neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 24, 2024 7:25:20 GMT
eor - yes, the Iowa weather could have played a role. New Hampshire turnout looks just a little down on 2016. Much closer result than some predicted though. Yes it's interesting in the polls leading up to the Primary Trump had around a 20% lead on average. It looks like he won by just 11%. Coupled with the poor turn out in Ohio (I appreciate the weather played a part) makes me suspect the support for Trump amongst Republicans is not as rock solid as some think Yes he will win the Republican nomination, but the big question is how many Republican moderates will hold their noses and vote for him or decide to abstain Equally how many Democrats and undecided will be riled upto vote for Biden to stop Trump
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 24, 2024 7:32:09 GMT
People who voted for Boris Johnson are probably quite happy to blur those lines though. Thankfully Johnson's corruption became too visible and not even our resident 'populist' forumites found It tenable to hide behind him anymore. I think you are unfair on Johnson. He became PM for two reasons, one his affable personality when talking to voters, and two the fact he had become leader of the leave campaign (which was also because of point one). In part he became PM BECAUSE of his ability to present credibly the most incredible facts and policies.
Corruption tends to imply more blatant lawbreaking, whereas he has always been the same Boris Johnson who got fired as a journalist for simply making up stories. That trait was how he got chosen for the job of PM. His final downfall came to centre around parties at Downing street during covid, which ironically seem to have been because he believed, based on the evidence the medical experts were presenting, there wasnt much point to following the regulations. The reason he had to go rather than defending his actions, was that the consequences for the party of publicly stating lockdown had become pointless would have been too great. The whole government had publicly supported those policies, even though probably most of them knew they were pointless, but politically could not admit it. Once you make an epic political mistake on that scale, its never possible to admit the mistake. So he had to become scapegoat, which however was always his intended fate.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 24, 2024 7:38:23 GMT
"Trouble is...you never say what those twelve errors are!" Oh Danny - I've spent four years trying to get you to learn something, but you resolutely refuse to take off your blinkers and actually read the evidence. You can take a horse to water and all that. It's up to you whether you want to grow up or not - no one else can do it for you. My dear, you love the same tactic as the press, where they publish a story on page 1 but after a long legal battle publish a retraction at the bottom of page 25 six months later. You are unable to present a list of my 12 mistakes and defend them in debate. Its not a million miles away from the government sacking judges and court staff so that accused never get to trial but get locked up on remand indefinitely instead, or how they have refused to force the PO to publish its evidence about the accused postmasters and thereby end the scandal of how they have been treated.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 24, 2024 7:41:47 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter You make these absolutist statements about the liberal democrats time in the coalition which simply aren't true. She apologised, during the election campaign, specifically for the bedroom tax but not austerity in general or the LDs participation in the coalition. That does not mean that the LDs are free from any criticism/responsibility for austerity. I'm not being 'absolutist', if you are part of a government you are responsible for what it does. If any LD member of the cabinet/gvt had felt strongly enough on an issue they could have resigned. Its the same for any party.@johnchannin, well there is a fundamental difference in being a part of the government implementing it and the opposition. Labour's weak opposition/criticism to austerity was the key factor in Corbyn becoming leader. domjg, You compare the two as if we can condemn one or the other. That's a big distortion of what I said - I just said I thought one was more more damaging than the other, and previously that some would have been impacted more by one than the other. I put no restriction on condemnation.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 24, 2024 7:44:48 GMT
well there is a fundamental difference in being a part of the government implementing it and the opposition. Labour's weak opposition/criticism to austerity was the key factor in Corbyn becoming leader. [/font]Do you mean that had the labour leadership acted more like Corbyn, then Corbyn would never have become leader himself?
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 24, 2024 7:46:22 GMT
Henry Mance of the Financial Times made me laugh today
"The Conservative party will suffer an electoral massacre if it doesn't deliver what the voters want.
Unfortunately what the voters want is for the Conservatives to suffer an electoral massacre"
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Jan 24, 2024 7:49:22 GMT
Thanks to neilj for the analysis of Con2019 voters per YouGov above. But the pattern of their losses continues to go unnoticed in the media, and here there is something really remarkable going on. I have posted numerous times on 'proportional swing' and in particular how the Tories are losing more support in their stronger demographics. But it's actually worse than that: per YouGov, they are losing an above-average proportion of their voters in their stong regions, and retaining more of their small level of support wherever they were weak. These are the average Vote-retention proportions per the average of the past 6 published YouGov polls (7th Dec onwards): 1 Remain Voters 12/19% = 63% retention 2 London 18/32% = 56% retention 3 Scotland 14/25% = 56% retention 4 Wales 19/36% = 54% retention 5 North of England 20.5/39% = 53% retention 6 Leave Voters 38/74% = 51% retention 7 C2DE Social class 24/48% = 50% retention 8 ABC1 Social Class 21/43% = 49% retention 9 Midlands 27/55% = 47% retention 10 South of England 26.5/55% = 45% retention The overall average Con VI is around 22-23% now with YouGov compared to 44.7% at GE2019, so the norm with a proportional swing would be 50% retention across the board. But of course most models of how seats might change hands are based on the the simple 'Uniform national Swing' under which each party gains or loses by the same amount in each seat. This produces a pattern where the proportion of votes lost (or gained) can vary hugely dependent on the level of support at the previous election. So for a comparison to the table of losses above, this is how Uniform National Swing would predict the Conservatives' vote share, per the same groups: 1 Leave Voters 52/74% = 70% retention 2 South of England 33/55% = 60% retention 3 Midlands 33/55% = 60% retention 4 C2DE Social Class 26/48% = 54% retention 5 ABC1 Social Class 21/43% = 49% retention 6 North of England 17/39% = 44% retention 7 Wales 14/36% = 39% retention 8 London 10/32% = 31% retention 9 Scotland 3/25% = 12% retention 10 Remain Voters 0*/19% = 0% retention *UNS currently puts the Conservatives on a -3% vote-share with this group. The two tables are not quite in reverse order, but getting close to that. For the ABC1 and C2DE groups, YG recorded the Conservative vote in 2019 as close to their 44.7% overall share for each, so the fact that these come out in the middle is entirely what we should expect. This really is unprecedented: even in the 1997 General Election, the detailed results ended up close to the mid-point between a uniform and proportional swing, so that while the Tories lost a higher number of votes in their safer areas, they still held a higher proportion of their 1992 vote in the same areas and groups. The difference between the two tables above explains the huge divergence between UNS and MRP/ proportional models. And any narrative that claims that 'Labour need a record breaking 12.7% swing for an overall majority' is based on the same assumptions behind the second table above, rather than the detailed findings of the first. A superb piece of work by you James, if you don’t mind me saying. Thank you.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 24, 2024 7:54:28 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter That's not accurate In 2019 as party leader she apologised again in an interview with Andrew Nril for welfare cuts the party backed when it was in power with the Tories. Ms Swinson, who was a junior minister in the coalition government, said cuts had gone too far. “Clearly not enough was raised from taxation. “Some cuts were necessary( well we can disagree on that !) , but the shape of those cuts and certainly the balance between cuts and tax rises, I don’t think was the right balance.” But frankly there are very few votes to be gained by continuing to apologise for past mistakes.Given that most of Those now apologising wouldn't have made the mistakes in the first place. Those most vociferous in their demands for them have no intention of voting liberal democrat any way, at the extreme with people like Jib they'd prefer to see a Tory remain in office in a seat the Lib dems could win because of the coalition with the Tories! It's daft , the parties moved on, that's why I joined.
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Post by jib on Jan 24, 2024 8:02:52 GMT
Someone is ignoring the elephant. Labour were complicit in austerity (see various statements by Balls), and unwilling to defend Labour's record in government in the late 2000s I don't even get your point here. Are you implying that the Labour party would have indulged in the dismantling of the UKs public sector with the sheer glee and determination as the 2010 coalition? The Lib Dems remain deeply, deeply stained by the austerity they delivered (and most voters still suffer from).
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 24, 2024 8:06:13 GMT
Hi domjg . Well the LDs stick by their record in the coalition and make no apology for it. So it's perfectly reasonable for voters who were impacted by austerity to continue to hold the LD's accountable for their role in it. It wasn't that long ago.
Now tactically I think its of little value, and probably counterproductive, for Labour to directly attack the LD's atm, but as soon as Labour is in power and subject to attack from the LD's, it would equally be folly for them not to attack the LDs on this issue.
Personally I think austerity was more damaging to this country than Brexit, with the former playing a major role in why the latter occurred. Someone is ignoring the elephant. Labour were complicit in austerity (see various statements by Balls), and unwilling to defend Labour's record in government in the late 2000s Someone is indeed ignoring the elephant - your good self. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats were in government in Westminster and own those policies. Labour was not.
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Jan 24, 2024 8:13:21 GMT
The party had been "too nice", she said, and had agreed to compromises in its power-sharing agreement with David Cameron that "sucked". Did she really say that? That they were "too nice"? Jesus wept. I suppose she couldn't admit the truth: That Clegg, Alexander, Laws and yes, that progressive-man-of-the-left-and-most-definitely-not-yet-another-2010-Liberal-opportunist, Ed Davey, willingly and with apparent glee, whole-heartedly jumped into bed with the Tories and them the numbers, without which Cameron, Osborne and co would not have been able to enact austerity to the society-damaging degree that we saw. This kind of line from Swinson seems to seek to portray the 2010-2015 Liberals as poor little naive babes-in-the-wood, used unspeakablyby the evil, more urbane Tories. Their only fault was that they were just "too nice". Who did she think she was kidding? Presumably, it was a line designed to make her party feel not so complicit in the damage it facilitated. She never was much of a politician though, but if her 'defence' was to portray her party as easily duped, naive and stupid then who am I to tell her to stop.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 24, 2024 8:18:38 GMT
New Hampshire has been called by the networks; Trump will win the Republican primary, and Biden will win the Democratic primary in a landslide (despite not even being on the ballot!) For a call this early on the Republican side, despite potentially record turnout overall and record participation of independents, it suggests the margin is unlikely to be close enough to give Haley a chance of continuing in the race.So from here it seems there are only two obstacles to a Biden v Trump general election in November, the Supreme Court and the Grim Reaper. Who have very similar dress-sense, come to think about it. I have never doubted that Trump will be the nominee, but I assume Haley will stay in until South Carolina, which is next, as she was governor there. When Trump wins that she will withdraw.
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shevii
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Post by shevii on Jan 24, 2024 8:18:54 GMT
Reich does indeed concentrate on the Republican primaries rather than the putative Trump v Biden presidential race opinion polls but I think he makes the very fair point that, and these are his exact words "when Americans actually focus on the presidential election and the stark reality of choosing between Biden and Trump, I expect they will once again choose Biden." We are still 10 months away from a contest that may not even take place. Putative scarcely does justice to the if buts and maybes strewn along the road to a Trump v Biden race becoming a reality. Accordingly, like Reich, I'm in the very sceptical school (VSS) that doubts how reliable a guide current opinion polls are now to anything very much. You have to factor in Biden's current poor approval ratings that may (will, I think) improve markedly if and when the stark choice between him and Trump dawns on voters. I think we are then in different political territory altogether. I think Reich is right to be wary of overplaying the prospect of Trump returning to the White House and to pour some cold water on the self perpetuating hysteria that surrounds his political persona. I noticed your "smiley thing" when talking about the relevance of local elections to the national picture which I presume, considering you rather bizarrely name-checked mercian along the way, must be some deeply ironic reference to my regular refrain about the dangers of attaching too much weight to regional and local election results. My smiley thing rejoinder would be that I think mid-term Congressional and governorship elections in the US may be better harbingers of national electoral performance than UK local council by-elections might be to general elections here! Therefore, I do think Reich is right to point to Trumpian candidates particularly underperforming in a number of those regional elections, and the Republican party as a whole suffering the same lukewarm fate too. But of course, stating the bleedin' obvious, a Trump victory cannot be entirely ruled out and a degree of nervousness about that won't go away until he's locked up, withdraws or is beaten. My money is still on him going to jail. My money wouldn't be on him going to jail although clearly he should for multiple reasons. I think your post would be the central assumption on the 2024 presidential though and I'm not disagreeing with you. I just feel, again, that if Trump is still in the running after everything that's gone on it would be unwise to write him off or make assumptions. Also while all the focus is on Trump, it's worth remembering that Biden is (literally) looking a bit wobbly. It's quite a difficult issue to comment on given that would be a dog whistle line the Republicans are already employing and likely to amplify beyond reason but he's had a couple of slips/falls that go beyond a Kinnock Brighton beach accident and he has made a few incomprehensible lines in speeches. How sure can we be that something won't happen on the campaign trail and the reaction of the American undecided voter to a Biden moment?
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shevii
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Post by shevii on Jan 24, 2024 8:22:46 GMT
On the footie front- wondering if Wigan made a record with their 90+20' winner last night? Missed the game (have you seen the weather out there and I have a 30 minute walk to the game with no easy way by public transport) so would be cross to have missed a record like that.
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Post by alec on Jan 24, 2024 8:28:38 GMT
"My dear, you love the same tactic as the press, where they publish a story on page 1 but after a long legal battle publish a retraction at the bottom of page 25 six months later." No Danny - just stop the silly, childish inventions. It's all in your head. I've never retracted anything I've ever said about you're covid posts. Ever. Because I've simply pointed out where you were wrong. No one is persecuting you. It's nothing like the post office scandal or governments sacking judges. You just keep saying stupid things about covid that have no basis in fact, and I keep pointing your errors out. Nothing more complicated than that.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 24, 2024 8:30:18 GMT
DaveWhen can we expect the apology from Labour for allowing the Tories to win in 2010,15,17,19 and inflicting continuing austerity and Brexit on us all? It's exceptionally unusual for party leaders to apologise for mistakes at all, your response is one of the reasons they don't. Apology= weak in partisan politics. I'm not here to defend the coalition I didn't vote for either party in it but it's blindingly obvious that a party none of whose mps had any experience at all of being in government were not going to be experienced or duplicitous as the Tories.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 24, 2024 8:31:29 GMT
Looking at the detail of the primary voting in New Hampshire I notice that "Vermin Supreme" attracted 0.6% of the vote in the Democratic Primary. Unfortunately he got 54.6% in the Republican one.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 24, 2024 8:32:32 GMT
I have never doubted that Trump will be the nominee, but I assume Haley will stay in until South Carolina, which is next, as she was governor there. When Trump wins that she will withdraw. i wonder if some are giving thought to what happens if trump is forced to retire, and then whoever was ins econd place would presumably become candidate? Trump seems very exercised that opponents have not simply folded, and that too might be because he doesnt want a clear second place to become established.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 24, 2024 8:33:37 GMT
Danny - I've counted twelve errors of fact this time. Please don't this as a sign you're improving. You're not. It's still drivel. Do you think Danny boy is a part time scriptwriter for Donald Trump? He wrote a lifestyle book once too; "How to Believe 15 Impossible Things before Breakfast." It was a bestseller apparently, but I don't believe a word of it. 🤔🤣🐂
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 24, 2024 8:34:39 GMT
Looking at the detail of the primary voting in New Hampshire I notice that "Vermin Supreme" attracted 0.6% of the vote in the Democratic Primary. Unfortunately he got 54.6% in the Republican one. Vermin Supreme sounds like the name for a craft beer.
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Post by jib on Jan 24, 2024 8:35:49 GMT
I'm not here to defend the coalition I didn't vote for either party in it but it's blindingly obvious that a party none of whose mps had any experience at all of being in government were not going to be experienced or duplicitous as the Tories. Sorry, that's b*****X. Clegg, Davey, Laws and Alexander. Poor naive souls.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 24, 2024 8:37:37 GMT
Dave When can we expect the apology from Labour for allowing the Tories to win in 2010,15,17,19 and inflicting continuing austerity and Brexit on us all? It's exceptionally unusual for party leaders to apologise for mistakes at all, your response is one of the reasons they don't. Apology= weak in partisan politics. I'm not here to defend the coalition I didn't vote for either party in it but it's blindingly obvious that a party none of whose mps had any experience at all of being in government were not going to be experienced or duplicitous as the Tories. The 'orange book' liberals were (and still are I think) enthusiasts for a small state, low tax economy. It is their ideology and they were more than happy in supporting the Cameron/Osborne slashing of the state. It wasn't forced on them. Stranger is that the more social democratic wing of the Lib Dems (Cable for example) went along with it without so much as a murmur at the time.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 24, 2024 8:40:25 GMT
Interesting exit polling on new Hampshire from cnn. The bottom line was the traitors win was only around 11% recent polls had suggested 20% +even 30% wins.
The breakdown of the exit poll also yields good news for the democrats, only 64% of republicans self identified as maga ( not the 95% claimed by their cult leader) and the independents who are allowed to vote in the republican primary and tend to be republican leaning broke 65%-35% for Haley.
Given a choice between the traitor and President Biden it's hard to see this break changing other than further in favour of anti the traitor.
It's unlikely that we'll see profiles in courage from Haley when she eventually withdraws but an anti traitor endorsement of Biden at that point as the far lesser of two evils from a republican view would do something to secure democracy.
Just a minor fact check Haley isn't the current governor of South Carolina she was from 2010 to 2017 when she resigned to become U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 24, 2024 8:46:52 GMT
"Sorry, that's b*****X.
Clegg, Davey, Laws and Alexander.
Poor naive souls."
So font of wisdom remind us all of the extensive experience of liberal democrat mps in 2010 of being in national government?
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 24, 2024 8:54:28 GMT
Can't share all this venom and lust for vengeance against the Lib Dems on the Left. Sounds and feels too much like Far Left troping for me. Feel my righteous anger comrades exhibitionism.
The Lib Dems back then were duped by Cameron and probably led by a cadre of closet Tories or, if I'm being generous, a group of managerial politicians who fancied some rides in limousines and the frisson of power and red boxes. Human frailties. Chequers is nice midsummer too, I'm told.
Politics is a glorified board game of subterfuge, sleight of hand, chicanery and deception. You sometimes make a wrong move, get bitten, cash in you chips and go back to the start. Or jail sometimes.
The Lib Dems have done that and are now back in full anti Tory mode again. Beating Tories all over the place.
That'll do for me. Plenty of assists so my team can score goals. 2010-15 is 9 years ago now. The players who played that game have gone. New team, new game different ball park.
I couldn't give the merest toss about the Tory/Lib Dem Coalition now. It's sins were probably overhyped anyway.
Expediency always triumphs in the end in politics.
Long memories are an encumbrance in politics. Short ones are essential.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 24, 2024 8:55:52 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter You make these absolutist statements about the liberal democrats time in the coalition which simply aren't true. She apologised, during the election campaign, specifically for the bedroom tax but not austerity in general or the LDs participation in the coalition. That does not mean that the LDs are free from any criticism/responsibility for austerity. I'm not being 'absolutist', if you are part of a government you are responsible for what it does. If any LD member of the cabinet/gvt had felt strongly enough on an issue they could have resigned. Its the same for any party.@johnchannin, well there is a fundamental difference in being a part of the government implementing it and the opposition. Labour's weak opposition/criticism to austerity was the key factor in Corbyn becoming leader. domjg , You compare the two as if we can condemn one or the other. That's a big distortion of what I said - I just said I thought one was more more damaging than the other, and previously that some would have been impacted more by one than the other. I put no restriction on condemnation."That's a big distortion of what I said" - Apologies if you thought that, it was certainly not my intent, I clearly didn't phrase it well. Perhaps what I should have said was just that you were inviting comparison between the negative effects of either when they're not comparable in my view. They both had/have grave negative effects and while I can't disagree that austerity will have had more of a devastating effect on individuals in many cases as well as on children's education brexit will have long lasting negative systemic effects and for people like the Spanish wife of a british citizen who was refused re-entry by border staff behaving in an arbitrary manner it has powerful immediate effects on individuals as well as wider degredation of rights and standards and of course the slowboiling frog of economic investment.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 24, 2024 8:56:04 GMT
pjw1961"Someone is indeed ignoring the elephant - your good self. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats were in government in Westminster and own those policies. Labour was not." True but Labour were entirely responsible for electing ( twice) serial loser Corbyn, without whom post 2017 history might well have been differ and if they'd performed better in 2 010 it wouldn't have happened , at least not in the same way. I was a Labour party member for both leadership elections and am happy to report I didn't share the massive self delusion that led to the Corbyn fiasco and voted for potential winners instead.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 24, 2024 9:00:59 GMT
Can't share all this venom and lust for vengeance against the Lib Dems on the Left. Sounds and feels too much like Far Left troping for me. Feel my righteous anger comrades exhibitionism. The Lib Dems back then were duped by Cameron and probably led by a cadre of closet Tories or, if I'm being generous, a group of managerial politicians who fancied some rides in limousines and the frisson of power and red boxes. Human frailties. Chequers is nice midsummer too, I'm told. Politics is a glorified board game of subterfuge, sleight of hand, chicanery and deception. You sometimes make a wrong move, get bitten, cash in you chips and go back to the start. Or jail sometimes. The Lib Dems have done that and are now back in full anti Tory mode again. Beating Tories all over the place. That'll do for me. Plenty of assists so my team can score goals. 2010-15 is 9 years ago now. The players who played that game have gone. New team, new game different ball park. I couldn't give the merest toss about the Tory/Lib Dem Coalition now. It's sins were probably overhyped anyway. Expediency always triumphs in the end in politics. Long memories are an encumbrance in politics. Short ones are essential. "a group of managerial politicians who fancied some rides in limousines and the frisson of power and red boxes" - This plus bucket loads of naivety I suspect. Lambs to the slaughter. Can't absolve them of responsibility though and no great love for them per se but they are a very useful tool in the box for the main task of the day which is putting tories at threat in their heartlands. A screw head perfectly shaped for undoing previously apparently untouchable southern, tory seats. With that in prospect holding a fourteen year old grudge against them seems a bit self-defeating.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2024 9:06:02 GMT
An interesting piece from Danny Finkelstein today in which he sees Starmer flipping the political status quo-Mostly Tory with the occasional Labour Government. a quote from it :- "The opportunity for Starmer and the challenge for the Conservatives is that the Baldwin settlement might now be reversed. That Labour might now become the natural party of government, and the Tories win office for short intermissions when Labour gets tired or complacent. This would involve Labour effectively becoming the “Liberal Party”, though without a formal merger with the Liberal Democrats or any change of name. They would simply complete Tony Blair’s unfinished job of transformation. They would be a Baldwinite party but of the left. Broad, national, gradualist, more progressive and modernising than Baldwin but not radical. Meanwhile, the Tories would inherit, or more truthfully would choose, MacDonald’s problems. An excessively ideological view, a dogma with which reality never quite accords, dreams that cannot easily be fulfilled, an impatience with compromise, a purism that demands the impossible of its leaders. The result, a constant search for traitors and frequent coups. All of this would be linked to a demographic — predominantly older, non-urban, more male than female — concentrated and large but limited. Tory leaders would be constantly wondering how to reach beyond the core and only fitfully doing so." From :-"How Starmer could steal ultimate Tory mantle For the past 100 years the Conservatives have been the natural party of government but that role is now up for grabs" DF Times www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-starmer-could-steal-ultimate-tory-mantle-zbl2dzzvnps-Times leader today endorses Streeting's NHS Plan
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2024 9:27:13 GMT
many people are easily manipulable You are Josep Borrell and I claim my 5 euros He said this :- "an irrational hormonal spasm driven by fearful voters manipulated by disinformation." in response to this :- ecfr.eu/publication/a-sharp-right-turn-a-forecast-for-the-2024-european-parliament-elections/Other comments have been :- “serious soul-searching in the centre of European politics.Against a backdrop of stirring populism, which may reach a new peak with the return of Donald Trump later this year, parties of the political mainstream need to wake up.They have been sticking their fingers in their ears and going, ‘No, no, no’,” The real question is how political leaders and the EU respond.”" Professor Simon Hix, of the European University Institute in Florence, "“The threat of a European parliament with the far right in the driving seat is real,” Malik Azmani, a Dutch MEP " “The risk of an ungovernable Europe is pretty real, If the populist parties ever manage to have a blocking minority in the European parliament, the risk is that it will be very difficult to compose a majority.”" Stéphane Séjourné, the new French foreign minister, " voters who have long been ignored and patronised are on the march.A political earthquake is about to rock Europe. Millions of Europeans are saying, ‘We’ve had enough, we no longer trust these tired, entitled mainstream political parties’,” Prof Frank Furedi, director of the MMC think tank in Brussels,
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