domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 30, 2023 12:21:15 GMT
@rafwan I know. It was because he was young and fresh faced at the time and perhaps not that well known. He was shadow home secretary, not that small a role.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 30, 2023 12:27:40 GMT
Basically it's not very good. Only 60% protection vs hospitalisation from the booster vs no booster, and 0% protection from prior vaccination and no booster vs unvaccinated. You seem to be saying the unvaccinated are better off, or at least as well off as the vaccinated? (better off since they didnt go to the trouble or expense of being vaccinated) It may be you were unclear in what you wrote, saying the vaccinated frankly were no better off than the un. If you were seeeking to imply boosters did some good, I'd point out that a 60% reduction in number being hospitalised is only significant to society if the original total being hospitalised was itself significant. And it does not seem to be the case. This all likely reflects the fact those dying from covid have always been people already especially susceptible to covid for one reason or another, and its no surprise vaccines would help this group least. You have to be healthy for a vaccine to work! When any disase comes along, its the susceptible who die, and covid behaved exactly the same.
By the way, I just had an atypical, mild, cold, much less of the runny nose than usual and a touch of cough. Do you think it was this latest horrendous covid strain you keep going on about?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 30, 2023 12:32:58 GMT
As I've been saying for some time we really need to beef up our armed forces. Perhaps it's being done on the quiet but I doubt it. I'm ready to shoot drones down with my bow and arrows but I doubt if that will hold them for long. The Uk has been spending all its money on aircraft carriers pretty pointless for the defence of the Uk, or Europe. Only useful to project power around the globe, in particualr in support of a US action. It would mean a massive hike in european spending to create a force able to project power around the world. A lessr goal of holding off Russia is much easier, but we arent doing that eitther.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 30, 2023 12:40:58 GMT
"I am not a pacifist, I am not saying we should lay down our arms, what I am saying is that saying we should 'tool up' (which our would be adversaries would also do in response) is not a road we should run down."
The problem with this position is that our most likely adversary Russia that has already committed acts of cyber terrorism in the UK ,has already killed UK citizens in the UK , has interfered and corrupted a general election and the Brexit referendum and the Tory party and is currently committing war crimes at a level not seen in Europe since world war two. Under war criminal Putin Russia has already ramped up military production by up to 1000%, a response by the European union and the UK with more spending on military defence in the circumstances we find ourselves in isn't an act of provocation it's a reasonable response to a clear and present danger.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 30, 2023 12:44:00 GMT
"The Uk has been spending all its money on aircraft carriers pretty pointless for the defence of the Uk, or Europe"
Except if Putin extends his wars of aggression to the Baltic and the Balkans having significant anti aviation and naval platforms would actually be very helpful.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2023 12:44:12 GMT
The thing that did for the Major government was the exit from the ERM and the firm impression it created in the public mind of economic incompetence. This is clearly visible in the VI polling for 1992-97. Blair's centrist appeal was likely a secondary factor as he made it 'safe' to vote Labour. I think without those things the Conservatives could have survived the sleaze stuff, as they have before and since. Not for this voter. It was Tory Infighting- Sleaze-Blair-. In that order
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 30, 2023 13:02:43 GMT
Election Maps UK @electionmapsuk · 9h Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 45% (-4) CON: 23% (+4) LDM: 10% (+1) RFM: 10% (-1) GRN: 6% (-1) SNP: 4% (+1) Via @peoplepolling , TBC. Reversion to mean? The previous 30% Labour lead this pollster had looked way out of kilter. Tories on 19% too!!?? Never right. Even this 22% Labour lead looks a little on the high side. People Polling always had rather larger Labour leads than any other pollster, chiefly because of their low Tory VI. They tend to over-estimate SNP VI as well compared with all other pollsters. Their 3% for SNP in October was the first time it was as low as this, for the rest of 2023 it was 5% (nine times) with 6% (once) and 4% (six times).
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Post by alec on Dec 30, 2023 13:03:05 GMT
Danny - "By the way, I just had an atypical, mild, cold, much less of the runny nose than usual and a touch of cough. Do you think it was this latest horrendous covid strain you keep going on about?" No idea. You would have been well advised to test though, just to be on the safe side. The most typical time frame for the development of long term symptoms from covid is from 3 - 6 months, particularly for the rather unpleasant gastric symptoms, so take care. Over exertion is known to be a risk factor for the development of persistent symptoms, so I'd suggest resting a little more than you think you need to for the next few weeks. I sincerely hope you don't go down with anything more serious, but plenty of people are. I did think it was odd that you had only posted 13 times in the last 8 days, and didn't manage a single post for five whole days from Christmas Eve. Very unlike you! Who knows - perhaps you're not being entirely honest about just how mild it was..... Have a good New Year, when it finally comes.
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Post by alec on Dec 30, 2023 13:05:39 GMT
Polls over holiday periods with large movements: On UKPR1, we used to have a regular thing about being careful with polls taken over holiday periods. A mixture of people being away, busy, or thinking of other things was often credited with creating unusual swings, one way or the other, as it appeared that gathering balanced samples became a little more difficult.
Not sure if that applies to polling companies still, as methods are refined, but possibly worth bearing in mind?
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 30, 2023 13:20:02 GMT
"I am not a pacifist, I am not saying we should lay down our arms, what I am saying is that saying we should 'tool up' (which our would be adversaries would also do in response) is not a road we should run down." The problem with this position is that our most likely adversary Russia that has already committed acts of cyber terrorism in the UK ,has already killed UK citizens in the UK , has interfered and corrupted a general election and the Brexit referendum and the Tory party and is currently committing war crimes at a level not seen in Europe since world war two. Under war criminal Putin Russia has already ramped up military production by up to 1000%, a response by the European union and the UK with more spending on military defence in the circumstances we find ourselves in isn't an act of provocation it's a reasonable response to a clear and present danger. One is reminded of the 1930s where appeasement of the fascist regimes was the order of the day. In the end, appeasement only results in you paying a higher price when you do eventually have to stand firm. If Franco had been stopped in Spain we might not have had the Sudetenland and if Hitler had been stopped in the Sudetenland he might have been less ready to invade Poland. Ukraine is this century's Sudetenland; Taiwan may be its Poland. George W Bush's "Axis of Evil" comprised Iran, Iraq and North Korea; these days it would be Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.
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Post by graham on Dec 30, 2023 13:54:29 GMT
"I am not a pacifist, I am not saying we should lay down our arms, what I am saying is that saying we should 'tool up' (which our would be adversaries would also do in response) is not a road we should run down." The problem with this position is that our most likely adversary Russia that has already committed acts of cyber terrorism in the UK ,has already killed UK citizens in the UK , has interfered and corrupted a general election and the Brexit referendum and the Tory party and is currently committing war crimes at a level not seen in Europe since world war two. Under war criminal Putin Russia has already ramped up military production by up to 1000%, a response by the European union and the UK with more spending on military defence in the circumstances we find ourselves in isn't an act of provocation it's a reasonable response to a clear and present danger. One is reminded of the 1930s where appeasement of the fascist regimes was the order of the day. In the end, appeasement only results in you paying a higher price when you do eventually have to stand firm. If Franco had been stopped in Spain we might not have had the Sudetenland and if Hitler had been stopped in the Sudetenland he might have been less ready to invade Poland. Ukraine is this century's Sudetenland; Taiwan may be its Poland. George W Bush's "Axis of Evil" comprised Iran, Iraq and North Korea; these days it would be Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. Israeli aggression against the West Bank and Gaza also needs to be countered before Netenyahu is able to complete his Final Solution.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2023 14:00:21 GMT
One is reminded of the 1930s where appeasement of the fascist regimes was the order of the day. In the end, appeasement only results in you paying a higher price when you do eventually have to stand firm. If Franco had been stopped in Spain we might not have had the Sudetenland and if Hitler had been stopped in the Sudetenland he might have been less ready to invade Poland. Ukraine is this century's Sudetenland; Taiwan may be its Poland. George W Bush's "Axis of Evil" comprised Iran, Iraq and North Korea; these days it would be Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. Hopefully not Poland this time around. They plan to spend 4% X GDP on Defence next year * -a 16% increase and the highest current level in NATO. If any country has understood and acted on the risks facing Europe, it is the Poles. Very much agree with your post * though there is a public finances issue and a new government ?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2023 14:16:16 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2023 14:44:14 GMT
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 30, 2023 15:45:01 GMT
This really needs to start happening on a grand scale now, regardless. It's nearly eight decades since the end of the second world war that propelled the USA into the position of military guarantor of the free world and it's not a role that any country would be willing to take on indefinitely. Japan also needs to shed it's pacifistic constitution and tool up, possibly becoming a nuclear power. You know what? This really depresses me. What depresses me more is that, not only in the UK, but, around the world, it is you, not me, that is in the majority on this...and likely a very sizeable majority. It is me that is the outlier here. I am not a pacifist, I am not saying we should lay down our arms, what I am saying is that saying we should 'tool up' (which our would be adversaries would also do in response) is not a road we should run down. This is, to my mind, stacking up dominoes, should one fall, others come tumbling down....IMO, a factor in how WWI got started and a mistake we cannot afford to make. I fear that e may be sleepwalking into doing so. As for Japan (or any other country for that matter) joining the nuclear club, surely we need to make that club smaller, not larger. I have long been for ridding these weapons from the face of the earth for one sumple reason - as long as they exist, someone, somewhere, will eventually use them. Hopefully after I'm long gone if it ever happens...but, the only way to ensure it doesn't happen is to get rid of them. Deterrence only has to fail once to plunge any survivors into pain and darkness....and that's IF the human race, long term, does actually survive such an event. I don't want to call you naive but this does remind me of the attitude of many left wing, older Germans, as if we must understand the 'genuine concerns' of men like Putin or Xi and if we roll over they'll say 'thank you for being so understanding' and leave us alone. The reality of course is that such men are predators, always looking for signs of weakness and naivete to exploit. In Putin's case especially he has effectively already declared war on the west and on human dignity and tries to spread misinformation, interfere in elections and undermine our societies wherever possible. They want to destroy the rule based international order and will use any opening they can find to pursue that end regardless of what we do. Peace in the midst of such actors can be guaranteed only by showing overwhelming strength and resolve, by making it clear they will pay a high price for any red line crossing. By muddying your resolve and showing weakness all you are doing is making war more likely as someone like Putin thinks they can cross red lines with impunity and eventually they'll cross a line you can't ignore and all hell will break loose. An example of appeasing the 'genuine' concerns of wicked men is obviously the 1930s. As a result of the weakness and lack of resolve he perceived from Britain and France Hitler didn't really believe we'd go to war for Poland. The Cold War is, to my mind on the other hand, an example of deterrence through strength and unequivocal resolve that could not be misunderstood. Deterrence is unlikely to fail if resolve is clear and the price too high. It's irrelevant in any case as we can't wish Putin and Xi away and we have no choice but to show strength or concede.
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Post by barbara on Dec 30, 2023 16:06:40 GMT
I got talking to a guy once who had worked in one of the countries on the equator. The main thing he found hardest to cope with was instant light at 6.30am and instant dark at 6.30pm. All year without variance. No sunsets or sunrises. Drove him mad he said. “ I got talking to a guy once who had worked in one of the countries on the equator. The main thing he found hardest to cope with was instant light at 6.30am and instant dark at 6.30pm. All year without variance. No sunsets or sunrises. Drove him mad he said.” I lived for 4 years in Accra. Here is a sunset from Labadi - not my photo - which is less than 6° from the Equator. View AttachmentInteresting. Either he was telling fibs or it differs according to the part of the world. I've no idea.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 30, 2023 17:30:46 GMT
"Brexit has completely failed for UK, say clear majority of Britons – poll Only one in 10 feel leaving the EU has helped their finances, while just 9% say it has benefited the NHS, despite £350m a week pledge according to new poll
A clear majority of the British public now believes Brexit has been bad for the UK economy, has driven up prices in shops, and has hampered government attempts to control immigration including a majority of leave voters, according to a landmark poll by Opinium to mark the third anniversary of the UK fully leaving the EU single market and customs union.
The survey of more than 2,000 UK voters also finds strikingly low numbers of people who believe that Brexit has been of benefit to them or the country.
Just one in 10 people (10%) believe leaving the EU has helped their personal financial situation, against 35% who say it has been bad for their finances, while just 9% say it has been good for the NHS against 47% who say it has had a negative effect.
Ominously for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who backed Brexit and claimed it would be economically beneficial for the public, only 7% of people think leaving the EU has helped keep down prices in UK shops, against 63% who think Brexit has been a factor in fuelling inflation and the cost of living crisis.
The poll suggests that seven and a half years on from the referendum and three years on from the moment the UK finally left the single market and customs union after the transition period, the British public now regards Brexit as a failure. Just 22% of voters believe it has been good for the UK in general. "
Just 22% and yet both of our largest parties continue with the canard that somehow it can be made a success.
Bonkers.
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Post by mercian on Dec 30, 2023 17:49:59 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 30, 2023 18:17:47 GMT
mercianScott is a decent man but as can be anticipated Vermont isn't simply the deep blue state it portrays. Vermont returns two senators the more famous Bernie Sanders isn't a democrat he's an independent socialist albeit he caucases with the democrats, the State Senate leans heavily democrat but the Senate president is an independent progressive the state's electorate voted heavily in favour of Biden over Trump. Scott is an anomaly in the maga republican party fiscally conservative but socially liberal , he could equally be a mainstream democrat without any significant policy shift. It's difficult to see his equivalent in the republican party being elected anywhere other than Vermont. The closest comparison would have been governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in California another socially liberal republican who wouldn't " be back" in the present fascist iteration. Arnold Schwarzenegger described the traitor as " the worst President ever" and would support a democrat in a contest involving the traitor as candidate. Scott shares a similar view and has publicly stated that he voted for Joe Biden in 2020.
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Post by robbiealive on Dec 30, 2023 18:51:46 GMT
leftieliberal "The problem One is reminded of the 1930s where appeasement of the fascist regimes was the order of the day. In the end, appeasement only results in you paying a higher price when you do eventually have to stand firm. If Franco had been stopped in Spain we might not have had the Sudetenland and if Hitler had been stopped in the Sudetenland he might have been less ready to invade Poland. Ukraine is this century's Sudetenland; Taiwan may be its Poland. George W Bush's "Axis of Evil" comprised Iran, Iraq and North Korea; these days it would be Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. "[/quote] ROBBIE ... 1. I like the breadth of yr post v much but if I can editorialize the '30s component. 2. Before the crises of 1938 were the Tories that bothered about Hitler - apart from Churchill's gang, seen as dangerous troublemakers. Chips Channon. his worthless diaries now published, a typical backbencher?, was sympathetic to the Nazis & said "who cares about a little Jew baiting." 2. Lefties were vastly more concerned with Spanish Republicans than Germany, e.g. Orwell. Spain was the front line against fascism. Again the Tories preferred a Franco victory to a full-blooded Republican one, not forseeing WW1. 3. Even Churchill long saw fascist Italy as a Mediterranen counter-weight to Germany. 4. Pre the Molotov pact they made no real effort to engage with Russia. They did not cave in to fascism so much as believe they could live with & even benefit from fascist strength. I exaggerate: but policy was a strategy not the conscious submission it appears with hindsight.
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Post by hireton on Dec 30, 2023 18:53:07 GMT
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 30, 2023 19:47:42 GMT
“ I got talking to a guy once who had worked in one of the countries on the equator. The main thing he found hardest to cope with was instant light at 6.30am and instant dark at 6.30pm. All year without variance. No sunsets or sunrises. Drove him mad he said.” I lived for 4 years in Accra. Here is a sunset from Labadi - not my photo - which is less than 6° from the Equator. View AttachmentInteresting. Either he was telling fibs or it differs according to the part of the world. I've no idea. It's not accurate, but it does get dark much quicker near the Equator than it does at higher latitudes. There are three different definitions of twilight: civil twilight when the centre of the sun's disk is less than 6 degrees below the horizon, nautical twilight when it is between 6 and 12 degrees below the horizon and astronomical twilight when it is between 12 and 18 degrees below the horizon. We call the beginning of civil twilight at the start of the day, dawn and the end of civil twilight at the end of the day, dusk. So today in London, civil twilight is from 07:26-08:06 and 15:59-16:39 (forty minutes in both cases). When the Sun is overhead at noon (as on the equator at the equinoxes) it descends vertically towards the horizon at 15 degrees per hour, so six degrees in 24 minutes [1]. So it gets dark nearly twice as quickly in the Tropics as it does in mid-latitudes like London. EDIT [1] There is also the effect of atmospheric refraction, so when you see the bottom of the solar disk touching the horizon, in reality the whole solar disk is actually below the horizon (but that only makes a difference of half a degree or two minutes in time plus 1 minute for the time between the centre of the solar disk being on the horizon and the top of the solar disk being on the horizon). So 21 minutes rather than 24 as in the approximate calculation above.
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Post by eor on Dec 30, 2023 19:53:22 GMT
mercianScott is a decent man but as can be anticipated Vermont isn't simply the deep blue state it portrays. Vermont returns two senators the more famous Bernie Sanders isn't a democrat he's an independent socialist albeit he caucases with the democrats, the State Senate leans heavily democrat but the Senate president is an independent progressive the state's electorate voted heavily in favour of Biden over Trump. Scott is an anomaly in the maga republican party fiscally conservative but socially liberal , he could equally be a mainstream democrat without any significant policy shift. It's difficult to see his equivalent in the republican party being elected anywhere other than Vermont. It's not that unusual up there actually - Scott's predecessor as "Most Popular Governor" was Charlie Baker (re-elected with 67% in Massachussetts in 2018), and whilst New Hampshire isn't anywhere near as blue then Chris Sununu is another fiscally conservative and socially liberal Republican Governor with strong crossover appeal. Likewise conservative Democrat governors aren't that outlandish in pretty deep red states - there still seems to be an extent to which Governors evade the hyper-polarisation even as it's largely consumed Senate elections.
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Post by eor on Dec 30, 2023 20:21:15 GMT
steve tho on your other point, I'm going from memory but I think Baker hedged for ages and then said he wrote in a different Republican in 2016? Jeb Bush maybe? No idea about 2020, wouldn't surprise me if he also voted for Biden tho.
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Post by mercian on Dec 30, 2023 21:16:30 GMT
Interesting. Either he was telling fibs or it differs according to the part of the world. I've no idea. It's not accurate, but it does get dark much quicker near the Equator than it does at higher latitudes. There are three different definitions of twilight: civil twilight when the centre of the sun's disk is less than 6 degrees below the horizon, nautical twilight when it is between 6 and 12 degrees below the horizon and astronomical twilight when it is between 12 and 18 degrees below the horizon. We call the beginning of civil twilight at the start of the day, dawn and the end of civil twilight at the end of the day, dusk. So today in London, civil twilight is from 07:26-08:06 and 15:59-16:39 (forty minutes in both cases). When the Sun is overhead at noon (as on the equator at the equinoxes) it descends vertically towards the horizon at 15 degrees per hour, so six degrees in 24 minutes [1]. So it gets dark nearly twice as quickly in the Tropics as it does in mid-latitudes like London. EDIT [1] There is also the effect of atmospheric refraction, so when you see the bottom of the solar disk touching the horizon, in reality the whole solar disk is actually below the horizon (but that only makes a difference of half a degree or two minutes in time plus 1 minute for the time between the centre of the solar disk being on the horizon and the top of the solar disk being on the horizon). So 21 minutes rather than 24 as in the approximate calculation above. I wonder how the Flat Earthers explain that one?
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 31, 2023 6:24:20 GMT
Truss Peers
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 31, 2023 7:47:59 GMT
"The Uk has been spending all its money on aircraft carriers pretty pointless for the defence of the Uk, or Europe" Except if Putin extends his wars of aggression to the Baltic and the Balkans having significant anti aviation and naval platforms would actually be very helpful. As Putin is currently experiencing, modern ships are very vulnerable to modern anti ship missiles. This isnt exactly new, the same dilemma applied in WW1 when Churchil wanted to attack the dardanelles by sea, and Fisher as first sea lord was adamant it was impossible. The worst scenario is where ships face an equivalent barrage from shore. Our carriers therefore require a fleet of destroyers armed with air defence to protect the carriers, and we dont have them. Even if we did, its always just a matter of time before a shot gets through. As witness the air barrage on Ukraine now, where they shoot down MOST of the incoming missiles. The cariers are useful only where there is no land based alternative, and any combined european operation is likely to have a land based alternative. if we wanted to defend Taiwan they might be useful, but is britain seriously going to do that alone, or even with the combined european navies? The carriers were needed to attack the Falklands because there was no land based alternative. But the navy spent the entire time shit scared the Argies might rustle up some more missiles against them. If Argentina had been properly equipped with anti ship missiles, we could never have retaken the Falklands, and even as things stood our own military advice was that we stood a high risk of failure. It was the political imperative that Thatcher could not afford to lose which made the decision to counter attack.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 31, 2023 7:49:32 GMT
I did think it was odd that you had only posted 13 times in the last 8 days, and didn't manage a single post for five whole days from Christmas Eve. Very unlike you! Who knows - perhaps you're not being entirely honest about just how mild it was..... Good to be missed. Nothing whatever to do with being ill or not.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 31, 2023 7:53:48 GMT
One is reminded of the 1930s where appeasement of the fascist regimes was the order of the day. In the end, appeasement only results in you paying a higher price when you do eventually have to stand firm. If Franco had been stopped in Spain we might not have had the Sudetenland and if Hitler had been stopped in the Sudetenland he might have been less ready to invade Poland. Ukraine is this century's Sudetenland; Hmm. Cant help thinking Putin has had a clear and steady aim of recapturing Ukraine, and that has never changed. Timing has just been about amassing sufficient force to do the job. Had NATO formally adopted Ukraine and then placd troops there, then we might have stopped the invasion, but short of this no. Similarly, Hitler had a goal and various factors might simply have affected timing, not outcome.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 31, 2023 7:58:53 GMT
Just 22% and yet both of our largest parties continue with the canard that somehow it can be made a success. Bonkers. Not so bonkers if you consider that to win a general election you might only need support of 25% of those eligible to vote.
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