18-OCT 2023 : LAB 44% / CON 28% / LDM 9% / REF 7%

[barbara]

Dec 15, 2023 9:53:59 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Morning all. The Politico poll of polls for the whole year has, despite everything, the Labour lead down by 2% from the start of the year. Both LD and Reform have gained 2%, Greens 1% and the SNP down 2%

www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

Whilst I would normally think the Green vote would be high at 6%, and likely to get squeezed by 2-3% come polling day, this time round I'm not so sure given Starmer's policy stance. Similarly with the LDs and Reform, I can see their VI holding up in a GE to be in line with what the polls are showing us.

While Sunak and Co probably take some comfort from the slight narrowing of Labour's lead, place hope in Reform and DK's VI returning to the fold come polling day, it is still looking like that at the least Starmer will acquire a comfortable majority. The Tory advantage in the media, and dirty campaigning, will help to mitigate the level of loss for the Tories but I doubt it will be enough to avert defeat. The economy and negative perceptions of their competence are most likely to doom them.

I think we need to wait till we've seen Labour's manifesto. They're keeping their powder dry to minimise opportunities for the right wing media to trash it and avoid the Tories pinching the best. I anticipate and hope that it might be better and more inspiring than sceptics think it will be.

[Deleted]

Dec 15, 2023 21:28:15 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Dec 15, 2023 16:52:26 GMT colin said:

How much choice do they have, given the risk in delaying, is one question Col.. According to some the pace of the energy transition is such that if we leave it too long there’s a possibility we could get seriously left behind. Another question is how soon can some of the investment pay off, to help fund the next phase? (A third, is that if they are going to raise some money via tax, what’s the best way to do it without harming growth or alienating too many voters?)

I don't know about risk of delaying and I don't think they will. But 6years ( to 2030) X £28 bn is a lot of money so when Con start asking how they will fund it , presumably they will have an answer .

Yes tax is going to be a difficult issue for both sides. Con claiming they just cut taxes in the autumn statement with cuts coming in spring -Lab responding that frozen thresholds have wiped that out & more. Can Lab then admit to taxes for the Green spend ?

Actually I'm not sure what electoral mileage infrastructure has when cost of living issues are uppermost concern for most families. Flash UK PMIs for December look like highest since June. But given an Autumn GE there isn't much time to see real economic effects. And who is going to believe a Tory promise ?

There's a fascinating two pages in today's Times ( I think you read ?) on campaign possibilities and tactics.

Looks like its going to kick off in the New Year -but with Lab's nag already way down the course Sunak has some work to do.

2024 has the potential to be a very significant year on so many fronts. Stimulating and frightening at the same time !

[jib]

Port Talbot; Mixed feelings about this one, but with the hard left Corbynite Sharon Graham involved, even the Electric Arc Furnaces could disappear! No wonder Drakeford is walking.

Tata Steel: Unions infighting grows ahead of jobs meeting

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67727466

[steve]

jib
Drakerford's wife of 45 years has recently died, she was required to shield during the covid pandemic and Drakeford lived in the garden shed for a year to protect her , he's 69 it could simply be that he's had enough.

[steve]

The IDF's inability to differentiate between innocent civilians and combatants on display as they wrongly identified three hostages as a threat and tragically vkilled them.

Being young and male appears to be sufficient grounds to shoot in Gaza .
The incident hasn't played well for the Netanyahu regime in Israel

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/dec/16/israel-gaza-war-live-updates-hamas-hostages-idf-protest-tel-aviv-news-palestine-us-biden-ceasefire-un

[crossbat11]

barbara

Labour's caution about declaring its fiscal and policy hand too early is understandable and is probably derived from painful past memories of John Smith shadow pre-election budgets and floating blimps on advertising hoardings broadcasting tax bombshells and double whammys to come. Saatchi and Saatchi may ride again and, so Tory strategists and diehard supporters would hope, herds of frightened horses would stampede home again.

But will they this time? I wonder if we're heading into an election where the arguments about tax and spend and financial prudence are relegated behind more emotional and visceral political sentiments. In other words not one of your choose your favourite and most trusted Bank Manager elections but one where disdain for the incumbents and the way they have governed supersede arguments about budget deficit tolerance levels and taxation regimes.

This is why I think that the Tories are in such desperate political trouble. Their handling of the economy, often thought to be their trump electoral card, is not fertile terrain for them this time around, and it didn't save Major in 1997 despite his case being stronger then that is now for Sunak, but I think the accumulation of examples of serial misgovernance, on a variety of fronts, is so entrenched in voters minds, that the whole Tory brand has become beyond salvation and redemption.

Disdain and ridicule now stalks this Tory Government, evidenced not just in the opinion polls, but also glimpsed whenever public opinion is able to express itself in TV political programme audiences and by elections.

Put another way, traditional levers that might normally be expected to be pulled to their favour in election years just aren't there for the Tories now.

They will be pulled, no doubt, by both them and their friends, but like the poor old signalman in a disconnected signal box, nothing moves. The direction of the rails are set and the train keeps rolling to its inevitable destination.

[shevii]

Dec 16, 2023 9:09:51 GMT jib said:

Port Talbot; Mixed feelings about this one, but with the hard left Corbynite Sharon Graham involved, even the Electric Arc Furnaces could disappear! No wonder Drakeford is walking.

Um- Graham beat the "hard left Corbynite" and stays clear of commenting on anything not directly related to her union's attempts for better pay and conditions.

Sometimes that involves politics to put pressure on the Labour Party over funding (Ie they want to see value for money for their donations) or Labour councils, Scottish parliament etc but it's all based on securing the best deal for her members.

Whether she's right on this one I wouldn't know but that would come down to tactics not playing revolutionary politics.  Unite seem to have done pretty well for their members the last few years, although it's possible I'm just falling for her propaganda and these pay deals they are winning would have been achieved anyway.

[domjg]

barbara I've come to the conclusion of late that it's an article of faith among some on the left that if the Labour party have actually got themselves into a position where they could form the government then they're de facto not Labourey enough as if they're a church selling it's principles for power. The only thing you can draw from that is that it's more important for them that the party be a church like entity that satisfies their internal vision than an organisation capable of having power to deliver actual change that could help real people. It's personal, dare I say, religious satisfaction over prosaic, messy governing reality.

I mention religion as I grew up in an irritatingly religious Catholic household where faith and 'if God wills it' were always more important than reason and practicality and this attitude reminds me of that. Perhaps that's why I'm so allergic to it.

The attitude is often 'We must show the people the light of God/socialism and if they don't bite then oh well, inshallah, the country is still going down the toilet but at least I retained my religious/ideological integrity and my personal feeling of righteousness was always the most important thing anyway.'

There was such celebration when Corbyn didn't become PM in 2017. The tories would never have celebrated any defeat no matter how slim. You can say what you like about them but they know that without power or the prospect of it you are, well just a church and all you can is pray.

[leftieliberal]

Dec 16, 2023 7:01:44 GMT steve said:

@isa
Indeed but my favourite 1950's sci-fi movie will always be Forbidden planet.
Inspired by Shakespeare's " the tempest" and with the wonderful Walter Pigeon , Anne Francis and Leslie Nielsen as heroic lead prior to his fame as a comic actor.

It's perfect.


View Attachment

Even better is Bob Carlton's musical stage play "Return to the Forbidden Planet" which takes the basic story of the 1950s film and adds some of the best pop music written during the 1950s and 1960s. I saw it in London when they had a video recording of Patrick Moore as narrator.

[Deleted]

Dec 16, 2023 10:01:13 GMT crossbat11 said:

Put another way, traditional levers that might normally be expected to be pulled to their favour in election years just aren't there for the Tories now.

They will be pulled, no doubt, by both them and their friends, but like the poor old signalman in a disconnected signal box, nothing moves. The direction of the rails are set and the train keeps rolling to its inevitable destination.

An article in the Financial Times this week suggests this is certainly the case with immigration, where the Conservatives now appear to be just talking to themselves.

The great immigration miscalculation

Edit ... none paywall version here

[crossbat11]

Dec 16, 2023 10:25:03 GMT domjg said:

barbara I've come to the conclusion of late that it's an article of faith among some on the left that if the Labour party have actually got themselves into a position where they could form the government then they're de facto not Labourey enough as if they're a church selling it's principles for power. The only thing you can draw from that is that it's more important for them that the party be a church like entity that satisfies their internal vision than an organisation capable of having power to deliver actual change that could help real people. It's personal, dare I say, religious satisfaction over prosaic, messy governing reality.

I mention religion as I grew up in an irritatingly religious Catholic household where faith and 'if God wills it' were always more important than reason and practicality and this attitude reminds me of that. Perhaps that's why I'm so allergic to it.

The attitude is often 'We must show the people the light of God/socialism and if they don't bite then oh well, inshallah, the country is still going down the toilet but at least I retained my religious/ideological integrity and my personal feeling of righteousness was always the most important thing anyway.'

There was such celebration when Corbyn didn't become PM in 2017. The tories would never have celebrated any defeat no matter how slim. You can say what you like about them but they know that without power or the prospect of it you are, well just a church and all you can is pray.

Remember too that the consolation of religious faith is largely based on the certainty that however bad things get on earth, your righteousness whilst fleetingly upon it will be rewarded in another life.

[somerjohn]

lakelandlass: "An article in the Financial Times this week suggests this is certainly the case with immigration, where the Conservatives now appear to be just talking to themselves."

A fascinating graph: thanks.

For me, the interesting thing about it is the pattern over time of the salience of immigration.

1. It rises in the runup to the 2010 GE, then falls until 2013.
2. It rises from 2013 until the referendum in 2016.
3. It then falls steadily until 2021, when it turns up again and starts rising steeply (especially for Tories).

My conclusion? Concern about immigration is largely a result of potstirring by right wing media and politicians. Left to their own experience, people aren't in general much bothered about it. As, non-coincidentally, was the case with EU membership, of course.

[domjg]

Dec 16, 2023 11:08:22 GMT crossbat11 said:

Dec 16, 2023 10:25:03 GMT domjg said:

barbara I've come to the conclusion of late that it's an article of faith among some on the left that if the Labour party have actually got themselves into a position where they could form the government then they're de facto not Labourey enough as if they're a church selling it's principles for power. The only thing you can draw from that is that it's more important for them that the party be a church like entity that satisfies their internal vision than an organisation capable of having power to deliver actual change that could help real people. It's personal, dare I say, religious satisfaction over prosaic, messy governing reality.

I mention religion as I grew up in an irritatingly religious Catholic household where faith and 'if God wills it' were always more important than reason and practicality and this attitude reminds me of that. Perhaps that's why I'm so allergic to it.

The attitude is often 'We must show the people the light of God/socialism and if they don't bite then oh well, inshallah, the country is still going down the toilet but at least I retained my religious/ideological integrity and my personal feeling of righteousness was always the most important thing anyway.'

There was such celebration when Corbyn didn't become PM in 2017. The tories would never have celebrated any defeat no matter how slim. You can say what you like about them but they know that without power or the prospect of it you are, well just a church and all you can is pray.

Remember too that the consolation of religious faith is largely based on the certainty that however bad things get on earth, your righteousness whilst fleetingly upon it will be rewarded in another life.

In my experience of the seriously religious, it's also often the certainty of righteous superiority over one's fellows.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 16, 2023 11:25:50 GMT domjg said:

Dec 16, 2023 11:08:22 GMT crossbat11 said:

Remember too that the consolation of religious faith is largely based on the certainty that however bad things get on earth, your righteousness whilst fleetingly upon it will be rewarded in another life.

In my experience of the seriously religious, it's also often the certainty of righteous superiority over one's fellows.

oh the irony 

[domjg]

Dec 16, 2023 11:24:21 GMT somerjohn said:

lakelandlass: "An article in the Financial Times this week suggests this is certainly the case with immigration, where the Conservatives now appear to be just talking to themselves."

A fascinating graph: thanks.

For me, the interesting thing about it is the pattern over time of the salience of immigration.

1. It rises in the runup to the 2010 GE, then falls until 2013.
2. It rises from 2013 until the referendum in 2016.
3. It then falls steadily until 2021, when it turns up again and starts rising steeply (especially for Tories).

My conclusion? Concern about immigration is largely a result of potstirring by right wing media and politicians. Left to their own experience, people aren't in general much bothered about it. As, non-coincidentally, was the case with EU membership, of course.

"Concern about immigration is largely a result of potstirring by right wing media and politicians. Left to their own experience, people aren't in general much bothered about it"

- Absolutely, I've always thought this. The right wing media, amplified by the BBC attempt to create a siege mentality in people's minds that would not occur simply due to their daily experience.

[jib]

Dec 16, 2023 9:48:16 GMT steve said:

The IDF's inability to differentiate between innocent civilians and combatants on display as they wrongly identified three hostages as a threat and tragically vkilled them.

Being young and male appears to be sufficient grounds to shoot in Gaza .
The incident hasn't played well for the Netanyahu regime in Israel

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/dec/16/israel-gaza-war-live-updates-hamas-hostages-idf-protest-tel-aviv-news-palestine-us-biden-ceasefire-un

Meanwhile, thank heavens the authorities across our Western democracies are alive to the Hamas Terrorist threat.

Seven arrested in Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands over suspected terrorism plots

www.reuters.com/world/europe/copenhagen-police-danish-intelligence-make-arrests-suspicion-preparations-attack-2023-12-14/

[steve]

Lakeland Lass

The Tories have often used othering , the fear of strangers for their election success, the xenophobia of brexitanians was based on the same principle.

The Tories obsession with refugees in dinghies is based on the same principle of eliciting misguided fear.

[pjw1961]

Dec 15, 2023 16:42:55 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Dec 15, 2023 16:25:20 GMT graham said:

Not historically accurate. In 1983 Labour lost over 3 million votes compared with 1979 with its GB vote share dropping to 28.3% from 37.6%.

And both times the right of the party acted against the leadership. The right within Tories also helped do for Major, and isn’t helping Sunak now. The right tend to be purists. 

Ridiculous. On both occasions the Labour Party moved sharply to the left and ordinary voters deserted them in droves. Those who can't draw the obvious lesson of that are being willfully blind.  

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 16, 2023 12:07:59 GMT pjw1961 said:

Dec 15, 2023 16:42:55 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

And both times the right of the party acted against the leadership. The right within Tories also helped do for Major, and isn’t helping Sunak now. The right tend to be purists. 

Ridiculous. On both occasions the Labour Party moved sharply to the left and ordinary voters deserted them in droves. Those who can't draw the obvious lesson of that are being willfully blind.  

Nothing ridiculous about it. That the voters deserted is not in question, but it followed the actions of the right. As I showed in the polling before, Foot was way ahead, and in the first few polls after his election he had a few polls that went even higher, then the Limehouse declaration and the fall began, which was well underway by the time the Falklands hit. 

What’s ridiculous is the idea that the right can act against the way that they do and it must inevitably have had no effect. 

[pjw1961]

Dec 16, 2023 7:01:44 GMT steve said:

@isa
Indeed but my favourite 1950's sci-fi movie will always be Forbidden planet.
Inspired by Shakespeare's " the tempest" and with the wonderful Walter Pigeon , Anne Francis and Leslie Nielsen as heroic lead prior to his fame as a comic actor.

It's perfect.


View Attachment

Watched it recently on DVD. It is indeed a wonderful film and I always thought a big influence on the original Star Trek. The special effect of the 'creature' attacked the force field stands up brilliantly considering that film was made over 60 years ago. The only thing that has aged badly is the sexism of the male characters toward Anne Francis. 

[steve]

Frog faced hate gimp Farage proves to be a whiney little snowflake.

youtu.be/nIwJClYQiFQ?si=MxIuxurDqeyQ8bgG

[pjw1961]

Dec 16, 2023 12:12:10 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Dec 16, 2023 12:07:59 GMT pjw1961 said:

Ridiculous. On both occasions the Labour Party moved sharply to the left and ordinary voters deserted them in droves. Those who can't draw the obvious lesson of that are being willfully blind.  

Nothing ridiculous about it. That the voters deserted is not in question, but it followed the actions of the right. As I showed in the polling before, Foot was way ahead, and in the first few polls after his election he had a few polls that went even higher, then the Limehouse declaration and the fall began, which was well underway by the time the Falklands hit. 

And if a left wing Labour Party was so popular why did so many voters immediately switch to the SDP/Liberal Alliance? Ask yourself that. 

[steamdrivenandy]

Oh tell me it isn't so.

Something's just popped up on my FB page suggesting that Lord Croft of Barnacle has been staggering around a certain south coast resort.

Surely he's not gone over to the other side?

[pjw1961]

steve posted a few of the local by-election results, but slightly surprised he didn't cash in on the full extent of what was a good night for them. Seven seats were up for grabs and the results were:

Liberal Democrats held 3, gained 2 = 5; Conservatives held 2, lost 2 = 2.

(P.s. Before Mercian says Labour are doing badly in not picking up any of these, this was a crop of largely semi-rural seats with Labour not in contention.)

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 16, 2023 12:15:17 GMT pjw1961 said:

Dec 16, 2023 12:12:10 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Nothing ridiculous about it. That the voters deserted is not in question, but it followed the actions of the right. As I showed in the polling before, Foot was way ahead, and in the first few polls after his election he had a few polls that went even higher, then the Limehouse declaration and the fall began, which was well underway by the time the Falklands hit. 

And if a left wing Labour Party was so popular why did so many voters immediately switch to the SDP/Liberal Alliance? Ask yourself that. 

Well that isn’t in dispute either is it, Labour and Tories are a broad church, and if the right create an opportunity for a split, it may split the vote, same with UKIP and Tories. But it still lets the Tories in, when prior to the split Labour were doing well. 

Similarly Labour vote increased markedly in 2017 but the right did not then unite with the left to defeat the Tories.

[pjw1961]

Dec 16, 2023 12:23:14 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Dec 16, 2023 12:15:17 GMT pjw1961 said:

And if a left wing Labour Party was so popular why did so many voters immediately switch to the SDP/Liberal Alliance? Ask yourself that. 

Well that isn’t in dispute either is it, Labour and Tories are a broad church, and if the right create an opportunity for a split, it may split the vote, same with UKIP and Tories. But it still lets the Tories in, when prior to the split Labour were doing well. 

Similarly Labour vote increased markedly in 2017 but the right did not then unite with the left to defeat the Tories.

You are missing the point. Anybody can set up a party, but it is the voters who decide whether or not to vote for it. Many parties get nowhere (see Change UK for example). The SDP/Liberal Alliance did well in 1983 because Labour was seen as extreme as, to a lesser extent, was Thatcher.

Incidentally, post election studies showed that more Alliance voters favoured the Conservatives as second choice than did Labour, so far from 'letting the Tories in', had the Alliance not existed, Thatcher's land side would have been even larger than it actually was.  Foot, by the way, had even lower ratings as a potential PM than Corbyn ever did!

The Conservatives decision to lurch the right may well see them get a similar drubbing in 2024. The lesson is that the the voting public are not where the extremes of left and right wish they were. It really is that simple. 

[crossbat11]

Dec 16, 2023 12:20:16 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

Oh tell me it isn't so.

Something's just popped up on my FB page suggesting that Lord Croft of Barnacle has been staggering around a certain south coast resort.

Surely he's not gone over to the other side?

It appears that the maudlin' minstrel has been busking on Hastings Pier again, going through his catalogue of Donovan classics.

Is Danny aware of his surprise sea front appearance, I wonder?

[steamdrivenandy]

Dec 16, 2023 12:47:12 GMT crossbat11 said:

Dec 16, 2023 12:20:16 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

Oh tell me it isn't so.

Something's just popped up on my FB page suggesting that Lord Croft of Barnacle has been staggering around a certain south coast resort.

Surely he's not gone over to the other side?

It appears that the maudlin' minstrel has been busking on Hastings Pier again, going through his catalogue of Donovan classics.

Is Danny aware of his surprise sea front appearance, I wonder?

We're both wrong CB, it was November 2019. 

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 16, 2023 12:42:46 GMT pjw1961 said:

Dec 16, 2023 12:23:14 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Well that isn’t in dispute either is it, Labour and Tories are a broad church, and if the right create an opportunity for a split, it may split the vote, same with UKIP and Tories. But it still lets the Tories in, when prior to the split Labour were doing well. 

Similarly Labour vote increased markedly in 2017 but the right did not then unite with the left to defeat the Tories.

You are missing the point. Anybody can set up a party, but it is the voters who decide whether or not to vote for it. Many parties get nowhere (see Change UK for example). The SDP/Liberal Alliance did well in 1983 because Labour was seen as extreme as, to a lesser extent, was Thatcher.

Incidentally, post election studies showed that more Alliance voters favoured the Conservatives as second choice than did Labour, so far from 'letting the Tories in', had the Alliance not existed, Thatcher's land side would have been even larger than it actually was.  Foot, by the way, had even lower ratings as a potential PM than Corbyn ever did!

The Conservatives decision to lurch the right may well see them get a similar drubbing in 2024. The lesson is that the the voting public are not where the extremes of left and right wish they were. It really is that simple. 

I haven’t missed your point. I accepted your point, that those voters chose to vote for it. My point, was that the right of the party would rather set up that opportunity and hence let Tories in. 

Regarding your claim,  you’ve made it before without a source, but even it were the case after the event, and people have been known to revise views later, the reality at the time was that Labour were doing well but then immediately the split happened, their polling went south, where before if anything it had been slightly increasing. 

This is an important point. These splits tend to happen, or increase, when the left are doing quite well. This in turn is because the right of the party are not so soft left, as they claim, but are more fundamentally opposed to the left than they claim. They are the opposite of the left on key left-wing policies like full employment, cheap housing, state ownership of utilities etc., key aspects of left wing approaches toward equality.

They have overlap with the left, in that they agree on more money for public services, and like to just dwell on that bit, but in the other things economically they are closer to the Tories, because like the Tories, they do not want that greater economic equality. Which is why they were ok with Blair doing even more privatisations, tuition fees, ramping house prices etc.

It’s why they admire Thatch, for achieving her goals, they say. But they don’t admire others for achieving their goals. Like Cameron shrinking the public services, or Corbyn, who according to some of them achieved his goal of getting us out the EU. They dislike them for those things.

The right of the party in contrast to the left are fundamentally more small-state, they might put more taxpayer money into services but might prefer them privately owned, they tend to be in the 8% who still are against nationalising some of those utilities. They don’t want full employment, they want the wages of the low-paid subject to being driven down by immigration to “lower prices” as they say. They want more and more state power hived off to supranational organisations. Consequently they are liable to act against the left before acting against Tories. Splitting the party is a handy way to achieve that aim. Then when they are back in control they insist the left unite with them to defeat the Tories!

(regarding where the voting public are, a fair amount of politics is about forcing an agenda through despite where the public are. Even a majority of Tories are in favour of some nationalisations now. Which is why you get minority factions taking over or fighting over control of parties, parties playing to swing voters, and the media resorting to attacking personally instead when people like the actual policies).

[Deleted]

Dec 16, 2023 12:12:54 GMT pjw1961 said:

Dec 16, 2023 7:01:44 GMT steve said:

@isa
Indeed but my favourite 1950's sci-fi movie will always be Forbidden planet.
Inspired by Shakespeare's " the tempest" and with the wonderful Walter Pigeon , Anne Francis and Leslie Nielsen as heroic lead prior to his fame as a comic actor.

It's perfect.


View Attachment

Watched it recently on DVD. It is indeed a wonderful film and I always thought a big influence on the original Star Trek. The special effect of the 'creature' attacked the force field stands up brilliantly considering that film was made over 60 years ago. The only thing that has aged badly is the sexism of the male characters toward Anne Francis. 

I have it on Blu-ray. And a treat for the eyes (and ears, the electronic music soundtrack is terrific) it is, too. Agree all your comments. Would just add a shout-out for Robby the Robot, who nearly steals the show. A very memorable creation he is, too. He actually appears intact (although with a much darker character) in an episode of 'Lost in Space', whilst his top half, attached to a base unit, crops up in a 'Columbo' episode in the mid '70s.