Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2023 13:17:43 GMT
As to "sort of a party the one she had joined had become", wouldn't it be equally true to say that the party that she now intends to vote for has also gone through a significant change to become more like the one she originally joined?Given that she was a supporter , and possibly a member of the SDP as a young graduate , one can fully understand why the 2019 GE was not a point at which she was attracted to the LP. Perhaps she has been contemplating what outcomes may have resulted -as have many faced with the political options in that GE- from the Pandemic, Putin's invasion of Ukraine, Israel's response to October 7th, The resolution of the Northern Irish Protocol , and other matters ; under a Jeremy Corbyn Government. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 8, 2023 13:28:50 GMT
Remember that pledge of 50,000 more nurses, turns out 93% of them are immigrants. Nothing wrong with that, but it highlights hypocrisy in the immigration debate. We need these people and the Government knows we need these people
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 8, 2023 13:45:52 GMT
Or do they think that if they persist with the likes of Rwanda, that at some point the anti-Tory dam will burst and many of us will belatedly, be converted into voters for them? But if they abandon Rwanda, what alternative is there? Oops, sorry folks, we gotta keep them pesky refugees here? Wouldnt that be even worse? Ultimately admitting there is nothing they can do to stop refugees coming here? |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 8, 2023 13:53:07 GMT
Given that she was a supporter , and possibly a member of the SDP as a young graduate , one can fully understand why the 2019 GE was not a point at which she was attracted to the LP. Perhaps she has been contemplating what outcomes may have resulted -as have many faced with the political options in that GE- from the Pandemic, Putin's invasion of Ukraine, Israel's response to October 7th, The resolution of the Northern Irish Protocol , and other matters ; under a Jeremy Corbyn Government.
Given that timeline, it would seem strange to assume that Corbyn's leadership of the Labour Party 2015- 20, was a prospect that had remotely occurred to her, or anyone else, in 2005.
She is one of many, who could happily work within a moderate Labour or Tory Party. Those who have chosen a political career are often less concerned with which party to support, but with which party gives them the best opportunity to be elected.
Partisan portrayal of a gulf between political parties, comparable to the River Styx, may suit tribalists - but is nonsense. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2023 14:06:56 GMT
Given that timeline, it would seem strange to assume that Corbyn's leadership of the Labour Party 2015- 20, was a prospect that had remotely occurred to her, or anyone else, in 2005.
She is one of many, who could happily work within a moderate Labour or Tory Party. Those who have chosen a political career are often less concerned with which party to support, but with which party gives them the best opportunity to be elected.
Partisan portrayal of a gulf between political parties, comparable to the River Styx, may suit tribalists - but is nonsense.I wasnt suggesting that . To try once once more-Given her SDP tendencies , it doesnt surprise me that when she left the Conservatives and contemplated the 2019 GE, support for Corbyn's LP was not an attractive option for her. I agree very much with your last two paras. Though I think you underplay the power of a particular Party Leader at a particular point in time to create a considerable gulf. As you say those occasions are what "tribalists" dream of. |
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Post by mercian on Dec 8, 2023 14:13:43 GMT
"Therefore he is my king, and yours whether you like it or not." That rather depends upon what part of the UK one lives in. There is not one unified UK constitution. I accept that you enjoy doffing your cap to your German conquerors, but please understand there are parts of these islands where, according to their constitution, sovereignty remains the gift of the people. "Charles III (Charles Philip Arthur George; born 14 November 1948) is King of the United Kingdom and the 14 other Commonwealth realms" It's nothing to do with doffing my cap, it's simply recognising reality. Neither did I say anything about sovereignty. |
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Post by mercian on Dec 8, 2023 14:19:56 GMT
On the other hand, the Rwandan GDP has been boosted by around 3% (a quick search shows latest GDP for Rwanda was just over $11,000,000,000, or £8.8bn at current exchange rates) I suppose the Government could say it's reparations for the colonial era 😀 It was a German and then Belgian colony. EDIT: Beaten to it by johntel |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 8, 2023 14:25:12 GMT
colin
Thanks for the clarification. I agree that she wouldn't have voted Labour, while it was seen as being at another extreme. I wonder if she has hopes of becoming a Labour Minister at some future point - if Lab actually does move to supporting Rejoin? Otherwise, it might have been more likely for her to support LD.
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Post by mercian on Dec 8, 2023 14:29:58 GMT
There is a third solution. Unlike most other nations we do not take national interest into consideration when a foreign company takes over a British one. All the City wants is as much commission as possible. So stop the "everything is for sale " approach and keep far more companies under British ownership and paying taxes on their full profits in the UK. I seem to remember that during the privatisation era of the 1980s the government retained a 'golden share' in some companies in order to control who bought them. What happened to that? I haven't heard about it for decades. There is a big snag with your idea, which is that British-owned companies could move their nominal head office abroad and carry on in the same way - i.e. the head office could make charges to the UK operation in order to minimise its profits here. Boots did this some years ago and I expect plenty of others already have too. It's not an easy problem to solve. If it was I think someone would have done it by now. ------------- I've just had another idea - the government could buy shares in the big multinationals that pay little corporation tax and put the dividends into the tax pot. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Dec 8, 2023 14:33:34 GMT
"Most planning to vote for Reform UK wouldn’t switch to Conservatives even if their first choice party doesn’t stand in their constituency"
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Post by barbara on Dec 8, 2023 14:38:00 GMT
I found this recently in a charity bookshop. Written by an academic sociologist. I've only read the first introductory chapter so far but some real nuggets coming out including some fascinating statistics on membership, ages and other demographics back to the 50s. One claim is that the seeds of the Party's decline was sown by Thatcher's policy of selling off council houses. It was a huge vote winner at the time but that action, combined with her refusal to allow councils to build replacement houses, created the huge housing shortage we now have. Once the first generation of council house buyers, died or moved, the houses were sold to buy to let landlords and with no replacements, resulting in increasing numbers of people having to rent in the private sector at exorbitant rents or stay at home until their 30s and 40s to save for a deposit. There is no incentive therefore for these people to vote Tory as their policies have not benefited them. There's something oh so sweet about the Tories' darling taking short term electoral advantage over the long term sustainability of teh Tory vote. Lots more to come in this book I hope  |
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Post by Rafwan on Dec 8, 2023 15:27:30 GMT
oldnat“Partisan portrayal of a gulf between political parties, comparable to the River Styx, may suit tribalists - but is nonsense.” Don’t really understand why you would say this, ON. You see no difference between parties? They are all basically the same? You think it is OK for Anna Soubry to choose a party solely on the grounds of which will get her elected? Do you admire the ambition of David Cameron to be prime minister because he thought “he would be rather good at it”? There is certainly a gulf between this and what I think. But I see no Styx and, despite my avatar, I am no tribalist. The only purpose of a political party to is to put a brake on the corrupting influence the rich and powerful. To counter this, the rich and powerful have their own party. Called the Conservatives. Currently, this is outstandingly obvious.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 8, 2023 15:48:03 GMT
Interesting analysis of the house effects of different pollsters
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2023 16:03:49 GMT
colin
Thanks for the clarification. I agree that she wouldn't have voted Labour, while it was seen as being at another extreme. I wonder if she has hopes of becoming a Labour Minister at some future point - if Lab actually does move to supporting Rejoin? Otherwise, it might have been more likely for her to support LD. Yes I think she has that potential. I suppose the extent of Starmer's appeal to her own emotions depends on how she now feels about EU membership in the cold light of day. If she is a pragmatist & realist she might decide that things have moved on , on both sides of The Channel , and constructive relationships in areas of common interest are now a more sensible objective. In which case "making Brexit work" might be an attractive idea to her. If she is , like me, trying to divine what a Starmer administration would actually be like, then Rachel Reeves must be a constant source of comfort. Today in your neck of the woods, she is setting out her plans to "unleash the full potential of the financial services sector"-helped by assorted Bankers and Financiers of note :- www.ft.com/content/b8dda894-cdd1-4015-963f-07330ab8a15dA location presumably chosen deliberately to contrast with the verdict of the Commons Treasury Committee on Hunt's " Edinburgh Reforms". Their verdict is " A Damp Squib". All of this positioning is very much tuned to a Centrist wavelength-at least on the economic front. If Starmer can stay at or near the political centre in office whilst achieving some successful outcomes , I think he stands a chance of giving Centreist Tory politicians and wannabes nothing to fight. In which event Soubry and others may decide-well lets join them. Having said all this Powell's dictum about political careers dooms most voters to ultimate disappointment. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 8, 2023 16:09:34 GMT
"Home Office confirms Rwanda payments still being made under 'ministerial direction' because officials not sure they're value for money"
Only quibble is I expect they are sure it's not value for money
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 8, 2023 16:11:32 GMT
We Think
'A Tory backlash over #Rwanda, Boris’s missing WhatsApps from the #Covid Inquiry, and ministerial resignations. It’s been another wild week. Upshot = #Labour lead is up four to 20.
🔴 Lab 45% (+1)
🔵 Con 25% (-3)
🟠 LD 11% (+2)
⚪ Ref 9% (+1)
🟢 Green 5% (-1)
🟡 SNP 2% (-1)'
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Post by Mark on Dec 8, 2023 16:12:02 GMT
A different take on Starmer and Thatcher by Jonathan Calder
A Guardian article from this summer remembered the summer of 1983:
That same month, a new government initiative was rolled out nationwide. The Enterprise Allowance Scheme was the brainchild of a Treasury civil servant called Peter Kemp and had been trialled over the previous two years.
Despite its bland name, it was a daring concept. If citizens wanted to set up a small business, the government would guarantee an income of £40 a week for up to 12 months, and an escape from dole checkups.
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There was one unlikely side-effect, almost certainly unplanned by Treasury mandarins – the birth of an entire generation of British creatives. Successful EAS alumni included Alan McGee of Creation Records, Laurence Bell of Domino, and Julian Dunkerton, who founded Superdry; musicians such as Jarvis Cocker and Shaun Ryder; artists including Tracey Emin, Jeremy Deller and Edmund de Waal.
Forty years after the scheme was rolled out, it’s a faintly astonishing thought: would Britpop and the YBAs have happened without a hardline Conservative government? Was Thatcherism, widely detested by the arts establishment, actually good for culture? When I put these questions to the artist Rachel Whiteread, she chuckles. “Yeah, it’s a little bit strange, the whole thing. I don’t think they had a clue what would happen.”
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In some ways, it even foreshadows a social welfare concept that has grown increasingly fashionable in recent years: universal basic income. The strangest paradox of all might be that Thatcher, who believed in small government with missionary zeal, created a scheme that quietly did the opposite, handing out cash with very few strings attached. “That’s something we can learn from today,” Willetts says.
Sometimes it is only much later that people realise the consequences of their decisions; I don't know if Thatcher ever did. While I'm sure that the Enterprise Allowance certainly helped some labels and artists that went on to bigger things (and is one of the few things that Thatcher did that I think was good), it is far from the whole picture. There were many bedroom indie labels that didn't take it up, such as The Subway Organisation (who gave us early releases from The Soup Dragons & Pop Will Eat Itself, FlimFlam (The Beloved), Gift Records (Pulp) along with many others that weren't commercially successful. Back then, what was a big boost, was the indie chart on the telly, John Peel on the radio, Snub TV, The Tube etc. etc. I suspect that Alan McGee would have set up a record label even if the Enterprise Allowance hadn't existed. Much of the early years of Creation saw releases that had little or no chance of mainstream success. (Short playlist below of some early Creation classics). Had you played such releases tolo a tory minister at te time as an example of what the Enterprise Allowance was funding, they would have been horrified! What basically happened was a fair few that did t as a hobby or a labour of love took the cash and said "thank you very much". That said, it was a genuine boon for creative types, just as a Universal Basic Income would be. I fully support both. The Revolving Paint Dream - Flowers In The Sky : www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDXOLilMA3sMy Bloody Valentime - Feed Me With Your Kiss : www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rxE0Mr_U8UThe Pastels - Stay With Me Till Morning : www.youtube.com/watch?v=r63N1phPO5E |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 8, 2023 16:16:04 GMT
oldnat “Partisan portrayal of a gulf between political parties, comparable to the River Styx, may suit tribalists - but is nonsense.” Don’t really understand why you would say this, ON. You see no difference between parties? They are all basically the same? You think it is OK for Anna Soubry to choose a party solely on the grounds of which will get her elected? Do you admire the ambition of David Cameron to be prime minister because he thought “he would be rather good at it”? There is certainly a gulf between this and what I think. But I see no Styx and, despite my avatar, I am no tribalist. The only purpose of a political party to is to put a brake on the corrupting influence the rich and powerful. To counter this, the rich and powerful have their own party. Called the Conservatives. Currently, this is outstandingly obvious. he would say that at least in part because it's in his ideological interest to try to reduce enthusiasm for Labour with the aim of them being less likely both to form a UK government and to take seats from the SNP in Scotland. Continued tory govt in England is in the best interest of those enthusiastic for Scottish independence. The rest of us don't matter. |
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Post by James E on Dec 8, 2023 16:37:27 GMT
We Think 'A Tory backlash over #Rwanda, Boris’s missing WhatsApps from the #Covid Inquiry, and ministerial resignations. It’s been another wild week. Upshot = #Labour lead is up four to 20. 🔴 Lab 45% (+1) 🔵 Con 25% (-3) 🟠 LD 11% (+2) ⚪ Ref 9% (+1) 🟢 Green 5% (-1) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)' We Think's previous 10 polls showed an average Labour lead of 19%, so this is probably largely just a reversion to the norm. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 8, 2023 16:43:39 GMT
We Think 'A Tory backlash over #Rwanda, Boris’s missing WhatsApps from the #Covid Inquiry, and ministerial resignations. It’s been another wild week. Upshot = #Labour lead is up four to 20. 🔴 Lab 45% (+1) 🔵 Con 25% (-3) 🟠 LD 11% (+2) ⚪ Ref 9% (+1) 🟢 Green 5% (-1) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)' We Think's previous 10 polls showed an average Labour lead of 19%, so this is probably largely just a reversion to the norm. Agree and it's been a similar story for most if not all polls in the last 18 months Over a week or two polls may go up and down a little, but the Labour lead shows no sign of reducing to any significant extent over time |
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Post by barbara on Dec 8, 2023 16:44:13 GMT
I read Conservative Home regularly and it appears that Trevor is posting there under the disguised name of Trevor Warne.  EDIT- having read a bit more his opinions expressed on there are far more government defending and unequivocally Tory supporting then they are on here. So perhaps the LOC contingent on UKPR2 constrains him somewhat. Over there he is totally supporting the government's position on Rwanda. |
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Post by alec on Dec 8, 2023 16:46:11 GMT
I saw this, and thought of you (lot):
"A mean value usually has STD (standard deviation).
A mean partner occasionally has STD (sexually transmitted disease)."
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 8, 2023 16:47:02 GMT
Blimey were not even paying reparations to the right people Despite that Rwanda became a member of the Commonwealth. Not sure how that happened, but it's obviously proved a good move financially. Mozambique is in the Commonwealth and they were a Portuguese colony. |
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Post by EmCat on Dec 8, 2023 16:49:15 GMT
There is a third solution. Unlike most other nations we do not take national interest into consideration when a foreign company takes over a British one. All the City wants is as much commission as possible. So stop the "everything is for sale " approach and keep far more companies under British ownership and paying taxes on their full profits in the UK. I seem to remember that during the privatisation era of the 1980s the government retained a 'golden share' in some companies in order to control who bought them. What happened to that? I haven't heard about it for decades. ------------- I've just had another idea - the government could buy shares in the big multinationals that pay little corporation tax and put the dividends into the tax pot. While that sounds like an interesting idea, the threat of that (from other governments coming up with the same idea) might be why share buybacks seem to be de rigeur at the moment. Why risk waking up one day to find that your conglomerate has been effectively nationalised (when they bought a few more % to tip them over a threshold), when you can own all your own shares. |
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Post by alec on Dec 8, 2023 16:50:50 GMT
I also have to post this, which is really quite bizarre - nhsproviders.org/nhs-winter-watch-202324/week-1To keep us informed, NHSE tells us how many beds are occupied with flu, RSV, and diarrhoea and vomiting. No mention at all of Covid 19, despite the fact that there were twice the number of beds occupied by patients with covid as the primary reason than the other three factors combined. It's remarkable the lengths NHS managers are going to to hide the actual ongoing impact of covid. (Overall, there were 10 times more covid beds than flu beds in this period.) "Don't mention the 'C' word!. I did once, but I think I got away with it".  |
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 8, 2023 16:50:58 GMT
We Think 'A Tory backlash over #Rwanda, Boris’s missing WhatsApps from the #Covid Inquiry, and ministerial resignations. It’s been another wild week. Upshot = #Labour lead is up four to 20. 🔴 Lab 45% (+1) 🔵 Con 25% (-3) 🟠 LD 11% (+2) ⚪ Ref 9% (+1) 🟢 Green 5% (-1) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)' We think this a very good poll, don't we? That said, are they thinking what we're thinking? These may be questions for the non tribalist and centrist thinkers to ponder. I have a feeling it may all end in tears, like most political careers do. As Lucy Powell once said, apparently. Very true. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 8, 2023 16:53:07 GMT
I read Conservative Home regularly and it appears that Trevor is posting there under the disguised name of Trevor Warne. I admire your bravery. |
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Post by mercian on Dec 8, 2023 16:55:55 GMT
I suspect that Alan McGee would have set up a record label even if the Enterprise Allowance hadn't existed. ... Had you played such releases tolo a tory minister at te time as an example of what the Enterprise Allowance was funding, they would have been horrified! I do find it amusing that people live in a fantasy world of their imaginings. I suppose it's to do with being left wing - idealists rather than pragmatists. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 8, 2023 16:58:25 GMT
I read Conservative Home regularly and it appears that Trevor is posting there under the disguised name of Trevor Warne. Bloody tribalist, activista and partisan. This site doesn't need posters like that. We need free thinkers unencumbered by party political biases. I try to set an example. Colin does too but not many more. |
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Post by barbara on Dec 8, 2023 16:59:21 GMT
I read Conservative Home regularly and it appears that Trevor is posting there under the disguised name of Trevor Warne. I admire your bravery. I like to see how bats**t the Tory Party membership are - and there are plenty of those. But also many voices despairing of the position the party has put itself in - and pleading for a GE to put it out of its misery. |
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