steve
Member
Posts: 12,622
|
Post by steve on Dec 9, 2023 10:16:11 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by hireton on Dec 9, 2023 10:35:12 GMT
hireton First past the post. The last and Only time the Tories won a majority of the votes in England since 1945 was around seventy years ago. I think I'm right in saying that at the same time the Scottish Tories " in their iteration as" the unionist party" also came close to a majority of votes they certainly won the majority of seats. You might say this was a long time ago but it's the only time your assertion about England voters was true so it's entirely consistent. The last time the Tories ( or their predecessors) won a majority of seats in Scotland in a UK General Election was in 1955. Same voting system. |
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 9, 2023 10:35:59 GMT
Just some idle musings about the meaning of centrism in British politics and the mixture of bafflement and outrage that often greets the realisation that politicians who gravitate to this political position quite often have much in common with political opponents. Opponents as in politicians who are members of other political parties but who who happen to share many of the same views about politics, economics, our democracy and, well, life in general.
This is inevitable, isn't it, and why on earth should we be worried about it too? Centre-left parties like Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru etc will all have politicians within them who are really only separated by the trivia of small differences. Members of different political parties by accidents of birth and upbringing. Bound by vaguely similar notions of how society should be. Our centre right party will have politicians cut from the same rock too. Marginal political differences but belonging to a different tribe.
And the electorate is very similar. They largely congregate in the political centre, holding a collection of views that blur political party differences. A belief in well run public services, a benign but not intrusive state that provides a safety net, managed capitalism, fair but not punitive taxation, strong defence and security, law and order and freedom to live one's life as prosperously, securely and happily as possible. I believe most are keen too to have a thriving democracy. They value honesty and integrity too.
I have met few socialists or neo-liberal free marketeers in my everyday life, but lots and lots of slightly confused people who believe in a good deal of the above but have no clear idea about which group of politicians can get them there. Party voting loyalty has crumbled in many respects I now find.
So the spoils at the next election go to the group of politicians who can persuade enough of this majority section of the electorate that they occupy this vast and often neglected political terrain.
Starmer is dragging his party there I think. Some are kicking and screaming, and jumping ship as he does so, but he is reading the room better than any other politician in the UK right now, I think.
The voters are gathering around his flag now and hearing his calm voice above the ever madding crowd.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,336
|
Post by Danny on Dec 9, 2023 10:42:42 GMT
I suspect that Starmer might be trying to woo these voters with his stance of making Brexit work, but he'll have to work hard because by definition these are not tribal voters. Oh yes they are. But their tribe may be 'we hate politicians'. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,336
|
Post by Danny on Dec 9, 2023 10:49:01 GMT
That this ongoing Tory psychodrama seems likely to continue pompously to play out into 2024 I find quite remarkable. [/div][/quote]Tory USP in 2010 was 'we are better than the other lot' and we will slash spending and so save you all lots of money from slashed taxes' Their position and USP remains unchanged, and very likely will still be unchanged when they next win power. Their problem is that the electorate is currently not very receptive to these claims. But in 15 years it very likely will be. People will have forgotten what happened last time, be annoyed over whatever (inevitably) went wrong under labour, see that spending and taxes have risen and believe its time for another reversal. Neithe rparty has to cange policy at all for this osscilating change in government o happen. Though of course in 2010 con adopted euroscepticism and then brexit to get them over the line. Which has already been deducted from their expected total this time out. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,336
|
Post by Danny on Dec 9, 2023 10:52:29 GMT
The Governmenthas gone down the rabbit hole on this £290m of tax payers money down the drain and more to follow Could have had anothe 1/4 mile of HS2 for that money? |
|
|
|
Post by alec on Dec 9, 2023 10:59:55 GMT
Think it's worth keeping an eye on the NHS as a political issue in the coming weeks. I posted last night about the first weekly NHS Providers 'Winter Watch' bulletin, and some of the figures are really quite alarming. While the state of the NHS (talking here only of NHS England) isn't currently viewed as a crisis hot topic at present, there are some figures that do really jump out. This is weekly data, so it will be interesting to see how it bounces around from week to week, but ambulance arrivals were 7.7% up on the corresponding week last year (which was a bad season) and there are 1.5% fewer critical care beds than last year. 12,883 patients assessed as ready for discharge remained in hospital, which is clearly a drain on NHS resources, and with 101,000 general beds available, that's around 1 in 8 beds taken up unnecessarily. Overall bed occupancy is at 94.4%, which is very nearly 10% above the level deemed safe by NICE.
There are very few pressures from flu so far (234 beds occupied) and ten times this number with covid, so covid is still absorbing around 2.5% of beds, so at present a minor addition to the deep structural problems, but this is at the bottom of a trough.
The NHS is perilously fragile, and with what is shaping up to be a significant covid wave now brewing, there is absolutely no slack anywhere in the NHS to accommodate even a minor uptick in cases.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,622
|
Post by steve on Dec 9, 2023 11:23:29 GMT
hireton "The last time the Tories ( or their predecessors) won a majority of seats in Scotland in a UK General Election was in 1955. Same voting system." I just said that! I'm not trying to be difficult but I fail to see your point you point out that neither Wales or Scotland get what they voted for at a general , election they do at least get what they voted for at regional assembly level because of fairer voting methods. While in England the majority of voters haven't got what they voted for since 1955 and we have now no fairer voting alternative as the Tories have just removed it from mayoral elections and because of the disenfranchising impact of brexit. How precisely does that make the situation in England better?
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,336
|
Post by Danny on Dec 9, 2023 11:23:58 GMT
Think it's worth keeping an eye on the NHS as a political issue in the coming weeks. I posted last night about the first weekly NHS Providers 'Winter Watch' bulletin, and some of the figures are really quite alarming. Thats odd. I heard somen talking about the NHS this week saying its been very quiet so far this winter. Going very well. The NHS is performing well its prime role of rationing whatever care it can purchase for the budget it is allowed. If that means long waiting lists, well that is government policy. As to covid....  All looking good.... |
|
|
|
Post by alec on Dec 9, 2023 11:30:33 GMT
crossbat11 - "Just some idle musings about the meaning of centrism in British politics.." I'm steering well clear of these debates on the meaning of 'centrism', 'liberalism', 'right wing' etc etc. I'll only say something wrong and upset everyone. Of course, by not joining in, I risk being accused of being Anti-Semantic. It's tough on here sometimes.
|
|
|
|
Post by bardin1 on Dec 9, 2023 11:32:22 GMT
hireton "The last time the Tories ( or their predecessors) won a majority of seats in Scotland in a UK General Election was in 1955. Same voting system." I just said that! I'm not trying to be difficult but I fail to see your point you point out that neither Wales or Scotland get what they voted for at a general , election they do at least get what they voted for at regional assembly level because of fairer voting methods. While in England the majority of voters haven't got what they voted for since 1955 and we have now no fairer voting alternative as the Tories have just removed it from mayoral elections and because of that he disenfranchising impact of brexit. How precisely does that make the situation in England better? You do get what the government which won the election in England which English people voted in under the current system wants. In Scotland we are getting what the government which won the election in England which English people voted in under the current system wants, but we're not English and didn't vote for them |
|
|
|
Post by graham on Dec 9, 2023 12:26:11 GMT
hireton "The last time the Tories ( or their predecessors) won a majority of seats in Scotland in a UK General Election was in 1955. Same voting system." I just said that! I'm not trying to be difficult but I fail to see your point you point out that neither Wales or Scotland get what they voted for at a general , election they do at least get what they voted for at regional assembly level because of fairer voting methods. While in England the majority of voters haven't got what they voted for since 1955 and we have now no fairer voting alternative as the Tories have just removed it from mayoral elections and because of that he disenfranchising impact of brexit. How precisely does that make the situation in England better? You do get what the government which won the election in England which English people voted in under the current system wants. In Scotland we are getting what the government which won the election in England which English people voted in under the current system wants, but we're not English and didn't vote for them In February 1974 England voted Tory whilst Wales and Scotland voted Labour. We ended up with a minority Labour government Tories also won in England in 1964. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,622
|
Post by steve on Dec 9, 2023 12:35:29 GMT
bardin1Bizarre comment because we have an unrepresentative voting system that doesn't somehow make the minority opinion the majority.It makes the electoral system unrepresentative. It's akin to the regime's " law" declaring Rwanda safe it's like saying a dog is a cat because the law says it is. I appreciate there is a Scottish nationalist opinion that wishes to imply that the Westminster government is imposed on Scotland by the votes of the English, this implies somehow that the English must support whatever government at Westminster that has a majority of English seats , this is manifestly untrue and just supports the continuing tyranny of the minority. I would perhaps politely point out that you have a fairer voting system for the Scottish parliament because the "English controlled" Westminster parliament gifted it to you.
|
|
|
|
Post by EmCat on Dec 9, 2023 12:38:59 GMT
Trying to put myself into the mind of a Tory supporter. Why would I support moving around 300 asylum seekers from then UK to the " safe" country of Rwanda at a cost of £300 million and then pay for their upkeep in Rwanda for the following five years at a cost of umpteen more millions? It may be that the ones supporting it still think that, instead of around 300, it's actually "around 30,000". Or "all of them". Or something. Because they only hear the "stop the boats" and don't hear the "the solution will only deal with a fraction of the total" |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,622
|
Post by steve on Dec 9, 2023 12:42:51 GMT
graham In February 1974 the Tories won 37.9% of the vote no party in any constituent country in great Britain secured a majority of the votes and no country voted just labour. The Tories won 21 seats in Scotland in February 1974
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2023 13:05:01 GMT
hireton "The last time the Tories ( or their predecessors) won a majority of seats in Scotland in a UK General Election was in 1955. Same voting system." I just said that! I'm not trying to be difficult but I fail to see your point you point out that neither Wales or Scotland get what they voted for at a general , election they do at least get what they voted for at regional assembly level because of fairer voting methods. While in England the majority of voters haven't got what they voted for since 1955 and we have now no fairer voting alternative as the Tories have just removed it from mayoral elections and because of that he disenfranchising impact of brexit. How precisely does that make the situation in England better? You do get what the government which won the election in England which English people voted in under the current system wants. In Scotland we are getting what the government which won the election in England which English people voted in under the current system wants, but we're not English and didn't vote for them There are two points. Places such as London, with a larger population than Scotland, are often in the same position and the situation in Scotland is replicated throughout the UK, in constituencies of differing sizes. With FPTP we are all in the same daft boat. But, more importantly, why bang on about it here all the time? Hardly anyone on this forum seems likely to have voted Tory. It’s not our fault and there’s nothing that we can do about it except campaign for a better system. If what a majority of Scots people want us independence, again, I doubt if many here would want to stop it happening. So why not use your energies trying to achieve those ends and stop blaming posters here for something that isn’t their responsibility or fault and which, on their own, they can do bugger all about? It’s tedious. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Dec 9, 2023 13:10:37 GMT
Or and I know this is a wild idea , why not provide safe methods of transport, process asylum applications promptly and allow asylum seekers to legally work while you do so. Because that would make the UK an even more attractive destination thus increasing the numbers even further and putting more and more strain on the housing shortage, NHS and infrastructure such as sewage etc. |
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Dec 9, 2023 13:10:48 GMT
My jury has been out on Biden- sometimes thinking he does or says something good and sometimes bad and always being aware that he has a difficult political system to navigate.
Unfortunately after America became the only country to veto a ceasefire call at the UN (even the Tories abstained) I think he will go down in history as yet another American president who put American regional interests ahead of lives and in this case ethnic cleansing. Never seen the UN so definite about the Israeli government's abuses against international law and that Israel is heading down a path of displacement of an entire population, ethnic cleansing and genocide. America still providing Israel with arms.
People might say a vote at the UN doesn't make any difference and Biden staying on good terms with Netenyahu will allow him to moderate Israeli actions but it's very clear that that hasn't happened. By his inaction and support for the Israeli government Biden joins the rogue's gallery of US presidents- if anything he's become the worst because at least "fighting commies" or "war on terror" had some clearly defined argument that they were defending the free world even when the consequences made things worse for the people of those countries.
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Dec 9, 2023 13:30:16 GMT
I suspect that Starmer might be trying to woo these voters with his stance of making Brexit work, but he'll have to work hard because by definition these are not tribal voters. Oh yes they are. But their tribe may be 'we hate politicians'. I wouldn't put it quite so strongly, but I'm in that camp. There are some politicians I admire or have admired in most parties, but they're very much in the minority. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2023 13:32:22 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by hireton on Dec 9, 2023 14:30:59 GMT
graham In February 1974 the Tories won 37.9% of the vote no party in any constituent country in great Britain secured a majority of the votes and no country voted just labour. The Tories won 21 seats in Scotland in February 1974 The Tories won 21 seats out of 71 in Scotland in February 1974. This tweet pretty much sums up the view of Labour ( and the Lib Dems) about Scotland: |
|
|
|
Post by bardin1 on Dec 9, 2023 15:00:41 GMT
There are two points. Places such as London, with a larger population than Scotland, are often in the same position and the situation in Scotland is replicated throughout the UK, in constituencies of differing sizes. With FPTP we are all in the same daft boat. But, more importantly, why bang on about it here all the time? Hardly anyone on this forum seems likely to have voted Tory. It’s not our fault and there’s nothing that we can do about it except campaign for a better system. If what a majority of Scots people want us independence, again, I doubt if many here would want to stop it happening. So why not use your energies trying to achieve those ends and stop blaming posters here for something that isn’t their responsibility or fault and which, on their own, they can do bugger all about? It’s tedious. I was simply replying to Steve's point to correct what i thought was a misconception. I think the base of the discussion Westminster overruling the Scottish government on the gender Bil. That isn't going to happen in London, for example so it is not quite the same . I don't think I ever 'bang on' about independence here, as I'm aware it's a niche subject and would bore the pants off me if I was from another polity. I certainly never blame other posters. I blame the stupid FPTP system. I go back a long way on that - I was a Young Liberal back at Uni in Edinburgh in 1975 and wrote an essay arguing for PR and against FTP for my Politics course. Professor Cornford gave me a crap mark as he thought I had underestimated the benefits FPTP gave in terms of strong government Independence to me is only a means to the end of achieving a government which is close to the people, and which adequately represents local communities and cultures. |
|
|
|
Post by graham on Dec 9, 2023 15:30:27 GMT
graham In February 1974 the Tories won 37.9% of the vote no party in any constituent country in great Britain secured a majority of the votes and no country voted just labour. The Tories won 21 seats in Scotland in February 1974 Yes - but the will of England did not override the voters of Wales & Scotland at that election - indeed vice versa. The same was true of 1964. |
|
|
|
Post by graham on Dec 9, 2023 15:32:53 GMT
My jury has been out on Biden- sometimes thinking he does or says something good and sometimes bad and always being aware that he has a difficult political system to navigate. Unfortunately after America became the only country to veto a ceasefire call at the UN (even the Tories abstained) I think he will go down in history as yet another American president who put American regional interests ahead of lives and in this case ethnic cleansing. Never seen the UN so definite about the Israeli government's abuses against international law and that Israel is heading down a path of displacement of an entire population, ethnic cleansing and genocide. America still providing Israel with arms. People might say a vote at the UN doesn't make any difference and Biden staying on good terms with Netenyahu will allow him to moderate Israeli actions but it's very clear that that hasn't happened. By his inaction and support for the Israeli government Biden joins the rogue's gallery of US presidents- if anything he's become the worst because at least "fighting commies" or "war on terror" had some clearly defined argument that they were defending the free world even when the consequences made things worse for the people of those countries. Effectively the USA has become complicit in Israel's war crimes. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,569
|
Post by pjw1961 on Dec 9, 2023 15:49:03 GMT
Or and I know this is a wild idea , why not provide safe methods of transport, process asylum applications promptly and allow asylum seekers to legally work while you do so. Because that would make the UK an even more attractive destination thus increasing the numbers even further and putting more and more strain on the housing shortage, NHS and infrastructure such as sewage etc. The housing shortage and collapsing NHS and infrastructure are in reality a direct result of government policy since 2010. So logically we should deport all Tory MPs to Rwanda instead (they would actually be able to take that number). Clearly the MPs wouldn't mind since they are all agreed it is a safe country. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,692
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 9, 2023 15:50:55 GMT
“The end of grade inflation, a trial with school uniforms and obligatory maths examinations are amongst the measures pledged by President Macron’s government to combat falling school standards.
Gabriel Attal, the education minister, described the reforms as a “shock of knowledge”. They were unveiled after French pupils recorded what commentators called a “catastrophic” level in the latest Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa), which ranks countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
France, which was long proud of its state education system, now only registers average results, including in mathematics. The country once excelled in the subject, but now performs worse than the UK.
Attal, who has ambitions to succeed Macron as head of state in 2027, responded with a back-to-basics programme that involving jettisoning many modern trends in French education.
His announcement appalled left-wing unionists who said it would widen inequalities but pleased traditionalists who welcomed a “return of authority”.
The minister ordered examiners to stop inflating grades at the Baccalauréat, the national end-of-school examination. The policy, encouraged by his predecessors, led to a record 91 per cent pass rate year, although observers say real standards are dropping.”
Telegraph
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,569
|
Post by pjw1961 on Dec 9, 2023 15:54:41 GMT
graham In February 1974 the Tories won 37.9% of the vote no party in any constituent country in great Britain secured a majority of the votes and no country voted just labour. The Tories won 21 seats in Scotland in February 1974 Yes - but the will of England did not override the voters of Wales & Scotland at that election - indeed vice versa. The same was true of 1964. I might add that I had to put up with a lot of moaning from the local right-wingers during the New Labour years about how many Scots there were in the cabinet and how England was effectively under Scottish rule, Gordon Brown being especially loathed. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,692
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 9, 2023 16:05:41 GMT
(From the “ok it’s not brilliant but at least it’s something vaguely positive” dept.) “ Car production in the UK has increased for the eighth month in a row, with more than 91,000 vehicles built in October.
The total was almost a third higher than the same month last year, and the best October performance since 2019, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.
Production for the home and overseas markets grew by 23.9 per cent and 33.4 per cent respectively, with exports driving output.
More than four in five cars were shipped abroad, with export growth driven by a 58 per cent increase in sales to the EU, which remains the UK’s largest market by far — accounting for almost two-thirds of exports. Turkey grew almost fourfold to make it the third-largest market, above the US, China and Japan.
Production of battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hybrid vehicles increased, with combined output representing 40 per cent of all cars made in the month, a near-record high.
Mike Hawes, chief executive of the trade body, said: “These figures, coming on the back of a series of significant investment announcements, signpost a bright 2024 for the UK automotive sector. Government and industry are committing billions to transform the industry for a decarbonised future.”” Times Attachments:
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,362
|
Post by neilj on Dec 9, 2023 16:09:05 GMT
Just another day
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
|
Post by domjg on Dec 9, 2023 16:17:43 GMT
Because that would make the UK an even more attractive destination thus increasing the numbers even further and putting more and more strain on the housing shortage, NHS and infrastructure such as sewage etc. The housing shortage and collapsing NHS and infrastructure are in reality a direct result of government policy since 2010. So logically we should deport all Tory MPs to Rwanda instead (they would actually be able to take that number). Clearly the MPs wouldn't mind since they are all agreed it is a safe country. I am very enthusiastic about that idea. Would feel a bit sorry for the Rwandans though. Sending the whole party membership might be asking too much of them though alas. Would make this country a much safer place though. |
|
