oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Feb 7, 2024 22:36:34 GMT
The key is to watch the film of it and look at Starmer's expression when he is sat on the front bench about to rise and answer Sunak. He has a look of disgust at what he's just heard that can only be a genuine reaction given he had no knowledge of what Sunak would say. I get the impression that Starmer and Sunak genuinely don't like each other much, which is not always the case with front-benchers of opposite parties. As someone who has been, and still is, critical of Starmer, i think he's fundamentally a decent & honest person finding himself having to work within the bounds of current politics, who is trying to put an end to the the most dishonest and corrupt government we have known in modern times.
I opposed those Tories at the time, and see no reason to support another now - except to see off the corruption at the heart of the UK. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Feb 7, 2024 22:53:26 GMT
Excluding DKs, 60% of Scots think that the Covid pandemic was better handled by ScotGov than UKGov.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Feb 7, 2024 22:59:08 GMT
I'll comment further on the green industrial policy/clean energy (or whatever we are calling it) policy issue after Starmer's speech tomorrow when we get more detail, although there can be no argument that the Labour Party is making a complete shambles of this. However, one thing that is annoying me tonight is the attempts from the right of the party to blame the mess on Ed Miliband. It was Rachel Reeves who announced the 28bn figure, not Miliband.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2024 23:31:21 GMT
The key is to watch the film of it and look at Starmer's expression when he is sat on the front bench about to rise and answer Sunak. He has a look of disgust at what he's just heard that can only be a genuine reaction given he had no knowledge of what Sunak would say. Indeed. Slick political adroitness and guile do not feature highly in Starmer's armoury. That initial look and subsequent dismantling of Sunak's typically misplaced glibness seemed pretty sincere to me, and, I suspect, many others watching. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 7, 2024 23:34:42 GMT
oldnat Both England and Scotland had very similar increases in age adjusted death rates over the entire covid period , there's no real objective justification in preferences of one over the other. Interestingly both Norway and Sweden ( who had no national lock down) saw age adjusted death rates fall over the pandemic compared to 2015-19. I appreciate that there seems to be a objection to the fact that Sweden's no lock down policy was objectively effective but the data is there. Here's the link to the ons graph. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67981188
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2024 0:00:22 GMT
I'll comment further on the green industrial policy/clean energy (or whatever we are calling it) policy issue after Starmer's speech tomorrow when we get more detail, although there can be no argument that the Labour Party is making a complete shambles of this. However, one thing that is annoying me tonight is the attempts from the right of the party to blame the mess on Ed Miliband. It was Rachel Reeves who announced the 28bn figure, not Miliband. The £28 bn figure, (not the policy), has become a millstone around LAB's neck. It's the one figure CON have been able to trot out ad nauseam as an effortless stick to beat them with. By ditching reference to the figure, (if that's what happens), they will have shot the Tories' fox. This was possibly the only CON attack line which could potentially achieve real traction in an election campaign. I'm sure some senior LAB figures will have faces like a bulldog chewing a wasp if the price tag is formally ditched, so I imagine there will be much talk of how they will seek to practically implement their green agenda by way of home insulation, clean energy and the like whilst not having constantly to defend a fairly arbitrary price tag. In the short term, I'm sure there'll be plenty of incoming, but as a way of neutralising their opponents' main attack line in the run-up to the election, it might well be effective. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Feb 8, 2024 0:51:35 GMT
oldnat Both England and Scotland had very similar increases in age adjusted death rates over the entire covid period , there's no real objective justification in preferences of one over the other. Interestingly both Norway and Sweden ( who had no national lock down) saw age adjusted death rates fall over the pandemic compared to 2015-19. I appreciate that there seems to be a objection to the fact that Sweden's no lock down policy was objectively effective but the data is there. Here's the link to the ons graph. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67981188
In the UK ( March 2020 - Feb 2022) -
England 145 deaths per 100k of population
Wales 144.6 deaths per 100k of population
NI 130.7 deaths per 100k of population
Scotland 124.9 deaths per 100k of population
I doubt that most Scots would have accessed these figures, so the poll that I linked to would not be based on them. However, an Age Standardised Mortality Rate, 9% less than in the polity where UKGov made the decisions, would tend to suggest that their overall judgement was a reasonable one. |
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Post by mercian on Feb 8, 2024 1:02:09 GMT
The key is to watch the film of it and look at Starmer's expression when he is sat on the front bench about to rise and answer Sunak. He has a look of disgust at what he's just heard that can only be a genuine reaction given he had no knowledge of what Sunak would say. Indeed. Slick political adroitness and guile do not feature highly in Starmer's armoury. That initial look and subsequent dismantling of Sunak's typically misplaced glibness seemed pretty sincere to me, and, I suspect, many others watching.Probably all three of them. |
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Post by jayblanc on Feb 8, 2024 1:54:44 GMT
I note that the BBC News website has decided to go into tomorrow with the "£28 bn" story from CCHQ, and relegated Cameron's conduct to the far-scroll-down "Also in news" section. Also, helpfully eliding that the figure quoted came from the Government, not Labour, in an inflated "estimate" of the cost of the plans. (https://www.itv.com/news/2024-02-07/hunt-admits-treasurys-costing-of-labour-energy-efficiency-plans-may-be-wrong)
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 8, 2024 6:16:22 GMT
Starmer’s approval rating isn't great in Scotland, but it's significantly better than Yousaf's
Redfield Wilton
Humza Yousaf's approval rating is -17%, his joint-lowest ever approval rating in our Scottish polling.
Humza Yousaf Approval Rating in Scotland (3-4 February):
Disapprove: 42% (+5)
Approve: 25% (-6)
Net: -17% (-11)
Keir Starmer's approval rating in Scotland is +3%.
Keir Starmer Approval Rating in Scotland (3-4 February):
Approve: 34% (-3)
Disapprove: 31% (+5)
Net: +3% (-8)
But both are a lot better than Sunak's
Rishi Sunak's approval rating in Scotland is -34%, his lowest ever rating in our Scottish polling.
Rishi Sunak Approval Rating in Scotland (3-4 February):
Disapprove: 56% (+6)
Approve: 22% (-4)
Net: -34% (-10)
Changes +/- 9-11 January
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 8, 2024 6:41:55 GMT
mark61Possibly but when I see Starmer I think of Groucho Marx's line: "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others." Pales into insignificance compared to the conservative party which took us into the EU, which under Thatcher moulded it to suit our needs, which has always believed we should be inside the EU ....led the campaign to leave so as to get into office. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 8, 2024 7:11:42 GMT
The regime in its continuing war on democracy has decided to create a whole new series of things that can be arrested and imprisoned for.
None of these powers were requested by the police service of course.
Amongst these arrestable and imprisonable offences will be wearing a mask or other face covering at " specified " demonstrations, carrying a sparkler in public and climbing on a statue of a politician or royal or large statues of cannons.
So you're fucked if you are at a parade of clowns with an interest in small pyrotechnics and scaling public memorials, unless it's at a countryside alliance march when it's fine.
The changes come in April
Walking on the cracks in the pavement and looking at Tories in a funny way will be added in May.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 8, 2024 7:21:18 GMT
I'm inclined to cut Sunak some slack on this. I've watched the exchange with Morgan and while Sunak's response was typically awkward and maladroit, he was railroaded into the handshake and probably wasn't fully aware that he was taking part in Morgan's bet. Good job he wasnt talking to Putin then and accidentally handed over Ukraine. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Feb 8, 2024 7:27:58 GMT
Didn't your party almost come to be led by a Christian fundamentalist? Seem to be plenty of 'principles' knocking around in there one of which appears to be nothing matters, not hospitals, not schools, only being able to draw a national border between Scotland and England. I understand it must be galling, the window of opportunity for independence that opened after 2016 appears to have closed down, probably for a long time and Starmer may have played some very small part in that but mainly it's your own party's lack of probity, lack of delivery, entitlement etc. Oh dear. You sometimes post some thoughtful ideas on English and European dompolitics but you really cannot abide any suggestion that Scotland should mot be part of the UK. You should probably inform yourself about the comparative state of public services in Scotland and England. You should also look at opinion polls which show support for independence steady at about 50% of the electorate and much higher in younger age groups.And Forbes didn't become SNP leader but Badenoch is frontrunner to lead one of your leading British parties. Not at all, I am no kind of Brit nat and have no problem with Scottish independence whatsoever. In fact post brexit especially I was positively in favour of you saving yourselves. I think England needs the kick up the arse that Scotland leaving would give it to completely reassess it's reality. On the other hand I'm now desperate for a Labour majority and a few Scottish MPs would be pragmatically helpful in that direction and the SNP, having apparently abandoned good governance appear only too willing to give them that opportunity. It's not Scottish independence that I object to it's the desperate, endless attacks on Starmer |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 8, 2024 7:33:36 GMT
In the UK ( March 2020 - Feb 2022) - England 145 deaths per 100k of population Wales 144.6 deaths per 100k of population NI 130.7 deaths per 100k of population Scotland 124.9 deaths per 100k of population ...Age Standardised Mortality Rate, 9% less than in the polity where UKGov made the decisions, would tend to suggest that their overall judgement was a reasonable one. [/font][/quote]except that mortality rate was dependant on the proportion of older people catching covid, because its the old that died. scotland has a surplus of older people I believe because of the effect of youngsters moving to England but then retiring back to Scotland. This ought to have made their outcomes worse. On the other hand, there is a way lower population density which would slow spread. Thats difficult to quantify because it depends more on the proportions living in cities than the overall average, but its hard to see but that scotland would score lower than England, and therefore expect fewer deaths. 9% isnt very much compared to likely random factors. Sweden scored about 3/4 of UK deaths by not having a lockdown. |
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Post by alec on Feb 8, 2024 7:36:32 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 8, 2024 7:43:41 GMT
I think those interested in covid might have missed the data that showed both Norway, which engaged in Lockdown and Sweden which didn't not only had lower age related excess deaths during the pandemic than any country in the British isles or much of the rest of Europe but also had lower age related deaths than before the pandemic.
I found this surprising as while thousands there did of course die with or from covid older people were actually dying less frequently than in the five years before the pandemic started.
The current life expectancy for Sweden in 2024 is 83.47 years, a 0.17% increase from 2023. The life expectancy for Sweden in 2023 was 83.33 years, a 0.18% increase from 2022. The life expectancy for Sweden in 2022 was 83.18 years, a 0.18% increase from 2021.
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 8, 2024 8:31:07 GMT
"More evidence suggesting that covid deaths have been substantially undercounted - www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/covid-19-behind-thousands-excess-us-deaths-analysis-shows" Given that the report you quoted identifies that it runs contrary to other studies, who identified increased non covid deaths as attributable to such element's as lack of access to medical care during covid and poor mental health, I think, again, you are trying to find the evidence that agrees with your conclusion. You may be right but denying scientific research that reached a different conclusion isn't proof,it's dogma. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 8, 2024 8:31:32 GMT
More evidence suggesting that covid deaths have been substantially undercounted - So deaths from other causes dropped during covid? (unless they just discovered a huge stash of bodies hidden in basements?) |
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 8, 2024 8:33:07 GMT
That's my bi monthly trip to covidtown done I'll not be adding more🎆
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,614
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Post by pjw1961 on Feb 8, 2024 8:36:21 GMT
I'll comment further on the green industrial policy/clean energy (or whatever we are calling it) policy issue after Starmer's speech tomorrow when we get more detail, although there can be no argument that the Labour Party is making a complete shambles of this. However, one thing that is annoying me tonight is the attempts from the right of the party to blame the mess on Ed Miliband. It was Rachel Reeves who announced the 28bn figure, not Miliband. The £28 bn figure, (not the policy), has become a millstone around LAB's neck. It's the one figure CON have been able to trot out ad nauseam as an effortless stick to beat them with. By ditching reference to the figure, (if that's what happens), they will have shot the Tories' fox. This was possibly the only CON attack line which could potentially achieve real traction in an election campaign. I'm sure some senior LAB figures will have faces like a bulldog chewing a wasp if the price tag is formally ditched, so I imagine there will be much talk of how they will seek to practically implement their green agenda by way of home insulation, clean energy and the like whilst not having constantly to defend a fairly arbitrary price tag. In the short term, I'm sure there'll be plenty of incoming, but as a way of neutralising their opponents' main attack line in the run-up to the election, it might well be effective. I agree that the £28bn figure was an albatross and had to go, the main error being announcing it in that way in the first place. However, the way this has been handled makes the Labour leadership look weak and indecisive, because to be honest it has been weak and indecisive on this. Nor is the Tory fox actually shot, because every Labour manifesto I can remember is always "fully costed" and "independently audited" so keeping the perfectly sensible green policies still means attaching a cost to them. Tory manifestos are, of course, never costed or audited but also never challenged, despite frequently being total bollocks. That is the unfair media landscape in which politics operates in the UK, but there is no point moaning about it because it is not going to change. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 8, 2024 8:37:21 GMT
I think those interested in covid might have missed the data that showed both Norway, which engaged in Lockdown and Sweden which didn't not only had lower age related excess deaths during the pandemic than any country in the British isles or much of the rest of Europe but also had lower age related deaths than before the pandemic. I found this surprising as while thousands there did of course die with or from covid older people were actually dying less frequently than in the five years before the pandemic started. The current life expectancy for Sweden in 2024 is 83.47 years, a 0.17% increase from 2023. The life expectancy for Sweden in 2023 was 83.33 years, a 0.18% increase from 2022. The life expectancy for Sweden in 2022 was 83.18 years, a 0.18% increase from 2021. The key to reducing covid deaths was always to prevent older people catching it at all. One way to do that was to allow younger people to catch it as fast as possible, because then a wave dies out. What we did protected the young more than the old, so would reasonably be expected to have increased the death rate for that reason. The throery government was acting on was if you could suppress it completely, then no one would catch it and no one die. The trouble is, this just didnt work. They were never able to eradicate it, so as i said what they did do was to push more cases amongst the old. That this would happen is generally acknowledged, it was suppression which was the magic bullet and it didnt work. The irony is that in the short term pensioners are much more able to isolate than working people, but if you deliberate keep it dragging on then they are forced to be out and about while the disease is still widespread. This of course doesnt deal with the problem of hospitals, where covid was always out of control spreading amongst patients. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 8, 2024 8:45:39 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 8, 2024 8:53:41 GMT
Seems a bit of an irony that con are trying to attack labours policy on decarbonisation when last time labour were in power it was marching ahead, but once con took power they cancelled labours schemes and essentially banned the most obvious way of generating power, land based wind turbines. And did nothing to expedite expansions of the power transmission netweork so we can even use renewables power being generated in different places to traditional power stations. Nor done anything to expand and integrate the electric vehicle charging network, the lack of which is now causing takeup of electric vehicles to stall. and done nothing whatever about energy storage, which has to be part of a strategy of relying on intermittent renewables.
News says wind power company sacking employees. Presumably because the latest round of licenses to build more found no takers because government refused to allow them enough margin. Theres a problem here that as more nations are belatedly choosing to switch to wind, demand for equipment is outstripping supply. Con refusing to push this for the last 14 years missed a big opportunity to have made the Uk a lot more competitive on energy production and less subject to the recent energy price hikes.
So all in all, blaming labour for an inadequate greening policy is absurd, con are already reaping what they sowed in not doing this themselves.
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Feb 8, 2024 8:55:05 GMT
Ipsos Scotland Scottish Westminster Voting Intention: SNP: 39% (-1) LAB: 32% (+2) CON: 14% (-1) LDM: 6% (=) GRN: 4% (+1) Via @ipsosscotland , 25-31 Jan. Changes w/ 20-26 Nov. Tories under 20!!!!!!!!!!!!! - I knew you'd come up trumps Neil  (Yes, I know it's Scotland. I'm just being a twit). |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Feb 8, 2024 9:00:59 GMT
The reality is that the old copper lines are dated and FTTP is a huge step forward ... I'm in favour of PR. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Feb 8, 2024 9:05:50 GMT
The reality is that the old copper lines are dated and FTTP is a huge step forward ... I'm in favour of PR. "Old copper lines are dated" - I don't know, I quite enjoy steve's posts. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 8, 2024 9:08:31 GMT
You hesitate to raise this, but yet you did. As i alluded, first off the average population density isnt very helpful, what we really need to compare is the average contact rate between people, which might approximate to how many live in big cities. And on that score many nominally low density countries still have most of the people living in high density conditions. Its not so easy to get figures measuring this. The other problem is the extent to which countries managed to prevent covid entering. Hastings had covid winter 2019, it was a lost cause in the UK before government even started trying to keep it out. If you managed to skip waves, then obviously it would keep your case rate down. There was evidence of early arrival in sweden. Havnt seen any as early as Hastings, but certainly before they managed to get any border control in place. And then we have the unquantified problem of the degree of pre existing immunity in your country due to past corona virus infections. It seems likely this was high in the pacific region and is how certain countries succeeded in suppressing covid. China had a tiny death rate, so did Japan. The contrast between them could not be bigger in that China engaged in mass lockdowns, Japan did hardly anything (at least until it chose to hold the olympics during the epidemic. and even then there was no indication of spread. Cases have picked up more recently in Japan, which again supports the idea they had immunity at outset which is less effective against the mutated variants) |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Feb 8, 2024 9:13:19 GMT
Or more probably just a shameless political opportunist. Pathetic. Basically you are aligning yourself with Badenoch. .... whilst also showing political opportunism themself. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 8, 2024 9:26:54 GMT
neiljJust briefly breaking my own rule, the data I saw on worldometer didn't show this disparity between Sweden and Norway, Norway was lower by around 40% but both were lower than the uk, it's also arguable that Sweden with two large cities and a lot of empty space isn't that different to Scotland, Wales or Ireland. But my point wasn't really that people obviously died from covid but that overall it had no impact at all on life expectancy, which rose in Sweden during covid, which surprised me. But onto more interesting matters. Nice example this morning of " Richsplaining" In this incident Nick Ferrari, who is paid around £80,000 a MONTH at LBC was explaining how the increase in shoplifting has nothing to do with poverty.
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