18-OCT 2023 : LAB 44% / CON 28% / LDM 9% / REF 7%

[domjg]

Dec 14, 2023 9:42:39 GMT Rafwan said:

Dec 14, 2023 9:04:41 GMT neilj said:

Of course same as people would want motherhood and apple pie, but it's the specifics that matter
For example people in polling invariably say they want better services. But in polling they will also say they want tax cuts.
There is a contradiction there, indeed if there wasn't the tories wouldn't get any votes

Hope this doesn’t sound too peevish, but I think you diminish my remarks. It is not like motherhood and apple pie. It is up to us to show how Labour will shift things in that direction and show that taxation (for example) will actually lead to this.

People who think Labour should announce a raft of more Labourey policies right now seem to labour (pardon the pun) under the delusion that if they do suddenly the scales will fall from the eyes of all those erstwhile tory voters and they'll see the light. That never happens, in part because the media they consume will twist them out of all recognition before they even hit the awareness of these people.

We can get to a more just, 'socialist' place but it will need to be done incrementally and with guile without waking up too many of the still very dangerous dragons along the way. 

[neilj]

Dec 14, 2023 10:47:10 GMT Rafwan said:

neilj

I don’t suggest for one moment that it will be easy. Just that it is a very worthwhile aim and we should keep pushing for it.

Let's look at housing, this is currently the Labour position, I think it's a good start and very different to tory policy

Mandatory targets to build 300,000 homes per year under a Labour government - as well as updating planning laws to help local authorities have more say in what is, and built where.

Build more social housing for people to rent. Reduce social housing being sold through right to buy - while making sure that new social housing is built in their place

Renters’ Charter, offering an end to no-fault evictions, the right for renters to have pets, to make reasonable alterations to a property, introduce a four-month notice period for landlords - and bring in an end to automatic evictions for rent arrears.

Deliver a "National Warm Homes Plan". Within that, it plans to make sure that every home meets an EPC C standard within a decade.

Abolish UK leasehold laws

[shevii]

Dec 13, 2023 22:36:31 GMT Dave said:

Dec 13, 2023 9:32:44 GMT shevii said:

The election is definitely won already is it? I hope so, but I'm not arrogant enough to believe that it is a nailed on certainty.  It has to be worked for.  

I like you as a poster, but if Labour do win it will be because millions of us got off our arses and voted for them and got this rankest, most horrible of governments out whilst allowing you the luxury of keeping your political purism.  In addition, it appears that this line of yours I've quoted seems to be or come close to encouraging people who would otherwise vote Labour, to not vote for them.  Such a call repeated often enough in the right places, by those with similar opinions as yours will not have an iota of effect on the Tory vote but would surely suppress the Labour vote.   That means in effect such calls are doing the Tories' job for them and helping increase their chances of staying in power.  Genuine question: would you be happy with that outcome? 

By all means encourage others to vote for who they actually want to vote for, but please own the potential consequences of that call. Labour are the only alternative government to the Tories.  It's either them, or the Tories.  End of.  They will only win if millions of us do get of our aforementioned arses.  You'd better hope that we do that otherwise we will have another Tory government and if we do, then not that it matters, but I'd not be interested in hearing any moaning about them from those who have in effect helped their cause.  

This post might seem strong in tone, but it merely reflects the frustration I have at seeing a chance after 13 long years, of getting rid of this mob, and being absolutely determined to play my part in doing that to see others talk as you talk.  Another genuine question: how much do you want them out?  

Well I like your posts too apart from the West Ham propaganda obviously (smiley).

If the polls do narrow considerably then it becomes a different discussion (but as I say my vote and people in 80% of the constituencies in the country doesn't matter what they do even if the 20% that do changes over time). A Green or alternative vote in a Labour stronghold won't let a Tory in and if Labour is on for a 200 seats majority then a Green vote in any of the Bristol seats, for example, has a pecking order of Bristol West (now Central) not going to let in a Tory candidate under any circumstances and, although boundary changes and a Lib Dem presence make it hard to calculate with any accuracy, it feels like the remaining seats would have to be pretty much 50:50 between Greens and Labour for a Tory to come through the middle. Even if they did that would be a 199 Lab majority instead of 200.  So were you to tell everyone in Bristol to vote Labour to get rid of the Tories then you'd be perpetuating the two party system and not giving alternative viewpoints and opinions the chance to express themselves.

I know the electorate doesn't tend to be that sophisticated and it's only brexit that has produced significant variations in swings across the country but as individuals there's perhaps little more than 100 seats where not voting Labour and voting for a Green/Left alternative is letting the Tories in and on current polling those 100 seats will be a totally different 100 seats from the marginal ones that Labour needs to win to form a government. I think a lot of LOC on this forum want to see significant change be it improvements to public services, Green agenda, wealth inequality reversed and in my humble opinion Starmer is more likely to sit up and take note if there is a strong Green vote that he can't just ignore when another election might be closer.

[graham]

Not sure we will see a by election in Blackpool. Benton may simply string things out by appealing etc. If so no Commons vote to suspend until February which would be followed by a six week Recall petition. Unless he resigns, I doubt we will see a by election before May - if at all.

[Dave]

Dec 14, 2023 11:24:49 GMT shevii said:

If the polls do narrow considerably then it becomes a different discussion ...

So it sounds as if you would countenance voting for Labour if the polls narrowed considerably. I wonder what your tipping point for that is.  Would the polls have to narrow to 15%, 12%, 10%, 8%, 5% before you'd decide that you might have to vote Labour?  Would you take into account the possibility that the opinion polls were out as they've been before?  Would you allow for for the possibility of a very-late-in-the-day late swing to the incumbents?


Reading that back, some of that looks facetious. It's not meant to be Shevil. I'm just wondering about the calculations that may unfold as an election nears.  Hopefully, Labour will be 25% ahead and we can all do as we want I'll still be voting Labour of course.


I think that you and I pretty much want the same things for the peoples of our nations. It's how we get there that causes minor differences.  And I suppose that first phrase in your post that I reacted to last night is what 'separates' us - you called getting rid of the Tories a priority whereas as I said, I think it's the priority.  Might seem quite technical but that difference for me is the biggie and my focus.

Good post by you on PR/ FPTP by the way.  It's only its last line that I disagree with.  I think PR in whatever form will come.  Most likely with a sitting Labour government struggling before a GE and playing that card.  It wouldn't be the nicest way of it coming about, but as with me voting for a centrist Starmer, it's a means to a (gradualist) end as far as I'm concerned.


Barbara - got to say, those posts of yours a couple of pages back smashed it out of the park.  As for 40 year old Tories.  A neighbour of mine is apparently in the Tory party (he told my wife not me).  He's a decent lad for a Gooner.  42 I think.  I don't make out I know he's a party member but occasionally when he's complaining about this and that I will throw in a nonchalant, give-it-a-year-,-better-times-are-coming comment.  He doesn't argue back.     

[pjw1961]

Dec 14, 2023 11:43:18 GMT graham said:

Not sure we will see a by election in Blackpool. Benton may simply string things out by appealing etc. If so no Commons vote to suspend until February which would be followed by a six week Recall petition. Unless he resigns, I doubt we will see a by election before May - if at all.

I think the Rwanda bill guarantees that there won't be a May GE. The government will eventually be able to force it through parliament, but it will likely take until at least early March. Then they will want the deportations to start before a GE. Given there will be legal appeals against everything that can be appealed and the courts will take a while to hear them, it looks impossible to get the flights going in time for a May election. Therefore the Blackpool South by-election is likely to happen IMO. 

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Dec 14, 2023 9:20:11 GMT Rafwan said:

Dec 14, 2023 8:58:55 GMT mandolinist said:

Just a point of clarification; didn't athena tell us only the other day that she is a woman? Even if I have misremembered this, can you please explain why you assume they are male?

Very good point. I had thought carefully about this and had considered making my remarks “gender-free”. But I have a recollection of a post from athena some while back suggesting they were male. This was clearly an error on my part and I am afraid I completely missed the post you refer to. Very sorry. 

Isn't the chosen user name a bit of a gender give away?

[Rafwan]

Dec 14, 2023 12:02:58 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Dec 14, 2023 9:20:11 GMT Rafwan said:

Very good point. I had thought carefully about this and had considered making my remarks “gender-free”. But I have a recollection of a post from athena some while back suggesting they were male. This was clearly an error on my part and I am afraid I completely missed the post you refer to. Very sorry. 

Isn't the chosen user name a bit of a gender give away?

To the well-educated. (Blush)

[graham]

Dec 14, 2023 11:59:24 GMT pjw1961 said:

Dec 14, 2023 11:43:18 GMT graham said:

Not sure we will see a by election in Blackpool. Benton may simply string things out by appealing etc. If so no Commons vote to suspend until February which would be followed by a six week Recall petition. Unless he resigns, I doubt we will see a by election before May - if at all.

I think the Rwanda bill guarantees that there won't be a May GE. The government will eventually be able to force it through parliament, but it will likely take until at least early March. Then they will want the deportations to start before a GE. Given there will be legal appeals against everything that can be appealed and the courts will take a while to hear them, it looks impossible to get the flights going in time for a May election. Therefore the Blackpool South by-election is likely to happen IMO. 

I am not entirely persuaded that the Lords will let the Bill pass - though I am not holding my breath.  Sunak may seek a clash with the Lords as a basis for calling the election in March to be held in May. Labour might well prefer such a scenario to the alternative you outline. Whatever happens, the seat is unlikely to become vacant until well into March. The Government would not be obliged to move the writ immediately - indeed it could delay for several months based on available precedents.

[steve]

"Renters’ Charter, offering an end to no-fault evictions, the right for renters to have pets"

I've nothing against any of that but it can produce unusual results.

We were told by our letting agents that our current tenants were a couple with a teenage daughter , we popped in fairly recently to find they were actually a couple in their early twenties, needless to say no teenage daughter but they had turned the entire living room in the house into an indoor rabbit enclosure.

We didn't actually mind , but it's probably going to cost them in damage to the wooden flooring, but it would have been nice to know.

The rabbits Netherland dwarf rabbits were however incredibly cute.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Dec 14, 2023 12:09:52 GMT Rafwan said:

Dec 14, 2023 12:02:58 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Isn't the chosen user name a bit of a gender give away?

To the well-educated. (Blush)

Didn't Athena do a spell as left-back for West Ham United FC Women?

If I remember, on the old site there was someone with the user name Artemis - a number of people didn't pick up that she was a women either if I recall.

[Deleted]

@rafwan

“ What we all want is a fairer and more secure world where everyone is decently accommodated, healthy, educated, able to work and generally cared for. Who disagrees with that? It is for us to show that Starmer and Labour will bring this closer.”

You use “world” rather than “country”: do you intend that to be taken literally?

[Rafwan]

I have tried to send a grovelling apology by PM but I appear to have been blocked. Hardly surprising really.

[Rafwan]

Dec 14, 2023 12:19:05 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Dec 14, 2023 12:09:52 GMT Rafwan said:

To the well-educated. (Blush)

Didn't Athena do a spell as left-back for West Ham United FC Women?

If I remember, on the old site there was someone with the user name Artemis - a number of people didn't pick up that she was a women either if I recall.

Ok, rub it in. I deserve it…

[Rafwan]

Dec 14, 2023 12:20:35 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

@rafwan

“ What we all want is a fairer and more secure world where everyone is decently accommodated, healthy, educated, able to work and generally cared for. Who disagrees with that? It is for us to show that Starmer and Labour will bring this closer.”

You use “world” rather than “country”: do you intend that to be taken literally?

Not intentionally, though I do consider myself an internationalist 

[athena]

Dec 14, 2023 8:56:28 GMT domjg said:

It's not just about competence but also basic morality and willingness to adhere to the law and due process.

I'd agree that Lab has a better claim to be constitutionally responsible and perhaps I should have included that, but my post was already too long. I think there's a part of me that still can't quite believe some of the constitutional vandalism we've seen since Johnson came to power. The solution is a codified constitution, which is not something on Lab's policy radar.

[pjw1961]

Dec 14, 2023 12:11:45 GMT graham said:

Dec 14, 2023 11:59:24 GMT pjw1961 said:

I think the Rwanda bill guarantees that there won't be a May GE. The government will eventually be able to force it through parliament, but it will likely take until at least early March. Then they will want the deportations to start before a GE. Given there will be legal appeals against everything that can be appealed and the courts will take a while to hear them, it looks impossible to get the flights going in time for a May election. Therefore the Blackpool South by-election is likely to happen IMO. 

I am not entirely persuaded that the Lords will let the Bill pass - though I am not holding my breath.  Sunak may seek a clash with the Lords as a basis for calling the election in March to be held in May. Labour might well prefer such a scenario to the alternative you outline. Whatever happens, the seat is unlikely to become vacant until well into March. The Government would not be obliged to move the writ immediately - indeed it could delay for several months based on available precedents.

I don't doubt there will be a bit of 'ping-pong' with the Lords amending it and the Commons reversing the amendments, but in the end the Lords will fold on the grounds the unelected house shouldn't block the will of the elected house, even though in this case they could. This is another reason why the HoL needs to be replaced by something else. 

[athena]

Dec 14, 2023 8:58:55 GMT mandolinist said:

Just a point of clarification; didn't athena tell us only the other day that she is a woman? Even if I have misremembered this, can you please explain why you assume they are male?

I am indeed a woman (although obviously you've only got my word for that) and I chose an explicitly female username so that the appropriate singular pronoun would be obvious. crossbat11 makes the same mistake and I've never been sure whether it's deliberate rudeness, ignorance of my mythological namesake or just carelessness/casual sexism.

[athena]

Dec 14, 2023 9:23:36 GMT moby said:

Actually imo it's for those who want the 'tranformation' to get off their arses and make the revolution happen. We'll then see how the Brtish people respond.

I have a certain amount of sympathy for this point of view. I'm well aware that for the foreseeable future, party politics are vanishingly unlikely to deliver the fundamental changes I want to see, so I have thought about how I can most effectively use my voice and influence to make a difference. Fomenting revolution isn't my style nor my politics, but I volunteer my expertise, regionally and nationally, and I'm quite confident that I have more impact on more lives this way than I would if I devoted my energies to party politics. I could chide myself for not having the courage to do more and be more vocal, but I'm old enough to accept my limitations.

[Deleted]

Dec 14, 2023 12:31:44 GMT athena said:

Dec 14, 2023 8:58:55 GMT mandolinist said:

Just a point of clarification; didn't athena tell us only the other day that she is a woman? Even if I have misremembered this, can you please explain why you assume they are male?

I am indeed a woman (although obviously you've only got my word for that) and I chose an explicitly female username so that the appropriate singular pronoun would be obvious. crossbat11 makes the same mistake and I've never been sure whether it's deliberate rudeness, ignorance of my mythological namesake or just carelessness/casual sexism.

In Batty’s case it’s always best to assume rudeness as the primary factor. (He’s from the Middle Lands and that has darkened his character.)

[Rafwan]

I abhor rudeness and sexism (whether careless or casual). My error was borne of ignorance and inattention. It was deeply disrespectful. I am very sorry.

Edit. Original post now amended.

[Deleted]

I have longed to see PR in my lifetime and it is becoming less and less likely as time slips by like a very fast, slippery thing.

My only caveat is with regard to the Cameron/Clegg coalition which demonstrated just how powerful the influence of a leader could be and how attractive it was to the rank and file. That does seem to demonstrate how we, the voters, might not get what we expected from the people voted into power - in terms of expected partnerships.

[graham]

Dec 14, 2023 12:29:13 GMT pjw1961 said:

Dec 14, 2023 12:11:45 GMT graham said:

I am not entirely persuaded that the Lords will let the Bill pass - though I am not holding my breath.  Sunak may seek a clash with the Lords as a basis for calling the election in March to be held in May. Labour might well prefer such a scenario to the alternative you outline. Whatever happens, the seat is unlikely to become vacant until well into March. The Government would not be obliged to move the writ immediately - indeed it could delay for several months based on available precedents.

I don't doubt there will be a bit of 'ping-pong' with the Lords amending it and the Commons reversing the amendments, but in the end the Lords will fold on the grounds the unelected house shouldn't block the will of the elected house, even though in this case they could. This is another reason why the HoL needs to be replaced by something else. 

At the end of the day there is no point in the Lords having a delaying power if they never intend to use it. Moreover, if the power is not going to be used on an issue such as the Rwanda Bill, when will it ever be applied? It also happens to be at the stage of a Parliament when exercising this right would be particularly effective. In the past the Lords has backed down when the Opposition party was minded to do so. I am not sure that Labour will be inclined to bow down in that way under these circumstances. It might well prefer to have a row over the delaying power than allow any planes to take off.

[domjg]

Dec 14, 2023 12:28:32 GMT athena said:

Dec 14, 2023 8:56:28 GMT domjg said:

It's not just about competence but also basic morality and willingness to adhere to the law and due process.

I'd agree that Lab has a better claim to be constitutionally responsible and perhaps I should have included that, but my post was already too long. I think there's a part of me that still can't quite believe some of the constitutional vandalism we've seen since Johnson came to power. The solution is a codified constitution, which is not something on Lab's policy radar.

Agree, I think we've seen more than enough evidence in recent years of attempts to subvert democratic norms and systems all over the world to know that a non codified system is irresponsibly  dangerous. The old English exceptionalist 'honesty box' approach to conducting government doesn't cut it anymore. 

This country helped to create a solidly defensible constitution for post-war West Germany but of course it didn't occur that Britain should have one too. Surely no-one would try to subvert the system, we're British don't you know...

[crossbat11]

Dec 14, 2023 12:31:44 GMT athena said:

Dec 14, 2023 8:58:55 GMT mandolinist said:

Just a point of clarification; didn't athena tell us only the other day that she is a woman? Even if I have misremembered this, can you please explain why you assume they are male?

I am indeed a woman (although obviously you've only got my word for that) and I chose an explicitly female username so that the appropriate singular pronoun would be obvious. crossbat11 makes the same mistake and I've never been sure whether it's deliberate rudeness, ignorance of my mythological namesake or just carelessness/casual sexism.

All three, to be honest!

🤔😜

[neilj]

Yougov

'Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (12-13 Dec)

Con: 22% (no change from 6-7 Dec)
Lab: 44% (-1)
Reform UK: 11% (=)
Lib Dem: 10% (=)
Green: 7% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)'

[neilj]

Sums up tory priorities, two immigration ministers and even a Minister for 'Comnon Sense' but no Minister for Disabled People

[leftieliberal]

Dec 14, 2023 12:29:13 GMT pjw1961 said:

Dec 14, 2023 12:11:45 GMT graham said:

I am not entirely persuaded that the Lords will let the Bill pass - though I am not holding my breath.  Sunak may seek a clash with the Lords as a basis for calling the election in March to be held in May. Labour might well prefer such a scenario to the alternative you outline. Whatever happens, the seat is unlikely to become vacant until well into March. The Government would not be obliged to move the writ immediately - indeed it could delay for several months based on available precedents.

I don't doubt there will be a bit of 'ping-pong' with the Lords amending it and the Commons reversing the amendments, but in the end the Lords will fold on the grounds the unelected house shouldn't block the will of the elected house, even though in this case they could. This is another reason why the HoL needs to be replaced by something else. 

The Salisbury convention only applies to policies that are in the manifesto of an elected Government. As this Bill has serious constitutional implications, it would be quite reasonable for the Lords to say to the Government that they need to show that they have the support of the electorate for this. The difficulty in replacing the HoL with any elected house is that it is not clear which takes precedence. We don't want a system like the USA. Whilst I too favour replacing the Lords, it is not clear to me what its replacement should be, nor what the relative powers of the two houses should be.  

[Danny]

Dec 14, 2023 11:59:24 GMT pjw1961 said:

Dec 14, 2023 11:43:18 GMT graham said:

Not sure we will see a by election in Blackpool. Benton may simply string things out by appealing etc. If so no Commons vote to suspend until February which would be followed by a six week Recall petition. Unless he resigns, I doubt we will see a by election before May - if at all.

I think the Rwanda bill guarantees that there won't be a May GE. The government will eventually be able to force it through parliament, but it will likely take until at least early March. Then they will want the deportations to start before a GE. Given there will be legal appeals against everything that can be appealed and the courts will take a while to hear them, it looks impossible to get the flights going in time for a May election. Therefore the Blackpool South by-election is likely to happen IMO. 

I have always seen this as an issue the government would wish to use in the general election campaign. So it needs to be still in process at the time of the election. What they definitely needed to avoid was the whole thing being over before the election, whether it worked or did not work.

[Danny]

Dec 14, 2023 10:57:22 GMT neilj said:

Renters’ Charter, offering an end to no-fault evictions, the right for renters to have pets, to make reasonable alterations to a property, introduce a four-month notice period for landlords - and bring in an end to automatic evictions for rent arrears. Deliver a "National Warm Homes Plan". Within that, it plans to make sure that every home meets an EPC C standard within a decade.

Abolish UK leasehold laws

I am somewhat confused about the contradiction between 'four month notice period' and ' end no fault eviction'. Which is it? You cannot evict well behaved tenants, or you can by giving four months notice to depart?

As to ending automatic evictions for rent arrears, you mean someone who doesnt pay their rent can also still stay forever, or just what do you mean?

As to a national warm home plan, this presumably means improving home insulation. Which costs money. Which implies rent rises to pay for it. Do tenants really want that? Even if tenants definitiely do not want that, are we intending to force it upon them, make them pay more, because we need to cut national energy usage?

And how does this interact with poverty? Studies have shown that people tend to have a budget for heating. If you improve insulation, they opt to still spend as much, so still use as much energy, but be warmer for longer. By forcing insulation upon them you oblige them to pay the extra cost of that insulation, but you might thereby force them to live in a colder home because their heating budget just went on insulation.

Every measure making life tougher for landlords also means fewer people will opt to be landlords. Rising interest rates has just shifted the balance of retuns on ivestment away from investing in buy to let. While if a government really does do something about the housing shortage, we may expect that future property value rises will be halted. Plus, Thatcher created a surge in people entering buy to let as council houses got sold off. Many of those people are now rather elderly and want to realise their investments. So it seems likely a lot of people about now are looking to get out of this market, without a lot of new ones coming along.