domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 18, 2024 21:07:46 GMT
This polling from YouGov shows just how unaware of the facts on immigration many voters are Just for the record around 95% of immigrants come here legally Do Britons believe more migrants come to the UK legally or illegally? All Britons More come illegally: 45% More come legally: 34% About the same: 8% 2019 Con voters More come illegally: 56% More come legally: 27% About the same: 8% 2019 Lab voters More come illegally: 33% More come legally: 44% About the same: 7% Do they stay here legally? And is it legal to be admitted as a student and then to work full time in a take away? It just isnt a simple picture Who cares?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 18, 2024 21:51:42 GMT
Without doubt, the hyping of the covid vaccines is part of the problem of reluctance to vaccinate for other diseases, but only part of the problem. As I've said before, we've never before tried to vaccinate our way out of a pandemic, and there are any examples of 'leaky' vaccines, that prevent severe illness but don't stop transmission, being withdrawn because of the dangers of creating immune evasion and ultimately, more severe variants. This is what happened with the initial attempts at HIV vaccines, and it's been observed in several animal disease vaccines. The moment I knew we were heading for big trouble was when I saw the sentiment of people going for their first jabs, and the release of emotion that 'I'm safe' etc. We needed to jab + stop transmission, and we failed in the second part. You seem to be contradicting yourself. Starting off, you suggest a bad vaccine can actually make matters worse by creating 'immune evasion'. That being so, its not helping at all. And the problem with stopping transmission is it isnt possible. We did try that too, it didnt work. People have to socialise for society to exist, and if society ceases we all die. Which would of course end the epidemic, but doing that by all dying seems less than desireable as a solution. Right wingers like Danny??? Or even Right wingers in general? What does the right have to do with reduction in belief in jabs? There is an obvious capitalist desire to sell jabs to the public so as to make lots of money, is that a right wing trait? But if so, its rather the opposite of the action you suggest for them? Not sure what you mean by 'regular exercise'. a good vaccine is like those which have been used for years against measles. Give it once and it works for a lifetime. The fundamental reason why people catch repeat infections is because viruses (etc) mutate. So being different the old immunity doent work, or doesnt work perfectly. Covid is an example of a disease we have not expereinced as a species for a long time and so had very poor stored immunity. Not none, but only from catching similar viruses. The closer the match, the better the immunity. Then the question is, should you catch a changed disease frequently or rarely. If you catch it frequently the result is a cold. If you catch it rarely, the result is at least for some severe illness and death. So the tradeoff is lots of colds every year, or wave of deaths every ten years to a century? You favour the bursts of deaths, classic epidemics rather than annual colds? They used to say that about brain cells. But apparently, brain cells do regrow. No mate. Ageing is a complete collapse of the whole body, in an interactive cascade of all sorts of bits failing at around the same time. Also, adaptive changes as bits fail and the rest try to compensate. Its like a piece of machinery designed for all the parts to wear out at approximately the same time. Well for one example, cancer is a cumulative process where body cells become more and more damaged until some get so out of control they go wild. The chance of this happening must depend on the amount of cumulative damage, and (almost) all our body cells deteriorate over time. It seems some species are better at controlling this than others. a vaccine is an artificial infection, with similar effects on the immune system. So if you believe infections use up the immune system, then you must believe vaccinations also use up the immune system. Evolution only works through death. No death, no evolution. No evolution, no people. Its not about the survival of the individual but the race. As a race we survive by dying as individuals. Though we do seem to have lost sight of that. One way to improve the economic power of the Uk would likely be to ban health care for pensioners, for example.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 18, 2024 21:57:26 GMT
"What, a reasonable taxpayer is entitled to ask, are we paying for if the state can’t organise the self-defence of our society?" Except if he arrived in 2013 and didnt kill anyone till 2020, thats not so very bad compared to someone born here and dying here 85 years later, never having killed anyone either. Hardly a committed suicide bomber, or whatever if it took 7 years to get round to it.
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Post by jib on Jan 18, 2024 21:58:52 GMT
Evolution only works through death. No death, no evolution. No evolution, no people. Its not about the survival of the individual but the race. As a race we survive by dying as individuals. Though we do seem to have lost sight of that. One way to improve the economic power of the Uk would likely be to ban health care for pensioners, for example. Strangely insightful I must say. Controversial yes, but tending to the ever growing needs of entitled geriatrics is already unsustainable in the UK.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 18, 2024 22:08:46 GMT
Evolution only works through death. No death, no evolution. No evolution, no people. Its not about the survival of the individual but the race. As a race we survive by dying as individuals. Though we do seem to have lost sight of that. One way to improve the economic power of the Uk would likely be to ban health care for pensioners, for example. Strangely insightful I must say. Controversial yes, but tending to the ever growing needs of entitled geriatrics is already unsustainable in the UK. How do you plan to end the lives of these entitled geriatrics, presumably before they die naturally?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 18, 2024 22:22:44 GMT
I could well be wrong, but I think the Conservative Party is heading for an almighty calamity, and one from which recovery in any meaningful sense is unlikely. We can all see the rocks through our telescopes, but no one quite believes what lies beneath the waves until we hear the shattering sound of the ship running aground. Con won in 2010 through a mix of fixups. One was to subourn the libs. Another was to make the most of the 2008 world recession caused primarily by US banks selling the world securities which they always knew were high risk, and frankly fraudulent in the way they were sold. But an important one was euroscepticism and promise to reign back the EU, which then became the promise of the brexit referendum at the following election. Brexit was always a one-off benefit, because if it succeeded then obviously it had to lose its appeal as a cause. And worst case it wouldnt just lose those supporters because the task was achieved, it would alienate them because the achievement failed to live up to promised outcomes. But what would happen in 5 years was never the point, the point was to win now. In the event its done pretty well, three parliaments worth. Theres a decent argument that any harm eventually done to the party by adopting Brexit was well worth it, it turned an unelectable 2010 or 2015 into election wins. The option was an unelectable party now in 2024, or one back in 2010, so its really a no-brainer to go with brexit.
Conservative loss in 1997 was the inevitable result of the policies it adopted, which were very similar to now. Sell any state assets you can, transferring their profits to the private sector. Cut state services requiring people to go private. Suppress transfer of wealth from the rich to the poor. There are winners on the way as this is happening, but eventually a majority of the public sees its quality of life deteriorating and switches to a different party. I do not actually believe the UK majority wanted a return to these core conservative values. That was the importance of brexit, it could bring on board enough extra voters to create a majority when combined with the conservative core minority 'winners' from their policy.
So I'm not sure the conservative party truly recovered from its 1997 disaster, it sidestepped it by claiming a more pressing issue. Interesting then what it will do to rehabilitate itself this time. While we may all be complaining about rising national debt and collapsing state services, that isnt actually why con are doing so badly. Its because the leavers have abandoned them. This isnt new, it was happening to May too for slightly different reasons which however also amounted to not delivering the brexit promises. (and then Johnson renewed them).
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Post by mercian on Jan 18, 2024 22:24:51 GMT
Some of you people are so antagonistic over perfectly innocent posts it's unbelievable. You rang a small bell :- " To meet the ideological requirements of Ingsoc (English Socialism) in Oceania, the Party created Newspeak, which is a controlled language of simplified grammar and limited vocabulary designed to limit a person's ability for critical thinking and thus limit the person's ability to articulate abstract concepts, such as personal identity, self-expression, and free will, which are thoughtcrimes, acts of personal independence that contradict the ideological orthodoxy of Ingsoc collectivism." WIKI "Newspeak" We're getting there.
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Post by alec on Jan 18, 2024 22:26:18 GMT
Danny - I've counted at least 15 glaring errors of fact in your latest sad effort. If you can spot them, I'll give you a prize! It's just woeful, I'm afraid. Utterly woeful.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 18, 2024 22:34:13 GMT
I don't understand the logic of the Lords having a 'Delaying power' which it is never prepared to use! It might as well not exist at all. The point their lordships seem to be trying to make is the same as the conservative MP rebels. To make a strong objection, but then step back and watch. The lords will not be reformed, however much the lords use their existing powers, because the only credible reforms would give them more democratic legitimacy for acting more often.
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Post by mercian on Jan 18, 2024 22:35:24 GMT
but the story of Wilson's ascent to the top of British politics, from being the youngest ever Cabinet member at 31, in Attlees's Cabinet, Wasn't Pitt the Younger, as PM, in the Cabinet then? EDIT: Beaten to it by graham this time, and probably others I haven't got to yet
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 18, 2024 22:44:49 GMT
How do you plan to end the lives of these entitled geriatrics, presumably before they die naturally? Con already answered that one over the last 14 years. Cut funding for social care and the NHS. It been government policy since 2010.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 18, 2024 22:50:53 GMT
Anyone who bothered with my earlier post on today's local government by-elections might like to know Labour have done a last minute 'reverse ferret' and un-banned their own candidate in Hackney:
"London Labour confirms Laura Pascal’s suspension has been lifted just hours before the polls open in the Hackney by-election. Pascal said: “I offer a heartfelt apology to the people of Cazenove ward, Hackney and anyone who has been offended by my social media activity…”"
We will soon know what damage has been done. I assume there will now be resignations from those who bought the complaint against her in the first place.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 18, 2024 22:52:29 GMT
but the story of Wilson's ascent to the top of British politics, from being the youngest ever Cabinet member at 31, in Attlees's Cabinet, Wasn't Pitt the Younger, as PM, in the Cabinet then? We've done that one.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 18, 2024 22:58:43 GMT
Strangely insightful I must say. Controversial yes, but tending to the ever growing needs of entitled geriatrics is already unsustainable in the UK. How do you plan to end the lives of these entitled geriatrics, presumably before they die naturally? I assume the plan is to watch them die untreated in unnecessary pain and agony while Danny and Jib stand around and tell them it is for the greater good. I prefer Principle 1 of the NHS Constitution: "1. The NHS provides a comprehensive service, available to all - It is available to all irrespective of gender, race, disability, age, sexual orientation, religion, belief, gender reassignment, pregnancy and maternity or marital or civil partnership status." www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-nhs-constitution-for-england/the-nhs-constitution-for-england
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Post by jib on Jan 18, 2024 23:00:24 GMT
Strangely insightful I must say. Controversial yes, but tending to the ever growing needs of entitled geriatrics is already unsustainable in the UK. How do you plan to end the lives of these entitled geriatrics, presumably before they die naturally? Bloody eck... I talk about sustainable healthcare and you're already thinking of that....?
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Post by mercian on Jan 18, 2024 23:06:19 GMT
It was just an idea that I hoped might help steve . So in your examples I'd have to go to a synagogue somewhere (London?), Wales and a rather dangerous area of Birmingham before I can post a one-line idea that I hoped might be helpful? Get real. I didn't say being bilingual is bad, simply trying to put myself in the position of the small child who might get upset if people outside it's immediate family couldn't understand what it was saying. Some of you people are so antagonistic over perfectly innocent posts it's unbelievable. I thought my post was civil! If you hv never heard young people switching between languages as if born to it, you must, in this respect at least, lead a v sheltered life. My advice is to get out more. I live in Manchester. There are plenty of districts I don't visit often, as they hold nothing for me, but I can't say there are any dangerous areas. I'm sorry you live in fear & trembling of these supposed no-go areas. ... colin s response to yr cri de coeur is to quote Orwell on Newspeak. I've no idea why & I doubt he has. Newspeak is politician-speak, management-speak, Post-Office-Officials-Defending-Intolerable-Injustice-Speak. The arch-exponent of what Orwell meant is Trump. ...Like others on here you have a good imagination. I said that there were areas of Birmingham that are dangerous, not that I was afraid to go there though I usually have no reason to. We moved from one such area 40 years ago for the sake of our children. Here's a link: www.expressandstar.com/news/local-hubs/birmingham/2023/07/10/second-attempted-murder-charge-after-man-shot-in-chest/It's the same area where a man went berserk in a nursery with a machete a few years ago. colin can speak for himself, but I took his quote to be a commentary on the way that even well-intended posts can be attacked from all sides if they are considered to be from the 'wrong' political viewpoint (even if they're non-political).
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2024 23:07:21 GMT
"What, a reasonable taxpayer is entitled to ask, are we paying for if the state can’t organise the self-defence of our society?" Except if he arrived in 2013 and didnt kill anyone till 2020, thats not so very bad compared to someone born here and dying here 85 years later, never having killed anyone either. Hardly a committed suicide bomber, or whatever if it took 7 years to get round to it. That is the weirdest post I’ve ever read on this site and I have read some very weird ones….mainly from you of course which is why I rarely read them any of the hundred or so you share every bloody week.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 18, 2024 23:12:38 GMT
Interesting examination of the Ashcroft poll, not regarding the top figures but the priorities by party affiliation. The similarity between Labour and the lib dems not just in order of importance but to virtually the same individual percentage is notable. youtu.be/3XqIro1r_BY?si=UsONihoDMRTKVTuH
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Post by mercian on Jan 18, 2024 23:31:37 GMT
Paul Waugh on why unrestricted overseas voting rights might be for Christmas but not for life Yet the real story behind the Tory changes is not so much about electors, but about the way the law now allows overseas residents with tenuous links to the UK to donate huge sums of cash to British parties. That's because voter registration rights come with rights to make donations. The legislation to expand the franchise could have been amended to restrict donations to those who had very recently lived in the UK. Instead, at a stroke, the Conservatives have guaranteed that a handful of wealthy individuals who choose to spend their whole life abroad can now bankroll their campaigning. That in itself is perhaps as significant as the more high profile voter-ID rule changes. And it's why Labour may want to repeal this legislation even sooner than some suspect. This is in his newsletter today so probably will appear in the i newspaper tomorrow. Originally expat voting was for five years after leaving the UK. Maggie increased it to 20 years then Blair cut it to 15. This increase to lifetime voting rights might not long outlast a change of government. Agree this is disgusting, but the ability of the mega-rich to buy political influence with unlimited donations could do with some legal restriction regardless of where they live. I don't see how any country that permits it can realistically be called a democracy. Very difficult to police. Mega-rich individuals will usually have their fingers in many pies, and each pie could make a donation. I'm not saying it's right.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 18, 2024 23:36:31 GMT
Accelerated death by involuntary deprivation of healthcare is an interesting Brexit benefit, I have to say, but I suppose, unencumbered as we are now by EU regulations on such matters, it is a sovereign regain of sorts.
I'm intrigued on selection methods though. And the definition of "entitled" too.
Maybe Euthenasia Committees in all NHS Trusts drawing up lists. People Committees for National Renewal. Let a thousand pensioners die.
Graham is going to be needed here for appropriate Nazi or Soviet metaphors, I think.
Either that or an Issue Specific Thread on the subject, maybe. "Farewell, Granny; it was nice knowing you ", the title
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Post by mercian on Jan 18, 2024 23:37:31 GMT
Wasn't Pitt the Younger, as PM, in the Cabinet then? We've done that one. I apologise for not being on here all day. 🙄
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Post by guymonde on Jan 18, 2024 23:54:20 GMT
How do you plan to end the lives of these entitled geriatrics, presumably before they die naturally? Bloody eck... I talk about sustainable healthcare and you're already thinking of that....? Having recently been given a responsibility about Healthcare I've been mugging up on it, and the connection between poverty and dying early is quite stark, very relevant in the rather economically challenged piece of London where I live. So austerity seems to be effective in thinning out the oldies but I'm not sure if Labour supporters die sufficiently earlier than the Tories to outdo the excess of old Tories because they are poorer. We probably need a poll (of the survivors would be more practical than those who have passed on) My other learning today came from YouGov (thanks for the alert, someone). Amongst 18-24 electorate only 4% are Tories which augurs well for the future. London is also interesting in that Lab have 57% against Con's 15%. Looks tight for Sadiq against political genius Susan Hall www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZdLZGxZJPg
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Post by mercian on Jan 18, 2024 23:57:43 GMT
Local by-election results coming in. (edited as new results happen)
Lab hold Tooting Broadway. Lab +6.7%. Con +0.8% LD hold Stannington. LD +0.3% Lab +4.8% Con -4.6% LD gain Hampton North from Con. LD +19.9% Grn -16.2% Lab -1.1% Con -16.2% LD hold Teddington. Con gain Hackney Cazenove from Lab.
1 result still waiting (Warwick), but I'm done for the night.
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Post by eor on Jan 19, 2024 0:15:52 GMT
Meanwhile in New Hampshire... two new polls and they make horrible reading for Ron DeSantis. Both with fieldwork after the Iowa results were known, and after both Christie and Ramaswamay had dropped out of the race. Suffolk University have; Trump 50 Haley 36 DeSantis 6 Saint Anselm College have; Trump 52 Haley 38 DeSantis 6 projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/Very hard to see how DeSantis can continue, not least because after New Hampshire the next state contested between the three of them is scheduled to be South Carolina, where Nikki Haley was Governor for six years, and whilst Trump has a big polling lead there it'll make her the de facto challenger. I wouldn't be surprised if DeSantis withdraws even before the New Hampshire vote on Tuesday, to at least save some face. (as steve pointed out earlier, DeSantis is doing even worse in the slightly earlier American Research Group poll that puts Trump and Haley tied, so whether ARG are waaaay off or are going to look like visionaries on Wednesday morning, it offers DeSantis no help either way)
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 19, 2024 4:03:23 GMT
Local by-election results coming in. (edited as new results happen) Lab hold Tooting Broadway. Lab +6.7%. Con +0.8% LD hold Stannington. LD +0.3% Lab +4.8% Con -4.6% LD gain Hampton North from Con. LD +19.9% Grn -16.2% Lab -1.1% Con -16.2% LD hold Teddington. Con gain Hackney Cazenove from Lab. 1 result still waiting (Warwick), but I'm done for the night. Labour held the Warwick one comfortably, so I got 5 of my predictions right, the exception being Hackney where the Lib Dem vote went over en masse to the Tories (the victorious Tory candidate is an ex-Lib Dem). A result with "local factors" written all over it. The Lib Dem vote went from 1,471 to 73! The Conservative from 251 to 1,623! The Labour figures were 1,724 down to 935 (context being the huge row and suspended candidate previously mentioned). Green 463 to 387. So it was the Lib Dems wot won it - for the Tories.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 19, 2024 6:13:48 GMT
"Do they stay here legally? And is it legal to be admitted as a student and then to work full time in a take away? It just isnt a simple picture Who cares?" domjgIndeed All three of my natural and adopted children have completed or are undertaking degrees while working full time. Both Faith and I completed masters degrees while working full time The two things aren't incompatible.Just harder.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 19, 2024 6:20:20 GMT
Do they stay here legally? And is it legal to be admitted as a student and then to work full time in a take away? It just isnt a simple picture Who cares? Supposedly 20% of voters? And if you pose the question as how we are going to deal with global warming accompanied by world food shortages and flooding of low lying regions, you might find the other 80% starts worrying about how we feed and house the population. Whats yuour plan how we deal with global warming?
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 19, 2024 6:29:36 GMT
Regarding the Hackney election
"Labour’s candidate for Thursday’s by-election in Hackney has been “administratively suspended” by the party following a complaint about transphobia. Laura Pascal was fighting to retain the Cazenove seat vacated when Caroline Woodley was elected mayor last year, but the party has now called a halt to any campaigning on her behalf.She was reinstated at the last minute
With the by-election just days away, it is too late for Labour to field a new candidate, and a party source confirmed that should Pascal win, she will sit as an independent councillor.
I've no idea why there was a huge drop in the Lib dems vote( have you information on this) I know the candidate was urging all progressive voters to rally behind them as an alternative, clearly this didn't happen it's totally inconsistent with any other local election results, genuinely bizarre m.
I think it would be fairer to say that Labour lost it given that it not a single lib dem vote changed hands the Tory candidate would still have won.
As you say a local election with local factors definitely at play
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 19, 2024 6:37:55 GMT
Except if he arrived in 2013 and didnt kill anyone till 2020, thats not so very bad compared to someone born here and dying here 85 years later, never having killed anyone either. Hardly a committed suicide bomber, or whatever if it took 7 years to get round to it. That is the weirdest post I’ve ever read on this site and I have read some very weird ones….mainly from you of course which is why I rarely read them any of the hundred or so you share every bloody week. The UK murder rate is apparently 11 per million of the population per year. This begs the question, how does the rate per million immigrants compare per million natives? Considering there were 3 million visas issued to come to the Uk in year to June 2023. Doesnt say how long they stay on average, only 600,000 got visa extensions, but that could mean at any one time there might be ten million people here (legally) who are not UK natives? If so, then on average you would expect 100 murders from them each year? Point is, the odd murderer here or there doesnt tell us much about real risk from immigrants compared to from natives.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 19, 2024 7:03:20 GMT
Maybe Euthenasia Committees in all NHS Trusts drawing up lists. People Committees for National Renewal. Let a thousand pensioners die. Did you miss my post about 'More or less' this week? They covered a story they have covered before, that delays in A&E before receiving treatment cause extra people to die while they wait. They calculate the delay being assessed and treated while waiting in A%E during December 2023 alone for more than 12 hours caused 2000 extra people to die. So if you need to cut further, say the 10,000s, you just have to cut funding a bit more and do that all year round. Then presumably cut general funding a bit more and we could get to the 100,000s a year. Totally no need for committees or picking people, they are self selecting. The stats are all there already how the death rate has risen ever since con started cutting back on the NHS budget since 2010.(whereas previously during lab real budget increases each year the death rate was falling) You totally missed my point this is ALREADY policy. It just isnt being sold as Euthenasia by the party dependent on the pensioner vote.
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