neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 4, 2023 9:33:47 GMT
An interesting read from the Resolution Foundation
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Post by somerjohn on Dec 4, 2023 9:48:40 GMT
Johntel: "I'm sure if you twisted Boris' arm he'd give it a go. It's actually probably their best chance to minimise the scale of the defeat. "
As domjg has pointed out, Johnson is surely too much of a busted flush to minimise defeat. And a further bout of musical chairs at the top could only emphasise the absurdity of what's going on with our government. Even diehard Tories would surely get the deckchair-rearranging analogy.
Actually, the only leader who probably could shake things up would be Farage, if they could engineer it. He'd bring most of the Refuk VI with him, but more importantly, he'd be a charismatic figure in a field of grey men.
There's a politically disengaged cohort that was sufficiently susceptible to plausible lies and persuasive slogans to vote for brexit. I suspect the pied piper could once again lead them (or those of them still with us) to the polling booth.
English exceptionalists will say "it couldn't happen here", but I fear there are too many recent examples of electorates falling for national populist 'saviours' to say we couldn't follow down that well-trodden path.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 4, 2023 9:51:38 GMT
The polling news for Sunak and the tories is getting even worse
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 4, 2023 10:04:39 GMT
Johntel: "I'm sure if you twisted Boris' arm he'd give it a go. It's actually probably their best chance to minimise the scale of the defeat. "As domjg has pointed out, Johnson is surely too much of a busted flush to minimise defeat. And a further bout of musical chairs at the top could only emphasise the absurdity of what's going on with our government. Even diehard Tories would surely get the deckchair-rearranging analogy. Actually, the only leader who probably could shake things up would be Farage, if they could engineer it. He'd bring most of the Refuk VI with him, but more importantly, he'd be a charismatic figure in a field of grey men. There's a politically disengaged cohort that was sufficiently susceptible to plausible lies and persuasive slogans to vote for brexit. I suspect the pied piper could once again lead them (or those of them still with us) to the polling booth. English exceptionalists will say "it couldn't happen here", but I fear there are too many recent examples of electorates falling for national populist 'saviours' to say we couldn't follow down that well-trodden path. Very true but the one and only saving grace of FPTP as a voting system is that it makes the tipping point for significant parliamentary representation, and therefore political leverage, very high for smaller more extreme parties. That's not an argument for maintaining FPTP, by the way, but a sort of grudging acceptance that it has one or two unintended benefits!
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Post by somerjohn on Dec 4, 2023 10:20:22 GMT
CB11: "Very true but the one and only saving grace of FPTP as a voting system is that it makes the tipping point for significant parliamentary representation, and therefore political leverage, very high for smaller more extreme parties."
That would be true for a Farage-led Refuk, although as I wrote a while ago, I don't discount the possibility of a Canada-style collapse of the Tory vote and its wholesale transfer to RUK. At which point, the FPTP see-saw would tip in RUK's favour.
But what I was suggesting above was an alternative scenario in which Farage becomes leader of the Tories. A quick peerage, secondment to a cabinet position, then after a while Sunak resigns and ... Bingo!
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Post by mercian on Dec 4, 2023 10:55:26 GMT
And the story goes on with Thatcher. She is almost the go to loathing totem pole for proving one's left wing credentials. I loathe and detest her more than you. No you don't, I loathe and detest her even more. Well, probably Blair and Starmer maybe. They are even better credential proving punchbags. ... Starmer is not admiring her legacy and supporting what she did, I don't think. He's expressing a view that I happen to share. Thatcher came in promising change and delivered it. He wants to do the same but in different ways. He wants to make a difference not just serve time and hold office. That's all he seemed to be saying to me, but I think he's probably damned if he does and damned if he doesn't in some quarters. P.S. And yes, it probably was a deliberate and calculated ploy to write the comments about Thatcher in the Daily Telegraph. Again, I don't see that as necessarily a bad thing for a Labour leader to be doing. Telegraph readers aren't beyond the pale nor are they "the sort of voters Labour doesn't want ". Seems to me you should want everyone's vote in politics. Totally agree with all that. Who was it said "Politics is the art of the possible"? Left-wing purists seem to want to turn politics into a tribal game and would rather lose and sulk than compromise. Anyone who doesn't totally agree with them is an enemy. I didn't agree with everything that Mrs Thatcher did, or at least the way it was implemented but there is no doubt that she was a towering figure who will be remembered long after most post-war PMs. It was interesting that Starmer mentioned Attlee, Thatcher and Blair as great leaders and implied that he wanted to show the same sort of leadership, as though he's hoping to shine in their reflected glory. His current image is almost the opposite - a boring cardboard cutout with no particular vision of his own. It could be that he is being very clever so as not to frighten the horses and turns out to be a great leader. We'll have to wait and see (if he wins). I'd certainly prefer him to most Labour leaders of my time.
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Post by mercian on Dec 4, 2023 11:01:50 GMT
Very true but the one and only saving grace of FPTP as a voting system is that it makes the tipping point for significant parliamentary representation, and therefore political leverage, very high for smaller more extreme parties. Not impossible though. Labour did it, though arguably it took WWI to make it possible.
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Post by isa on Dec 4, 2023 11:14:18 GMT
Looking towards the next year I cannot see much chance of the tories turning it around With winter we are almost certain to see another NHS winter crisis. Then there is the chance of floods and the Government's response, never good They will have a chance with the budget in April to turn things around, but can't see it Rwanda will grind on and the Government will continue to fail to deliver on it The May local elections are likely to be particularly difficult for the tories, as the last time they were contested in May 2021 it was a fairly good result for the tories It seems to me there is no light on the horizon for the tories and barring a very big external event they are going to lose and lose big You make some very valid points there, neilj . One thing I would add is energy costs. Whilst the energy cap is lower this year, (although set to rise again in the new year, I believe), people are not going to receive a payment of £400, (paid at £67 per month), as they did last winter. Having just read the meter following the recent brief cold spell, I was surprised at how high usage had been. Thankfully, my account is comfortably in credit at present, but many more months like the last is soon going to make a big hole in that. I suspect that for many less fortunate people, who don't have the luxury of a credit 'cushion', and with no £67 per month coming in to help, the cost of living crisis is about to rise up the agenda once again (as if it ever went away).
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Post by johntel on Dec 4, 2023 11:14:25 GMT
I'm sure if you twisted Boris' arm he'd give it a go. It's actually probably their best chance to minimise the scale of the defeat. In writing that you're tacitly admitting that you yourself have been, to some extent, taken in by Johnson bluster in that you recognise some kind of appeal. I just don't get it, why would anyone, now especially, think that he would have any remaining appeal anywhere? And why would anyone with half a brain ever have been taken in? The red wallers looking for 'levelling up' know now his promises were empty, surely they're not that daft to be taken in again? To trade you a Bandit quote, 'It's just not how the world works kiddo'. domjg lol, I was just just stating my view of Johnson's popularity amongst potential Tory voters, not my own opinion of him. No need to insult me and a large proportion of the electorate. Edit: yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/conservative-politicians/allPPS At least you recognised me
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Post by graham on Dec 4, 2023 11:14:27 GMT
Much the same can be said of millions of German voters who supported Hitler and the NSDAP at two Reichstag elections in 1932 and the vaguely last free election held in March 1933. Morever, had there been open elections under the Third Reich there is little doubt Hitler won have won comfortably. You’re obsessed. Obsessed with historical accuracy which others choose to ignore!
Perhaps what we need now is another article by Starmer in a Tory newspaper giving some credit to Adolf Hitler. After all he certainly is well remembered and produced quite a change in World politics. He was't all bad - building the Autobahns and slashing unemployment rates in Germany pretty quickly. No need to agree with everything he did.
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Post by isa on Dec 4, 2023 11:26:28 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2023 11:31:38 GMT
To be honest whether Starmer approved of anything the wicked witch of Grantham ever did is only of interest to the far left, who think he's a Tory anyway. I don't think John McTernan would be classed as "far left".
"Labour is in danger of misreading the mood of voters – because it is listening to the wrong ones. This is the second, and really bad, reason for Starmer’s odd attempt to reassure the rusted-on Tory voters who read the Sunday Telegraph that he can say something nice about Thatcher.
It happened because Starmer is listening to focus groups of swing voters. But the brutal truth is that there are no swing voters left – when support for the Tory party has fallen to 25%, there is no longer a pond to fish in. You’re convening groups of voters who are undecided whether to vote Tory, stay at home or opt for Nigel Farage and the Reform party. Sure they have views on what would make them listen to Labour – but they will never switch.
The priority for Starmer is to talk to the 45% of the voters he has won over and to reassure them that he is the change they want to see in the world of British politics."
" “No complacency” is a crucial position for any political party. But the most dangerous complacency of all is to take your own voters for granted. None of the voters who are currently supporting Labour are wavering because they are worried that Starmer is insufficiently respectful of Margaret Thatcher. They want the Tories out. Labour needs to make that its rallying cry."
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 4, 2023 11:44:30 GMT
The pandemic death toll continues - www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(23)00221-1/fulltextExcess deaths >44,000 in 2022, +7.2%, and accelerating into the first half of 2023, with 28,000 excess deaths in the six months to end June, +8.6%. The immoral argument that these appalling figures don't matter because they are 'only' the old and vulnerable is logically untenable, as the highest rates of excess deaths are in the 50 - 64 yo cohort (+15%) and the 25 - 49yos (+11%). In context, the annual excess deaths is equivalent to a Barrow-in-Furness or a Bexhill-on-Sea every year, with many of these younger, working age adults. The pattern of excess deaths by cause also points towards the known post infection pathology of covid, with greatly exacerbated cardiovascular deaths, plus high respiratory infection excesses. Do your best to avoid catching covid, and you'll reduce your chances of being one of these terrible statistics. The 100 year minimum of deaths in the UK came about 2011, which interestingly coincides with the end of the labour administration. The peak of deaths before that came in 1976, from where it fell, then fell twice as fast once labour took over. Then as I say rising from about 550,000 a year to 650,000 in 2020, having cimbed to 600,000 again under con before the arrival of covid. Its now back about 580,000 for 2022. (note those figures are from two different sources so may not exactly align. www.statista.com/statistics/281488/number-of-deaths-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/ www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathregistrationsummarystatisticsenglandandwales/2022 ) The NHS is currently in a state of collapse. Its very clear the conservative change of funding caused an immediate turnaround from falling to rising death rates (switched from falling 5000 each year to rising 5000 each year approx.) So up to 2020 that would be about 250,000 extra deaths due to conservative cuts. Assuming that funding has not improved in real terms since 2020, taking into account the extra costs of managing covid for which extra funding was provided and ssuming these cancel out, then the sum of extra deaths due to con underfunding must by now exceed the deaths from covid. Which makes con claims during the epidemic that cost is no object in saving lives a very sick joke.
If we take the 2019 figure which was actually 605,000 with less rounding, and then add on the trend growth under con of 5000 a year for 20,21,22, then we would expect the total to have risen to 620,00 in the last full year 22 and 625,000 in 23 nearly over.
The lancet article argues deaths have risen 44,000 compared to the 5 year average before 2020. So I guess thats 2014-2019, average mid 2016, and then they compare this to 22. Simply on trend we would expect 22 to have another 5 years worth of growth of deaths, or 25,000. So the real discrepancy is only 20,000. In 2022 50,000 people are recorded as dying from covid directly.
So...actually there is a shortfall of deaths compared to trend of about 30,000 people. The upshot of the covid epidemic was 30,000 fewer people dying from other reasons in 2022. The implication would seem to be that actually the deaths directly atributed to covid need to be offset by deaths from other causes they have prevented. Then the official total of 230,000 covid deaths should be reduced by...somewhere between 50,000 and 100,000?, because those are people who had been destined to die soon anyway?
Now its perfectly valid to analyses what age groups are most affected and which diseases are accounting for most extra deaths, but there isnt evidence covid has caused a rise in deaths attributed to other causes, because actually considereing the number officially attributed to covid, there are fewer other deaths.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 4, 2023 11:54:06 GMT
Having just read the meter following the recent brief cold spell, I was surprised at how high usage had been. Thankfully, my account is comfortably in credit at present,. Thankfully? You are pleased to have given the energy companies an interest free loan of your money for six months? Surely thats really another scam fleecing customers?
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 4, 2023 12:03:30 GMT
Merry Christmas
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 4, 2023 12:14:40 GMT
As it stands at the moment with potential leadership debates in the offing we have in the left corner Keir Starmer , charisma vacuum and not exactly the life and soul of the party, but well meaning in a sort of earnest train spotter way. In the right corner Sunakered Cheshire cat smirk on short trousered legs, no character no honesty, big wallet.
In the middle Ed Davey , comes across as quite a nice bloke in a sort of bumbling uncle way.
Now this isn't supposed to be an in depth analysis of policy but given for much of the population this will be the one time every five years or so that they give the tiniest remotest shit about politics and politicians and I wouldn't be surprised to see Ed Davey benefiting from this.
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 4, 2023 12:22:38 GMT
Obsessed with historical accuracy which others choose to ignore!
Perhaps what we need now is another article by Starmer in a Tory newspaper giving some credit to Adolf Hitler. After all he certainly is well remembered and produced quite a change in World politics. He was't all bad - building the Autobahns and slashing unemployment rates in Germany pretty quickly. No need to agree with everything he did.
Yes, you're quite to upbraid me on my historical ignorance. My few words recognising Thatcher's political significance and success in introducing lasting change did rather overlook her attempts to exterminate a race and to militarily annexe most of Europe. Your parallel with Hitler is an entirely accurate and appropriate one and belongs in any sensible discussion about Thatcher's record and legacy.
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Post by thylacine on Dec 4, 2023 12:22:50 GMT
As it stands at the moment with potential leadership debates in the offing we have in the left corner Keir Starmer , charisma vacuum and not exactly the life and soul of the party, but well meaning in a sort of earnest train spotter way. In the right corner Sunakered Cheshire cat smirk on short trousered legs, no character no honesty, big wallet. In the middle Ed Davey , comes across as quite a nice bloke in a sort of bumbling uncle way. Now this isn't supposed to be an in depth analysis of policy but given for much of the population this will be the one time every five years or so that they give the tiniest remotest shit about politics and politicians and I wouldn't be surprised to see Ed Davey benefiting from this. Shame about his political legacy though!
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Dec 4, 2023 12:33:01 GMT
As it stands at the moment with potential leadership debates in the offing we have in the left corner Keir Starmer , charisma vacuum and not exactly the life and soul of the party, but well meaning in a sort of earnest train spotter way. In the right corner Sunakered Cheshire cat smirk on short trousered legs, no character no honesty, big wallet. In the middle Ed Davey , comes across as quite a nice bloke in a sort of bumbling uncle way. Now this isn't supposed to be an in depth analysis of policy but given for much of the population this will be the one time every five years or so that they give the tiniest remotest shit about politics and politicians and I wouldn't be surprised to see Ed Davey benefiting from this. Sorry steve but Davey is no more charismatic than Starmer or Sunak.
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Post by alec on Dec 4, 2023 12:39:31 GMT
Yes, yes, yes Danny, all very clever. Now go away and explain how the evil Tories and the collapse of the NHS has caused the biggest fall in global life expectancy rates since the UN started monitoring longevity in 1950? www.contagionlive.com/view/first-study-to-estimate-life-expectancy-after-covid-19-pandemic-finds-2-years-lostGlobally, live expectancy has fallen by 2 years. "The coronavirus pandemic was the first time yearly life expectancy declined for more than 2 years in at least 50 countries." Even at the height of the AIDS pandemic life expectancy didn't fall, and the continued and accelerating excess deaths suggest we've got a long way to go on this.
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Post by graham on Dec 4, 2023 12:39:37 GMT
Obsessed with historical accuracy which others choose to ignore!
Perhaps what we need now is another article by Starmer in a Tory newspaper giving some credit to Adolf Hitler. After all he certainly is well remembered and produced quite a change in World politics. He was't all bad - building the Autobahns and slashing unemployment rates in Germany pretty quickly. No need to agree with everything he did.
Yes, you're quite to upbraid me on my historical ignorance. My few words recognising Thatcher's political significance and success in introducing lasting change did rather overlook her attempts to exterminate a race and to militarily annexe most of Europe. Your parallel with Hitler is an entirely accurate and appropriate one and belongs in any sensible discussion about Thatcher's record and legacy. I did not suggest that they had made the same mistakes - simply that both might receive credit for particular achievements. I do, however, suggest that Hitler would have heartily endorsed Thatcher's decision to have tea with General Pinochet in the late 1990s - long after the scale of the latter's atrocities had been revealed.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Dec 4, 2023 12:40:10 GMT
Owen Jones 'praising' Thatcher in much the same way as Starmer did www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/27/socialism-jeremy-corbyn-labour-conference'Like Attlee and Thatcher before him, Corbyn will completely transform Britain Clement Attlee, Margaret Thatcher, Jeremy Corbyn. The first two led transformative governments that established a new political settlement in Britain: and make no mistake, the Corbyn project’s aspirations are no less ambitious'
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Post by isa on Dec 4, 2023 12:48:00 GMT
Having just read the meter following the recent brief cold spell, I was surprised at how high usage had been. Thankfully, my account is comfortably in credit at present,. Thankfully? You are pleased to have given the energy companies an interest free loan of your money for six months? Surely thats really another scam fleecing customers? That makes it sound like I'm haemorrhaging wheelbarrows full of cash to the energy providers. I'm not. If the amount of my (now declining) credit balance were invested in a savings account, even at current rates, six months interest would be less than a tenner. For the peace of mind of knowing that there is sufficient in the pot to meet the higher bills likely over the coming months without too much concern, I'm prepared to accept that.
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Post by graham on Dec 4, 2023 12:52:19 GMT
As it stands at the moment with potential leadership debates in the offing we have in the left corner Keir Starmer , charisma vacuum and not exactly the life and soul of the party, but well meaning in a sort of earnest train spotter way. In the right corner Sunakered Cheshire cat smirk on short trousered legs, no character no honesty, big wallet. In the middle Ed Davey , comes across as quite a nice bloke in a sort of bumbling uncle way. Now this isn't supposed to be an in depth analysis of policy but given for much of the population this will be the one time every five years or so that they give the tiniest remotest shit about politics and politicians and I wouldn't be surprised to see Ed Davey benefiting from this. I hope we have no debates at all, but if they happen limit the main event to Sunak and Starmer. Minor parties might have their own separate debate.
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Post by wb61 on Dec 4, 2023 13:06:10 GMT
The argument on the Starmer/Thatcher position appears to me to be entirely sterile. I begin by saying that Thatcher is the only politician for whom I still retain a visceral emotional response of revulsion. I doubt if anyone with a Trade Union and Labour Party background from South Wales who witnessed the deliberate destruction of the steel and coal industries could feel any different. In addition I am no Starmer fan by any means but it seems to me the political intent to convert Tories to vote Labour is obvious and one that any leader will attempt. However, the article portrayed no policy intentions, and was ambiguous in its praise of Thatcher and therefore of no particular consequence. The mention of her changing the UK is historically accurate, it does not signify approval, no more than mention of Atlee implies approval of e.g. Credit Control as a means of reducing demand to control inflation.
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 4, 2023 13:09:27 GMT
CB11: "Very true but the one and only saving grace of FPTP as a voting system is that it makes the tipping point for significant parliamentary representation, and therefore political leverage, very high for smaller more extreme parties."That would be true for a Farage-led Refuk, although as I wrote a while ago, I don't discount the possibility of a Canada-style collapse of the Tory vote and its wholesale transfer to RUK. At which point, the FPTP see-saw would tip in RUK's favour. But what I was suggesting above was an alternative scenario in which Farage becomes leader of the Tories. A quick peerage, secondment to a cabinet position, then after a while Sunak resigns and ... Bingo! A Peer as a Prime Minister would be reversing all the gains of the 20th Century. It's already problematic for any Cabinet position.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 4, 2023 13:14:06 GMT
Recep Tayyip Erdogan President of Turkey calling for Benjamin Netanyahu to be charged with war crimes.
War criminal Erdogan knows another war criminal when he sees one.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Dec 4, 2023 13:29:00 GMT
Recep Tayyip Erdogan President of Turkey calling for Benjamin Netanyahu to be charged with war crimes. War criminal Erdogan knows another war criminal when he sees one. True but it's hard to disagree. The ICC's credibility is at stake if it's seen as selective. Indict the Hamas leadership and Netanyahu at the same time. Can't reasonably have one without the other.
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Post by wb61 on Dec 4, 2023 13:35:02 GMT
The ICC's credibility is at stake if it's seen as selective. Indict the Hamas leadership and Netanyahu at the same time. Can't reasonably have one without the other. Whilst Palestine is a signatory to the ICC Israel is not, neither is the USA. Whilst having moral force as a body enforcing international law the ICC is limited to enforcing against those who are signatories.
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Post by jimjam on Dec 4, 2023 13:45:08 GMT
Labour Party HQ has put local parties etc on alert for possible GE in May.
Cant see it myself but a scenario where a challenger to Sunak early in the new year, promises a 'growth' budget (or some other euphemism for pre-election) followed by a May GE is plausible.
This would allow the new PM to carry any momentum through the contest in to a GE.
Could limit losses perhaps but I still reckon October/November (depending on conference judgement) highly probable.
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