a spade with which to keep on digging so has opted for a JCB instead. Does he not have any advisers? One particular aspect of Sunak's faux pas at PMQs yesterday that struck me, and apologies if it has been mentioned before (I haven't read back over the many opinions already offered on the subject) was not just its crassness but the insensitivity to the unique features of yesterday's events in Parliament. Esther Ghey wasn't some random representative of, or spokesperson for, transgender rights, she was the mother of a young girl murdered for being a transgender person. That was the self-declared prime motivation for the murderers. A jibe at the expense of transgenderism is pretty stupid anyway, but is often seen as fair game in politics these days, but yesterday of all days? Sunak had a whole list of other anti-Starmer jibes written for him so what possessed either him or his scriptwriters to include the one that related to Starmer's comments about transgender issues? When he/they knew Esther Ghey was in the building and why she was there. The fact that Sunak and his aides have subsequently doubled down on it suggests that Sunak's general naffness and awkwardness, slightly comical at times, might well have darker edges. An insensitivity and spite lurking behind the perma-grin. I invited some criticism recently on here for defending his ludicrous phoney bet with Morgan, thinking I was seeing stupidity rather than anything more sinister, but yesterday made me think that we might be dealing with something different here now. |
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Post by jayblanc on Feb 8, 2024 14:35:43 GMT
Yes. The problem is that figure was announced years ago (2021, I think) and events have changed the amount of money available. I'm old enough to remember the Tories' "Labour's Tax Bombshell" campaign which did a great deal of damage to Kinnock, so won't criticise Labour for being more circumspect this time around. The best line now is to say "These are the Green policies that we will prioritize and we will fund those that are affordable within the budget constraints that the OBR assess are appropriate". If the leaks are correct it is looking like the £28bn is going to become £13bn (the £8bn that is in existing government plans plus £5bn new) and home insulation will be sacrificed. The latter is a bad decision IMO. A gentle reminder, that the original costing figure announced by Labour was £13bn. The £28bn figure is one that was announced by the current Government as "what it would really cost". Labour have not backtracked on their plans, they still want to do what they said they would do, and they still think it would be costed at £13bn. The Conservatives are just being allowed by a certain large broadcaster to re-write costs so they can claim Labour are backtracking. This is of course, not entirely impartial reporting. But the chances of any complaint being sustained against this large broadcaster with it's current management are slim to none. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Feb 8, 2024 15:06:20 GMT
An October election will wipe out the autumn Party conferences as it would have to be called soon after Parliament returns from its Summer recess. Denying the extra publicity that the opposition Parties get as a result of their conferences is probably the best tactic that Sunak has left. Is there anything to stop Labour doing a makeshift conference (or conference-style event) earlier than usual anyway? I know there's normally conference recess in the last week of September and first week of October, but I'd have thought they could cobble together something for one of the weekends in early September instead if they wished. Or indeed at the end of August during Summer recess. I suppose the main issue is that they probably won't have certainty when the election will be until 6 weeks out, at which point it's too late. It would be brilliant if Labour brought forward their conference to make sure it could occur before any potential GE campaign. If an October GE is a ploy to ensure the conferences don't happen it would shoot Sunak's very last fox. As long as it's not in Sheffield. |
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